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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Rising methane emissions from boreal lakes due to increasing ice-free days

Lakes account for about 10% of the boreal landscape and are responsible for approximately 30% of biogenic methane emissions that have been found to increase under changing climate. However, the quantification of this climate-sensitive methane source is fraught with large uncertainty under warming climate conditions. Only a few studies have addressed the mechanism of climate impact on the increase of northern lake methane emissions. This study uses a large observational dataset of lake methane concentrations in Finland to constrain methane emissions with an extant process-based lake biogeochemical model. We found that the total current diffusive emission from Finnish lakes is 0.12±0.03 Tg CH4 yr-1 and will increase by 26-59% by the end of this century depending on different warming scenarios. We discover that while warming lake water and sediment temperature plays an important role, the climate impact on ice-on periods is a key indicator of future emissions. We conclude that these boreal lakes remain a significant methane source under the warming climate within this century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the interactive stratospheric ozone (O3v2) module in the E3SM version 1 Earth system model

Stratospheric ozone affects climate directly as the predominant heat source in the stratosphere and indirectly through chemical reactions controlling other greenhouse gases. The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) implemented a new ozone chemistry module that improves the simulation of the sharp tropopause gradients, replacing a version based partly on long-term average climatologies that poorly represented heating rates in the lowermost stratosphere. The new O3v2 module extends seamlessly into the troposphere and preserves the naturally sharp cross-tropopause gradient, with 20 %–40 % less ozone in this region. Additionally, O3v2 enables the diagnosis of stratosphere–troposphere exchange flux of ozone, a key budget term lacking in E3SMv1. Here, we evaluate key features in ozone abundance and other closely related quantities in atmosphere-only E3SMv1 simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs, years 1990–2014), comparing them with satellite observations of ozone and also with the University of California, Irvine chemistry transport model (UCI CTM) using the same stratospheric chemistry scheme but driven by European Centre forecast fields for the same period. In terms of stratospheric column ozone, O3v2 shows reduced mean bias and improved northern midlatitude variability, but it is not quite as good as the UCI CTM. As expected, SST-forced E3SMv1 simulations cannot synchronize with observed quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs), but they do show the typical QBO pattern seen in column ozone. This new O3v2 E3SMv1 model mostly retains the same climate state and climate sensitivity as the previous version, and we recommend its use for other climate models that still use ozone climatologies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparing different generations of idealized solar geoengineering simulations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Abstract. Solar geoengineering has been receiving increased attention in recent years as a potential temporary solution to offset global warming. One method of approximating global-scale solar geoengineering in climate models is via solar reduction experiments. Two generations of models in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) have now simulated offsetting a quadrupling of the CO2 concentration with solar reduction. This simulation is idealized and designed to elicit large responses in the models. Here, we show that energetics, temperature, and hydrological cycle changes in this experiment are statistically indistinguishable between the two ensembles. Of the variables analyzed here, the only major differences involve highly parameterized and uncertain processes, such as cloud forcing or terrestrial net primary productivity. We conclude that despite numerous structural differences and uncertainties in models over the past two generations of models, including an increase in climate sensitivity in the latest generation of models, the models are consistent in their aggregate climate response to global solar dimming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Association Between Cloud Droplet Number over the Summer Southern Ocean and Air Mass History

The cloud properties and governing processes in Southern Ocean marine boundary layer clouds have emerged as a central issue in understanding the Earth's climate sensitivity. While our understanding of Southern Ocean cloud feedbacks have evolved in the most recent climate model intercomparison, the background properties of simulated summertime clouds in the Southern Ocean are not consistent with measurements due to known biases in simulating cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. This paper presents several case studies collected during the Capricorn 2 and Marcus campaigns held aboard Australian research vessels in the Austral Summer of 2018. Combining the surface–observed cases with MODIS data along forward and backward air mass trajectories, we demonstrate the evolution of cloud properties with time. These cases are consistent with multi–year statistics showing that long trajectories of air masses over the Antarctic ice sheet are critical to creating high droplet number clouds in the high latitude summer Southern Ocean. We speculate that secondary aerosol production via the oxidation of biogenically derived aerosol precursor gasses over the high actinic flux region of the high latitude ice sheets is fundamental to maintaining relatively high droplet numbers in Southern Ocean clouds during Summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing CESM2 Clouds and Their Response to Climate Change Using Cloud Regimes

Abstract The Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), has a very high climate sensitivity driven by strong positive cloud feedbacks. To evaluate the simulated clouds in the present climate and characterize their response with climate warming, a clustering approach is applied to three independent satellite cloud products and a set of coupled climate simulations. Using k -means clustering with a Wasserstein distance cost function, a set of typical cloud configurations is derived for the satellite cloud products. Using satellite simulator output, the model clouds are classified into the observed cloud regimes in both current and future climates. The model qualitatively reproduces the observed cloud configurations in the historical simulation using the same time period as the satellite observations, but it struggles to capture the observed heterogeneity of clouds which leads to an overestimation of the frequency of a few preferred cloud regimes. This problem is especially apparent for boundary layer clouds. Those low-level cloud regimes also account for much of the climate response in the late twenty-first century in four shared socioeconomic pathway simulations. The model reduces the frequency of occurrence of these low-cloud regimes, especially in tropical regions under large-scale subsidence, in favor of regimes that have weaker cloud radiative effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of surface temperature to oceanic forcing via q-Flux Green’s function experiments. Part III: asymmetric response to warming and cooling

Climate response is often assumed to be linear in climate sensitivity studies. However, by examining the surface temperature (TS) response to pairs of oceanic forcings of equal amplitude but opposite sign in a large set of local q-flux perturbation experiments with CAM5 coupled to a slab, we find strong asymmetry in TS responses to the heating and cooling forcings, indicating a strong nonlinearity intrinsic to the climate system examined. Regardless of where the symmetric forcing is placed, the cooling response to the negative forcing always exceeds the warming to the positive forcing, implying an intrinsic inclination towards cooling of our current climate. Thus, the ongoing global warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases may have already been alleviated by the asymmetric component of the response. The common asymmetry in TS response peaks in high latitudes, especially along sea ice edges, with notable seasonal dependence. Decomposition into different radiative feedbacks through a radiative kernel indicates that the asymmetry in the TS response is realized largely through lapse rate and albedo feedbacks. Further process interference experiments disabling the seasonal cycle and/or sea ice reveal that the asymmetry originates ultimately from the presence of the sea ice component and is further amplified by the seasonal cycle. The fact that a pair of opposite tropical q-flux forcings can excite very similar asymmetric response as a pair placed at 55°S strongly suggests the asymmetric response is a manifestation of an internal mode of the climate model system.

Liu, Fukai↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Radiative Convective Equilibrium to Explore Clouds and Climate in the Community Atmosphere Model

Abstract Characteristics of, and fundamental differences between, the radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE) climate states following the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) protocols in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and version 6 (CAM6) are presented. This paper explores the characteristics of clouds, moisture, precipitation and circulation in the RCE state, as well as the tropical response to surface warming, in CAM5 and CAM6 with different parameterizations. Overall, CAM5 simulates higher precipitation rates that result in larger global average precipitation, despite lower outgoing longwave radiation compared to CAM6. Differences in the structure of clouds, particularly the amount and vertical location of cloud liquid, exist between the CAM versions and can, in part, be related to distinct representations of shallow convection and boundary layer processes. Both CAM5 and CAM6 simulate similar peaks in cloud fraction, relative humidity, and cloud ice, linked to the usage of a similar deep convection parameterization. These anvil clouds rise and decrease in extent in response to surface warming. More generally, extreme precipitation, aggregation of convection, and climate sensitivity increase with warming in both CAM5 and CAM6. This analysis provides a benchmark for future studies that explore clouds, convection, and climate in CAM with the RCEMIP protocols now available in the Community Earth System Model. These results are discussed within the context of realistic climate simulations using CAM5 and CAM6, highlighting the usefulness of a hierarchical modeling approach to understanding model and parameterization sensitivities to inform model development efforts.

Reed, Kevin A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contrasting responses of woody and grassland ecosystems to increased CO 2 as water supply varies

Experiments show that elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ) often enhances plant photosynthesis and productivity, yet this effect varies substantially and may be climate sensitive. Understanding if, where and how water supply regulates CO 2 enhancement is critical for projecting terrestrial responses to increasing atmospheric CO 2 and climate change. Here, using data from 14 long-term ecosystem-scale CO 2 experiments, we show that the eCO 2 enhancement of annual aboveground net primary productivity is sensitive to annual precipitation and that this sensitivity differs between woody and grassland ecosystems. During wetter years, CO 2 enhancement increases in woody ecosystems but declines in grass-dominated systems. Consistent with this difference, woody ecosystems can increase leaf area index in wetter years more effectively under eCO 2 than can grassland ecosystems. Overall, and across different precipitation regimes, woody systems had markedly stronger CO 2 enhancement (24%) than grasslands (13%). Finally, we developed an empirical relationship to quantify aboveground net primary productivity enhancement on the basis of changes in leaf area index, providing a new approach for evaluating eCO 2 impacts on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A numerical examination of the effect of sulfide dissolution on silicate weathering

Silicate weathering regulates climate on geological time scales as a net, climate-sensitive sink of atmospheric CO 2 . On the other hand, sulfuric acid produced through sulfide dissolution affects silicate weathering, diminishing its effectiveness as a climate regulator based on evidence from river chemistry. This study takes a theoretical approach to quantitatively examine the effect of sulfide dissolution, coupling a one-dimensional model of pyrite weathering to that of albite transformation to kaolinite. The coupled model reveals that when the reaction front of sulfide is deeper than that of silicates reacting with CO 2 , the silicate-weathering feedback on climate is not directly affected by sulfide dissolution, but only indirectly through oceanic processes such as reverse weathering and carbonate deposition. In turn, when sulfide dissolution occurs within zones of CO 2 -silicate reactions close to the surface, the feedback between climate and silicate weathering can be significantly weakened because sulfuric acid competes effectively with carbonic acid in mineral dissolution. As the depth of the sulfide reaction front can be changed by variations in water table depth, the latter feedback weakening could have occurred in concert with climate-change-driven water table fluctuations, amplifying atmospheric CO 2 variations during the Phanerozoic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Underestimated marine stratocumulus cloud feedback associated with overly active deep convection in models

Cloud feedback remains the largest source of uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Many studies have attempted to narrow uncertainties in cloud feedback and ECS by proposing observable metrics with high skill at predicting future climate, referred to as emergent constraints. These constraints are often associated with clouds, convection, and circulation, and are interrelated. However, physical explanations for these connections remain unclear. Here, we propose a new mechanism relating convection and clouds across multiple climate models. Some models show overly active deep convection on daily timescales in the subtropical low cloud regions, which contributes to weaker subsidence inversion and smaller amounts of low-level clouds. Such models predict smaller shortwave (SW) cloud feedback. Using precipitation frequency in these regions as an emergent constraint, encapsulating this mechanism, models with lower SW cloud feedback (<0.50 W m -2 °C - 1) are found to exhibit erroneously frequent convection. Our results suggest that further improvements in understanding and better modeling of cloud and convective systems are necessary for accurate climate predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The DOE E3SM Model Version 2: Overview of the Physical Model and Initial Model Evaluation

Abstract This work documents version two of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SMv2 is a significant evolution from its predecessor E3SMv1, resulting in a model that is nearly twice as fast and with a simulated climate that is improved in many metrics. We describe the physical climate model in its lower horizontal resolution configuration consisting of 110 km atmosphere, 165 km land, 0.5° river routing model, and an ocean and sea ice with mesh spacing varying between 60 km in the mid‐latitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles. The model performance is evaluated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima simulations augmented with historical simulations as well as simulations to evaluate impacts of different forcing agents. The simulated climate has many realistic features of the climate system, with notable improvements in clouds and precipitation compared to E3SMv1. E3SMv1 suffered from an excessively high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. In E3SMv2, ECS is reduced to 4.0 K which is now within the plausible range based on a recent World Climate Research Program assessment. However, a number of important biases remain including a weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, deficiencies in the characteristics and spectral distribution of tropical atmospheric variability, and a significant underestimation of the observed warming in the second half of the historical period. An analysis of single‐forcing simulations indicates that correcting the historical temperature bias would require a substantial reduction in the magnitude of the aerosol‐related forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency under drought stress: a case study of the Helan Mountain region, northwest China

Context Water use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental ecological indicator links carbon assimilation and water loss in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding its responses to drought stress is essential for adaptive ecosystem management, particularly in climate-sensitive mountain landscapes. Objectives This study aimed to investigate drought-driven variations in WUE across major vegetation types in the Helan Mountain region of Northwest China. Specifically, we sought to identify dominant ecological drivers of WUE variability and to disentangle their relative importance and causal pathways. Methods We quantified WUE using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and the Drought Severity Index (DSI) data from 2001 to 2020. To examine WUE – drought relationships across contrasting vegetation types, we employed a spatially explicit analytical framework integrating Random Forest (RF) modeling, partial correlation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results Regional WUE exhibited relatively stable interannual dynamics, yet pronounced spatial heterogeneity that was strongly modulated by drought conditions. Vegetation properties, particularly Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emerged as the dominant determinants of WUE, with NDVI alone explaining over 20% of its spatial variance in forest and grassland during non-drought periods. SEM analyses revealed that climate forcing influenced WUE mainly through indirect pathways mediated by soil moisture availability and vegetation structural dynamics, rather than through direct climatic controls. Among all regulating factors, LAI acted as the central control node governing ecosystem carbon–water coupling. In contrast, short-term climatic stress, especially atmospheric demand and drought duration, exerted weak or negative direct effects on WUE. Ecosystem-specific responses were observed, with croplands mainly regulated by soil water availability, whereas forests and grasslands showed more sensitive to atmospheric drought stress. Together, these results reveal a hierarchical control framework where soil–vegetation interactions mediate climate impacts on WUE, driving strong spatial heterogeneity in drought responses across mountain landscapes. Conclusions Our findings highlight the pivotal role of indirect drought effects mediated by vegetation and soil processes in shaping ecosystem WUE. The identified soil–vegetation–climate regulatory hierarchy provides mechanistic insight into landscape–scale drought sensitivity and supports integrated modeling approaches for evaluating ecosystem resilience and sustainable management in arid mountain regions.

China↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Anthropogenic Signal Identified in the Seasonal Cycle of Tropospheric Temperature

Previous work identified an anthropogenic fingerprint pattern in T AC (x, t), the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT), but did not explicitly consider whether fingerprint identification in satellite T AC (x, t) data could have been influenced by real-world multidecadal internal variability (MIV). Here we address this question here using large ensembles (LEs) performed with five climate models. LEs provide many different sequences of internal variability noise superimposed on an underlying forced signal. Despite differences in historical external forcings, climate sensitivity, and MIV properties of the five models, their T AC (x, t) fingerprints are similar and statistically identifiable in 239 of the 240 LE realizations of historical climate change. Comparing simulated and observed variability spectra reveals that consistent fingerprint identification is unlikely to be biased by model underestimates of observed MIV. Even in the presence of large (factor of 3–4) intermodel and inter-realization differences in the amplitude of MIV, the anthropogenic fingerprints of seasonal cycle changes are robustly identifiable in models and satellite data. This is primarily due to the fact that the distinctive, global-scale fingerprint patterns are spatially dissimilar to the smaller-scale patterns of internal T AC (x, t) variability associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The robustness of the seasonal cycle detection and attribution results shown here, taken together with the evidence from idealized aquaplanet simulations, suggest that basic physical processes are dictating a common pattern of forced T AC (x, t) changes in observations and in the five LEs. The key processes involved include GHG-induced expansion of the tropics, lapse-rate changes, land surface drying, and sea ice decrease.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric teleconnection processes linking winter air stagnation and haze extremes in China with regional Arctic sea ice decline

Abstract. Recent studies suggested significant impacts of boreal cryosphere changes on wintertime air stagnation and haze pollution extremes in China. However, the underlying mechanisms of such a teleconnection relationship remains unclear. Here we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to investigate dynamic processes leading to atmospheric circulation and air stagnation responses to Arctic sea ice changes. We conduct four climate sensitivity experiments by perturbing sea ice concentrations (SIC) and corresponding sea surface temperature (SST) in autumn and early winter over the whole Arctic and three subregions in the climate model. The results indicate distinct responses in circulation patterns and regional ventilation to the region-specific Arctic changes, with the largest increase of both the probability (by 132 %) and the intensity (by 30 %) of monthly air stagnation extremes being found in the experiment driven by SIC and SST changes over the Pacific sector of the Arctic (the East Siberian and Chukchi seas). The increased air stagnation extremes are mainly driven by an amplified planetary-scale atmospheric teleconnection pattern that resembles the negative phase of the Eurasian (EU) pattern. Dynamical diagnostics suggest that convergence of transient eddy forcing in the vicinity of Scandinavia in winter is largely responsible for the amplification of the teleconnection pattern. Transient eddy vorticity fluxes dominate the transient eddy forcing and produce a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly near Scandinavia and wave train propagation across Eurasia to the downstream regions in East Asia. The piecewise potential vorticity inversion analysis reveals that this long-range atmospheric teleconnection of Arctic origin takes place primarily via the middle and upper troposphere. The anomalous ridge over East Asia in the middle and upper troposphere worsens regional ventilation conditions by weakening monsoon northwesterlies and enhancing temperature inversions near the surface, leading to more and stronger air stagnation and pollution extremes over eastern China in winter. Ensemble projections based on state-of-the-art climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) corroborate this teleconnection relationship between high-latitude environmental changes and midlatitude weather extremes, though the tendency and magnitude vary considerably among each participating model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather

Abstract Regional climate models can be used to examine how past weather events might unfold under different climate conditions by simulating analogue versions of those events with modified thermodynamic conditions (i.e., warming signals). Here, we apply this approach by dynamically downscaling a 40-year sequence of past weather from 1980–2019 driven by atmospheric re-analysis, and then repeating this 40-year sequence a total of 8 times using a range of time-evolving thermodynamic warming signals that follow 4 80-year future warming trajectories from 2020–2099. Warming signals follow two emission scenarios (SSP585 and SSP245) and are derived from two groups of global climate models based on whether they exhibit relatively high or low climate sensitivity. The resulting dataset, which contains 25 hourly and over 200 3-hourly variables at 12 km spatial resolution, can be used to examine a plausible range of future climate conditions in direct reference to previously observed weather and enables a systematic exploration of the ways in which thermodynamic change influences the characteristics of historical extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2)

An overview of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is provided, including a discussion of the challenges encountered during its development and how they were addressed. In addition, an evaluation of a pair of CESM2 long pre-industrial control and historical ensemble simulations is presented. These simulations were performed using the nominal 1° horizontal resolution configuration of the coupled model with both the “low-top” (40 km, with limited chemistry) and “high-top” (140 km, with comprehensive chemistry) versions of the atmospheric component. CESM2 contains many substantial science and infrastructure improvements and new capabilities since its previous major release, CESM1, resulting in improved historical simulations in comparison to CESM1 and available observations. These include major reductions in low latitude precipitation and short-wave cloud forcing biases; better representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; better El Niño – Southern Oscillation-related teleconnections; and a global land carbon accumulation trend that agrees well with observationally-based estimates. Most tropospheric and surface features of the low- and high-top simulations are very similar to each other, so these improvements are present in both configurations. CESM2 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.1-5.3°C, larger than in CESM1, primarily due to a combination of relatively small changes to cloud microphysics and boundary layer parameters. In contrast, CESM2’s transient climate response of 1.9-2.0°C is comparable to that of CESM1. The model outputs from these and many other simulations are available to the research community, and theyrepresent CESM2’s contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Danabasoglu, Gokhan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models

Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are relevant for the global climate. Our findings show that models predict a consistent shift towards the ascent regime in response to El Nino-like sea surface warming. Models diverge in terms of the radiative impact due to differences in cloud characteristics in ascent and subsidence regimes. Using the observed relationship between circulation regime and cloud radiative effect, we find a reduction in the regional mean cloud feedback estimate from 0.77 to 0.22 W m -2 K -1 , though this does not substantially lessen the model spread in total feedback. Pathways to reduce this spread include: improving confidence in the regional ocean warming pattern, and using observations and models to understand cloud type and circulation interactions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change—which will make most springs relatively “early”—could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗