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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Reimagining Earth in the Earth System

Abstract Terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems regulate climate at local to global scales through exchanges of energy and matter with the atmosphere and assist with climate change mitigation through nature‐based climate solutions. Climate science is no longer a study of the physics of the atmosphere and oceans, but also the ecology of the biosphere. This is the promise of Earth system science: to transcend academic disciplines to enable study of the interacting physics, chemistry, and biology of the planet. However, long‐standing tension in protecting, restoring, and managing forest ecosystems to purposely improve climate evidences the difficulties of interdisciplinary science. For four centuries, forest management for climate betterment was argued, legislated, and ultimately dismissed, when nineteenth century atmospheric scientists narrowly defined climate science to the exclusion of ecology. Today's Earth system science, with its roots in global models of climate, unfolds in similar ways to the past. With Earth system models, geoscientists are again defining the ecology of the Earth system. Here we reframe Earth system science so that the biosphere and its ecology are equally integrated with the fluid Earth to enable Earth system prediction for planetary stewardship. Central to this is the need to overcome an intellectual heritage to the models that elevates geoscience and marginalizes ecology and local land knowledge. The call for kilometer‐scale atmospheric and ocean models, without concomitant scientific and computational investment in the land and biosphere, perpetuates the geophysical view of Earth and will not fully provide the comprehensive actionable information needed for a changing climate.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Computationally Efficient Algorithm for Computing Convex Hull Prices

Electricity markets worldwide allow participants to bid non-convex production offers. While non-convex offers can more accurately reflect a resource's capabilities, they create challenges for market clearing processes. For example, system operators may execute side payments when a participant’s cost is not covered through energy sale settlements from locational marginal pricing schemes, or when a participant incurs lost opportunity costs to follow the dispatch signal. Convex hull pricing minimizes these and other types of side payments while providing uniform (i.e., locationally and temporally consistent) prices. However, computing convex hull prices involves solving either a large-scale linear program - which in turn requires explicit descriptions of market participants’ convex hulls -or the Lagrangian dual of the corresponding non-convex scheduling problem. Here, we propose a computationally feasible and industrially scalable Benders decomposition approach to computing convex hull prices at least an order of magnitude faster than the current state-of-the-art while leveraging recent advances in convex hull formulations for thermal generating units.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experiences Detecting Defective Hardware in Exascale Supercomputers

In May 2022, the newest supercomputer to top the TOP 500 list was Frontier at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, demonstrating the capability of computing more than 1.1 quintillion (1018) floating-point calculations every second. Driving this ground-breaking rate of computing is Frontier’s more than 37,000 graphics processing units (GPUs) and 9,408 central processing units (CPUs). In total, Frontier contains more than 60 million parts. At this scale, the smallest margin of error may generate hundreds of hardware errors across the system. These errors are capable of directly hindering world-class science performed on Frontier if not found. In this work, we describe and evaluate two strategies for finding hardware-level faults in Frontier’s 9,408 compute nodes. There are two strategies developed: the first uses the Slurm scheduler to scavenge available compute time to run the node screen, the second builds upon the lessons learned in the first strategy and enforces a weekly screen of each node. Using June 2023 as a case study, we find that the first scheduling strategy consumed more than ten times the resources as the second scheduling strategy, but successfully detected five hardware defects in Frontier. We summarize the lessons learned while developing and running a node screen on the world’s first exascale supercomputer.

Hagerty, Nick↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Simulation and Computing: ASC FY24 Implementation Plan

The DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) is an integrated technical program for maintaining the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. The SSP incorporates nuclear test data, computational modeling and simulation, and experimental facilities to advance understanding of nuclear weapons. The suite of data analyzed comes from activities including previous nuclear tests, stockpile surveillance, experimental research, and development and engineering programs. This integrated national program requires the continued use of experimental facilities and the computational capabilities to support the SSP missions. These component parts, in addition to an appropriately scaled production capability, enable NNSA to support stockpile requirements. The ultimate goal of the SSP, and thus of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program, is to ensure that the U.S. maintains a safe, secure, and effective strategic deterrent. The ASC program is a cornerstone of the SSP, providing simulation capabilities and computational resources to support the annual stockpile assessment and certification process, study advanced nuclear weapons design and manufacturing processes, analyze accident scenarios and weapons aging, and provide the tools to enable stockpile Life Extension Programs (LEPs) and the resolution of Significant Finding Investigations (SFIs). This work requires a balance of resources, including technical staff, hardware, simulation software, and computer science solutions. The ASC program focuses on increasing the predictive capabilities in a three-dimensional (3D) simulation environment while maintaining support to the SSP. The Program continues to improve its unique tools for understanding and solving progressively more difficult stockpile problems (sufficient resolution, dimensionality, and scientific details), and quantifying critical margins and uncertainties. Resolving each issue requires increasingly difficult analyses because the aging process has progressively moved the stockpile further from the original test base. While the focus remains on the U.S. nuclear weapons program, where possible, the Program also enables the use of high-performance computing (HPC) and simulation tools to address broader national security needs, such as foreign nuclear weapon assessments and nuclear counterterrorism. The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) calls for NNSA to “deliver a modern, adaptive nuclear security enterprise based on an integrated strategy for risk management, production-based resilience, science and technology innovation, and workforce initiatives.” Furthermore, “NNSA will establish a Science and Technology Innovation Initiative to accelerate the integration of science and technology (S&T) throughout its activities.” Executing this strategy necessitates the continued emphasis on developing and sustaining high-quality scientific and engineering staff, as well as supporting computational and experimental capabilities. These components constitute the foundation of the nuclear weapons program. The continued success of the SSP and LEPs is predicated upon the ability to credibly certify the stockpile, without a return to underground nuclear tests (UGTs). Shortly after the nuclear test moratorium entered into force in 1992, the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) was established to provide an extensive simulation capability to underpin stockpile certification. While computing and simulation have always been essential to the success of the nuclear weapons program, the program goal of ASCI was to execute NNSA’s vision of using these tools in support of the stockpile stewardship mission. The ASCI program was essential to the successful demonstration of the SSP, providing critical nuclear weapons simulation and modeling capabilities. ASCI officially evolved into the ASC program in fiscal year (FY) 2005, but the mission remains essentially the same: provide the simulation and computational capabilities that underpin the ability to maintain a safe, secure, effective nuclear weapon stockpile, without returning to underground nuclear testing. The capabilities that the ASC program provides at the national laboratories play a vital role in the nuclear security enterprise and are necessary for fulfilling the stockpile stewardship and life extension requirements outlined for NNSA. The Program develops modern simulation tools that provide insights into stockpile aging issues, provide the computational and simulation tools that enable designers and analysts to certify the current stockpile and life-extended nuclear weapons, and inform the decision-making process when any modifications in nuclear warheads or the associated manufacturing processes are deemed necessary. Furthermore, ASC is enhancing the predictive simulation capabilities that are essential to evaluate weapons effects, design experiments, and ensure test readiness. The ASC program continues to improve its unique tools to solve stockpile problems— with a focus on sufficient resolution, dimensionality, and scientific detail—to enable Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) and to resolve the increasingly difficult analyses needed for stockpile stewardship. The needs of the Stockpile Management and Production Modernization programs (formerly Directed Stockpile Work) also drive the requirements for simulation and computational resources. These requirements include planned LEPs, stockpile support activities, and mitigation efforts against the potential for technical surprise. All of the weapons within the current stockpile are in some stage of the life extension process. The simulation and computational capabilities are crucial for successful execution of these life extensions and for ensuring NNSA can certify these life-extended weapons without conducting a UGT.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Reliability Trade-Offs in 1T-nC and 2T-nC FeRAM Designs

Ferroelectric random access memory (FeRAM) is a promising candidate for energy-efficient nonvolatile memory, particularly for logic-in-memory and compute-in-memory (CIM) applications. Among the available cell architectures, One-Transistor–n-Capacitor (1T-nC) and two-transistor–n-capacitor (2T-nC) FeRAMs each offer distinct trade-offs in density, scalability, and reliability. In this work, we present a comparative study of these two architectures under both dimensional scaling ( XY/Z shrinkage) and vertical integration (increasing stacked capacitors per cell). Using technology computer-aided design (TCAD) and circuit-level simulations, we analyze how scaling impacts ferroelectric capacitance, parasitic coupling, and floating-node (FN) dynamics, which together dictate sense margin (SM) and read stability. A key mitigation strategy—floating unselected capacitors—is applied to both architectures, effectively decoupling the SM from the number of stacked capacitors and enabling tractable analysis across scaling regimes. Results show that 1T-nC suffers more from charge sharing with the bitline (BL), while 2T-nC benefits from transistor isolation and stronger low-voltage sensing at the cost of increased area. By systematically evaluating these behaviors across scaling directions, this work establishes the reliability trade-offs of 1T-nC and 2T-nC cells and provides design guidelines for high-density, vertically integrated FeRAM systems.

1T-nC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supporting Resource Adequacy via the ReEDS-India Model [Slides]

ReEDS-India is an open-access tool for mid- and long-term capacity expansion modeling that finds the mix of generation, transmission, and storage technologies that meet the anticipated requirements of the electric sector at least cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electron–phonon physics from first principles using the EPW code

EPW is an open-source software for ab initio calculations of electron–phonon interactions and related materials properties. The code combines density functional perturbation theory and maximally localized Wannier functions to efficiently compute electron–phonon coupling matrix elements, and to perform predictive calculations of temperature-dependent properties and phonon-assisted quantum processes in bulk solids and low-dimensional materials. Here, we report on significant developments in the code since 2016, namely: a transport module for the calculation of charge carrier mobility under electric and magnetic fields using the Boltzmann transport equation; a superconductivity module for calculations of phonon-mediated superconductors using the anisotropic multi-band Eliashberg theory; an optics module for calculations of phonon-assisted indirect transitions; a module for the calculation of small and large polarons without supercells; and a module for calculating band structure renormalization and temperature-dependent optical spectra using the special displacement method. For each capability, we outline the methodology and implementation and provide example calculations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calculating Radiation Damage (DPA) from Transmutation Products

This is a poster for an INL poster session. Accurate models for radiation damage are crucial for predicting material performance in radiation environments. The uncertainty of state-of-the-art radiation damage models is large, contributing to excessive safety margins. A major source of this uncertainty is neglecting the effect that transmutation products have on radiation damage. Transmutation products are new nuclides formed by neutron activation during irradiation; they can contribute to radiation damage by additional neutron capture or decay events. Ignoring the contribution of transmutation products leads to a significant underprediction of the radiation damage (e.g., >10% error in 316 stainless steel). This underprediction is accounted for in part by adding larger safety margins to designs. Currently, the state of the art explicitly accounts for only a single transmutation product, namely nickel-59, during the radiation damage calculation. All other transmutation products are assumed to not contribute to the radiation damage, because there is currently no established method to systematically track all or a selection of radiation damage contributions of transmutation products during activation. In the case of nickel-59, the current method is to apply a precalculated correlation that cannot be used for any other nuclide and is largely dependent on all nuclear engineers being experts in this niche topic. This project proposed to methodically find other transmutation products that cause significant radiation damage, and then to develop a general framework for systematically tracking the radiation damage from these nuclides. This was accomplished by combining the radiation damage calculation into the transmutation calculation already performed for irradiated structural materials. The key idea of our framework is to introduce radiation-damage "pseudo-nuclides" to the list of nuclides used in the transmutation analysis. This allows radiation damage to be tracked alongside the creation and destruction of transmutation products. The main deliverable of this project is a general framework for computing radiation damage while the damaged material undergoes transmutation; this capability allows a significantly more accurate estimation of radiation damage, and in turn reduce required safety margins thereby reducing the cost to construct reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integration of Computational Docking into Anti-Cancer Drug Response Prediction Models

Cancer is a heterogeneous disease in that tumors of the same histology type can respond differently to a treatment. Anti-cancer drug response prediction is of paramount importance for both drug development and patient treatment design. Although various computational methods and data have been used to develop drug response prediction models, it remains a challenging problem due to the complexities of cancer mechanisms and cancer-drug interactions. To better characterize the interaction between cancer and drugs, we investigate the feasibility of integrating computationally derived features of molecular mechanisms of action into prediction models. Specifically, we add docking scores of drug molecules and target proteins in combination with cancer gene expressions and molecular drug descriptors for building response models. The results demonstrate a marginal improvement in drug response prediction performance when adding docking scores as additional features, through tests on large drug screening data. We discuss the limitations of the current approach and provide the research community with a baseline dataset of the large-scale computational docking for anti-cancer drugs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring Classification of Topological Priors With Machine Learning for Feature Extraction

In many scientific endeavors, increasingly abstract representations of data allow for new interpretive methodologies and conceptualization of phenomena. For example, moving from raw imaged pixels to segmented and reconstructed objects allows researchers new insights and means to direct their studies toward relevant areas. Thus, the development of new and improved methods for segmentation remains an active area of research. With advances in machine learning and neural networks, scientists have been focused on employing deep neural networks such as U-Net to obtain pixel-level segmentations, namely, defining associations between pixels and corresponding/referent objects and gathering those objects afterward. Topological analysis, such as the use of the Morse-Smale complex to encode regions of uniform gradient flow behavior, offers an alternative approach: first, create geometric priors, and then apply machine learning to classify. This approach is empirically motivated since phenomena of interest often appear as subsets of topological priors in many applications. Using topological elements not only reduces the learning space but also introduces the ability to use learnable geometries and connectivity to aid the classification of the segmentation target. Here, in this article, we describe an approach to creating learnable topological elements, explore the application of ML techniques to classification tasks in a number of areas, and demonstrate this approach as a viable alternative to pixel-level classification, with similar accuracy, improved execution time, and requiring marginal training data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of U-net-based Image Segmentation Model to Digital Mammography

Detecting suspicious lesions in medical imaging is the important first step in computer-aided detection (CAD) systems. However, detecting abnormalities in breast tissue is difficult due to the lesion's varying size, shape, margin, and contrast with the background tissue. We focused on mass segmentation, a method that provides notable morphological features by outlining contours of masses. Accurate segmentation is crucial for correct diagnosis. Recent advancements in deep learning have improved object detection and segmentation, and these techniques are also being applied to medical imaging studies. We focused on U-net, which is a recently developed mass segmentation algorithm based on a fully convolutional network. The U-net architecture consists of (1) a contracting path to increase the resolution of the output and (2) a symmetric expanding path to better locate the region of interest. The performance of a U-net model was tested with 63 digital mammograms from INbreast, a publicly available database. We trained the model with images resized to 40x40 pixels and conducted 10-fold cross-validation to prevent overfitting. The model's performance with respect to breast density and the lesion's BI-RADS rating was also investigated. Dice coefficients (DC) were used as a performance measure to compare the predicted segmentation of the model with the ground truth. Logistic regression and an analysis of variance were performed to determine the significance of the DCs with regards to breast density and lesion behavior and to calculate the 95% confidence interval. The average DC was 0.80. The difference between DCs for BI-RADS 2 and 4c and for BI-RADS 2 and 5 were significant, suggesting that the model has more difficulty in segmenting benign lesions.

Cho, Priscilla↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dominant Wave Energy Systems and Conditional Wave Resource Characterization for Coastal Waters of the United States

Opportunities and constraints for wave energy conversion technologies and projects are evaluated by identifying and characterizing the dominant wave energy systems for United States (US) coastal waters using marginal and joint distributions of the wave energy in terms of the peak period, wave direction, and month. These distributions are computed using partitioned wave parameters generated from a 30 year WaveWatch III model hindcast, and regionally averaged to identify the dominant wave systems contributing to the total annual available energy ( A A E ) for eleven distinct US wave energy climate regions. These dominant wave systems are linked to the wind systems driving their generation and propagation. In addition, conditional resource parameters characterizing peak period spread, directional spread, and seasonal variability, which consider dependencies of the peak period, direction, and month, are introduced to augment characterization methods recommended by international standards. These conditional resource parameters reveal information that supports project planning, conceptual design, and operation and maintenance. The present study shows that wave energy resources for the United States are dominated by long-period North Pacific swells (Alaska, West Coast, Hawaii), short-period trade winds and nor’easter swells (East Coast, Puerto Rico), and wind seas (Gulf of Mexico). Seasonality, peak period spread, and directional spread of these dominant wave systems are characterized to assess regional opportunities and constraints for wave energy conversion technologies targeting the dominant wave systems.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian operator inference for data-driven reduced-order modeling

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian inverse problem with Gaussian prior and likelihood. The resulting posterior distribution characterizes the operators defining the reduced-order model, hence the predictions subsequently issued by the reduced-order model are endowed with uncertainty. The statistical moments of these predictions are estimated via a Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. Since the reduced models are fast to solve, this sampling is computationally efficient. Furthermore, the proposed Bayesian framework provides a statistical interpretation of the regularization term that is present in the deterministic operator inference problem, and the empirical Bayes approach of maximum marginal likelihood suggests a selection algorithm for the regularization hyperparameters. The proposed method is demonstrated on two examples: the compressible Euler equations with noise-corrupted observations, and a single-injector combustion process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Intraplate Stress Field of West Africa

West Africa continues to host a growing number of low and intermediate-magnitude earthquakes (M2-5) along its passive margins, and its continental interior. Earthquake activity in these regions raises the need to comprehend the causes and the tectonic controls of the seismicity. Unfortunately, such studies are rare. Here, we apply single-station inversion techniques to constrain fourteen focal mechanisms, computed after compiling a set of high-quality waveforms. We describe the connection between seismicity, the contemporary stress field, anthropogenic activity and Holocene fault scarps in the region. Our results indicate transpressive stresses acting on the inherited brittle structures in the passive margins. We also observe a compressive regime in the intracontinental failed rifts. We attribute the seismicity to the reactivation of “weak” faults in the Neoproterozoic and Mesozoic failed rifts, the passive transform structures, and the intracratonic Precambrian brittle shear zones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A methodology to compute the critical current limit in Nb3Sn magnets

Numerous experiments have shown that the loads applied to Nb3Sn strands and cables can reduce their critical current. Experiments, performed on uniaxially loaded strands, allowed to define clear laws to describe the evolution of the critical surface as a function of the applied current, field, temperature and strain. It is, however, still unclear how these laws can be applied to superconducting magnets. The present paper proposes a methodology to estimate the critical current and temperature margin reduction on superconducting magnets due to stress on the superconducting material. The methodology is tested on the MQXF magnets, a quadrupole developed for the High Luminosity LHC project, and successfully validated by comparing computed strain with data from strain gauge measurements. Overall, results suggested that, because of the stresses arising in winding during assembly, cool-down and powering, the current limit of the magnet is lower than the expected short sample limit, and that the most critical region does not coincide with the peak field location.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developing And Scaling an OpenFOAM Model to Study Turbulent Flow in a HFIR Coolant Channel

Improving the understanding of how computational fluid dynamics (CFD) direct numerical simulations (DNS) of flows in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) perform when run in parallel using the high performance computing (HPC) platform Summit at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) is of particular importance to boost the computational tools used to support HFIR conversion to low enriched fuel (LEU). Evaluation of scaling performance was driven by the increasing importance of graphics processing unit (GPU) usage in HPC, which is becoming the standard for modern supercomputers such as Summit. The desired results are to obtain a strong positive correlation between the computational resources dedicated to a problem and the relative speed-up of the simulation in comparison to a benchmark. This capability will allow substantially improvement in HFIR flow analytical capabilities, specifically when predicting turbulence properties at high Reynolds numbers. The study leverages previous simulation results performed with code PHASTA (finite element) on HPC platforms Cori (NERSC) and Theta (ALCF) [1] with computing options provided in the computing platform OpenFOAM (finite volume) at OLCF. Transitioning from PHASTA to OpenFOAM will (1) eliminate dependence on third-party software for mesh generation and manipulation, (2) reduce resource needs by employing modern architectures, and (3) build expertise for future modeling of HFIR-specific problems like heat transfer in involute geometry, entrance effects, flow structure in channel corners, and so on—all important issues when defining the available thermal margins in the transition to LEU. CPUs and GPUs differ significantly in their architecture and utilization, as discussed in the literature [2]. The most important differences are in the approach to computations and their memory. A single GPU contains a large quantity of cores, enabling it to perform with a much higher throughput than a CPU, but execution requires a different approach. GPU codes execute instructions using the Single-Instruction Multiple-Thread (SIMT) approach in which a single instruction is used for groups of threads called warps. A warp typically consists of 32 threads which must execute the same set of instructions, although on separate threads. Alternately, a CPU has far fewer cores that are much more flexible in their operation, excelling at quickly performing more complex serial computations. This is why GPUs have greater throughput when properly utilized. The second important difference is seen when comparing their memory spaces. Limited memory allocations and CPU–GPU communications cause a significant bottleneck in GPU-accelerated programs. Further study was required to properly take advantage of GPU resources. A comprehensive analysis of code performance and the model-specific features of turbulence constitutes the core of this work. In this study, a DNS simulation of HFIR channel turbulence was performed with the finite volume CFD code OpenFOAM v2112 and CUDA v11.0 on Red Hat Enterprise Linux v8.2. The OpenFOAM installation had AMGx integrated to enable GPU acceleration and utilizes the PETSc4FOAM library. The computational resources and the problem size were scaled on CPU and CPU + GPU architectures to gain a better understanding of the performance of a DNS problem on modern computing hardware. The study aimed to analyze the scaling of the code exclusively on CPUs and then to examine the scaling of the codes with GPU acceleration enabled. Scaling studies included CPU and GPU acceleration on a mesh of varying resolution to analyze the impact of problem size relative to computational resources. In the course of preparing the GPU configuration on Summit, mainly using the AMGX solvers, difficulties were encountered stemming from constant changes resulting from extensive ongoing development activities and the changing environment. This resulted in the inability to complete the GPU portion of the work. The code was compiled and tested, but production runs to assess acceleration were not performed because the used discretional compute time allocation expired as year-end approached. The Summit HPC platform is scheduled for decommissioning in 2024, making it unattractive for future use with Nvidia-based GPUs. Therefore, the work will be moved onto NERSC machines in FY24. An application was prepared and submitted, and sufficient node-hours were awarded to continue the research in the next calendar year. This report summarizes work performed thus far, which mostly focused on CPU OpenFOAM computing.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Resource Adequacy Considerations

This study examines the impact of reserve margin-based reliability assessment, as commonly used in capacity expansion models, on planning resource-adequate power systems under high penetrations of solar photovoltaics (PV). As a generation resource, PV is operationally different from the conventional dispatchable resources for which most capacity expansion models were designed. The question this study attempts to answer is whether large amounts of PV on a system (in this case, the Western Interconnection of North America) would bias the results of conventional reserve margin-based capacity expansion modeling towards an over- or under-provisioning of resource adequacy. This analysis used NREL’s Resource Planning Model (RPM) for capacity expansion modeling and NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) for resource adequacy assessment. RPM uses a reserve margin requirement to enforce resource adequacy. PRAS, a collection of tools for studying the resource adequacy of power systems and the adequacy contributions of individual resources on a probabilistic basis, was used to compute multiple resource adequacy metrics across a number of simulated scenarios and system representations with differing regional detail. In all cases, including high PV penetrations (up to 33% annual generation from PV, interconnection-wide), RPM was able to produce resource-adequate systems as measured by normalized expected unserved energy and loss-of-load expectation results from PRAS. The accuracy of reserve margin approaches depends heavily on the underlying assumptions informing the capacity credit assigned to variable and energy-limited resources, particularly when such resources are abundant in the modeled system. RPM’s standard methodology for estimating variable and flexible resources’ capacity contributions, which is based on the top 100 hours of net load, did not appear to systematically undervalue or overvalue variable generation relative to a more rigorous equivalent firm capacity assessment using PRAS, although both over- and under-valuations were observed in specific scenarios. In the worst cases, the top 100 hour method underestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by two percentage points, and overestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by five percentage points. Calculating capacity contributions based on the top 10 hours of net load systematically underestimated equivalent firm capacities at more modest PV penetrations, but was often a better approximation of equivalent firm capacity than the existing 100-hour approach in scenarios with higher PV penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Equilibrium Core Model for Micro Pebble Bed Reactors Using OpenMC

Estimating the equilibrium state for pebble bed reactors (PBRs) presents complex challenges as it requires simultaneous consideration of changes in the pebbles’ movement as well as their fuel compositions. Whereas traditional approaches use multigroup diffusion codes for neutronics calculations of PBRs’ equilibrium state, the double-heterogeneity of PBRs complicates neutron cross-section generation. Continuous-energy Monte Carlo (MC) methods are better suited for detailed PBR analysis because of their natural handling of double-heterogeneity, but they demand substantially more computational resources. Here, this study introduces a novel method for efficiently estimating the equilibrium state in small and micro PBRs with reduced computational cost. The method is anticipated to accelerate the processes of core design and performing parametric studies for utilizing advanced fuel and structural materials. The HTR-10 reactor design was used for validating the method’s predictions and evaluating its computational efficiency. When compared to reference calculation values from the literature, criticality (k-effective) was predicted to be approximately within the margin of error of the MC transport calculation, average core power density (in megawatts per cubic meter) was predicted within 2.5% relative error, and maximum thermal flux (10 13 n/cm 2 .s −1 ) was predicted within 1.8% relative error. The calculated inventory of fission products and fuel composition in the equilibrium core were within 15% and 16.6%, respectively, when compared to reported values from the literature. The difference is attributed to variance in the considered values of the core temperature, which was found to significantly affect the depletion analyses.

Equilibrium core↗