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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Operando detection of Li plating during fast charging of Li-ion batteries using incremental capacity analysis

A major challenge that limits fast charging of Li-ion batteries is lithium (Li) plating on the graphite electrode. Furthermore, it remains challenging to detect and diagnose Li plating in operando during charging. In this work, incremental capacity (IC) analysis is applied while charging graphite-NMC pouch cells over a range of rates from C/2 to 4C. Three-electrode pouch cell measurements and post-mortem SEM imaging was performed to demonstrate that the onset of Li plating is correlated with a specific IC peak. IC analysis was also applied to study the fast-charge performance of multi-layer pouch cells with 3-D anode architectures. The results demonstrate that: 1) IC curves have a characteristic peak that is an indicator of Li plating during fast charging, which grows in magnitude as charging rate increases; 2) the plating IC peak correlates with the voltage minimum of the graphite anode, indicating a transition from intercalation to plating; 3) the plating IC peak is sensitive to small amounts of Li plating; 4) IC analysis can be applied to study Li plating in novel cell architectures; 5) the plating IC peak evolves during extended fast-charge cycling, which is a result of reduced Li plating as the Li inventory decreases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Flotation Simulator That Can Predict Grade vs. Recovery Curves from Mineral Liberation Data

Flotation is a kinetic process designed to separate mineral fines by control of hydrophobicity. In general, both the recovery and selectivity of a flotation process increase with contact angle. It is difficult, however, to model flotation kinetics using the thermodynamic parameter. In the present work, we consider flotation as heterocoagulation so that the bubble-particle interactions occurring in the pulp phase of a flotation cell can be modeled using the hydrophobic force as a kinetic parameter that can represent the role of contact angles in flotation. Here, the pulp-phase model developed in this manner has been combined with a froth-phase model developed earlier by considering the effect of particles in film thinning kinetics and bubble coarsening (Park et al, 2018). The combined model has been used to develop a flotation simulator that can be used to construct grade vs. recovery curves from feed characteristics (e.g., mineral liberation and particle size) and various operating parameters. The simulator has been tested successfully against a set of bench-scale continuous flotation test results reported in the literature (dos Santos and Galery, 2018).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of proton-induced damage in thick, p-channel skipper-CCDs

Here, in this work, we characterize the radiation-induced damage in two thick, p-channel skipper-CCDs irradiated unbiased and at room temperature with 217-MeV protons. We evaluate the overall performance of the sensors and demonstrate their single-electron/single-photon sensitivity after receiving a fluence on the order of 10 10 protons/cm 2 . Using the pocket-pumping technique, we quantify and characterize the proton-induced defects from displacement damage. We report an overall trap density of 0.134 traps/pixel for a displacement damage dose of 2.3 × 10 7 MeV/g. Three main proton-induced trap species were identified, V 2 , C i O i and V n O m , and their characteristic trap energies and cross sections were extracted. We found that while divacancies are the most common proton-induced defects, C i O i defects have a greater impact on charge integrity at typical operating temperatures because their emission-time constants are comparable or larger than typical readout times. To estimate ionization damage, we measure the characteristic output transistor curves. We found no threshold voltage shifts after irradiation. Our results highlight the potential of skipper-CCDs for applications requiring high-radiation tolerance and can be used to find the operating conditions in which effects of radiation-induced damage are mitigated.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Generative Modeling of Periodic Variable Stars Using Physical Parameters

The ability to generate physically plausible ensembles of variable sources is critical to the optimization of time domain survey cadences and the training of classification models on data sets with few to no labels. Traditional data augmentation techniques expand training sets by reenvisioning observed exemplars, seeking to simulate observations of specific training sources under different (exogenous) conditions. Unlike fully theory-driven models, these approaches do not typically allow principled interpolation nor extrapolation. Moreover, the principal drawback of theory-driven models lies in the prohibitive computational cost of simulating source observables from ab initio parameters. In this work, we propose a computationally tractable machine learning approach to generate realistic light curves of periodic variables capable of integrating physical parameters and variability classes as inputs. Our deep generative model, inspired by the transparent latent space generative adversarial networks, uses a variational autoencoder (VAE) architecture with temporal convolutional network layers, trained using the OGLE-III optical light curves and physical characteristics (e.g., effective temperature and absolute magnitude) from Gaia DR2. A test using the temperature–shape relationship of RR Lyrae demonstrates the efficacy of our generative “physics-enhanced latent space VAE” (PELS-VAE) model. Such deep generative models, serving as nonlinear nonparametric emulators, present a novel tool for astronomers to create synthetic time series over arbitrary cadences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Processing Package for Cyclic Integrated Reversible Bending Fatigue Testing

A data processing software package has been introduced. The package was developed using MATLAB with the aid of the Curve Fitting Toolbox. The package is made up of four modules: pre-processing, data processing for static testing, data processing for monitoring, and data processing for measurements. CIRFT data are structured with multiple levels of architecture involving group, specimen, session, and scan/block. The degree of complexity of the data structure depends on whether a test is static or cyclic.The test results are presented in figures, scatter plots, and tables. For static testing, the output in tables provides bending mechanical properties and characteristic points of moment–curvature relation: flexural rigidities in linear segments of loading and unloading stages, intersection points between characteristic segments of the curve, and equivalent stress and strain quantities. For cyclic testing, the table output lists control and fatigue life and responsive/dependent quantities including moment, curvature, flexural rigidity, flexural hysteresis, rigidity phase angle, and equivalent stresses and strains. In addition, derivatives such as half-gage length and sensor spacing correction are included. The output also provides standard deviations of the reported quantities when they are applicable or available. The data processing package can serve as a fundamental characterization tool in mechanical study of materials. The package is intended primarily for data processing for the CIRFT process and can also be used in applications for which similar testing requirements exist.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrologic Regionalization under Data Scarcity: Implications for Streamflow Prediction

Continuous streamflow prediction is crucial in many applications of water resources planning and management. However, streamflow prediction is challenging, particularly in data-scarce regions. Here, we demonstrate an approach to regionalize the flow duration curve for predicting daily streamflow in the data-scare region of the central Himalayas. We developed a regression-based model to estimate streamflow at various segments of a flow duration curve by incorporating basin characteristics and climate variables. This study analyzes the sensitivities of proximity and characteristics between the donor (gauged) and receptor (ungauged) basins for time-series streamflow prediction. Our results show that regionalization techniques perform better in low to medium flows over high flows. Our findings are significant in the central Himalayan regional context to inform operational and management decisions in water sector projects like hydropower plants, which generally rely on low-to-medium streamflow information. Although the quantitative results are region-specific, the approach and insights are generalizable to the Himalayan region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A high throughput assay to detect enzymatic polyethylene oxidation

Biological plastics deconstruction and upcycling have emerged as sustainable alternatives to traditional recycling technologies for plastics waste. The discovery and engineering of efficient thermostable poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) hydrolases have made biological PET recycling possible at scale; however, enzymes for non-PET plastics, which account for approximately 70% of all plastics produced, remain largely undiscovered. To accelerate the discovery of such enzymes, we develop a high-throughput screen to detect initial polymer oxidation, specifically that of the C-H bond to an aldehyde. We test 4-hydrazino-7-nitro-2,1,3-benxoxadiozole hydrazine (NBD-H), which reacts with generated aldehydes to form a fluorescent hydrazone on plasma oxidized low-density polyethylene (LDPE) films. Hydrazone generation correlated well with the area of aldehyde peaks as measured by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) (R2 = 0.92). Moreover, we demonstrate that the probe reliably identifies LDPE-active dye decolorizing peroxidases (DyPs) that generate aldehydes on LDPE films (1.7 – 3.0 fold change relative to background), serving as an effective screen as demonstrated by receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.95. Furthermore, this assay offers an LDPE oxidation screening platform that can be readily parallelized and automated for accelerated discovery of enzymes involved in polyolefin deconstruction.

biocatalysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Determining circuit model parameters from operation data for PV system degradation analysis: $\mathrm{PVPRO}$

Physics-based circuit parameters like series and shunt resistance are essential to provide insights into the degradation status of photovoltaic (PV) arrays. However, calculating these parameters typically requires a full current-voltage characteristic (I-V curve), the acquisition of which involves specific measurement devices and costly methods. Thus, I-V curves of the PV system level are often not available. Here this paper proposes a methodology (PVPRO) to estimate these I-V curve parameters using only operation (string-level DC voltage and current) and weather data (irradiance and temperature). PVPRO first performs multi-stage data pre-processing to remove noisy data. Next, the time-series DC data are used to fit an equivalent circuit single-diode model (SDM) to estimate the circuit parameters by minimizing the differences between the measured and estimated values. In this way, the time evolutions of the SDM parameters are obtained. We evaluate PVPRO on synthetic datasets and find an excellent estimation of both SDM and the key I-V parameters (e.g., open-circuit voltage, short-circuit current, maximum power, etc.) with an average relative error of 0.55%. The performance, especially the extracted degradation rate of parameters, is robust to various measurement noises and the presence of faults. In addition, PVPRO is applied to a 271 kW PV field system. The relative error between the real and estimated operation voltage and current is less than 1%, suggesting that degradation trends are well captured. PVPRO represents a promising open-source tool to extract the time-series degradation trends of key PV parameters from routine operation data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-energy calibration of a PILATUS3 CdTe detector for hard x-ray measurements of magnetically confined fusion plasmas

A multi-energy hard x-ray pin-hole camera based on the PILATUS3 X 100K-M CdTe detector has been developed at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory for installation on the Tungsten Environment in Steady State Tokamak. This camera will be employed to study thermal plasma features such as electron temperature as well as non-thermal effects such as fast electron tails produced by a lower hybrid radiofrequency current drive and the birth of runaway electrons. The innovative aspect of the system lies in the possibility of setting the threshold energy independently for each of the ~100k pixels of the detector. This feature allows for the measurement of the x-ray emission in multiple energy ranges with adequate space and time resolution (~1 cm, 2 ms) and coarse energy resolution. In this work, the energy dependence of each pixel was calibrated within the range 15 keV–100 keV using a tungsten x-ray tube and emission from a variety of fluorescence targets (from yttrium to uranium). The data corresponding to pairs of K α emission lines are fit to the characteristic responsivity (“S-curve”), which describes the detector sensitivity across the 64 possible energy threshold values for each pixel; this novel capability is explored by fine-tuning the voltage of a six-bit digital-analog converter after the charge-sensitive amplifier for each of the ~100k pixels. Here, this work presents the results of the calibration including a statistical analysis. It was found that the achievable energy resolution is mainly limited by the width of the S-curve to 3 keV–10 keV for threshold energies up to 50 keV, and to ≥20 keV for energies above 60 keV.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of the development of islet autoantibodies through integration of environmental, genetic, and metabolic markers

The Environmental Determinants of the Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study has prospectively followed, from birth, children at increased genetic risk of type 1 diabetes. We evaluated the potential of machine learning to identify new biomarkers that predict imminent (within 6 months) development of persistent islet autoantibodies to insulin, GAD or IA-2 in TEDDY participants through integration of time-invariant risk factors with time-varying metabolomics. The predictive modeling was initiated with over 220 potential biomarkers; through ensemble-based feature evaluation, the optimal model included 42 biomarkers, returning a cross-validated receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.74. The model identified a principal set of 20 time-invariant markers, including 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms and two HLA-DR genotypes, gestational age, and exposure to a prebiotic formula. Integration of the metabolome identified 22 high-priority metabolites and lipids, including adipic acid and ceramide d42:0, that predicted development of islet autoantibodies, dependent upon the time horizon. The majority (86%) of metabolites that predicted development of islet autoantibodies belonged to 3 pathways: lipid oxidation, phospholipase A2 signaling, and pentose phosphate pathway. TEDDY data suggest that these metabolic processes may play a role in triggering islet autoimmunity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High y + Shear-Stress Turbulence Implementation for High Flux Isotope Reactor Narrow Channel Flows

The research objective of this work was to improve the engineering predictions of the turbulence characteristics of flows in curved narrow channels. Such channel flows are commonly encountered in nuclear research and test reactors, with one of them being the high-flux isotope reactor (HFIR). Research reactors bear high heat fluxes, and the proper computing of turbulence is paramount for safe and reliable reactor operation. The study builds on the results of a previous direct numerical simulation of turbulence to inform a well-known Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes shear-stress turbulence model and improves its accuracy in simulating parallel channel flows. A new formulation of the loss term in the dissipation conservation equation is suggested. Combined with high wall distance computational grids, the new implementation provides a fast-running flow solution, suitable for engineering purposes. Model generalization for parallel channel flows, in a broader range of frictional Reynolds numbers, is suggested by introducing a new form of the model constants.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2022

DeepZipper: A Novel Deep-learning Architecture for Lensed Supernovae Identification

Large-scale astronomical surveys have the potential to capture data on large numbers of strongly gravitationally lensed supernovae (LSNe). To facilitate timely analysis and spectroscopic follow-up before the supernova fades, an LSN needs to be identified soon after it begins. To quickly identify LSNe in optical survey data sets, we designed ZipperNet, a multibranch deep neural network that combines convolutional layers (traditionally used for images) with long short-term memory layers (traditionally used for time series). We tested ZipperNet on the task of classifying objects from four categories—no lens, galaxy-galaxy lens, lensed Type-Ia supernova, lensed core-collapse supernova—within high-fidelity simulations of three cosmic survey data sets: the Dark Energy Survey, Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), and a Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) imaging survey. Among our results, we find that for the LSST-like data set, ZipperNet classifies LSNe with a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.97, predicts the spectroscopic type of the lensed supernovae with 79% accuracy, and demonstrates similarly high performance for LSNe 1–2 epochs after first detection. We anticipate that a model like ZipperNet, which simultaneously incorporates spatial and temporal information, can play a significant role in the rapid identification of lensed transient systems in cosmic survey experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

On Finding Black Holes in Photometric Microlensing Surveys

There are expected to be millions of isolated black holes in the galaxy resulting from the deaths of massive stars. Measuring the abundance and properties of this remnant population would shed light on the end stages of stellar evolution and the evolution paths of black hole systems. Detecting isolated black holes is currently only possible via gravitational microlensing, which has so far yielded one definitive detection. The difficulty in finding microlensing black holes lies in having to choose a small subset of events, based on characteristics of their light curves, to allocate expensive and scarce follow-up resources to confirm the identity of the lens. Current methods either rely on simple cuts in parameter space without using the full distribution information or are only effective on small subsets of events. In this paper, we present a new lens classification method. The classifier takes in posterior constraints on light-curve parameters and combines them with a Galactic simulation to estimate the lens class probability. This method is flexible and can be used with any set of microlensing light-curve parameters, making it applicable to large samples of events. We make this classification framework available via the popclass Python package. We apply the classifier to ~10,000 microlensing events from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment survey and find 23 high-probability black hole candidates. Our classifier also suggests that the only known isolated black hole is an observational outlier, according to current Galactic models, and the allocation of astrometric follow-up on this event was a high-risk strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning curves for drug response prediction in cancer cell lines

Motivated by the size and availability of cell line drug sensitivity data, researchers have been developing machine learning (ML) models for predicting drug response to advance cancer treatment. As drug sensitivity studies continue generating drug response data, a common question is whether the generalization performance of existing prediction models can be further improved with more training data. We utilize empirical learning curves for evaluating and comparing the data scaling properties of two neural networks (NNs) and two gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) models trained on four cell line drug screening datasets. The learning curves are accurately fitted to a power law model, providing a framework for assessing the data scaling behavior of these models. The curves demonstrate that no single model dominates in terms of prediction performance across all datasets and training sizes, thus suggesting that the actual shape of these curves depends on the unique pair of an ML model and a dataset. The multi-input NN (mNN), in which gene expressions of cancer cells and molecular drug descriptors are input into separate subnetworks, outperforms a single-input NN (sNN), where the cell and drug features are concatenated for the input layer. In contrast, a GBDT with hyperparameter tuning exhibits superior performance as compared with both NNs at the lower range of training set sizes for two of the tested datasets, whereas the mNN consistently performs better at the higher range of training sizes. Moreover, the trajectory of the curves suggests that increasing the sample size is expected to further improve prediction scores of both NNs. These observations demonstrate the benefit of using learning curves to evaluate prediction models, providing a broader perspective on the overall data scaling characteristics. A fitted power law learning curve provides a forward-looking metric for analyzing prediction performance and can serve as a co-design tool to guide experimental biologists and computational scientists in the design of future experiments in prospective research studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A matched-filter approach to radio variability and transients: searching for orphan afterglows in the VAST Pilot Survey

Radio transient searches using traditional variability metrics struggle to recover sources whose evolution time-scale is significantly longer than the survey cadence. Motivated by the recent observations of slowly evolving radio afterglows at gigahertz frequency, we present the results of a search for radio variables and transients using an alternative matched-filter approach. We designed our matched-filter to recover sources with radio light curves that have a high-significance fit to power-law and smoothly broken power-law functions; light curves following these functions are characteristic of synchrotron transients, including ‘orphan’ gamma-ray burst afterglows, which were the primary targets of our search. Applying this matched-filter approach to data from Variables and Slow Transients Pilot Survey conducted using the Australian SKA Pathfinder, we produced five candidates in our search. Subsequent Australia Telescope Compact Array observations and analysis revealed that: one is likely a synchrotron transient; one is likely a flaring active galactic nucleus, exhibiting a flat-to-steep spectral transition over 4 months; one is associated with a starburst galaxy, with the radio emission originating from either star formation or an underlying slowly evolving transient; and the remaining two are likely extrinsic variables caused by interstellar scintillation. The synchrotron transient, VAST J175036.1–181454, has a multifrequency light curve, peak spectral luminosity, and volumetric rate that is consistent with both an off-axis afterglow and an off-axis tidal disruption event; interpreted as an off-axis afterglow would imply an average inverse beaming factor $\langle f^{-1}_{\text{b}} \rangle = 860^{+1980}_{-710}$, or equivalently, an average jet opening angle of $\langle \theta _{\textrm {j}} \rangle = 3^{+4}_{-1}\,$ deg.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detection and Perception of Sound by Eagles and Surrogate Raptors

One overarching objective of this program of study was the accumulation of objective, scientifically valid information relating to auditory performance of bald and golden eagles that may be used to guide the development of acoustic alerting/deterrence technologies intended to discourage encroachment into wind energy air spaces. To that end, analyses aimed at the characterization of sensitivity to sound in bald and golden eagles, along with findings in the supra-threshold, dynamic frequency spaces related to response latencies and amplitudes, leads us to conclude that bald, and golden eagles navigate the same basic working auditory space, as in other known and thus far characterized members of the diurnal raptor family. Specifically, bald and golden eagles, along with other raptor species within the group, operate in an auditory space characterized by a frequency band at least four octaves wide and centered on 2 kHz, with an upper frequency limit between 6 and 10 kHz at 80 dB SPL and a lower frequency limit that almost certainly extends below 0.2 kHz. Consequently, we recommend that signal designers use these data as a guideline in efforts to design effective and efficient acoustic alerting/deterrent systems. It is important to note that signal energy broadcast outside of this frequency band at moderate levels will not contribute to the efficacy of a deterrent but will add an unnecessary fraction to the overall acoustic pollution budget. The importance of this consideration is heightened by contemporaneous concerns related to the transmission of noise broadcast by wind energy farms. In addition, based on analyses of data acquired from red-tailed hawks using the same experimental paradigm and data acquisition system, we conclude that auditory function in the red-tailed hawk is sufficiently like that observed in bald and golden eagles to permit its use as a surrogate species. Response waveforms, threshold-frequency curves, and input-output characteristics match those of eagles closely. It should be noted however, that differences in sensitivity and slightly extended high-frequency limits of hearing should be taken into account when extrapolating findings from one species to the others. Although the inclusion of behavioral tests of red-tailed hawks to acoustic stimuli was beyond the scope of this investigation, future efforts to assess response parameters like signal-type preference and habituation rate will further elucidate their suitability to serve as eagle surrogates in behavioral studies; nonetheless, the species in question are well matched with respect to basic auditory performance. A second essential objective of this program of study was the acoustic characterization of a subset of calls comprising the vocal repertoires of bald and golden eagles that may be used to supplement auditory performance findings in the effort to guide the development of acoustic alerting signals. With regard to that objective, the vocal repertoires of both bald and golden eagle species are rich and varied. While similar in spectrographic structure, distinctive differences are also clear. Generally, golden eagles produce some calls with shorter durations, and similar “sounding” calls exhibit distinctively different spectrographic patterns than those of bald eagles. Both species produce calls that contain a wide variety of nonlinear elements that operate to enhance the rich and varied nature of commonly observed vocal products. Comparison of the average power spectra of commonly observed bald and golden eagle calls with threshold-frequency curves leads to the conclusion that call energies fall within the frequency bounds of hearing. Further, the acoustic energy of calls considered in this report tend to fall into overlapping, but different frequency ranges of the acoustic sensitivity curve. This condition may encourage signal designers to vary the frequency content of acoustic deterrence signals in the field. Finally, preliminary observations relating to the tendencies and proclivities of bald eagles to attend to the acoustic landscape lead to the conclusion that eagles monitor their immediate sound environment assiduously. Individuals respond to a variety of natural and synthetic sound signals reliably and, perhaps most relevant in the context of the engineering of acoustic alerting/deterrence technologies, habituation to most sounds considered in this effort was minimal. These preliminary results, while calling for extended behavioral testing, are promising and set the stage for the exportation of behavioral studies into real world scenarios.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated detection of mild cognitive impairment and dementia from voice recordings: A natural language processing approach

Automated computational assessment of neuropsychological tests would enable widespread, cost-effective screening for dementia. A novel natural language processing approach is developed and validated to identify different stages of dementia based on automated transcription of digital voice recordings of subjects’ neuropsychological tests conducted by the Framingham Heart Study (n = 1084). Transcribed sentences from the test were encoded into quantitative data and several models were trained and tested using these data and the participants’ demographic characteristics. Average area under the curve (AUC) on the held-out test data reached 92.6%, 88.0%, and 74.4% for differentiating Normal cognition from Dementia, Normal or Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) from Dementia, and Normal from MCI, respectively. The proposed approach offers a fully automated identification of MCI and dementia based on a recorded neuropsychological test, providing an opportunity to develop a remote screening tool that could be adapted easily to any language.

neuropsychological↗
DOE OSTI2023

Superiority of compensatory reserve measurement compared with the Shock index for early and accurate detection of reduced central blood volume status

Shock index (SI) equals the ratio of heart rate (HR) to systolic blood pressure (SBP) with clinical evidence that it is more sensitive for trauma patient status assessment and prediction of outcome compared with either HR or SBP alone. We used lower body negative pressure (LBNP) as a human model of central hypovolemia and compensatory reserve measurement (CRM) validated for accurate tracking of reduced central blood volume to test the hypotheses that SI: (1) presents a late signal of central blood volume status; (2) displays poor sensitivity and specificity for predicting the onset of hemodynamic decompensation; and (3) cannot identify individuals at greatest risk for the onset of circulatory shock. We measured HR, SBP, and CRM in 172 human subjects (19–55 years) during progressive LBNP designed to determine tolerance to central hypovolemia as a model of hemorrhage. Subjects were subsequently divided into those with high tolerance (HT) (n = 118) and low tolerance (LT) (n = 54) based on completion of 60 mm Hg LBNP. The time course relationship between SI and CRM was determined and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) was calculated for sensitivity and specificity of CRM and SI to predict hemodynamic decompensation using clinically defined thresholds of 40% for CRM and 0.9 for SI. The time and level of LBNP required to reach a SI = 0.9 (~60 mm Hg LBNP) was significantly greater (p < 0.001) compared with CRM that reached 40% at ~40 mm Hg LBNP. Shock index did not differ between HT and LT subjects at 45 mm Hg LBNP levels. ROC AUC for CRM was 0.95 (95% CI = 0.94–0.97) compared with 0.91 (0.89–0.94) for SI (p = 0.0002). Despite high sensitivity and specificity, SI delays time to detect reductions in central blood volume with failure to distinguish individuals with varying tolerances to central hypovolemia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗