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Isomer-Dependent Reaction Mechanisms of Cyclic Ether Intermediates: cis -23-Dimethyloxirane and trans -23-Dimethyloxirane.

Oxiranes are a class of cyclic ethers formed in abundance during low-temperature combustion of hydrocarbons and biofuels, either via chain-propagating steps that occur from unimolecular decomposition of β-hydroperoxyalkyl radicals (β-˙QOOH) or from reactions of HÒO with alkenes. The cis- and trans-isomers of 2,3-dimethyloxirane are intermediates of n-butane oxidation, and while rate coefficients for β-˙QOOH → 2,3-dimethyloxirane + OH are reported extensively, subsequent reaction mechanisms of the cyclic ethers are not. As a result, chemical kinetics mechanisms commonly adopt simplified chemistry to describe the consumption of 2,3-dimethyloxirane by convoluting several elementary reactions into a single step, which may introduce mechanism truncation error—uncertainty derived from missing or incomplete chemistry. The present research examines the isomerdependence of 2,3-dimethyloxirane reaction mechanisms in support of ongoing efforts to minimize mechanism truncation error. Reaction mechanisms are inferred via the detection of products from Cl-initiated oxidation of both cis-2,3-dimethyloxirane and trans-2,3-dimethyloxirane using multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometry (MPIMS). The experiments were conducted at 10 Torr and temperatures of 650 K and 800 K. To complement the experiments, the enthalpies of stationary points on the ˙R + O 2 surfaces were computed at the ccCA-PS3 level of theory. In total, 28 barrier heights were computed on the 2,3-dimethyloxiranylperoxy surfaces. Two notable aspects are low-lying pathways that form resonance-stabilized ketohydroperoxide-type radicals caused by ˙QOOH ring-opening when the unpaired electron is localized adjacent to the ether group, and cis-trans isomerization of ˙R and ˙QOOH radicals, via inversion, which enable reaction pathways otherwise restricted by stereochemistry. Several species were identified in the MPIMS experiments from ring opening of 2,3-dimethyloxiranyl radicals. Neither of the two conjugate alkene isomers prototypical of ˙R + O 2 reactions were detected. Products were also identified from decomposition of ketohydroperoxide-type radicals. The present work provides the first analysis of 2,3-dimethyloxirane oxidation chemistry and reveals that consumption pathways are complex and require the expansion of submechanisms in chemical kinetics mechanisms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of a data-driven neural network model for electron thermal transport in NSTX

A data-driven electron thermal transport neural network (ETT-NN) model, trained on TRANSP interpretative analysis results of National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX), was developed to enable faster and more accurate ETT computation for spherical tokamaks (STs). The model incorporates both convolutional NNs and recurrent NNs, allowing it to simultaneously account for the spatial and temporal non-localities and multi-scale features of turbulent transport, which have been considered only in a limited manner in conventional models. The model was validated through interpretative analysis and predictive simulations using Tokamak Reactor Integrated Automated Suite for Simulation and Computation, demonstrating relatively high accuracy. Additionally, parameter scans were performed on test discharges known to exhibit specific turbulent modes, such as microtearing mode, trapped electron mode, kinetic ballooning mode, and electron temperature gradient mode. The scanning results revealed that the ETT-NN model exhibits the same trends as those observed in conventional gyrokinetic simulations or theories, while also capturing the global nature of turbulent transport, indicating that the data-driven model accurately reflects the underlying physical characteristics. Furthermore, due to the dimensionless nature of the model, we can feasibly expand its applicability by incorporating data from other devices and uncovering the characteristics of ETT in STs in the future.

NSTX↗

Noise and error analysis and optimization in particle-based kinetic plasma simulations

In this paper we analyze the noise in macro-particle methods used in plasma physics and fluid dynamics, leading to approaches for minimizing the total error, focusing on electrostatic models in one dimension. We begin by describing kernel density estimation for continuous values of the spatial variable x, expressing the kernel in a form in which its shape and width are represented separately. The covariance matrix of the noise in the density is computed, first for uniform true density. The bandwidth of the covariance matrix C(x,y) is related to the width of the kernel. A feature that stands out is the presence of constant negative terms in the elements of the covariance matrix both on and off-diagonal. These negative correlations are related to the fact that the total number of particles is fixed at each time step; they also lead to the property ∫C(x,y)dy = 0. We investigate the effect of these negative correlations on the electric field computed by Gauss's law, finding that the noise in the electric field is related to a process called the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge, leading to a covariance matrix of the electric field with variance significantly reduced relative to that of a Brownian process. For non-constant density, p(x), still with continuous x, we analyze the total error in the density estimation and discuss it in terms of bias-variance optimization (BVO). For some characteristic length l, determined by the density and its second derivative, and kernel width h, having too few particles within h leads to too much variance; for h that is large relative to l, there is too much smoothing of the density. The optimum between these two limits is found by BVO. For kernels of the same width, it is shown that this optimum (minimum) is weakly sensitive to the kernel shape. Next, we repeat the analysis for x discretized on a grid. In this case the charge deposition rule is determined by a particle shape. An important property to be respected in the discrete system is the exact preservation of total charge on the grid; this property is necessary to ensure that the electric field is equal at both ends, consistent with periodic boundary conditions. We find that if the particle shapes satisfy a partition of unity property, the particle charge deposited on the grid is conserved exactly. Further, if the particle shape is expressed as the convolution of a kernel with another kernel that satisfies the partition of unity, then the particle shape obeys the partition of unity. This property holds for kernels of arbitrary width, including widths that are not integer multiples of the grid spacing. Furthermore, we show results relaxing the approximations used to do BVO optimization analytically, by doing numerical computations of the total error as a function of the kernel width, on a grid in x. The comparison between numerical and analytical results shows good agreement over a range of particle shapes. We discuss the practical implications of our results, including the criteria for design and implementation of computationally efficient particle shapes that take advantage of the developed theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Symmetry-Based Structured Matrices for Efficient Approximately Equivariant Networks

There has been much recent interest in designing symmetry-aware neural networks (NNs) exhibiting relaxed equivariance. Such NNs aim to interpolate between being exactly equivariant and being fully flexible, affording consistent performance benefits. In a separate line of work, certain structured parameter matrices -- those with displacement structure, characterized by low displacement rank (LDR) -- have been used to design small-footprint NNs. Displacement structure enables fast function and gradient evaluation, but permits accurate approximations via compression primarily to classical convolutional neural networks (CNNs). In this work, we propose a general framework -- based on a novel construction of symmetry-based structured matrices -- to build approximately equivariant NNs with significantly reduced parameter counts. Our framework integrates the two aforementioned lines of work via the use of so-called Group Matrices (GMs), a forgotten precursor to the modern notion of regular representations of finite groups. GMs allow the design of structured matrices -- resembling LDR matrices -- which generalize the linear operations of a classical CNN from cyclic groups to general finite groups and their homogeneous spaces. We show that GMs can be employed to extend all the elementary operations of CNNs to general discrete groups. Further, the theory of structured matrices based on GMs provides a generalization of LDR theory focussed on matrices with cyclic structure, providing a tool for implementing approximate equivariance for discrete groups. We test GM-based architectures on a variety of tasks in the presence of relaxed symmetry. We report that our framework consistently performs competitively compared to approximately equivariant NNs, and other structured matrix-based compression frameworks, sometimes with a one or two orders of magnitude lower parameter count.

Samudre, Ashwin↗

Understanding Superatomic Ag Nanohydrides

Abstract Bulk Ag hydrides are extremely challenging to make even at very high pressures, but they may become stable as the particle size shrinks to the nanometer regime. Here, the formation and electronic structure of Ag nanohydrides are investigated from a superatomic perspective by density functional theory. It is found that as the coverage increases, adsorption energy of hydrogen atoms on Ag 38 cluster to form Ag 38 H 2 n nanohydride ( n is from 1 to 15) can be energetically favorable with respect to bare Ag 38 and H 2 . Furthermore, the adsorbed hydrogen atoms contribute their 1s electrons to the superatom electron count and behave as a metal instead of a ligand. The electronic structure of the silver nanohydrides follows the superatomic complex model, leading to magic or relatively more stable compositions such as Ag 38 H 2 , Ag 38 H 20 , and Ag 38 H 30 , which correspond to 40‐electron, 58‐electron, and 68‐electron shell closings, respectively. Angular momentum analyses of the superatomic orbitals suggest a convoluted interaction of geometry, symmetry, and orbital splitting.

He, Xiang↗

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting Elastic Properties of Materials from Electronic Charge Density Using 3D Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Materials representation plays a key role in machine learning-based prediction of materials properties and new materials discovery. Currently both graph and three-dimensional (3D) voxel representation methods are based on the heterogeneous elements of the crystal structures. Here, we propose to use electronic charge density (ECD) as a generic unified 3D descriptor for materials property prediction with the advantage of possessing close relation with the physical and chemical properties of materials. We developed an ECD-based 3D convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for predicting the elastic properties of materials, in which CNNs can learn effective hierarchical features with multiple convolving and pooling operations. Extensive benchmark experiments over 2170 $Fm\bar3m$ face-centered-cubic materials show that our ECD-based CNNs can achieve good performance for elasticity prediction. Especially, our CNN models based on the fusion of elemental Materials-Agnostic Platform for Informatics and Exploration features and ECD descriptors achieved the best fivefold cross-validation performance. More importantly, we showed that our ECD-based CNN models can achieve significantly better extrapolation performance when evaluated over nonredundant data sets, where there are few neighbor-training samples around test samples. As an additional validation, we evaluated the predictive performance of our models on 329 materials of space group $Fm\bar3m$ by comparing to density functional theory calculated values, which shows a better prediction power of our model for bulk modulus than shear modulus. Because of the unified representation power of ECD, it is expected that our ECD-based CNN approach can also be applied to predict other physical and chemical properties of crystalline materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting the oxidation states of Mn ions in the oxygen-evolving complex of photosystem II using supervised and unsupervised machine learning

Abstract Serial Femtosecond Crystallography at the X-ray Free Electron Laser (XFEL) sources enabled the imaging of the catalytic intermediates of the oxygen evolution reaction of Photosystem II (PSII). However, due to the incoherent transition of the S-states, the resolved structures are a convolution from different catalytic states. Here, we train Decision Tree Classifier and K-means clustering models on Mn compounds obtained from the Cambridge Crystallographic Database to predict the S-state of the X-ray, XFEL, and CryoEM structures by predicting the Mn’s oxidation states in the oxygen-evolving complex. The model agrees mostly with the XFEL structures in the dark S 1 state. However, significant discrepancies are observed for the excited XFEL states (S 2 , S 3, and S 0 ) and the dark states of the X-ray and CryoEM structures. Furthermore, there is a mismatch between the predicted S-states within the two monomers of the same dimer, mainly in the excited states. We validated our model against other metalloenzymes, the valence bond model and the Mn spin densities calculated using density functional theory for two of the mismatched predictions of PSII. The model suggests designing a more optimized sample delivery and illumiation systems are crucial to precisely resolve the geometry of the advanced S-states to overcome the noncoherent S-state transition. In addition, significant radiation damage is observed in X-ray and CryoEM structures, particularly at the dangler Mn center (Mn4). Our model represents a valuable tool for investigating the electronic structure of the catalytic metal cluster of PSII to understand the water splitting mechanism.

Plant Sciences↗

Architecture-Preserving Provable Repair of Deep Neural Networks

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are becoming increasingly important components of software, and are considered the state-of-the-art solution for a number of problems, such as image recognition. However, DNNs are far from infallible, and incorrect behavior of DNNs can have disastrous real-world consequences. This paper addresses the problem of architecture-preserving V-polytope provable repair of DNNs. A V-polytope defines a convex bounded polytope using its vertex representation. V-polytope provable repair guarantees that the repaired DNN satisfies the given specification on the infinite set of points in the given V-polytope. An architecture-preserving repair only modifies the parameters of the DNN, without modifying its architecture. The repair has the flexibility to modify multiple layers of the DNN, and runs in polynomial time. It supports DNNs with activation functions that have some linear pieces, as well as fully-connected, convolutional, pooling and residual layers. To the best our knowledge, this is the first provable repair approach that has all of these features. We implement our approach in a tool called APRNN. Using MNIST, ImageNet, and ACAS Xu DNNs, we show that it has better efficiency, scalability, and generalization compared to PRDNN and REASSURE, prior provable repair methods that are not architecture preserving.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep learning insights into cosmological structure formation

The evolution of linear initial conditions present in the early Universe into extended halos of dark matter at late times can be computed using cosmological simulations. However, a theoretical understanding of this complex process remains elusive; in particular, the role of anisotropic information in the initial conditions in establishing the final mass of dark matter halos remains a long-standing puzzle. Here, we build a deep learning framework to investigate this question. We train a three-dimensional convolutional neural network to predict the mass of dark matter halos from the initial conditions, and quantify in full generality the amounts of information in the isotropic and anisotropic aspects of the initial density field about final halo masses. We find that anisotropies add a small, albeit statistically significant amount of information over that contained within spherical averages of the density field about final halo mass. However, the overall scatter in the final mass predictions does not change qualitatively with this additional information, only decreasing from 0.9 dex to 0.7 dex. Given such a small improvement, our results demonstrate that isotropic aspects of the initial density field essentially saturate the relevant information about final halo mass. Therefore, instead of searching for information directly encoded in initial conditions anisotropies, a more promising route to accurate, fast halo mass predictions is to add approximate dynamical information based e.g. on perturbation theory. More broadly, our results indicate that deep learning frameworks can provide a powerful tool for extracting physical insight into cosmological structure formation. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

An ultra-fast method for generating synthetic down-scattered neutron data for inertial confinement fusion implosions

In inertial confinement fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility, asymmetries are probed by a variety of neutron diagnostics, including neutron imaging systems, real-time neutron activation diagnostics (RTNADs), and neutron spectrometers. It is often useful to generate synthetic data based on these diagnostics to validate and tune models. However, current methods of doing so using Monte Carlo particle tracing are time-consuming. In this paper, an ultra-fast method is presented for generating synthetic neutron images, RTNAD data, and spectrometry data using line integrals and 3D convolutions. While it does not contain as much physics as particle tracing codes, it is thousands of times faster and produces nearly identical data. This enables analysis techniques that depend on generating large amounts of synthetic data, which will prove very useful for the study of asymmetries going forward.

Deuterium↗

Unifying Combinatorial and Graphical Methods in Artificial Intelligence

Recently, a new graph Laplacian, called the inner product Laplacian, was introduced which generalizes many existing Laplacians, including the normalized and combinatorial Laplacian and their weighted variants. The key observation behind the inner product Laplacian is that by defining appropriate inner product spaces on the vertices and edges, the standard Laplacians can be recovered as Hodge Laplacians over the simplicial complex formed by the edges and vertices. These inner product spaces form a natural way to incorporate non-combinatorial information into the definition of a domain-specific Laplacian. In particular, in contrast to current domain-specific weighting schemes which rely solely on edge weights, information regarding the similarity of non-adjacent vertices and arbitrary pairs of edges can be effectively incorporated into the Laplacian. In order to illustrate this approach we consider the problem of calculating the potential energy of an atomistic configuration using Graph Neural Networks. In comparison with start-of-the-art approaches, such as SchNet, our approach replaces a learned (via auto-encoder) representation of the atom types with an inner product space on atoms based on scientific knowledge (e.g., electronegativity). We will illustrate how this approach captures key chemical properties of the molecules and compare the energy calculations with state-of-the-art neural network approaches. However, to compute the resulting Laplacian involves a mixture of sparse and dense matrix computation and yields a dense matrix as the basis for the graph convolution. This dense convolutional kernel necessitates moving away from the standard message passing framework for graph neural networks and increases the computational cost of applying the kernel. In order to mitigate these costs we investigate means of leveraging the mixed sparse and dense computations to reduce the overall computational cost and how these approaches can be automatically transferred to energy efficient hardware (e.g., field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs)).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Equation-of-Motion Coupled-Cluster Cumulant Green’s Function for Excited States and X-ray Spectra

Green’s function methods within many-body perturbation theory provide a general framework for treating electronic correlations in excited states and spectra. Conventional methods using the Dyson equation or the cumulant expansion are typically based on the GW self-energy approximation. In order to extend this approximation in molecular systems, a non-perturbative real-time coupled-cluster cumulant Green’s function approach has been introduced, where the cumulant is obtained as the solution to a set of coupled first order, non-linear differential equations. This approach naturally includes non-linear corrections to conventional cumulant Green’s function techniques where the cumulant is linear in the GW self-energy. The method yields the spectral function associated with the core Green’s function, which is directly related to the x-ray photoemission spectra (XPS) of molecular systems. The approach also yields very good results for binding energies and satellite excitations. The x-ray absorption spectrum (XAS) is then obtained as a convolution of the core spectral function and an effective one-body absorption spectrum. Here this approach is extended to include the full coupled-cluster-singles (CCS) core Green’s function by including the complete form of the non-linear contributions to the cumulant as well as all single, double, and triple cluster excitations in the CC amplitude equations. This approach naturally builds in orthogonality and shake-up effects analogous to those in the Mahan-Noizeres-de Dominicis edge singularity corrections that enhance the XAS near the edge. Themethod is illustrated for the XPS and XAS of NH 3 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Twisted bilayer graphene. V. Exact analytic many-body excitations in Coulomb Hamiltonians: Charge gap, Goldstone modes, and absence of Cooper pairing

We find exact analytic expressions for the energies and wave functions of the charged and neutral excitations above the exact ground states (at rational filling per unit cell) of projected Coulomb Hamiltonians in twisted bilayer graphene. Our exact expressions are valid for any form of the Coulomb interaction and any form of A A and A B / B A tunneling. The single charge excitation energy is a convolution of the Coulomb potential with a quantum geometric tensor of the TBG bands. The neutral excitations are (high-symmetry group) magnons, and their dispersion is analytically calculated in terms of the form factors of the active bands in TBG. The two-charge excitation energy and wave functions are also obtained, and a sufficient condition on the graphene eigenstates for obtaining a Cooper pair from Coulomb interactions is obtained. For the actual TBG bands at the first magic angle, we can analytically show that the Cooper pair binding energy is zero in all such projected Coulomb models, implying that either phonons and/or nonzero kinetic energy are needed for superconductivity. Since Vafek and Kang [Phys. Rev. Lett. 125, 257602 (2020)] showed that the kinetic energy bounds on the superexchange energy are less 10 -3 in Coulomb units, the phonon mechanism becomes then very likely. If nonetheless the superconductivity is due to kinetic terms which render the bands nonflat, one prediction of our theory is that the highest T c would not occur at the highest DOS.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A Multiple Filter Based Neural Network Approach to the Extrapolation of Adsorption Energies on Metal Surfaces for Catalysis Applications

Computational catalyst discovery involves the development of microkinetic reactor models based on estimated parameters determined from density functional theory (DFT). For complex surface chemistries, the number of reaction intermediates can be very large, and the cost of calculating the adsorption energies by DFT for all surface intermediates even for one active site model can become prohibitive. In this paper, we have identified appropriate descriptors and machine learning models that can be used to predict a significant part of these adsorption energies given data on the rest of them. Furthermore, our investigations also included the case when the species data used to train the predictive model are of different size relative to the species the model tries to predict—this is an extrapolation in the data space which is typically difficult with regular machine learning models. Due to the relative size of the available data sets, we have attempted to extrapolate from the larger species to the smaller ones in the current work. Here, we have developed a neural network based predictive model that combines an established additive atomic contribution based model with the concepts of a convolutional neural network that, when extrapolating, achieves a statistically significant improvement over the previous models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Non-Electricity Based Renewable Fuels: Theory and Computation for Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen

Dominated by photovoltaics and wind, current renewable energy sources generate mostly electricity, but 80% of the global final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels. Therefore, direct solar fuel generation would be a major breakthrough for the energy transition. Solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) is one of the very few potential routes towards scalable renewable fuels, but currently suffers from lack of an oxide working material that could optimally perform energy conversion within the thermodynamic boundary conditions. Theory and computation can contribute in two distinct ways, through materials search and discovery, but also by providing detailed mechanistic models for specific systems so to advance our understanding of possible design strategies. To enable high-throughput materials screening, we developed a defect graph neural network (dGNN) machine learning approach,[1] which accelerates the prediction of defect formation energies by replacing the tedious density functional theory (DFT) supercell calculations for all possible defect sites. This approach enables high-throughput database screening of oxides, which was integrated with thermodynamic modeling to extract the reduction entropies as additional selection criterion for STCH. Once potential candidate materials are identified, detailed models can guide materials design by predicting performance characteristics. One challenge is to quantitatively predict thermochemical equilibria at high concentrations when the redox active defects start to interact with each other, thereby impeding the formation of additional defects. Introducing a model for the free energy of defect interaction, parametrized on the basis of DFT data, we simulated the complete STCH redox cycle for (Sr,Ce)MnO3 alloys, achieving near-quantitative agreement with experimental data.[2] The analysis of these simulations reveals how defect interactions diminish the reduction entropy and H2 yield, suggesting to include these interactions in design considerations. Finally, we revisit the popular van't Hoff method for analyzing reduction enthalpies and entropies. This method is not ideal, as it involves a temperature-dependent convolution of gas-phase and solid-state entropies, causing uncertainties in the same order of magnitude as the physical quantities of interest. To avoid this problem, we suggest a simple alternative approach which can be applied to experimental and simulated data alike.

first-principles calculations↗

Tunneling magnetoresistance in MgO tunnel junctions with Fe-based leads in empirically corrected density functional theory

The minority-spin Fe/MgO interface states are at the Fermi level in density functional theory (DFT), but experimental evidence and GW calculations place them slightly higher in energy. This small shift can strongly influence tunneling magnetoresistance (TMR) in junctions with a thin MgO barrier and its dependence on the concentration of Co in the electrodes. Here, in this study, an empirical potential correction to DFT is introduced to shift the interface states up to match the tunnel spectroscopy data. With this shift, TMR in Fe/MgO/Fe junctions exceeds 800% and 3000% at 3 and 4 monolayers (ML) of MgO, respectively. We further consider the effect of alloying of the Fe electrodes with up to 30% Co or 10% V, treating them in the coherent potential approximation (CPA). Alloying with Co broadens the interface states and brings a large incoherent minority-spin spectral weight to the Fermi level. Alloying with V brings the minority-spin resonant states close to the Fermi level. However, in both cases the minority-spin spectral weight at the Fermi level resides primarily at the periphery of the Brillouin zone, which is favorable for spin filtering. Using convolutions of k II -resolved barrier densities of states calculated in CPA, it is found that TMR is strongly reduced by alloying with Co or V but still remains above 500% at 4 ML of MgO up to 30% of Co or 5% V. At 5 ML, the TMR increases above 1000% in all systems considered. However, while TMR declines sharply with increasing bias up to 0.2 eV in the tunnel junctions with pure Fe leads, it remains almost constant up to 0.5 eV if leads are alloyed with Co.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Abstract. The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗