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An information model for use in software management estimation and prediction

This paper describes the use of cluster analysis for determining the information model within collected software engineering development data at the NASA/GSFC Software Engineering Laboratory. We describe the Software Management Environment tool that allows managers to predict development attributes during early phases of a software project and the modifications we propose to allow it to develop dynamic models for better predictions of these attributes.

Li, Ningda R.

Reliability Quantification of Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Components

The Advanced Stirling Convertor, is intended to provide power for an unmanned planetary spacecraft and has an operational life requirement of 17 years. Over this 17 year mission, the ASC must provide power with desired performance and efficiency and require no corrective maintenance. Reliability demonstration testing for the ASC was found to be very limited due to schedule and resource constraints. Reliability demonstration must involve the application of analysis, system and component level testing, and simulation models, taken collectively. Therefore, computer simulation with limited test data verification is a viable approach to assess the reliability of ASC components. This approach is based on physics-of-failure mechanisms and involves the relationship among the design variables based on physics, mechanics, material behavior models, interaction of different components and their respective disciplines such as structures, materials, fluid, thermal, mechanical, electrical, etc. In addition, these models are based on the available test data, which can be updated, and analysis refined as more data and information becomes available. The failure mechanisms and causes of failure are included in the analysis, especially in light of the new information, in order to develop guidelines to improve design reliability and better operating controls to reduce the probability of failure. Quantified reliability assessment based on fundamental physical behavior of components and their relationship with other components has demonstrated itself to be a superior technique to conventional reliability approaches based on utilizing failure rates derived from similar equipment or simply expert judgment.

Shah, Ashwin R.

Predicting near-saturated hydraulic conductivity in urban soils

Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) provide point predictions of soil hydraulic properties from more readily measured soil characteristics, yet uncertainties and biases in measurement methods, sampling distributions, and boundary conditions can limit accuracy when estimating near-saturated hydraulic conductivity (K(n)). These limitations may be particularly problematic in understudied urban landscapes that often contain altered hydraulic properties. To better treat deficiencies in PTF performance, we addressed three objectives, which were to: 1) develop PTFs to predict urban K(n), 2) assess bulk density and coarse fragments as explanatory variables; and 3) evaluate the predictive capability of these PTFs by comparing their output to measured hydraulic conductivity values from three other studies of urban soil hydraulics. We used artificial neural networks (ANN) and random forest (RF) approaches to predict urban K(n), with the training dataset including 307 tension infiltrometer tests and other measurements drawn from urban soil assessments in 11 U.S. cities. The PTFs utilized a hierarchy of inputs, starting with percentage sand, silt, clay, and then adding percentage coarse fragments and bulk density. The ANN models performed similar to the RF models, and all models exhibited similar or better predictive performance as models results collected from published articles. The inclusion of bulk density or coarse fragments did not improve accuracy over soil texture alone. Possible reasons for this result include low correlation between K(n) and bulk density and the exclusion of large voids during flow measurements with tension infiltrometers. The models have been made available as an open-source software package to encourage adoption by users working in urban systems.

Jinshi Jian

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (MXMCPy)

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (\mxmc {}) is a software package developed as a general capability for computing the statistics of outputs from an expensive, high-fidelity model by leveraging faster, low-fidelity models for speedup. Motivated by uncertainty propagation problems where classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is computationally intractable, various multi-model MC approaches have recently emerged that yield unbiased estimators with significantly reduced variance relative to MC for the same cost. These existing methods include multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC), multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC), and approximate control variates (ACV). Given a fixed computational budget and a collection of models with varying cost/accuracy, each method seeks a sample allocation strategy across the models that results in an estimator with optimal variance reduction. \mxmc {} is a versatile tool that enables convenient access to many existing multi-model MC approaches within one modular and extensible package. With \mxmc {}, users can easily compare existing methods to determine the best choice for their particular problem, while developers have a basis for implementing and sharing new variance reduction approaches. This report introduces the \mxmc {} software, providing a summary of the problem-solving workflow for users as well as a brief overview of the code layout for developers.

Geoffrey F Bomarito

Atmospheric Composition Forecast Model Evaluation Using Ozone Measurements Collected by the Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar

The Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar (LMOL) is a mobile ground based lidar system based at NASA Langley in Hampton, Virginia. Between 2022 and 2024, LMOL collected over 2500 hours of ozone measurements for a range of different atmospheric conditions, including calm days, stratospheric intrusions, surface frontal passages, and long-range transported wildfire smoke plumes. Here, the data is used to evaluate the forecast accuracy of NASA’s Global GEOS Composition Forecasting (GEOS-CF) model. GEOS-CF makes daily three-dimensional forecasts of trace gases and aerosol species. Overall, for calm periods, the forecast model predicts lower tropospheric ozone at NASA Langley with reasonable accuracy (within 20%). The model best predicts the timing and extent of stratospheric intrusions but often vary in the magnitude of the ozone mixing ratio. Among the other types of atmospheric conditions, there is more variability in the model forecasts. Based on this analysis, model forecasts are utilized to determine future data acquisition opportunities with the goal of providing feedback to the modeling teams, thereby enabling them to better understand the model biases and improve the model forecasts of ozone during these different atmospheric conditions.

Daniel B Phoenix

From Simulation to Reality With Random Noise

The challenging environment of autonomous vehicle (AV) navigation necessitates certain functions be performed by deep neural networks. Optimizing these models involves collecting vast quantities of domain-specific training data and ensuring that the dataset is representative of expected conditions. High-fidelity simulation plays a vital role in making this process feasible, allowing a wide range of scenarios to be explored at low cost. However, learning from simulation introduces subtle biases into models, which can degrade real-world performance in unpredictable ways. This effect can be mitigated with learning schemes specialized to bridge distributional shifts (transfer learning). Given the complex nature of these methods, the underlying models, and their environments, meaningfully evaluating performance is notstraight forward. Many unrelated factors can effect an improvement in generalization accuracy, but a full ablation analysis is often difficult. To tease out signal from noise, it is necessary to understand how transfer learning performance is affected by noise itself. The goals of this paper are (i) to establish a domain randomization baseline for a simple classification transfer learning task and (ii) to validate the RRAV testbed as a platform for further research in sim-to-real learning. We generate imagery from a simulation of NASA Ames Research Center and train a small convolutional neural network (ConvNet) to classify position relative to a centerline. Further models are trained with different types of noise progressively added to the data. The models are deployed aboard the on-site test vehicle to test real-world performance. In our experiments, we find that such naive domain randomization raises sim-to-real accuracy from 64% to 79%, while training directly on real data yields an 89% accuracy ceiling. These results suggest that the isolated mechanism of domain randomization can significantly improve generalization.

simulation

Sensitivity of Marine Warm Cloud Retrieval Statistics to Algorithm Choices: Examples from MODIS Collection 6

The optical and microphysical structure of warm boundary layer marine clouds is of fundamental importance for understanding a variety of cloud radiation and precipitation processes. With the advent of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on the NASA EOS Terra and Aqua platforms, simultaneous global/daily 1km retrievals of cloud optical thickness and effective particle size are provided, as well as the derived water path. In addition, the cloud product (MOD06/MYD06 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively) provides separate effective radii results using the l.6, 2.1, and 3.7 ~m spectral channels. Cloud retrieval statistics are highly sensitive to how a pixel identified as being "notclear" by a cloud mask (e.g., the MOD35/MYD35 product) is determined to be useful for an optical retrieval based on a 1-D cloud model. The Collection 5 MODIS retrieval algorithm removed pixels associated with cloud'edges as well as ocean pixels with partly cloudy elements in the 250m MODIS cloud mask - part of the so-called Clear Sky Restoral (CSR) algorithm. Collection 6 attempts retrievals for those two pixel populations, but allows a user to isolate or filter out the populations via CSR pixel-level Quality Assessment (QA) assignments. In this paper, using the preliminary Collection 6 MOD06 product, we present global and regional statistical results of marine warm cloud retrieval sensitivities to the cloud edge and 250m partly cloudy pixel populations. As expected, retrievals for these pixels are generally consistent with a breakdown of the ID cloud model. While optical thickness for these suspect pixel populations may have some utility for radiative studies, the retrievals should be used with extreme caution for process and microphysical studies.

Platnick, Steven

Resolving Ice Cloud Optical Thickness Biases Between CALIOP and MODIS Using Infrared Retrievals

Despite its importance as one of the key radiative properties that determines the impact of upper tropospheric clouds on the radiation balance, ice cloud optical thickness (IOT) has proven to be one of the more challenging properties to retrieve from space-based remote sensing measurements. In particular, optically thin upper tropospheric ice clouds (cirrus) have been especially challenging due to their tenuous nature, extensive spatial scales, and complex particle shapes and light scattering characteristics. The lack of independent validation motivates the investigation presented in this paper, wherein systematic biases between MODIS Collection 5 (C5) and CALIOP Version 3 (V3) unconstrained retrievals of tenuous IOT (< 3) are examined using a month of collocated A-Train observations. An initial comparison revealed a factor of two bias between the MODIS and CALIOP IOT retrievals. This bias is investigated using an infrared (IR) radiative closure approach that compares both products with MODIS IR cirrus retrievals developed for this assessment. The analysis finds that both the MODIS C5 and the unconstrained CALIOP V3 retrievals are biased (high and low, respectively) relative to the IR IOT retrievals. Based on this finding, the MODIS and CALIOP algorithms are investigated with the goal of explaining and minimizing the biases relative to the IR. For MODIS we find that the assumed ice single scattering properties used for the C5 retrievals are not consistent with the mean IR COT distribution. The C5 ice scattering database results in the asymmetry parameter (g) varying as a function of effective radius with mean values that are too large. The MODIS retrievals have been brought into agreement with the IR by adopting a new ice scattering model for Collection 6 (C6) consisting of a modified gamma distribution comprised of a single habit (severely roughened aggregated columns); the C6 ice cloud optical property models have a constant g approx. = 0.75 in the mid-visible spectrum, 5-15% smaller than C5. For CALIOP, the assumed lidar ratio for unconstrained retrievals is fixed at 25 sr for the V3 data products.This value is found to be inconsistent with the constrained (predominantly nighttime) CALIOP retrievals. An experimental data set was produced using a modified lidar ratio of 32 sr for the unconstrained retrievals (an increase of 28%), selected to provide consistency with the constrained V3 results. These modifications greatly improve the agreement with the IR and provide consistency between the MODIS and CALIOP products. Based on these results the recently released MODIS C6 optical products use the single habit distribution given above, while the upcoming CALIOP V4 unconstrained algorithm will use higher lidar ratios for unconstrained retrievals.

Cloud

A Multidisciplinary Modeling Approach of Plant Gas Exchange in Reduced Gravity Environments

In-situ food production is a necessary step for human exploration of the solar system and requires a deep understanding of plant growth in reduced gravity environments. In particular, the lack of buoyancy-driven convection changes the gas exchange at the leaf surface, which decreases photosynthesis and transpiration rates, and ultimately biomass production. To understand the intricate relations between physical, chemical, and biochemical processes, the following methodology combines the development of a mechanistic model of plant growth in reduced gravity environments, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, and experiments in different time frames.The model presented here is a coupled mass and energy balance using the single round leaf assumption, including gravity as an entry parameter, and the leaf surface temperature as an output variable. Measures of the leaf surface temperature using infra-red cameras allow for a computation of the transpiration rate. This approach was followed to design a parabolic flight experiment, which performed 7 flights, and enabled data collection for model validation in different gravity and ventilation settings on a short time frame. Current measures of carbon assimilation and transpiration rate at the leaf and canopy level using an infra-red gas analyzer (Li-6800) in 1g lab conditions on several species will enable a validation on longer time frames and further calibration of the model. CFD studies both on the parabolic flight and on the lab experimental set-up allow the precise assessment of ventilation above the canopy and plants' leaves.Ultimately, this work will provide recommendations for the design of future plant growth hardware, especially on the lowest adequate ventilation for optimal plant growth in reduced gravity environments, as well as assessing biomass and oxygen production rates on planetary surfaces and space stations. This work was funded by CNES, CNRS, Clermont Auvergne Metropole, and NASA Space Biology through NASA postdoctoral program / USRA.

Poulet, Lucie

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that comprise ASAC. This report describes an Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model (CBM) that meets these requirements. The ASAC CBM is distinguished from many of the aviation cost-benefit models by its exclusive focus on commercial air carriers. The model considers such benefit categories as time and fuel savings, utilization opportunities, reliability and capacity enhancements, and safety and security improvements. The model distinguishes between benefits that are predictable and those that occur randomly. By making such a distinction, the model captures the ability of air carriers to reoptimize scheduling and crew assignments for predictable benefits. In addition, the model incorporates a life-cycle cost module for new technology, which applies the costs of nonrecurring acquisitions, recurring maintenance and operation, and training to each aircraft equipment type independently.

Gaier, Eric M.

Marshall vehicle-engineering simulation system (MARVES)

Computer language was developed to furnish programmers with standardized system for handling digital computer simulation of trajectories. System contains collection of models which represent problem to be solved and description of one or more events peculiar to the problem.

Keenum, W. E.

Models of subjective response to in-flight motion data

Mathematical relationships between subjective comfort and environmental variables in an air transportation system are investigated. As a first step in model building, only the motion variables are incorporated and sensitivities are obtained using stepwise multiple regression analysis. The data for these models have been collected from commercial passenger flights. Two models are considered. In the first, subjective comfort is assumed to depend on rms values of the six-degrees-of-freedom accelerations. The second assumes a Rustenburg type human response function in obtaining frequency weighted rms accelerations, which are used in a linear model. The form of the human response function is examined and the results yield a human response weighting function for different degrees of freedom.

Rudrapatna, A. N.

A trade-off analysis design tool. Aircraft interior noise-motion/passenger satisfaction model

A design tool was developed to enhance aircraft passenger satisfaction. The effect of aircraft interior motion and noise on passenger comfort and satisfaction was modelled. Effects of individual aircraft noise sources were accounted for, and the impact of noise on passenger activities and noise levels to safeguard passenger hearing were investigated. The motion noise effect models provide a means for tradeoff analyses between noise and motion variables, and also provide a framework for optimizing noise reduction among noise sources. Data for the models were collected onboard commercial aircraft flights and specially scheduled tests.

Jacobson, I. D.

Simulation of the Galileo spacecraft axial - Delta-V algorithm

Preliminary results are presented from the analysis of the Galileo spacecraft axial delta-V algorithm. The Galileo spacecraft is a dual spin interplanetary spacecraft which will study the four Galilean moons of Jupiter as well as the Jovian environment and atmosphere. In order to achieve orbit about Jupiter and accurately deliver the probe to the planet's upper atmosphere, the Galileo spacecraft must be capable of performing many trajectory corrections or delta-V maneuvers. Twelve 10 Newton thrusters and one 400 Newton engine are utilized for this purpose. There are many maneuver modes and control algorithms available to the spacecraft. In this paper only the analysis of the axial delta-V algorithm will be discussed. The analysis consists of two parts: an analytic study and a simulation study. The analytic results are based on rigid body dynamics, while the simulation includes the first order effect of the flexible magnetometer boom and nutation damper. The simulation utilizes a program developed at JPL which allows flexible body effects to be simulated by modeling a collection of rigid bodies attached together by hinges, springs and dampers. In this preliminary study of the Galileo only two rigid bodies were used in the simulation, but many more can and will be used in the final tests. In this analysis, the algorithm appears to be working correctly and the analytic and simulation results agree very well.

Longuski, J. M.

Dynamic loads on twin jet exhaust nozzles due to shock noise

Acoustic near field data were collected with model single and twin jet nozzles to determine if closely spaced nozzles produce higher acoustic loading than do single nozzles. The tests were spurred by structural failure of the B-1 exhaust nozzle external flaps and similar damage on the F-15. The test was performed using two 5/8 in. ID pipes machined and placed side-by-side to mimic B-1 nozzles. A microphone mounted on the internozzle fairing measured acoustic levels near the nozzle exit plane. The nozzles oscillated significantly more than did a single nozzle over a wide range of nozzle pressure ratios. Acoustic levels in the dual jets exceeded single jet noise by as much as 20 dB, making acoustic resonance a definite candidate for structural damage in the twin jet configuration.

Norum, T. D.

Ion properties of the high-latitude middle-atmosphere

Investigations of high-latitude, middle-atmosphere ion properties have been conducted using rocket probe techniques. Electrodynamics studies have addressed: mesospheric dynamics and small-scale structure (the MAC/EPSILON Campaign during October-November 1977); ionization effects associated with highly energetic greater than or equal to 1 MeV) precipitating electrons (the MAC/REP Program during May 1990); and the characteristics of noctilucent cloud (NLC) and polar mesosphere summer echo (PMSE) regions (the NLC-91 Campaign during July-August 1991). Recent developments in Gerdien condenser probe theory, using computational fluid dynamics to model ion collection, have resulted in more accurate evaluation of the ion mobilities and number densities. Measurements of very small ion mobilities are thought to indicate an aerosol ion presence in the upper mesosphere.

Li, C.

PAIRS, The GIS-Based Incident Response System for Pennsylvania, and NASA

Over the past several years the Pennsylvania Departments of Environmental Protection (DEP), Health (DOH), and Agriculture (PDA) built the GIs-based Pennsylvania West Nile Surveillance System. That system has become a model for collecting data that has a field component, laboratory component, reporting and mapping component, and a public information component. Given the success of the West Nile Virus System and the events of September 11, 2001, DEP then embarked on the development of the Pennsylvania Incident Response System, or PAIRS. PAIRS is an effective GIs-based approach to providing a system for response to incidents of any kind, including terrorism because it is building upon the existing experience, infrastructure and databases that were successfully developed to respond to the West Nile Virus by DEP, DOH, and PDA. The proposed system can be described as one that supports data acquisition, laboratory forensics, decision making/response, and communications. Decision makers will have tools to view and analyze data from various sources and, at the same time, to communicate with the large numbers of people responding to the same incident. Recent collaborations with NASA partners are creating mechanisms for the PAIRS system to incorporate space-based and other remote sensing geophysical parameters relevant to public health assessment and management, such as surface temperatures, precipitation, land cover/land use change, and humidity. This presentation will describe the PAIRS system and outline the Pennsylvania-NASA collaboration for integration of space-based data into the PAIRS system.

Conrad, Eric

The sleep of healthy people--a diary study

To provide baseline data for various research studies at the University of Pittsburgh over a 10-year period, 266 healthy subjects (144 male, 122 female, aged 20-50 years) meeting certain criteria each completed a 14-night sleep diary. For each night, the diary allowed the subjective measurement of bedtime, wake time, time in bed (TIB), sleep efficiency, number of minutes of wake after sleep onset (WASO), alertness on awakening, and percentage of morning needing an alarm (or a person functioning as one). Weeknight versus weekend night differences in TIB (TIBdiff), weekday altertness, and reliance on alarms were examined as possible indicators of sleep debt. In addition, general descriptive data were tabulated. On average, bedtimes were at 23:48 and wake times at 07:23, yielding a mean TIB of 7 hours 35 minutes. As expected, bedtimes and wake times were later on weekend nights than on weeknights. Bedtimes were 26 minutes later, wake times 53 minutes later, yielding a mean weekend TIB increase of 27 minutes. Overall, subjects perceived their sleep latency to be 10.5 minutes, reported an average of one awakening during the night (with an average of 6.4 minutes of WASO), had a diary sleep efficiency of 96.3%, and awoke with an alterness rating of 69.5%. These variables differed little between weeknight and weekend nights. Subjects used an alarm (or a person functioning as an alarm) on 60.9% nights overall, 68.3% on weeknights, 42.5% on weekends. When TIBdiff was used as an estimate of sleep debt (comparing subjects with TIBdiff > 75 minutes with those with a TIBdiff < 30 minutes), the group with more "catch-up sleep" on weekends had shorter weeknight TIB durations (by about 24 minutes) and relied more on an alarm for weekday waking (by about 22%), indicating the possible utility of these variables as sleep debt indices.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur