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At least 91 records · Page 5

Changes in the Carbon Cycle of Amazon Ecosystems During the 2010 Drought

Satellite remote sensing was combined with the NASA-CASA carbon cycle simulation model to evaluate the impact of the 2010 drought (July through September) throughout tropical South America. Results indicated that net primary production (NPP) in Amazon forest areas declined by an average of 7% in 2010 compared to 2008. This represented a loss of vegetation CO2 uptake and potential Amazon rainforest growth of nearly 0.5 Pg C in 2010. The largest overall decline in ecosystem carbon gains by land cover type was predicted for closed broadleaf forest areas of the Amazon River basin, including a large fraction of regularly flooded forest areas. Model results support the hypothesis that soil and dead wood carbon decomposition fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere were elevated during the drought period of 2010 in periodically flooded forest areas, compared to forests outside the main river floodplains.

Potter, Christophera↗

Design of catalytic monoliths for closed-cycle carbon dioxide lasers

A computer program was written that allows the design of catalytic monoliths for closed-cycle carbon dioxide lasers. Using design parameters obtained from workers at NASA Langley Research Center and from the literature, several specific monoliths were designed and the results were communicated to the research group working on this project at Langley. Two oral presentations were made at NASA-sponsored workshops - at Langley in January 1988 and in Gainesville, Florida in May 1988.

Herz, Richard K.↗

Aera-Mip: Emission Pathways, Remaining Budgets, and Carbon Cycle Dynamics Compatible With 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming Stabilization

While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO 2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -forcing-equivalent (CO 2 -fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (−1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (−1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 -fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed to be zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO 2 -fe emission budget by a factor of 2.2 (−0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor of 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. The median CO 2 -only carbon budget by 2150, relative to 2020, is 800 GtCO 2 for the 1.5 °C warming level and 2250 GtCO 2 for the 2.0 °C warming level. These median values exceed the median IPCC AR6 estimates by 60 % for the 1.5 °C warming level and 67 % for 2.0 °C. Some of the differences may be explained by the choice of the mitigation scenario for non-CO 2 radiative agents. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean remains a carbon sink centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.

Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach↗

Ocean and Atmospheric Profiling Lidar Observations and Its Link to Ocean Carbon Cycle

This study introduces space-based ocean and atmospheric profiling lidar for improving modeling and understanding of ocean carbon cycle. Unique measurements from space-based profiling lidars include (1) the global ocean surface mean square slope measurements for improving air-sea turbulence exchange estimates; (2) the backscatter and beam attenuation measurements for improving the global estimate of partial pressure of CO2 of the ocean with the reduction of uncertainties in primary productivity estimates. Global statistics of CALIOP integrated ocean subsurface backscatter measurements of coastal waters will be presented. The study will also assess the impact of CALIOP on the uncertainty reduction of primary productivity and the improvement of CO2 partial pressure estimates. Ocean surface roughness statistics, its applications in air-sea interaction and its comparisons with other measurements will also be presented

Hu, Yongxiang↗

NASA's Carbon Cycle OSSE Initiative - Informing Future Space-Based Observing Strategies Through Advanced Modeling and Data Assimilation

Land and ocean carbon sinks absorb half of human CO2 emissions. The fate of these sinks in a changing world is unknown, introducing large uncertainties in climate projections. Satellite measurements of atmospheric CO2 are required to better understand the processes governing carbon uptake. Careful planning of future missions using Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) can help ensure that they meet the needs of the scientific and policy communities. NASA's Carbon Cycle OSSE Initiative brings together researchers from multiple universities and NASA centers to create model-derived data products in support of informed mission planning.

Ott, Lesley↗

Metagenomic stable isotope probing reveals bacteriophage participation in soil carbon cycling

Soil viruses are important components of the carbon (C) cycle, yet we still know little about viral ecology in soils. We added diverse 13 C-labelled carbon sources to soil and we used metagenomic-SIP to detect 13 C assimilation by viruses and their putative bacterial hosts. These data allowed us to link a 13 C-labelled bacteriophage to its 13 C-labelled Streptomyces putative host, and we used qPCR to track the dynamics of the putative host and phage in response to C inputs. Following C addition, putative host numbers increased rapidly for 3 days, and then more gradually, reaching maximal abundance on Day 6. Viral abundance and virus:host ratio increased dramatically over 6 days, and remained high thereafter (8.42 ± 2.94). From Days 6 to 30, virus:host ratio remained high, while putative host numbers declined more than 50%. Putative host populations were 13 C-labelled on Days 3–30, while 13 C-labelling of phage was detected on Days 14 and 30. This dynamic suggests rapid growth and 13 C-labelling of the host fueled by new C inputs, followed by extensive host mortality driven by phage lysis. Furthermore, these findings indicate that the viral shunt promotes microbial turnover in soil following new C inputs, thereby altering microbial community dynamics, and facilitating soil organic matter production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced prediction of terrestrial feedbacks to the coastal carbon cycle:using machine learning to improve sub-grid biogeochemical processes

Focal Areas: The paper aims to improve predictability of the coastal carbon cycle through improved model representation and quantification of the terrestrial feedbacks to aquatic ecosystems. The paper covers two focus areas, 1. Improved predictive modeling of terrestrial and aquatic biogeochemistry through ML-enabled surrogate models, and 2. Employing machine learning to integrate multimodal data sets collected across terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems at high spatial and temporal resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of hurricane disturbance and increased temperature on carbon cycling and storage of a Puerto Rican forest: a mechanistic investigation of above- and belowground processes (Final Technical Report)

The overall goal of the Tropical Responses for Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) is to assess the effects of increasing temperature on tropical plant and soil carbon fluxes and storage as the forest recovers from major hurricane disturbance that occurred in September 2017. Ultimately, we aimed to reduce uncertainty and increase confidence with which tropical forests are represented in Earth System models to make more accurate global forecasts of future climate. We focused on both above- and belowground processes and explored temperature controls over critical aspects of carbon and nutrient cycling for tropical plants, soil, and microbes. TRACE is located in a wet tropical forest in the Luquillo Experimental Forest close to the USDA Forest Service Sabana Field Research Station in Luquillo, Puerto Rico. The warming treatment consists of six 4.7 m diameter plots. Three of the plots receive infrared warming and three have the same infrastructure but are not warmed (using ‘dummy’ heaters). Each plot was monitored from 2018-2023 to investigate two major questions: 1) Are there legacy effects of prior warming on forest recovery following hurricane disturbance? 2) Will the trajectory of forest recovery following disturbance be affected by warmer temperatures? Concurrent soil incubation experiments were conducted to enable more controlled mechanistic investigations of temperature response on microbial function. In sum, our goal was to use this novel climate manipulation experiment (the only of its kind in any tropical forest) and once-in-a-lifetime chance to assess how temperature and hurricane disturbance interact to affect coupled biogeochemical cycling in a tropical forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost: Model Inputs and Outputs

This dataset contains model inputs and simulation outputs associated with the study “Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost.” The ecosys model was extended to represent thermokarst processes in laterally coupled two-dimensional transects and applied to the Scotty Creek basin (Northwest Territories, Canada). The ecosys model and documentation is available for download at https://github.com/jinyun1tang/ECOSYS. The dataset contains the inputs used to run the model for this study (meteorological forcing data (1950–2018) and site-specific soil and vegetation parameters) and model outputs used to generate Figure 3 and Figure 4 in the paper (simulated ground thermal and hydrologic states, vegetation dynamics, and carbon fluxes).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Near-Surface Hydrology and Soil Properties Drive Heterogeneity in Permafrost Distribution, Vegetation Dynamics, and Carbon Cycling in a Sub-Arctic Watershed: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of a NGEE-Arctic publication: Shirley et al. (2022) “Near-Surface Hydrology and Soil Properties Drive Heterogeneity in Permafrost Distribution, Vegetation Dynamics, and Carbon Cycling in a Sub-Arctic Watershed". [DOI].The dataset contains outputs from the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the “ecosys” model as reported in Shirley et al. (2022). The study showed that discontinuous permafrost environments are characterized by complex feedback loops and strong spatial heterogeneity which is created by variability in near-surface hydrology and soil properties. Additionally, the study demonstrated that missing representation of sub-grid heterogeneity in terrestrial ecosystem models can lead to biased estimates of the high-latitude carbon budget. Included in this dataset are the factor values for each run in the GSA and the model outputs used in this study. Included are two *.csv data files and one *.pdf.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon Cycle Science Data and Services at the Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information and Services Center (GES DISC)

The Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information and Services Center (GES DISC) archives and distributes a number of observational and model carbon cycle science data sets. We also provide services that facilitate data discovery, intercomparison, and visualization of these heterogeneous datasets for both research and applications users, such as subsetting, format conversion, How-To documentation, and the Help Desk.

Hearty, Thomas↗

Merging Analytic Collaborative Frameworks with New Observing Strategies Toward a Digital Twin: Earth – Episodic Pulse Event Impacts on Ocean Carbon Cycle as an Example

Virtual representations of the Earth will allow us to address some of the most critical environmental issues of our time. Here, we show the first steps toward representation of riverine, estuarine, and coastal carbon processes to enable scenario driven “what-if” analyses of the carbon system and human footprint. Excess sediment and nutrient runoff from land-based human activities impact water quality and can pose serious threats to coastal and marine ecosystems. Episodic pulse events, such as extreme precipitation events, can increase the amount of nutrients entering estuaries and coastal regions, potentially leading to large phytoplankton blooms followed by anoxic conditions. Consequences of coastal runoff are predicted to increase with the higher intensity and frequency of extreme events. Beyond the threat to coastal ecosystems, recent findings suggest these episodic pulses might play a significant role for biological production influencing regional and global carbon fluxes and budgets. An improved understanding of these events through optimal, dynamic observing strategies will increase our knowledge of the land-ocean continuum and how regional events and nutrient fluxes affect the carbon cycle and ocean ecosystem. This conceptual framework enables focused science investigations by pairing data analytics and artificial intelligence tools (otherwise termed an Analytic Center Framework, ACF) with targeted measurement acquisition through distributed sensing and intelligent asset tasking (or New Observing Strategies, NOS). This NOS and ACF iterative approach acquires and integrates complementary and coincident satellite, in-situ and model data to build a more complete and in-depth picture of science phenomena. Specifically, Apache Science Data Analytic Platform (SDAP) is extended to incorporate relevant datasets for data access, harmonized analysis, and anomaly detection. When conditions are met for a likely pulse event, NASA’s D-SHIELD (Distributed Spacecraft with Heuristic Intelligence to Enable Logistical Decisions) tool is triggered to optimize asset overpass frequency and schedule observations for persistent monitoring. Targeted data is ingested by SDAP for enhanced investigation via iterative analysis until the trigger criteria is no longer met - steps toward a digital twin.

Laura Rogers↗

Leveraging High-resolution Molecular Composition of Soil Organic Matter to Enhance Carbon Cycling Modeling

Soils store more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined, yet Earth system models still struggle to predict how this vast reservoir will respond to environmental change. A central limitation is that most soil biogeochemical models represent organic matter using bulk conceptual pools or chemically homogeneous fractions, preventing direct use of rapidly expanding molecular-scale datasets. Here we develop and test a new soil decomposition framework that explicitly integrates high-resolution information on organic matter composition. First, we construct a molecularly informed litter decomposition module in which plant inputs are partitioned into five functional compound classes—carbohydrates, proteins, lignin-like aromatics, lipids, and carbonyls—using a molecular mixing model calibrated to solid-state 13 C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectra. Class-specific kinetics, lignin-dependent physical protection, and substrate-driven microbial carbon use efficiency allow the module to capture metabolic tradeoffs associated with enzyme production and nutrient limitation. We then embed this litter module within a microbially explicit whole-soil model that tracks the transformation of these compound classes through particulate organic matter, dissolved organic matter, mineral-associated organic matter, and microbial biomass. High-resolution Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data are used to link internal pools to measurable soil organic matter fractions and to constrain key process parameters. Applications at soil-core and ecosystem scales demonstrate that the new model reproduces observed soil respiration dynamics while providing mechanistic attribution of CO 2 fluxes to specific chemical classes and pools. Compared to existing frameworks such as the Community Land Model soil biogeochemistry module and the Millennial model, our approach maintains competitive predictive skill while substantially improving interpretability and opportunities for data–model integration. This work illustrates a viable pathway for leveraging molecular-scale observations to reduce structural uncertainty in soil carbon–climate feedback projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental evidence for the impact of soil viruses on carbon cycling during surface plant litter decomposition

To date, the potential impact of viral communities on biogeochemical cycles in soil has largely been inferred from correlational evidence, such as virus-driven changes in microbial abundances, viral auxiliary metabolic genes, and links with soil physiochemical properties. To more directly test the impact of soil viruses on carbon cycling during plant litter decomposition, we added concentrated viral community suspensions to complex litter decomposer communities in 40-day microcosm experiments. Microbial communities from two New Mexico alpine soils, Pajarito (PJ) and Santa Fe (SF), were inoculated onto grass litter on sand, and three treatments were applied in triplicate to each set of microcosms: addition of buffer (no added virus), live virus (+virus), or killed-virus (+killed-virus) fractions extracted from the same soil. Significant differences in respiration were observed between the +virus and +killed-virus treatments in the PJ, but not the SF microcosms. Bacterial and fungal community composition differed significantly by treatment in both PJ and SF microcosms. Combining data across both soils, viral addition altered links between bacterial and fungal diversity, dissolved organic carbon and total nitrogen. Overall, we demonstrate that increasing viral pressure in complex microbial communities can impact terrestrial biogeochemical cycling but is context-dependent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Updated respiration routines alter spatio-temporal patterns of carbon cycling in a global land surface model

Abstract We updated the routines used to estimate leaf maintenance respiration (MR) in the Energy Land Model (ELM) using a comprehensive global respiration data base. The updated algorithm includes a temperature acclimating base rate, an updated instantaneous temperature response, and new plant functional type specific parameters. The updated MR algorithm resulted in a very large increase in global MR of 16.1 Pg (38%), but the signal was not geographically uniform. The increase was concentrated in the tropics and humid warm-temperate forests. The increase in MR led to large but proportionally smaller decreases in global net primary production (19%) and in average global leaf area index (15%). The effect on global gross primary production (GPP) was a more modest 5.7 Pg (4%). A detailed site level analysis also demonstrated a wide range of effects the updated algorithm can have on the seasonal cycle of GPP. Output from the updated and old models did not differ markedly in how closely they matched a suite of benchmarks. Given the substantial impact on the land surface carbon cycle, a neutral influence on model benchmarks, and better alignment with empirical evidence, an MR algorithm similar to the one presented here should be adopted into ELM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulated nitrogen deposition and precipitation events alter microbial carbon cycling during early stages of litter decomposition

Plant litter decomposition is a major nutrient input to terrestrial ecosystems that is primarily driven by microorganisms. Litter quality is considered a key drive of decomposition; however, human-induced global disturbance like nitrogen deposition and increasing extreme precipitation events will shift nutrient availability during litter decomposition. Little is known about how shifting nutrient availability will impact dissolved organic matter concentrations and microbially driven carbon cycling that are critical to soil organic matter formation. This study investigated the effect of simulated nitrogen deposition and repeated precipitation events on microbially driven carbon flow during short-term litter decomposition using a ‘common garden’ experiment with microcosms containing sand and blue grama grass litter inoculated with different microbial communities. Overall, nitrogen deposition decoupled respiration and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) by increasing respiration and not affecting DOC concentrations. Moreover, nitrogen deposition had no effect on microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE). Repeated simulated precipitation events significantly increased DOC concentrations, decreased microbial CUE, increased the microbial metabolic quotient (qCO2), and altered microbial composition and diversity. These findings highlight the complex interactions and responses of surface litter decomposers to shifting nutrient availability and contradicts previous findings that nitrogen deposition will increase soil carbon sequestration from a larger supply of DOC and reduced respiration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Zero-RK Acceleration of Low-Life-cycle Carbon Fuel (LLFC)Simulations

Designing modern combustion systems now relies on computer models that predict how changes in design will affect performance. These models have replaced older methods that relied on the designer’s intuition or costly and time-consuming physical testing. By using improved models, design cycles can be shortened and cleaner and more efficient combustion devices can be created. This project aims to improve computer simulations of low-life-cycle carbon fuels (LLCFs) with the goal of making these simulations faster and more accurate for predicting combustion in vehicles.

02 PETROLEUM↗