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DOE OSTI2016

Updating the U.S. Life Cycle GHG Petroleum Baseline to 2014 with Projections to 2040 Using Open-Source Engineering-Based Models

Here, the National Energy Technology Laboratory produced a well-to-wheels (WTW) life cycle greenhouse gas analysis of petroleum-based fuels consumed in the U.S. in 2005, known as the NETL 2005 Petroleum Baseline. This study uses a set of engineering-based, open-source models combined with publicly available data to calculate baseline results for 2014. An increase between the 2005 baseline and the 2014 results presented here (e.g., 92.4 vs 96.2 g CO 2 e/MJ gasoline, + 4.1%) are due to changes both in modeling platform and in the U.S. petroleum sector. An updated result for 2005 was calculated to minimize the effect of the change in modeling platform, and emissions for gasoline in 2014 were about 2% lower than in 2005 (98.1 vs 96.2 g CO 2 e/MJ gasoline). The same methods were utilized to forecast emissions from fuels out to 2040, indicating maximum changes from the 2014 gasoline result between +2.1% and –1.4%. The changing baseline values lead to potential compliance challenges with frameworks such as the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) Section 526, which states that Federal agencies should not purchase alternative fuels unless their life cycle GHG emissions are less than those of conventionally produced, petroleum-derived fuels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Baselining PMU Data to Find Patterns and Anomalies

This paper looks at the application of situational awareness methodologies with respect to power grid data. These methodologies establish baselines that look for typical patterns and atypical behavior in the data. The objectives of the baselining analyses are to provide: real-time analytics, the capability to look at historical trends and events, and reliable predictions of the near future state of the grid. Multivariate algorithms were created to establish normal baseline behavior and then score each moment in time according to its variance from the baseline. Detailed multivariate analytical techniques are described in this paper that produced ways to identify typical patterns and atypical behavior. In this case, atypical behavior is behavior that is unenvisioned. Visualizations were also produced to help explain the behavior that was identified mathematically. Examples are shown to help describe how to read and interpret the analyses and visualizations. Preliminary work has been performed on PMU data sets from BPA (Bonneville Power Administration) and EI (Eastern Interconnect). Actual results are not fully shown here because of confidentiality issues. Comparisons between atypical events found mathematically and actual events showed that many of the actual events are also atypical events; however there are many atypical events that do not correlate to any actual events. Additional work needs to be done to help classify the atypical events into actual events, so that the importance of the events can be better understood.

Baselining analyses↗

DOE OSTI2025

Baseline Graphite Characterization

Baseline Graphite Characterization: Purpose of Baseline, Mechanical Baseline Tests, Physical Properties Tests, Methodology, Baseline progress, Density, Ultimate Tensile Strength, PCEA Ultimate Tensile Strength, Split Disc Tests, Compression Tests, Flexural Tests, and Coefficient of Thermal Expansion.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino oscillation prospects with a dual-baseline beam from BNL to SNOLAB and SURF

The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) is a next-generation accelerator primarily designed to study the internal structure of nucleons through high-precision electron-hadron collisions. In this work, we explore the feasibility of employing a 1 MW fraction of the EIC proton beam to generate a high-intensity GeV-scale neutrino beam for long-baseline oscillation studies. We have simulated proton-target interactions and optimize the resulting neutrino fluxes for water-based liquid scintillator (WbLS) detectors located at distinct baselines of 900 km and at 2900 km. Oscillation analyses performed with GLoBES show that extended baselines allow access to multiple oscillation maxima, significantly enhancing sensitivity to leptonic CP violation. The study also examines the interplay between matter effects and the intrinsic CP violating phase in shaping observable asymmetries. We note that simplified systematics and no backgrounds are used in this analysis to establish the baseline physics potential. These results suggest that the EIC proton beam could provide a novel and complementary source for precision neutrino physics, extending the scientific reach of the EIC program.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solar parameters in long-baseline accelerator neutrino oscillations

Long-baseline (LBL) accelerator neutrino oscillation experiments, such as NOvA and T2K in the current generation, and DUNE-LBL and HK-LBL in the coming years, will measure the remaining unknown oscillation parameters with excellent precision. These analyses assume external input on the so-called “solar parameters,” θ 12 and $Δm^{2}_{21}$, from solar experiments such as SNO, SK, and Borexino, as well as reactor experiments like KamLAND. Here we investigate their role in long-baseline experiments. We show that, without external input on $Δm^{2}_{21}$ and θ 12 , the sensitivity to detecting and quantifying CP violation is significantly, but not entirely, reduced. Thus long-baseline accelerator experiments can actually determine $Δm^{2}_{21}$ and θ 12 , and thus all six oscillation parameters, without input from any other oscillation experiment. In particular, $Δm^{2}_{21}$ can be determined; thus DUNE-LBL and HK-LBL can measure both the solar and atmospheric mass splittings in their long-baseline analyses alone. While their sensitivities are not competitive with existing constraints, they are very orthogonal probes of solar parameters and provide a key consistency check of a less probed sector of the three-flavor oscillation picture. Furthermore, we also show that the true values of $Δm^{2}_{21}$ and θ 12 play an important role in the sensitivity of other oscillation parameters such as the CP violating phase δ.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking FFTF LOFWOS Test# 13 using SAM code: Baseline model development and uncertainty quantification

The development and deployment of advanced reactors, such as the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), relies on sophisticated modeling tools to ensure the safety of the design under various transients. The predictive capability of these advanced modeling tools requires validation to garner trust in supporting the licensing of the advanced reactors. For this reason, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiated a coordinated research project (CRP) in 2018 for the analysis of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) Test #13.In this study, we present and discuss the benchmarking efforts of the modern system code SAM on the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13. Further, the SAM baseline model was developed according to the benchmark specification, which included a detailed core model with reactivity feedback. Generally, good agreement was observed between the baseline results and benchmark measurements; however, discrepancies persisted, particularly in predicted fuel assembly coolant outlet temperatures. Utilizing the baseline model, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) were conducted with the assistance of various statistical learning and machine learning methods, including kernel density estimation, Gaussian processes, and Sobol indices. Following the baseline model prediction and UQ and SA results, we discuss the reasons for the simulation discrepancies and propose further improvements to the model. This benchmarking effort adheres to the best-estimate plus uncertainty approach and can serve as a valuable example for supporting risk-informed licensing of advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

The effect of short-baseline neutrino oscillations on LBNE

Short-baseline neutrino oscillations can have a relatively big effect on long-baseline oscillations, due to the cross terms that arise from multiple mass scales. The existing short-baseline anomalies suggest that short-baseline oscillations can affect the ν{sub μ} → ν{sub e} appearance probabilities by up to 20-40%, depending on the values of the CP-violating parameters.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Large-database cross-verification and validation of tokamak transport models using baselines for comparison

State-of-the-art 1D transport solvers ASTRA and TRANSP are verified, then validated across a large database of semi-randomly selected, time-dependent DIII-D discharges. Various empirical models are provided as baselines to contextualize the validation figures of merit using statistical hypothesis tests. For predicting plasma temperature profiles, no statistically significant advantage is found for the ASTRA and TRANSP simulators over a baseline empirical (two-parameter) model. For predicting stored energy, a significant advantage is found for the simulators over a baseline empirical model based on confinement time scaling. Uncertainty in the results due to diagnostic and profile fitting uncertainties is approximated and determined to be insignificant due in part to the large quantity of discharges employed in the study. Advantages are discussed for validation methodologies like this one that employ (1) large databases and (2) baselines for comparison that are specific to the intended use-case of the model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Terrestrial Very-Long-Baseline Atom Interferometry: summary of the second workshop

This summary of the second Terrestrial Very-Long-Baseline Atom Interferometry (TVLBAI) Workshop provides a comprehensive overview of our meeting held in London in April 2024 (Second Terrestrial Very-Long-Baseline Atom Interferometry Workshop, Imperial College, April 2024), building on the initial discussions during the inaugural workshop held at CERN in March 2023 (First Terrestrial Very-Long-Baseline Atom Interferometry Workshop, CERN, March 2023). Like the summary of the first workshop (Abend et al. in AVS Quantum Sci. 6:024701, 2024), this document records a critical milestone for the international atom interferometry community. It documents our concerted efforts to evaluate progress, address emerging challenges, and refine strategic directions for future large-scale atom interferometry projects. Our commitment to collaboration is manifested by the integration of diverse expertise and the coordination of international resources, all aimed at advancing the frontiers of atom interferometry physics and technology, as set out in a Memorandum of Understanding signed by over 50 institutions (Memorandum of Understanding for the Terrestrial Very Long Baseline Atom Interferometer Study).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

Significance of Metabolic Tumor Volume at Baseline and Reduction of Mean Standardized Uptake Value in {sup 18}F-FDG-PET/CT Imaging for Predicting Pathological Complete Response in Breast Cancers Treated with Preoperative Chemotherapy

Background: The usefulness of {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography/computed tomography for evaluating the treatment efficacy of breast cancers is well-established; however, the predictive values of parameters such as metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) remain unknown. Methods: This study examined 199 breast cancers treated with primary systemic chemotherapy (PSC) followed by operation, and determined the values of maximum standardized uptake value (SUV{sub max}), peak SUV (SUV{sub peak}), mean SUV (SUV{sub mean}), MTV, and TLG at baseline. Among these cases, data on early changes in these metabolic parameters in 70 breast cancers were also assessed. Results: A pathological complete response (pCR) was achieved in 64 breast cancers. Breast cancers with low MTV at baseline had a significantly higher pCR rate than breast cancers with high MTV (47.9% vs. 23.4%; p = 0.0005). High reduction rates (∆) of SUV{sub max} (p = 0.0001), SUV{sub peak} (p = 0.0001), and SUV{sub mean} (p < 0.0001) resulted in an increased pCR compared with those for low ∆. The pCR rate was highest for the combination of low MTV and high ∆SUV{sub mean} (86.7%), and lowest for high MTV and low ∆SUV{sub mean} (15.4%); the remaining combinations were intermediate (58.6%; p < 0.0001). The combination of low MTV at baseline and high ∆SUV{sub mean} was a significant and independent predictor for pCR (odds ratio 28.63; 95% confidence interval 1.94–422.42; p = 0.0146) in multivariable analysis. Conclusions: Low levels of MTV at baseline and a high reduction of SUV{sub mean} after PSC was significantly associated with pCR. These findings suggest the usefulness of these metabolic parameters for predicting the treatment efficacy of breast cancers.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Comparison between the Strength Levels of Baseline Nuclear-Grade Graphite and Graphite Irradiated in AGC-2

This report details the initial comparison of mechanical strength properties between the cylindrical nuclear-grade graphite specimens irradiated in the second Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC-2) experiment with the established baseline, or unirradiated, mechanical properties compiled in the Baseline Graphite Characterization program. The overall comparative analysis will describe the development of an appropriate test protocol for irradiated specimens, the execution of the mechanical tests on the AGC-2 sample population, and will further discuss the data in terms of developing an accurate irradiated property distribution in the limited amount of irradiated data by leveraging the considerably larger property datasets being captured in the Baseline Graphite Characterization program. Integrating information on the inherent variability in nuclear-grade graphite with more complete datasets is one of the goals of the VHTR Graphite Materials program. Between “sister” specimens, or specimens with the same geometry machined from the same sub-block of graphite from which the irradiated AGC specimens were extracted, and the Baseline datasets, a comprehensive body of data will exist that can provide both a direct and indirect indication of the full irradiated property distributions that can be expected of irradiated nuclear-grade graphite while in service in a VHTR system. While the most critical data will remain the actual irradiated property measurements, expansion of this data into accurate distributions based on the inherent variability in graphite properties will be a crucial step in qualifying graphite for nuclear use as a structural material in a VHTR environment.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2016

IEA Wind Task 26: Offshore Wind Farm Baseline Documentation

This document has been produced to provide the definition and rationale for the Baseline Offshore Wind Farm established within IEA Wind Task 26--Cost of Wind Energy. The Baseline has been developed to provide a common starting point for country comparisons and sensitivity analysis on key offshore wind cost and value drivers. The baseline project reflects an approximate average of the characteristics of projects installed between 2012 and 2014, with the project life assumed to be 20 years. The baseline wind farm is located 40 kilometres (km) from construction and operations and maintenance (O&M) ports and from export cable landfall. The wind farm consists of 100 4-megawatt (MW) wind turbines mounted on monopile foundations in an average water depth of 25 metres (m), connected by 33-kilovolt (kV) inter-array cables. The arrays are connected to a single offshore substation (33kV/220kV) mounted on a jacket foundation, with the substation connected via a single 220kV export cable to an onshore substation, 10km from landfall. The wind farm employs a port-based O&M strategy using crew-transfer vessels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cradle-to-Gate Life Cycle Analysis Baseline for United States Coal Mining and Delivery

The goal of this study is to highlight the environmental impacts from upstream coal production to its delivery at a power plant. This study is meant to characterize different coal basins, coal types, and mine types used to produce electric power in the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regions in the United States using a functional unit of 1 kg of coal. The boundary of this study includes underground or surface extraction, water use at the mine, ventilation, coal handling, coal cleaning, mine tailing disposal, and transportation via conveyer belt, truck, ocean vessel, barge, and train. See the following URLs for accompanying documents: NETL Coal Baseline Model - Transportation Inventories: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=27ea1ba4-6ea9-4ee5-8b32-d7fce7f4e1e0. NETL Coal Baseline Model - Basin Inventories: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=0f290eed-5e4b-4b5f-bec0-36b0ea89c6e5. NETL Coal Baseline Model - Excel file: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=0dc18730-4214-4878-8a0f-d1941c45123c. NETL Coal Baseline Model - Open LCA model: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=0c0dde04-0d3c-4c7f-bd33-2745e061b8e0.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Examination of 3013 Containers Baseline Surface Features

The Surveillance and Monitoring Program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) was tasked with evaluating the baseline features of 3013 containers. This baseline is to be used as a basis for comparison for 3013 containers that had been packaged with corrosive plutonium materials. The LANL team evaluated an unwelded container, an unused welded container, and a welded container that had held plutonium metal without any corrosive impurities. These three containers had features with depths no larger than 6 µm and had similar depth distributions. The features observed in the baseline containers were all shallower than those seen in containers packaged with corrosive plutonium materials. This work establishes workflows for feature identification and measurement, as well as establishment of baseline data for future comparison with corroded containers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Near Detector Selection for Neutral Current Disappearance Search at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program

Various short baseline neutrino experiments observe anomalies that challenge the three-flavor neutrino oscillation model, consistent with a hypothetical “sterile” neutrino that does not interact via the weak force. This poster presents a near detector event selection at the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND), developed for the first search for neutral current (NC) disappearance at short-baseline experiments. NC disappearance provides ``smoking gun” insight into the sterile neutrino question because NC interactions are equally sensitive to all three active neutrinos, meaning any change in the NC interaction rate between near and far detectors cannot be explained by oscillations among known flavor states. This analysis focuses on the NC1p topology, the most common NC interaction type at the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program. NC topologies are inherently challenging due to their low light yield and the absence of an outgoing charged lepton, which complicates identification and leads to poor energy reconstruction as the outgoing neutrino carries away a large portion of the neutrino’s initial energy. This work presents an NC1p event selection at the near detector, highlighting SBND’s impressive detector capabilities, including trigger efficiency studies. Combined with a novel kinematic energy reconstruction technique leveraging the detector’s outstanding hadronic detail, this analysis establishes a robust near detector foundation to target an NC disappearance measurement consistent with the 3$+$1 sterile neutrino model. This SBND selection will soon be combined with the far detector to conduct an NC disappearance search, providing unique insight and complementary information to traditional charged current searches and advancing the SBN Program’s goal to resolve the sterile neutrino question, including 3$+$1 searches and beyond.

Nicole Pallat, Nicole Pallat [Minnesota U.] (ORCID↗

NASA NTRS1973

Geosynchronous platform definition study. Volume 4, Part 1: Traffic analysis and system requirements for the baseline traffic model

The traffic analyses and system requirements data generated in the study resulted in the development of two traffic models; the baseline traffic model and the new traffic model. The baseline traffic model provides traceability between the numbers and types of geosynchronous missions considered in the study and the entire spectrum of missions foreseen in the total national space program. The information presented pertaining to the baseline traffic model includes: (1) definition of the baseline traffic model, including identification of specific geosynchronous missions and their payload delivery schedules through 1990; (2) Satellite location criteria, including the resulting distribution of the satellite population; (3) Geosynchronous orbit saturation analyses, including the effects of satellite physical proximity and potential electromagnetic interference; and (4) Platform system requirements analyses, including satellite and mission equipment descriptions, the options and limitations in grouping satellites, and on-orbit servicing criteria (both remotely controlled and man-attended).

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1974

Earth Observatory Satellite system definition study. Report 5: System design and specifications. Volume 1: Baseline system description

A system baseline design oriented to the requirements of the next generation of Earth Observatory Satellite missions is presented. The first mission (EOS-A) is envisioned as a two-fold mission which (1) provides a continuum of data of the type being supplied by ERTS for the emerging operational applications and also (2) expands the research and development activities for future instrumentation and analysis techniques. The baseline system specifically satisfies the requirements of this first mission. However, EOS-A is expected to be the first of a series of earth observation missions. Thus the baseline design has been developed so as to accommodate these latter missions effectively as the transition is made from conventional, expendable launch vehicles and spacecraft to the Shuttle Space Transportation System era. Further, a subset of alternative missions requirements including Seasat, SEOS, SMM and MSS-5 have been analyzed to verify that the spacecraft design to serve a multi-mission role is economically sound. A key feature of the baseline system design is the concept of a modular observatory system whose elements are compatible with varying levels of launch vehicle capability. The design configuration can be used with either the Delta or Titan launch vehicles and will adapt readily to the space shuttle when that system becomes available in the early 1980's.

Source record↗