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At least 91 records · Page 5

Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida

Multivariate analysis was used to determine the joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from 15 years of twice-daily rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component change with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and that the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh are tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from 1 to 5 hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented. Extension of the theoretical prediction (based on rawinsonde data) of wind component change standard deviation to time periods of 1 to 5 hours falls (with a few exceptions) within the 95 percentile confidence band of the population estimate obtained from the Jimsphere sample data. The joint distributions of wind change components, conditional wind components, and 1 km vector wind shear change components are illustrated by probability ellipses at the 95 percentile level.

Adelfang, S. I.↗

Plutonium Oxidation State Distribution under WIPP Relevant Conditions (Rev. 2)

The oxidation state of plutonium in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) environment has been a topic of interest since the initial compliance certification application. Plutonium (Pu) was initially expected to be present primarily as Pu(IV), but since the presence of Pu(III) could not be ruled out, it was also included in performance assessment (PA) calculations. The redox of the other variant actinides, uranium (U) and neptunium (Np), are also coupled to the plutonium redox. This led to a position in performance assessment calculations that is commonly referred to as “50/50”. In which half of the PA realizations assume solubility is dominated by the low oxidation state [U(IV), Np(IV), Pu(III)] and the other half assume solubility is dominated by the higher oxidation state [U(VI), Np(V), Pu(IV)]. Recently, a joint group of WIPP project participants from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the Department of Energy’s Carlsbad Field Office (DOE-CBFO) agreed on a new path forward for the oxidation state model in PA which will decouple the redox active actinides and will instead consider their redox as a function of E h . This will take the current binary approach and turn it into a system with four possible redox states.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Physical conditions, dynamics and mass distribution in the center of the galaxy

Investigations of the central 10 pc of the Galaxy, and conclusions on energetics, dynamics, and mass distribution derived from X and gamma ray measurements and from infrared and microwave studies, especially from spectroscopy, high resolution imaging, and interferometry are reviewed. Evidence for and against a massive black hole is analyzed.

Genzel, R.↗

Analyzing at-scale distribution grid response to extreme temperatures

Threats against power grids continue to increase, as extreme weather conditions and natural disasters (extreme events) become more frequent. Hence, there is a need for the simulation and modeling of power grids to reflect realistic conditions during extreme events conditions, especially distribution systems. Herein, this paper presents a modeling and simulation platform for electric distribution grids which can estimate overall power demand during extreme weather conditions. The presented platform's efficacy is shown by demonstrating estimation of electrical demand for 1) Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) during winter storm Uri in 2021, and 2) alternative hypothetical scenarios of integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), weatherization, and load electrification. In comparing to the actual demand served by ERCOT during the winter storm Uri of 2021, the proposed platform estimates approximately 34 GW of peak capacity deficit. These numbers are consistent with state-of-the-art prediction results published in the literature. For the case of the future electrification of heating loads, peak capacity of 78 GW (124% increase) is estimated, which would be reduced to 47 GW (38% increase) with the adoption of efficient heating appliances and improved thermal insulation. Integrating distributed solar PV and storage into the grid causes improvement in the local energy utilization and hence reduces the potential unmet energy by 31% and 40%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Conditional Pseudo-Reversible Normalizing Flow for Surrogate Modeling in Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow (PR-NF) that directly learns conditional probability distributions from noisy physical models to efficiently quantify both forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Traditional surrogate modeling approaches approximate only the deterministic component of physical models, requiring separate noise characterization and computationally expensive sampling methods for inverse problems. Here, in this work, we develop the conditional PR-NF model to directly learn and efficiently generate samples from the conditional probability density functions (PDFs). The training process utilizes dataset consisting of input-output pairs without requiring prior knowledge about the noise and the function. Once trained, our model efficiently generates samples from conditional PDFs for any input within the training domain. Moreover, the pseudo-reversibility feature allows for the use of fully connected neural network architectures, which simplifies the implementation and enables theoretical analysis. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the conditional PR-NF model, showing its ability to converge to the target conditional PDF using the Kullback−Leibler divergence. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we apply it to several benchmark tests and a real-world geologic carbon storage problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Envisioning urban environments resilient to vector-borne diseases: a protocol to study dengue in Vietnam

Transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti (Ae. aegypti) and Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus), arboviral diseases pose a major global public health threat. Dengue, chikungunya, and zika are increasingly prevalent in Southeast Asia. Among other arboviruses, dengue and zika are becoming more common in Central and South America. Given human encroachment into previously uninhabited, often deforested areas, to provide new housing in regions of population expansion, conceptualizing built urban environments in a novel way is urgently needed to safeguard against the growing climate change-driven threat of vector-borne diseases. By understanding the spread from a One Health perspective, enhanced control and prevention can be achieved. This is particularly important considering that climate change is likely to significantly impact the persistence of ponded water where mosquitoes breed due to increasing temperature and shifting rainfall patterns with regard to magnitude, duration, frequency, and season. Models can incorporate aquatic mosquito stages and adult spatial dynamics when habitats are heterogeneously available, thereby including dispersal and susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemiology. Coupled with human population distribution (density, locations), atmospheric conditions (air temperature, precipitation), and hydrological conditions (soil moisture distribution, ponding persistence in topographic depressions), modeling has improved predictive ability for infection rates. However, it has not informed interventional approaches from an urban environment perspective which considers the role of ponds/lakes that support green spaces, the density of population that enables rapid spread of disease, and varying micro-habitats for various mosquito stages under climate change. Here, for an example of dengue in Vietnam, a preventive and predictive approach to design resilient urban environments is proposed, which uses data from rapidly expanding metropolitan communities to learn continually. This protocol deploys computational approaches including simulation and machine learning/artificial intelligence, underpinned by surveillance and medical data for validation and adaptive learning. Its application may best inform urban planning in low-middle income countries in tropical zones where arboviral pathogens are prevalent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Vibration of thermally stressed plates with various boundary conditions.

By discarding Lurie's (1952) assumption of mode identity, it is shown that linear theory correctly predicts the frequency of all modes of a thermally stressed cantilever plate as well as the frequency and modes of plates with other boundary conditions. The thermal stress distribution is obtained for whatever temperature distribution and boundary conditions that may be specified. Experimental results are compared to calculated results for several different plates. Boundary conditions for the plates range from a plate with edges completely clamped to a plate with edges completely free with various other combinations of mixed and uniform edge conditions. Comparison of calculated data to experimental data shows that accurate, quantitative results can be obtained from linear theory for 'as cut' real plates for a significant range of heating when the assumption of mode identity is discarded.

Bailey, C. D.↗

Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida: Wind aloft profile change vs. time, phase 1

Wind vector change with respect to time at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is examined according to the theory of multivariate normality. The joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from fifteen years of twice daily Rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh, has been tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from one to five hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented.

Adelfang, S. I.↗

Diagnostics of dust content in spiral galaxies: Numerical simulations of radiative transfer

In order to find the best observable diagnostics for the amount of internal extinction within spiral galaxies, we have constructed realistic models for disk galaxies with immersed dust layers. The radiative transfer including both scattering and absorption has been computed for a range of model galaxies in various orientations. Standard galaxy surface photometry techniques were then applied to the numerical data to illustrate how different observables such as total magnitude, color and luminosity distribution behave under given conditions of dust distribution. This work reveals a set of superior diagnostics for the dust in the disk. These include not only the integrated parameters, but also the apparent disk structural parameters, the amplitude of the asymmetry between the near and far sides of the galaxy as divided by the apparent major axis and their dependence on the orientation of the galaxy with respect to the observer. Combining the above diagnostics with our impressions of real galaxies, we arrive at the qualitative conclusion that galaxy disks are generally optically thin. Quantitative conclusions will appear in subsequent work.

Byun, Y. I.↗

Resilience Assessment Framework For Electric Distribution Systems Performance Under Extreme Conditions

The devastating impact of extreme weather-related events is increasingly evident on power grids, especially on distribution grids. The severity of their potential impact calls for 1) developing a suitable resilience assessment framework to capture the system performance and 2) assessing relevant mitigative strategies to lessen the impact of such events. This paper proposes a framework to identify grid vulnerabilities using the energy-at-risk concept to select, disconnect and isolate grid portions due to a resilience event. The proposed framework mainly consists of two steps; i) processing the utility's available infrastructure, i.e., a network model, possible switching combinations, and outage information for those combinations, as a graph-based database, and ii) implementing a novel optimal switching algorithm leveraging database and grid simulated metrics. These switching actions are generated to implement load curtailment in a rolling manner during anticipated grid scarcity conditions. In this study, a test case is created using two taxonomy feeders and is simulated against an extreme temperature event, e.g., a long, relatively cold, and prolonged freeze peak, thereby creating stress on the grid. It is demonstrated that the proposed framework allows utilities to predict the energy-at-risk during such resilience events and design suitable outage management strategies.

Poudel, Shiva↗

Seasonal Cost-Benefit Analysis of Automated Distribution Feeder Upgrades with Advanced Mitigation Technologies

The increasing deployment of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) to meet clean energy goals can trigger adverse grid operation issues, such as voltage excursions and the violation of thermal loading constraints of the power delivery elements (e.g., lines and transformers) on the evolving electricity infrastructure. Such integration issues would require distribution upgrades with associated costs to mitigate them and to maintain reliable and resilient grid operating conditions. Traditional distribution network upgrade approaches use a specific single snapshot analysis that is overly conservative. This study considers a multi-time point analysis to capture both moderate (probable bounds) and extreme grid operating conditions using time points such as minimum load with minimum photovoltaics (PV), maximum load with maximum PV, maximum load with minimum PV, and minimum load with maximum PV. Further, this study investigates seasonal variation impacts and associated distribution upgrade costs for a spring season case (March, representing a low load and high PV scenario) and a summer case (July, representing a high load and high PV scenario). Such seasonal analysis will allow system operators to characterize upgrade requirements and associated costs across various periods. Because the spatial distribution of DPV can impact upgrade and associated costs, this study investigates three common DPV deployment scenarios - randomly deployed, close to the substation, and far from the substation - at different penetration levels. Apart from spatial distribution impacts, this project evaluates the techno-economic impacts of the nodal photovoltaic penetration factor (NPPF) for generating the various DPV deployment scenarios at increasing penetration levels. This project investigates the impact of varying nodal PV-to-load ratios using conservative and extreme NPPF values of 3 and 10, respectively. This study investigates the deployment of traditional infrastructure upgrade strategies, such as installing new voltage regulating equipment, transformers and lines replacements, and the activation of advanced inverter functionality (e.g., autonomous volt/VAR) in expanding PV hosting capacity. Existing DPV systems are assumed to operate with the legacy unity power factor, and we considered the possibility of retrofitting such systems with the activation of volt/VAR control as integration standards and regulations continue to evolve to allow such functions. The cost-benefit analysis metrics used in study include distribution upgrade costs, average cost per watt of the upgrade cost, average marginal cost per watt of the upgrade cost, and power losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Improved Test Planning and Analysis Through the Use of Advanced Statistical Methods

The goal of this work is, through computational simulations, to provide statistically-based evidence to convince the testing community that a distributed testing approach is superior to a clustered testing approach for most situations. For clustered testing, numerous, repeated test points are acquired at a limited number of test conditions. For distributed testing, only one or a few test points are requested at many different conditions. The statistical techniques of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Design of Experiments (DOE) and Response Surface Methods (RSM) are applied to enable distributed test planning, data analysis and test augmentation. The D-Optimal class of DOE is used to plan an optimally efficient single- and multi-factor test. The resulting simulated test data are analyzed via ANOVA and a parametric model is constructed using RSM. Finally, ANOVA can be used to plan a second round of testing to augment the existing data set with new data points. The use of these techniques is demonstrated through several illustrative examples. To date, many thousands of comparisons have been performed and the results strongly support the conclusion that the distributed testing approach outperforms the clustered testing approach.

Green, Lawrence L.↗

Towards an Enhanced Droplet Activation Scheme for Multi-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes

Initial droplet spectra produced upon activation impact the ensuing chain of microphysical processes andtherefore play a crucial role in cloud evolution. This work re-examines dependencies of newly formed clouddroplet size distribution (CDSD) characteristics on environmental and aerosol properties via parcel model simulationsthat serve as the basis for a multi-moment bulk microphysics droplet activation scheme suitable for acloud-resolving model (CRM). It is found that applying a fixed size threshold to define activated droplets versusemploying physical considerations can lead to erroneous activation and overly broad CDSDs for high aerosolconcentration and weak updraft conditions. Aerosol distributions characterized by larger median sizes and/orincreased solubility can result in greater activated droplet numbers, whereas impacts of these parameters onCDSD spectral width depend on both aerosol number concentration and updraft velocity. An expansion of theactivation scheme to include CDSD spectral width is proposed to aid efforts to extend high-order momentprediction to cloud droplet categories in CRMs as well as better represent variability in the activation process onthe cloud scale.simulations to investigate the regime dependence of the relative dispersion(d)1 of newly activated CDSDs, where d is the ratio of dropletradius standard deviation (σ) to the mean radius (r ). C16 demonstratedthat increasing Na resulted in increasing (decreasing) d values via reducedcondensational narrowing (spectral broadening) rates within theAL (UL) regime, with d values peaking in the TR regime. Their findingssuggest a similar regime dependence for d as R09 noted for Nc and helpexplain reportedly conflicting relationships between Na and CDSDspectral characteristics (cf. Hudson and Noble, 2014; Liu et al., 2014),although the applicability of these results within bulk microphysicalschemes was not addressed.Simulating aerosol-cloud interactions with CRMs employing bulkmicrophysics requires that the scheme minimally predict two CDSDparameters, namely mass and number concentrations, and represent thedroplet activation process. Various activation schemes aim to determineNc from aerosol and environmental properties and include analyticalexpressions (e.g., Abdul-Razzak et al., 1998; Morrison et al., 2005) aswell as lookup tables (LUTs) based on detailed parcel model calculations(e.g., Saleeby and Cotton, 2004, hereafter SC04; Segal and Khain,2006; Thompson and Eidhammer, 2014). Expressions to diagnose CDSDspectral width from Nc (Grabowski, 1998; Liu et al., 2006; Morrison andGrabowski, 2007) or cloud water content (Geoffroy et al., 2010) havealso been developed, although more robust methods to obtain CDSDspectral width upon activation are presently lacking. This latter point isrelevant for triple-moment (3 M) bulk microphysics that aim to predictdistribution spectral width alongside number and mass concentrations(e.g., Loftus et al., 2014; Milbrandt and Yau, 2005).The current work extends the findings of C16 to the current LUTbasedaerosol activation scheme used in the Regional AtmosphericModeling System (RAMS) (Cotton et al., 2003; SC04; Saleeby and vanden Heever, 2013, hereafter SvdH13) and additionally examinesaerosol size and solubility impacts on newly activated CDSD properties.Because early cloud development processes such as condensationalgrowth, evaporation, and droplet self-collection depend on and impactCDSD spectral width (Hudson and Yum, 1997; Seifert and Beheng 2001;Lu and Seinfeld, 2006; Igel and van den Heever, 2017), an expansion ofthe activation LUTs to include CDSD spectral width is proposed as apreliminary step for extending 3M prediction to CDSDs in CRMs forimproved simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions.2. MethodologyThe current RAMS two-moment microphysics module determinesthe fractional number of aerosol particles that activate to cloud dropletsfrom five-dimensional LUTs based on model predicted air temperature(T), w, Na, and the geometric median radius (rg) and soluble fraction (ε)of the aerosol size distribution (SvdH13). These LUTs are created offlineusing a one-dimensional Lagrangian adiabatic parcel model (Feingoldand Heymsfield, 1992; Heymsfield and Sabin, 1989; SC04) to simulateexplicit droplet activation and initial CDSD growth for a range of ambientatmospheric conditions [T, w] and binned lognormal aerosol sizedistributions given by= ⎡⎣ ⎢− ⎤⎦ ⎥N r Nr π σr rσ( )2 lnexp[ln( / )]2(ln )aggg22 (1)where r is the dry aerosol particle bin radius and σg is the geometricstandard deviation of the distribution. As the parcel model simulationsfocus on the activation process, other processes such as coalescence,sedimentation, and mixing are not considered. Details of the parcelmodel can be found in SC04 and SvdH13, and only a brief description isprovided here. At the onset of parcel model calculations, the initiallydry aerosol particles in all bins first deliquesce and reach theirequilibrium diameters in a sub-saturated environment based on theKöhler equation for solution droplets. The parcel is then lifted at a fixedupward velocity w, and particle growth by vapor diffusion, along withconcurrent changes in the ambient environment, are iteratively computedusing the Variable-coefficient Ordinary Differential Equation(VODE) solver (Brown et al., 1989). The time resolution of these calculationsis determined within the VODE solver, and the frequency atwhich the solver is called is controlled by a longer model time stepbased on fixed upward parcel displacement increments (Δz) at thespecified w (Δt=Δz/w). Model calculations proceed until the parcelreaches a height 50m beyond the level of maximum saturation ratio(Smax) or total parcel displacement exceeds 2 km. Upon model termination,Smax and the fractional number of aerosols (factv) resulting innewly formed cloud droplets, defined as particles having diameters of atleast 2 μm, are cataloged in the LUTs according to the specified T, w, Na,rg, and ε parameter values.A critical point regarding the creation of these LUTs is the use of afixed minimum diameter (Dmin) to define cloud droplets in the parcelmodel, which can produce erroneous CDSD characteristics, particularlywithin the UL regime. For aerosol distributions with large rg valuesunder low SS conditions, for example, deliquesced aerosols within thelarge tail of the distribution can exceed 2 μm in diameter yet remainunactivated as ‘haze’ particles (Levin and Cotton, 2009; McFigganset al., 2006). For this study, aerosol particles activate to cloud dropletsbased on the critical diameter Dcrit as a function of parcel supersaturationratio (Sr) as in R09:D = σ MS RTρ83 ln( ) critsol wr w (2)where σsol is the surface tension of a solution droplet, Mw and ρw are themolar mass and density of liquid water, respectively, and R is theuniversal gas constant. Additionally, at relatively large w values withinthe AL regime, Nc stabilizes shortly after reaching supersaturation.However, parcel ascent and condensational growth continue beyondthe level of Smax, potentially causing additional narrowing of the CDSD.In the current work, model calculations terminate upon reaching Smaxas changes in Nc are negligible with continued ascent (Peng et al., 2007;R09).Parcel model simulations are performed to examine the sensitivitiesof CDSD characteristics to w, Na, rg, and ε, with the ranges for theseparameters listed in Table 1. Aerosols are assumed to be a mix of solubleand insoluble material of equal density, specified by ε, where fullysoluble aerosols correspond to ammonium sulfate with hygroscopicityparameter κ=0.61 (Petters and Kreidenweis, 2007). FollowingSvdH13, aerosol geometric standard deviation is fixed at σg=1.8, andaerosol distributions (Eq. 1) are partitioned into 100 logarithmicallyspacedbins spanning a size range specific to each rg value. For all simulations,Δz=1 m, and initial values of relative humidity, air temperatureand pressure are set to RH=0.99, T=10 °C and p=900 hPa,respectively.

Loftus, Adrian M.↗

Effect of energetic oxygen atoms on neutral density models.

The dissociative recombination of O2(+) and NO(+) in the F region results in the production of atomic oxygen and atomic nitrogen with substantially greater kinetic energy than the ambient atoms. In the exosphere these energetic atoms have long free paths. They can ascend to altitudes of several thousand kilometers and can travel horizontally to distances of the order of the earth's radius. The distribution of energetic oxygen atoms is derived by means of models of the ion and neutral densities for quiet and disturbed solar conditions. A distribution technique is used to study the motion of the atoms in the collision-dominated region. Ballistic trajectories are calculated in the spherical gravitational field of the earth. The present calculations show that the number densities of energetic oxygen atoms predominate over the ambient atomic oxygen densities above 1000 km under quiet solar conditions and above 1600 km under disturbed solar conditions.

Rohrbaugh, R. P.↗

The battery failure databank: Insights from an open-access database of thermal runaway behaviors of Li-ion cells and a resource for benchmarking risks

The thermal response of Li-ion cells can greatly vary for identical cell designs tested under identical conditions, the distribution of which is costly to fully characterize experimentally. The open-source Battery Failure Databank presented here contains robust, high-quality data from hundreds of abuse tests spanning numerous commercial cell designs and testing conditions. Data was gathered using a fractional thermal runaway calorimeter and contains the fractional breakdown of heat and mass that was ejected, as well as high-speed synchrotron radiography of the internal dynamic response of cells during thermal runaway. The distribution of thermal output, mass ejection, and internal response of commercial cells are compared for different abuse-test conditions, which when normalized on a per amp-hour basis show a strong positive correlation between heat output from cells, the fraction of mass ejected from the cells, their energy- and power-density. Ejected mass was shown to contain 10x more heat per gram than non-ejected mass. The causes of 'outlier' thermal and ejection responses i.e., extreme cases, are elucidated by high-speed radiography which showed how occurrences such as vent clogging can create more hazardous conditions. High-speed radiography also demonstrated how the time-resolved interplay of thermal runaway propagation and mass ejection influences the total heat generated.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Bivariate extreme value distributions

In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

Elshamy, M.↗