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DOE OSTI2026

What Technical Choices Matter to Characterize Heat Wave and Cold Snap Events in Support of Bulk Power Grid Reliability Studies?

Extreme weather events, such as Heat Waves (HW) and Cold Snaps (CS), pose significant risks to the power grid. The United States (U.S.) Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 896 mandates regional coordination standards that account for extreme thermal events. However, the lack of a universal definition for extreme thermal events may lead to inconsistent compliance efforts among neighboring entities, undermining the reliability of the transmission system. This study directly addresses this challenge by systematically evaluating how varying technical choices in defining HW and CS fundamentally impact the characterization and ranking of extreme events for power grid reliability studies. We used 12 event definitions and multiple temperature spatial aggregation approaches to construct historical (1980–2024) regional extreme thermal event libraries across North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) subregions in the conterminous U.S. We examined the sensitivity of event characteristics (e.g., duration, frequency, intensity, and spatial coverage) to different definitions. While some definitions produced similar libraries and top event rankings, definitions based on moving-window-averaged temperatures yielded markedly different characteristics. Spatial aggregation methods had minimal impact on heat wave or cold snap intensity, frequency and duration but significantly influenced spatial coverage. The top events identified across different aggregation methods were consistent, but their ranking order varied. These findings offer critical insights for characterizing and selecting extreme thermal events and for supporting local and cross-regional coordination as required by reliability standards.

Wan, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Monin‐Obukhov Similarity Theory Wind Profiles in Convective Storm Environments and Cold Pools at the ARM Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Observatory

Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) is widely used in numerical weather prediction to model surface fluxes of momentum, heat, and water vapor. However, MOST is based on assumptions of steady state and horizontally homogeneous turbulence that can lead to prediction errors in and around convective storms. To understand the nature of these errors, we used wind and eddy covariance flux measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Observatory to evaluate MOST wind profiles in fair-weather and convective storm environments, specifically those of mesoscale convective systems and ordinary thunderstorms. MOST wind profiles agreed well with observations in fair-weather cases, while in convective storm cases the theory systematically overestimated shear in cold pools after gust front passage. Surface layer stability was found to be important in assessing MOST within convective storm environments. The overestimation of wind shear in cold pools suggests the role of non-local fluxes in transferring momentum downward. We discuss reasons for differences and agreement with past studies, and conclude with recommendations to improve prediction of surface winds and fluxes in convective storm simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modification of Ni-20Cr corrosion dealloying behavior in molten fluorides via cold work induced plastic deformation

The corrosion dealloying behavior of cold-worked (CW) Ni20Cr alloy (wt%) was studied in molten LiF-NaF-KF (or FLiNaK) salts at 600 °C, equal to a homologous temperature (TH) of 0.52. Alloys were cold-rolled to achieve reductions of thickness of 10%, 30%, and 50% introducing plastic deformation and a high density of dislocations. Potentiostatic holds (Eapplied) were applied in two different electrode potential regimes. At 1.75VK+/K$${\text{V}}_{{\text{K}}^{+}/{\text{K}}}$$, Cr dealloying to Cr(II) and Cr(III) is predominant, while at 1.90 VK+/K$${\text{V}}_{{\text{K}}^{+}/{\text{K}}}$$, both Ni and Cr are oxidized in molten FLiNaK at 600 °C. In these potential regimes, dealloyed Ni20Cr displayed bicontinuous porosity within the grain interior and at grain boundaries, driven by the high driving force for Cr dissolution and sustained by defect mediated outward solid state diffusion of Cr in parallel with surface diffusion of Ni. The bicontinuous porous structure developed was observed to undergo further coarsening and densification of the Ni-rich ligaments at a higher electrode potential. The main effect of CW observed is the introduction of plastic deformation and dislocation substructures that serve as short-circuit paths for Cr solid state diffusion to surfaces exposed to FLiNaK. This modified the evolution of the bicontinuous porous structure which increased with CW substantially. Kinetic analysis reveals that the Cr dealloying at +1.75 VK+/K$${\text{V}}_{{\text{K}}^{+}/{\text{K}}}$$ and 1.90 VK+/K$${\text{V}}_{{\text{K}}^{+}/{\text{K}}}$$ is initially charge transfer controlled, except for the 50% CW condition at 1.90 VK+/K$${\text{V}}_{{\text{K}}^{+}/{\text{K}}}$$, where the process becomes limited by slow Cr defect mediated bulk diffusion. The rate determining factors are explored and compared to experimental results.

Chan, Ho Lun↗

DOE OSTI2024

The disproportionate impact of enhanced evaporation from melting arctic sea ice on cold-season land precipitation trends

Diminishing Arctic sea ice has led to enhanced evaporation from the Arctic marginal seas (AMS), which is expected to alter precipitation over land. In this work, AMS evaporation is numerically tracked to quantify its contribution to cold-season (October–March) precipitation over land in the Northern Hemisphere during 1980–2021. Results show a significant 32% increase in AMS moisture contribution to land precipitation, corresponding to a 16% increase per million square km loss of sea ice area. Especially over the high-latitude land, despite the fractional contribution of AMS to precipitation being relatively low (8%), the augmented AMS evaporation contributed disproportionately (42%) to the observed upward trend in precipitation. Notably, northern East Siberia exhibited a substantial rise in both the amount and fraction of extreme snowfall sourced from the AMS. Our findings underscore the importance of the progressively ice-free Arctic as an important contributor to the escalating levels of cold-season precipitation and snowfall over northern high-latitude land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Molecular beam scattering of neon from flat jets of cold salty water

Molecular beam scattering experiments are carried out to study collisions between Ne atoms (E i = 24.3 kJ mol-1) and the surface of a cold salty water (8 m LiBr(aq), 230 K) flat jet. Translational energy distributions are collected as a function of scattering angle using a rotatable mass spectrometer. Impulsive scattering and thermal desorption contribute to the overall scattering distributions, but impulsive scattering dominates at all three incidence angles explored. Highly super-specular scattering is observed in the impulsive scattering channel that is attributed to anisotropic momentum transfer to the liquid surface. The thermal desorption channel exhibits a cos θ angular distribution. Compared to Ne scattering from dodecane, fractional energy loss in the impulsive scattering channel is much larger across a wide range of deflection angles. A soft-sphere model is applied to investigate the kinematics of energy transfer between the scatterer and liquid surface. Fitting to this model yields an effective surface mass of 250-60 +100 amu and internal excitation of 11.8 ± 1.6 kJ mol-1, both of which are considerably larger than for Ne/dodecane. It thus appears that energy transfer to cold salty water is more efficient than to a dodecane liquid surface, a result attributed to the extensive hydrogen-bonded network of liquid water and roughness of the liquid surface.

Yang, Walt↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing cold nuclear matter with energy correlators

The future electron-ion collider (EIC) will produce the first-ever high energy collisions between electrons and a wide range of nuclei, opening a new era in the study of cold nuclear matter. Quarks and gluons produced in these collisions will propagate through the dense nuclear matter of nuclei, imprinting its structure into subtle correlations in the energy flux of final state hadrons. In this article, we apply recent developments from the field of jet substructure, namely the energy correlator observables, to decode these correlations and provide a new window into nuclear structure. The energy correlators provide a calibrated probe of the scale dependence of vacuum quantum chromodynamics (QCD), enabling medium modifications to be imaged and interpreted as a function of scale. Using the eHIJING parton shower to simulate electron-nucleus collisions, we demonstrate that the size of the nucleus is imprinted as an angular scale in the correlators, with a magnitude that is visible for realistic EIC kinematics. We can observe the size difference between the proposed EIC nuclear targets 3 He, 4 He, 12 C, 40 Ca, 64 Cu, 197 Au, and 238 U, showing that the energy correlators can image femtometer length scales using asymptotic energy flux. Our approach offers a unified view of jet substructure across collider experiments, and provides numerous new theoretical tools to unravel the complex dynamics of QCD in extreme environments, both hot and cold.

Electron-ion collisions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Grain Size and Interstitial Content on Recrystallization in Nb after Cold Rolling

A fully recrystallized microstructure with a fine grain size can improve the performance of superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities produced from high-purity Nb (ASTM B393–18 Type 5 Nb) while providing mechanical strength. Recrystallization depends on impurity content, initial microstructure, deformation state, and annealing conditions. To better understand how fine-grained, fully recrystallized microstructures may be produced, the recrystallization behaviors of Type 5 and Type 2 Nb materials were studied. Type 5 Nb specimens were produced with both fine and coarse initial grain sizes. All were cold rolled and then annealed under vacuum for one hour to determine the rolling reductions and temperatures required for recrystallization. The recrystallized fraction exceeded 95% in fine-grained Type 5 Nb rolled to a 30% or greater thickness reduction and then annealed at 800 °C or higher. The coarse grained Type 5 Nb required greater rolling reductions to produce any recrystallized grains at 800 °C. The higher interstitial content of the Type 2 Nb required a temperature of 1000 °C or higher to reach a recrystallized fraction greater than 95% in specimens rolled to a 60% reduction. Recrystallization is more easily achieved during annealing at a given temperature for a set time by increasing rolling reduction, decreasing interstitial content, and decreasing initial grain size prior to cold rolling. In conclusion, to avoid grain growth following recrystallization, which increases grain size, the minimum time and temperature necessary for complete recrystallization should be applied.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Common Thermoplastic Polymers in High-Pressure Cycling Hydrogen Under Ambient and Cold Environments as Applicable to the Hydrogen Infrastructure

Thermoplastic polymers are required to perform unfailingly under stringent conditions of changing pressures (35 MPa to 70 MPa) and temperatures (-40°C to +85°C) in storage and fueling operations. Although diffusivity in glassy polymers appear to be an order of magnitude lower than elastomers, polymer microstructural attributes such as degree of crystallinity and presence of polar and non-polar groups on the main chain with and without branching can play a substantial role in influencing their behaviors in hydrogen environments. In the work described here, the effect of high-pressure hydrogen cycling on PEEK, PTFE, PA11, HDPE, POM (and different commercial grades of these polymers) under ambient and cold (-40°C) conditions is addressed. Ex-situ characterization for polymer changes included density measurements for impact of hydrogen retention, hardness changes using nanoindentation, storage modulus and glass transition changes using dynamic mechanical and thermal analysis (DMTA), degree of crystallization with Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and tensile testing following ASTM D412. In other evaluations, solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infra-red spectroscopy (ATRFTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and X-ray CT results are presented. The overall impact of these evaluations is to establish a technical basis for the behaviors of common thermoplastics in cycling hydrogen environments under ambient and cold temperatures while establishing the relationship between polymer structure-based properties and hydrogen transport effects.

Menon, Nalini C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-performance silicon photonic single-sideband modulators for cold-atom interferometry

The laser system is the most complex component of a light-pulse atom interferometer (LPAI), controlling frequencies and intensities of multiple laser beams to configure quantum gravity and inertial sensors. Its main functions include cold-atom generation, state preparation, state-selective detection, and generating a coherent two-photon process for the light-pulse sequence. To achieve substantial miniaturization and ruggedization, we integrate key laser system functions onto a photonic integrated circuit. Our study focuses on a high-performance silicon photonic suppressed-carrier single-sideband (SC-SSB) modulator at 1560 nanometers, capable of dynamic frequency shifting within the LPAI. By independently controlling radio frequency (RF) channels, we achieve 30-decibel carrier suppression and unprecedented 47.8-decibel sideband suppression at peak conversion efficiency of –6.846 decibels (20.7%). We investigate imbalances in both amplitudes and phases between the RF signals. Using this modulator, we demonstrate cold-atom generation, state-selective detection, and atom interferometer fringes to estimate gravitational acceleration, g ≈ 9.77 ± 0.01 meters per second squared, in a rubidium ( 87 Rb) atom system.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cold-air outbreaks in the continental US: Connections with stratospheric variations

Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere extreme cold events continue to occur despite overall winter warming trends. These events have been linked to weakened stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) states. In this study, we analyze both the upper and lower polar stratosphere for links to extreme winter cold and snow in the continental US, finding two SPV variations of interest. The first features an upper-level vortex displaced toward western Canada and linked to northwestern US severe winter weather. The second features a weakened upper-level vortex displaced toward the North Atlantic and linked to central-eastern US severe winter weather. Both variations feature lower-level stretched vortices and stratospheric wave reflection. Since 2015, a northwestward shift in severe winter weather across the US is concurrent with an increase in the frequency of the westward-focused variation relative to the eastward-focused variation and a shift to more negative phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cold freeze out of superheavy dark matter and Hubble tension

We present a unified framework, the "X miracle", in which dark matter consists of superheavy, nonthermal X particles whose relic abundance is determined not by the conventional weak-scale, semi-relativistic ("hot") freeze-out of WIMPs, but by annihilation or decay occurring within the smallest and earliest gravitationally bound objects. Unlike thermal WIMPs, which decouple at velocities of order 0.3c with relic abundance ρ∞ set by weak-scale interactions, X particles are produced nonthermally with an initial overabun dance ρ ini >> ρ ∞ . They become nonrelativistic extremely early, redshift to ultra-cold velocities, allowing collapse into compact bound structures characterized by a novel quantum gravitational scale, r X = 4$\hbar$ 2 $/Gm^3_X$ = 10 −13 m $\hbar$$/m_Xc$, much larger than the Compton wavelength. The framework predicts a particle mass of 10 12 GeV and an enhanced cross section of 10 −21 m 3 /s. Overlapping particle wavefunctions in these compact structures drive annihilation or decay into additional radiation, leading to a "cold" freeze-out that converts most of ρ ini into radiation while leaving a relic density ρ ∞ . Solutions to the Boltzmann equation indicate that an extreme ("big") depletion, with only one particle in a billion surviving, yields an additional radiation contribution $ΔN_{eff}$ ≈ 0.4, which could help alleviate the Hubble tension. For particles of 10 12 GeV, the scenario predicts a dark coupling constant α X = 0.09 that is responsible for an instanton-induced decay process, consistent with current UHECR bounds. Early collapse at 10 −6 s may release binding energy as high-frequency (100kHz) gravitational waves or ultralight GUT-scale axions (10 −9 eV). Superheavy sterile neutrinos provide a natural particle realization, linking dark matter to neutrino mass and baryogenesis. If gravitationally produced, this framework favors high-scale inflation and effi cient reheating. The "X miracle" thus demonstrates that dark matter need not be weak-scale: gravitational dynamics can control freeze-out and evolution, producing multi-messenger observational signatures in UHECRs, axions, gravitational waves, and small-scale structures.

Xu, Zhijie Jay [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2024

X-Band Radar and Surface-Based Observations of Cold-Season Precipitation in Western Colorado’s Complex Terrain

Abstract Hydrologic processes associated with intermountain cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin have important impacts on avalanche forecasting and water resource management. However, traditional weather radar networks struggle with observations in this complex terrain. Data collected during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and the Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) and its sister campaign, Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River watershed of western Colorado, are used to examine a multistorm period from 23 December 2021 to 1 January 2022 that contributed 35% of the total winter precipitation in this watershed. Dual-polarization X-band radar and disdrometer measurements show ∼30-mm differences in precipitation amount at two sites in proximity over four distinct storm events within the period. Wind patterns, synoptic forcings, microphysical characteristics of precipitation, and surface meteorology are analyzed to explain the observed spatial variability of cold-season precipitation in complex mountainous terrain. Analysis shows that differences over time within this event are mainly accounted for by synoptic forcings, such as frontal passages; differences between sites are accounted for by the impact of variations in local wind patterns on precipitation microphysics. Patterns of surface precipitation intensity are compared and found to be correlated with X-band radar signatures; a relationship between a strong dendritic growth stage and intense low-density surface precipitation is reinforced by this study. This relationship demonstrates the importance of particle growth mechanisms on surface snowfall patterns in high-altitude complex terrain, underscoring the importance of realistic microphysical parameterizations. Significance Statement The amount and density of snowpack from western Colorado winter storms have significant impacts on water resources in the Upper Colorado River basin. Snowpack characteristics are affected by small-scale differences in how snow forms in the atmosphere. These differences are hard to study in the complex terrain of the Rockies, but data from the SPLASH and SAIL field campaigns allows us to investigate how snow crystal formation and mountain-driven wind patterns affect snow near the surface. Our study finds that snow crystal growth varies over small space and time scales and is likely controlled by the terrain beneath a given location and resultant local wind patterns. These results imply that predicting snowpack in the Rockies requires properly representing local wind patterns and crystal growth processes in models.

Heflin, Stella↗

DOE OSTI2024

Monitoring the corrosion resistance of cold-spray coatings with membrane-based sensors

In this presentation, the MBES shows the ability to detect the change in exposed environment even with cold-spray coatings. Corrosion rates from the cold-spray coating were comparable to a 316 stainless steel sample. Defects in the coating did not impact sensor performance in terms of corrosion rate or water content detection. Energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy was used to document ion migration into the membrane.

Rendon, Arnaldo↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electrification Options for Multi-Family Water Heating in Cold Climates - Final Report

In multi-family buildings, large water storage tanks in centralized domestic hot water (DHW) systems can serve as thermal energy storage (TES) batteries to mitigate grid impact. These systems offer demand shift and efficiency benefits, significantly reducing peak power consumption, particularly in cold climates. This study evaluates the load-shifting benefits of a centralized heat pump water heater (HPWH) system equipped with a CO2 heat pump in multi-family buildings through simulation. The heat pump system and water storage tank are sized using design-day sizing. A finite-element-based stratified tank model and CO2 heat pump performance map from a commercial DHW product are used. Annual simulations are conducted to assess the benefits of the centralized DHW system for energy efficiency improvements, load shifting, and emission reductions. These simulations incorporate utility tariffs and marginal grid emission data from Los Angeles and Chicago. In Los Angeles, using a water tank as a thermal battery achieves 7.4% utility cost savings and 10.2% emission reduction. In Chicago, compared to HPWH conventional operation without preheating, TES-enabled central HPWH provides 15% utility cost savings and 13% emission reduction. The case study demonstrates that the demand reduction potential of central CO2 HPWHs is significant in cold climate regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cold Plasma IC Report

This past year we completed the simulation campaign in support of our magnetospheric cold plasma research project. This project aimed to develop the next-generation particle instruments to measure the properties of the cold particle populations in the Earth’s magnetosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cold Spray Field Deployment Evaluation for Double-Shell Tank 241-AN-105

This report highlights the documentation that supported Cold Spray field deployment in double-shell tank (DST) 241-AN-105 (AN-105) in July of 2025. This work was a collaborative effort between VRC Metal Systems (VRC), Robotic Technologies of Tennessee (RTT), the Hanford Tank Waste Operation and Closure (H2C) Chief Technology Office, H2C Tank Farm Projects Engineering, H2C Tank and Pipeline Integrity (TAPI) and H2C Ultrasonic Testing (UT) Operations & Support. Since 2019, the Chief Technology Office has been developing Cold Spray technology for refurbishing Hanford’s DSTs (RPP-RPT-65015). This technology is particularly relevant for addressing localized corrosion within the annulus of the DSTs by propelling metal powder particles at supersonic speeds to targeted areas. This process results in high-quality coatings characterized by high bond strength and low porosity result.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scoping Study of Integrated Geothermal CO 2 Heat Pump and Water Well System in Cold Climate Region

This study evaluates the feasibility of using ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) integrated with water wells for residential heating demands in cold regions of the United States. Four different heat pump systems were evaluated and compared: a CO 2 air-source heat pump (ASHP), a R-410A ASHP, a CO 2 GSHP integrated with well water, and a R-410A GSHP integrated with well water. Simulations were conducted at both equipment and building integration levels, followed by a nationwide analysis across 10 selected cities. Results indicate that integrating GSHP technology with existing water wells (e.g., artesian, bedrock, drilled, and collector wells) is a feasible heating solution because of their high flow rates, good water quality, stable temperatures, and low environmental impact. Although R-410A systems demonstrate higher efficiency, CO 2 systems are more suitable for heating from contamination-free and energy security perspective. The CO 2 GSHPs maintain better performance in colder climates compared with that of ASHPs, providing higher coefficient of performance and environmental benefits because CO 2 refrigerant leakage would not contaminate well water. A national analysis confirms that CO 2 GSHPs outperform furnaces, especially in cold climates, making them a promising solution for residential heating.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scoping Study of Integrated Geothermal CO 2 Heat Pump and Water Well System in Cold Climate Region (CRADA Final Report)

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗