TECHNO-ECONOMIC COMPARISON OF SOLAR-DRIVEN SCO2 BRAYTON CYCLES USING COMPONENT COST MODELS BASELINED WITH VENDOR DATA AND ESTIMATES.
Abstract not provided.
Carlson, Matthew David↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Realizing High-Accuracy Low-Cost Measurement and Verification for Deep Cost Savings (BPA Cost Share CRADA)
Developed practitioner workflows that integrate advanced M&V tools with supplementary automated routines for non-routine adjustments and for quantification of savings uncertainty to indicate rigor. Demonstrated these workflows with Seattle City Light, in collaboration with their implementers and evaluators – determine labor and time/cost savings, and uncertainty of the results obtained. Engaged the Pacific Northwest regulatory community to determine acceptance criteria for the required accuracy and reporting of advanced whole-building M&V. Documented the findings to facilitate broad industry uptake of the solutions.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Thermal energy storage to minimize cost and improve efficiency of a polygeneration district energy system in a real-time electricity market
District energy systems can produce low-cost utilities for large energy networks, but can also be a resource for the electric grid by their ability to ramp production or to store thermal energy by responding to real-time market signals. In this work, dynamic optimization exploits the flexibility of thermal energy storage by determining optimal times to store and extract excess energy. This concept is applied to a polygeneration distributed energy system with combined heat and power, district heating, district cooling, and chilled water thermal energy storage. The system is a university campus responsible for meeting the energy needs of tens of thousands of people. The objective for the dynamic optimization problem is to minimize cost over a 24-h period while meeting multiple loads in real time. The paper presents a novel algorithm to solve this dynamic optimization problem with energy storage by decomposing the problem into multiple static mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problems. Another innovative feature of this work is the study of a large, complex energy network which includes the interrelations of a wide variety of energy technologies. Results indicate that a cost savings of 16.5% is realized when the system can participate in the wholesale electricity market.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
A General Strategy for Batch Development of High-Performance and Cost-Effective Sodium Layered Cathodes
High-performance and low-cost transition metal (TM) layered oxides using earth abundant elements are promising cathodes for Na-ion batteries. However, it is challenging to obtain desired materials because the large Na size, different Na occupations and various layer stacking sequences multiply the complication in determining the structure of a given composition and exacerbate uncertainty to the structure-property correlation. In this work, we use the attainment of desired NaxMnyNiZTM1-y-zO2-based cathode materials as an example to demonstrate a general roadmap for batch development of sodium layered cathodes towards practical applications. A synthesis phase diagram of NaxMnyNi1-yO2 was created for pre-screening and rational selection of the platform material of P2/O3-structured Na0.85Mn0.6Ni0.4O2. Cationic potential was leveraged in elemental substitution to further promote the material structural stability and electrochemical performance. Several cost-effective O3 and P2/O3 hybrid cathode materials have been obtained, all of which demonstrate excellent performance. In particular, the Na0.85Mn0.5Ni0.4Ti0.1O2 delivers a high specific capacity of ~130 mAh/g between 2-4 V and 91% retention after 500 cycles. The work discovers multiple materials as high-performance and cost-effective Na-ion battery cathodes and offers critical guidance to the rational design of future layered cathode materials.
Xiao, Biwei↗
Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Module Manufacturing Costs and Sustainable Pricing: 1H 2018 Benchmark and Cost Reduction Road Map
In this paper we provide an overview of the accounting methods and most recent input data used within NREL's bottom-up crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar photovoltaic (PV) module supply chain cost models. The costs accounting framework that is detailed in this paper provides a methodology to prepare bottom-up c-Si PV supply chain cost models in accordance with the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For the polysilicon, ingot, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, we outline what is relevant for calculations of the costs of goods sold (consisting of the materials, labor, electricity, maintenance, and depreciation of capital equipment); as well as the additional operating expenses of research and development (R&D); and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, &A). This 2017 benchmark analysis is applied to current state-of-the-art manufacturing sites located within the United States, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Germany. Primarily due to country-dependent labor and electricity rates, tax rates, and cost-of-capital considerations, we calculate differences in minimum sustainable pricing for all of these countries. In this paper we also include technical descriptions and bottom-up cost model results for several emerging c-Si technologies including larger Czochralski (Cz) ingots, kerfless wafers, reduced silicon utilization by thinner wafers and advanced diamond wire wafering, new encapsulants and backsheets, shingled cells, and the cell architectures passivated emitter and rear cells (PERC), bifacial passivated emitter and rear totally diffused (PERT) cells, bifacial heterojunction intrinsic thin layer (HIT) cells, and interdigitated all back-contact cells (IBC).
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Modular space station phase B extension program cost and schedules. Volume 1: Cost and schedule estimating process and results
Cost estimates and funding schedules are presented for a given configuration and costing ground rules. Cost methodology is described and the cost evolution from a baseline configuration to a selected configuration is given, emphasizing cases in which cost was a design driver. Programmatic cost avoidance techniques are discussed.
Frassinelli, G. J.↗
Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting
Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).
Comstock, Douglas A.↗
COMPOFF: A Compiler Cost model using Machine Learning to predict the Cost of OpenMP Offloading
The HPC industry is inexorably moving towards an era of extremely heterogeneous architectures, with more devices configured on any given HPC platform and potentially more kinds of devices, some of them highly specialized. Writing a separate code suitable for each target system for a given HPC application is not practical. The better solution is to use directive-based parallel programming models such as OpenMP. OpenMP provides a number of options for offloading a piece of code to devices like GPUs. To select the best option from such options during compilation, most modern compilers use analytical models to estimate the cost of executing the original code and the different offloading code variants. Building such an analytical model for compilers is a difficult task that necessitates a lot of effort on the part of a compiler engineer. Recently, machine learning techniques have been successfully applied to build cost models for a variety of compiler optimization problems. In this paper, we present COMPOFF, a cost model which uses the multi-layer perceptrons to statically estimates the Cost of OpenMP OFFloading. We used six different transformations on a parallel code of Wilson Dslash Operator to support GPU offloading, and we predicted their cost of execution on different GPUs using COMPOFF during compile time. Our results show that this model can predict offloading costs with a root mean squared error in prediction of less than 0.5 seconds. Our preliminary findings indicate that this work will make it much easier and faster for scientists and compiler developers to port legacy HPC applications that use OpenMP to new heterogeneous computing environment.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
The costs of sugar production from different feedstocks and processing technologies: Review of Industrial Sugar Production Costs
Sugar production is essential for the production of foods, biochemicals, and biofuels via biochemical or catalytic routes. Sugar-containing crops, and starch-based and cellulosic feedstocks are resources for sugar production via juice extraction, starch saccharification, and pretreatment and hydrolysis, respectively. Technologies have been developed to attain a high sugar yield; however, production costs are a major consideration in commercializing newly developed approaches to the production of sugars. In this review, the fixed capital and production costs of sugar produced from first- and second-generation crops are summarized. As expected, first-generation crops provide the lowest fixed capital costs, ranging from 0.01 to 0.13 $ kg -1 feedstock, and have production costs ranging from 0.22 to 0.55 $ kg -1 sugar. For cellulosic crops, because of their recalcitrant structure and complex processing, the fixed capital and production costs are higher, ranging from 0.02 to 1.10 $ kg -1 feedstock and 0.10 to 3.37 $ kg -1 sugar, respectively.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Cost Model Comparison: A Study of Internally and Commercially Developed Cost Models in Use by NASA
NASA makes use of numerous cost models to accurately estimate the cost of various components of a mission - hardware, software, mission/ground operations - during the different stages of a mission's lifecycle. The purpose of this project was to survey these models and determine in which respects they are similar and in which they are different. The initial survey included a study of the cost drivers for each model, the form of each model (linear/exponential/other CER, range/point output, capable of risk/sensitivity analysis), and for what types of missions and for what phases of a mission lifecycle each model is capable of estimating cost. The models taken into consideration consisted of both those that were developed by NASA and those that were commercially developed: GSECT, NAFCOM, SCAT, QuickCost, PRICE, and SEER. Once the initial survey was completed, the next step in the project was to compare the cost models' capabilities in terms of Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements. This final comparison was then portrayed in a visual manner with Venn diagrams. All of the materials produced in the process of this study were then posted on the Ground Segment Team (GST) Wiki.
cost models↗
Range cost-effectiveness of plug-in electric vehicle for heterogeneous consumers: An expanded total ownership cost approach
Plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) appears to have sales momentum in major personal vehicle markets but are still at the early market stage. Opportunities to accelerate PEV adoption can be discovered through comprehensive total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis. Understanding the cost-effective electric ranges of PEVs for consumers, manufacturers, and the society is critical for any discussion of PEV mass markets. This study expanded the traditional TCO approach by (1) fully considering heterogeneous consumer driving patterns, (2) quantifying the charging inconvenience and range anxiety cost of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), and (3) monetizing both tangible and intangible PEV policies. Uncertainties were handled through Monte Carlo simulation. The results suggest that BEVs with an electric range of 250–350 km have the lowest TCO in cities with government-enacted purchase limitations, and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) have the lowest TCO in cities without purchase limitations, even when considering PEV subsidies. The lowest TCO for some consumer groups is obtained by BEVs with an electric range of 400–450 km, especially in northern China, where the weather is colder. The cost-effective all-electric range for BEVs in each city in 2025 will decrease due to improved battery performance in cold environments and an expanded charging infrastructure. Finally, based on TCO, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are currently more suitable for drivers with a high average daily mileage or a large mileage variance. However, by 2025, BEVs with a long driving range may become a more cost-effective choice for these drivers.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
The cost of direct air capture and storage can be reduced via strategic deployment but is unlikely to fall below stated cost targets
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to minimize the impact of climate change by tackling hard-toabate sectors and historical emissions. Direct air capture and storage (DACS) is an important CDR technology, but it remains unclear when and how DACS can be economically viable. Here, we use a bottom-up engineering-economic model together with top-down technological learning projections to calculate plant-level cost trajectories for four DACS technologies. Our analysis demonstrates that the costs of these technologies can plateau by 2050 at around $\$$100-600 t-CO 2 -1 mainly via capital cost reduction through aggressive deployment, but still exceed the optimistic targets defined by countries such as the US (i.e., $\$$100 t-CO 2 -1 ). A further analysis of existing policy mechanisms indicates that strong, project-catered policy support will be required to create market opportunities, accelerate DACS scale-up and lower the costs further. Our work suggests that strategic DACS deployment and operation must be coupled with strong policies to minimise the cost of DACS and maximise the opportunity to make a planet-scale climate impact.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Risk and Cost Analysis of Utilizing FLEX Equipment for O&M Cost Reduction in Nuclear Power Plants
Several Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) operators in USA have announced to close their plants despite there are remaining years on their operating licenses. The cause of these closures is because the plant operators suffer financial losses. Approximately 80% of USA NPPs would have undergone financial losses if they were situated in a deregulated electricity market. In a deregulated market, electricity generators are independent entities separate from the transmission companies and Independent System Operator (ISO) which manages the market. NPPs in this market are termed merchant NPPs, and their profitability is determined solely from electricity generation revenues. Meanwhile, regulated and public power nuclear units’ profitability is determined by the regulatory process in place for each unit. Due to the complexity of differentiating each regulated and public power NPP’s regulations 36 NPPs are at an immediate risk of retiring early to stop losses, while 27 units will likely to follow in the long run. Today, cost is well-recognized and important factor in NPP decision-making that cannot be ignored. Therefore, it is essential to consider risk and cost together in decision-making to strengthen the position of the nuclear industry in an economically challenging energy market. With operational and maintenance (O&M) cost at 70% of the total operating expenditure of an NPP and some plants closing prematurely despite excellent safety record, there is an urgent need to address the high O&M cost. One of the novel entities that provide additional safety resulting in reduced risk of nuclear power plants is Flex equipment. Flex strategies were postulated by the US NRC in the wake of Fukushima Dai-chi accident to address beyond design-basis accidents and improve plant flexibility. Flex strategy comprise both onsite and off-site component storage for the provision of additional materials and equipment. This work explored innovative ways of utilizing the onsite Flex equipment during regular plant operation, for purposes in addition to the intended use of beyond design basis accidents. This report describes the risk and cost analysis of using Flex equipment during regular or unplanned maintenance.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Wind Integration Cost and Cost-Causation: Preprint
The question of wind integration cost has received much attention in the past several years. The methodological challenges to calculating integration costs are discussed in this paper. There are other sources of integration cost unrelated to wind energy. A performance-based approach would be technology neutral, and would provide price signals for all technology types. However, it is difficult to correctly formulate such an approach. Determining what is and is not an integration cost is challenging. Another problem is the allocation of system costs to one source. Because of significant nonlinearities, this can prove to be impossible to determine in an accurate and objective way.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Comparative analysis for various redox flow batteries chemistries using a cost performance model
A robust performance-based cost model is developed for all-vanadium, iron-vanadium and iron chromium redox flow batteries. Systems aspects such as shunt current losses, pumping losses and thermal management are accounted for. The objective function, set to minimize system cost, allows determination of stack design and operating parameters such as current density, flow rate and depth of discharge (DOD). Component costs obtained from vendors are used to calculate system costs for various time frames. A 2 kW stack data was used to estimate unit energy costs and compared with model estimates for the same size electrodes. The tool has been shared with the redox flow battery community to both validate their stack data and guide future direction.
electrolyte↗
Cost-optimal wave-powered persistent oceanographic observation
Not Available
Dillon, Trent (ORCID:0000000201036449)↗