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DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Assessment of Residential Air-to-Water Heat Pumps Coupled with Cooling Thermal Storage

This study explored the performance and operating cost viability of air-to-water heat pumps (AWHPs) coupled with thermal energy storage (TES) in efficient new residential construction. AWHPs are an emerging technology in this country, but offer promise in terms of high efficiency, fully contained and factory charged outdoor refrigeration system, and hydronic delivery capabilities, which facilitates zoning, ducts in conditioned space, and TES integration for summer load-shifting. Although this AWHP+TES strategy is not yet mainstream, the authors feel that in ten years as decarbonization efforts proceed and TOU rates become more common, strategies such as this will be more accessible. Validated EnergyPlus simulation models were developed based on detailed monitoring data collected over several years at Pacific Gas and Electric's CVRH laboratory test homes located in Stockton, California. One of the CVRH test homes (1,962 ft 2 two-story) had been testing various AWHP systems and configurations over the past six years. The validated model was then updated with high efficiency IECC ZERH envelope and component requirements for climate zones 1-5, including ducts in conditioned space thermal distribution. Simulations were completed for the 1,962 ft 2 home in each climate zone for a minimum efficiency ASHP, an AWHP coupled with a fan coil, and an AWHP coupled with TES sized to eliminate summer on-peak compressor operation. To maintain consistency in reporting energy use estimates, all cases were run with a similar indoor thermostat control strategy to pre-cool the house below the nominal 76 degrees Fahrenheit set point prior to the on-peak period and float slightly above the set point during the peak period. The AWHP+TES configuration was controlled to alternately condition the indoor space or to charge the TES tanks prior to the beginning of the on-peak. Three composite TOU rates were developed based on existing TOU rates across the U.S. to provide differing economic scenarios to evaluate customer bill impacts throughout the summer. Two of the TOU rates had short three-hour peak periods, while the third rate had a longer seven-hour duration peak period. AWHP modeling projections were based on the observed field performance of the Chiltrix CX34 variable speed unit. Other products on the market or entering the market in the near term would likely perform differently.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying subsurface parameter and transport uncertainty using surrogate modelling and environmental tracers

Here, we combine physics-based groundwater reactive transport modelling with machine-learning techniques to quantify hydrogeological model and solute transport predictive uncertainties. We train an artificial neural network (ANN) on a dataset of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations generated using a high-fidelity groundwater reactive transport model. Using the trained ANN as a surrogate model to reproduce the input–output response of the high-fidelity reactive transport model, we quantify the posterior distributions of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic forcing conditions using Markov chain Monte Carlo calibration against field observations of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations. We demonstrate the methodology with a model application that predicts Chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) solute transport at a contaminated field site in Wyoming, United States. Our results show that including 3 H observations in the calibration dataset reduced the uncertainty in the estimated permeability field and infiltration rates, compared to calibration against hydraulic heads alone. However, predictive uncertainty quantification shows that CFC-12 transport predictions conditioned to the parameter posterior distributions cannot reproduce the field measurements. We found that calibrating the model to hydraulic head and 3 H observations results in groundwater mean ages that are too large to explain the observed CFC-12 concentrations. The coupling of the physics-based reactive transport model with the machine-learning surrogate model allows us to efficiently quantify model parameter and predictive uncertainties, which is typically computationally intractable using reactive transport models alone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A comparative analysis of residual stresses from friction stir processing of aluminum cast 380 and wrought 7075 alloy sheets: experimental characterization and modeling

Residual stresses are often overlooked in friction stir processing (FSP), but their significant impact on fatigue performance necessitates their consideration in optimizing processing parameters. The first step in this effort is understanding how process conditions influence residual stress distributions, especially across different alloys. This study focuses on determining and explaining the through-thickness residual stress variations and the effect of process temperature on the residual stress magnitude in wrought AA7075 and cast AA380.0 alloys. Additionally, for AA380.0, the impact of a second FSP pass was investigated. To achieve this, hole-drilling electronic speckle pattern interferometry (ESPI) and the thermal pseudo-mechanical (TPM) model within finite element analysis were employed to study the 3D distributions of in-plane residual stresses in processed samples under various conditions. A key finding was the varying impact of process temperatures on residual stress magnitudes. Higher process temperatures reduced stresses in AA380.0 but increased them in AA7075. Additionally, the through-thickness stress distributions differed between the two alloys. Further analysis revealed that yield stresses are crucial in explaining these phenomena and the effects of additional FSP passes. Further, this fundamental understanding will be vital in guiding the efforts to mitigate residual stresses and assess their impact on the performance of FSP aluminum alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing the Effect of Electrode Thermodynamics on Reaction Heterogeneity in Thick Battery Electrodes

Thick electrodes present a viable strategy for enhancing energy density and reducing manufacturing costs of lithium-ion batteries. However, reaction heterogeneity during cycling compromises their rate capability and cycle life. While this nonuniformity is commonly attributed to sluggish charge transport, it is demonstrated here that the thermodynamic properties of the electrode material play an equally critical role. Through combined X-ray fluorescence microscopy and absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy, reaction distributions in LiFePO 4 (LFP) and LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC) thick electrodes with matched porosity and tortuosity are compared. LFP electrodes develop pronounced depth-oriented state-of-charge (SOC) gradients that worsen with increasing discharge rates, whereas NMC maintains much more uniform SOC distributions under such conditions. This difference originates from their distinct SOC dependence of equilibrium potentials and is quantifiable through a dimensionless “reaction uniformity” number. Intriguingly, LFP thick electrodes also exhibit lateral SOC variations that strengthen during slow discharge. In conclusion, the enhanced reaction uniformity in NMC correlates with better active material utilization and slower capacity fade than LFP, highlighting electrode thermodynamics as a key design consideration for thick electrodes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sustainable ammonia synthesis from nitrogen wet with sea water by single-step plasma catalysis

Ammonia synthesis at ambient conditions employing intermittent distributed green sources of energy and feedstocks is globally sought to replace the centralized Haber-Bosch (H-B) process operating at high temperature and pressure. We report herein for the first time an effective and sustainable ammonia synthesis pathway from N 2 wet with seawater vapor over spherical SiO 2 and M/SiO 2 (M: Ag, Cu, and Co) catalysts driven by non-thermal plasma (NTP). Experimental results indicate that the presence of a catalyst is required for ammonia production from seawater vapor and N 2 . The Co/SiO 2 catalyst delivered the highest ammonia synthesis rate (r NH 3 ) of 3.7 mmol g cat -1 h -1 and energy yield of 3.2 g NH 3 ∙kW -1 ∙h -1 at a relatively low input power of 2 W. The extraction of H atoms from H 2 O molecules plays an important role in the ammonia synthesis from seawater vapor. Finally, this work unfolds a novel platform for the subsequent optimization of sustainable ammonia production from endless resources such as seawater and N 2 through catalytic non-thermal plasma potentially powered by renewable sources.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Domain-aware Control-oriented Neural Models for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles

Conventional physics-based modeling is a time-consuming bottleneck in control design for complex nonlinear systems like autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). In contrast, purely data-driven models, require a large number of observations and lack operational guarantees for safety-critical systems. Data-driven models leveraging available partially characterized dynamics have potential to provide reliable systems models in a typical data-limited scenario for high value complex systems, thereby avoiding months of expensive expert modeling time. In this work we explore this middle-ground between expert-modeled and pure data-driven modeling. We present control-oriented parametric models with varying levels of domain-awareness that exploit known system structure and prior physics knowledge to create constrained deep neural dynamical system models. We employ universal differential equations to construct data-driven blackbox and graybox representations of the AUV dynamics. In addition, we explore a hybrid formulation that explicitly models the residual error related to imperfect graybox models. We compare the prediction performance of the learned models for different distributions of initial conditions and control inputs to assess their suitability for control.

Shaw Cortez, Wenceslao E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

SDYN-GANs: Adversarial learning methods for multistep generative models for general order stochastic dynamics

We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of dynamics of nth-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable m-step stochastic numerical integrators. From observations of trajectory samples, we introduce methods for learning long-time predictors and stable representations of the dynamics. Our approaches use discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using both conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. Our adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computational and Experimental Characterization of the Ligand Environment of a Ni-Oxo Catalyst Supported in the Metal–Organic Framework NU-1000

Heterogeneous catalysts exhibit significant changes in composition due to the influence of operating conditions, and these compositional changes can have dramatic effects on catalytic performance. For traditional bulk metal heterogeneous catalysts, relationships between composition and catalytic operating conditions are well documented. However, the influence of operating conditions on the compositions of single-site heterogeneous catalysts remains largely unresolved. To address this, we report a combined computational and experimental characterization of a Ni oxo catalyst under catalytic hydrogenation conditions. Specifically, pair distribution function (PDF) analysis is combined with ab initio thermodynamic modeling to investigate ligand environments present on a Ni oxo cluster supported in the metal–organic framework NU-1000. Comparisons of the experimentally observed and simulated Ni–O coordination numbers and Ni–O, Ni···Ni, and Ni···Zr distances provide insight into the Ni ligand environment under H 2 (g). These comparisons suggest significant OH and H 2 O content and, further, that different Ni ions within the cluster and/or NU-1000 structure may comprise subtly different numbers of these ligands. Further, the observation of significant H 2 O content under H 2 (g) suggests that the NU-1000 support supplies H 2 O to the cluster. Examples of ligand environments that could lead to the observed PDFs are provided. Furthermore, the combination of simulations and experiments provides new insights into the ligand environment for Ni-NU-1000 catalysts that will be useful for understanding the ligand environments of other single-site Ni catalysts as well.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Process Modeling of Aerosol‐Cloud Interaction in Summertime Precipitating Shallow Cumulus Over the Western North Atlantic

Abstract Process modeling of Aerosol‐cloud interaction (ACI) is essential to bridging gaps between observational analysis and climate modeling of aerosol effects in the Earth system and eventually reducing climate projection uncertainties. In this study, we examine ACI in summertime precipitating shallow cumuli observed during the Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). Aerosols and precipitating shallow cumuli were extensively observed with in‐situ and remote‐sensing instruments during two research flight cases on 02 June and 07 June, respectively, during the ACTIVATE summer 2021 deployment phase. We perform observational analysis and large‐eddy simulation (LES) of aerosol effect on precipitating cumulus in these two cases. Given the measured aerosol size distributions and meteorological conditions, LES is able to reproduce the observed cloud properties by aircraft such as liquid water content (LWC), cloud droplet number concentration ( N c ) and effective radius r eff . However, it produces smaller liquid water path (LWP) and larger N c compared to the satellite retrievals. Both 02 and 07 June cases are over warm waters of the Gulf Stream and have a cloud top height over 3 km, but the 07 June case is more polluted and has larger LWC. We find that the N a ‐induced LWP adjustment is dominated by precipitation feedback for the 2 June precipitating case and there is no clear entrainment feedback in both cases. An increase of cloud fraction due to a decrease of aerosol number concentration is also shown in the simulations for the 02 June case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A robust synthetic data generation framework for machine learning in high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM)

Machine learning techniques are attractive options for developing highly-accurate analysis tools for nanomaterials characterization, including high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM). However, successfully implementing such machine learning tools can be difficult due to the challenges in procuring sufficiently large, high-quality training datasets from experiments. In this work, we introduce Construction Zone, a Python package for rapid generation of complex nanoscale atomic structures which enables fast, systematic sampling of realistic nanomaterial structures and can be used as a random structure generator for large, diverse synthetic datasets. Using Construction Zone, we develop an end-to-end machine learning workflow for training neural network models to analyze experimental atomic resolution HRTEM images on the task of nanoparticle image segmentation purely with simulated databases. Further, we study the data curation process to understand how various aspects of the curated simulated data—including simulation fidelity, the distribution of atomic structures, and the distribution of imaging conditions—affect model performance across three benchmark experimental HRTEM image datasets. Using our workflow, we are able to achieve state-of-the-art segmentation performance on these experimental benchmarks and, further, we discuss robust strategies for consistently achieving high performance with machine learning in experimental settings using purely synthetic data. Construction Zone and its documentation are available at https://github.com/lerandc/construction_zone.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Damage to living trees contributes to almost half of the biomass losses in tropical forests

Abstract Accurate estimates of forest biomass stocks and fluxes are needed to quantify global carbon budgets and assess the response of forests to climate change. However, most forest inventories consider tree mortality as the only aboveground biomass (AGB) loss without accounting for losses via damage to living trees: branchfall, trunk breakage, and wood decay. Here, we use ~151,000 annual records of tree survival and structural completeness to compare AGB loss via damage to living trees to total AGB loss (mortality + damage) in seven tropical forests widely distributed across environmental conditions. We find that 42% (3.62 Mg ha −1 year −1 ; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36–5.25) of total AGB loss (8.72 Mg ha −1 year −1 ; CI 5.57–12.86) is due to damage to living trees. Total AGB loss was highly variable among forests, but these differences were mainly caused by site variability in damage‐related AGB losses rather than by mortality‐related AGB losses. We show that conventional forest inventories overestimate stand‐level AGB stocks by 4% (1%–17% range across forests) because assume structurally complete trees, underestimate total AGB loss by 29% (6%–57% range across forests) due to overlooked damage‐related AGB losses, and overestimate AGB loss via mortality by 22% (7%–80% range across forests) because of the assumption that trees are undamaged before dying. Our results indicate that forest carbon fluxes are higher than previously thought. Damage on living trees is an underappreciated component of the forest carbon cycle that is likely to become even more important as the frequency and severity of forest disturbances increase.

Zuleta, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design of an Out-Of-Pile Experimental Facility to Demonstrate the Feasibility of In Situ Thermal Conductivity Measurements of Nuclear Fuels Under Irradiation

There is substantial merit in quantifying nuclear fuel performance under irradiation. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the MiniFuel irradiation platform has become the primary test vehicle for conducting separate-effects fuel performance irradiation experiments. The MiniFuel experiment is a passively controlled capsule design deployed in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) through which fuel performance data is collected post-irradiation. Separate effects fuels irradiation capabilities are being expanded at ORNL by developing instrumented capsule designs that aim to capture fuel performance phenomena in-situ. One such capsule will specifically target fuel specimen thermal conductivity changes as a function of fuel burnup. Due to the complexity of making this measurement on nuclear fuel in-pile, this paper describes the necessary out-of-pile testing conducted on the thermal conductivity capsule (TCC) design. The measurement is ascertained via a thermopile system with heat transferred unidirectionally through a surrogate fuel specimen sandwiched between two conductive materials. The capsules investigated in this study are representative of the in-pile design, with the primary departure from irradiation conditions being the distribution of heat generation within the capsule. In the out-of-pile experiment, an external heater was used to drive heat through the conductive slug materials and into the specimen. This paper expounds the design of the out-of-pile experimental system and the thermal conductivity measurement technique. Predictive models used to determine the sensitivity of the measurement to variables governing thermal contact conductance between the specimen and slug materials and to predict experimental results are also described. Data from the out-of-pile experiment will be used to validate the readiness of the design for insertion into HFIR for irradiation.

Parker, Trevor [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino Beam Monitoring

Accelerator facilities produce neutrino beams from meson decays in a decay volume. Experiments measure event rates that depend on flux, cross sections, and detector response, so the flux is predicted using hadron production and beamline modeling and constrained by beam instrumentation, since near detectors alone cannot separate flux from cross section. Proton, hadron, and muon monitors can track the parent particle distributions and beam conditions, providing the inputs needed for flux predictions in long-baseline experiments such as NOvA, T2K, and DUNE. This talk reviews how beam monitors are used in practice to understand neutrino flux. Proton beam monitors tell where the beam hits the target and how stable it is. Farther downstream, hadron and muon monitors sample particles produced in meson decays. Because those muons come from the same parents as the neutrinos, their profiles reveal focusing, alignment shifts, and other changes in the beam, and they are routinely used to detect problems and guide flux predictions. The muon information can be used more quantitatively; for example, to infer the parent meson phase space, and fast radiation-hard timing detectors can add sensitivity to the momentum dependence of the focusing. These developments show both how tightly beam measurements can constrain the flux and where the current limits still lie. These approaches complement monitored-beam concepts, in which the decay region is instrumented to detect charged leptons from meson decays and to measure the neutrino flux directly.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino Beam Monitoring

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗

DOE OSTI2026

Understanding the causes of satellite–model discrepancies in aerosol–cloud interactions using near-LES simulations of marine boundary layer clouds

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) remain the largest source of uncertainty in model estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing, primarily because of deficiencies in representing aerosol–cloud microphysical processes that lead to inconsistent cloud liquid water path (LWP) responses to aerosol perturbations between observations and models. To investigate this discrepancy, we conducted a series of large-eddy-scale simulations driven by realistic meteorology over the eastern North Atlantic, and evaluated LWP susceptibility, precipitation processes, and boundary layer thermodynamics using satellite and ground-based observations. Simulated LWP responses show a strong dependence on cloud state. Non-precipitating thin clouds exhibit a modest LWP decrease with increasing cloud droplet number concentration (N d ), consistent in sign but weaker in magnitude than satellite estimates, reflecting enhanced turbulent mixing and evaporation. The largest model-observation discrepancy occurs in non-precipitating thick clouds, where simulated LWP susceptibilities are strongly positive (+0.32) while observations indicate large negative values (−0.69). This discrepancy stems from excessive precipitation driven by underestimated entrainment, overly active accretion, and overly broad drop-size distributions in polluted conditions. While our high-resolution setup mitigates the excessive drizzling common in coarser models and captures key regime transitions, these biases persist – highlighting that improved parameterizations of cloud-top processes, precipitation, and aerosol effects are needed beyond simply increasing model resolution. Additionally, misrepresented moisture inversions in reanalysis introduce a moist bias in cloud-top relative humidity, further amplifying positive LWP susceptibility. Our results also suggest that large negative N d –LWP relationships in observations may reflect internal cloud processes rather than true ACI effects.

Aerosol-cloud interaction↗

DOE OSTI2022

Novel Diglycolamide Extractant?s Performance in Liquid-Liquid Separations for Pilot Scale Application

Modified diglycolamide (DGA) extractants show high affinity for light lanthanides and improved separation factors compared to phosphonic acids used commercially. Previous studies with DGAs included flowsheet design and implementation into solvent extraction equipment but with low extractant concentration. Modifications on the alkyl chains of previous DGA extractants led to a competitive product for light rare earth separation with a higher extractant concentration. The scope of this project is to test a recently developed DGA extractant for application in pilot scale solvent extraction equipment with single stage testing, by narrowing down scrubbing conditions, and collecting distribution values for flowsheet planning.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of the aerosol vertical distributions and their impacts on warm clouds based on multi-year ARM observations

Aerosol vertical distribution plays a crucial role in cloud development and thus precipitation since both aerosol indirect and semi-direct effects significantly depend on the relative position of aerosol layer in reference to cloud, but its precise influence on cloud remains unclear. In this study, we integrated multi-year Raman Lidar measurements of aerosol vertical profiles from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility with available Value-Added Products of cloud features to characterize aerosol vertical distributions and their impacts on warm clouds over the continental and marine ARM atmospheric observatories, i.e., Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Eastern North Atlantic (ENA). A unimodal seasonal distribution of aerosol optical depths (AODs) with a peak in summer is found at upper boundary layer over SGP, while a bimodal distribution is observed at ENA for the AODs at lower levels with a major winter-spring maximum. The diurnal mean of upper-level AOD at SGP shows a maximum in the early evening. According to the relative positions of aerosol layers to clouds we further identify three primary types of aerosol vertical distribution, including Random, Decreasing, and Bottom. It is found that the impacts of aerosols on cloud may or may not vary with aerosol vertical distribution depending on environmental conditions, as reflected by the wide variations of the relations between AOD and cloud properties. For example, as AOD increases, the liquid water paths (LWPs) tend to be reduced at SGP but enhanced at ENA. The relations of cloud droplet effective radius with AOD largely depend on aerosol vertical distributions, particularly showing positive values in the Random type under low-LWP condition (<50gm -2 ). In conclusion, the distinct features of aerosol-cloud interactions in relation to aerosol vertical distribution are likely attributed to the continental-marine contrast in thermodynamic environments and aerosol conditions between SGP and ENA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗