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DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Financial Impacts of Electric Vehicles on Utility Ratepayers and Shareholders [Slides]

Widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption is critical for meeting economy-wide decarbonization goals and, as a result, states are considering enabling policies and rate designs to accelerate EV deployment. EVs can provide possible financial upside to electric utilities and ratepayers in several ways. For example, from the utility perspective, EVs could drive increased electricity sales and new earnings opportunities through increased capital investments. From the ratepayer perspective, increased electric loads from EVs could reduce average all-in retail rates. The degree to which there are net benefits or costs to shareholders and/or ratepayers depends on how EVs are integrated and managed through enabling grid investments and charging strategies. Using Berkeley Lab’s Financial Impacts of Distributed Energy Resources (FINDER) model that mimics the electric utility investment planning and ratemaking processes, we estimate the utility earnings and customer rate impacts of EVs using a bookend approach of “managed” (i.e., best case) and “mismanaged” (i.e., worst case) charging strategies for a generic summer-peaking, investor-owned, and vertically integrated utility. The analysis also examines the sensitivity of results to different assumptions of EV deployment characteristics, EV impacts on retail electricity sales, incremental distribution system costs, EV charging location, and utility EV enablement costs (i.e., utility costs to invest in EV charging, controls, and communication to deliver and administer EV programs). The results are intended to inform EV policies and deployment strategies that maximize utility system benefits and minimize ratepayer costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Queued Up: Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2022 [Slides]

Proposed large-scale electric generation and storage projects must apply for interconnection to the bulk power system via interconnection queues. While most projects that apply for interconnection are not subsequently built, data from these queues nonetheless provide a general indicator for mid-term trends in developer interest. Berkeley Lab compiled and analyzed data from all seven ISOs/RTOs in concert with 35 non-ISO utilities, representing an estimated 85% of all U.S. electricity load. We include all "active" projects in these generation interconnection queues through the end of 2022, as well as data on "operational" and "withdrawn" projects where those data are available. We find that the amount of new electric capacity in these queues is growing dramatically, with over 2,000 gigawatts (GW) of total generation and storage capacity now seeking connection to the grid (over 95% of which is for zero-carbon resources like solar, wind, and battery storage). Solar (947 GW) and battery storage (~680 GW) are – by far – the fastest growing resources in the queues; combined they accounted for over 80% of new capacity entering the queues in 2022. Substantial wind (300 GW) capacity is also seeking interconnection, 38% of which is for offshore projects (113 GW). In total, about 1,250 GW of zero-carbon generating capacity is currently seeking transmission access, as is 82 GW of natural gas capacity. Hybrids projects (co-locating multiple generation and/or storage types) comprise a large – and increasing – share of proposed projects, particularly in CAISO and the non-ISO West. 457 GW of solar hybrids (primarily solar+battery) and 24 GW of wind hybrids are currently active in the queues; over half of battery storage in the queues is paired with generation. However, much of this proposed capacity will be withdrawn from the queues and not built. Among a subset of queues for which data are available, only 21% of the projects (and 14% of capacity) seeking connection from 2000 to 2017 have been built as of the end of 2022. Additionally, interconnection wait times are on the rise: The typical duration from connection request to commercial operation increased from <2 years for projects built in 2000-2007 to nearly 4 years for those built in 2018-2022 (with a median of 5 years for projects built in 2022).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a molecularly informed biogeochemical framework for reactive transport modeling of subsurface carbon inventories, transformations and fluxes (Final Report)

The overall objective of the project was to combine new molecular-level characterization strategies with soil carbon flux measurements to develop and evaluate model representations of subsurface carbon cycling. We expanded on existing studies in the East River watershed, Colorado, in collaboration with the Berkeley Lab Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA), SLAC Groundwater Quality SFA, and Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) to develop an elevation and vegetation gradient that is now the subject of long-term monitoring by the USGS. To achieve the overall objective, we combined field studies of soil respiration with laboratory analyses, ranging from spectroscopy to incubation studies. This combination of techniques enabled us to develop a new understanding of the drivers of high-elevation soil respiration. In the process, we developed three new modeling approaches that improve our ability to conceptualize and ultimately to represent soil respiration in numerical models. The first approach is a plot-scale transient inverse model that can be used to determine in situ CO 2 production rates from measured concentration profiles and surface fluxes. Application of this method revealed the importance of plant phenology and deep CO 2 production in moderating CO 2 fluxes to the atmosphere. The second modeling approach is a molecular-scale tool that enables spectroscopic and elemental data for carbon speciation to be transformed into functional group abundances, or the ‘SOC-fga model’. This method uniquely enables carbon speciation to be tracked within a reactive transport framework to partition carbon among different pathways and storage zones within the soil. The third modeling tool builds strongly on the previous approaches and captures the microbial processes driving heterotrophic respiration. This ‘dormancy model’ allows the native soil microbial population to respond transiently to the presence or absence of water in order to catalyze carbon respiration. This approach was also compared to the simpler and more widely used first-order model using two experimental datasets with different temporal and spatial resolutions. Our results illustrate that the simpler first order model provides a robust and efficient representation of deep (>1 meter) soil respiration, but that shallow soils, where most respiration occurs, require explicit representation of moisture-dependent activation and dormancy rates. By assessing soil organic carbon turnover at multiple scales, we see a complex array of controls emerge. Atte scale of a hillslope, spatial heterogeneity in soil respiration rates dominates and is uncorrelated with instantaneous soil moisture and plant community. At the profile scale, the balance between plant inputs and water availability is the dominant control. At the microbial to molecular scale, physiological processes associated with carbon use and carbon speciation are important controls. These scale-dependent controls emphasize the need for new modeling approaches that examine their interactions and hierarchies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Snapshot of EV-Specific Rate Designs Among U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities

EV-specific electric utility rates have a profound effect on the underlying economics motivating EV adoption. State utility regulators and electric utilities play a critical role in approving and designing rates, respectively. However, the nascence of the EV industry has resulted in regulators’ and utilities’ having very limited experience with EV-specific rate designs. This suggests there could be substantial benefit from efforts intended to provide a better understanding of how EV-specific rates are designed presently in the United States. To meet that need, Berkeley Lab researchers, with support from E9 Insight, developed a database of piloted, proposed, and offered rates among U.S. investor-owned utilities (IOUs) between 2012 and 2022. The database is comprised of 217 electric utility retail rates from IOUs in 38 states and the District of Columbia that either required proof of EV ownership or were otherwise designed for the purposes of reselling energy for use in EV charging (i.e., EV-specific rates). The analysis of the database identifies the EV-specific rate designs currently observed, infers a number of policy-driven objectives, and suggests a number of next steps for future research.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interconnection Cost Analysis in ISO-New England

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require new large generators seeking to connect to the grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. Berkeley Lab has collected interconnection cost data for 194 projects in New England from interconnection studies performed between 2010 and 2021. Project-level cost summary data are available for download on this page. We find: -Interconnection costs have grown over time, especially for projects that withdraw. -Interconnection costs are highest for onshore wind, followed by solar and storage. Natural gas and offshore wind projects tend to cost less to interconnect, in comparison. -Economies of scale exist for solar and possibly storage projects, but not for other resource types. -Wind and solar projects requesting capacity network resource interconnection service have higher interconnection costs, despite being evaluated using the same interconnection standard in the analyzed studies. -Low and high interconnection costs can be found throughout the ISO-NE footprint. -Costs are split fairly evenly between investments at the point of interconnection and within the broader network for active and withdrawn projects, while complete projects incur most costs at the point of interconnection.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Community Centered Solar Development (CCSD) Case Study Interviews [Slides]

Large-scale solar (LSS, defined here as ground-mounted photovoltaic projects ≥1 MWDC) has grown rapidly in the U.S., accounting for nearly half of new electric generating capacity added to the U.S. grid in 2022. All sources of electricity bring positive and negative impacts to hosting communities and the rapid growth of LSS has increased the urgency to understand those impacts. Yet, information about the potential positive and negative impacts of LSS on host communities, and the factors or drivers leading to support or opposition to a project, is lacking. This information gap limits how project developers, municipalities, and local siting authorities can address community concerns and appropriately align proposed projects to best suit and benefit local communities. As part of Berkeley Lab’s Community-Centered Solar Development (CCSD) project, this research set out to explore deep insights and perceptions from LSS stakeholders that only qualitative data can provide to identify key factors driving project success or threatened failure. Case studies, such as those utilized in this research, are uniquely adept at capturing the subjective experience of individuals and at identifying variables, structures, and interactions between stakeholders. Our case studies included 54 semi-structured interviews across 7 different LSS sites, representing a diversity of geographies, project sizes (MW), site types (i.e., greenfield, agrivoltaic, and brownfield / contaminated sites), zoning jurisdiction types, and more (Table 1). In addition to local residents living in close proximity to these LSS sites, we interviewed other key stakeholders involved in the projects such as developers, decision-makers, utility representatives, landowners, and individuals from community-based organizations. The overarching aim of this case study research was two-fold: (1) to inform subsequent tasks in the CCSD research project (including an upcoming national survey of LSS neighbors), and (2) to provide insights into the following set of research questions: -What are the key positive and negative drivers leading to support and opposition to LSS projects? -To what extent do LSS projects exacerbate or mitigate perceived inequities and marginalization within hosting communities and how can those inequities be mitigated going forward? -What strategies can communities employ to align LSS development with local land-use plans and community needs and values? The research findings and next steps are described in this slide deck report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing an Equity Framework for State Regulatory Decision-Making

The report presents a framework for states that seek to incorporate equity into regulatory decision-making. Berkeley Lab contextualizes approaches and metrics from various states into example processes to exemplify how this may be done, including topics such as the development of equity goals and definitions, intervenor funding, community engagement, performance-based ratemaking, and utility resource planning. The report offers five takeaways and considerations, supported by these examples: 1. Equity comprises multiple tenets and stages, all of which must be considered in parallel. 2. At the start of designing new equity-related processes, it is critical to establish clear and actionable goals, definitions, roles, and responsibilities to ensure progress. 3. Once goals are established, it is critical to align tools and metrics that bridge the gap between what an intervention may do and how it may impact communities and households. 4. Processes should be stakeholder driven. It is important to not only increase education and outreach, but to actively seek out and incorporate feedback from inclusive public processes and build in accountability mechanisms. Processes should be iterative. Feedback loops between evaluations and program design provide the flexibility to better align existing interventions with community priorities and to incorporate equity into future decision-making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distribution Grid Impacts of Community Solar [Slides]

Community solar (CS) projects often face uncertain interconnection costs and fees associated with distribution grid infrastructure upgrades required to connect the project. These costs can determine the economic viability of a CS project, but they are difficult to assess. Cost uncertainty can discourage new projects and prevent communities from accessing the benefits of community solar projects. At the same time, CS deployment strategies hold potential to defer or avoid some distribution costs due to new loads. To mitigate CS interconnection costs, it is important to find least-cost combinations of distribution system infrastructure solutions (transformer upgrades, reconductoring, voltage regulators, storage), and to understand how location of CS projects within a feeder impact distribution grid upgrade costs. This study aims to quantify CS impacts on the distribution grid and provide policy and regulatory insights and CS deployment strategies to address them. It is the first analysis that has systematically studied the technical impacts of community solar projects on a wide range of distribution feeders using state-of-the-art optimization and power flow tools. The analysis employs Berkeley Lab’s novel Least-cost Optimal Distribution Grid Expansion (LODGE) model, a deterministic version of the REPAIR model, that optimally upgrades hundreds or even thousands of distribution circuits or feeders. This is the first application of the LODGE model. LODGE finds the least-cost portfolio of traditional distribution system upgrades to integrate CS in combination with alternative solutions, such as utility-owned storage and downsizing CS capacity. Working with a set of least-cost solutions per feeder allows us to benchmark, compare and find techno-economic trends in CS interconnection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

State Energy Offices’ Engagement in Electric Distribution Planning to Meet State Policy Goals

NASEO and Berkeley Lab released a new publication on State Energy Offices’ Engagement in Electric Distribution Planning to Meet State Policy Goals. State and Territory Energy Offices develop plans, programs, policies, and projects that have a substantial impact on electric distribution systems. They also can participate in distribution system planning (DSP) processes to help ensure that utilities – consumer- and investor-owned – meet the state’s future energy needs. This paper recognizes the wide spectrum of roles that State Energy Offices can play in DSP processes, including planning for distributed energy resources and grid modernization. It highlights various examples of non-regulatory activities by State Energy Offices including planning, conducting studies, convening stakeholder processes, and implementing programs that inform and contribute to distribution system planning. It also provides examples of State Energy Offices’ engagement in proceedings before their respective public utility commissions. As State Energy Offices face myriad challenges associated with meeting state policy goals, preparing for anticipated rates of distributed energy resource deployment, addressing concerns regarding grid reliability and resilience, and recommending and making long-term investment decisions, the examples provided through this guide can serve as a resource in navigating those challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Value of Sharing and Consolidating Critical Community, Electricity, and Natural Hazard Information

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) sought support for the development of database schema specifications for a bi-directional data portal that would foster cross-jurisdictional collaboration necessary to improve resilient energy infrastructure planning processes. This technical assistance activity involved Berkeley Lab researchers reviewing 34 local/tribal government hazard mitigation plans to assess (1) the natural hazards that communities are most concerned about; (2) the variety of–and terminology used to describe–critical community infrastructure; and (3) the availability of GIS information that could be incorporated into CPUC-mandated "Microgrid Planning Portals". In addition, we develop a common, but generic data taxonomy showing what fields to collect to encourage consolidating and sharing of this information in the future. Finally, we partnered with the Bishop Paiute tribal government to demonstrate the value of combining electricity infrastructure, natural hazard layers, and critical community infrastructure into a series of maps. The project demonstrated that a single system containing both electric utility and community infrastructure data—as well as information about natural hazards—will help the state of California, the IOUs, first responders, and long-term planners better prepare for—and thus lower their exposure to these ongoing and emerging hazards. The project also identified a number of challenges that will need to be overcome before it is possible to stand up a single system to display this information.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Survey of Utility-Scale Wind and Solar Developers Report [Slides]

In 2023, Berkeley Lab conducted the first of its kind survey of industry professionals with direct experience working in community engagement and permitting of land-based, utility-scale wind and solar energy facilities in the U.S. The survey solicited information about project timelines over the last five years, leading causes of project delays and cancelations, community opposition, experience with permitting authorities, community engagement, comparisons between wind and solar, and other related topics. A total of 123 individuals responded to the survey for a response rate of 19.2%. Respondents were employed at 62 unique companies, which together are responsible for approximately half of the wind and solar developed from 2016 to 2023.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Perceptions of Large-Scale Solar Project Neighbors: Results From a National Survey [Slides]

Driven by favorable economics, policy factors, and decarbonization goals, large-scale solar (LSS, defined here as ground-mounted photovoltaic projects ≥1 MWDC) has expanded rapidly in recent years, with more than 90 gigawatts (GW) now installed across the United States. Growth in LSS deployment is anticipated to accelerate in response to growing electricity demand and utility, state, and federal decarbonization goals. This continued expansion hinges, in part, on the continued support of local residents and decision-makers in communities hosting LSS projects. Understanding the perceptions and attitudes of existing LSS neighbors is critical to inform and enable future LSS deployment, and to improve outcomes for those host communities. As of 2022, there were more than 10 million U.S. homes within 3 miles of LSS plants. Yet, until recently, no comprehensive study had examined the experiences and perceptions of these LSS neighbors. In 2023, a Berkeley Lab team worked with the University of Michigan and Michigan State University to conduct the first-of-its-kind nationally representative survey of LSS neighbors as part of the Community-Centered Solar Development research project. The survey effort ultimately collected 984 responses from residents within 3 miles of existing LSS projects. The survey results are available for download via the full summary analysis slide deck report, as well as a shorter (~4 page) summary brief. The survey instrument (questionnaire) is also available for download for those interested in understanding the survey design or replicating questions in future research.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Wholesale Energy Price Trends: The Renewables and Wholesale Electricity Prices (ReWEP) tool (Ver. 2024.1)

The Renewables and Wholesale Electricity Prices (ReWEP) visualization tool from Berkeley Lab has been updated with nodal electricity pricing and wind and solar generation data through the end of 2023. ReWEP users can explore trends in wholesale electricity prices and their relationship to wind and solar generation. ReWEP includes nodal pricing trends across locations, regions, and different timeframes. The tool consists of maps, time series, and other interactive figures that provide: (1) a general overview of how average pricing, negative price frequency, and extreme high prices vary over time, and (2) a summary of how pricing patterns are related to wind and solar generation. Interactive functionality allows investigation by year, season, time of day, and region, where region is defined as the Independent System Operators (ISO) or Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO) region. ReWEP also contains prices throughout much of the western United States from the Western Energy Imbalance Market and the Western Energy Imbalance Service Market.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Wholesale Energy Price Trends: The Renewables and Wholesale Electricity Prices (ReWEP) tool (Ver. 2024.1)

The Renewables and Wholesale Electricity Prices (ReWEP) visualization tool from Berkeley Lab has been updated with nodal electricity pricing and wind and solar generation data through the end of 2023. ReWEP users can explore trends in wholesale electricity prices and their relationship to wind and solar generation. ReWEP includes nodal pricing trends across locations, regions, and different timeframes. The tool consists of maps, time series, and other interactive figures that provide: (1) a general overview of how average pricing, negative price frequency, and extreme high prices vary over time, and (2) a summary of how pricing patterns are related to wind and solar generation. Interactive functionality allows investigation by year, season, time of day, and region, where region is defined as the Independent System Operators (ISO) or Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO) region. ReWEP also contains prices throughout much of the western United States from the Western Energy Imbalance Market and the Western Energy Imbalance Service Market.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstrating Load-Shaping Capabilities of Cost Minimizing Heat Pump Water Heater Controls with Varying Price Profiles

Increased penetration of photovoltaics and electrification of traditionally gas appliances are exacerbating existing challenges in cost-effectively balancing electricity grid supply and demand. Decarbonization without incurring expensive transmission and distribution system capacity increases requires shifting building loads from peak demand times to peak renewable production times. Grid operators are evaluating new ways of encouraging load shifting, including using time-varying price structures to provide a financial incentive. If devices incorporate price-responsive controls, a price profile could be designed to yield a wide variety of load curves as needed to optimize grid functionality. Heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) are an ideal device for price-responsive controls because the storage tank enables them to optimize the timing of electricity consumption without impacting hot water delivery service. This paper presents work demonstrating how price-responsive controls for HPWHs can provide different load profiles, as needed to stabilize the grid, in response to different price profiles. HPWH manufacturers now include web API and CTA-2045 communication capabilities which enable sending load shaping control signals. Pilot studies and preliminary programs have utilized these capabilities with uniform control strategies to reduce 4-9 PM electricity consumption. However, no studies have developed flexible controls capable of both a) responding to constantly varying price profiles and b) customizing logic to match the needs of each HPWH. Berkeley Lab's CalFlexHub project is pioneering price-driven load flexibility by developing and deploying cost-minimizing controls utilizing setpoint setting signals for fleets of HPWHs in response to varying price profiles. Control development is based on simulations using the Flexible Heat Pump Water Heater Performance Predictor which captures the control decisions of a residential, integrated HPWH manufacturer’s on-board controller. The proposed cost-reducing controls respond to constantly changing price profiles, providing the ability to change the price profile to generate load curves as needed to maintain grid stability. Preliminary simulations studying the load shaping capabilities of price-responsive controls on a fleet of 60 HPWHs have demonstrated an average of a) 135.4% increases in load during low-price periods, b) >36.8% reductions in electricity peak-price period, and c) 6.2% electricity cost savings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

One Year In: Tracking the Impacts of NEM 3.0 on California’s Residential Solar Market

On December 15, 2022, the California Public Utilities Commission passed an overhaul of the net metering program for the state’s investor-owned utilities. The changes replaced the long-standing net energy metering (NEM) tariffs with a net billing tariff (NBT) structure—colloquially known as “NEM 3.0”—which significantly reduces the compensation for behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. The NEM tariffs remained open for new interconnection applications until April 15, 2023, but after that date, all new interconnection applications were submitted under NBT. Now, one year later, we have an opportunity to evaluate how the California solar market has evolved under this new compensation regime. As a precursor to its annual Tracking the Sun report, Berkeley Lab has released a short technical brief describing key trends in the California residential solar market since the roll-out of the new NBT structure. The purpose of this analysis is to provide empirical insights into how the market has evolved over the past year, confirming some expectations while also revealing several striking surprises.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Income Verification Strategies for Income-Based Solar Programs

The Inflation Reduction Act has created substantial new programs that support adoption of solar power by low-income households, including the $7 billion Solar For All program and the Low-Income Communities Bonus Credit Program, which increases the investment tax credit for certain types of deployment. In addition, a growing number of states are using solar programs to reduce energy burdens and create energy justice opportunities for low-income households and disadvantaged communities. Verifying the income of participating customers is an important component of these programs. Program managers are seeking strategies to verify a large number of subscribing customers in an accurate, timely, and cost-efficient manner. To help inform program managers, Berkeley Lab investigated how a number of energy and non-energy programs manage income verification. The most common approach is to require proof through tax documents, pay stubs, or other formal income documentation, which can pose an impediment to enrolling eligible customers and create a paperwork burden for administrators. In order to reduce the burden for both the applicant and the program manager, some programs use alternative methods. We identify three common alternative verification methods: -Categorical eligibility: Customers enrolled in other, similar income-verified assistance programs are automatically eligible for enrollment in other income-qualified programs. -Geographic eligibility: Eligibility is based on the customer’s location within a specified area, typically a low-income or disadvantaged community or census tract, and; -“Self-attestation”: The participant claims eligibility with or without further documentation. We describe these options, their pros and cons, give examples of how they are used, and explore how some low-income programs address administrative issues, audits, or other quality control measures. Finally, we explore the risk of mistaken verifications (finding a participant eligible when they are not) in the different strategies. While this memo was initiated by a request relating to income-based community solar programs, the methods are applicable to any program with income eligibility requirements in the energy or non-energy sector. Funding was provided for this research by the Solar Energy Technologies Office of the US Department of Energy, through the National Community Solar Partnership.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗