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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing rotational bands in odd-mass nuclei using effective field theory and Bayesian methods

We recently developed an Effective Field Theory (EFT) for rotational bands in odd-mass nuclei. Here we use EFT expressions to perform a Bayesian analysis of data on the rotational energy levels of 99 Tc, 155,157 Gd, 159 Dy, 167,169 Er, 167,169 Tm, 183 W, 235 U and 239 Pu. The error model in our Bayesian analysis includes both experimental and EFT truncation uncertainties. It also accounts for the fact that low-energy constants (LECs) at even and odd orders are expected to have different sizes. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to explore the joint posterior of the EFT and error-model parameters and show both the LECs and the breakdown scale can be reliably determined. We extract the LECs up to fourth order in the EFT and find that, provided we correctly account for EFT truncation errors in our likelihood, results for lower-order LECs are stable as we go to higher orders. LEC results are also stable with respect to the addition of higher-energy data. We extract the expansion parameter for all the nuclei listed above and find a clear correlation between the extracted and the expected value of the inverse breakdown scale, W, based on the single-particle and vibrational energy scales. However, the W that actually determines the convergence of the EFT expansion is markedly smaller than would be naively expected based on those scales.

EFT↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian nonparametric analysis for zero-inflated multivariate count data with application to microbiome study

High-throughput sequencing technology has enabled researchers to profile microbial communities from a variety of environments, but analysis of multivariate taxon count data remains challenging. Here, we develop a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model with zero inflation to analyse multivariate count data from microbiome studies. A BNP approach flexibly models microbial associations with covariates, such as environmental factors and clinical characteristics. The model produces estimates for probability distributions which relate microbial diversity and differential abundance to covariates, and facilitates community comparisons beyond those provided by simple statistical tests. We compare the model to simpler models and popular alternatives in simulation studies, showing, in addition to these additional community-level insights, it yields superior parameter estimates and model fit in various settings. The model's utility is demonstrated by applying it to a chronic wound microbiome data set and a Human Microbiome Project data set, where it is used to compare microbial communities present in different environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

IceCube Search for Neutrinos Coincident with Gravitational Wave Events from LIGO/Virgo Run O3

Using data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, we searched for high-energy neutrino emission from the gravitational-wave events detected by the advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors during their third observing run. We did a low-latency follow-up on the public candidate events released during the detectors' third observing run and an archival search on the 80 confident events reported in the GWTC-2.1 and GWTC-3 catalogs. An extended search was also conducted for neutrino emission on longer timescales from neutron star containing mergers. Follow-up searches on the candidate optical counterpart of GW190521 were also conducted. We used two methods; an unbinned maximum likelihood analysis and a Bayesian analysis using astrophysical priors, both of which were previously used to search for high-energy neutrino emission from gravitational-wave events. No significant neutrino emission was observed by any analysis, and upper limits were placed on the time-integrated neutrino flux as well as the total isotropic equivalent energy emitted in high-energy neutrinos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK XI. Bayesian CMB analysis with sample-based end-to-end error propagation

We present posterior sample-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints from Planck LFI and WMAP observations as derived through global end-to-end Bayesian processing within the BeyondPlanck framework. We first use these samples to study correlations between CMB, foreground, and instrumental parameters, and we identify a particularly strong degeneracy between CMB temperature fluctuations and free-free emission on intermediate angular scales (400 ≲ ℓ ≲ 600), which is mitigated through model reduction, masking, and resampling. We compare our posterior-based CMB results with previous Planck products, and find generally good agreement, although with notably higher noise due to our exclusion of HFI data. We find a best-fit CMB dipole amplitude of 3362.7 ± 1.4 µK, in excellent agreement with previous Planck results. The quoted dipole uncertainty is derived directly from the sampled posterior distribution, and does not involve any ad hoc contributions for Planck instrumental systematic effects. Similarly, we find a temperature quadrupole amplitude of ${σ}_{2}^{TT}$ = 229 ± 97 µK 2 , which is in good agreement with previous results in terms of the amplitude, but the uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the naive diagonal Fisher uncertainty. Relatedly, we find lower evidence for a possible alignment between the quadrupole and octopole than previously reported due to a much larger scatter in the individual quadrupole coefficients, caused both by marginalizing over a more complete set of systematic effects, but also by our more conservative analysis mask required to mitigate the free-free degeneracy. For higher multipoles, we find that the angular temperature power spectrum is generally in good agreement with both Planck and WMAP. At the same time, we note that this is the first time the sample-based asymptotically exact Blackwell-Rao estimator has been successfully established for multipoles up to ℓ ≤ 600, and it now accounts for the majority of the cosmologically important information. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the unique capabilities of the Bayesian approach with respect to end-to-end systematic uncertainty propagation, and we believe it can and should play an important role in the analysis of future CMB experiments. Cosmological parameter constraints are presented in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliability Prediction using FMEA, FTA, and Related Techniques [Slides]

Summary: We presented a reliability analysis framework. We made point estimates of reliability using reliability block diagrams, fault trees, success trees and estimates with uncertainty using expert elicitation, Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis. Expert elicitation of failure modes and probabilities is labor-intensive, but critical. Bayesian analysis updates information from expert elicitation with data from reliability and aging tests (aging/compatibility data are needed to estimate lower-bound reliabilities at end of life). Estimation by more than one method helps insure consistency and accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Retrospective Analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging of CMIP6 Precipitation in the Nile River Basin

The Nile River basin is one of the global hotspots vulnerable to climate change impacts because of a fast-growing population and geopolitical tensions. Previous studies demonstrated that general circulation models (GCMs) frequently show disagreement in the sign of change in annual precipitation projections. Here, we first evaluate the performance of 20 GCMs from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) benchmarked against a high-spatial-resolution precipitation dataset dating back to 1983 from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). Next, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach is adopted to derive probability distributions of precipitation projections in the Nile basin. Retrospective analysis reveals that most GCMs exhibit considerable (up to 64% of mean annual precipitation) and spatially heterogenous bias in simulating annual precipitation. Moreover, it is shown that all GCMs underestimate interannual variability; thus, the ensemble range is underdispersive and is a poor indicator of uncertainty. The projected changes from the BMA model show that the value and sign of change vary considerably across the Nile basin. Specifically, it is found that projected changes in the two headwaters basins, namely, the Blue Nile and Upper White Nile, are 0.03% and -1.65%, respectively; both are statistically insignificant at α = 0.05. The uncertainty range estimated from the BMA model shows that the probability of a precipitation decrease is much higher in the Upper White Nile basin whereas projected change in the Blue Nile is highly uncertain both in magnitude and sign of change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global constraint on the jet transport coefficient from single-hadron, dihadron, and γ -hadron spectra in high-energy heavy-ion collisions

Modifications of large transverse momentum single-hadron, dihadron, and γ -hadron spectra in relativistic heavy-ion collisions are direct consequences of parton-medium interactions in the quark-gluon plasma (QGP). The interaction strength and underlying dynamics can be quantified by the jet transport coefficient q ̂ . We carry out the first global constraint on q ̂ using a next-to-leading order pQCD parton model with higher-twist parton energy loss and combining world experimental data on single-hadron, dihadron, and γ -hadron suppression at both RHIC and LHC energies with a wide range of centralities. The global Bayesian analysis using the information field (IF) priors provides the most stringent constraint on q ̂ ( T ) . We demonstrate in particular the progressive constraining power of the IF Bayesian analysis on the strong temperature dependence of q ̂ using data from different centralities and colliding energies. We also discuss the advantage of using both inclusive and correlation observables with different geometric biases. As a verification, the obtained q ̂ ( T ) is shown to describe data on single-hadron anisotropy at high transverse momentum well. Predictions for future jet quenching measurements in oxygen-oxygen collisions are also provided. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting Bayesian constraints on the transport coefficients of QCD

Multistage models based on relativistic viscous hydrodynamics have proven successful in describing hadron measurements from relativistic nuclear collisions. These measurements are sensitive to the shear and the bulk viscosities of QCD and provide a unique opportunity to constrain these transport coefficients. Bayesian analyses can be used to obtain systematic constraints on the viscosities of QCD, through methodical model-to-data comparisons. In this manuscript, we discuss recent developments in Bayesian analyses of heavy ion collision data. Furthermore, we highlight the essential role of closure tests in validating a Bayesian analysis before comparison with measurements. We discuss the role of the emulator that is used as proxy for the multistage theoretical model. We use an ongoing Bayesian analysis of soft hadron measurements by the JETSCAPE Collaboration as context for the discussion.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Importance of Multiplicity Fluctuations in Entropy Scaling

One of the greatest uncertainties in heavy-ion collisions is the description of the initial state. Different models predict a wide range of initial energy density distributions based on their underlying assumptions. Final flow harmonics are sensitive to these differences in the initial state due to the nearly linear mapping between eccentricities and anisotropic flow harmonics. The Trento code uses a model-agnostic approach by phenomenologically parameterizing the initial state and constraining those parameters from a Bayesian analysis. There the multiplicity fluctuations were determined by a one parameter Γ distribution. However, initial-state models arising from the Color-Glass Condensate (CGC) framework lead to an initial energy density which is outside the functional form considered in Trento and its later Bayesian analyses because they rely on log-normal multiplicity fluctuations. We compare T A T B scaling (CGC-like) to √T A T B scaling (preferred from a Trento Bayesian analysis) and find that the T A T B form together with log-normal fluctuations is a reasonable candidate to describe the multiplicity fluctuations but leads to larger eccentricities, which would affect the extraction of viscosity in small systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparison between residential relocation timing of Sydney and Chicago residents: A Bayesian survival analysis

We report that understanding households' behaviour in residential relocation timing is of great importance in the field of transport engineering and economics. This research aims to develop a residential relocation model by considering the potential dynamic impacts of other households' decisions and variables, including economic and demographic attributes, housing features, intra-household decision-making structures, travel mode choice, and other life-course attributes. A multivariate parametric survival model with both fixed and time-varying covariates is developed. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first paper in the literature of residential relocation timing to propose the use of a Bayesian model in contrast to the widely used classic frequentist approach and have conducted a discussion on its advantages. An emerging residential relocation dataset collected for two cities in Australia and the USA (Sydney and Chicago cities) has been used, which covers residence, vehicle ownership, occupation, education, economic and demographic attributes of respondents. A comprehensive comparison between the results of two cities and a comparison between two Bayesian and frequentist approaches are made. This study confirms the impact of life-course variables, intra-household decision-making behaviours, and sociodemographic attributes on home mobility. According to the model outputs, the accelerating or decelerating impact of explanatory variables on the relocation timing has been almost the same in the two cities. The Bayesian model was confirmed to have some advantages over the frequentist model, including being straightforward to interpret, availability of making inferences on the results, and ease of handling complex models, and optimisation convergence complexities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty quantification in breakup reactions

Breakup reactions are one of the favored probes to study loosely bound nuclei, particularly those in the limit of stability forming a halo. In order to interpret such breakup experiments, the continuum discretized coupled channel method is typically used. In this study, the first Bayesian analysis of a breakup reaction model is performed. Herein we use a combination of statistical methods together with a three-body reaction model (the continuum discretized coupled channel method) to quantify the uncertainties on the breakup observables due to the parameters in the effective potential describing the loosely bound projectile of interest. The combination of tools we develop opens the path for a Bayesian analysis of not only breakup processes, but also a wide array of complex processes that require computationally intensive reaction models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using Bayesian Networks for Sensitivity Analysis of Complex Biogeochemical Models

Sensitivity analysis is a vital tool in numerical modeling to identify important parameters and processes that contribute to the overall uncertainty in model outputs. We developed a new sensitivity analysis method to quantify the relative importance of uncertain model processes that contain multiple uncertain parameters. The method is based on the concepts of Bayesian networks (BNs) to account for complex hierarchical uncertainty structure of a model system. We derived a new set of sensitivity indices using the methodology of variance-based global sensitivity analysis with the Bayesian inference. The framework is capable of representing the detailed uncertainty information of a complex model system using BNs and affords flexible grouping of different uncertain inputs given their characteristics and dependency structures. We have implemented the method on a real-world biogeochemical model at the groundwater-surface water interface within the Hanford Site’s 300 Area. The uncertainty sources of the model were first grouped into forcing scenario and three different processes based on our understanding of the complex system. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that both the reactive transport and groundwater flow processes are important sources of uncertainty for carbon-consumption predictions. Within the groundwater flow process, the structure of geological formations is more important than the permeability heterogeneity within a given geological formation. Our new sensitivity analysis framework based on BNs offers substantial flexibility for investigating the importance of combinations of interacting uncertainty sources in a hierarchical order, and it is expected to be applicable to a wide range of multi-physics models for complex systems.

Dai, Heng↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

OGLE-2018-BLG-1185b: A Low-mass Microlensing Planet Orbiting a Low-mass Dwarf

We report an analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-1185, which was observed by a large number of ground-based telescopes and by the Spitzer Space Telescope. The ground-based light curve indicates a low planet–host star mass ratio of q = (6.9 ± 0.2) × 10{sup −5}, which is near the peak of the wide-orbit exoplanet mass-ratio distribution. We estimate the host star and planet masses with a Bayesian analysis using the measured angular Einstein radius under the assumption that stars of all masses have an equal probability of hosting the planet. The flux variation observed by Spitzer is marginal, but still places a constraint on the microlens parallax. Imposing a conservative constraint that this flux variation should be Δf {sub Spz} < 4 instrumental flux units yields a host mass of M{sub host}=0.37{sub −0.21}{sup +0.35} M{sub ⊙} and a planet mass of m{sub p}=8.4{sub −4.7}{sup +7.9} M{sub ⊕}. A Bayesian analysis including the full parallax constraint from Spitzer suggests smaller host star and planet masses of M{sub host}=0.091{sub −0.018}{sup +0.064} M{sub ⊙} and m{sub p}=2.1{sub −0.4}{sup +1.5} M{sub ⊕}, respectively. Future high-resolution imaging observations with the Hubble Space Telescope or Extremely Large Telescope could distinguish between these two scenarios and help reveal the planetary system properties in more detail.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kβ X-ray Emission Spectra Analysis Using Bayesian Optimization

The Kβ X-ray emission spectrum of 3 d transition metals is rich with electronic and structural information due to strong exchange interactions with the valence shell of the metal, and has become crucial for understanding their spin and oxidation states. The spectrum is commonly treated using crystal-field multiplet theory, a semi-empirical theory that uses tunable parameters to control the strength of the effects present in X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES). However, determining the experimental values of these parameters remains a challenge. We present a methodology that applies Bayesian optimization to crystal-field multiplet theory to determine parameter values. The algorithm is tested on the X-ray emission spectra of a collection of Mn, Co, and Ni oxides. We are able to find optimal values for the four most impactful parameters: Slater−Condon reduction factors F dd , F pd , and G pd , and crystal field splitting 10 Dq . The algorithm produces significantly improved accuracy compared to current analysis methods, and probes interparameter dependencies by modeling the error landscape. This advancement enhances XES analysis by offering an approach of obtaining quantitative electronic structural information on 3 d transition metal valence shells, facilitating applications across various scientific fields.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2017

OGLE-2013-BLG-1761Lb: A Massive Planet around an M/K Dwarf

We report the discovery and the analysis of the planetary microlensing event, OGLE-2013-BLG-1761. There are some degenerate solutions in this event because the planetary anomaly is only sparsely sampled. However, the detailed light-curve analysis ruled out all stellar binary models and shows the lens to be a planetary system. There is the so-called close/wide degeneracy in the solutions with the planet/host mass ratio of q ∼ (7.0 ± 2.0) × 10{sup −3} and q ∼ (8.1 ± 2.6) × 10{sup −3} with the projected separation in Einstein radius units of s = 0.95 (close) and s = 1.18 (wide), respectively. The microlens parallax effect is not detected, but the finite source effect is detected. Our Bayesian analysis indicates that the lens system is located D{sub L}=6.9{sub −1.2}{sup +1.0} kpc away from us and the host star is an M/K dwarf with a mass of M{sub L}=0.33{sub −0.19}{sup +0.32} M{sub ⊙} orbited by a super-Jupiter mass planet with a mass of m{sub P}=2.7{sub −1.5}{sup +2.5} M{sub Jup} at the projected separation of a{sub ⊥}=1.8{sub −0.5}{sup +0.5} au. The preference of the large lens distance in the Bayesian analysis is due to the relatively large observed source star radius. The distance and other physical parameters may be constrained by the future high-resolution imaging by large ground telescopes or HST. If the estimated lens distance is correct, then this planet provides another sample for testing the claimed deficit of planets in the Galactic bulge.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced data analysis in inertial confinement fusion and high energy density physics

Bayesian analysis enables flexible and rigorous definition of statistical model assumptions with well-characterized propagation of uncertainties and resulting inferences for single-shot, repeated, or even cross-platform data. This approach has a strong history of application to a variety of problems in physical sciences ranging from inference of particle mass from multi-source high-energy particle data to analysis of black-hole characteristics from gravitational wave observations. The recent adoption of Bayesian statistics for analysis and design of high-energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments has provided invaluable gains in expert understanding and experiment performance. In this Review, we discuss the basic theory and practical application of the Bayesian statistics framework. We highlight a variety of studies from the HEDP and ICF literature, demonstrating the power of this technique. Due to the computational complexity of multi-physics models needed to analyze HEDP and ICF experiments, Bayesian inference is often not computationally tractable. Two sections are devoted to a review of statistical approximations, efficient inference algorithms, and data-driven methods, such as deep-learning and dimensionality reduction, which play a significant role in enabling use of the Bayesian framework. We provide additional discussion of various applications of Bayesian and machine learning methods that appear to be sparse in the HEDP and ICF literature constituting possible next steps for the community. We conclude by highlighting community needs, the resolution of which will improve trust in data-driven methods that have proven critical for accelerating the design and discovery cycle in many application areas.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗