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At least 91 records · Page 5

Log-Based Recovery in Asynchronous Distributed Systems

A log-based mechanism is described for restoring consistent states to replicated data objects after failures. Preserving a causal form of consistency based on the notion of virtual time is focused upon in this report. Causal consistency has been shown to apply to a variety of applications, including distributed simulation, task decomposition, and mail delivery systems. Several mechanisms have been proposed for implementing causally consistent recovery, most notably those of Strom and Yemini, and Johnson and Zwaenepoel. The mechanism proposed here differs from these in two major respects. First, a roll-forward style of recovery is implemented. A functioning process is never required to roll-back its state in order to achieve consistency with a recovering process. Second, the mechanism does not require any explicit information about the causal dependencies between updates. Instead, all necessary dependency information is inferred from the orders in which updates are logged by the object servers. This basic recovery technique appears to be applicable to forms of consistency other than causal consistency. In particular, it is shown how the recovery technique can be modified to support an atomic form of consistency (grouping consistency). By combining grouping consistency with casual consistency, it may even be possible to implement serializable consistency within this mechanism.

Kane, Kenneth Paul↗

Overview of the Nephele Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in E3SMv3

Aerosol-cloud interactions (aci) are the leading source of uncertainty in inferring climate sensitivity from the historical record. Earth system models (ESMs) struggle to represent aci because the processes responsible for these phenomena occur at much finer time and space scales than can be resolved by any ESM. Observational constraints provide key benchmarks to test ESMs, but cannot be used alone to fully understand aci processes except in very specific cases where causality is controlled; some degree of modeling is required to infer aci and estimate radiative forcing. Here, we generate and characterize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) in version 3 of the Energy Exascale ESM (E3SMv3). We perturb 25 parameters that govern aci processes over 250 members and integrate the model over present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. We find that the process representation in E3SMv3 is flexible and can generate global-mean effective radiative forcings due to aci (ERFaci) ranging from −3.0 to +0.9 W m −2 . The positive ERFaci values simulated by a portion of the PPE are implausible and result from parameter combinations that produce unrealistic top-of-atmosphere energy fluxes. While global-mean cloud droplet number concentration always increases in response to anthropogenic aerosol, cloud liquid water path can both increase and decrease, suggesting that precipitation suppression is not the only aerosol-cloud adjustment represented by E3SMv3. Analysis of which processes control liquid cloud adjustment in the PPE points toward stratiform precipitation processes and aerosol activation, which is consistent with many previous ESMs, as well as the new two-moment convective cloud microphysics in E3SMv3.

Nugent, Jacqueline M. [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, ↗

Causal interaction in high frequency turbulence at the biosphere–atmosphere interface: Structure–function coupling

At the biosphere–atmosphere interface, nonlinear interdependencies among components of an ecohydrological complex system can be inferred using multivariate high frequency time series observations. Information flow among these interacting variables allows us to represent the causal dependencies in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Here, we use high frequency multivariate data at 10 Hz from an eddy covariance instrument located at 25 m above agricultural land in the Midwestern US to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of this complex system using a sequence of DAGs by examining the structural dependency of information flow and the associated functional response. We investigate whether functional differences correspond to structural differences or if there are no functional variations despite the structural differences. We base our analysis on the hypothesis that causal dependencies are instigated through information flow, and the resulting interactions sustain the dynamics and its functionality. To test our hypothesis, we build upon causal structure analysis in the companion paper to characterize the information flow in similarly clustered DAGs from 3-min non-overlapping contiguous windows in the observational data. We characterize functionality as the nature of interactions as discerned through redundant, unique, and synergistic components of information flow. Through this analysis, we find that in turbulence at the biosphere–atmosphere interface, the variables that control the dynamic character of the atmosphere as well as the thermodynamics are driven by non-local conditions, while the scalar transport associated with CO and H 2 O is mainly driven by short-term local conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Untangling causality in midlatitude aerosol–cloud adjustments

Aerosol–cloud interactions represent the leading uncertainty in our ability to infer climate sensitivity from the observational record. The forcing from changes in cloud albedo driven by increases in cloud droplet number (Nd) (the first indirect effect) is confidently negative and has narrowed its probable range in the last decade, but the sign and strength of forcing associated with changes in cloud macrophysics in response to aerosol (aerosol–cloud adjustments) remain uncertain. This uncertainty reflects our inability to accurately quantify variability not associated with a causal link flowing from the cloud microphysical state to the cloud macrophysical state. Once variability associated with meteorology has been removed, covariance between the liquid water path (LWP) averaged across cloudy and clear regions (here characterizing the macrophysical state) and Nd (characterizing the microphysical) is the sum of two causal pathways linking Nd to LWP: Nd altering LWP (adjustments) and precipitation scavenging aerosol and thus depleting Nd. Only the former term is relevant to constraining adjustments, but disentangling these terms in observations is challenging. We hypothesize that the diversity of constraints on aerosol–cloud adjustments in the literature may be partly due to not explicitly characterizing covariance flowing from cloud to aerosol and aerosol to cloud. Here, we restrict our analysis to the regime of extratropical clouds outside of low-pressure centers associated with cyclonic activity. Observations from MAC-LWP (Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path) and MODIS are compared to simulations in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) GA7.1 (the atmosphere model of HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1). The meteorological predictors of LWP are found to be similar between the model and observations. There is also agreement with previous literature on cloud-controlling factors finding that increasing stability, moisture, and sensible heat flux enhance LWP, while increasing subsidence and sea surface temperature decrease it. A simulation where cloud microphysics are insensitive to changes in Nd is used to characterize covariance between Nd and LWP that is induced by factors other than aerosol–cloud adjustments. By removing variability associated with meteorology and scavenging, we infer the sensitivity of LWP to changes in Nd. Application of this technique to UM GA7.1 simulations reproduces the true model adjustment strength. Observational constraints developed using simulated covariability not induced by adjustments and observed covariability between Nd and LWP predict a 25 %–30 % overestimate by the UM GA7.1 in LWP change and a 30 %–35 % overestimate in associated radiative forcing.

Daniel T. McCoy↗

EBIC investigation of hydrogenation of crystal defects in EFG solar silicon ribbons

Changes in the contrast and resolution of defect structures in 205 Ohm-cm EFG polysilicon ribbon subjected to annealing and hydrogenation treatments were observed in a JEOL 733 Superprobe scanning electron microscope, using electron beam induced current (EBIC) collected at an A1 Schottky barrier. The Schottky barrier was formed by evaporation of A1 onto the cleaned and polished surface of the ribbon material. Measurement of beam energy, beam current, and the current induced in the Schottky diode enabled observations to be quantified. Exposure to hydrogen plasma increased charge collection efficiency. However, no simple causal relationship between the hydrogenation and charge collection efficiency could be inferred, because the collection efficiency also displayed an unexpected thermal dependence. Good quality intermediate-magnification (1000X-5400X) EBIC micrographs of several specific defect structures were obtained. Comparison of grown-in and stress-induced dislocations after annealing in vacuum at 500 C revealed that stress-induced dislocations are hydrogenated to a much greater degree than grown-in dislocations. The theoretical approximations used to predict EBIC contrast and resolution may not be entirely adequate to describe them under high beam energy and low beam current conditions.

Sullivan, T.↗

Multisource Data Fusion Outage Location in Distribution Systems via Probabilistic Graphical Models

Efficient outage location is critical to enhancing the resilience of power distribution systems. However, accurate outage location requires combining massive evidence received from diverse data sources, including smart meter (SM) last gasp signals, customer trouble calls, social media messages, weather data, vegetation information, and physical parameters of the network. This is a computationally complex task due to the high dimensionality of data in distribution grids. In this paper, we propose a multi-source data fusion approach to locate outage events in partially observable distribution systems using Bayesian networks (BNs). A novel aspect of the proposed approach is that it takes multi-source evidence and the complex structure of distribution systems into account using a probabilistic graphical method. Our method can radically reduce the computational complexity of outage location inference in high-dimensional spaces. The graphical structure of the proposed BN is established based on the network’s topology and the causal relationship between random variables, such as the states of branches/customers and evidence. Utilizing this graphical model, accurate outage locations are obtained by leveraging a Gibbs sampling (GS) method, to infer the probabilities of de-energization for all branches. Compared with commonly-used exact inference methods that have exponential complexity in the size of the BN, GS quantifies the target conditional probability distributions in a timely manner. As a result, a case study of several real-world distribution systems is presented to validate the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Inference of precipitation through thermal infrared measurements of soil moisture

The physics of microwave radiative transfer is well understood so that causal models can be assembled which relate the observed brightness temperatures to assumed distributions of hydrometeors (both liquid and ice), non-precipitating clouds, water vapor oxygen, and surface conditions. Present models assume a Marshall Palmer size distribution of liquid hydrometers from the surface to the freezing level (near the 0 C isotherm) and a variable thickness of frozen hydrometeors above that with various reasonable distribution of the other relevant constituents. The validity of such models is discussed. All uncertainties in the rain rate retrieval algorithms can be expressed in terms of specific model uncertainties which can be addressed through appropriate measurements. Those factors which must be known to achieve umambiguous results can be identified so that rainfall measuring algorithms can be developed and improved. The emissivity of the underlying surface significantly affects the contrast that may be measured between areas covered by rain and those which are dry. Sensing strategies for measuring rain over the ocean and rain over land are reviewed.

Wetzel, P. J.↗

Systems Modeling to Implement Integrated System Health Management Capability

ISHM capability includes: detection of anomalies, diagnosis of causes of anomalies, prediction of future anomalies, and user interfaces that enable integrated awareness (past, present, and future) by users. This is achieved by focused management of data, information and knowledge (DIaK) that will likely be distributed across networks. Management of DIaK implies storage, sharing (timely availability), maintaining, evolving, and processing. Processing of DIaK encapsulates strategies, methodologies, algorithms, etc. focused on achieving high ISHM Functional Capability Level (FCL). High FCL means a high degree of success in detecting anomalies, diagnosing causes, predicting future anomalies, and enabling health integrated awareness by the user. A model that enables ISHM capability, and hence, DIaK management, is denominated the ISHM Model of the System (IMS). We describe aspects of the IMS that focus on processing of DIaK. Strategies, methodologies, and algorithms require proper context. We describe an approach to define and use contexts, implementation in an object-oriented software environment (G2), and validation using actual test data from a methane thruster test program at NASA SSC. Context is linked to existence of relationships among elements of a system. For example, the context to use a strategy to detect leak is to identify closed subsystems (e.g. bounded by closed valves and by tanks) that include pressure sensors, and check if the pressure is changing. We call these subsystems Pressurizable Subsystems. If pressure changes are detected, then all members of the closed subsystem become suspect of leakage. In this case, the context is defined by identifying a subsystem that is suitable for applying a strategy. Contexts are defined in many ways. Often, a context is defined by relationships of function (e.g. liquid flow, maintaining pressure, etc.), form (e.g. part of the same component, connected to other components, etc.), or space (e.g. physically close, touching the same common element, etc.). The context might be defined dynamically (if conditions for the context appear and disappear dynamically) or statically. Although this approach is akin to case-based reasoning, we are implementing it using a software environment that embodies tools to define and manage relationships (of any nature) among objects in a very intuitive manner. Context for higher level inferences (that use detected anomalies or events), primarily for diagnosis and prognosis, are related to causal relationships. This is useful to develop root-cause analysis trees showing an event linked to its possible causes and effects. The innovation pertaining to RCA trees encompasses use of previously defined subsystems as well as individual elements in the tree. This approach allows more powerful implementations of RCA capability in object-oriented environments. For example, if a pressurizable subsystem is leaking, its root-cause representation within an RCA tree will show that the cause is that all elements of that subsystem are suspect of leak. Such a tree would apply to all instances of leak-events detected and all elements in all pressurizable subsystems in the system. Example subsystems in our environment to build IMS include: Pressurizable Subsystem, Fluid-Fill Subsystem, Flow-Thru-Valve Subsystem, and Fluid Supply Subsystem. The software environment for IMS is designed to potentially allow definition of any relationship suitable to create a context to achieve ISHM capability.

Figueroa, Jorge F.↗

System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network

Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Genetic program activity delineates risk, relapse, and therapy responsiveness in multiple myeloma

Despite recent advancements in the treatment of multiple myeloma (MM), nearly all patients ultimately relapse and many become refractory to multiple lines of therapies. Therefore, we not only need the ability to predict which patients are at high risk for disease progression but also a means to understand the mechanisms underlying their risk. Here, we report a transcriptional regulatory network (TRN) for MM inferred from cross-sectional multi-omics data from 881 patients that predicts how 124 chromosomal abnormalities and somatic mutations causally perturb 392 transcription regulators of 8549 genes to manifest in distinct clinical phenotypes and outcomes. We identified 141 genetic programs whose activity profiles stratify patients into 25 distinct transcriptional states and proved to be more predictive of outcomes than did mutations. The coherence of these programs and accuracy of our network-based risk prediction was validated in two independent datasets. We observed subtype-specific vulnerabilities to interventions with existing drugs and revealed plausible mechanisms for relapse, including the establishment of an immunosuppressive microenvironment. Investigation of the t(4;14) clinical subtype using the TRN revealed that 16% of these patients exhibit an extreme-risk combination of genetic programs (median progression-free survival of 5 months) that create a distinct phenotype with targetable genes and pathways.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of bars on evolution of SDSS spiral galaxies

ABSTRACT We explore the significance of bars in triggering central star formation (SF) and active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity for spiral galaxy evolution using a volume-limited sample with 0.020 < z < 0.055, Mr < −19.5, and σ > 70 km s−1 selected from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7. On a central SF rate–σ plane, we measure the fraction of galaxies with strong bars in our sample and also the AGN fractions for barred and non-barred galaxies, respectively. The comparison between the bar and AGN fractions reveals a causal connection between the two phenomena of SF quenching and AGN activity. A massive black hole and abundant gas fuels are sufficient conditions to trigger AGNs. We infer that the AGNs triggered by satisfying the two conditions drive the strong AGN feedback, suddenly suppressing the central SF and leaving the SF sequence. We find that in galaxies where either of the two conditions is not sufficient, bars are a great help for the AGN triggering, accelerating the entire process of evolution, which is particularly evident in pseudo-bulge galaxies. All of our findings are obtained only when plotted in terms of their central velocity dispersion and central SFR (not galactic scale SFR), indicating that the AGN-driven SF quenching is confined in the central kpc region.

Kim, Minbae↗

Astrophysical Equation-of-State Constraints on the Color-Superconducting Gap

We demonstrate that astrophysical constraints on the dense-matter equation of state place an upper bound on the color-superconducting gap in dense matter above the transition from nuclear matter to quark matter. Pairing effects in the color-flavor locked quark matter phase increase the pressure at high density, and if this effect is sufficiently large then the requirements of causality and mechanical stability make it impossible to reach such a pressure in a way that is consistent with what is known at lower densities. The intermediate-density equation of state is inferred by considering extensions of chiral effective field theory to neutron star densities, and conditioning these using current astrophysical observations of neutron star radius, maximum mass, and tidal deformability (PSR J⁢0348+0432, PSR J1624-2230, PSR J⁢0740+6620, GW170817). At baryon number chemical potential μ = 2.6 GeV we find a 95% upper limit on the color-flavor locked pairing gap Δ of 457 MeV using overly conservative assumptions and 216 MeV with more reasonable assumptions. Furthermore, this constraint may be strengthened by future astrophysical measurements as well as by future advances in high-density QCD calculations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Accident/Mishap Investigation System

InvestigationOrganizer (IO) is a Web-based collaborative information system that integrates the generic functionality of a database, a document repository, a semantic hypermedia browser, and a rule-based inference system with specialized modeling and visualization functionality to support accident/mishap investigation teams. This accessible, online structure is designed to support investigators by allowing them to make explicit, shared, and meaningful links among evidence, causal models, findings, and recommendations.

Keller, Richard↗

Temperature Dependence of Factors Controlling Isoprene Emissions

We investigated the relationship of variability in the formaldehyde (HCHO) columns measured by the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) to isoprene emissions in the southeastern United States for 2005-2007. The data show that the inferred, regional-average isoprene emissions varied by about 22% during summer and are well correlated with temperature, which is known to influence emissions. Part of the correlation with temperature is likely associated with other causal factors that are temperature-dependent. We show that the variations in HCHO are convolved with the temperature dependence of surface ozone, which influences isoprene emissions, and the dependence of the HCHO column to mixed layer height as OMI's sensitivity to HCHO increases with altitude. Furthermore, we show that while there is an association of drought with the variation in HCHO, drought in the southeastern U.S. is convolved with temperature.

Duncan, Bryan N.↗

PlanWorks: A Debugging Environment for Constraint Based Planning Systems

Numerous planning and scheduling systems employ underlying constraint reasoning systems. Debugging such systems involves the search for errors in model rules, constraint reasoning algorithms, search heuristics, and the problem instance (initial state and goals). In order to effectively find such problems, users must see why each state or action is in a plan by tracking causal chains back to part of the initial problem instance. They must be able to visualize complex relationships among many different entities and distinguish between those entities easily. For example, a variable can be in the scope of several constraints, as well as part of a state or activity in a plan; the activity can arise as a consequence of another activity and a model rule. Finally, they must be able to track each logical inference made during planning. We have developed PlanWorks, a comprehensive system for debugging constraint-based planning and scheduling systems. PlanWorks assumes a strong transaction model of the entire planning process, including adding and removing parts of the constraint network, variable assignment, and constraint propagation. A planner logs all transactions to a relational database that is tailored to support queries for of specialized views to display different forms of data (e.g. constraints, activities, resources, and causal links). PlanWorks was specifically developed for the Extensible Universal Remote Operations Planning Architecture (EUROPA(sub 2)) developed at NASA, but the underlying principles behind PlanWorks make it useful for many constraint-based planning systems. The paper is organized as follows. We first describe some fundamentals of EUROPA(sub 2). We then describe PlanWorks' principal components. We then discuss each component in detail, and then describe inter-component navigation features. We close with a discussion of how PlanWorks is used to find model flaws.

Daley, Patrick↗

Aircraft noise annoyance at three joint air carrier and general aviation airports

The results of social surveys conducted near three airports that support both general aviation and scheduled air carrier operations are presented and discussed. Inferences supported by these data include: (1) the nature of noise exposure and community reaction at smaller airports may differ from that at larger airports; (2) survey techniques are capable of identifying changes in annoyance associated with numerically small changes in noise exposure; (3) changes in the prevalence of annoyance are causally produced by changes in noise exposure; and (4) changes in annoyance associated with changes in exposure vary with time.

Fidell, S.↗

Investigating signatures of phase transitions in neutron-star cores

Neutron stars explore matter at the highest densities in the universe such that their inner cores might undergo a phase transition from hadronic to exotic phases, e.g., quark matter. Such a transition could be associated with nontrivial structures in the density behavior of the speed of sound, such as jumps and sharp peaks. Here, in this work, we employ a physics-agnostic approach to model the density dependence of the speed of sound in neutron stars and study to what extent the existence of nontrivial structures can be inferred from existing astrophysical observations of neutron stars. For this, we exhaustively study different equations of state, including as well those with explicit first-order phase transitions. We obtain a large number of different equation of states which reproduce the same astrophysical observations and obey the same physical constraints, such as mechanical stability and causality. Among them, some have nontrivial structures in the sound speed whereas others do not. We conclude that astrophysical information to date do not require the existence of a phase transition to quark matter in the density range explored in the core of neutron stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Using discrete Bayesian networks for diagnosing and isolating cross-level faults in HVAC systems

Fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) technologies are critical to ensure satisfactory building performance, such as reducing energy wastes and negative impacts on occupant comfort and productivity. Existing FDD technologies mainly focus on component-level FDD solutions, which could lead to mis-diagnosis of cross-level faults in heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. Cross-level faults are those faults that occur in one component or subsystem, but cause operational abnormalities in other components or subsystems, and result in a building level performance degradation. How to effectively diagnose the root cause of a cross-level fault is the focus of this study. Here, this paper presents a novel discrete Bayesian Network (DisBN)-based method for diagnosing cross-level faults in an HVAC system commonly used in commercial buildings. A two-level DisBN structure model is developed in this study. The parameters used in the DisBN model are obtained either from expert knowledge or through machine-learning strategies from normal system operation data. Meanwhile, the probability parameters are discretized to incorporate the uncertainties associated with typical expert knowledge. Thus, the developed DisBN method addresses the challenges many other BN based FDD methods face, i.e., the lack of fault data for BN parameter training. The developed DisBN represents causal relationships between a fault and its cross-level system impacts (i.e., fault symptoms or fault indicators) by considering how fault impacts propagate across different levels in an HVAC system. A weather and schedule information-based Pattern Matching (WPM) method is employed to automatically create WPM baseline data sets for each incoming real time snapshot data from the building systems. Consequently, BN inference and real-time diagnostics are achieved by comparing incoming snapshot data and the WPM baseline data set. The proposed method is evaluated using experimental fault data collected in a campus building. Fault diagnosis results demonstrate that the WPM-DisBN method is effective at locating the root causes of cross-level faults in an HVAC system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗