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A distributed voltage inference framework for cyber-physical attacks detection and localization in active distribution grids

The transition to active distribution grids with real-time monitoring and control depends on the proliferation of advanced communication networks and devices. This paradigm shift towards a cyber-physical architecture also introduces new vulnerabilities for adversaries to exploit and launch sophisticated cyber-physical attacks targeting grid observability. Current research highlights the challenges in distinguishing attacks on voltage phasor or nodal injection measurements and isolating multi-source attack locations in a multiphase distribution grid. The attack detection and localization methods in literature face accuracy issues, applications across diverse attack scenarios, or scalability limits. Here, to bridge these gaps, this paper proposes a distributed Voltage Inference framework for real-time detection and localization of cyber-physical attacks, addressing scalability, adaptability, and accuracy challenges in state-of-the-art methods. The proposed methodology leverages the distributed nature of the Voltage Inference framework through a two-step process of prediction and correction, together with a tractable graph partitioning approach, providing a reliable solution to identify compromised measurement sources and facilitate isolation. Extensive testing on IEEE 13 and 123-node distribution feeders underscores the algorithm’s efficacy, enhancing the security and resilience of active distribution grids against evolving cyber threats. Additionally, Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) implementation validates the proposed strategy’s practical applicability in real-world scenarios.

active distribution grids↗

Demonstration of Utility Managed Smart Charging for Multiple Benefit Streams (Final Report)

In the summer of 2020, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) awarded funding to Exelon’s Maryland utilities—Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE), Delmarva Power & Light (DPL), and Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco)—to implement the Smart Charge Management (SCM) pilot. This initiative aimed to design and implement managed electric vehicle (EV) charging strategies, evaluate the grid impacts of EV charging, and assess the utilities' ability to control EV load based on real-time grid conditions. The SCM pilot explored four aspects for continued improvement: (1) cybersecurity and managed charging functionality testing of two vendor platforms—WeaveGrid (telematics-based) and Shell Recharge Solutions (network-based)—which pursued charge scheduling and optimization through distinct approaches; (2) an analysis by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) modeling team of three potential SCM enrollment scenarios within BGE and Pepco service territories over the next decade to assess future scalability; (3) employing customer engagement strategies, including surveys and a responsive pricing approach; and (4) the launch and implementation of pilots in Exelon’s Maryland territories in collaboration with WeaveGrid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Technology Strategy Assessment: Findings from Storage Innovations 2030 Bidirectional Hydrogen Storage

Hydrogen is the most common element in the universe, comprising nearly 75% of all normal matter, and it has been used by scientists for centuries, but it was not fully recognized as an element until 1766, when it was isolated by Henry Cavendish. Early work focused on the generation of hydrogen through the oxidation of metals in water, which released hydrogen gas. Hydrogen’s lighter-than-air and flammable properties were immediately used in engines, zeppelins, and as feedstock for a wide variety of chemical reactions. Several approaches were developed for the production of hydrogen with the most common being associated with the production and conversion of hydrocarbon-based fuels. Coal gasification, steam methane reforming, and other reformation processes provide the majority of current hydrogen production due to the relatively low cost of hydrogen produced through these processes. More than 95% of hydrogen production is used for industrial processes rather than energy storage. To facilitate affordable decarbonization of these industrial processes and to advance the use of hydrogen as a fuel in transportation, DOE launched the Hydrogen Shot as part of the Energy Earthshots Initiative. The goal of the Hydrogen Shot is to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1/kg of clean hydrogen production within one decade (known as the “1 1 1” goal). This is distinct from the Long-Duration Storage Shot, which is the primary focus of this report; however, it is intrinsically linked to bidirectional hydrogen storage. Several important chemical synthesis processes are dependent upon hydrogen, and the production and use of hydrogen is generally driven by its connection to one of these markets. For example, ammonia is one of the most highly produced chemicals in the world and it depends chiefly on hydrogen. Ammonia is primarily used for agricultural fertilizer and is considered to be largely responsible for a doubling of agricultural production per unit of land over the last century. Another one of hydrogen’s primary uses is as a catalyst in petroleum refining during the desulfurization process. Beyond chemical production, hydrogen is used as a reductant in the production of steel and has been demonstrated as a substitute for metallurgical coal in the production of raw iron. It is even used in the hydrogenation reaction for food products to create more shelf-stable semi-solid fats. However, while hydrogen is produced on the order of 100 million metric tons/year globally to feed these industries, more than 95% of hydrogen is produced from hydrocarbons that emit CO2 during the process. Conversely, electrolysis is a process by which electricity is used to separate hydrogen and oxygen in water molecules, usually across a membrane. Hydrogen production via electrolysis lowers the carbon intensity of produced hydrogen when coupled with low-carbon electricity. Currently, global electrolysis capacity is on the order of 1 GW, which equates to about 500 metric tons/day of hydrogen production. To support large-scale industrial decarbonization, capacity will likely need to increase by two to three orders of magnitude. Electrolysis technology is broadly separated into groups that are defined by the electrolyte used, with further subdivision based on the operating characteristics. The majority of commercial electrolyzer systems are based around three main technology groups: liquid alkaline, proton exchange membrane, and solid oxide. Liquid Alkaline (LA) electrolysis is the oldest, most mature, least expensive, and most common commercial technology, with 400 plants in operation by 1902. Its hydrogen output is low relative to the size of the system due to a low current density. LA electrolysis utilizes a liquid potassium hydroxide solution as the electrolyte. Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis (also known as polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis), described in 1960, relies on an acid-impregnated polymer membrane as the electrolyte and typically offers three to six times higher hydrogen production per unit cell area than LA electrolysis. Solid oxide electrolysis, or high-temperature electrolysis, utilizes a ceramic cell as the electrolyte and operates on steam rather than liquid water, enabling electrical efficiencies of more than 90%, which is up from 60% with PEM. Two pre-commercial electrolyzer technologies to note are alkaline exchange membrane (AEM) and proton-conducting solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC). AEM potentially has the advantages of both LA and PEM technologies in that it is able to use low-cost materials like LA but with the ability to operate at higher output pressures with a smaller footprint like PEM. Proton-conducting SOEC is similar to commercial SOEC, which uses an oxide-conducting ceramic; however, it uses a proton-conducting ceramic that has the potential to operate at lower temperatures and has lower capital costs. Each of these technologies is experiencing a rapid improvement in performance and a reduction in installed cost, and each appears to be well suited to specific applications. Besides differences in the type of electrolyzer used, the main difference in the architecture of bidirectional hydrogen systems is how the hydrogen is stored. Currently, the most cost-effective way to store large amounts of hydrogen gas is underground, such as in large salt caverns that have been hollowed out. These salt caverns are geographically concentrated in small portions of the United States and are not generally near large metropolitan areas; however, other subsurface architectures are being investigated to expand this reach. A more widely deployable option is aboveground pressurized tanks. These systems are about 10 times as expensive because of the materials and safety margins required to hold hydrogen at high pressures. A third option is using materials-based storage, such as liquid organic hydrogen carriers. By reversibly attaching the produced hydrogen to other molecules, it can be stored at near atmospheric pressure and room temperature. This has the potential to reduce the material cost of storage but may result in a reduction in the efficiency of the process because there are both hydrogen uptake and release processes. While materials-based storage has not been used extensively for large-scale hydrogen storage in the past, there is currently significant activity regarding developing materials and processes for use in large-scale hydrogen storage applications. Electrolysis-produced hydrogen offers an unusual opportunity for energy storage applications. Unlike more conventional energy storage approaches, such as batteries, which operate entirely within electrical markets, hydrogen is a valuable product beyond the electric market and can be directed to the most lucrative use. Hydrogen also can be directly converted back to electricity using either a fuel cell or turbine, or it can be sold to other markets, such as chemical synthesis, steel production, or even export. In this way, excess electricity can be upgraded to the most valuable product. Finally, its use can be actively managed between multiple off-takers; for example, local hydrogen storage can provide a specific amount of stored electricity and any excess can be exported to ammonia production. This flexibility is amplified by the fact that hydrogen storage has fully decoupled power and energy components, which allows for affordable scaling options. Together, this allows a substantial amount of creativity to enable the economic utilization of variable power resources while supporting decarbonization of the industry.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Generation IV Benchmarking of TRISO Fuel Performance Models Under Accident Conditions Final Report

The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) is a co-operative international endeavor of fourteen members organized to carry out the research and development needed to establish the feasibility and performance capabilities of the next generation nuclear energy systems. GIF selected six reactor technologies, amongst which is the Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) that is primarily dedicated to the cogeneration of electricity and hydrogen. The technical basis for VHTR is the tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel, the graphite as the core structure, helium coolant, as well as the dedicated core layout and lower power density to removal decay heat in a natural way. At the heart of safety features of the VHTR concept lie the TRISO fuel particles that are designed to keep their structural integrity and retain fission products at temperatures up to 1600°C. As part as the design and future operation of VHTRs, a key aspect is the accurate prediction of fuel performance under irradiation and accident conditions. Modeling and simulation allow prediction of TRISO fuel behavior when subject to neutron flux and in high temperature accident scenarios. The refinement of the fuel performance models and codes is performed by comparison to in-pile and out-of-pile experimental data that reproduce the expected irradiation conditions in high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). Historically, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) developed a benchmark dedicated to the validation of predictive methods for fuel and fission product behavior through the Coordinated Research Program CRP-2 (IAEA, 1997). CRP-2 was later updated to cover fuel fabrication, quality assurance, irradiation performance, safety testing, and spent fuel. The scope of the resulting CRP-6 benchmarks focused on HTGR fuel performance and fission product release (IAEA, 2012). Taking advantage of additional TRISO fuel fabrication, irradiation, and safety testing campaigns, GIF launched a Generation IV Benchmarking of TRISO Fuel Performance Models under Accident Conditions in late 2015. This GIF benchmark is a three-year program steered by Idaho National Laboratory (INL, USA). The other participants include the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA, Japan) and the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI, Korea). The objectives of the benchmark are to: follow on the IAEA CRP benchmarks, (2) model fission product release under accident conditions, (3) compare results obtained by the fuel performance modeling codes of the benchmark participants, and (4) compare these code predictions to experimental data. Safety tests chosen for modeling include the first and second experiments of the Advanced Gas Reactor program (AGR-1 and AGR-2) and the High Flux Reactor (HFR) EU1bis experiment. This report presents the results obtained by the three research institutions using their respective fuel performance modeling codes. Comparisons of the corresponding fission product release predictions are made with experimental data from AGR-1, AGR-2, and HFR-EU1bis. The benchmark results show good agreements between all participants but also show a general trend of over-prediction of the experimental release data, which is mainly attributed to the use of over-estimated diffusion coefficients.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sustainability, Scalability, and Resiliency of the Town of Innisfil Mobility-on-Demand Experiment: Preliminary Results, Analyses, and Lessons Learned

In 2017, the town of Innisfil, Ontario, launched Innisfil Transit in partnership with Uber, a transportation network company, to provide a subsidized on-demand public mobility service as an alternative to investing in a new fixed-route bus service. The performance of Innisfil Transit is documented in a 2021 Ryerson University report by Sweet, Mitra, and Benaroya, which shows greater cost effectiveness of the mobility provided over the proposed bus alternative. This paper expands on those findings by assessing Innisfil Transit with respect to sustainability, scalability, and resiliency. First, we quantify the energy and emissions of this program relative to traditional transit and driving alone across varying powertrains. We then characterize a conservative first-order estimate of the percentage of US communities that fall within a similar spatial-demographic tier as Innisfil. Replicability also hinges on service cost and performance in comparison to average values for low-density transit in the US. Lastly, most transit agencies experienced a significant drop in demand (as much as 90%) with slowly rebounding ridership since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The resiliency of the Innisfil program to the pressures induced by the pandemic is examined in comparison to other transit operations. The lessons learned across these three dimensions complement prior work to better understand the efficiency and sustainability of on-demand public mobility service for low-density communities like Innisfil.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Sustainability, Scalability and Resiliency of the Town of Innisfil Mobility-on-Demand Experiment: Preliminary Results, Analyses, and Lessons Learned: Preprint

In 2017, the Town of Innisfil, Ontario launched Innisfil Transit in partnership with Uber, a transportation network company, to provide a subsidized on-demand public mobility service as an alternative to investing in a new fixed-route bus service. The performance of Innisfil Transit is documented in a 2021 Ryerson University report which shows greater cost effectiveness of the mobility provided over the proposed bus alternative (Sweet, Mitra, and Benaroya 2021). This paper expands on those findings by assessing Innisfil Transit with respect to sustainability, scalability, and resiliency. First, we quantify the energy and emissions of this program relative to traditional transit and driving alone across varying powertrains. We then characterize a conservative first-order estimate of the percentage of US communities that fall within a similar spatial-demographic tier as Innisfil. Replicability also hinges on service cost and performance in comparison to average values for low-density transit in the US. Lastly, most transit agencies experienced a significant drop in demand (as much as 90%) with slowly rebounding ridership since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The resiliency of the Innisfil program to the pressures induced by the pandemic is examined in comparison to other transit operations. The lessons learned across these three dimensions complement prior work to better understand the efficiency and sustainability of on-demand public mobility service for low-density communities like Innisfil.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Development and Bench-Scale Testing of a Novel Biphasic Solvent-Enabled Absorption Process for Post-Combustion Carbon Capture (Final Technical Report)

A new class of biphasic solvents was developed, and the concept of the enabled carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) absorption process was tested for post-combustion carbon capture in our previous lab-scale research. The primary goals of this project were to advance the development of the novel biphasic CO 2 absorption process (BiCAP) and validate its technical advantages by testing the integrated technology at a 40 kWe bench-scale with actual coal-derived flue gas in a power plant environment. The project was led by the University of Illinois at Urban-Champaign (UIUC), and Trimeric Corporation served as a sub-awardee providing support in basic design and techno-economic studies. To achieve the project goals and objectives, solvent management studies, process modeling and optimization, bench-scale equipment design, construction and testing, and technical, economic and environmental assessments have been conducted. The two top-performing biphasic solvents developed in our previous research were used in this project. Biphasic solvent emissions and control were investigated in the laboratory. The emissions of the biphasic solvents from the absorber were comparable to or lower than the reference 30 wt% monoethanolamine (MEA) solution, while they could be more effectively removed in the water wash column. Lab-scale testing of solvent degradation reclamation has revealed that vacuum distillation was feasible for biphasic solvent reclamation. Aspen Plus models were used to optimize the BiCAP, and a CO 2 stripping configuration introducing a secondary cold solvent feed to the stripper was identified to be the most energy efficient. A 40 kWe bench-scale, integrated BiCAP system was successfully designed, fabricated, and installed at the UIUC’s Abbott Power Plant. Parametric testing with synthetic flue gas has demonstrated that the two biphasic solvents required a more than 40% lower heat duty for CO 2 desorption as compared to the reference MEA tested on the same bench-scale skid. Slipstream testing with actual coal flue gas for a total of 31 days in two test campaigns has further demonstrated stable operation of the bench-scale skid. During the first campaign targeting 90% CO 2 removal, the heat duty averaged at 2,183 MJ/tonne of CO 2 captured and during the second campaign targeting 95% removal, the heat duty averaged at 2,450 MJ/tonne of CO 2 captured. A techno-economic analysis has revealed that for integration of the BiCAP into a 650-MWe pulverized coal-fired power plant, the parasitic power loss was reduced by ~20%, and the cost of CO 2 capture was reduced by ~21% ($36.3/tonne on a December 2018 dollar basis) compared to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s baseline Case B12B. As progression from this bench-scale development effort, a new project “Engineering-Scale Testing of the Biphasic Solvent Based CO 2 Absorption Capture Technology at a Covanta Waste-to-Energy Facility” was awarded by the DOE, launched in February 2023, to allow the team to further test the technology and demonstrate its technical and economic advantages at a pilot scale.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Sustainable Aviation Fuel State-of-Industry Report: Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids Pathway

Climate change is a pressing issue that requires immediate and decisive action to ensure a sustainable future. To reduce CO 2 emissions and speed up the transition to net-zero aviation, the Biden administration has launched the "Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) Grand Challenge" to scale up production of SAF. The challenge aims to achieve 20% reduction in aviation emissions by producing 3 billion gallons per year (BGPY) of SAF by 2030 and to meet 100% of aviation fuel demand by producing 35 BGPY of SAF by 2050. In this report, we provide an overview of the current state of the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) SAF industry, guided by the perspectives of the interviewed experts. Currently, the HEFA pathway is the only commercially deployed method to produce significant amounts of SAF. As a result, SAF produced via the HEFA pathway is expected to make the largest contribution to achieving the 2030 production target and play a key role in boosting and establishing the SAF market. Announced SAF's total capacity, including alcohol-to-jet, FT, and power-to-liquid facilities, is expected to reach 2 BGPY by 2030 (1), with the expected from HEFA. Total HEFA capacity, including construction and planned projects, is expected to reach about 9 BGPY by 2030; if completely executed, this would contribute to renewable diesel (RD) and SAF. The production ratio of SAF and RD will depend on market conditions, incentives, and the capabilities of facilities. While some stakeholders believe that the 2030 goal may be achieved solely via HEFA, others believe that overly relying on HEFA may be detrimental to the development of other necessary pathways to meet 2050 goals. Our conclusion is that the HEFA pathway alone will not be sufficient to reach the 2030 target. It is crucial to implement additional pathways to reach the goal. This report conducts a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the HEFA SAF value chain. Our aim is to provide current status of the industry and to identify potential challenges that could hinder the commercial production and use of SAF produced through the HEFA pathway. We have had extensive discussions, consultations, and collaborative sessions with stakeholders in the HEFA SAF value chain, including HEFA feedstocks, potential volume of HEFA SAF, economic and sustainability metrics when compared to petroleum, and assessment of the HEFA SAF industry's ability to grow and contribute to achieving the "SAF Grand Challenge." Since the HEFA pathway produces both SAF and RD, this report compares both pathways: HEFA to SAF and HEFA to RD.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Potential Availability of Alternative Fuel to Supply Maritime Activities in Pacific Northwest Ports

The international shipping sector represented 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 (Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy 2024). International shipping has been classified as a difficult-to-decarbonize industry (IRENA 2024). In an effort to drive decarbonization, the U.S. Department of Energy has partnered with Mission Innovation to co-lead the Zero-Emission Shipping Mission, which launched in 2021(Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy 2021). In addition, the U.S. Department of State partnered with Norway to launch the Green Shipping Challenge in 2022 (Office of the Spokesperson 2022b). As part of the ZESM and Green Shipping Challenge, the United States is collaborating with the Republic of Korea (ROK) to develop a green shipping corridor (U.S. Mission Korea 2023). The United States and ROK have conducted a pre-feasibility study as the first step in developing a green shipping corridor between the countries. The ports included in the study are Seattle, Tacoma, and Everette in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Busan, Ulsan, and Masan in ROK. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's role in the study was to analyze the availability and technical potential of alternative marine fuels in proximity to U.S. PNW ports. The findings show most of the existing alternative fuel capacity within the region is from renewable diesel, biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel facilities. The largest growth in fuel capacity in the region by 2030 is projected to be in renewable diesel and hydrogen. The overall technical readiness of non-drop-in alternative fuel production and conversion technologies is more developed than alternative-fueled ships and associated fueling infrastructure. However, much of the fuel capacity in the region is comprised of drop-in fuels, making it technically possible to use existing infrastructure for transporting and bunkering to the existing fleet. Data to inform regional alternative fuel quantity estimations were collected from an extensive review of databases, reports, announcements, and other publicly available resources. A maturity index and sector competition factor were applied to announced fuel projects to determine the quantity of alternative fuel available to the marine sector in the region by 2030. Demand data were collected from fuel bunkering logs covering the PNW seaports (State of Washington 2021). Both supply and demand data were converted to very-low sulfur fuel oil gallon equivalents (VLSFO-GE) for better comparison. Qualitative data were gathered through interviews with stakeholders, project developers, and industry experts. Total alternative fuel capacity available to the marine sector in the region is estimated to be 824 million VLSFO-GE per year by 2030. This is sufficient to cover the requirements of a green shipping corridor between the United States and ROK. The findings from this report are being used to inform detailed feasibility studies for several U.S. PNW -ROK green shipping corridors. Updates from the U.S. PNW - ROK feasibility studies will continue to be published on Mission Innovation's green corridor tracking website (Zero Emission Shipping Mission, n.d.). In addition, this report has helped to inform further work on shipping decarbonization in the U.S. PNW, including the Pacific Northwest to Alaska Green Corridor focused on cruise vessels.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗