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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

A Fast Goal Recognition Technique Based on Interaction Estimates

Goal Recognition is the task of inferring an actor's goals given some or all of the actor's observed actions. There is considerable interest in Goal Recognition for use in intelligent personal assistants, smart environments, intelligent tutoring systems, and monitoring user's needs. In much of this work, the actor's observed actions are compared against a generated library of plans. Recent work by Ramirez and Geffner makes use of AI planning to determine how closely a sequence of observed actions matches plans for each possible goal. For each goal, this is done by comparing the cost of a plan for that goal with the cost of a plan for that goal that includes the observed actions. This approach yields useful rankings, but is impractical for real-time goal recognition in large domains because of the computational expense of constructing plans for each possible goal. In this paper, we introduce an approach that propagates cost and interaction information in a plan graph, and uses this information to estimate goal probabilities. We show that this approach is much faster, but still yields high quality results.

gola recognition↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Informing New Concepts for UAS and Autonomous System Safety Management using Disaster Management and First Responder Scenarios

As emerging flight operations become more prevalent and increasingly automated and distributed, the capabilities for managing safety of vehicles and operations will also need to evolve. To address this challenge, the National Academies has envisioned an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) capability for a wide range of aviation operations including current commercial operations as well as new entrants envisioned with advanced air mobility (AAM). The suite of IASMS services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) would be implemented in a federated approach and would address trends as well as individual operations. Through predictive modeling and data analysis, IASMS is envisioned to identify arising risks so that they can be mitigated, in-time, before a safety incident occurs. IASMS and its requisite set of SFCs must leverage a wide range of information to perform. To better understand these new needs, FSF worked with the aviation and humanitarian communities to develop and validate scenarios that include traditional aviation operations and UAS operations intermingled as they are deployed for disaster management and first responder (DMFR) situations. The three scenarios developed include: • Post Natural disaster response, such as a hurricane, involving multiple parties utilizing traditional aviation and UAS to support rescue operations, surveil damage, and locate survivors needing assistance. • Wildfire fighting in remote locations with traditional aircraft for transport and fire-retardant delivery combined with UAS for surveillance of fire locations as well as to track individual firefighter locations. • Medical Operations and AAM in Urban Environments including passenger-carrying helicopters and AAM vehicles, medical missions (such as transport of radio-pharmaceuticals), and other UAS delivery operations (such as the delivery of defibrillators). Each scenario was developed and validated by representatives with expertise in humanitarian operations, urban and rural emergency response, air traffic management, UAS operations, and traditional flight operations. The scenario definitions address roles and responsibilities of individual actors, the appropriate utilization of UAS, and the actions taken by those actors to appropriately manage risks associated with the mission and environment. The risks to aviation traffic and to people on the ground explored included potential risks arising from incompatibilities in calculating reference altitudes (eg, differing uses of AGL, MSL, barometric, or GPS-derived values), loss of command and control (C2) communications, rapid changes in weather and winds, and physical interference. For each risk, IASMS SFCs were postulated in the context of monitoring services, risk assessment capabilities, and identifying appropriate mitigation strategies. The identified SFC capabilities were envisioned from known services postulated for IASMS and for UTM. For these unique environments, IASMS SFCs are needed to address conditions such as hazardous payloads, micro-climates and urban canyons, and the need to keep uninvolved air traffic out of the area where DMFR operations are being conducted. The second phase of analysis focused on inferring the specific information needs and the SFCs for IASMS, utilizing a structure of 16 information classes to organize requirements. For each of the risks identified in the workshops, it was postulated what data sources would be necessary to monitor critical aspects of the risk (eg, surrounding air traffic, ground population, terrain, etc). to be directly measured as well as data that would be derived, which implies additional SFCs for different actors to understand what information would likely be exchanged between parties. For an IASMS to be effective, additional research is needed to develop the advanced algorithms that can address the increasingly autonomous and complex operations in differing environments and to develop means of identifying unknown risks. Looking at these scenarios highlighted a number of research issues. These include the ability to quickly "cordon off" airspace thru temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) or other means, developing clear definitions to enable automation-based algorithms for prioritizing operations, defining airspace density metrics, standardization of altitude reporting, and establishing a basis for safety data metrics definition and collection. This paper seeks to outline the development of an IASMS in the context of the DMFR scenarios and resulting demonstrations. Utilizing this contextual approach, NASA will generate recommendations for an assured safety framework for AAM operations that enables AAM operations to safely access the NAS.

In Time Aviation Safety Management System↗
DOE OSTI2011

Kepler Scientific Workflow Design and Execution with Contexts

A context-aware scientific workflow is a typical scientific workflow that is enhanced with context binding and awareness mechanisms. Context facilitates further configuration of the scientific workflow at runtime such that it is tuned to its environment during execution and responds intelligently based on such awareness without customized coding of the workflow. In this paper, we present a context annotation framework, which supports rapid development of context-aware scientific workflows. Context annotation enables a diverse type of actor in Kepler that may bind with different sensed environmental information as part of the actor’s regular data. Context-aware actors simplify the construction of scientific workflows that require intricate knowledge in initializing and configuring a large number of parameters to cover all different execution conditions. This paper presents the motivation, system design, implementation, and usage of context annotation in relation to the Kepler scientific workflow system.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Autonomous, Decentralized Grid Architecture: Prosumer-Based Distributed Autonomous Cyber-Physical Architecture for Ultra-Reliable Green Electricity Networks

GENI Project: Georgia Tech is developing a decentralized, autonomous, internet-like control architecture and control software system for the electric power grid. Georgia Tech’s new architecture is based on the emerging concept of electricity prosumers—economically motivated actors that can produce, consume, or store electricity. Under Georgia Tech’s architecture, all of the actors in an energy system are empowered to offer associated energy services based on their capabilities. The actors achieve their sustainability, efficiency, reliability, and economic objectives, while contributing to system-wide reliability and efficiency goals. This is in marked contrast to the current one-way, centralized control paradigm.

ARPA-E↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emulation automation and model checking

A method of automating emulations is provided. The method comprising collecting publicly available network data over a predefined time interval, wherein the collected network data might comprise structured and unstructured data. Any unstructured data is converted into structured data. The original and converted structured data is stored in a database and compared to known network vulnerabilities. An emulated network is created according to the collected network data and the comparison of the structured data with known vulnerabilities. Virtual machines are created to run on the emulated network. Director programs and guest actor programs are run on the virtual machines, wherein the actor programs imitate real user behavior on the emulated network. The director programs deliver task commands to the guest actor programs to imitate real user behavior. The imitated behavior is presented to a user via an interface.

Urias, Vincent↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-agent voltage control in distribution systems using GAN-DRL-based approach

Active distribution grids can experience voltage fluctuations and violations due to the high penetration of variable distributed energy resources (DERs). These problems might occur because of the uncertain and variable generation natures of these resources, especially solar photovoltaic resources, during panel shadowing scenarios. Volt-VAR control (VVC) is an efficient method that controls the reactive power set-points of the inverters to regulate the voltage of distribution grids. Although several VVC approaches have been proposed recently, the performance of these approaches degrades significantly if behind-the-meter solar generation data are unobservable/missing. Therefore, it is necessary to impute missing/unobservable PV data accurately to be utilized in VVC approaches. Further, this paper proposes a model-free, data-driven, centrally trained, and decentrally executed multi-agent deep reinforcement learning-based VVC architecture to regulate the voltage of distribution networks. A generative adversarial network (GAN) is incorporated to impute the unobservable PV data accurately, which improves the performance of the proposed control architecture. The proposed multi-agent-soft-actor–critic algorithm (MASAC)-based VVC technique utilizes the actual PV dataset as well as the imputed dataset from the GAN framework to learn the optimal coordinated control policy for controlling the optimal reactive power set-points of PV inverters. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is analyzed on a modified IEEE 34-bus test case with added PV inverters. The results are compared and analyzed with a base case model with no VVC and VVC with a local droop control approach, genetic algorithm optimization, and a centralized soft actor–critic-based approach. Moreover, the performance of the proposed approach is compared with that of a multi-agent VVC framework without using the PV generation data and load information as the system state. The results illustrate that the proposed method with more state input improves the voltage profile and reduces the power loss of the network across various loading and PV generation scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cultural Shifts in High Energy Physics Collaboration from the Cold War to the Present: A Historical and Philosophical Perspective

Here, this article employs empirical history and the philosophy of science to study cultural convergences and divergences in international collaborations in high energy physics. We examine two cases: (1) E-36, an experiment on small angle proton-proton scattering conducted during the Cold War at the National Accelerator Laboratory (NAL) in the USA by Soviet and US scientists and (2) an ongoing collaborative experiment, NICA, at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (JINR, Dubna), which is a project devoted to heavy-ion physics. The JINR, particularly its Laboratory of High Energy Physics (formerly the “Laboratory of High Energies”) is the main mediating actor between these two cases (i.e., E-36 and NICA), as the majority of Soviet participants in E-36 were representatives of the Institute. Using empirical data collected through archival searches, field observations conducted at JINR in 2018–2019, and in-depth interviews, we tell a story of cultural differences in high energy physics by applying the concepts of ‘trading zones’ (P. Galison) and the translation of interests in actor-networks (B. Latour, M. Callon and others). We analyze three types of cultural diversity (specialization, nationality, and generational) in light of the implications of temporal context and the dichotomy between East and West, showing the roles cultural diversity plays in scientific collaboration (which is an integral part of as well as obstacle to scientific research that can nevertheless provide learning opportunities). Our study aims to demonstrate how disunity and diversity may function in scientific research and how high energy physics collaborations can remain productive despite sometimes deep divergences, including those between East and West.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2011

The treatment of landscape in a Swedish EIA process

Landscape is partly a social matter and has long been one of many aspects investigated in environmental impact work in road and railway planning. The focus on landscape has recently strengthened as Sweden is on its way to ratifying the European Landscape Convention (ELC). It is timely to examine how landscape is handled in environmental impact statement (EIS) preparation in everyday practice, a process involving many actors. This study examines the environmental impact assessment process for a large road project, More Efficient North-South Communications in Greater Stockholm, in terms of the behaviour of three actors, the developer, practitioner, and reviewer. In many respects, the results were rather far removed from several ELC intentions. The deficiencies primarily concerned public participation, comprehensive overview, competence, and stakeholder coordination. These deficiencies originated both inside and outside the environmental impact assessment process of the studied road-building project and cannot be attributed any single stakeholder.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Promoting system-level learning from project-level lessons

A growing number of low and middle income nations (LMCs) have adopted some sort of system for environmental impact assessment (EIA). However, generally many of these EIA systems are characterised by a low performance in terms of timely information dissemination, monitoring and enforcement after licencing. Donor actors (such as the World Bank) have attempted to contribute to a higher performance of EIA systems in LMCs by intervening at two levels: the project level (e.g. by providing scoping advice or EIS quality review) and the system level (e.g. by advising on EIA legislation or by capacity building). The aims of these interventions are environmental protection in concrete cases and enforcing the institutionalisation of environmental protection, respectively. Learning by actors involved is an important condition for realising these aims. A relatively underexplored form of learning concerns learning at EIA system-level via project level donor interventions. This 'indirect' learning potentially results in system changes that better fit the specific context(s) and hence contribute to higher performances. Our exploratory research in Ghana and the Maldives shows that thus far, 'indirect' learning only occurs incidentally and that donors play a modest role in promoting it. Barriers to indirect learning are related to the institutional context rather than to individual characteristics. Moreover, 'indirect' learning seems to flourish best in large projects where donors achieved a position of influence that they can use to evoke reflection upon system malfunctions. In order to enhance learning at all levels donors should thereby present the outcomes of the intervention elaborately (i.e. discuss the outcomes with a large audience), include practical suggestions about post-EIS activities such as monitoring procedures and enforcement options and stimulate the use of their advisory reports to generate organisational memory and ensure a better information dissemination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Environmental impact assessment in urban transport planning: Exploring process-related barriers in Spanish practice

The effectiveness of EIA for evaluating transport planning projects is increasingly being questioned by practitioners, institutions and scholars. The academic literature has traditionally focused more on solving content-related problems with EIA (i.e. the measurement of environmental effects) than on process-related issues (i.e. the role of EIA in the planning process and the interaction between key actors). Focusing only on technical improvements is not sufficient for rectifying the effectiveness problems of EIA. In order to address this knowledge gap, the paper explores how EIA is experienced in the Spanish planning context and offers in-depth insight into EIA process-related issues in the field of urban transport planning. From the multitude of involved actors, the research focuses on exploring the perceptions of the two main professional groups: EIA developers and transport planners. Through a web-based survey we assess the importance of process-related barriers to the effective use of EIA in urban transport planning. The analyses revealed process issues based fundamentally on unstructured stakeholders involvement and an inefficient public participation - Highlights: • Qualitative research on perceptions of EIA participants on EIA processes. • Web-based survey with different participants (EIA-developers; transport planners). • It was seen an inefficient participation of stakeholders during the EIA processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Four conceptual issues to consider in integrating social and environmental factors in risk and impact assessments

In the last twenty years, both the increase in academic production and the expansion of professional involvement in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) have evidenced growing scientific and business interest in risk and impact analysis. However, this growth has not brought with it parallel progress in addressing the main shortcomings of EIA/SIA, i.e. insufficient integration of environmental and social factors into development project analyses and, in cases where the social aspects are considered, technical-methodological failings in their analysis and assessment. It is clear that these weaknesses carry with them substantial threats to the sustainability (social, environmental and economic) of projects which impact on the environment, and consequently to the local contexts where they are carried out and to the delicate balance of the global ecosystem. This paper argues that, in a sociological context of complexity and dynamism, four conceptual elements should underpin approaches to socio-environmental risk and impact assessment in development projects: a theoretical base in actor–network theory; an ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized (though not always fulfilled in practice); a (new) epistemological-scientific base; and a methodological foundation in social participation. - Highlights: • A theoretical foundation in actor–network theory • An ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized, but rarely carried through into practice • A (new) epistemological-scientific base • A methodological foundation in social participation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Theorising EIA effectiveness: A contribution based on the Danish system

Considerable attention has been given to the effectiveness of environmental impact assessment (EIA) since the 1970s. Relatively few research studies, however, have approached EIA as an instrument of environmental governance, and have explored the mechanisms through which EIA influences the behaviour of actors involved in planning processes. Consequently, theory in this area is underspecified. In this paper we contribute to theory-building by analysing the effectiveness of a unique EIA system: the Danish system. In this system the competent authority, instead of the project proponent, undertakes EIA reporting. Additionally, the public, rather than experts, play a central role in quality control and the Danish EIA community is relatively small which influences community dynamics in particular ways. A nation-wide survey and expert interviews were undertaken in order to examine the views of actors involved in EIA on the effectiveness of this anomalous system. The empirical data are compared with similar studies on governance mechanisms in other countries, especially the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, as well as with earlier evaluations of EIA effectiveness in Denmark. The results indicate that the more extensive role attributed to the competent authority may lead to higher EIA effectiveness when this aligns with their interests; the influence of the public is amplified by a powerful complaints system; and, the size of the EIA community appears to have no substantial influence on EIA effectiveness. We discuss how the research findings might enhance our theoretical understanding of the operation and effectiveness of governance mechanisms in EIA. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of the unique Danish EIA system is explored. • Results are compared with similar studies in the Netherlands and the UK. • Findings lead to hypotheses that contribute to theorising EIA effectiveness.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Including health in environmental impact assessments of three mega transport projects in Sydney, Australia: A critical, institutional, analysis

This article details how health impacts came to be assessed in three mega, billion dollar, transport infrastructure projects, two road tunnels and one light rail, in Sydney Australia. The known health impacts of transport decisions include environmental, behavioural and social factors. EIA practice prioritises environmental risks, and there has been scant attention to understanding why this is persistently the case. Here we provide a critical theory lens, using critical realist methodology, to analyse empirical data collected through interviews and documents for the three cases. Our analysis focusses on EIA practice within its institutional context, building on ‘new institutional’ approaches to policy analysis that emphasise actors (the stakeholders involved in the EIA), structures (the ‘rules of the game’ that influence practice in systems), and power. We find that the various actors engaged in the EIAs principally to address particular goals that were pre-determined by the system in which they worked or belonged. Structurally, each EIA was undertaken as a compliance process relatively late in the planning process. Considering project options was not part of the EIA's purpose. Resources to undertake the EIAs were provided by those funding the projects (“the proponents”) and determined the types of issues to be considered. The full range of links between transport and health were not identified. Concerning power, health impacts were considered through inter-professional technical negotiation. The inability to engage in the fundamental options driving projects meant impacted communities questioned the validity of the EIA, and the health assessment within this. Our institutional analysis provides important knowledge about how the EIAs preferenced a focus on specific health risks to the detriment of the known broader determinants that shape the health impacts of transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

PPAR agonists reduce steatosis in oleic acid-overloaded HepaRG cells

Although non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is currently the most common form of chronic liver disease there is no pharmacological agent approved for its treatment. Since peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) are closely associated with hepatic lipid metabolism, they seem to play important roles in NAFLD. However, the effects of PPAR agonists on steatosis that is a common pathology associated with NAFLD, remain largely controversial. In this study, the effects of various PPAR agonists, i.e. fenofibrate, bezafibrate, troglitazone, rosiglitazone, muraglitazar and tesaglitazar on oleic acid-induced steatotic HepaRG cells were investigated after a single 24-hour or 2-week repeat treatment. Lipid vesicles stained by Oil-Red O and triglycerides accumulation caused by oleic acid overload, were decreased, by up to 50%, while fatty acid oxidation was induced after 2-week co-treatment with PPAR agonists. The greatest effects on reduction of steatosis were obtained with the dual PPARα/γ agonist muraglitazar. Such improvement of steatosis was associated with up-regulation of genes related to fatty acid oxidation activity and down-regulation of many genes involved in lipogenesis. Moreover, modulation of expression of some nuclear receptor genes, such as FXR, LXRα and CAR, which are potent actors in the control of lipogenesis, was observed and might explain repression of de novo lipogenesis. Conclusion: Altogether, our in vitro data on steatotic HepaRG cells treated with PPAR agonists correlated well with clinical investigations, bringing a proof of concept that drug-induced reversal of steatosis in human can be evaluated in in vitro before conducting long-term and costly in vivo studies in animals and patients. - Highlights: • There is no pharmacological agent approved for the treatment of NAFLD. • This study demonstrates that PPAR agonists can reduce fatty acid-induced steatosis. • Some nuclear receptors appear to be potent actors in the control of lipogenesis. • A proof of concept that reversal of steatosis can be evaluated in human HepaRG cells.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Using social network and stakeholder analysis to help evaluate infectious waste management: A step towards a holistic assessment

Highlights: • Assessment of infectious waste management in Bangkok, in particular incineration. • Integration of social network and stakeholder analysis assessment methods. • Assessment of stakeholder characteristics, role, interaction and communication. • Interviewees self-evaluate their own characteristics and the system. • Non-technical aspects are important for system acceptability, and sustainability. - Abstract: Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of a solid waste management scheme requires an accurate analysis and integration of several determining features. In addition to the technical aspects, any such system shows a complex interaction of actors with varying stakes, decision-making power and influence, as well as a favourable or disabling environment. When capitalizing on the knowledge and experience from a specific case, it is also crucial that experts do not “forget” or underestimate the importance of such social determinants and that they are familiar with the methods and tools to assess them. Social network analysis (SNA) and stakeholder analysis (SA) methods can be successfully applied to better understand actors’ role and actions, analyse driving forces and existing coordination among stakeholders, as well as identify bottlenecks in communication which affect daily operations or strategic planning for the future way forward. SNA and SA, appropriately adjusted for a certain system, can provide a useful integration to methods by assessing other aspects to ensure a comprehensive picture of the situation. This paper describes how to integrate SNA and SA in order to survey a solid waste management system. This paper presents the results of an analysis of On-Nuch infectious waste incinerator in Bangkok, Thailand. Stakeholders were interviewed and asked to prioritize characteristics and relationships which they consider particularly important for system development and success of the scheme. In such a way, a large quantity of information about organization, communication between stakeholders and their perception about operation, environmental and health impact, and potential alternatives for the system was collected in a systematic way. The survey results suggest that stakeholders are generally satisfied with the system operation, though communication should be improved. Moreover, stakeholders should be strategically more involved in system development planning, according to their characteristics, to prevent negative reactions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2015

Impacts of policy and market incentives for solid waste recycling in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Highlights: • Bangladesh’s industry and population are growing rapidly, producing more urban waste. • Recycling reduces the solid waste management burden of Municipalities. • A wide array of informal and formal actors is involved in collection and recycling. • Demand for recycled materials and renewable energy creates market incentives. • Policy incentives exist, but they only reach the formal industry. - Abstract: Solid waste mismanagement in Dhaka, Bangladesh, illustrates a well-known market failure which can be summarized as: waste is a resource in the wrong place. Inorganic materials such as plastic or paper can be used to feed the demand for recycled materials in the industrial sector. Organic materials can be converted and used in the nutrient-starved agricultural sector which is currently heavily depending on chemical fertilizers. They are also a feedstock to generate renewable energy in the form of biogas for this energy-starved country relying on diminishing natural gas reserves and increasing import of coal. Reality however does not capitalize on this potential; instead the waste is a burden for municipal authorities who spend large portions of their budgets attempting to transport it out of the city for discharge into landfills. The major part of these materials still remains uncollected in the residential areas and is discarded indiscriminately in open spaces, polluting the residents’ living environment including water, soil and air resources, in the city and beyond. Bangladeshi authorities have, to some extent, recognized this market failure and have developed policies to encourage the development of waste recycling activities. It is also important to note that this market failure is only partial: a large, mostly informal recycling sector has developed in Bangladesh, focusing on inorganic recyclables of market value. The fact that this sector remains largely informal means that these actors perceive significant barriers to formalization. Comparatively, the organic waste recycling sector is less driven by market mechanisms. Competition from chemical fertilizers and fossil fuels is fierce and hinders the development of market opportunities for compost and renewable energy. Nevertheless commercial production of compost and biogas from organic municipal waste is formalized and benefiting from policy incentives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States

Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve a 65% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the United States by 2035

Under the next cycle of target setting under the Paris Agreement, countries will be updating and submitting new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) over the coming year. To this end, there is a growing need for the United States to assess potential pathways toward a new, maximally ambitious 2035 NDC. In this study, we use an integrated assessment model with state-level detail to model existing policies from both federal and non-federal actors, including the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and key state policies, across all sectors and gases. Additionally, we develop a high-ambition scenario, which includes new and enhanced policies from these actors. We find that existing policies can reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 44% (with a range of 37% to 52%) by 2035, relative to 2005 levels. The high-ambition scenario can deliver net GHG reductions up to 65% (with a range of 59% to 71%) by 2035 under accelerated implementation of federal regulations and investments, as well as state policies such as renewable portfolio standards, EV sales targets, and zero-emission appliance standards. This level of reductions would provide a basis for continued progress toward the country’s 2050 net-zero emissions goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗