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Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying reliable surrogate models in scientific applications. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) frameworks employ ensembles or Bayesian methods, which can incur substantial computational costs during both training and inference. Here, we propose a lightweight predictive UQ method tailored for Deep operator networks (DeepONets) that also generalizes to other operator networks. Numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear PDEs demonstrate that the framework’s uncertainty estimates are unbiased and provide accurate out-of-distribution uncertainty predictions with a sufficiently large training dataset. Our framework provides fast inference and uncertainty estimates that can efficiently drive outer-loop analyses that would be prohibitively expensive with conventional solvers. We demonstrate how predictive uncertainties can be used in the context of Bayesian optimization and active learning problems to yield improvements in accuracy and data-efficiency for outer-loop optimization procedures. In the active learning setup, we extend the framework to Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) and describe a generalized method for other operator networks. To enable real-time deployment, we introduce an inference strategy based on precomputed trunk outputs and a sparse placement matrix, reducing evaluation time by more than a factor of five. Our method provides a practical route to uncertainty-aware operator learning in time-sensitive settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian Super-Resolved Surface Reconstruction From Multiple Images

Bayesian inference has been wed successfully for many problems where the aim is to infer the parameters of a model of interest. In this paper we formulate the three dimensional reconstruction problem as the problem of inferring the parameters of a surface model from image data, and show how Bayesian methods can be used to estimate the parameters of this model given the image data. Thus we recover the three dimensional description of the scene. This approach also gives great flexibility. We can specify the geometrical properties of the model to suit our purpose, and can also use different models for how the surface reflects the light incident upon it. In common with other Bayesian inference problems, the estimation methodology requires that we can simulate the data that would have been recoded for any values of the model parameters. In this application this means that if we have image data we must be able to render the surface model. However it also means that we can infer the parameters of a model whose resolution can be chosen irrespective of the resolution of the images, and may be super-resolved. We present results of the inference of surface models from simulated aerial photographs for the case of super-resolution, where many surface elements project into a single pixel in the low-resolution images.

Smelyanskiy, V. N.↗

Gauge R & R studies for angular measurements

Angular measurements lie on the circumference of a circle and have different characteristics than standard scalar measurements. For applications involving angular data, treating the measured values as scalars can lead to misinterpretation of results if its wrap-around nature is not taken into account. In this article, we propose a variance components wrapped normal model for angular measurements that is analogous to the standard normal model for continuous measurements. This model allows decomposition of contributions to the overall variance to be separated and compared to understand the drivers of the spread of the data. In this work, we analyze gauge R & R study data using Bayesian methods and illustrate the use of this wrapped normal model with simulated and real data. We also performed a small simulation study in considering the design of gauge R & R studies with angular measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS): The AGN catalog and its X-ray spectral properties

The eROSITA Final Equatorial Depth Survey (eFEDS), observed with eROSITA ahead of its planned 4-yr all-sky survey, is the largest contiguous-field X-ray survey at present. It yielded a large sample of X-ray sources with very rich multiband photometric and spectroscopic coverage. We present here the eFEDS active galactic nuclei (AGN) catalog and the eROSITA X-ray spectral properties of the eFEDS sources. Using a Bayesian method, we performed a systematic X-ray spectral analysis for all the eFEDS sources. We adopted multiple spectral models, including single-component power-law or hot-plasma models and double-component models of a power law plus soft excess. We investigated the capacity of eROSITA X-ray spectra for constraining AGN spectral shapes through a detailed analysis of the posterior parameter probability distribution functions. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling was used to recover the spectral parameter distribution of the sample. The source fluxes and luminosities were measured from the posterior of the spectral fitting. The eFEDS AGN catalog (22 079 sources) comprises ~80% of the eFEDS point sources. Despite a large number of faint sources, our spectral fitting provides reasonable measurements of spectral shapes and intrinsic luminosities for a majority of the sources. Because of sample selection bias, this AGN catalog is dominated by X-ray unobscured sources, with an obscured (logN H > 21.5) fraction of 8%; the power-law emission of the hot corona is also relatively soft, with a typical slope of 2.0. For type-I AGN, the X-ray emission is well correlated with the UV emission with the usual anticorrelation between the X-ray to UV spectral slope α OX and the UV luminosity. The X-ray spectral properties measured with various models are presented for all the eFEDS sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Tracking Object Existence From an Autonomous Patrol Vehicle

An autonomous vehicle patrols a large region, during which an algorithm receives measurements of detected potential objects within its sensor range. The goal of the algorithm is to track all objects in the region over time. This problem differs from traditional multi-target tracking scenarios because the region of interest is much larger than the sensor range and relies on the movement of the sensor through this region for coverage. The goal is to know whether anything has changed between visits to the same location. In particular, two kinds of alert conditions must be detected: (1) a previously detected object has disappeared and (2) a new object has appeared in a location already checked. For the time an object is within sensor range, the object can be assumed to remain stationary, changing position only between visits. The problem is difficult because the upstream object detection processing is likely to make many errors, resulting in heavy clutter (false positives) and missed detections (false negatives), and because only noisy, bearings-only measurements are available. This work has three main goals: (1) Associate incoming measurements with known objects or mark them as new objects or false positives, as appropriate. For this, a multiple hypothesis tracker was adapted to this scenario. (2) Localize the objects using multiple bearings-only measurements to provide estimates of global position (e.g., latitude and longitude). A nonlinear Kalman filter extension provides these 2D position estimates using the 1D measurements. (3) Calculate the probability that a suspected object truly exists (in the estimated position), and determine whether alert conditions have been triggered (for new objects or disappeared objects). The concept of a probability of existence was created, and a new Bayesian method for updating this probability at each time step was developed. A probabilistic multiple hypothesis approach is chosen because of its superiority in handling the uncertainty arising from errors in sensors and upstream processes. However, traditional target tracking methods typically assume a stationary detection volume of interest, whereas in this case, one must make adjustments for being able to see only a small portion of the region of interest and understand when an alert situation has occurred. To track object existence inside and outside the vehicle's sensor range, a probability of existence was defined for each hypothesized object, and this value was updated at every time step in a Bayesian manner based on expected characteristics of the sensor and object and whether that object has been detected in the most recent time step. Then, this value feeds into a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) to determine the status of the object (suspected, confirmed, or deleted). Alerts are sent upon selected status transitions. Additionally, in order to track objects that move in and out of sensor range and update the probability of existence appropriately a variable probability detection has been defined and the hypothesis probability equations have been re-derived to accommodate this change. Unsupervised object tracking is a pervasive issue in automated perception systems. This work could apply to any mobile platform (ground vehicle, sea vessel, air vehicle, or orbiter) that intermittently revisits regions of interest and needs to determine whether anything interesting has changed.

Wolf, Michael↗

Inferring the spatial and energy distribution of gamma-ray burst sources. 1: Methodology

We describe Bayesian methods for analyzing the distribution of gamma-ray burst peak photon fluxes and directions. These methods fit the differential distribution, and have the following advantages over rival methods: (1) they do not destroy information by binning or averaging the data (as do, say, chi squared, the averaged value of V/V(sub max), and angular moment analyses); (2) they straightforwardly handle uncertainties in the measured quantities; (3) they analyze the strength and direction information jointly; (4) they use information available about nondetections; and (5) they automatically identify and account for biases and selection effects given a precise description of the experiment. In these methods, the most important information needed about the instrument threshold is not its value at the times of burst triggers, as is used in the average value of V/V(sub max) analyses, but rather the value of the threshold at times when no trigger occurred. We show that this information can be summarized as an average detection efficiency that is similar to the product of the exposure and efficiency reported in the First Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) Burst (1B) Catalog, but significantly different from it at low fluxes. We also quantify an important bias that results from estimating the peak flux by scanning the burst to find the peak number of counts in a window of specified duration, as was done for the 1B Catalog. When the duration of the peak of the light curve is longer than the window duration, a simple flux estimate based on the peak counts significantly overestimates the peak flux in a nonlinear fashion that distorts the shape of the log(N)-log(P) distribution. This distortion also corrupts analyses of the V/V(sub max) distribution that use ratios of counts above background to estimate V/V(sub max). The Bayesian calculation specifies how to account for this bias. Implementation of the Bayesian approach requires some changes in the way burst data are reported that we describe in detail. Subsequent papers will report analyses of the 1B Catalog data using the methods described here.

Loredo, Thomas J.↗

Exoplanet Biosignatures: Future Directions

We introduce a Bayesian method for guiding future directions for detection of life on exoplanets. We describe empirical and theoretical work necessary to place constraints on the relevant likelihoods, including those emerging from better understanding stellar environment, planetary climate and geophysics, geochemical cycling, the universalities of physics and chemistry, the contingencies of evolutionary history, the properties of life as an emergent complex system, and the mechanisms driving the emergence of life. We provide examples for how the Bayesian formalism could guide future search strategies, including determining observations to prioritize or deciding between targeted searches or larger lower resolution surveys to generate ensemble statistics and address how a Bayesian methodology could constrain the prior probability of life with or without a positive detection.

Bayesian analysis↗

Deeply uncertain: comparing methods of uncertainty quantification in deep learning algorithms

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN), Concrete Dropout (CD), and Deep Ensembles (DE) - are compared to the standard analytic error propagation. We discuss this comparison in terms endemic to both machine learning ("epistemic" and "aleatoric") and the physical sciences ("statistical" and "systematic"). The comparisons are presented in terms of simulated experimental measurements of a single pendulum - a prototypical physical system for studying measurement and analysis techniques. Our results highlight some pitfalls that may occur when using these UQ methods. For example, when the variation of noise in the training set is small, all methods predicted the same relative uncertainty independently of the inputs. This issue is particularly hard to avoid in BNN. On the other hand, when the test set contains samples far from the training distribution, we found that no methods sufficiently increased the uncertainties associated to their predictions. This problem was particularly clear for CD. In light of these results, we make some recommendations for usage and interpretation of UQ methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A case study: Comparing testers for means and variances in a balanced incomplete block design

In this article, we present a gauge R & R study that is different from the standard setup in several ways. A balanced incomplete block design (BIBD) was used to collect the data because the measurement is destructive. Besides addressing reproducibility, differences in repeatability (i.e., tester variances) were also of interest. Here we use Bayesian methods to analyze the study data to address whether the three tester means and variances are similar. We also consider what happens if the BIBD structure of the data and possibly different tester variances are ignored in analyzing the study data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi-scale Simulation, Calibration, and Optimization of Calcium Carbonate Precipitation in Microbial Communities

Ensuring the efficient engineering of microbially induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP) is crucial for a variety of environmental and civil engineering applications, such as soil stabilization and carbon sequestration. Addressing this need, we present a comprehensive multi-scale workflow that begins with the isolation of calcium carbonate-producing microbes from soil samples, followed by metagenomic sequencing and metabolic reconstruction. We then characterize microbial growth phenotypes under diverse nutrient conditions, compare observed growth with metabolic model predictions, and apply the Consistent Reproduction of Phenotype (CROP) algorithm to refine these models. Furthermore, we analyze metabolite consumption and production, and develop a consumer-resource model that is calibrated using time-series measurements of growth rates, pH levels, and calcium carbonate precipitation. The primary benefit of our approach lies in its ability to predict and control MICP outcomes, facilitated by a Bayesian methodology that incorporates priors on initial conditions and parameters. This allows us to compute posteriors by integrating experimental data, and to solve a risk optimization problem under uncertainty to identify nutrient conditions that maximize calcium carbonate production. In contrast to non-Bayesian methods, which fail to quantify uncertainty accurately, our approach provides a more reliable pathway to optimizing nutrient conditions, enhancing the likelihood of achieving desired MICP outcomes. This positions our method as a superior alternative in the quest to improve MICP through engineered microbial consortia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forecasting Multi-Wave Epidemics Through Bayesian Inference

We present a simple, near-real-time Bayesian method to infer and forecast a multiwave outbreak, and demonstrate it on the COVID-19 pandemic. The approach uses timely epidemiological data that has been widely available for COVID-19. It provides short-term forecasts of the outbreak’s evolution, which can then be used for medical resource planning. The method postulates one- and multiwave infection models, which are convolved with the incubation-period distribution to yield competing disease models. The disease models’ parameters are estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and information-theoretic criteria are used to select between them for use in forecasting. The method is demonstrated on two- and three-wave COVID-19 outbreaks in California, New Mexico and Florida, as observed during Summer-Winter 2020. We find that the method is robust to noise, provides useful forecasts (along with uncertainty bounds) and that it reliably detected when the initial single-wave COVID-19 outbreaks transformed into successive surges as containment efforts in these states failed by the end of Spring 2020.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian inferences of electrical current delivered to shocked transmission lines

Small radius Bdot measurements of electrical current delivered by pulsed power devices are routinely compromised by electrode/convolute plasmas endemic to multiterawatt transmission lines. Inferences of delivered current unaffected by these issues have recently been obtained by numerically optimizing consistency between model predictions and local experimental velocimetry data, but these are only unique for shockless velocity profiles. In the paper we describe a more general Bayesian method capable of inferring current despite the presence of shocks. Additionally, we describe uncertainty estimates and use of the technique on experimental data. This technique is the first to provide uncertainty estimates on the full current trace delivered to an inertial confinement fusion target.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Unsupervised machine learning discovery of structural units and transformation pathways from imaging data

We show that unsupervised machine learning can be used to learn chemical transformation pathways from observational Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (STEM) data. To enable this analysis, we assumed the existence of atoms, a discreteness of atomic classes, and the presence of an explicit relationship between the observed STEM contrast and the presence of atomic units. With only these postulates, we developed a machine learning method leveraging a rotationally invariant variational autoencoder (VAE) that can identify the existing molecular fragments observed within a material. The approach encodes the information contained in STEM image sequences using a small number of latent variables, allowing the exploration of chemical transformation pathways by tracing the evolution of atoms in the latent space of the system. The results suggest that atomically resolved STEM data can be used to derive fundamental physical and chemical mechanisms involved, by providing encodings of the observed structures that act as bottom-up equivalents of structural order parameters. The approach also demonstrates the potential of variational (i.e., Bayesian) methods in the physical sciences and will stimulate the development of more sophisticated ways to encode physical constraints in the encoder–decoder architectures and generative physical laws and causal relationships in the latent space of VAEs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A novel framework for increasing research transparency: Exploring the connection between diversity and innovation

A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics fromde novoestimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Gaussian Process Regression Method for Costing SmallSat Bus Capabilities

NASA is responding to the growing interest in, andcapabilities of, small satellites for science applications with an increasingnumber and frequency of Announcements of Opportunityfor small satellite space missions. Estimating the probabilitythat these mission concepts will fit within the small cost capsof these opportunities is largely driven by the probability thatone of the burgeoning number of small satellite providers will beable to meet the payload’s accommodation requirements withinthe budget for the spacecraft. JPL has collected a databasecontaining technical specifications and cost of commerciallyavailable Smallsat buses across various vendors. The primarypurpose of the database is for use in JPL’s Team X architecturestudies to inform cost estimates of a spacecraft bus which fitsthe customer’s technical requirements for their payload andmission. Customer needs are often unique and don’t alignperfectly with an off-the-shelf commercial spacecraft bus, whichmotivates the need to develop a cost model across the continuoustechnical parameter space.Al’s Bus Cost Distribution Estimator (ABCDE) uses Gaussianprocess regression (GPR) to predict commercial Smallsat spacecraftbus cost based on a subset of a customer’s technicalrequirements (payload mass, payload power, delta V, pointingcontrol, and downlink rate). GPR is implemented in ABCDE asa Bayesian method which fits an implied multivariate regressionon the technical parameters and uses kriging to intentionally“overfit” the residuals. Overfitting the residuals allows costestimates to collapse in uncertainty closer to the data pointswhile maintaining larger uncertainty intervals in regions of parameterspace with fewer data records. The data used to fit thismodel is sensitive and represents cost estimates for off-the-shelfcommercial buses. GPR simultaneously protects the sensitivityof the database and uses the sparse nature of the database toaccount for uncertainty in cost in a useful way. For a givenset of customer technical requirements, the tool provides a costestimate distribution, the percentiles of which can be interpretedas a confidence level of finding a commercial bus under a specifiedcost cap. ABCDE dramatically pushes the boundaries ofspacecraft cost estimation models due to its Bayesian methodology(accounting for the maximum uncertainty in the underlyingregression), the mathematically advanced kriging methodology,and the novelty of its application in Team X architecture tradestudies.

Austin, Alex↗

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations : Sensitivity Tests and Results - Part II

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference↗

Improvement of Quantification in Non-Destructive Characterization of Radioactive Waste Packages -Introduction to the Ideas of a Currently Started Project - 20197

For the characterization of radioactive waste packages (e.g. 200-L drums) with inhomogeneous activity and density distributions preferably non-destructive methods like segmented gamma scanning and transmission measurements are applied. While the first is used for identification of the radioactive inventory, both are necessary for a reliable activity quantification. Although at nuclear facilities, segmented gamma scanner are state-of-the-art and are mostly equipped with a vertically moveable transmission source the combining of this data and further a-priori information improving accuracy in data estimation giving realistic, reliable and traceable uncertainty estimations are improvable. This challenge is tackled by a R and D project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The boundary conditions for this project are (i) taking into account the typical instrumentation available at nuclear facilities, (ii) minimize the overall measurement time and (iii) combining data from emission and transmission measurements by Bayesian methods. For the R and D project, being still in its initial stage, the basic ideas, the data used for evaluation and the result of a preliminary investigation demonstrating the proof of principle are presented. Additionally, some first aspects on spatial resolution in emission and transmission measurements are addressed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Bayesian Cross-matching of High Proper-motion Stars in Gaia DR2 and Photometric Metallicities for ∼1.7 million K and M Dwarfs

We present a Bayesian method to cross-match 5,827,988 high proper-motion Gaia sources (μ > 40 mas yr{sup −1}) to various photometric surveys: Two Micron All Sky Survey, AllWISE data release from the Wide-field Infrared Explorer (WISE) mission, Galaxy Evolution Explorer, Radial Velocity Experiment, Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS). To efficiently associate these objects across catalogs, we develop a technique that compares the multidimensional distribution of all sources in the vicinity of each Gaia star to a reference distribution of random field stars obtained by extracting all sources in a region on the sky displaced 2′. This offset preserves the local field stellar density and magnitude distribution, allowing us to characterize the frequency of chance alignments. The resulting catalog with Bayesian probabilities >95% has a marginally higher match rate than current internal Gaia data release 2 (DR2) matches for most catalogs. However, a significant improvement is found with Pan-STARRS, where ∼99.8% of the sample within the Pan-STARRS footprint is recovered, as compared to a low ∼20.8% in Gaia DR2. Using these results, we train a Gaussian process regressor to calibrate two photometric metallicity relationships. For dwarfs of 3500 < T{sub eff} < 5280 K, we use metallicity values of 4378 stars from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment and Hejazi et al. to calibrate the relationship, producing results with a 1σ precision of 0.12 dex and few systematic errors. We then indirectly infer the metallicity of 4018 stars with 2850 < T{sub eff} < 3500 K, which are wide companions of primaries whose metallicities are estimated with our first regressor, to produce a relationship with a 1σ precision of 0.21 dex and significant systematic errors. Additional work is needed to better remove unresolved binaries from this second sample to reduce these systematic errors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗