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NASA NTRS2022

Satellite-Based Evaluation of AeroCom Model Bias in Biomass Burning Regions

Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by −93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.

biomass burning aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microstructural Underpinnings of Giant Intrinsic Exchange Bias in Epitaxial NiCo 2 O 4 Thin Films

Understanding intrinsic exchange bias in nominally single-component ferromagnetic or ferrimagnetic materials is crucial for simplifying related device architectures. However, the mechanisms behind this phenomenon and its tunability remain elusive, which hinders the efforts to achieve unidirectional magnetization for widespread applications. Inspired by the high tunability of ferrimagnetic inverse spinel NiCo 2 O 4 , the origin of intrinsic exchange bias in NiCo 2 O 4 (111) films deposited on Al 2 O 3 (0001) substrates are investigated. The comprehensive characterizations, including electron diffraction, X-ray reflectometry and spectroscopy, and polarized neutron reflectometry, reveal that intrinsic exchange bias in NiCo 2 O 4 (111)/Al 2 O 3 (0001) arises from a reconstructed antiferromagnetic rock-salt Ni x Co 1-x O layer at the interface between the film and the substrate due to a significant structural mismatch. Remarkably, by engineering the interfacial structure under optimal growth conditions, it can achieve exchange bias larger than coercivity, leading to unidirectional magnetization. Such giant intrinsic exchange bias can be utilized for realistic device applications. This work establishes a new material platform based on NiCo 2 O 4 , an emergent spintronics material, to study tunable interfacial magnetic and spintronic properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Machine Learning Bias Correction on Large–Scale Environment of High–Impact Weather Systems in E3SM Atmosphere Model

Large–scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes are common environmental drivers of high–impact weather systems causing extreme weather events. However, such large–scale environmental conditions often display systematic biases in climate simulations, posing challenges to evaluating high–impact weather systems and extreme weather events. In this paper, a machine learning (ML) approach was employed to bias correct the large–scale wind, temperature, and humidity simulated by the atmospheric component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) at ~1° resolution. The usefulness of the ML approach for extreme weather analysis was demonstrated with a focus on three high–impact weather systems, including tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and atmospheric rivers (ARs). We show that the ML model can effectively reduce climate bias in large–scale wind, temperature, and humidity while preserving their responses to imposed climate change perturbations. The bias correction is found to directly improve water vapor transport associated with ARs, and representations of thermodynamical flows associated with ETCs. When the bias–corrected large–scale winds are used to drive a synthetic TC track forecast model over the Atlantic basin, the resulting TC track density agrees better with that of the TC track model driven by observed winds. In addition, the ML model insignificantly interferes with the mean climate change signals of large–scale storm environments as well as the occurrence and intensity of three weather systems. This study suggests that the proposed ML approach can be used to improve the downscaling of extreme weather events by providing more realistic large–scale storm environments simulated by low–resolution climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Addressing bias in bagging and boosting regression models

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread, there is increasing attention on investigating bias in machine learning (ML) models. Previous research concentrated on classification problems, with little emphasis on regression models. This paper presents an easy-to-apply and effective methodology for mitigating bias in bagging and boosting regression models, that is also applicable to any model trained through minimizing a differentiable loss function. Our methodology measures bias rigorously and extends the ML model's loss function with a regularization term to penalize high correlations between model errors and protected attributes. We applied our approach to three popular tree-based ensemble models: a random forest model (RF), a gradient-boosted model (GBT), and an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). We implemented our methodology on a case study for predicting road-level traffic volume, where RF, GBT, and XGBoost models were shown to have high accuracy. Despite high accuracy, the ML models were shown to perform poorly on roads in minority-populated areas. Our bias mitigation approach reduced minority-related bias by over 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Codon bias, nucleotide selection, and genome size predict in situ bacterial growth rate and transcription in rewetted soil

In soils, the first rain after a prolonged dry period represents a major pulse event impacting soil microbial community function, yet we lack a full understanding of the genomic traits associated with the microbial response to rewetting. Genomic traits such as codon usage bias and genome size have been linked to bacterial growth in soils—however, often through measurements in culture. Here, we used metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) with 18 O-water stable isotope probing and metatranscriptomics to track genomic traits associated with growth and transcription of soil microorganisms over one week following rewetting of a grassland soil. We found that codon bias in ribosomal protein genes was the strongest predictor of growth rate. We also found higher growth rates in bacteria with smaller genomes, suggesting that reduced genome size enables a faster response to pulses in soil bacteria. Faster transcriptional upregulation of ribosomal protein genes was associated with high codon bias and increased nucleotide skew. We found that several of these relationships existed within phyla, indicating that these associations between genomic traits and activity could be generalized characteristics of soil bacteria. Finally, we used publicly available metagenomes to assess the distribution of codon bias across a pH gradient and found that microbial communities in higher pH soils—which are often more water limited and pulse driven—have higher codon usage bias in their ribosomal protein genes. Together, these results provide evidence that genomic characteristics affect soil microbial activity during rewetting and pose a potential fitness advantage for soil bacteria where water and nutrient availability are episodic.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Sensor biases effect on the estimation algorithm for performance-seeking controllers

The performance-seeking-control algorithm (PSC) is designed to continuously optimize the performance of propulsion systems. The PSC uses a nominal model of the propulsion system and estimates, in flight, the engine deviation parameters (EDPs) characterizing engine deviations with respect to nominal conditions. In practice, the measurement biases (or model uncertainties) may prevent the estimated EDPs from reflecting the engine's actual off-nominal condition. This factor has a direct impact on the PSC scheme exacerbated by the open-loop character of the algorithm. An observability analysis shows that the biases cannot be estimated together with the EDPs. Moreover, biases and EDPs turn out to have equivalent effects on the measurements, leaving it undecided whether the estimated EDPs represent the actual engine deviation or whether they simply reflect the measurement biases. In this article, the effects produced by unknown measurement biases over the estimation algorithm are evaluated. This evaluation allows for identification of the most critical measurements for application of the PSC algorithm to an F100 engine.

F100 ENGINE↗

NASA NTRS2013

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1∕8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

extreme climate index↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Peelle’s Pertinent Puzzle bias in generalized least squares regression through eigenspectrum analysis

Certain correlation structures in the data covariance matrix (DCM) used for generalized least squares (GLS) regression can result in biased estimates, commonly known in the field of nuclear data evaluation as Peele’s Pertinent Puzzle (PPP). This article introduces a generative, forward modeling framework within which the PPP bias is characterized through an eigenspectrum analysis of the DCM. This analysis highlights the root cause of the bias, generalizes the problem beyond the nuclear data field, and provides insight to the problem regimes where it can occur. What follows is an understanding that the bias can show up for any experimental neutron time-of-flight data for which systematic uncertainties have been quantified. Lastly, a discussion of the adaptation of cross validation approaches that require pre-whitening to incorporate the known ‘fix’ to the PPP bias in the GLS estimator.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Weak baselines and reporting biases lead to overoptimism in machine learning for fluid-related partial differential equations

One of the most promising applications of machine learning in computational physics is to accelerate the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs). The key objective of machine-learning-based PDE solvers is to output a sufficiently accurate solution faster than standard numerical methods, which are used as a baseline comparison. Here, we first perform a systematic review of the ML-for-PDE-solving literature. Out of all of the articles that report using ML to solve a fluid-related PDE and claim to outperform a standard numerical method, we determine that 79% (60/76) make a comparison with a weak baseline. Second, we find evidence that reporting biases are widespread, especially outcome reporting and publication biases. We conclude that ML-for-PDE-solving research is overoptimistic: weak baselines lead to overly positive results, while reporting biases lead to under-reporting of negative results. To a large extent, these issues seem to be caused by factors similar to those of past reproducibility crises: researcher degrees of freedom and a bias towards positive results. We call for bottom-up cultural changes to minimize biased reporting as well as top-down structural reforms to reduce perverse incentives for doing so.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergence of exchange bias in van der Waals magnetic alloy CrxPt1−xTe2

Abstract Cr x Pt 1− x Te 2 is a recently developed van der Waals magnetic alloy noted for its stability under ambient conditions. Here, we report the emergence of an exchange bias effect in Cr x Pt 1− x Te 2 , without typical exchange bias sources such as an adjacent antiferromagnetic layer. We find that the exchange bias is present for x = 0.45 and absent for x = 0.35, which is correlated to the presence of a Cr modulation where the Cr concentration alternates each vdW layer (modulation period of 2 layers) for x ≥ 0.4. We perform Monte Carlo simulations utilizing exchange parameters from first-principles calculations, which recreate the exchange bias in hysteresis loops of Cr 0.45 Pt 0.55 Te 2 . From our simulations, we infer the source of exchange bias to be magnetic moments locked into free energy minima that resist magnetization reversal. This work presents a way to introduce desirable magnetic properties to van der Waals magnets.

Bailey-Crandell, Ryan↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robustness of pairwise kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect to optical-cluster-selection bias

The pairwise kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect measures both the pairwise motion between galaxy groups and clusters and the amount of gas within them, providing a tracer for cosmic growth. To interpret the cosmological information in the kSZ measurements, it is crucial to understand the optical-cluster-selection bias on the kSZ observables. Line-of-sight structures that contribute to both the optical observable (e.g., richness) and the cosmological signal can induce a correlation between these two quantities at a fixed cluster mass. The selection bias arising from this correlation is a key systematic effect for cosmological analyses. For cosmological observables such as cluster abundance and weak lensing, controlling this selection bias may help explain the tension between the DES-Y1 results and the Planck constraints. In order to test for a kSZ effect equivalent of such a bias, we adopted an alternative mock richness based on galaxy counts within cylindrical volumes along the line of sight. We applied the cylindrical count method to hydrodynamical simulations across a wide range of galaxy-selection criteria, assigning richness consistent with DES-Y1 to the mock clusters. When comparing optically selected clusters to mass-selected halos, we find no significant bias on pairwise kSZ signals, pairwise velocities, or optical depth within our uncertainty limits of approximately 16, 10, and 8%, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

General kinetic ion-induced electron emission model for metallic walls applied to biased Z-pinch electrodes

A kinetic ion-induced electron emission (IIEE) model for general applications is developed to obtain the emitted electron energy spectrum for a distribution of ion impacts on a metallic surface. We assume an ionization cascade mechanism and use empirical models for the ion and electron stopping powers. The emission spectrum and the secondary electron yield (SEY) are validated for a variety of materials. The IIEE model is used to study the effect of IIEE on the plasma-material interactions of Z-pinch electrodes. Un-magnetized Boltzmann-Poisson simulations are performed for a Z-pinch plasma doubly bounded by two biased copper electrodes with and without IIEE at bias potentials from 0 to 9 kV. At the anode, the SEY decreases from 0 to 1 kV, but then increases at higher bias potentials. At the cathode, the SEY is much larger due to higher energy ion bombardment and grows with bias potential. As the bias potential increases, the emitted cathode electrons are accelerated to higher energies into the domain, collisionally heating the plasma. Above 1 kV, the heating is strong enough to increase the plasma potential. Despite SEY greater than 1, only a classical sheath forms as opposed to a space-charge limited or inverse sheath due to the emitted electron flux not reaching the space charge current saturation limits. Furthermore, the current in the emissionless cases saturates to a value lower than experiment. With IIEE, the current does not saturate and continues to increase with the 4 kV case, matching most closely with the experiment.

Carbon based materials↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Biases in Global Monsoon Simulations from the Perspective of Atmospheric Energy Transport

Understanding global monsoon (GM) variability and projecting its future changes rely heavily on climate models. However, climate models generally show pronounced biases in GM simulations, and the reasons for this remain unclear. Here, in this study, we evaluate the performance of 20 pairs of climate models that participated in both phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and phase 6 of CMIP (CMIP6) and identify the sources of their GM simulation biases from an energy transport perspective. The multimodel mean improvement in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 is demonstrated by the increasing skill scores for various GM metrics from 0.20–0.79 to 0.48–0.83. More specifically, the dry biases in the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon (NHSM) precipitation in CMIP5 [root-mean-square error (RMSE): 1.85 mm day −1 ] are reduced in CMIP6 (RMSE: 1.66 mm day −1 ). This higher simulation skill is associated with higher skill in simulating the precipitation-solstitial mode, monsoon intensity, and monsoon domains. The improvement in the NHSM precipitation simulation results from that in the meridional transport of atmospheric energy. Atmospheric energy budget analysis shows that the negative biases in downward surface longwave radiation and northward energy transport are smaller in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 in the boreal summer, resulting in a more realistic interhemispheric thermal contrast and meridional gradient of moist static energy. However, a major weakness of the CMIP6 models is found in the Southern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon precipitation simulation due to the positive bias in the top-of-the-atmosphere downward longwave radiation. This study shows that reasonably reproducing the meridional global atmospheric energy transportation is necessary for skillful GM simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bias correcting regional scale Earth system model projections: novel approach using empirical mode decomposition

Bias correction is a crucial step in using Earth system model outputs for assessments, as it adjusts systematic errors by comparing the model to observations. However, standard methods – ranging from mean-based linear scaling to distribution-based quantile mapping typically treat bias correction as a single-scale process, overlooking the fact that biases can manifest differently across daily, seasonal, and annual timescales. In this study, we propose a novel, timescale-aware bias-correction approach built on Empirical Mode Decomposition. By decomposing the meteorological signal into multiple oscillatory components and aggregating them to represent distinct timescales, we apply targeted corrections to each component, thereby preserving both short- and long-term structure in the data. Experimental illustrations show that the timescale-aware EMDBC framework matches the performance of conventional quantile-delta mapping (QDM) at the native daily scale and achieves progressively larger bias reductions at bi-weekly, seasonal, and annual scales. As a result, the proposed approach offers a more robust path to accurate and reliable Earth system projections, strengthening their utility for resilience and adaptation planning.

Ganguli, Arkaprabha [Argonne National Laboratory (↗

NASA NTRS1982

An empirical determination of the effects of sea state bias on Seasat altimetry

A linear empirical model has been developed for the correction of sea state bias effects, in Seasat altimetry data altitude measurements, that are due to (1) electromagnetic bias caused by the fact that ocean wave troughs reflect the altimeter signal more strongly than the crests, shifting the apparent mean sea level toward the wave troughs, and (2) an independent instrument-related bias resulting from the inability of height corrections applied in the ground processor to compensate for simplifying assumptions made for the processor aboard Seasat. After applying appropriate corrections to the altimetry data, an empirical model for the sea state bias is obtained by differencing significant wave height and height measurements from coincident ground tracks. Height differences are minimized by solving for the coefficient of a linear relationship between height differences and wave height differences that minimize the height differences. In more than 50% of the 36 cases examined, 7% of the value of significant wave height should be subtracted for sea state bias correction.

Born, G. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Electromagnetic bias of 10-GHz radar altimeter measurements of MSL

Electromagnetic bias, the small difference that exists between the radar measured mean sea level and the geometric mean sea level is an important issue in high precision satellite altimetry. Present day satellite altimetry has achieved, with SEASAT-1, a precision of 5 cm rms in the range measurement. Future altimeter designs are expected to improve the range measurement precision to cm rms. In order to exploit the capability of these precise radar altimeters are marine geodesy and oceanography, it is necessary to understand and account for all of the known biases in the range measurement. The electromagnetic bias or the EM bias, which has been attributed to the observed fact that ocean wave troughs tend to be better reflectors of nadir viewing microwave radar energy than ocean wave crests, can be observed with high resolution airborne radar. This report presents the results of the EM bias measurements made by NRL using an airborne radar altimeter operating at 10 GHz with a 1 ns range resolution. Data were taken for various sea states and wind conditions. The experimental results are compared with current theories.

Choy, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Report of the Special Panel on statistical particle bias problems in laser anemometry

An account is given of the findings contained in a concensus document compiled by a group of experts on laser anemometry concerning statistical particle bias and its possible remedies. Emphasis is placed on the systematic character of this bias, rather than its magnitude. Since bias errors are a function of flow velocity and turbulence intensity, the measured results may contain apparent trends due solely to the measurement process. Attention is given to the panel's attempt to clear up terminological confusions in the matter of rates, scales, and magnitudes, as well as to its suggested processing methods for the elimination of velocity bias and the remedy of angle bias.

Edwards, Robert V.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A laboratory study of the electromagnetic bias of rough surface scattering by water waves

The design, development, and use of a focused-beam radar to measure the electromagnetic bias introduced by the scattering of radar waves by a roughened water surface are discussed. The bias measurements were made over wide ranges of environmental conditions in a wavetank laboratory. Wave-elevation data were provided by standard laboratory capacitance probes. Backscattered radar power measurements coincident in time and space with the elevation data were produced by the radar. The two data sets are histogrammed to produce probability density functions for elevation and radar reflectivity, from which the electromagnetic bias is computed. The experimental results demonstrate that the electromagnetic bias is quite variable over the wide range of environmental conditions that can be produced in the laboratory. The data suggest that the bias is dependent upon the local wind field and on the amplitude and frequency of any background wave field that is present.

Parsons, Chester L.↗