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DOE OSTI2023

Projections of winter polynyas and their biophysical impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica

Abstract This study investigates winter polynyas in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica where several polynyas are known to form. Coastal polynyas are areas of lower sea ice concentration and/or thickness along the coast that are otherwise surrounded by more extensive, thicker sea ice pack. Polynyas are also locations where organisms can exploit both the ice substrate and pelagic resources. Using a self organizing map algorithm, we identify polynya events in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE). The neural network algorithm is able to identify polynya events without imposing an ice concentration or thickness threshold, as is often done when identifying polynyas. The CESM2-LE produces a wintertime polynya feature comparable in size and location to the Ross Sea polynya, and during polynya events there are large turbulent heat fluxes and export of sea ice from the Ross Sea. In the CESM2-LE polynya event frequency is projected to decrease sharply in the later twentyfirst century, leading to increasing sea ice concentrations and thicknesses in the region. The drivers of the polynya frequency decline are likely both large scale circulation changes and local atmosphere and ocean feedbacks. If declines in wintertime polynya frequency over the twentyfirst century do occur they may impact Antarctic Bottom Water formation and local net primary productivity. Thus, better understanding potential local and unexpected sea ice changes in the Ross Sea is important for both assessing climate system impacts and ecological impacts on the Ross Sea ecosystem, which is currently protected by an internationally recognized marine protected area.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

North‐East Peri‐Tethyan Water Column Deoxygenation and Euxinia at the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum

Abstract The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is associated with climatic change and biological turnover. It shares features with the Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) of the Mesozoic, such as transient global warming and biogeochemical perturbations. However, the PETM experienced a more muted expansion of marine anoxia compared to the Mesozoic OAEs (especially OAE2), with geographically limited evidence for photic zone euxinia (PZE). We explore the extent and drivers of marine deoxygenation during the PETM using biomarkers for water column euxinia and anoxia as well as an intermediate complexity Earth system model (cGEnIE). These reveal that the water column in the North‐East Peri‐Tethys became anoxic, with euxinic conditions reaching the photic zone (PZE) during the PETM. Our model shows that euxinia developed due to a global increase in the ocean nutrient inventory with concomitant oxygen consumption, similar to findings for OAE2. The particularly strong regional response in the NE Peri‐Tethys appears to arise from a combination of global CO 2 ‐weathering forcing, regionally restricted circulation and upwelling of sulphidic thermocline waters. Unlike OAE2, anoxia and PZE do not become widespread in our PETM simulations, consistent with new and existing geochemical and biological proxy data. This globally muted response could result from reduced biogeochemical feedbacks to climate forcing relative to the mid‐Cretaceous climate. Our observations suggest that similar mechanisms operated in response to disparate Cenozoic (PETM) and Mesozoic (OAEs) transient global warming events, while also highlighting that background conditions are crucial in modulating the sensitivity of Earth's system to them.

Behrooz, L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of a Test-Bed for Testing and Refining EarthEn’s Supercritical CO 2 Based Energy Storage System

EarthEn’s energy storage concept leverages supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) as a working fluid and relies on compact, high-performance components operating at elevated pressures and temperatures. To accelerate component development and reduce technical risk prior to larger-scale demonstrations, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) developed a 100 kW-scale sCO 2 test-bed under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with EarthEn (CRADA NO. NFE-24-10050). The objective of the work was to design and construct a flexible experimental facility capable of reproducing key thermodynamic state points and heat-transfer conditions relevant to EarthEn’s thermal energy storage (TES) cycle, with particular emphasis on enabling development and evaluation of next-generation heat exchangers and TES concepts. The test-bed consists of a closed-loop sCO 2 circulation system housed within an open-topped enclosure. In its as-installed configuration, dense-phase sCO 2 is recirculated through a printed circuit recuperator, an electrically heated section, a throttling device used to simulate turbine expansion, and a water-cooled printed circuit heat exchanger that rejects heat to the building chilled-water system before returning to the pump. The pump is driven by a variable frequency drive, enabling controlled adjustment of flow and operating point. A comprehensive instrumentation suite was integrated to support both safe operation and high-quality data collection. Installed sensors include Coriolis flow meters for sCO 2 flow rate and density, resistance temperature detectors and thermocouples distributed throughout the loop (including the heated section and key heat exchanger ports), and pressure transducers for absolute and differential pressure measurements. The facility was designed to support high-pressure (19 MPa nominal) and high-temperature (575°C nominal) operation with credited overpressure protection provided by a rupture disk. Nominal operating conditions were selected to support 100 kW-class testing while maintaining flexibility for non-heated and heated shakedown, control development, and future integration of advanced TES test sections. In parallel with facility development, a system-level thermal-hydraulic model was created using Modelica-based tools to support component sizing, anticipate performance over targeted test conditions, and establish a framework for future model calibration against experimental data. At the conclusion of the project performance period, the facility was in final assembly, and the pressure boundary was nearly completed. However, several practical challenges associated with high-pressure/high-temperature systems and specialized component procurement impacted schedule and prevented initial pump-driven operation and full commissioning within the available resources. This report documents the as-built design, operating capabilities, and instrumentation, and it summarizes key lessons learned related to heater fabrication and testing, first-of-a-kind assembly factors, specialty flange supply constraints, and fill pump corrective actions. Finally, it outlines a phased plan for future commissioning and experimental campaigns, including control and instrumentation shakedown, heater characterization, model calibration, and testing at state points representative of EarthEn’s TES cycle.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mesoscale convective systems in the third pole region: Characteristics, mechanisms and impact on precipitation

The climate system of the Third Pole region, including the (TP) and its surroundings, is highly sensitive to global warming. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are understood to be a vital component of this climate system. Driven by the monsoon circulation, surface heating, and large-scale and local moisture supply, they frequently occur during summer and mostly over the central and eastern TP as well as in the downstream regions. Further, MCSs have been highlighted as important contributors to total precipitation as they are efficient rain producers affecting water availability (seasonal precipitation) and potential flood risk (extreme precipitation) in the densely populated downstream regions. The availability of multi-decadal satellite observations and high-resolution climate model datasets has made it possible to study the role of MCSs in the under-observed TP water balance. However, the usage of different methods for MCS identification and the different focuses on specific subregions currently hamper a systematic and consistent assessment of the role played by MCSs and their impact on precipitation over the TP headwaters and its downstream regions. Here, we review observational and model studies of MCSs in the TP region within a common framework to elucidate their main characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and impact on seasonal and extreme precipitation. We also identify major knowledge gaps and provide suggestions on how these can be addressed using recently published high-resolution model datasets. Three important identified knowledge gaps are 1) the feedback of MCSs to other components of the TP climate system, 2) the impact of the changing climate on future MCS characteristics, and 3) the basin-scale assessment of flood and drought risks associated with changes in MCS frequency and intensity. A particularly promising tool to address these knowledge gaps are convection-permitting climate simulations. Therefore, the systematic evaluation of existing historical convection-permitting climate simulations over the TP is an urgent requirement for reliable future climate change assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A clustering-based approach to ocean model–data comparison around Antarctica

The Antarctic Continental Shelf seas (ACSS) are a critical, rapidly changing element of the Earth system. Analyses of global-scale general circulation model (GCM) simulations, including those available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6), can help reveal the origins of observed changes and predict the future evolution of the ACSS. However, an evaluation of ACSS hydrography in GCMs is vital: previous CMIP ensembles exhibit substantial mean-state biases (reflecting, for example, misplaced water masses) with a wide inter-model spread. Because the ACSS are also a sparely sampled region, grid-point-based model assessments are of limited value. Our goal is to demonstrate the utility of clustering tools for identifying hydrographic regimes that are common to different source fields (model or data), while allowing for biases in other metrics (e.g., water mass core properties) and shifts in region boundaries. We apply K-means clustering to hydrographic metrics based on the stratification from one GCM (Community Earth System Model version 2; CESM2) and one observation-based product (World Ocean Atlas 2018; WOA), focusing on the Amundsen, Bellingshausen and Ross seas. When applied to WOA temperature and salinity profiles, clustering identifies “primary” and “mixed” regimes that have physically interpretable bases. For example, meltwater-freshened coastal currents in the Amundsen Sea and a region of high-salinity shelf water formation in the southwestern Ross Sea emerge naturally from the algorithm. Both regions also exhibit clearly differentiated inner- and outer-shelf regimes. The same analysis applied to CESM2 demonstrates that, although mean-state model biases in water mass T–S characteristics can be substantial, using a clustering approach highlights that the relative differences between regimes and the locations where each regime dominates are well represented in the model. CESM2 is generally fresher and warmer than WOA and has a limited fresh-water-enriched coastal regimes. Given the sparsity of observations of the ACSS, this technique is a promising tool for the evaluation of a larger model ensemble (e.g., CMIP6) on a circum-Antarctic basis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lagrangian Decomposition of the Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport at 26.5°N

Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a critical role in the global climate system through the redistribution of heat, freshwater and carbon. At 26.5°N, the meridional heat transport has traditionally been partitioned geometrically into vertical and horizontal circulation cells; however, attributing these components to the AMOC and Subtropical Gyre (STG) flow structures remains widely debated. Using water parcel trajectories evaluated within an eddy‐rich ocean hindcast, we present the first Lagrangian decomposition of the meridional heat transport at 26.5°N. We find that water parcels recirculating within the STG account for 37% (0.36 PW) of the total heat transport across 26.5°N, more than twice that of the classical horizontal gyre component (15%). Our findings indicate that STG heat transport cannot be meaningfully distinguished from that of the basin‐scale overturning since water parcels cooled within the gyre subsequently feed the northward, subsurface limb of the AMOC.

Tooth, Oliver J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) C-band Radar Deployment Field Campaign Report

Convective clouds play a critical role in the Earth’s climate system, acting as sinks of total water in the atmospheric column through precipitation, thereby contributing to the atmospheric energy balance. They serve as a primary mechanism for the transfer of heat, moisture, and momentum through the troposphere, significantly impacting the large-scale atmospheric circulation and local environment, and affecting the probability of subsequent cloud formation (e.g., Hartmann et al. 1984, Su et al. 2014, Sherwood et al. 2014). Convective characteristics including convective core size (reflectivity and updraft), cloud lifetime, precipitation intensity, total precipitation amount, precipitation efficiency, and lightning flash rates can be strongly related to environmental factors (e.g., wind shear, humidity). Since cumulus clouds evolve rapidly, their microphysical and dynamical properties and life cycles are challenging to resolve in models, and even in observations (e.g., Fridlind et al. 2017, Ladino et al. 2017).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Biophysical model of eelgrass and water quality in Coos Bay, OR shows greater mitigation potential for ocean acidification than hypoxia

Seagrass beds provide important ecosystem services and are valued, in part, for their potential to mediate stressors such as ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) for sensitive species. However, the susceptibility of seagrasses to anthropogenic impacts and recent declines motivate the need to better understand the drivers of seagrass and the water quality consequences that occur with variation in seagrass abundance. To meet this need, we leveraged existing monitoring data (water quality and seagrass), hydrodynamic circulation model, and biogeochemical model framework with seagrass submodel, to produce a biophysical model of Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, U.S. The model includes biogeochemical processes involving water quality, plankton, seagrass, and sediment-water interactions. Ecosystem models like this are useful for evaluating complex estuarine systems because they allow us to extend our understanding of system dynamics beyond existing observations and perform experiments to identify the processes driving observed patterns. We used the biophysical model of Coos Bay to evaluate the dynamics of water quality and native eelgrass (Zostera marina) under three eelgrass abundance scenarios (zero eelgrass, current extent, and maximum observed extent) to elucidate the relationship between eelgrass and OAH. Including eelgrass in the Coos Bay model produced results that more closely resembled water quality observations - dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were more dynamic in simulations with eelgrass, often having both higher highs and lower lows. While there were some areas of the estuary where DO improved with the addition of eelgrass to the model there was overall a small net increase in harmful DO conditions (based on a salmon physiological threshold). In contrast, ocean acidification conditions, pH and calcium carbonate saturation state for aragonite (Ω), were improved (based on oyster requirements) with the addition of eelgrass - although the magnitude of improvement differed seasonally and spatially. Our new model represents a useful tool - one which accounts for and controls the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes - to evaluate conditions that confer resilience or enhance vulnerability to OAH in an important Pacific Northwest coastal estuary and results can inform the OAH-related dynamics occurring in other eastern boundary current estuaries.

FVCOM-ICM↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Overview of Non-LWR Vessel Cooling Systems for Passive Decay Heat Removal (Technical Letter Final Report)

The following report provides a technical review of various reactor vessel cooling system (VCS) concepts under consideration for decay heat removal (DHR) in non-light water advanced reactor designs. This review focuses on ex-vessel designs, including the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS), the Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS), and hybrid iterations, using both air and water cooling to achieve their heat removal function. Based on a literature review of publicly available sources published between 1979 and 2021, a technical summary is presented detailing existing and planned VCS design options, their applicability to specific reactor type, and review of authored research and development studies. Following an assessment of the availability of data and modeling tools, an evaluation was performed analyzing their likely performance during normal, degraded, and accident conditions, including reliability, stability, and longevity. With renewed consideration of air-based DHR systems by some US vendors, there is a need to fully understand the complexities inherent to natural circulation systems, and more importantly, how they may influence safety-related heat removal functions and system performance. For DHR systems that rely on air-based mode of cooling, this entails quantification of the impacts of low flow conditions during start-up, relative elevations of inlet and outlet ducts for below-grade installations, effects of the use of multiple parallel chimneys for redundancy, and impact of weather conditions at the plant site. For systems relying on water-based mode cooling, reliance on limited coolant inventory in an event of pipe break or extended duration accident scenarios, sensitivities related to stability of boiling flow and heat transfer conditions, and quantification of full-scale structural vibrations on balance of plant structures are among the complicating factors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Closed Bay-Breeze Circulation and Its Lifecycle From TRACER With a New Orienteering Tape Recorder Diagram

A closed bay-breeze circulation (BBC) followed by a gulf-breeze front (GBF) was observed on 10 September 2022 during the Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) TRACER campaign. Using high-resolution X-band Scanning Cloud Radar (XSACR) and a newly developed orienteering tape recorder diagram, the study analyzed radar reflectivity and Doppler velocity to identify anomalies and track the evolution of these circulations. The BBC, a mesoscale system approximately 30-km long, 30-km wide, and 2-km deep, formed from enhanced horizontal convective rolls along the Galveston Bay coast, progressing northwestward under a 6 m s−1 onshore flow anomaly and reaching 1.5 km depth with return flow aloft. The inland penetration speed was 2 m s−1, driven by an observed 6-9 K land-water temperature contrast. The GBF, coupled to the BBC, intensified with additional southerly flow, penetrating further inland after the BBC collapsed. Passing over the TRACER field site, both fronts significantly impacted boundary layer thermodynamics, dynamics, and aerosol concentration. The BBC event exhibited four lifecycle stages-formation, development, maturation, and dissipation-driven by solar heating, wind field rotation, and interactions with convective eddies and the GBF. This study provides insights into the inland evolution of coastal breeze circulations and their interactions with environmental processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

GCAM v4.3 SSP-RCP-GCM Output Products

Supplemental dataset to: Graham N.T., M.I. Hejazi, M. Chen, E. Davies, J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, and S. Turner, et al. 2020. "Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 1:Article No. 014007. PNNL-SA-151297. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b This analysis makes deterministic classifications of how, when water resources are limited and constrained, the human and climate systems interact. The relative effects of both systems on water scarcity are quantified at global and basin scales across 15 global futures that include five different socioeconomic conditions (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) and four different climatic conditions (the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). These 15 scenarios are used to first analyze a 'Human Alone' component by isolating the human impact on future scarcity. This is accomplished by holding all climate variables to their 2005 levels while altering socioeconomic growth and technological change. General circulation model (GCM) derived climate impacts for five models are applied to establish 75 'Human and Climate' scenarios which allows for the quantification of climate impacts. Climatic impacts to water supply, agricultural productivity and change, hydropower availability, and building energy demands are applied from 5 different bias-corrected GCMs to make a suite of 75 climate runs. By subtracting the human derived impacts from the 'Human Alone' scenarios, from the 'Human and Climate' scenarios the climate impact is isolated. First, the drivers of future water scarcity are evaluated by isolating the impacts that both humans and climate have while accounting for feedbacks between humans, energy, and land. Secondly, the simultaneous impacts that human and climate systems have on water scarcity are analyzed by determining whether each system is increasing or decreasing scarcity in all global water basins. Below we describe the GCAM model, the scenario components, climate derived impacts, and the calculations of scarcity changes and attribution. This study uses the global change assessment model (GCAM), with inclusions of water constraints to both renewable and nonrenewable sources of water, to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. GCAM links socioeconomics, the energy system, land-use change, climate, and the water sector. GCAM is a market-equilibrium model that allows for prices to be adjusted within each time step to ensure that the supply and demand of goods and services remains equilibrated at each time step allowing for simultaneous market clearing across sectors. This study accounts for a limited supply of water by employing cost resource curves across all 235 basins that follow a logit formulation to determine the share of each water source (renewable surface water, nonrenewable groundwater, and desalinated water) needed to meet the water demands within all basins. As depletion of various water sources increases the extraction price increases, which leads to compounding price increases on the goods and services that require higher-priced water sources.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Design of a Meso-Scale Test of a Fracture Thermal Energy Storage (FTES) System

This paper will present the characterization, scaling, and design of an intermediate-scale field test of a fracture thermal energy storage system (FTES). Seasonal storage of thermal energy has the potential to both significantly reduce the total energy requirements for heating and cooling of buildings, but also allow for the flexibility to store thermal energy from intermittent sources. With approximately half of global energy consumption currently being used for heating and cooling, this represents an important path to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The concept of FTES is to drill two or more wells into a low permeability formation, generally at a depth of less than a few hundred meters, and then generate hydraulic fractures to create flow paths for water to circulate between the wells. Hot or cold thermal energy can then be stored in the surrounding rock mass by circulating hot or cold water through the fractures, which will heat or cool the rock mass. To recover the stored energy, ambient temperature water can be then circulated through the fractures, which will then be heated or cooled by the rock mass. Fractures inherently have a very large ratio of surface area to volume. This allows for very high heat fluxes to and from the rock mass to be achieved despite the relatively low thermal conductivity of most geologic formations. Because large fractures can be made with low-cost equipment and with only inexpensive and environmentally safe materials such as water and sand, the cost to construct even large FTES systems is expected to be quite low. This paper will present what the performance requirements, size, and operating conditions of a full-scale system to operate a commercial building. The paper will describe how these full-scale system characteristics will be used as a design basis for an intermediate-scale FTES test to be conducted at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, SD.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Indirect climate impacts of the Hunga eruption

Injection of sulfur and water vapour by the Hunga volcanic eruption significantly altered chemical composition and radiative budget of the stratosphere. Yet, whether the eruption could also affect surface climate, especially via indirect pathways, remains poorly understood. Here we investigate these effects using large ensembles of simulations with the CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system model, incorporating interactive chemistry and aerosols in both coupled ocean and atmosphere-only configurations. We find some statistically significant extratropical regional climate responses to the eruption driven by circulation changes; these are partially linked to the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its associated teleconnections, and to perturbations of the stratospheric polar vortex in both hemispheres. The stratospheric anomalies affect surface climate through modulating the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere (up to three boreal winters following the eruption) and the Southern Annular Mode in the Southern Hemisphere in late 2023. The latter is partly related to a concurrent reduction in Antarctic ozone, as increased stratospheric aerosols and water vapor reach the polar vortex. Our study suggests that the eruption could have had a non-negligible influence on regional surface climate, and discusses the mechanisms via which such an influence could occur. However, the results also highlight that this forcing is relatively weak compared to interannual variability, and is subject to model uncertainties in the representation of key processes. More research is thus needed before definitive statements on the role of the eruption in contributing to surface climate and weather events in the following years are made.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO 2 -enriched climate

The global monsoon is characterised by transitions between pronounced dry and wet seasons, affecting food security for two-thirds of the world’s population. Rising atmospheric CO 2 influences the terrestrial hydrological cycle through climate-radiative and vegetation-physiological forcings. How these two forcings affect the seasonal intensity and characteristics of monsoonal precipitation and runoff is poorly understood. Here we use four Earth System Models to show that in a CO 2 -enriched climate, radiative forcing changes drive annual precipitation increases for most monsoon regions. Further, vegetation feedbacks substantially affect annual precipitation in North and South America and Australia monsoon regions. In the dry season, runoff increases over most monsoon regions, due to stomatal closure-driven evapotranspiration reductions and associated atmospheric circulation change. Our results imply that flood risks may amplify in the wet season. However, the lengthening of the monsoon rainfall season and reduced evapotranspiration will shorten the water resources scarcity period for most monsoon regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Lattice Boltzmann Method for Predicting Porous Transport Layer Performance During Electrolysis

Electrolysis, the splitting of water into oxygen and hydrogen using electricity, is a sustainable way to produce green hydrogen for energy storage. In polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) water electrolysis, water is brought into contact with charged catalyst layers and electrochemically separated into oxygen and hydrogen. The hydrogen product formed at the cathode is carried through the catalyst layer for eventual collection, while the oxygen by-product formed at the anode is removed from the surface via a multiphase interaction with circulating water and a solid porous transport layer (PTL). The design of this PTL aids in the detachment and advection of the oxygen by-product and thereby plays a role in the overall efficacy of the catalyst. In this presentation, we present our initial results modeling this multiphase system using a single-component, multiphase lattice Boltzmann method. We use the Shan-Chen model describing inter-particle forces to capture both the cohesion of the water (liquid) and oxygen (gas) phases and their interaction with the PTL (solid) (Shan and Chen, 1993). We use a Carnahan-Starling equation of state to model the effective density governing these inter-particle interactions which allows us to model this relatively high density ratio system (Carnahan and Starling, 1969). With these simulations, we show that the geometry and heterogeneity of the PTL geometry plays a large role in its ability to move oxygen away from the catalyst layer and the resulting bubble structures that are formed within the PTL. The current work demonstrates these effects using synthesized PTL geometries and 2D physics, which will be extended to experimentally-imaged PTL sections and 3D algorithms in the near future.

Boltzmann↗

DOE OSTI2023

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation–Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this study, we investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by (a) a control experiment with the present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, (b) P4K, the same as in (a) but with a uniform increase of 4K in the SST globally, and (c) the same as in (a), but with an imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from the outputs of the coupled E3SM forced by a 4xCO 2 concentration. We found that as the surface warmed under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increased. Importantly, there was an increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of the precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than the ocean, and more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation was facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in the vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating, and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation–cloud–circulation organization from the control and P4K to 4xCO 2 . The results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, that is, P4K, was the primary cause contributing to an organization structure resembling the well-known mesoscale convective system (MCS), with increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplified the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increases in the surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 was the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, a fast and large increase in the land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture resulted in a strong reduction in the land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, and more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, that is, the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when it eventually occurs, due to the release of a large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Facilitating better and faster simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions in Earth system models

Focal Area(s): 1. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. 2. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: One major challenge that Earth system models (ESMs) face in providing credible prediction of the Earth system and its water cycle characteristics (e.g., mean state, variability, and extreme events) is to accurately simulate aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The physical, chemical, and dynamical processes affecting ACI are extremely complex and they range from nanoscale to planetary scale. In each model development cycle, scientists spend significant efforts investigating model deficiencies and uncertainties associated with aerosols (e.g., emissions, chemical processes, aerosol microphysics, and transport) and clouds (e.g., macrophysics, microphysics, turbulence, and large-scale circulation) in order to develop improved treatments. However, despite decades of active research, ACI is still a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, even though great progress has been made. Specific scientific challenges include: (i) Parameterizations are developed based on limited data; (ii) The complexity of a parameterization required for accurate predictions is not understood; (iii) Incomplete and unknown physics leads to errors in the fully coupled Earth system; and (iv) Complex physics is computationally too expensive to employ in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A status review on the thermal stratification modeling methods for Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors

The thermal stratification phenomenon plays a crucial role in the safety of various nuclear systems, including the Gen-III + Light Water Reactors (LWR) and the Gen-IV reactors. The phenomenon is of particular importance for the pool-type Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs) because it may cause neutronic and thermal-hydraulic in- stabilities in the reactor core, or lead to damages of both the reactor vessel and in-vessel components due to the growth of thermal fatigue cracking. More significantly, thermal stratification could impede the establishment of the natural circulation during accidental scenarios and introduce uncertainties to the core safety of SFRs. Efforts for modeling of the thermal stratification in SFRs have been made for decades to prevent or mitigate the damage caused by the phenomenon. This paper gives a review of the advances that have been made in recent 10 years on the computational modeling methods for thermal stratification phenomenon in SFRs. These methods can be generally drawn into two categories. The first one is the system-level methods which provide fast-running but approximate calculations, and the second one is the CFD methods which provide high-resolution calculations at high computational expense. Finally, after introducing the efforts that have been made to improve the one- dimensional (1-D) models, the paper envisioned the possible research directions that could be pursued to enhance the modeling of thermal stratification in the near future.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗