Results for “Bayesian error estimator” — Page 5

NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Quantification of GEOS-5 L-band Radiative Transfer Model Parameters Using Bayesian Inference and SMOS Observations

Uncertainties in L-band (1.4 GHz) radiative transfer modeling (RTM) affect the simulation of brightness temperatures (Tb) over land and the inversion of satellite-observed Tb into soil moisture retrievals. In particular, accurate estimates of the microwave soil roughness, vegetation opacity and scattering albedo for large-scale applications are difficult to obtain from field studies and often lack an uncertainty estimate. Here, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is used to determine satellite-scale estimates of RTM parameters and their posterior uncertainty by minimizing the misfit between long-term averages and standard deviations of simulated and observed Tb at a range of incidence angles, at horizontal and vertical polarization, and for morning and evening overpasses. Tb simulations are generated with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and confronted with Tb observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The MCMC algorithm suggests that the relative uncertainty of the RTM parameter estimates is typically less than 25 of the maximum a posteriori density (MAP) parameter value. Furthermore, the actual root-mean-square-differences in long-term Tb averages and standard deviations are found consistent with the respective estimated total simulation and observation error standard deviations of m3.1K and s2.4K. It is also shown that the MAP parameter values estimated through MCMC simulation are in close agreement with those obtained with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).

MCMC↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-Response Curves

NASA will soon be collecting noise-annoyance community survey data as the X-59 aircraft flies supersonically over several communities in the USA. Sparse measurements of the X-59 sonic thumps will be used together with physics-based simulations to estimate noise doses at survey participant locations. These dose estimates have associated error that affects the accuracy of modeled dose-response curves, which can result in misestimation of annoyance. The precision in dose-response curves is also a consideration in selecting the number of survey participants. To enable pretest studies of dose error and precision, simulated dose-response data were generated based on NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 test. The data included various degrees of dose error and sample size. Frequentist multilevel logistic regression models were fit to the true and perturbed dose-response data. Simple proportional relationships were identified between the model parameters and the perturbation standard deviation. The summary dose-response curves illustrate the impact on accuracy if dose error is not accounted for in the model. The precision in the dose-response curves is also shown as the number of participants and degree of participation is varied. Finally, sampling variability is illustrated by showing the dose-response curves for several replicates with random draws of participants and errors.

X-59↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-response Curves

NASA will soon be collecting noise-annoyance community survey data as the X-59 aircraft flies supersonically over several communities in the USA. Sparse measurements of the X-59 sonic thumps will be used together with physics-based simulations to estimate noise doses at survey participant locations. These dose estimates have associated error that affects the accuracy of modeled dose-response curves, which can result in misestimation of annoyance. The precision in dose-response curves is also a consideration in selecting the number of survey participants. To enable pretest studies of dose error and precision, simulated dose-response data were generated based on NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 test. The data included various degrees of dose error and sample size. Frequentist multilevel logistic regression models were fit to the true and perturbed dose-response data. Simple proportional relationships were identified between the model parameters and the perturbation standard deviation. The summary dose-response curves illustrate the impact on accuracy if dose error is not accounted for in the model. The precision in the dose-response curves is also shown as the number of participants and degree of participation is varied. Finally, sampling variability is illustrated by showing the dose-response curves for several replicates with random draws of participants and errors.

X-59↗

NASA NTRS1997

Shape Optimization by Bayesian-Validated Computer-Simulation Surrogates

A nonparametric-validated, surrogate approach to optimization has been applied to the computational optimization of eddy-promoter heat exchangers and to the experimental optimization of a multielement airfoil. In addition to the baseline surrogate framework, a surrogate-Pareto framework has been applied to the two-criteria, eddy-promoter design problem. The Pareto analysis improves the predictability of the surrogate results, preserves generality, and provides a means to rapidly determine design trade-offs. Significant contributions have been made in the geometric description used for the eddy-promoter inclusions as well as to the surrogate framework itself. A level-set based, geometric description has been developed to define the shape of the eddy-promoter inclusions. The level-set technique allows for topology changes (from single-body,eddy-promoter configurations to two-body configurations) without requiring any additional logic. The continuity of the output responses for input variations that cross the boundary between topologies has been demonstrated. Input-output continuity is required for the straightforward application of surrogate techniques in which simplified, interpolative models are fitted through a construction set of data. The surrogate framework developed previously has been extended in a number of ways. First, the formulation for a general, two-output, two-performance metric problem is presented. Surrogates are constructed and validated for the outputs. The performance metrics can be functions of both outputs, as well as explicitly of the inputs, and serve to characterize the design preferences. By segregating the outputs and the performance metrics, an additional level of flexibility is provided to the designer. The validated outputs can be used in future design studies and the error estimates provided by the output validation step still apply, and require no additional appeals to the expensive analysis. Second, a candidate-based a posteriori error analysis capability has been developed which provides probabilistic error estimates on the true performance for a design randomly selected near the surrogate-predicted optimal design.

Patera, Anthony T.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Simulation and Application of Bayesian Dose Uncertainty Modeling for Low-Boom Community Noise Surveys

In dose-response modeling, failing to account for dose uncertainty can cause artificial flattening of the estimated slope of the dose-response curve. Previous analyses of NASA sonic boom community noise survey data utilized a Bayesian multilevel logistic regression model, which did not account for dose uncertainty. The current work extends the model to account for either classical or Berkson dose uncertainty. The extended model is applied to two simulated dose-response datasets to illustrate conditions under which the dose uncertainty term does and does not correct for the artificial flattening introduced by dose uncertainty. Finally, the extended model is applied to two previous NASA sonic boom community noise surveys. The resulting dose-response curve slope for the average participant is 5 to 10% steeper, but the difference in the noise dose that elicits a 5% highly annoyed response is small (less than 1 dB). The difference remains insignificant when producing population summary dose-response curves. Commentary is included on applicability to future X-59 low-boom community noise survey data modeling and analysis.

X-59↗