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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The nth-plant scenario for blended feedstock conversion and preprocessing nationwide: biorefineries and depots

The sustainability of the biofuel industry depends on the development of a mature conversion technology on a national level that can take advantage of the economies of scale: the nth-plant. Defining the future location and supply logistics of conversion plants is imperative to ultimately transform the nation’s renewable biomass resources into cost-competitive, high-performance feedstock for production of biofuels and bioproducts. Since the US has put restrictions on production levels of conventional biofuels from edible resources, the nation needs to plan for the widespread accessibility and development of the cellulosic biofuel scenario. Conventional feedstock supply systems will be unable to handle cellulosic biomass nationwide, making it essential to expand the industry with an advanced feedstock supply system incorporating a distributed network of preprocessing depots and conversion plants, or biorefineries. Current studies are mostly limited to designing supply systems for specific regions of the country. We developed a national database with potential locations for depots and biorefineries to meet the nation’s target demand of cellulosic biofuel. Blended feedstock with switchgrass and corn stover (harvested by either a two- or three-pass method) are considered in a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model to deliver on-spec biomass that considers both, a desired quantity and quality at the biorefinery. A total delivered feedstock cost that is less than $79.07/dt (2016$) is evaluated for years 2022, 2030, and 2040. In 2022, 124 depots and 59 biorefineries could be supplied with 42.8 million dt of corn stover and switchgrass. In 2030 and 2040, the total accessible biomass could increase to 215% and 393% respectively when compared to 2022. However, an $8/dry tons reduction in targeted delivery cost could reduce total accessible biomass by 67%. Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas were identified as potential states with a strong biofuel economy given that they had six or more biorefineries located in all scenarios. In some scenarios, Colorado, Alabama, Georgia, Minnesota, Mississippi and South Carolina would greatly benefit from a depot network as these could only deliver to a biorefinery in a nearby state. To elaborate the impact of a nationwide consideration, the findings were compared with existing literature for different US regions. We also present results for biorefinery capacities that are double, triple, and quadruple in size.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The future evolution of energy-water-agriculture interconnectivity across the US

Abstract Energy, water, and agricultural resources across the globe are highly interconnected. This interconnectivity poses science challenges, such as understanding and modeling interconnections, as well as practical challenges, such as efficiently managing interdependent resource systems. Using the US as an example, this study seeks to define and explore how interconnectivity evolves over space and time under a range of influences. Concepts from graph theory and input–output analysis are used to visualize and quantify key intersectoral linkages using two new indices: the ‘Interconnectivity Magnitude Index’ and the ‘Interconnectivity Spread Index’. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), we explore the future evolution of these indices under four scenarios that explore a range of forces, including socioeconomic and technological change. Analysis is conducted at both national and state level spatial scales from 2015 to 2100. Results from a Reference scenario show that resource interconnectivity in the US is primarily driven by water use amongst different sectors, while changes in interconnectivity are driven by a decoupling of the water and electricity systems, as power plants become more water-efficient over time. High population and GDP growth results in relatively more decoupling of sectors, as a larger share of water and energy is used outside of interconnected sector feedback loops. Lower socioeconomic growth results in the opposite trend. Transitioning to a low-carbon economy increases interconnectivity because of the expansion of purpose-grown biomass, which strengthens the connections between water and energy. The results highlight that while some regions may experience similar sectoral stress projections, the composition of the intersectoral connectivity leading to that sectoral stress may call for distinctly different multi-sector co-management strategies. The methodology we introduce here can be applied in diverse geographical and sectoral contexts to enable better understanding of where, when, and how coupling or decoupling between sectors could evolve and be better managed.

Khan, Zarrar (ORCID:0000000281478553)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intensified Soil Moisture Extremes Decrease Soil Organic Carbon Decomposition: A Mechanistic Modeling Analysis

Earth system models have predicted that there will be more frequent and severe precipitation and drought events in terrestrial ecosystems. Microbially mediated decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) tends to increase as soils wet and decrease as soils dry. However, the long-term SOC change under intensified moisture extremes remains poorly known as it depends on the frequency and intensity of soil drying and wetting. In this study, we explored long-term SOC dynamics under scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles using the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition model, a mechanistic microbial model. The model was parameterized with 11 years of observations from a temperate deciduous broadleaf forest site, showing satisfactory model performance in both model calibration (R 2 = 0.67) and validation (R 2 = 0.69) against heterotrophic respiration. We then used the model to simulate the long-term SOC dynamics under five scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles with different frequencies and severities over a period of 100 years. Results showed that the changes in active microbial biomass C and the corresponding turnover rates of SOC pools were more sensitive to soil drying than soil wetting. As a result, the cumulative soil carbon emission from microbial respiration decreased by 433.7 g C m -2 after the 100-year simulation in the highest frequency and intensity moisture scenario, but was not significantly affected by the lowest frequency and intensity scenario. This study emphasizes the nonlinear response of SOC decomposition to soil moisture changes, which causes decreased decomposition by microbes under drying that is, not compensated by increased decomposition under wetting conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Selection Pressures and Pest Management to Maximize Cultivation Yield (OSPREY) (Final Technical Report)

This project was proposed in response to AOI 1, Cultivation Intensification Processes for Algae, within the FY19 Bioenergy Technologies Office Multi-Topic Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA Number: DE-FOA-0002029). The work was designed to address a critical industry need to improve annualized productivity, stability, and quality of algal production strains for biofuels and bioproducts. The overall project goals were to generate process innovations rooted in established outdoor systems for strain selection, improvement, maintenance, and cultivation as well as pest detection and tracking. Planned advances included a 50% improvement in harvest yield based on AFDW (g m 2 d -1 ), 50% improvement in robustness based on stability metrics (e.g., high-productivity cultivation days, pond uptime), and 20% improvement in conversion yield. Individually, each of our planned process improvements (e.g., pest tracking) had the potential to increase productivity. However, to realize increases in yield at the system level, improvements to one unit’s process must be balanced against potential effects on other processes. For example, changes to strains, cultivation, and pest management developed in isolation may hurt other unit operations. Therefore, a critical success factor of the project was the integration of the pipeline components, achieved through iterative field-to- (short term) lab testing. In addition, through sustainability models, we evaluated how improvements would alter industry scenarios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study

Carbon dioxide and non-greenhouse gas air pollutants are emitted from many of the same sources. Decarbonization actions thus typically yield air pollutant emission reductions, resulting in significant air quality benefits. Although several studies have highlighted this connection, including in the context of net zero carbon emission targets, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how alternative technological pathways to this goal will affect the spatial distribution and magnitude of air pollutants. Comprehensive multi-model and multi-scenario analyzes are needed to explore the relative impacts of alternative pathways. Here, our study begins to address this gap by leveraging the results from the recent Energy Modeling Forum 37 inter-model comparison exercise on U.S. decarbonization pathways. Comparing the results of the six teams who submitted air pollutant emissions suggests that strategies that target net zero U.S. carbon emissions would yield significant reductions in many air pollutants, and that this finding is generally robust across pathways. However, some energy sources, such as biomass and fossil fuels with carbon capture, will emit air pollutants and can potentially influence the magnitude, spatial distribution, and even sign of localized air pollutant emission changes. In the second part of this analysis, a simplified air quality and health impacts screening model is used to evaluate the air quality impacts in 2035 of sectoral emission changes from the three models that provided sectoral detail. Relative to a reference scenario, a net zero pathway is estimated to reduce fine particulate matter concentrations across the contiguous U.S., with health benefits from reduced mortality ranging from $\$$65 billion to $\$$250 billion in 2035 alone (2023$\$$s). These benefits would be expected to grow over time as the net zero trajectory becomes more stringent. Both the magnitude of potential benefits and the substantial variation of the projections across models underscore the need for an EMF-like inter-model comparison exercise focused on air quality.

Air pollutants↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nth-plant scenario for blended pellets of Miscanthus, Switchgrass, and Corn Stover using multi-modal transportation: Biorefineries and depots in the contiguous U.S.

The sustainability of the biofuel industry depends on the development of a mature conversion technology on a national level that can take advantage of the economies of scale: the nth-plant. Here, this study addresses the logistic challenge of mobilizing national cellulosic feedstock supplies for a sustainable bioenergy industry. A Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model was developed and updated to deliver on-spec biomass that considers both a desired quantity and quality at the biorefinery. Our supply chain analysis includes multi-modal transport (truck and rail), varying depot and biorefinery sizes, and feedstock blends of corn stover (harvested by either a two- or three-pass method), switchgrass, and miscanthus. The following US states: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas were identified as key locations for producing accessible miscanthus. Based on our most optimistic scenario, using trucks as the only transportation mode in 2040 with a cost target of $\$$79/dt, corn stover, switchgrass, and miscanthus could help meet 48% of the EPA target, 173 million dry tons that translate into 7.8 billion GGE. The addition of rail transportation for biomass delivery to biorefineries could help meet 79% of the EPA target, 283 million dry tons that translate into 12.7 billion GGE.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water Quality Effects of Economically Viable Land Use Change in the Mississippi River Basin under the Renewable Fuel Standard

Demand for biofuel production driven by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) has coincided with increased land in corn production and increasing nitrogen (N) loss to the Gulf of Mexico. Diversifying cropland with perennial energy crops (miscanthus and switchgrass) may reduce N loss and improve water quality. However, the extent of these benefits depends on the mix of biomass feedstocks (corn stover, perennials) incentivized by the RFS2 and the extent to which energy crops displace N-intensive row crops. We developed an integrated economic-biophysical model to quantify the water quality impacts of three potential policy scenarios that provided corn ethanol at levels before the RFS2 (RFS1 baseline); 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol (corn ethanol only); or 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol in addition to corn ethanol (corn + cellulosic ethanol). Our results showed that economically optimal locations for perennial energy crop production were distributed across idle cropland with lower intrinsic N loss than active cropland. We found stover removal incentivized by the RFS2 offset N loss benefits of perennial energy crops. Furthermore, this finding suggests that targeted incentives for N loss reduction are needed to supplement the RFS2 to induce displacement of N-intensive row crops with energy crops to reduce N losses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Filling the Cellulosic Bio-economy Gap by Utilizing a Wedge Approach Combined with Stakeholder Collaboration

The price gap between the market and breakeven prices of cellulosic biomass for farmers represents a significant barrier to the development of a low-carbon cellulosic bioeconomy. Using a bottom-up, agent-based modeling tool that replicates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, this study analyzes the emergence of a cellulosic bioeconomy at the local scale through a wedge approach that examines an integrated portfolio of multiple policy options, including subsidies for small-scale bioproducts and environmental credits. The role of collaboration among multiple stakeholders, such as biomass producers (farmers), bio-refinery industry, government, and society, is assessed for filling the price gap. Using the Sangamon River Basin as a case study site, we evaluate the effectiveness of the wedge approach by comparing simulation results from multiple scenarios, each incorporating different combinations of bioeconomy wedges, with and without stakeholder collaboration. Results underscore that active collaboration among stakeholders acts as a catalyst enlarging the effectiveness of bioeconomy wedges. Including the carbon credits and environmental value in the policy portfolio is found to bridge the price gap through collective contributions from diverse stakeholders, where the cellulosic biofuel and bioproduct industry plays a pivotal role. Although this study is conducted at the local watershed scale, the methodology and findings offer valuable insights for market development in other watersheds and the potential scaling of local markets to regional and national levels.

Economics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating New Arctic Plant Functional Types in a Land Surface Model Using Above- and Belowground Field Observations: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication "Integrating New Arctic Plant Functional Types in a Land Surface Model Using Above- and Belowground Field Observations". We used field observations of biomass and leaf traits (Salmon et al., 2019b) across a gradient of plant communities on the Seward Peninsula in northwest Alaska (Breen et al., 2020; Iversen et al., 2017) to replace the original ELM configuration with nine, arctic-specific PFTs. Original arctic PFTs in the model were (1) broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub and (2) C3 arctic grass. New PFTs were (1) lichen, (2) bryophyte, (3) evergreen dwarf shrub, (4) deciduous dwarf shrub, (5) deciduous low shrub, (6) deciduous low to tall shrub, (7) alder shrub, (8) forb, and (9) graminoid. New PFTs were parameterized and evaluated using site-level trait and biomass measurements (Salmon et al., 2019b), root C:N ratios and rooting depth patterns (Salmon et al., 2019c), and root biomass (Salmon et al., 2020). This archive contains forcing data and model output from ELM simulations conducted at the Kougarok Hillslope site (Kougarok Road Mile Marker 64). Simulations were conducted for the Kougarok Hillslope site using meteorological driving data from the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP) downscaled climate projection dataset using NCAR-CCSM forcing (Bieniek et al., 2020 dataset; Walsh et al., 2018). The archive includes three versions of model simulations representing a progression from the original model configuration to an Arctic-specific configuration (see Output section below). Simulation 1 used grid cell data from a global E3SM configuration, including the fractional area of E3SM PFTs assigned to the grid cell containing the Kougarok Hillslope site in global simulations. This simulation did not distinguish between different plant communities on the Kougarok Hillslope, but instead used a single point simulation to represent the entire area. Simulation 2 used default E3SM PFT definitions combined with adjusted depth to bedrock for plant communities with shallow rocky layers to represent the role of abiotic soil factors in driving site differences (based on depth measurements of Iversen et al., 2019a), and adjusted the relative areas of the broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub and C3 arctic grass PFTs to reflect the observed spatial coverage of shrub and non-shrub PFTs across Kougarok Hillslope plant communities. Simulation 3 used the new arctic PFT definitions and parameterizations based on the vegetation types present at the site, along with the adjusted soil depths used in Simulation 2. Included are *.pdf, *.nc (NetCDF), *tar.gz, *.py, and *.bash files. We would like to thank Mary's Igloo Native Corporation for allowing us to perform this research on their land and giving us the opportunity to share this research with their community. Thanks to Shawn Serbin and Alistair Rogers for helpful discussions. Holly Vander Stel, Joanne Childs, and Stan Wullschleger helped with collection of field data. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems

Energy transition scenarios are characterized by increasing electrification and improving efficiency of energy end uses, rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector, and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset remaining emissions. Although hydrocarbon fuels typically decline in such scenarios, significant volumes remain in many scenarios even at the time of net-zero emissions. While scenarios rely on different approaches for decarbonizing remaining fuels, the underlying drivers for these differences are unclear. Here we develop several illustrative net-zero systems in a simple structural energy model and show that, for a given set of final energy demands, assumptions about the use of biomass and CO2 sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated. Limiting one resource may increase reliance on another, implying that decisions about using or restricting resources in pursuit of net-zero objectives could have significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bioenergy for climate change mitigation: Scale and sustainability

Many global climate change mitigation pathways presented in IPCC assessment reports rely heavily on the deployment of biomass for bioenergy, often used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). We review the literature on bioenergy, including the modelling of bioenergy in integrated assessment models (IAMs) and bottom-up modelling and non-modelling studies on the implications of bioenergy use. We summarise the limitations of existing modelling studies and what is known about the potential co-benefits and adverse side-effects of bioenergy systems. We find that the implications of bioenergy supply on mitigation and other sustainability criteria are context dependent and influenced by feedstock, management regime, climatic region, scale of deployment and the counterfactual land use and energy system. However, due to limitations of the existing models, and uncertainty over the future context with respect to the many variables that influence availability of biomass and land resources, it is not possible to precisely quantify the sustainability implications for different scales of bioenergy implementation. Given these uncertainties, the dependence on large-scale deployment of bioenergy in mitigation scenarios carries risks. The deployment of bioenergy technologies and the evolution of biomass supply chains at a scale that achieves significant mitigation and carbon sequestration requires integrative policies, coordinated institutions and improved governance mechanisms. As a result, bioenergy, and the use of land to produce biomass, is an essential part of many climate mitigation strategies but there are limits to its use due to trade-offs with sustainability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript analyzing ELM-FATES parameter sensitivity under pre-fire and postfire scenarios using machine learning

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Fire Severity-Dependent Shifts in Vegetation Parameter Sensitivity: A Pre- and Post-Fire Analysis Using ELM-FATES and Explainable AI” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Zahura et al. 2026). The study examines vegetation physiological parameters controlling pre-fire and post-fire vegetation dynamics. To support this analysis, 73 vegetation parameters in Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (Fisher et al., 2018) , which is coupled with E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) land model (ELM, ELM-FATES), were perturbed using a Sobol sequence to generate 1,024 ensemble members for two plant functional types: needleleaf evergreen extratropical trees (NEET) and C3 grass. Simulations were conducted for the pre-fire period (2016) and post-fire period (2018–2023). Burn severity was represented by modifying the Nesterov index in FATES to 75,000, 150,000, and 300,000 for low, moderate, and high severity, respectively. A no-fire scenario was also included. Simulations were performed for 16 grid cells in the American River Watershed across different burn severities and plant functional types. XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models were trained using the parameter ensembles and ELM-FATES-simulated outputs, including leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP), aboveground biomass, vegetation evaporation, transpiration, and soil evaporation. Models were trained separately for each year and burn severity, followed by SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to identify changes in dominant parameters after fire disturbance. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. The data package contains the ELM-FATES simulation data. The scripts and data related to the analysis will be added later. The inputs and outputs from ELM-FATES are inside the “FATES” folder. “FATES_domain_surface” contains the domain and surface netcdfs that were used to run ELM-FATES in the study area. “FATES_parameters” contains the 1024 ensembles that were generated using Sobol sequence. “FATES_outputs” folder contains ELM-FATES simulated variables. All files are .csv and .nc (NetCDF).

Aboveground biomass↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applying double cropping and interactive irrigation in the North China Plain using WRF4.5

Abstract. Irrigated cultivation exerts a significant influence on the local climate and the hydrological cycle. The North China Plain (NCP) is known for its intricate agricultural system, marked by expansive cropland, high productivity, compact rotation, a semi-arid climate, and intensive irrigation practices. As a result, there has been considerable attention on the potential impact of this intensive irrigated agriculture on the local climate. However, studying the irrigation impact in this region has been challenging due to the lack of an accurate simulation of crop phenology and irrigation practices within the climate model. By incorporating double cropping with interactive irrigation, our study extends the capabilities of the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, which has previously demonstrated commendable performance in simulating single-cropping scenarios. This allows for two-way feedback between irrigated crops and climate, further enabling the inclusion of irrigation feedback from both ground and vegetation perspectives. The improved crop modeling system shows significant enhancement in capturing vegetation and irrigation patterns, which is evidenced by its ability to identify crop stages, estimate field biomass, predict crop yield, and project monthly leaf area index. The improved simulation of large-scale irrigated crops in the NCP can further enhance our understanding of the intricate relationship between agricultural development and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Biorefinery siting and sizing to achieve the US Billion‐Ton Bioeconomy vision: A case study using a gasification–Fischer–Tropsch process

Achieving a secure, abundant, and affordable energy future requires a robust and adaptable energy strategy, with bioenergy playing a pivotal role. Biomass-based energy presents a promising pathway to use domestic resources while fostering economic opportunities in rural areas. Despite the potential to source more than 1 billion dry short tons of biomass annually in the US, significant infrastructure and economic barriers hinder full utilization for energy production. This study used the Biofuel Infrastructure, Logistics, and Transportation (BILT) model to assess biorefinery siting and scale and determine the number and size of facilities required to maximize use of the US biomass potential. A spatially agnostic approach first assessed the effects of facility capacity and transportation constraints on biomass use. Then, a spatially explicit analysis integrated county-level biomass availability from the US Department of Energy's 2023 Billion-Ton Report and technoeconomic assessments to evaluate different biorefinery deployment scenarios. The results indicate that an optimized mix of facility sizes is essential to leverage biomass resources fully across varying regional production densities to maximize use of the US biomass potential. Larger biorefineries or co-located smaller facilities significantly enhance biomass use while reducing costs through economies of scale. These findings underscore the importance of strategically balancing facility capacity and spatial distribution to optimize the bioenergy supply chain. In conclusion, this study provides critical insights for advancing the US bioenergy economy by aligning biorefinery deployment with biomass resource availability and economic viability.

BILT Model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Land‐based climate solutions for the United States

Abstract Meeting end‐of‐century global warming targets requires aggressive action on multiple fronts. Recent reports note the futility of addressing mitigation goals without fully engaging the agricultural sector, yet no available assessments combine both nature‐based solutions (reforestation, grassland and wetland protection, and agricultural practice change) and cellulosic bioenergy for a single geographic region. Collectively, these solutions might offer a suite of climate, biodiversity, and other benefits greater than either alone. Nature‐based solutions are largely constrained by the duration of carbon accrual in soils and forest biomass; each of these carbon pools will eventually saturate. Bioenergy solutions can last indefinitely but carry significant environmental risk if carelessly deployed. We detail a simplified scenario for the United States that illustrates the benefits of combining approaches. We assign a portion of non‐forested former cropland to bioenergy sufficient to meet projected mid‐century transportation needs, with the remainder assigned to nature‐based solutions such as reforestation. Bottom‐up mitigation potentials for the aggregate contributions of crop, grazing, forest, and bioenergy lands are assessed by including in a Monte Carlo model conservative ranges for cost‐effective local mitigation capacities, together with ranges for (a) areal extents that avoid double counting and include realistic adoption rates and (b) the projected duration of different carbon sinks. The projected duration illustrates the net effect of eventually saturating soil carbon pools in the case of most strategies, and additionally saturating biomass carbon pools in the case of forest management. Results show a conservative end‐of‐century mitigation capacity of 110 (57–178) Gt CO 2 e for the U.S., ~50% higher than existing estimates that prioritize nature‐based or bioenergy solutions separately. Further research is needed to shrink uncertainties, but there is sufficient confidence in the general magnitude and direction of a combined approach to plan for deployment now.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulated Biomass Sorghum GHG Reduction Potential is Similar to Maize

Policy support for cellulosic biofuels is contingent on their achieving much greater reductions in life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions than corn starch ethanol. Biomass sorghum has been suggested as a genetically and agronomically tractable feedstock species to augment near-term cellulosic feedstock production. This study used DayCent modeling to investigate biomass sorghum production emissions relative to corn with and without stover utilization at 3,265 across the rainfed United States. Sorghum produced greater average feedstock dry matter (15.6±1.4 vs. 14.8±2.2 Mg ha -1 yr -1 ) and slightly lower estimated ethanol energy yields (10.6±1.0 vs. 11.8±2.9 MJ m -2 yr -1 ) as corn grain with 75% stover collection. The high biomass removals in both the sorghum and corn stover scenarios led to soil organic carbon losses on 90% and 100% of sites, respectively. Average feedstock production emissions intensities were similar between sorghum and corn with 75% stover removal (17.6±2.8 vs. 18.8±3.0 g CO 2 e MJ -1 ), but were notably lower under sorghum for sites in the southwestern study region (13.6±3.0 vs. 22.5±3.1 g CO 2 e MJ -1 ). Futhermore, these results suggest that biomass sorghum produces cellulosic feedstock with similar emissions to corn grain and at current yield levels is unlikely to meet the Renewable Fuel Standard emissions reduction threshold for cellulosic biofuels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of an enzyme cocktail to bioconvert untapped starch in sweet sorghum processing by-products: Part II. Application and economic potential

Demand for bioethanol and other biochemicals produced from agricultural crops has increased. Sweet sorghum has been identified as a promising bioenergy crop as it can produce starch, sugar, and fibrous biomass. During processing, starch accumulates in the juice sediments and clarification mud. And, while currently not recovered, it can be made accessible for fermentation by enzymatic hydrolysis. The enzymatic hydrolysis of starch in sweet sorghum processing streams was investigated, followed by fermentation of the resulting glucose to ethanol. The juice sediment contained sufficient starch to increase fermentable sugars by 127%, allowing a final ethanol titer of 11.1 vol%. The economics for fermentation of only dissolved sugars (Scenario 1) versus dissolved sugars and hydrolyzed starch (Scenario 2) were compared using a technoeconomic model. Fixed capital cost was found to be similar for both scenarios. For a set harvest period, Scenario 2 could produce 20% more ethanol; however, if the distillation by-product was dried and marketed as animal feed, Scenario 1 was more cost effective. A plant producing 5.6–5.7 Mkg of fuel ethanol per year had a minimum selling price of $0.67/kg of ethanol with concurrent production of animal feed and zero cost sweet sorghum processing. Finally, even with these optimistic assumptions, the estimated production cost was higher than the current wholesale price of fuel ethanol.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data from: Land-based climate solutions for the United States

Meeting end-of-century global warming targets requires aggressive action on multiple fronts. Recent reports note the futility of addressing mitigation goals without fully engaging the agricultural sector, yet no available assessments combine both nature-based solutions (reforestation, grassland and wetland protection, and agricultural practice change) and cellulosic bioenergy for a single geographic region. Collectively, these solutions might offer a suite of climate, biodiversity, and other benefits greater than either alone. Nature-based solutions are largely constrained by the duration of carbon accrual in soils and forest biomass; each of these carbon pools will eventually saturate. Bioenergy solutions can last indefinitely but carry significant environmental risk if carelessly deployed. We detail a simplified scenario for the U.S. that illustrates the benefits of combining approaches. We assign a portion of non-forested former cropland to bioenergy sufficient to meet projected mid-century transportation needs, with the remainder assigned to nature-based solutions such as reforestation. Bottom-up mitigation potentials for the aggregate contributions of crop, grazing, forest, and bioenergy lands are assessed by including in a Monte Carlo model conservative ranges for cost-effective local mitigation capacities, together with ranges for (a) areal extents that avoid double counting and include realistic adoption rates and (b) the projected duration of different carbon sinks. The projected duration illustrates the net effect of eventually saturating soil carbon pools in the case of most strategies, and additionally saturating biomass carbon pools in the case of reforestation. Results show a conservative end-of-century mitigation capacity of 110 (57 – 178) Gt CO2e for the U.S., ~50% higher than existing estimates that prioritize nature-based or bioenergy solutions separately. Further research is needed to shrink uncertainties but there is sufficient confidence in the general magnitude and direction of a combined approach to plan for deployment now.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗