Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Aviation security”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Flow Reactor Study of the Soot Precursors of Novel Cycloalkanes as Synthetic Jet Fuel Compounds: Octahydroindene, p -Menthane, and 1,4-Dimethylcyclooctane

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) or Synthetic aviation turbine fuels (SATFs) derived from nonpetroleum sources are essential for energy security and a strong rural and agricultural economy. Airplanes operating on SAF can have lower particle emissions compared to those of conventional jet fuel, reducing air quality impacts near airports. Processing biobased isoprene or wood and agricultural waste can produce cycloalkane-rich fuels with properties meeting ASTM International’s SATF requirements. The unique structures of these cycloalkanes yield lower soot emissions because of their lack of aromatic rings. We measured the soot formation tendency as yield sooting index (YSI) and used laminar flow reactor experiments to evaluate soot precursors formed for isoprene-derived compounds p-menthane and 1,4-dimethylcyclooctane (DMCO), and octahydroindene (OHI)─ produced from woody biomass via catalytic fast pyrolysis. The combustion chemistry of the OHI and DMCO has not been previously studied. Experiments were conducted at 10 bar from 800 to 1200 K, equivalence ratios of 1.0 and 3.0, and residence times of 1.0 and 0.6 s, respectively. Experimentally detected species were used to elucidate the mechanisms of soot precursor formation. OHI exhibited the highest YSI (94.5) and formed a high concentration of benzene primarily by direct dehydrogenation of the six-membered ring. p-Menthane (YSI 92.0) and DMCO (YSI 85.0) oxidation products included fewer aromatic components but higher benzene precursors, including 1,3-butadiene, propyne, and allene. This suggests that the ring-opening pathway is dominant over the dehydrogenation pathway in the benzene formation for these compounds. This experimental speciation provides insight into the influence of the cycloalkane structure on the sooting tendencies of potential SAF blend components, thereby aiding in fuel design processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

De-Risking Megawatt-Scale Charging

Part of Session 9 of the 2025 Airport Energy Management Symposium: Energy Technology Futures - When Technology is Changing Faster than Planning, How Do You Prepare? This session will look at the current state of novel technologies and how airports might prepare to just the right amount to be prepared for the uncertainties. This presentation will focus on de-risking megawatt-scale charging for airport and aviation applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2015

Laser Imaging Video Camera Sees Through Fire, Fog, Smoke

Under a series of SBIR contracts with Langley Research Center, inventor Richard Billmers refined a prototype for a laser imaging camera capable of seeing through fire, fog, smoke, and other obscurants. Now, Canton, Ohio-based Laser Imaging through Obscurants (LITO) Technologies Inc. is demonstrating the technology as a perimeter security system at Glenn Research Center and planning its future use in aviation, shipping, emergency response, and other fields.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of soot formation from aviation fuels in laminar counterflow flames

Combustion emissions from aviation contribute to the formation of condensation trail (contrail) that can lead to the formation of anthropogenic cirrus clouds. Ice particles that form contrails are observed to have a linear correlation with soot particle number density. Synthetic aviation fuels (SAFs) offer a promising route to mitigate the production of soot particles while also increasing energy security. Although studies have focused on combustion and spray behavior, the detailed investigation of soot formation processes for different jet fuels and their impact on models for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) applications is not well understood. Moreover, experimental measurements of soot for canonical flames using Synthetic aviation fuels (SAF) for model validation remain scarce. To address this, we use employed the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) detailed soot model based on the discrete sectional method. Additionally, we develop two reduced chemical mechanisms for Jet-A and Alcohol-to-Jet (C1) that are suitable for turbulent flame simulations and couple them with the Hybrid Method of Moments (HMOM). The detailed and reduced model frameworks are validated against experimental measurements of soot volume fraction (ƒ ν ) from a counterflow burner experiment previously reported in the literature. Given the good agreement between modeling results and experimental measurements for the (1) spatial distribution of ƒ ν and (2) the non-linear variation of peak ƒ ν with strain rate, we further investigate the modeled sub-processes (nucleation, condensation, surface growth, and oxidation) using the LLNL model to analyze the assumptions in the reduced model framework. Furthermore, the results indicate a significant contribution from resonant radicals to the surface growth of soot particles, which are not accounted for in the current implementation of HMOM and could help reconcile soot predictions by the reduced model with observations.

Counterflow↗
NASA NTRS1994

Icarus Rewaxed: A high speed, low-cost general aviation aircraft for Aeroworld

Icarus Rewaxed is a single engine, six passenger, general aviation airplane. With a cruise velocity of 72 ft/s, the Icarus can compete with the performance of any other airplane in its class with an eye on economics and safety. It has a very competitive initial price ($3498.00) and cost per flight ($6.36-8.40). Icarus can serve all airports in Aeroworld with a takeoff distance of 25.4 feet and maximum range of 38,000 feet. It is capable of taking off from an unprepared field with a grass depth of 3 inches. Icarus Rewaxed fills the market need for a high-speed, low cost aircraft. It provides customers with a general aviation craft that can compete in the existing performance market with the added security of an advanced structure. With the use of advanced materials, the maneuvering capability of the Icarus is increased, as it can withstand greater load factors than previous aircraft.

Farrens, Bryan↗
NASA NTRS2017

Development of a High-Fidelity Simulation Environment for Shadow-Mode Assessments of Air Traffic Concepts

This paper will describe the purpose, architecture, and implementation of a gate-to-gate, high-fidelity air traffic simulation environment called the Shadow Mode Assessment using Realistic Technologies for the National Airspace System (SMART-NAS) Test Bed.The overarching purpose of the SMART-NAS Test Bed (SNTB) is to conduct high-fidelity, real-time, human-in-the-loop and automation-in-the-loop simulations of current and proposed future air traffic concepts for the Next Generation Air Transportation System of the United States, called NextGen. SNTB is intended to enable simulations that are currently impractical or impossible for three major areas of NextGen research and development: Concepts across multiple operational domains such as the gate-to-gate trajectory-based operations concept; Concepts related to revolutionary operations such as the seamless and widespread integration of large and small Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) vehicles throughout U.S. airspace; Real-time system-wide safety assurance technologies to allow safe, increasingly autonomous aviation operations. SNTB is primarily accessed through a web browser. A set of secure support services are provided to simplify all aspects of real-time, human-in-the-loop and automation-in-the-loop simulations from design (i.e., prior to execution) through analysis (i.e., after execution). These services include simulation architecture and asset configuration; scenario generation; command, control and monitoring; and analysis support.

human-in-the-loop↗
NASA NTRS2024

Architecture of High-Altitude Operations (HAO) Discovery and Synchronization Service (DSS)

The aviation industry is evolving at an unprecedented pace, necessitating the development of efficient, secure, and interoperable systems to manage increasingly complex air traffic. Moreover, the demand for High-Altitude Operations (HAO) is increasing. Furthermore, air traffic control services are limited in HAO environments. HAO industry participants will need airspace access and flexibility to perform their missions in this airspace that provides provisions for scalability. The Discovery and Synchronization Service (DSS) will be a cornerstone of the HAO ecosystem, enabling the effective sharing of critical airspace data, including operational intent, aircraft trajectories, and airspace usage among various stakeholders and operators. The DSS architecture addresses these challenges with a distributed, decentralized, and interoperable system that facilitates seamless integration across diverse airspaces. It prioritizes secure data exchange while safeguarding data ownership. This white paper presents the vision, architecture, and benefits of the DSS for HAO, underscoring its potential to streamline operations, reduce redundancies, and establish a foundation for safe and efficient airspace management.

HAO↗
NASA NTRS2004

Transportation Network Topologies

The existing U.S. hub-and-spoke air transportation system is reaching saturation. Major aspects of the current system, such as capacity, safety, mobility, customer satisfaction, security, communications, and ecological effects, require improvements. The changing dynamics - increased presence of general aviation, unmanned autonomous vehicles, military aircraft in civil airspace as part of homeland defense - contributes to growing complexity of airspace. The system has proven remarkably resistant to change. NASA Langley Research Center and the National Institute of Aerospace conducted a workshop on Transportation Network Topologies on 9-10 December 2003 in Williamsburg, Virginia. The workshop aimed to examine the feasibility of traditional methods for complex system analysis and design as well as potential novel alternatives in application to transportation systems, identify state-of-the-art models and methods, conduct gap analysis, and thus to lay a foundation for establishing a focused research program in complex systems applied to air transportation.

Alexandrov, Natalia↗
NASA NTRS2017

Millimeter Wave Systems for Airports and Short-Range Aviation Communications: A Survey of the Current Channel Models at mmWave Frequencies

Millimeter-wave (mmWave) communications will play a key role in enhancing the throughput, reliability, and security of next generation wireless networks. These advancements are achieved through the large bandwidth available in this band and through the use of highly directional links that will be used to overcome the large pathloss at these frequencies. Although the terrestrial application of mmWave systems is advancing at a rapid pace, the use of mmWave communication systems in aviation systems or airports is still in its infancy. This can be attributed to the challenges related to radio technology and lack of development, and characterization of mmWave wireless channels for the aviation field and the airport environment. Consequently, one of our goals is to develop methodologies that support mmWave air to ground links, and various links at airports, by applying new localization schemes that allow for application of highly directional links that can be deployed over longer distances despite the high path loss at mmWave frequencies. However, a very thorough understanding of the mmWave channel models are needed to enable such new applications. To this end, in this paper, we present a survey of the current channel models in the mmWave band. The 3-dimensional statistical channel model is also reviewed and its parameters and typical characteristics for this model are identified and computed through simulation for the Boise metropolitan area.

air traffic management↗
NASA NTRS2014

Control and Non-Payload Communications Generation 1 Prototype Radio Flight Test Report

Unmanned aircraft (UA) represent a new capability that will provide a variety of services in the Government (public) and commercial (civil) aviation sectors. The growth of this potential industry has not yet been realized because of the lack of a common understanding of what is required to safely operate Unmanned Aircraft Systems in the National Airspace System (UAS in the NAS). The desire and ability to fly UA is of increasing urgency. The application of UA to perform national security, defense, scientific, and emergency management are driving the critical need for less restrictive access by UA to the NAS. Existing Federal Aviation Regulations, procedures, and technologies do not allow routine UA access to the NAS. Access to the NAS is hampered by challenges such as the lack of an onboard pilot to see and avoid other aircraft; the ability of a single pilot or operator to control multiple UA; the reliance on command and control (C2) links; the altitudes, speeds, and duration at which the aircraft fly; and the wide variation in UA size and performance. NASA is working with other Government agencies to provide solutions that reduce technical barriers and make access to the NAS routine. This goal will be accomplished through system-level integration of key concepts, technologies, or procedures and through demonstrations of these integrated capabilities in an operationally relevant environment. This project provides an opportunity to transition the acquired empirical data and knowledge to the Federal Aviation Administration and other stakeholders to help them define the requirements for routine UA access to the NAS.Radio communications channels for UA are currently managed through exceptions and use either Department of Defense frequencies for line-of-sight (LOS) and satellite-based communications links, low-power LOS links in amateur bands, or unlicensed Industrial/Scientific/Medical (ISM) frequencies. None of these frequency bands are designated for safety and regularity of flight. Only recently has radiofrequency (RF) spectrum been allocated by the International Telecommunications Union specifically for commercial UA C2, LOS communication (L-Band: 960 to 1164 MHz, and C-Band: 5030 to 5091 MHz). The safe and efficient integration of UA into the NAS requires the use of protected RF spectrum allocations and a new data communications system that is both secure and scalable to accommodate the potential growth of these new aircraft. Data communications for UA-referred to as control and non-payload communications (CNPC)-will be used to exchange information between a UA and a ground station (GS) to ensure safe, reliable, and effective UA flight operation. The focus of this effort is on validating and allocating new RF spectrum and data link communications to enable civil UA integration into the NAS. Through a cost-sharing cooperative agreement with Rockwell Collins, Inc., the NASA Glenn Research Center is exploring and performing the necessary development steps to realize a prototype UA CNPC system. These activities include investigating signal waveforms and access techniques, developing representative CNPC radio hardware, and executing relevant testing and validation activities. There is no intent to manufacture the CNPC end product, rather the goals are to study, demonstrate, and validate a typical CNPC system that will allow safe and efficient communications within the L-Band and C-Band spectrum allocations. The system is addressing initial "seed" requirements from RTCA, Inc., Special Committee 203 (SC-203) and is on a path to Federal Aviation Administration certification. This report provides results from the flight testing campaign of the Rockwell Collins Generation 1 prototype radio, referred hereafter as the "radio." The radio sets operate within the 960- to 977-MHz frequency band with both air and ground radios using identical hardware. Flight tests involved one aircraft and one GS. Results include discussion of aircraft flight paths and associated radio performance.

Shalkhauser, Kurt A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Flying Unmanned Aircraft: A Pilot's Perspective

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is pioneering various Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) technologies and procedures which may enable routine access to the National Airspace System (NAS), with an aim for Next Gen NAS. These tools will aid in the development of technologies and integrated capabilities that will enable high value missions for science, security, and defense, and open the door to low-cost, extreme-duration, stratospheric flight. A century of aviation evolution has resulted in accepted standards and best practices in the design of human-machine interfaces, the displays and controls of which serve to optimize safe and efficient flight operations and situational awareness. The current proliferation of non-standard, aircraft-specific flight crew interfaces in UAS, coupled with the inherent limitations of operating UAS without in-situ sensory input and feedback (aural, visual, and vestibular cues), has increased the risk of mishaps associated with the design of the "cockpit." The examples of current non- or sub- standard design features range from "annoying" and "inefficient", to those that are difficult to manipulate or interpret in a timely manner, as well as to those that are "burdensome" and "unsafe." A concerted effort is required to establish best practices and standards for the human-machine interfaces, for the pilot as well as the air traffic controller. In addition, roles, responsibilities, knowledge, and skill sets are subject to redefining the terms, "pilot" and "air traffic controller", with respect to operating UAS, especially in the Next-Gen NAS. The knowledge, skill sets, training, and qualification standards for UAS operations must be established, and reflect the aircraft-specific human-machine interfaces and control methods. NASA s recent experiences flying its MQ-9 Ikhana in the NAS for extended duration, has enabled both NASA and the FAA to realize the full potential for UAS, as well as understand the implications of current limitations. Ikhana is a Predator-B/Reaper UAS, built by General Atomics, Aeronautical Systems, Inc., and modified for research. Since 2007, the aircraft has been flown seasonally with a wing-mounted pod containing an infrared scanner, utilized to provide real-time wildfire geo-location data to various fire-fighting agencies in the western U.S. The multi-agency effort included an extensive process to obtain flight clearance from the FAA to operate under special provisions, given that UAS in general do not fully comply with current airspace regulations (e.g. sense-and-avoid requirements).

Pestana, Mark E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation and Modeling Concepts for Secure Airspace Operations

With the expected advent of new entrants including Unmanned Aerial Systems, Commercial Launch Vehicles and Urban Air Mobility aircraft, the future United States National Airspace System will have to evolve to include their operations along with the current commercial, general aviation and military operations. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Federal Aviation Administration are working together to provide a vision for aviation operations in the future—2045 and beyond. Their National Airspace System Horizons initiative seeks to provide stakeholders a list of operational scenarios and technologies, concepts and strategies needed for supporting that vision. They have identified cybersecurity as one of the seven strategic interest areas for realizing this vision. Consequently, NASA is studying cyber resiliency for secure airspace operations. This paper examines cyber security vulnerabilities of Urban Air Mobility operations. While there are many pathways to attack a cyber physical system such as Urban Air Mobility, their effect is expressed in modification or corruption of data/information used for controlling vehicles and making operational decisions. The paper describes cybersecurity technologies of Encryption, Blockchain, Virtual Information Fabric Infrastructure, Trusted Platform Module and Anomaly Detection for protecting the data, thus, improving the cyber resiliency of the current and future air traffic management system.

Cybersecurity↗
NASA NTRS2005

NASA's Research in Aircraft Vulnerability Mitigation

Since its inception in 1958, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) role in civil aeronautics has been to develop high-risk, high-payoff technologies to meet critical national aviation challenges. Following the events of Sept. 11, 2001, NASA recognized that it now shared the responsibility for improving homeland security. The NASA Strategic Plan was modified to include requirements to enable a more secure air transportation system by investing in technologies and collaborating with other agencies, industry, and academia. NASA is conducting research to develop and advance innovative and commercially viable technologies that will reduce the vulnerability of aircraft to threats or hostile actions, and identify and inform users of potential vulnerabilities in a timely manner. Presented in this paper are research plans and preliminary status for mitigating the effects of damage due to direct attacks on civil transport aircraft. The NASA approach to mitigation includes: preventing loss of an aircraft due to a hit from man-portable air defense systems; developing fuel system technologies that prevent or minimize in-flight vulnerability to small arms or other projectiles; providing protection from electromagnetic energy attacks by detecting directed energy threats to aircraft and on/off-board systems; and minimizing the damage due to high-energy attacks (explosions and fire) by developing advanced lightweight, damage-resistant composites and structural concepts. An approach to preventing aircraft from being used as weapons of mass destruction will also be discussed.

Allen, Cheryl L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Constraint and Flight Rule Management for Space Mission Operations

The exploration of space is one of the most fascinating domains to study from a human factors perspective. Like other complex work domains such as aviation (Pritchett and Kim, 2008), air traffic management (Durso and Manning, 2008), health care (Morrow, North, and Wickens, 2006), homeland security (Cooke and Winner, 2008), and vehicle control (Lee, 2006), space exploration is a large-scale sociotechnical work domain characterized by complexity, dynamism, uncertainty, and risk in real-time operational contexts (Perrow, 1999; Woods et al, 1994). Nearly the entire gamut of human factors issues - for example, human-automation interaction (Sheridan and Parasuraman, 2006), telerobotics, display and control design (Smith, Bennett, and Stone, 2006), usability, anthropometry (Chaffin, 2008), biomechanics (Marras and Radwin, 2006), safety engineering, emergency operations, maintenance human factors, situation awareness (Tenney and Pew, 2006), crew resource management (Salas et al., 2006), methods for cognitive work analysis (Bisantz and Roth, 2008) and the like -- are applicable to astronauts, mission control, operational medicine, Space Shuttle manufacturing and assembly operations, and space suit designers as they are in other work domains (e.g., Bloomberg, 2003; Bos et al, 2006; Brooks and Ince, 1992; Casler and Cook, 1999; Jones, 1994; McCurdy et al, 2006; Neerincx et aI., 2006; Olofinboba and Dorneich, 2005; Patterson, Watts-Perotti and Woods, 1999; Patterson and Woods, 2001; Seagull et ai, 2007; Sierhuis, Clancey and Sims, 2002). The human exploration of space also has unique challenges of particular interest to human factors research and practice. This chapter provides an overview of those issues and reports on some of the latest research results as well as the latest challenges still facing the field.

Barreiro, J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Human Factors in Space Exploration

The exploration of space is one of the most fascinating domains to study from a human factors perspective. Like other complex work domains such as aviation (Pritchett and Kim, 2008), air traffic management (Durso and Manning, 2008), health care (Morrow, North, and Wickens, 2006), homeland security (Cooke and Winner, 2008), and vehicle control (Lee, 2006), space exploration is a large-scale sociotechnical work domain characterized by complexity, dynamism, uncertainty, and risk in real-time operational contexts (Perrow, 1999; Woods et ai, 1994). Nearly the entire gamut of human factors issues - for example, human-automation interaction (Sheridan and Parasuraman, 2006), telerobotics, display and control design (Smith, Bennett, and Stone, 2006), usability, anthropometry (Chaffin, 2008), biomechanics (Marras and Radwin, 2006), safety engineering, emergency operations, maintenance human factors, situation awareness (Tenney and Pew, 2006), crew resource management (Salas et aI., 2006), methods for cognitive work analysis (Bisantz and Roth, 2008) and the like -- are applicable to astronauts, mission control, operational medicine, Space Shuttle manufacturing and assembly operations, and space suit designers as they are in other work domains (e.g., Bloomberg, 2003; Bos et al, 2006; Brooks and Ince, 1992; Casler and Cook, 1999; Jones, 1994; McCurdy et ai, 2006; Neerincx et aI., 2006; Olofinboba and Dorneich, 2005; Patterson, Watts-Perotti and Woods, 1999; Patterson and Woods, 2001; Seagull et ai, 2007; Sierhuis, Clancey and Sims, 2002). The human exploration of space also has unique challenges of particular interest to human factors research and practice. This chapter provides an overview of those issues and reports on sorne of the latest research results as well as the latest challenges still facing the field.

FROM↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing a Cybersecurity Architecture for Extensible Traffic Management (xTM)

This paper explores the development of a cybersecurity architecture tailored for Extensible Traffic Management (xTM) to address emerging challenges in managing diverse aerial vehicles within the National Airspace System (NAS). Driven by technological advances and the rise of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), urban air mobility (UAM), and high-altitude traffic (ETM), the NAS is undergoing a paradigm shift. Traditional air traffic management, reliant on traditional Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) control, will give way to decentralized coordination among autonomous and semi-autonomous systems. The proposed xTM Security Architecture, designed as a high-level framework, focuses on ensuring the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of data and operations in this evolving ecosystem. Utilizing threat modeling, the research identifies potential risks across key flight phases, operations and use cases to offer security control recommendations. Key objectives include analyzing interactions between novel airspace entrants and existing NAS traffic, cataloging vulnerabilities, and developing mitigative strategies to ensure safety, operational stability, and secure data exchanges. This research lays the groundwork for regulatory and industry adaptation, providing critical insights into managing cybersecurity risks in this complex, multi-domain environment.

UAM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cybersecurity Considerations for Hydrogen Infrastructure in Airport Environments

This report explores key cybersecurity concerns and best practices within environments that serve as reference points for the development of hydrogen fueling infrastructure for aviation. This cybersecurity analysis leverages prior NREL studies: 1) hydrogen fueling station component validation to identify vulnerabilities and failure events documented in physical equipment, and 2) electric aircraft charging infrastructure analysis to explore primary cybersecurity vulnerabilities. It reviews the criticality of digitized technologies in sustaining hydrogen fuel production, storage, and fueling systems, noting cybersecurity concerns that are universal to power systems and industrial control systems in general. In considering cybersecurity vulnerabilities within a future landscape of hydrogen energy for aviation applications, a reference architecture was intended to reveal the points of connection between assets and the potential sensors that are vulnerable to manipulation in the event of compromised access or communication within a SCADA system. A generalized reference architecture can help stakeholders, engineers, or strategists understand connections, criticalities, and standard practices when it comes to designing and planning for new systems. There are several gaps to account for in assessing the future of hydrogen production, storage, and fueling for aviation. Engaging stakeholders, including aircraft manufacturers, electric utilities, site property owners, and local communities, will inform decision-making around site structure, operations, and resources for future hydrogen fueling infrastructure to understand operational needs and cybersecurity awareness. Cybersecurity mitigation strategy must consider physical attack vectors that emerge with the integration of hydrogen systems into existing airport security requirements. The cybersecurity risk assessment contained in this report is an entry point into potential future granular-level analyses to be conducted as part of hazard and risk assessments for safe aviation hydrogen infrastructure, determining how the scale of hydrogen fuel infrastructure for aviation impacts the volume of cyber attack vectors, and what, if any, are the vulnerabilities associated with different types of on-board hydrogen systems. In this nascent development phase, assessing how best to integrate cybersecurity practices into an evolving U.S. aviation landscape provides critical insights into building increased awareness and stakeholder engagement to support a cyber-resilient infrastructure.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2023

Aviation 2072: Scenario Planning for Wicked Problems

The world is changing rapidly. And with it, so are the potential futures for humanity. Many of these potential futures pose hidden threats, while others offer new opportunities for aviation and the broader aerospace community. To mitigate these risks and capitalize on opportunities, organizations must work to deeply understand these potential future scenarios and uncover any underlying drivers. Organizations will be more equipped and informed when making strategic investment decisions by better understanding these threats, opportunities, and drivers . The future scenarios and their threats and opportunities described in this paper were identified through a series of extensive brainstorming workshops, collectively titled MADNESS (Mapping for Aviation Driven by Needs Emergence and Satiating Society). These workshops engaged NASA civil servants and contractors with diverse backgrounds through a facilitated process of future scenario development and critique. The participants were led through exercises focused on a time horizon spanning from 2022 to 2072 and on problems that aviation might solve and or create during this period. From the broad results, two patterns of critical uncertainty emerged: “availability” (scarcity versus abundance) and “transparency” (openness versus security and privacy). The successful iteration and ideation across the MADNESS workshops also suggests a repeatable mechanism for strategic risk exploration across a variety of NASA and industry stakeholders.

Mapping↗