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At least 91 records · Page 5

Exploring Causal Physical Mechanisms via Non-Gaussian Linear Models and Deep Kernel Learning: Applications for Ferroelectric Domain Structures

Rapid emergence of multimodal imaging in scanning probe, electron, and optical microscopies has brought forth the challenge of understanding the information contained in these complex data sets, targeting the intrinsic correlations between different channels, and further exploring the underpinning causal physical mechanisms. Here, we develop such an analysis framework for Piezoresponse Force Microscopy. We argue that under certain conditions, we can bootstrap experimental observations with the prior knowledge of materials structure to get information on certain nonobserved properties, and demonstrate linear causal analysis for PFM observables. We further demonstrate that the strength of individual causal links between complex descriptors can be ascertained using the deep kernel learning (DKL) model. In this DKL analysis, we use the prior information on domain structure within the image to predict the physical properties. This analysis demonstrates the correlative relationships between morphology, piezoresponse, elastic property, etc., at nanoscale. The prediction of morphology and other physical parameters illustrates a mutual interaction between surface condition and physical properties in ferroelectric materials. Overall, this analysis is universal and can be extended to explore the correlative relationships of other multichannel data sets, and allow for high-fidelity reconstruction of underpinning functionalities and physical mechanisms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature

As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR). Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research and elsewhere, demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. Furthermore, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability in global temperature that is consistent with the presence of nonlinearities internal to the system. Thus, although CR do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum Mechanics of a Spherically Symmetric Causal Diamond in Minkowski Spacetime

We construct the phase space of a spherically symmetric causal diamond in ( d + 2 )-dimensional Minkowski spacetime. Utilizing the covariant phase space formalism, we identify the relevant degrees of freedom that localize to the d -dimensional bifurcate horizon and, upon canonical quantization, determine their commutators. On this phase space, we find two Iyer-Wald charges. The first of these charges, proportional to the area of the causal diamond, is responsible for shifting the null time along the horizon and has been well documented in the literature. The second charge is much less understood, being integrable for d ≥ 2 only if we allow for field-dependent diffeomorphisms and is responsible for changing the size of the causal diamond. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Spatial-Temporal Synchrophasor Data Characterization and Analytics in Smart Grid Fault Detection, Identification, and Impact Causal Analysis

An approach of big data characterization for smart grids (SGs) and its applications in fault detection, identification, and causal impact analysis is proposed in this paper, which aims to provide substantial data volume reduction while keeping comprehensive information from synchrophasor measurements in spatial and temporal domains. Especially, based on secondary voltage control (SVC) and local SG observation algorithm, a two-layer dynamic optimal synchrophasor measurement devices selection algorithm (OSMDSA) is proposed to determine SVC zones, their corresponding pilot buses, and the optimal synchrophasor measurement devices. Combining the two-layer dynamic OSMDSA and matching pursuit decomposition, the synchrophasor data is completely characterized in the spatial-temporal domain. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed characterization approach, SG situational awareness is investigated based on hidden Markov model based fault detection and identification using the spatial-temporal characteristics generated from the reduced data. To identify the major impact buses, the weighted Granger causality for SGs is proposed to investigate the causal relationship of buses during system disturbance. The IEEE 39-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system are employed to validate and evaluate the proposed approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Developing Generic Prior Distributions for Common Cause Failure Alpha Factors and Causal Alpha Factors

This report is a revision of the original report, INL/LTD-17-43723. Distribution of the original report was to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) only, and the report was not made available to the public. The original report was revised as this report for public distribution. This report presents the latest update of generic prior distributions for common cause failure (CCF) alpha factors, as well as the development of new generic prior distributions for CCF causal alpha factors. The history of CCF treatment and parameter estimations is reviewed. The existing process for developing generic prior distributions is reviewed and used to develop new priors for CCF alpha factors and causal alpha factors. For causal alpha factors, different priors are developed for the five different CCF cause groups: Component (GC), Design (GD), Environment (GE), Human (GH), and Other (GO). These generic prior distributions could be used in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models for CCF parameter estimation. The issues and preliminary thoughts regarding prior distribution development are documented. Potential future work is then proposed for improving the process of developing priors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Exponential Strong Converse for Successive Refinement with Causal Decoder Side Information

We consider the k-user successive refinement problem with causal decoder side information and derive an exponential strong converse theorem. The rate-distortion region for the problem can be derived as a straightforward extension of the two-user case by Maor and Merhav (2008). We show that for any rate-distortion tuple outside the rate-distortion region of the k-user successive refinement problem with causal decoder side information, the joint excess-distortion probability approaches one exponentially fast. Our proof follows by judiciously adapting the recently proposed strong converse technique by Oohama using the information spectrum method, the variational form of the rate-distortion region and Hölder’s inequality. The lossy source coding problem with causal decoder side information considered by El Gamal and Weissman is a special case (k = 1) of the current problem. Therefore, the exponential strong converse theorem for the El Gamal and Weissman problem follows as a corollary of our result.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Causality constraints on corrections to Einstein gravity

We study constraints from causality and unitarity on 2 → 2 graviton scattering in four-dimensional weakly-coupled effective field theories. Together, causality and unitarity imply dispersion relations that connect low-energy observables to high-energy data. Using such dispersion relations, we derive two-sided bounds on gravitational Wilson coefficients in terms of the mass M of new higher-spin states. Our bounds imply that gravitational interactions must shut off uniformly in the limit G → 0, and prove the scaling with M expected from dimensional analysis (up to an infrared logarithm). We speculate that causality, together with the non-observation of gravitationally-coupled higher spin states at colliders, severely restricts modifications to Einstein gravity that could be probed by experiments in the near future.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Causal explicit algorithm for heat conduction in a plasma

Hyperbolic heat conduction extends standard Spitzer-Harm heat conduction by including a term proportional to the time derivative of the heat flux. The new term arises from a kinetic derivation of the heat flux that includes higher order corrections. Here we present a causal explicit numerical algorithm for solving the nonlinear hyperbolic heat conduction equation in an unmagnetized plasma. The maximum stable timestep for the causal explicit algorithm scales linearly with the cell size, owing to the hyperbolic nature of the problem. This is in contrast to the quadratic scaling of the maximum stable timestep with the cell size for the parabolic forward time centered space algorithm. The favorable scaling of the timestep with the cell size enables a practical explicit implementation of heat conduction in high-performance massively parallel plasma codes. In particular, we have implemented the causal explicit algorithm in the laser plasma interaction code pF3D. We verify the CE algorithm and analyze its convergence rate by simulating a harmonic mode, which has an analytic solution within the context of the HHC model. We also compare simulations using the CE algorithm to those using the forward time centered space algorithm on a pair of test problems: evolution in time of a Gaussian temperature perturbation in a uniform plasma and heat transport in the presence of inverse bremsstrahlung heating by a Gaussian laser speckle.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Detecting Climate Teleconnections With Granger Causality

Abstract Climate system teleconnections are crucial for improving climate predictability, but difficult to quantify. Standard approaches to identify teleconnections are often based on correlations between time series. Here we present a novel method leveraging Granger causality, which can infer/detect relationships between any two fields. We compare teleconnections identified by correlation and Granger causality at different timescales. We find that both Granger causality and correlation consistently recover known seasonal precipitation responses to the sea surface temperature pattern associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Such findings are robust across multiple time resolutions. In addition, we identify candidates for unexplored teleconnection responses.

Silva, Filipi N.↗

Subseasonal Great Plains Rainfall via Remote Extratropical Teleconnections: Regional Application of Theory‐Guided Causal Networks

Abstract Long‐range U.S. summer rainfall prediction skill is low. Monsoon variability, especially over the West North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) and/or East Asian Monsoon (EAM) region, can influence U.S. Great Plains hydroclimate variability via a forced Rossby wave response. Here, we explored subseasonal monsoon variability as a source of predictability for Great Plains rainfall. The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is related to Great Plains convection and Great Plains low‐level jet (LLJ) anomalies as well as a cross‐Pacific wave train. Using a causal effect network, we found that the time between BSISO‐related geopotential height anomalies and Great Plains rainfall anomalies is about 2 weeks; therefore, BSISO convection may be a valuable forecast of opportunity for subseasonal prediction of Great Plains convection anomalies. More specifically, causal link patterns/maps revealed that the above‐normal weekly EAM rainfall, rather than WNPM rainfall or general geopotential height activity over the East Asia, was causally linked to Great Plains LLJ strengthening and active Great Plains convection the following week.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Causal mechanism of injection-induced earthquakes through the M w 5.5 Pohang earthquake case study

Causal mechanisms for fluid injection-induced earthquakes remain a challenge to identify. Past studies largely established spatiotemporal correlations. Here, we propose a multi-process causal mechanism for injection-induced earthquakes through a case study of the 2017 M w 5.5 induced earthquake near Pohang Enhanced Geothermal System, Korea, where detailed hydraulic stimulation and on-site seismicity monitoring data provide an unprecedented opportunity. Pore pressure modeling reveals that pore pressure changes initiate seismicity on critically stressed faults and Coulomb static stress transfer modeling reveals that earthquake interactions promote continued seismicity, leading to larger events. On the basis of these results, we propose the following causal mechanism for induced seismicity: pore pressure increase and earthquake interactions lead to fault weakening and ultimately triggering larger earthquakes later in the process. We suggest that it is prudent that pore pressure change, initial seismicity locations, and Coulomb static stress transfer from seismicity earlier in the sequence are assessed in real-time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Causal interaction in high frequency turbulence at the biosphere–atmosphere interface: Structure–function coupling

At the biosphere–atmosphere interface, nonlinear interdependencies among components of an ecohydrological complex system can be inferred using multivariate high frequency time series observations. Information flow among these interacting variables allows us to represent the causal dependencies in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Here, we use high frequency multivariate data at 10 Hz from an eddy covariance instrument located at 25 m above agricultural land in the Midwestern US to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of this complex system using a sequence of DAGs by examining the structural dependency of information flow and the associated functional response. We investigate whether functional differences correspond to structural differences or if there are no functional variations despite the structural differences. We base our analysis on the hypothesis that causal dependencies are instigated through information flow, and the resulting interactions sustain the dynamics and its functionality. To test our hypothesis, we build upon causal structure analysis in the companion paper to characterize the information flow in similarly clustered DAGs from 3-min non-overlapping contiguous windows in the observational data. We characterize functionality as the nature of interactions as discerned through redundant, unique, and synergistic components of information flow. Through this analysis, we find that in turbulence at the biosphere–atmosphere interface, the variables that control the dynamic character of the atmosphere as well as the thermodynamics are driven by non-local conditions, while the scalar transport associated with CO and H 2 O is mainly driven by short-term local conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Causal extraction of black hole rotational energy by various kinds of electromagnetic fields

Recent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations have suggested that relativistic jets from active galactic nuclei (AGNs) have been powered by the rotational energy of central black holes. Some mechanisms for extraction of black hole rotational energy have been proposed, like the Penrose process, Blandford-Znajek mechanism, MHD Penrose process, and superradiance. The Blandford-Znajek mechanism is the most promising mechanism for the engines of the relativistic jets from AGNs. However, an intuitive interpretation of this mechanism with causality is not yet clarified, while the Penrose process has a clear interpretation for causal energy extraction from a black hole with negative energy. In this paper, we present a formula to build physical intuition so that in the Blandford-Znajek mechanism, as well as in other electromagnetic processes, negative electromagnetic energy plays an important role in causal extraction of the rotational energy of black holes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Causality violations in realistic simulations of heavy-ion collisions

Causality is violated in the early stages of state-of-the-art heavy-ion hydrodynamic simulations. Such violations are present in up to 75% of the fluid cells in the initial time and only after 2–3 fm/c of evolution do we find that 50% of the fluid cells are definitely causal. Superluminal propagation reaches up to 15% the speed of light in some of the fluid cells. The inclusion of pre-equilibrium evolution significantly reduces the number of acausal cells. Here our findings suggests that relativistic causality may place constraints on the available parameter space of heavy-ion collision simulations when factored into more thorough statistical analyses.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Embedding space approach to Lorentzian CFT amplitudes and causal spherical functions

Conformal field theory in a Minkowski setting is discussed in an embedding space approach, paying special attention to causality constraints for four-point amplitudes. The physics of dilatation and Lorentz boost is emphasized in specifying the noncompact maximal Abelian subgroup of S O ( d , 2 ) . Reduction of a conformal field theory four-point amplitudes as functions of cross ratios is shown to be equivalent to enforcing H bi-invariance, i.e., F ( h g h ′ ) = F ( g ) , with g ∈ S O ( d , 2 ) and H an appropriate subgroup. Causality is imposed by introducing appropriate semigroups. Causal zonal spherical functions are constructed, making contact with Minkowski conformal blocks introduced previously. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Agarwal, Pulkit (ORCID:0000000346581691)↗

Test of Causal Nonlinear Quantum Mechanics by Ramsey Interferometry with a Trapped Ion

Quantum mechanics requires the time evolution of the wave function to be linear. While this feature has been associated with the preservation of causality, a consistent causal nonlinear theory was recently developed. Interestingly, this theory is unavoidably sensitive to the full physical spread of the wave function, rendering existing experimental tests for nonlinearities inapplicable. Here, in this work, using well-controlled motional superpositions of a trapped ion, we set a stringent limit of 5.4×10 –12 on the magnitude of the unitless scaling factor $\tilde{ε}_γ$ for the predicted causal nonlinear perturbation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Emergence of quantum-field theory in causal diamonds

The experimental successes of quantum-field theory do not justify using it to describe even a finite fraction of the entanglement entropy of a causal diamond with its exterior, in the limit of large diamonds. Susskind and Uglum and Jacobson conjectured that this divergent entropy could be thought of as a renormalization of Newton’s constant in the Bekenstein–Hawking formula, if we applied that formula to arbitrary causal diamonds. Jacobson showed that this leads to a derivation of the null projection of Einstein’s equations as the hydrodynamic equations of the area law for arbitrary diamonds, a derivation which has the added virtue of demonstrating that the cosmological constant is not an energy density. Using a gauge choice adapted to causal diamond boundaries, we revisit arguments of Carlip and Solodukhin that the proper theory of near horizon states is a (cut-off) (1 + 1)-dimensional conformal field theory, with central charge proportional to the transverse area. This leads to a universal formula for fluctuations of the modular Hamiltonian of a diamond, which we argue is compatible with the explanation of the temperature of de Sitter space in terms of an identification between localized energy and the number of constrained q-bits of the holographic degrees of freedom.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

ES&H Center Causal Analysis Assessment

In July 2017, the Organization 630 senior manager requested that an assessment of selected causal analyses be performed for the period from July 2014 to July 2017. As a result, this assessment reviewed causal analyses performed by or for Environment, Safety and Health (ES&H) Center department personnel during the specified period. The purpose was to determine the degree to which ES&H Center personnel learn from use of the causal analysis process.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗