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At least 91 records · Page 5

The link between extreme precipitation and convective organization in a warming climate: Global radiative-convective equilibrium simulations

The rate of increase of extreme precipitation in response to global warming varies dramatically across climate model simulations, particularly over the tropics, for reasons that have yet to be established. Here we propose one potential mechanism: changing organization of convection with climate. We analyze a set of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with an idealized global radiative-convective equilibrium configuration forced by fixed sea surface temperatures varying in 2° increments from 285 to 307 K. In these simulations, convective organization varies from semiorganized in cold simulations, disorganized in warm simulations, and abruptly becomes highly organized at just over 300 K. The change in extreme precipitation with warming also varies across these simulations, including a large increase at the transition from disorganized to organized convection. We develop an extreme precipitation-focused metric for convective organization and use this to explore their connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A case study of microphysical structures and hydrometeor phase in convection using radar Doppler spectra at Darwin, Australia

To understand the microphysical processes that impact diabatic heating and cloud lifetimes in convection, we need to characterize the spatial distribution of supercooled liquid water. To address this observational challenge, vertically pointing active sensors at the Darwin Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site are used to classify cloud phase within a deep convective cloud in a shallow to deep convection transitional case. The cloud cannot be fully observed by a lidar due to signal attenuation. Thus we develop an objective method for identifying hydrometeor classes, including mixed-phase conditions, using k-means clustering on parameters that describe the shape of the Doppler spectra from vertically pointing Ka band cloud radar. This approach shows that multiple, overlapping mixed-phase layers exist within the cloud, rather than a single region of supercooled liquid, indicating complexity to how ice growth and diabatic heating occurs in the vertical structure of the cloud.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structure and Evolution of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Sensitivity to Cloud Microphysics in Convection‐Permitting Simulations Over the United States

Abstract Regional climate simulations over the continental United States were conducted for the 2011 warm season using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection‐permitting resolution (4 km) with two commonly used microphysics parameterizations (Thompson and Morrison). Sensitivities of the simulated mesoscale convective system (MCS) properties and feedbacks to large‐scale environments are systematically examined against high‐resolution geostationary satellite and 3‐D mosaic radar observations. MCS precipitation including precipitation amount, diurnal cycle, and distribution of hourly precipitation intensity are reasonably captured by the two simulations despite significant differences in their simulated MCS properties. In general, the Thompson simulation produces better agreement with observations for MCS upper level cloud shield and precipitation area, convective feature horizontal and vertical extents, and partitioning between convective and stratiform precipitation. More importantly, Thompson simulates more stratiform rainfall, which agrees better with observations and results in top‐heavier heating profiles from robust MCSs compared to Morrison. A stronger dynamical feedback to the large‐scale environment is therefore seen in Thompson, wherein an enhanced mesoscale vortex behind the MCS strengthens the synoptic‐scale trough and promotes advection of cool and dry air into the rear of the MCS region. The latter prolongs the MCS lifetimes in the Thompson relative to the Morrison simulations. Hence, different treatment of cloud microphysics not only alters MCS convective‐scale dynamics but also has significant impacts on their macrophysical properties such as lifetime and precipitation. As long‐lived MCSs produced 2–3 times the amount of rainfall compared to short‐lived ones, cloud microphysics parameterizations have profound impact in simulating extreme precipitation and the hydrologic cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wall modes and the transition to bulk convection in rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection

We investigate states of rapidly rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection in a cylindrical cell over a range of Rayleigh numbers 3 × 10 5 ≤ Ra ≤ 5 × 10 9 and Ekman numbers 10 − 6 ≤ Ek ≤ 10 − 4 for Prandtl number Pr = 0.8 and aspect ratios 1 / 5 ≤ Γ ≤ 5 using direct numerical simulations. We characterize, for perfectly insulating sidewall boundary conditions, the first transition to convection via wall mode instability and the nonlinear growth and instability of the resulting wall mode states, including a secondary transition to time dependence. We show how the radial structure of the vertical velocity u z and the temperature T is captured well by the linear eigenfunctions of the wall mode instability where the radial width of u z is δ u z ∼ Ek 1 / 3 r / H whereas δ T ∼ e − k r ( k is the wave number of a laterally infinite wall mode state). The disparity in spatial scales for Ek = 10 − 6 means that the heat transport is dominated by the radial structure of u z since T varies slowly over the radial scale δ u z . We further describe how the transition to a state of bulk convection is influenced by the presence of the wall mode states. We use temporal and spatial scales as measures of the local state of convection and the Nusselt number Nu as representative of global transport. Our results elucidate the evolution of the wall state of rotating convection and confirm that wall modes are strongly linked with the boundary zonal flow being the robust remnant of nonlinear wall mode states. We also show how the heat transport ( Nu ) contributions of wall modes and bulk modes are related and discuss approaches to disentangling their relative contributions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Convective and turbulent motions in non-precipitating Cu. Part 1: Method of separation of convective and turbulent motions

Atmospheric motions in clouds and cloud surroundings have a wide range of scales, from several kilometers to centimeters. These motions have different impacts on cloud dynamics and microphysics. Larger-scale motions (hereafter referred to as convective motions) are responsible for mass transport over distances comparable with cloud scale, while motions of smaller scales (hereafter referred to as turbulent motions) are stochastic and responsible for mixing and cloud dilution. This distinction substantially simplifies the analysis of dynamic and microphysical processes in clouds. The present research is Part I of the study aimed at describing the method for separating the motion scale into a convective component and a turbulent component. An idealized flow is constructed, which is a sum of an initially prescribed field of the convective velocity with updrafts in the cloud core and downdrafts outside the core, and a stochastic turbulent velocity field obeying the turbulent properties, including the -5/3 law and the 2/3 structure function law. A wavelet method is developed allowing separation of the velocity field into the convective and turbulent components, with parameter values being in a good agreement with those prescribed initially. The efficiency of the method is demonstrated by an example of a vertical velocity field of a cumulus cloud simulated using the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) with bin microphysics and resolution of 10 m. It is shown that vertical velocity in clouds indeed can be represented as a sum of convective velocity (forming zone of cloud updrafts and subsiding shell) and a stochastic velocity obeying laws of homogeneous and isotropic turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrometeor Transport and the Stratiform Water Budget in Amazonian Mesoscale Convective Systems

A significant portion of precipitation falls within the stratiform regions of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). These regions are formed from convective clouds that have either weakened and formed a horizontally stratified structure or have advected hydrometeors to form a trailing-stratiform region, with further precipitation growth promoted by in situ dynamical and microphysical processes. Green Ocean Amazon 2014/5 (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign observations are used to quantify the stratiform water budget of six MCSs (three each from the wet and dry seasons) utilizing the framework from Leary and Houze, with an emphasis on the transfer of hydrometeors (C A ) from the convective to the stratiform regions. The storms were predominantly leading-line/trailing-stratiform MCSs, but two had embedded convection in the stratiform region, which can complicate water budget calculations. A pulse-like pattern with a mean interval of 21 min occurs in C A during each storm resulting from a lag between the initial convective updrafts and the subsequent hydrometeor transport and sedimentation in the stratiform region. Here, the peaks in C A were followed by peaks in hydrometeor growth associated with the mesoscale updraft (C mu ) in the stratiform region. Averaged over the six storms, the positive contributions of C A and C mu to the stratiform water budget were roughly equal, although storm-to-storm variations existed. Negative contributions from evaporation below cloud base in the mesoscale downdraft and detrainment from the stratiform region into the nonprecipitating anvil cloud and environment accounted for 53% and 21% of the sum of C A and C mu , respectively, resulting in a mean stratiform region precipitation efficiency of 26%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influences of the South American Low-Level Jet on the Convective Environment in Central Argentina Using a Convection-Permitting Simulation

This study documents the spatial and temporal distribution of the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) and quantifies its impact on the convective environment using a 6.5-month convection-permitting simulation during the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations and Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (RELAMPAGO-CACTI) campaigns. Overall, the simulation reproduces the observed SALLJ characteristics in central Argentina near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC), a focal point for terrain-focused upscale growth. SALLJs most frequently occur in the summer with maxima to the northwest and east of the SDC and minima over the higher terrain. The shallower SALLJs (<1750 m) have a strong overnight skew, while the elevated jets are more equally spread throughout the day. SALLJ periods often have higher amounts of low-level moisture and instability compared to non-SALLJ periods, with these impacts increasing over time when the SALLJ is present and decreasing afterward. The SALLJ may enhance low-level wind shear magnitudes (particularly when accounting for the jet height); however, enhancement is somewhat limited due to the presence of speed shear in most situations. SALLJ periods are associated with low-level directional shear favorable for organized convection and an orientation of cloud-layer wind shear parallel to the terrain, which could favor upscale growth. A case study is shown in which the SALLJ influenced both the magnitude and direction of wind shear concurrent with convective upscale growth near the SDC. This study highlights the complex relationship between the SALLJ and its impacts during periods of widespread convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DYNAMICS OF TURBULENT CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE OVERSHOOT IN A MODERATE-MASS STAR

We present results of realistic three-dimensional (3D) radiative hydrodynamic simulations of the outer layers of a moderate-mass star (1.47 M {sub ⊙}), including the full convection zone, the overshoot region, and the top layers of the radiative zone. The simulation results show that the surface granulation has a broad range of scales, from 2 to 12 Mm, and that large granules are organized in well-defined clusters, consisting of several granules. Comparison of the mean structure profiles from 3D simulations with the corresponding one-dimensional (1D) standard stellar model shows an increase of the stellar radius by ∼800 km, as well as significant changes in the thermodynamic structure and turbulent properties of the ionization zones. Convective downdrafts in the intergranular lanes between granulation clusters reach speeds of more than 20 km s{sup −1}, penetrate through the whole convection zone, hit the radiative zone, and form an 8 Mm thick overshoot layer. Contrary to semi-empirical overshooting models, our results show that the 3D dynamic overshoot region consists of two layers: a nearly adiabatic extension of the convection zone and a deeper layer of enhanced subadiabatic stratification. This layer is formed because of heating caused by the braking of the overshooting convective plumes. This effect has to be taken into account in stellar modeling and the interpretation of asteroseismology data. In particular, we demonstrate that the deviations of the mean structure of the 3D model from the 1D standard model of the same mass and composition are qualitatively similar to the deviations for the Sun found by helioseismology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Aerosol transport and wet scavenging in deep convective clouds: a case study and model evaluation using a multiple passive tracer analysis approach

The effect of wet scavenging on ambient aerosols in deep, continental convective clouds in the mid-latitudes is studied for a severe storm case in Oklahoma during the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign. A new passive-tracer based transport analysis framework is developed to characterize the convective transport based on the vertical distribution of several slowly reacting and nearly insoluble trace gases. The passive gas concentration in the upper troposphere convective outflow results from a mixture of 47% from the lower level (0-3 km), 21% entrained from the upper troposphere, and 32% from mid-atmosphere based on observations. The transport analysis framework is applied to aerosols to estimate aerosol transport and wet-scavenging efficiency. Observations yield high overall scavenging efficiencies of 81% and 68% for aerosol mass (Dp < 1μm) and aerosol number (0.03< Dp < 2.5μm), respectively. Little chemical selectivity to wet scavenging is seen among observed submicron sulfate (84%), organic (82%), and ammonium (80%) aerosols, while nitrate has a much lower scavenging efficiency of 57% likely due to the uptake of nitric acid. Observed larger size particles (0.15 - 2.5μm) are scavenged more efficiently (84%) than smaller particles (64%; 0.03 - 0.15μm). The storm is simulated using the chemistry version of the WRF model. Compared to the observation based analysis, the standard model underestimates the wet scavenging efficiency for both mass and number concentrations with low biases of 31% and 40%, respectively. Adding a new treatment of secondary activation significantly improves simulation results, so that the bias in scavenging efficiency in mass and number concentrations is reduced to <10%. This supports the hypothesis that secondary activation is an important process for wet removal of aerosols in deep convective storms.

Yang, Qing↗

Cloud-resolving model intercomparison of an MC3E squall line case: Part I-Convective updrafts: CRM Intercomparison of a Squall Line

A constrained model intercomparison study of a mid-latitude mesoscale squall line is performed using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km horizontal grid spacing with eight cloud microphysics schemes, to understand specific processes that lead to the large spread of simulated cloud and precipitation at cloud-resolving scales, with a focus of this paper on convective cores. Various observational data are employed to evaluate the baseline simulations. All simulations tend to produce a wider convective area than observed, but a much narrower stratiform area, with most bulk schemes overpredicting radar reflectivity. The magnitudes of the virtual potential temperature drop, pressure rise, and the peak wind speed associated with the passage of the gust front are significantly smaller compared with the observations, suggesting simulated cool pools are weaker. Simulations also overestimate the vertical velocity and Ze in convective cores as compared with observational retrievals. The modeled updraft velocity and precipitation have a significant spread across the eight schemes even in this strongly dynamically-driven system. The spread of updraft velocity is attributed to the combined effects of the low-level perturbation pressure gradient determined by cold pool intensity and buoyancy that is not necessarily well correlated to differences in latent heating among the simulations. Variability of updraft velocity between schemes is also related to differences in ice-related parameterizations, whereas precipitation variability increases in no-ice simulations because of scheme differences in collision-coalescence parameterizations.

Fan, Jiwen↗

Downward Convective Moisture Transport Dominated by a Few Overshooting Clouds in Marine and Continental Shallow Convection

Abstract In a previous study (Xiao et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003526 ), we found that ignoring the moist convective downdrafts associated with overshooting clouds in parameterizations can lead to significant biases in the simulated depth and liquid water content of a shallow cloud layer. In this study, we seek to better quantify the properties of the clouds responsible for these moist downdrafts to help improve shallow convection parameterizations. We apply a 3‐D cloud‐tracking algorithm to large‐eddy simulations (LESs) of marine and continental shallow convection. We find that top 1% and 2% of the tracked cloud population ranked by lifetime‐mean cloud‐base mass flux can explain 90%–95% of the total downward moisture transport in the upper cloud layer whereas top 10%–20% is required to explain 90%–95% of the total upward moisture transport near mean cloud base. The vertical structure of the clouds in the top 1% and 2% (the overshooting “deep mode”) is also distinctively different from that of the rest of the cloud population (the “shallow mode”). Shallow convection parameterizations need to capture accurately the properties and convective transports of the clouds in both the deep and shallow modes. To do that, our results suggest that mass‐flux parameterizations need to (a) accurately predict the size and number of the deep‐mode clouds and (b) explicitly represent overshooting cloud updrafts and associated moist downdrafts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dependence of Deep Convective Cell Properties on Meteorological and Aerosol Conditions during TRACER

Deep convective cells significantly influence Earth’s energy balance and water cycle. However, their accurate representation in numerical models remains challenging due to their small spatiotemporal scales and limited observational constraints. This study examines over ∼400 deep convective cells near Houston, observed by a dual-polarization C-band radar during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) intensive observation period (June–September 2022). Cells are categorized by lifetime into short-lived (<40 min), intermediate-lived (40–80 min), and long-lived (80+ min) groups. Long-lived cells were broader (∼13.2 km at 2–4-km height) and deeper (∼11.4 km) than short-lived cells (∼6.4-km width, ∼7.31-km height). Using random forest (RF) modeling and correlation analyses, precipitable water vapor (PWV), 2–6-km lapse rate, 0–8-km bulk shear, and fine aerosol mass concentration (Mass_f) are identified as key predictors of cell lifetime. Higher PWV is associated with significantly longer convective cell lifetimes compared to the low-PWV group, particularly within low 2–6-km temperature lapse rate (LR_26km), moderate-to-higher 0–8-km bulk shear (BS_08km), and low-to-moderate Mass_f environments. RF analysis also identifies low-level (0–2 km) equivalent potential temperature, PWV, Mass_f, and surface latent heat flux as key predictors for cell width and height. Short-lived cells have higher aerosol number concentrations (500–1000-nm size range), linked to onshore wind conditions and marine aerosols; however, their low concentration suggests the sensitivity may reflect associated meteorological regimes rather than a direct aerosol effect. Long-lived cells have higher concentrations of organic and sulfate aerosols, while short-lived cells exhibit higher black carbon concentrations. These results highlight the intricate dependence of convective cell lifetimes and structure on environmental moisture, thermodynamics, wind shear, and aerosol characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convection and electrodynamic signatures in the vicinity of a Sun-aligned arc: Results from the Polar Acceleration Regions and Convection Study (Polar ARCS)

An experimental campaign designed to study high-latitude auroral arcs was conducted in Sondre Stromfjord, Greenland, on February 26, 1987. The Polar Acceleration Regions and Convection Study (Polar ARCS) consisted of a coordinated set of ground-based, airborne, and sounding rocket measurements of a weak, sun-aligned arc system within the duskside polar cap. A rocket-borne barium release experiment, two DMSP satellite overflights, all-sky photography, and incoherent scatter radar measurements provided information on the large-scale plasma convection over the polar cap region while a second rocket instrumented with a DC magnetometer, Langmuir and electric field probes, and an electron spectrometer provided measurements of small-scale electrodynamics. The large-scale data indicate that small, sun-aligned precipitation events formed within a region of antisunward convection between the duskside auroral oval and a large sun-aligned arc further poleward. This convection signature, used to assess the relationship of the sun-aligned arc to the large-scale magnetospheric configuration, is found to be consistent with either a model in which the arc formed on open field lines on the dusk side of a bifurcated polar cap or on closed field lines threading an expanded low-latitude boundary layer, but not a model in which the polar cap arc field lines map to an expanded plasma sheet. The antisunward convection signature may also be explained by a model in which the polar cap arc formed on long field lines recently reconnected through a highly skewed plasma sheet. The small-scale measurements indicate the rocket passed through three narrow (less than 20 km) regions of low-energy (less than 100 eV) electron precipitation in which the electric and magnetic field perturbations were well correlated. These precipitation events are shown to be associated with regions of downward Poynting flux and small-scale upward and downward field-aligned currents of 1-2 micro-A/sq m. The paired field-aligned currents are associated with velocity shears (higher and lower speed streams) embedded in the region of antisunward flow.

Weiss, L. A.↗

Convection Weather Detection by General Aviation Pilots with Convectional and Data-Linked Graphical Weather Information Sources

This study compares how well general aviation (GA) pilots detect convective weather in flight with different weather information sources. A flight test was conducted in which GA pilot test subjects were given different in-flight weather information cues and flown toward convective weather of moderate or greater intensity. The test subjects were not actually flying the aircraft, but were given pilot tasks representative of the workload and position awareness requirements of the en route portion of a cross country GA flight. On each flight, one test subject received weather cues typical of a flight in visual meteorological conditions (VMC), another received cues typical of flight in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), and a third received cues typical of flight in IMC but augmented with a graphical weather information system (GWIS). The GWIS provided the subject with near real time data-linked weather products, including a weather radar mosaic superimposed on a moving map with a symbol depicting the aircraft's present position and direction of track. At several points during each flight, the test subjects completed short questionnaires which included items addressing their weather situation awareness and flight decisions. In particular, test subjects were asked to identify the location of the nearest convective cells. After the point of nearest approach to convective weather, the test subjects were asked to draw the location of convective weather on an aeronautical chart, along with the aircraft's present position. This paper reports preliminary results on how accurately test subjects provided with these different weather sources could identify the nearest cell of moderate or greater intensity along their route of flight. Additional flight tests are currently being conducted to complete the data set.

Chamberlain, James P.↗

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils during CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entrainment using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H2Ov), and total water (H2Ot) aboard NASA's WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the free troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils During CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entertainment Using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H20v), and total water (H20t) aboard NASA's . WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the fiee troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗

LOW MACH NUMBER MODELING OF CONVECTION IN HELIUM SHELLS ON SUB-CHANDRASEKHAR WHITE DWARFS. I. METHODOLOGY

We assess the robustness of a low Mach number hydrodynamics algorithm for modeling helium shell convection on the surface of a white dwarf in the context of the sub-Chandrasekhar model for Type Ia supernovae. We use the low Mach number stellar hydrodynamics code, MAESTRO, to perform three-dimensional, spatially adaptive simulations of convection leading up to the point of the ignition of a burning front. We show that the low Mach number hydrodynamics model provides a robust description of the system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗