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DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Reactor Supply Chain Assessment (GAIN Report)

Several net-zero scenario evaluations predict a rapid ramp up of nuclear energy in the coming decades. If this materializes, it will most likely strain the supply chains associated with the potential advanced reactor concepts awaiting deployment. To help assess the current and potential capacities of the various advanced reactor supply chains, the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) conducted a survey of companies able to produce components for advanced reactors in the near future (namely for sodium, gas-cooled, and molten salt reactors). Using an aggressive nuclear deployment scenario, the objective was to assess the ability of the various supply chains to meet the considerable demand projections for certain key components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors) and identify potential challenges. While individual companies were unable to meet the most optimistic nuclear deployment rate projections, it was found that on aggregate, a United States-based supply chain projected that expansion could be ramped up to meet a larger future demand of these components. However, meeting projected demand for several more complex items (namely gas or salt heat exchangers) was found to be more challenging. Deploying new reactors at scale necessitates the production of more and more supply chain components, requiring a ramp up in production. Supply chain companies were surveyed, and respondents appeared less able to meet short term demand (next year) versus longer-term demand projections (5 and 10 years). This reflects the need to obtain orders with adequate lead times (can range from 3 to 30 months). Future demand will need to be met by expanding existing capacity. These expansions will require suppliers to raise capital or secure other types of support (federal loans or grants) to invest in facilities, equipment, and workforce. Individual suppliers indicated financial investments could be in the range of $\$ $100 million to $\$ $1 billion for their own facilities (depending on the type of facility). The biggest risk, according to respondents, related to general uncertainties surrounding the future nuclear industry and whether the potential demand projections will materialize into real demand that is actionable from a business perspective. Businesses do not seem willing to take investments risks without clear orders. If businesses are not able to invest to expand the supply, it will either delay the deployment of advanced nuclear technology, or the supply chain will be met by suppliers outside of the United States. This report only focuses on the domestic supply chain’s ability to meet the various projections stipulated here for the specific assessed components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors). The report does not cover all reactor designs or all components that may ultimately be needed for any one reactor design. It also does not address whether any specific aspect of the supply chain will be cost competitive in the global market, nor how potential state-backed entities could affect the expansion of a United States-based supply chain. The largest challenges in ramping up capacity among respondents appear to be workforce related. This includes workforce availability, experience, training, and turnover. In addition to facility investment, suppliers will also need to invest heavily in long-term workforce training to meet production goals. This issue is not nuclear-specific, and the expansion of any supply chain will likely face similar challenges. While suppliers evaluated expected normal business demand from other markets outside of nuclear, it is possible that other market segments could expand more than predicted and compete for the same suppliers. One potential market that may compete for the same supplier resources is the United States military, as many of these suppliers support both the commercial nuclear sector as well as the Navy with reactors and components. In summary, suppliers in the United States believe that there is a way to increase production in order to begin meeting the demand which will exist for advanced reactors—as long as appropriate investments can be made in the supply chain in an appropriate timeframe. Based on the capacity projections and lead times, investment will be needed to meet the 5-year and 10-year production targets. Therefore, if significant nuclear deployment is to occur in the 2030s, investment and ramp up of the advanced nuclear supply chain will need to begin in the near future for the United States to successfully deploy these advanced reactors with domestic supply chains.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

2023 Annual Report of Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

DOE maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR’s ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. This report covers impacts on drawdown availability due to SPR operations during Calendar Year 2022. A cavern has an available drawdown if, after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent red flags for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a pillar-to-diameter ratio of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for oil sales, purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern’s drawdown capacity may be continued. A methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern is reiterated. This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditures. A total of 222 million barrels of oil were released in calendar-year 2022. A nearly-equal amount of raw water was injected, resulting in an estimated 34 million barrels of cavern leaching. Twenty caverns have now expended a full drawdown. Cavern BC 18 has expended all its baseline available drawdowns, and has no drawdowns remaining. Cavern BM 103 has expended one of its two baseline drawdowns, and is now a single-drawdown cavern. All other caverns with an expenditure went from at-least-5 to at-least-4 remaining drawdowns.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of overtime phenotypic variation of yeasts in chronic vulvovaginal candidosis cases

Abstract Chronic vulvovaginal candidosis results either from reinfection or from the ability of Candida spp. to persist in the vulva and/or vagina. Persistence is usually associated with increased antifungal (mainly azoles) resistance rates, which can explain treatment failure, and/or increased expression of virulence factors by Candida spp. The aim of this study was to assess the mechanisms leading to Candida spp persistence, by studying sequential isolates from women with chronic vulvovaginal candidosis, focusing on strains genotypes, azole resistance, and ability to form biofilms along the period of clinical evaluation. The strains were identified at species level by automated analysis of biochemical profiles and molecular typing evaluated by polymorphic DNA analysis. The capacity to form biofilm was assessed with a microtiter plate assay. Fluconazole susceptibility was determined by the microdilution broth assay at both pH 7 (following the recommended guideline) and pH 4.5 (as representative of vaginal pH). We studied samples from 17 clinically recurrent cases. In 53% of the chronic cases there were two or more isolates that had a phylogenetic relationship while the remaining (47%) were caused by different species. In those cases where related strains were involved in recurrence, we verified an increase in MIC at pH 7 and also an increased capacity to form biofilms over time. Significant correlation between these two parameters was observed only in cases caused by C. glabrata, evidencing the importance of these two factors to enhance persistence in the vaginal mucosa for this particular species.

Faria-Gonçalves, Paula↗

DOE OSTI2025

HydroBio: Hydropower Capacity and Freshwater Biodiversity in Conterminous United States Sub-basins

This dataset summarizes existing and potential hydropower capacity and freshwater biodiversity at the sub-basin level throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). It contains descriptive information regarding each sub-basin (e.g., 8-digit hydrologic unit code identifier, name, states, and size) along with sub-basin-level summaries of: 1) existing hydropower capacity (MW), 2) potential nominal non-powered dam (NPD) capacity (MW), 3) potential capacity of new stream reach development (NSD) (MW), and 4) freshwater biodiversity, including the total richness of fish, crayfish, and mussels and metrics that account for how rare and threatened those species tend to be. Hydropower data were obtained from Oak Ridge National Laboratory data resources (Existing Hydropower Assets, Non-Powered Dam Technical Potential, and New Stream Reach Development). Freshwater biodiversity data were obtained from NatureServe. Sub-basin characteristic information was obtained from the United States Geological Survey. Additionally, long data that provide lists of unique elements within each sub-basin for each constituent data resource (e.g., NatureServe, Existing Hydropower Assets) are provided to enhance dataset utility for users. The dataset provides, for the first time, a national-level assessment of existing and potential hydropower capacity in the context of freshwater biodiversity and is a valuable resource for stakeholders tasked with providing affordable, reliable energy to the American public while maintaining or enhancing invaluable freshwater resources. The dataset contains six data files in comma separated (*.csv) format that are within a zipped file.

Bozeman, Bryan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electric Access System Enhancement (EASE): Assessment of a Distributed Energy Resource Management System for Enabling Dynamic Hosting Capacity

The Electric Access System Enhancement (EASE) project demonstrated a scalable, interoperable, and cost-effective means of integrating high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). The control architecture developed leveraged a Distributed Energy Resource Management System, Distribution System Operator for transacting energy, and 3rd Party DER Aggregator platform. The project identified ways to enhance the customer interconnection process to the grid and improve access to information from DERs and optimize the usage of DERs to provide energy services in a simulated day-ahead shadow market while maintain grid reliability. By integrating these capabilities into a scalable system of systems, the DSO can effectively balance DER generation and customer demand on the distribution network. This capability allows the grid to host more DER than traditionally possible on wires alone. Hosting more DER has the added benefit of supplying increased demand growth, sometimes beyond the capacity limits of the distribution network itself. This is known as a dynamic hosting capacity, which could help utilities manage the forecasted growth in electricity demand as California switch to electric vehicles and appliances. This could help to establish energy storage and PV generation as a “pseudo firm” generation resource mix if managed appropriately and provide sufficient resource adequacy for distribution capacity upgrade deferrals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating National-Scale Wind Potential Using Spatially Explicit Turbine Layout Optimization

National renewable energy potential assessments play a broad and critical role in analysis of the clean energy transition by providing foundational estimates of developable clean resources. Common to all past wind potential assessments is an assumption that wraps the complexity of wind plant layout (arrangement of turbines) into a single metric known as capacity density, or rated power capacity per unit of land area. Quite often, a singular capacity density or rotor-diameter driven capacity density is used in wind potential assessments across broad geographies despite the complexities of local drivers. Here, we present a new wind technical potential assessment for the United States, leveraging a spatial optimization approach in lieu of the traditional uniform capacity density. The optimization approach is a spatially explicit method for determining the potential locations of individual wind turbines-taking into account the turbine configuration, plant economics and losses, wind resource, and siting considerations. Our approach accounts for the interactions between wind technology design, wind plant layout, and the vast array of regulatory, land use and infrastructure conflicts with wind development. Our results highlight the potential ability of larger turbines to enable increased wind capacity, up to a point, and increased generation when siting turbines in and around spatial constraints; moreover, they demonstrate and capture the LCOE benefit of relatively lower capacity densities and reduced wake losses when land is relatively abundant. These insights provide foundational knowledge for the wind sector as it develops and pursues future turbine models and as wind energy markets expand in zero-carbon futures. Further, when applied in capacity expansion models, supply curves developed by these methods can provide detailed local insights about where wind turbines might be deployed in and among known siting constraints for those regions where wind energy is determined to be economic, providing critical nuance to local decision-makers and stakeholders.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cost and Energy Metrics for Municipal Water Reuse

Municipal water reuse can contribute to a circular water economy in different contexts and with various treatment trains. This study synthesized information regarding the current technological and regulatory statuses of municipal reuse. It provides process-level information on cost and energy metrics for three potable reuse and one nonpotable reuse case studies using the new Water Techno-economic Assessment Pipe-Parity Platform (WaterTAP3). WaterTAP3 enabled comparisons of cost and energy metrics for different treatment trains and for different alternative water sources consistently with a common platform. A carbon-based treatment train has both a lower calculated levelized cost of water (LCOW) ($0.40/m3) and electricity intensity (0.30 kWh/m3) than a reverse osmosis (RO)-based treatment train ($0.54/m3 and 0.84 kWh/m3). In comparing LCOW and energy intensity for water production from municipal reuse, brackish water, and seawater based on the largest facilities of each type in the United States, municipal reuse had a lower LCOW and electricity than seawater but higher values than for production from brackish water. For a small (2.0 million gallon per day) inland RO-based municipal reuse facility, WaterTAP3 evaluated different deep well injection and zero liquid discharge (ZLD) scenarios for management of RO concentrate. Adding ZLD to a facility that currently allows surface discharge of concentrate would approximately double the LCOW. For all four case studies, LCOW is most sensitive to changes in weighted average cost of capital, on-stream capacity, and plant life. Baseline assessments, pipe parity metrics, and scenario analyses can inform greater observability and understanding of reuse adoption and the potential for cost-effective and energy-efficient reuse.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Back to functional hydrides: Effects of neutron-irradiated microstructure on hydrogen retention in yttrium hydride

Functional hydrides are promising candidates for advanced nuclear reactors, particularly in portable or transportable applications, due to their high hydrogen-retention capabilities, enabling efficient neutron moderation, and compact reactor design. However, hydrogen mobility in hydrides at elevated irradiation temperatures poses significant technological challenges, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of their irradiation behavior. Furthermore, this study investigated the microstructural and chemical stability of neutron-irradiated yttrium hydrides to assess their hydrogen-retention capacity. A targeted literature review was also conducted to contextualize neutron-irradiation effects on functional hydrides with regards to structural stability and hydrogen retention. Experimental characterizations revealed that, at high temperatures, irradiated hydrides retained their phase stability, which was likely enhanced by irradiation-induced microstructure evolution. Notably, an amorphous yttrium and oxygen -rich surface layer was present at the free surface of the hydride. Its thickness decreased while a continuous crystalline Y-O-rich layer was formed with increasing neutron damage. Additionally, the number density of dislocation loops and cavities generally increased as a function of neutron dose. First-principles calculations of hydrogen behavior within yttrium vacancy clusters in yttrium hydrides demonstrated vacancy-size-dependent hydrogen stability and configuration, highlighting the role of vacancy geometry in regulating hydrogen retention. Thus, the presence of irradiation-induced dislocation loops and cavities were hypothesized to improve hydrogen retention. Collectively, these findings advance the understanding of hydride behavior under neutron irradiation as well as their technological readiness for portable or transportable nuclear reactors.

Defect clusters↗

DOE OSTI2026

AutoLabs: cognitive multi-agent systems with self-correction for autonomous chemical experimentation

The automation of chemical research through self-driving laboratories (SDLs) promises to accelerate scientific discovery, yet the reliability and granular performance of the underlying AI agents remain critical, under-examined challenges. In this work, we introduce AutoLabs, a self-correcting, multi-agent architecture designed to autonomously translate natural-language instructions into executable protocols for a high-throughput liquid handler. The system engages users in dialogue, decomposes experimental goals into discrete tasks for specialized agents, performs tool-assisted stoichiometric calculations, and iteratively self-corrects its output before generating a hardware-ready file. We present a comprehensive evaluation framework featuring five benchmark experiments of increasing complexity, from simple sample preparation to multi-plate timed syntheses. Through a systematic ablation study of 20 agent configurations, we assess the impact of reasoning capacity, architectural design (single- vs. multi-agent), tool use, and self-correction mechanisms. Our results demonstrate that agent reasoning capacity is the most critical factor for success, reducing quantitative errors in chemical amounts (nRMSE) by over 85% in complex tasks. When combined with a multi-agent architecture and iterative self-correction, AutoLabs approaches expert-authored reference procedures on the benchmark (F1-score > 0.89) on challenging multi-plate syntheses. These findings establish a clear blueprint for developing robust and trustworthy AI partners for autonomous laboratories, highlighting the synergistic effects of modular design, advanced reasoning, and self-correction to ensure both performance and reliability in high-stakes scientific applications. Code: https://github.com/pnnl/autolabs

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Embedded training of neural-network subgrid-scale turbulence models

We report that the weights of a deep neural-network model are optimized in conjunction with the governing flow equations to provide a model for subgrid-scale stresses in a temporally developing plane turbulent jet at Reynolds number Re 0 = 6000 . The objective function for training is first based on the instantaneous filtered velocity fields from a corresponding direct numerical simulation, and the training is by a stochastic gradient descent method, which uses the adjoint Navier-Stokes equations to provide the end-to-end sensitivities of the model weights to the velocity fields. In-sample and out-of-sample testing on multiple dual-jet configurations show that its required mesh density in each coordinate direction for prediction of mean flow, Reynolds stresses, and spectra is half that needed by the dynamic Smagorinsky model for comparable accuracy. The same neural-network model trained directly to match filtered subgrid-scale stresses, without the constraint of being embedded within the flow equations during the training, fails to provide a qualitatively correct prediction. The coupled formulation is generalized to train based only on mean-flow and Reynolds stresses, which are more readily available in experiments. The mean-flow training provides a robust model, which is important, though a somewhat less accurate prediction for the same coarse meshes, as might be anticipated due to the reduced information available for training in this case. The anticipated advantage of the formulation is that the inclusion of resolved physics in the training increases its capacity to extrapolate. This is assessed for the case of passive scalar transport, for which it outperforms established models due to improved mixing predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Balancing Charging Station Utilization and Throughput in Electric Vehicle Charging Stations with Queuing Theory

The rapid increase in electric vehicle (EV) adoption demands enhancements in the efficiency and adaptability of EV supply equipment (EVSE). Traditional EVSE systems often fail to optimize power delivery to meet the variable acceptance rates of EV batteries, resulting in significant energy wastage and reduced operational efficiency. This research addresses these challenges by integrating queuing theory with modular EVSE architectures, offering a dual strategy to optimize the operation of EV charging stations. A simulation model was developed to assess various configurations of charger capacities and outlet numbers. This model aimed to identify the optimal setup that maximizes station utilization while minimizing charging times and maximizing throughput. The model focused on charger capacities ranging from 50 to 250 kW and analyzed the different capacities’ effects on charging times and the number of vehicles served. The results indicate that a charger capacity of 125 kW is optimal, striking a balance between the charging time and the number of EVs served per hour, thus achieving the highest station utilization rate. This capacity allows for servicing a significant number of EVs with moderate increases in charging times. Lower capacities, although capable of serving more vehicles, lead to longer charging times and decreased throughput efficiency. The study underscores the effectiveness of combining queuing theory with flexible, modular charging systems that can dynamically adjust to EV charging demands.

Kumar, Praveen↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regional Assessment for the CO 2 Storage Potential in the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. The report describes the regional analysis of the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend (NNPRT) in Northern Michigan as part of the MRCSP programs Regional Assessment goals. The goal of this task was to perform an initial assessment of the geologic storage capacity and injectivity of the Northern Fairway of Michigan’s Niagaran Reef Trend. This was achieved through three main objectives: 1) development of a reef atlas, 2) understanding the regional trends in geology, and 3) estimating CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources. Data collected across multiple subtasks were integrated into a mappable database that could be accessed from many of the leading software. The reef atlas was used to map the reefs and associated characteristics across the entire NNPRT. Several methodologies were explored to estimate the CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources across the trend which included three scenarios: 1) storage only using fluid substitution and volumetric estimations, 2) CO 2 -EOR which applied proximity analysis concepts and measured performance metrics from the Core Energy reefs to predict performance at all oil reefs, and 3) enhanced storage scenario which combined CO 2 -EOR with fluid substitution to represent maximized storage after completion of CO 2 -EOR.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Materials Process Modeling at the Y-12 National Security Complex

The Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) has implemented process modeling for various accountable nuclear materials operations that are performed throughout the plant. Using a discrete, event-based dynamic simulation program, key nuclear material streams are modeled, allowing Y-12 to effectively manage numerous points of interest within the plant’s production operations. Integration of the various material processes into a single, interdependent supply and demand model is one of the ongoing focuses within Y-12’s process modeling effort. The primary purpose of using dynamic simulation modeling is to allow for analysis of the nuclear materials inventories and forecasted supplies based on future demands. Analysis of these inventories includes capacity evaluation, bottleneck mitigation, and assessments of individual pieces of equipment to inform future facility investment decisions and associated project schedules. Modeling of the nuclear materials processes throughout the complex also allows for incorporation of changes relevant to production capabilities such as the upcoming transition of specific operations to the new Uranium Processing Facility. Prior to implementation of process modeling, Y-12 forecasted supply and demand of accountable nuclear materials streams using Microsoft Excel. With deterministic models such as Microsoft Excel, the annual forecasts, generated within data input condition parameters, can only provide a fixed point of data. Fixed data cannot simulate integrated material streams and account for the possibility of occurrences and other changes that dynamic simulations take into consideration. Y-12’s dynamic process modeling allows integrated simulations of multiple accountable nuclear materials processes, including supply and demand forecasting and analysis, and is a coordinated effort involving many steps of verification and validation (V&V), site briefings, testing, reporting, data mining, planning, and documentation that spans various programs throughout the Y-12 complex.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Field Validation of Air-Source Heat Pumps for Cold Climates

Heating energy is the largest end-use for U.S. residential buildings accounting for approximately one-third of residential building energy consumption (EIA 2021). Historically, air-source heat pumps have been limited to temperate climates because of subpar performance at extremely cold outdoor air temperatures. However, recent advances to cold-climate air-source heat pump technology, which typically rely on inverter-driven, variable-speed compressors and variable-speed fans, have significantly improved low-temperature heat pump performance enabling the technology to save energy for many homes in cold climates. The primary objective of this project was to measure in-field performance of centrally ducted, variable-capacity air-source heat pumps in cold climates to validate performance and develop field-based performance maps. The project focused on quantifying heat pump performance at cold temperatures. The sites identified for the study were primarily located in the Northwest United States since homes in the region tend to have all-electric space heating systems and high-efficiency heat pumps have been incentivized in the region for several years. NREL partnered with Ecotope, Inc., a small energy consulting firm located in Seattle, WA, for site recruitment, monitoring equipment installation, data quality management. All the sites included in the study had previously installed a high-efficiency, central heat pump system. One site was in a Denver, CO suburb, which was the only dual fuel heat pump in the study. We used airside and power measurements, collected at 5-second intervals, to quantify heat pump capacity, coefficient of performance (COP), and auxiliary heater energy consumption. We developed algorithms to automatically determine the heat pump operating mode including defrost and auxiliary heating operation. A whole-house thermal and duct audit was completed during the initial site visit to estimate winter heating loads and assess heat pump sizing. Whole-home heating design loads were calculated at ASHRAE 99% design temperatures and compared to manufacturer-reported maximum capacities to assess the heat pump sizing at each site.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Beyond Expected Values Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of a BISON validation case for the TRISO transient irradiations in NSRR using effective heat capacity methods

The current tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel assessment and validation database in BISON primarily covers steady- state irradiation and high-temperature furnace testing. Transient assessment cases are potentially needed to support U.S. industry efforts in designing and deploying commercial reactors using TRISO fuels. Historical transient tests in- volving TRISO fuels used highly conservative conditions compared to the typical high-temperature gas-cooled reactor accident scenarios. Despite this, modeling historical transient tests is fundamental for evaluating BISON’s predictive capabilities, adapting material properties for high-temperature and high-particle-power regimes, and developing a sys- tematic validation approach for TRISO transient applications. This work developed a 1D model of transient experiments carried out at the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor using BISON. BISON’s predictions of energy deposition, UO 2 melting onset, and molten volume fractions are compared against experimental measurements. Melting was modeled using an effective specific heat capacity model for UO 2 . We found that BISON’s predictions are in reasonable agreement with experimental data for low-energy-deposition cases, and that BISON overpredicts melting at higher energy depositions. We also discuss the potential causes of discrepancies between the simulated and measured results and propose ways to further develop the model. Although these simulations used conservative conditions compared to those expected for actual TRISO-fueled reactors, they extended the range of conditions reflected in the data in the existing BISON database for TRISO fuels.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗