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NASA NTRS1989

The internal velocity dispersions of three young star clusters in the Large Magellanic Cloud

The radial velocities of 11 to 37 stars have been measured in each of three rich young star clusters in the LMC: NGC 1866, NGC 2164, and NGC 2214. A thorough analysis of the observational errors and contamination by field stars is presented along with a new method to assign confidence limits to the velocity dispersions. Limits are set to the central densities, total masses, and mass-to-light ratios of the clusters, and the question of whether they have unbound halos is addressed. From the small velocity dispersion and large radial extent of NGC 1866, it is inferred that the cluster is not yet tidally limited by the LMC.

Lupton, Robert H.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A large-scale cosmic microwave background anisotropy measurement at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths

A balloon-borne experiment to measure the anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background radiation at angular scales of 4 deg or greater is reported. The instrument simultaneously measures in four spectral bands centered on 5.6, 8.7, 15.8, and 22.5/cm. Three results are presented: (1) the 95-percent confidence limit for monochromatic anisotropies is 0.0001 or less on angular scales of 10 deg; (2) the Galactic plane dust emission at l = 42 deg is consistent with a nu-squared emissivity law at frequencies above 15/cm, with excess emission below 15/cm; and (3) atmospheric ozone at an altitude of 35 km may form clumps as large as Delta emissivity/emissivity = 0.002.

Page, Lyman A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Continental shelf fish production estimation from CZCS chlorophyll data

A method for ocean fish production estimation was proposed for development. The method was to use data acquired with the Coastal Zone Color Scanner, and processed into chlorophyll concentrations by the GSFC ocean Sciences Division, in combination with fish production and primary production data acquired from different ocean areas. A linear relation exits between annual fish production and annual phytoplankton carbon production for a wide range of coastal ocean environments. The uses of several existing algorithms which relate primary production to CZCS chlorophyll data as input to the fish production regression model is proposed. A question relating phytoplankton production to CZCS chlorophyll was obtained by Eppley (1984) using chlorophyll data obtained from field samples, equivalent to chlorophyll data obtained from CZCS imagery, and primary production data obtained from ship-board observations on a wide variety of coastal and open ocean environments. This equation was modified with additional data and was successfully tested using CZCS data and field chlorophyll and phytoplankton production data obtained from northeastern North American continental shelf waters and Atlantic open ocean waters. The modified Eppley (1984) relation also estimated phytoplankton annual carbon production in the Sargasso Sea within the confidence limits of a mean value obtained from the Eppley (1984) equation for oceanic waters that provide about 90 percent of total ocean primary production. The modified Eppley production formula applied to CZCS chlorophyll data obtained from several northeastern North American coastal environments gave phytoplankton annual carbon production values similar to the values used in the fish production regression equation.

Iverson, Richard L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

X-ray properties of bright far-infrared galaxies

The Einstein IPC was searched for observations of galaxies in the IRAS BCS. Of the 324 galaxies in this sample, 81 were observed with the IPC, and 51 were detected at a confidence level greater than 3-sigma. A strong correlation was found to exist between the FIR and X-ray luminosities among the normal and starburst (NSB) galaxies with LX varies as Lfir exp 0.90-1.01 (90-percent confidence limits). The X-ray luminosity of the 10 Seyfert galaxies in this sample is a factor of approximately 10 greater than the NSB galaxies with the same FIR luminosity. The efficiency of X-ray production through star formation is found to be nearly independent of the star formation rate with 10 exp 47.5 ergs of energy produced for each solar mass consumed into stars. It is shown that the X-ray emission from bright FIR galaxies can make a significant contribution to the observed X-ray background.

David, L. P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modelling the hydrological cycle in assessments of climate change

The predictions of climate change studies depend crucially on the hydrological cycles embedded in the different models used. It is shown here that uncertainties in hydrological processes and inconsistencies in both climate and impact models limit confidence in current assessments of climate change. A future course of action to remedy this problem is suggested.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Measurements of the cosmic microwave background temperature at 1.47 GHz

We have used a radio-frequency-gain total-power radiometer to measure the intensity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at a frequency of 1.47 GHz (20.4 cm wavelength) from White Mountain, California in 1988 September and from the South Pole in 1989 December. The CMB thermodynamic temperature, T(CMB), is 2.27 +/- 0.25 K (68 percent confidence limit) measured from White Mountain and 2.26 +/- 0.20 K from the South Pole site. The combined result is 2.26 +/- 0.19 K. The correction for Galactic emission has been derived from scaled low-frequency maps and constitutes the main source of error. The atmospheric signal is extrapolated from our zenith scan measurements at higher frequencies. These results are consistent with our previous measurement at 1.41 GHz and about 2.5 sigma from the 2.74 +/- 0.01 K global average CMB temperature.

Bensadoun, M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Verification of vegetation maps made from remote sensing

Verification of vegetation maps is discussed, including a map of the vegetation of the Mt. Washington area of New Hampshire. This area was chosen to determine the accuracy of mapping by remote sensing at the boundary between two major forest biomass. Verification was carried out by ground observation and through the use of low altitude 70 mm infrared photographs. Two verification sampling schemes were used: a point method and a transect method. Resulting confidence limits gave an area weighted sampling accuracy of 89 pct. Spatial patterns in terrestrial vegetation must be understood in order to choose appropriate spatial resolutions required for remote sensing instruments, and to relate vegetation dynamics to climate dynamics and biogeochemical cycles.

Botkin, Daniel B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

On the use of the noncentral chi-square density function for the distribution of helicopter spectral estimates

A probability density function for the variability of ensemble averaged spectral estimates from helicopter acoustic signals in Gaussian background noise was evaluated. Numerical methods for calculating the density function and for determining confidence limits were explored. Density functions were predicted for both synthesized and experimental data and compared with observed spectral estimate variability.

Garber, Donald P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

On hydrologic similarity: A dimensionless flood frequency model using a generalized geomorphologic unit hydrograph and partial area runoff generation

One of the shortcomings of the original theory of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph (GUH) is that it assumes that runoff is generated uniformly from the entire catchment area. It is now recognized that in many catchments much of the runoff during storm events is produced on partial areas which usually form on narrow bands along the stream network. A storm response model that includes runoff generation on partial areas by both Hortonian and Dunne mechanisms was recently developed by the authors. In this paper a methodology for integrating this partial area runoff generation model with the GUH-based runoff routing model is presented; this leads to a generalized GUH. The generalized GUH and the storm response model are then used to estimate physically based flood frequency distributions. In most previous work the initial moisture state of the catchment had been assumed to be constant for all the storms. In this paper we relax this assumption and allow the initial moisture conditions to vary between storms. The resulting flood frequency distributions are cast in a scaled dimensionless framework where issues such as catchment scale and similarity can be conveniently addressed. A number of experiments are performed to study the sensitivity of the flood frequency response to some of the 'similarity' parameters identified in this formulation. The results indicate that one of the most important components of the derived flood frequency model relates to the specification of processes within the runoff generation model; specifically the inclusion of both saturation excess and Horton infiltration excess runoff production mechanisms. The dominance of these mechanisms over different return periods of the flood frequency distribution can significantly affect the distributional shape and confidence limits about the distribution. Comparisons with observed flood distributions seem to indicate that such mixed runoff production mechanisms influence flood distribution shape. The sensitivity analysis also indicated that the incorporation of basin and rainfall storm scale also greatly influences the distributional shape of the flood frequency curve.

Sivapalan, Murugesu↗
NASA NTRS1993

Potassium isotope cosmochemistry, volatile depletion and the origin of the Earth

We report the first results obtained by our techniques for the precise and accurate determination of the isotopic composition of potassium to constrain the mechanism of volatile element depletion in the formation of the Earth, Moon, and meteorites. Our measurements of delta(K-41) for six chondrites and ten terrestrial rocks attained an average precision of the individual measurement of plus or minus 0.4 percent (2 sigma; plus or minus 0.2 percent/a.m.u. and yield a net chondrite-Earth difference unresolved at the 99 percent confidence limit, delta(K-41) = 0.32 plus or minus 0.35 percent (3 delta). This sets a firm upper limit of 1.3 plus or minus 1.4 percent Rayleigh evaporation of terrestrial potassium (using alpha = square root of 41/39), compared with an observed approximately equals 85 percent chemical depletion of K relative to C1 chondrites. Similar conclusions are reached for the SNC meteorites, Shergotty and Zagami, for 15495 (lunar mare gabbro), and for the eucrite Juvinas. Our conclusion is that direct evaporation of volatile elements from planets (e.g. from silicate vapor atmospheres following giant impact) can be ruled out, and the cause of volatile loss must be sought elsewhere, e.g. nebular processes. Our present findings do not support the conclusions of Hinton et al., the discrepancy to be resolved at a later date. We also find lunar soil 64801, delta(K-41) = +4.99 plus or minus 0.53 percent, to be distinctly heavy in accord with Garner et al.

Humayun, M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

En route noise levels from propfan test assessment airplane

The en route noise test was designed to characterize propagation of propfan noise from cruise altitudes to the ground. In-flight measurements of propfan source levels and directional patterns were made by a chase plane flying in formation with the propfan test assessment (PTA) airplane. Ground noise measurements were taken during repeated flights over a distributed microphone array. The microphone array on the ground was used to provide ensemble-averaged estimates of mean flyover noise levels, establish confidence limits for those means, and measure propagation-induced noise variability. Even for identical nominal cruise conditions, peak sound levels for individual overflights varied substantially about the average, particularly when overflights were performed on different days. Large day-to-day variations in peak level measurements appeared to be caused by large day-to-day differences in propagation conditions and tended to obscure small variations arising from operating conditions. A parametric evaluation of the sensitivity of this prediction method to weather measurement and source level uncertainties was also performed. In general, predictions showed good agreement with measurements. However, the method was unable to predict short-term variability of ensemble-averaged data within individual overflights. Although variations in absorption appear to be the dominant factor in variations of peak sound levels recorded on the ground, accurate predictions of those levels require that a complete description of operational conditions be taken into account. The comprehensive and integrated methods presented in this paper have adequately predicted ground-measured sound levels. On average, peak sound levels were predicted within 3 dB for each of the three different cruise conditions.

Garber, Donald P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Passive microwave observations of the Wedell Sea during austral winter and early spring

The results of multispectral passive microwave observations (6.7 to 90-GHz) are presented from the cruises of the FS Polarstern in the Weddell Sea from July to December 1986. This paper includes primarily the analysis of radiometric observations taken at ice station sites. Averaged emissivity spectra for first-year (FY) ice were relatively constant throughout the experiment and were not statistically different from FY ice signatures in the Arctic. Detailed ice characterization was carried out at each site to compare the microwave signatures of the ice with the physical properties. Absorption optical depths of FY ice were found to be sufficiently high that only the structure in the upper portions of the ice contributed significantly to interstation emissivity variations. The emissivities at 90-GHz, e(90), had the greatest variance. Both e(90) at vertical polarization and GR(sub e)(90, 18.7)(defined as (e(sub V)(90)-e(sub V)(18.7))/e(sub V)(90 + e(sub V)(18.7)) depended on the scattering optical depth which is a function of the snow grain diameter and layer thickness. The variance showed a latitude dependence and is probably due to an increase in the strength of snow metamorphism nearer the northern edge of the ice pack. The contribution of variations of near-surface brine volume to the emissivity was not significant over the range of values encountered at the station sites. Emissivity spectra are presented for a range of thin ice types. Unsupervised principal component analysis produced three significant eigenvectors and showed a separation among four different surface types: open water, thin ice, FY ice, and FY ice with a thick snow cover. A comparison with SMMR satellite data showed that average ice concentrations derived from the ship's ice watch log were consistent with the satellite concentrations. The surface based emissivities for FY ice were also compared with emissivities calculated from scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) satellite radiances. Best agreement was found at 6.7 and 10-GHz, while at 18 and 37-GHz, SMMR emissivities were slightly lower than surface based results. For the three lower frequencies agreement was found within a confidence limit of 95% and for 37-GHz within about 90%.

Grenfell, T. C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Globular cluster photometry with the Hubble Space Telescope. 3: Blue stragglers and variable stars in the core of M3

This paper describes Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/Planetary Camera-I images of the core of the dense globular cluster M3 (NGC 5272). Stellar photometry in the F555W (V) and F785LP (I) bands, with a 1-sigma photometric accuracy of about 0.1 mag, has been used to construct color-magnitude diagrams of about 4700 stars above the main-sequence turnoff within r less than or approximately equal to 1 min of the cluster center. We have also analyzed archival HST F336W (U) images of M3 obtained by the Wide Field/Planetary Camera-I Instrument Definition Team. The UVI data are used to identify 28 blue straggler (BS) stars within the central 0.29 sq. arcmin. The specific frequency of BSs in this region of M3, N(sub BS)/N(sub V less than (V(HB)+2)) = 0.094 +/- 0.019, is about a factor of 2 - 3 higher than that found by Bolte et al. in a recent ground-based study of the same region, but comparable to that seen in the sparse outer parts of the same cluster and in HST observations of the core of the higher density cluster 47 Tuc. The BSs in M3 are slightly more centrally concentrated than red giant branch stars while horizontal branch stars are somewhat less concentrated red giants. The radial distribution of V-selected subgiant and turnoff stars is well fit by a King model with a core radius r(sub core) = 28 arcmin +/- 2 arcmin (90% confidence limits), which corresponds to 1.4 pc. Red giant and horizontal branch stars selected in the ultraviolet data (U less than 18) have a somewhat more compact distribution (r(sub core) = 22.5 arcmin). The HST U data consist of 17 exposures acquired over a span of three days. We have used these data to isolate 40 variable stars for which relative astrometry, brightnesses, colors, and light curves are presented. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test indicates that, typically, the variability for each star is significant at the 95% level. We identify two variable BS candidates (probably of the SX Phe type), out of a sample of approximately 25 BSs in which variability could have been detected. Most of the variables are RR Lyrae stars on the horizontal branch. All of them have periods P greater than or approximately equal 8 h.

Guhathakurta, Puragra↗
NASA NTRS1994

Searches for millisecond pulsations in low-mass X-ray binaries, 2

Coherent millisecond X-ray pulsations are expected from low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs), but remain undetected. Using the single-parameter Quadratic Coherence Recovery Technique (QCRT) to correct for unknown binary orbit motion, we have performed Fourier transform searches for coherent oscillations in all long, continuous segments of data obtained at 1 ms time resolution during Ginga observations of LMXB. We have searched the six known Z sources (GX 5-1, Cyg X-2, Sco X-1, GX 17+2, GX 340+0, and GX 349+2), seven of the 14 known atoll sources (GX 3+1. GX 9+1, GX 9+9, 1728-33. 1820-30, 1636-53 and 1608-52), the 'peculiar' source Cir X-1, and the high-mass binary Cyg X-3. We find no evidence for coherent pulsations in any of these sources, with 99% confidence limits on the pulsed fraction between 0.3% and 5.0% at frequencies below the Nyquist frequency of 512 Hz. A key assumption made in determining upper limits in previous searches is shown to be incorrect. We provide a recipe for correctly setting upper limits and detection thresholds. Finally we discuss and apply two strategies to improve sensitivity by utilizing multiple, independent, continuous segments of data with comparable count rates.

Vaughan, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Anisotropy in the microwave sky at intermediate angular scales

Observations of a low-background region of sky at high Galactic latitude in a frequency band centered at nu = 90 GHz reveal highly significant detections of anisotropy on intermediate (aprroximately 1 deg) angular scales. The instrument is a 2 x 2 array of bolometric detectors operating at 50 mK, coupled to a 0.75 m off-axis parabolic telescope by single-mode corrugated feedhorns. The FWHM beamwidth of the instrument is 0.75 deg, with a beamswitch of +/- 2.75 deg on the sky. Interpreting the detected fluctuations as due to anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background, a likelihood analysis assuming a Gaussian correlation function in the temperature fluctuations yields most likely values of (delta T)/T of 3.1(sub -0.9)(sup +2.5) x 10(exp -5) and 3.8(sub -1.2)(sup +2.9) x 10(exp -5) at a coherence angle of 1.0 deg, for the left- and right-hand detectors, respectively. The stated errors are 95% confidence limits. Confirmation at other frequencies is required to rule out the possibility of foreground contamination.

Dragovan, M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales

Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.

Mann, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Richness Dependence of Galaxy Cluster Correlations: Results From A Redshift Survey Of Rich APM Clusters

We analyze the spatial clustering properties of a new catalog of very rich galaxy clusters selected from the APM Galaxy Survey. These clusters are of comparable richness and space density to Abell Richness Class greater than or equal to 1 clusters, but selected using an objective algorithm from a catalog demonstrably free of artificial inhomogeneities. Evaluation of the two-point correlation function xi(sub cc)(r) for the full sample and for richer subsamples reveals that the correlation amplitude is consistent with that measured for lower richness APM clusters and X-ray selected clusters. We apply a maximum likelihood estimator to find the best fitting slope and amplitude of a power law fit to x(sub cc)(r), and to estimate the correlation length r(sub 0) (the value of r at which xi(sub cc)(r) is equal to unity). For clusters with a mean space density of 1.6 x 10(exp -6) h(exp 3) MpC(exp -3) (equivalent to the space density of Abell Richness greater than or equal to 2 clusters), we find r(sub 0) = 21.3(+11.1/-9.3) h(exp -1) Mpc (95% confidence limits). This is consistent with the weak richness dependence of xi(sub cc)(r) expected in Gaussian models of structure formation. In particular, the amplitude of xi(sub cc)(r) at all richnesses matches that of xi(sub cc)(r) for clusters selected in N-Body simulations of a low density Cold Dark Matter model.

Croft, R. A. C.↗