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Capability in Theory, Modeling, and Validation for a Range of Innovative Fusion Concepts using High-Fidelity Moment-Kinetic Models

A computational modeling capability is created and available to the fusion community to understand and design lower-cost and innovative fusion concepts. The approach uses high- fidelity kinetic, moment-kinetic, and moment models and includes sophisticated plasma- boundary interactions. A majority of fusion-relevant simulations are performed with magnetohydrodynamic models and hybrid particle-in-cell codes, with limited-fidelity electron and kinetic physics. However, in fusion configurations like Z-pinches, field-reversed- configurations, plasma jet magneto-inertial fusion, spinning mirrors, and others, kinetic effects (both electron and ions) are critical to understand the physics and design scaling into the highly kinetic regime of a burning fusion plasma. Furthermore, as present fusion machines move towards a burning plasma regime, liquid-metal blankets are needed to handle first-wall heat- flux, reduce erosion, and eventually for energy conversion and fuel breeding. The work performed under this ARPA-E BETHE Capability Team advances the state-of-the-art in modeling and understanding plasma dynamics in fusion devices and its coupling with liquid-metal dynamics. These are critical areas of research for fusion energy to become realizable. To address these complex problems, we have leveraged and extended computational capabilities through the code, Gkeyll (developed jointly with Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and academic partners), for kinetic and moment modeling of fusion plasmas. The Concept Teams supported by this Capability Team include the Wisconsin High-field Axisymmetric Mirror (WHAM), Centrifugal Mirror Experiment (CFME), Plasma-Jet Magneto- Inertial Fusion (PJMIF), and solid and liquid wall plasma-material interaction studies relevant to a number of fusion concepts including Zap Energy’s Z-pinch. This software is open-source and available to the fusion community as a high-fidelity tool for the design of lower-cost fusion experiments. 3D gyrokinetic simulations of WHAM are now possible for long enough time scales to understand the evolution of interchange instabilities. 3D multi-fluid simulations of CMFE at higher Mach numbers are now possible for detailed design iterations with the goal of stability. The state-of-the-art in understanding shock formation and shock mitigation regimes in merging liners for PJMIF have been furthered by our kinetic simulations. Our novel models and frameworks studying plasma-material interaction by incorporating wall emission for various solid wall materials of relevance to pulsed and steady fusion concepts have advanced the state-of-the-art in our understanding of particle fluxes, heat fluxes, and other quantities at cathodes and anodes. The results from this work may explain discrepancies between experimental and theoretical predictions of achieved current densities in pulsed concepts such as Z-pinches. Another significant contribution of this Capability Team is the development and deployment of a novel experimental platform, LEX (Liquid Electrode eXperiment), at Virginia Tech to understand liquid metal free-surface response to electromagnetic pulses. The novel experiments along with model validation quantified the effect of different materials and sizes of liquid metal droplets on the radiative power balance of fusion plasmas for pulsed concepts. Furthermore, these experiments provided mitigation strategies for violent liquid metal response for high current pulses as would be expected in fusion regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Specifications of Legacy U(Pu)Zr Metallography Data

The DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Program has supported the creation of several databases with information describing the safety performance of fast reactors, components, and fuels. This growing collection of legacy experimental data, operating data, and analysis is available online to registered users. Metallography data is one of the most important types of PIE data being collected, organized and stored in several ART Fast Reactor Databases (https://frdb.ne.anl.gov), including the Fuels Irradiation & Physics Database (FIPD), Out-of-Pile Transient Database (OPTD), and TREAT (the Transient Reactor Test Facility) Experimental Relational Database (TREXR). These databases contain three main sets of metallography data. The first set is the metallography data from Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II) and Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) irradiated fuel pins measured in the Hot Fuel Examination Facility (HFEF); the second set is the metallography data from EBR-II irradiated fuel pins measured in the Alpha-Gamma Hot Cell Facility (AGHCF); the third set is the metallography data from transient tested fuel pins (the transients tests include the out-of-pile tests and TREAT tests) measured in AGHCF. Since both the second and third sets of data were measured in AGHCF, they are governed by the same specification. The metallography data in the databases are digital images scanned from either positive or negative photos. The quality of the images, including their resolution and contrast, relies on the preserved quality of the pictures and the scanning conditions. To analyze the microstructure of a fuel pin, a series of preparatory steps must be undertaken. These include sectioning, epoxy mounting, mechanical grinding and polishing, and often etching. The resulting samples were then transferred to a secondary hot cell, or glovebox (depending the strength of radiation field) for microscopy examination. The specifications provided herein focus on the metallography examinations. The sample grinding, polishing and etching processes are also discussed. The procedures involving sectioning and epoxy mounting are out of the scope of the current specification; details can be found in the corresponding operation manuals. If more data are collected and added to the ART Fast Reactor Databases, this specification will be updated to accommodate the additional data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Towards Thermomechanical Processing of Alloy 709: Progress in Defining High-Temperature Deformation-Recrystallization "Space"

The Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Program has established a multi-year plan to develop Alloy 709 advanced stainless steel, generate the data package and develop material-specific design parameters in qualifying it as a new structural material for Class A construction in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section III, Division 5, High Temperature Reactors (ASME 2025). In collaboration with material vendors, the Advanced Materials Development activities under ART have successfully scaled the Alloy 709 plate form production from a laboratory heat of 500 pounds to commercial heats totaling 133,000 pounds of Alloy 709 plate fabricated from three heats. The goal of the overall Alloy 709 development program is to establish the necessary microstructural and mechanical properties relationship for Alloy 709 to ultimately develop fabrication parameters for other product forms such as bars, pipes, and forgings using the available ART Alloy 709 materials. This study will enable its deployment in the industry as an advanced construction material for high-temperature components. The objective of this Alloy 709 development work in FY 2025 is to experimentally determine the high-temperature deformation-recrystallization response of the Alloy 709 heats and to experimentally generate true stress-true strain data for Alloy 709 using the available commercial heat plate materials. Integral to this work is the previous characterization of the as-rolled materials and the determination of an effective solution-annealing process, which was reported in Y. Wang et al., 2023, and the evaluation of the effect of controlled cooling on the resultant precipitation in these commercial heats. This report summarizes and builds on the results of the previous reports to assess the high-temperature deformation behavior as a function of deformation temperature, strain and strain rate using commercial Alloy 709 heat 58776-3RB fabricated by G. O. Carlson and heat 529900-02 fabricated by Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) Specialty Rolled Products.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Efficient First-Order Algorithms for Large-Scale, Non-Smooth Maximum Entropy Models with Application to Wildfire Science

Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are a class of statistical models that use the maximum entropy principle to estimate probability distributions from data. Due to the size of modern data sets, MaxEnt models need efficient optimization algorithms to scale well for big data applications. State-of-the-art algorithms for MaxEnt models, however, were not originally designed to handle big data sets; these algorithms either rely on technical devices that may yield unreliable numerical results, scale poorly, or require smoothness assumptions that many practical MaxEnt models lack. In this paper, we present novel optimization algorithms that overcome the shortcomings of state-of-the-art algorithms for training large-scale, non-smooth MaxEnt models. Our proposed first-order algorithms leverage the Kullback–Leibler divergence to train large-scale and non-smooth MaxEnt models efficiently. For MaxEnt models with discrete probability distribution of n elements built from samples, each containing m features, the stepsize parameter estimation and iterations in our algorithms scale on the order of O(mn) operations and can be trivially parallelized. Moreover, the strong ℓ1 convexity of the Kullback–Leibler divergence allows for larger stepsize parameters, thereby speeding up the convergence rate of our algorithms. To illustrate the efficiency of our novel algorithms, we consider the problem of estimating probabilities of fire occurrences as a function of ecological features in the Western US MTBS-Interagency wildfire data set. Our numerical results show that our algorithms outperform the state of the art by one order of magnitude and yield results that agree with physical models of wildfire occurrence and previous statistical analyses of wildfire drivers.

Physics

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought

Modeling inter‐reader variability in clinical target volume delineation for soft tissue sarcomas using diffusion model

Abstract Background Accurate delineation of the clinical target volume (CTV) is essential in the radiotherapy treatment of soft tissue sarcomas. However, this process is subject to inter‐reader variability due to the need for clinical assessment of risk and extent of potential microscopic spread. This can lead to inconsistencies in treatment planning, potentially impacting treatment outcomes. Most existing automatic CTV delineation methods do not account for this variability and can only generate a single CTV for each case. Purpose This study aims to develop a deep learning‐based technique to generate multiple CTV contours for each case, simulating the inter‐reader variability in the clinical practice. Methods We employed a publicly available dataset consisting of fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG‐PET), x‐ray computed tomography (CT), and pre‐contrast T1‐weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans from 51 patients with soft tissue sarcoma, along with an independent validation set containing five additional patients. An experienced reader drew a contour of the gross tumor volume (GTV) for each patient based on multi‐modality images. Subsequently, two additional readers, together with the first one, were responsible for contouring three CTVs in total based on the GTV. We developed a diffusion model‐based deep learning method that is capable of generating arbitrary number of different and plausible CTVs to mimic the inter‐reader variability in CTV delineation. The proposed model incorporates a separate encoder to extract features from the GTV masks, leveraging the critical role of GTV information in accurate CTV delineation. Results The proposed diffusion model demonstrated superior performance with the highest Dice Index (0.902 compared to values below 0.881 for state‐of‐the‐art models) and the best generalized energy distance (GED) (0.209 compared to values exceeding 0.221 for state‐of‐the‐art models). It also achieved the second‐highest recall and precision metrics among the compared ambiguous image segmentation models. Results from both datasets exhibited consistent trends, reinforcing the reliability of our findings. Additionally, ablation studies exploring different model structures and input configurations highlighted the significance of incorporating prior GTV information for accurate CTV delineation. Conclusions The proposed diffusion model successfully generates multiple plausible CTV contours for soft tissue sarcomas, effectively capturing inter‐reader variability in CTV delineation.

Dong, Yafei [Yale Biomedical Imaging Institute Yal

On the emerging potential of quantum annealing hardware for combinatorial optimization

Abstract Over the past decade, the usefulness of quantum annealing hardware for combinatorial optimization has been the subject of much debate. Thus far, experimental benchmarking studies have indicated that quantum annealing hardware does not provide an irrefutable performance gain over state-of-the-art optimization methods. However, as this hardware continues to evolve, each new iteration brings improved performance and warrants further benchmarking. To that end, this work conducts an optimization performance assessment of D-Wave Systems’ Advantage Performance Update computer, which can natively solve sparse unconstrained quadratic optimization problems with over 5,000 binary decision variables and 40,000 quadratic terms. We demonstrate that classes of contrived problems exist where this quantum annealer can provide run time benefits over a collection of established classical solution methods that represent the current state-of-the-art for benchmarking quantum annealing hardware. Although this work does not present strong evidence of an irrefutable performance benefit for this emerging optimization technology, it does exhibit encouraging progress, signaling the potential impacts on practical optimization tasks in the future.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION

Engineering PHL7 for Improved Poly(Ethylene Terephthalate) Depolymerization via Rational Design and Directed Evolution

Enzymatic depolymerization of poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) has emerged as a promising approach for polyester recycling, and, to date, many natural and engineered PET hydrolase enzymes have been reported. For industrial use, PET hydrolases must achieve high depolymerization extent and exhibit excellent thermostability. Here, we engineered a natural PET hydrolase, Polyester Hydrolase Leipzig #7 (PHL7), through rational design and directed evolution using a high-throughput screening platform. Four new enzymes were engineered with enhanced properties compared with the parent enzyme, wild-type PHL7 (PHL7-WT), and other benchmark PET hydrolases, under the tested conditions. In bioreactors, the exemplary engineered enzyme, PHL7-Jemez, exhibited improved ability to depolymerize amorphous PET film compared with PHL7-WT at 2.9% and 20% substrate loadings, with 37% and 270% higher hydrolysis, respectively, after 48 h. This study develops several state-of-the-art PET hydrolases and demonstrates a directed evolution platform to engineer high-performance enzymes, which can accelerate enzyme discovery toward improved biocatalytic recycling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

A segmented approach to modeling building height: Delineating high-rise and low-rise buildings for enhanced height estimation

Understanding building height is imperative to the overall study of energy efficiency, population distribution, urban morphologies, emergency response, among others. Currently, existing approaches for modeling building height at scale are hindered by two pervasive issues. First, there is no consistent approach to quantify what a high-rise building is at a macro scale, leaving researchers unable to accurately compare results across geographies and domains. Second, high-rise buildings represent a small fraction of the built environment, implying data imbalance challenges that negatively affect current approaches. This is a problem of practical relevance since information on high-rise buildings is important for studies on urban heat islands, population dynamics, and pollution dispersion. Here, we introduce a novel approach to map building height which first identifies two distinct distributions within the built environment, with one being composed of low-rise buildings and one composed of high-rise buildings. We then develop an ensemble scheme where discrete specialist models are trained for each subset of low-rise buildings and high-rise buildings to infer building height from morphology features. For experiments mapping heights of 4.85 million buildings in Japan, we show an increase of 34 % in accuracy within 3m error when compared to the current state-of-the-art when modeling high-rise buildings, which based on KNN experimentation we define as any building > 12m . Our findings show that such an ensemble framework outperforms the current state-of-the-art approaches, which is especially relevant in relation to inferring height for high-rise buildings, a prominent issue of existing approaches for mapping the built environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

MFC 5.0: An exascale many-physics flow solver

Many problems of interest in engineering, medicine, and the fundamental sciences rely on high-fidelity flow simulation, making performant computational fluid dynamics solvers a mainstay of the open-source software community. Previous work MFC 3.0 was made a published, documented, and open-source solver via Bryngelson et al. Comp. Phys. Comm. (2021) with numerous physical features, numerical methods, and scalable infrastructure. MFC 5.0 is a significant update to MFC 3.0, featuring a broad set of well-established and novel physical models and numerical methods, as well as the introduction of GPU and APU (or superchip) acceleration. Here, we exhibit state-of-the-art performance and ideal scaling on the first two exascale supercomputers, OLCF Frontier and LLNL El Capitan. Combined with MFC’s single-accelerator performance, MFC achieves exascale computation in practice, and achieved the largest-to-date public CFD simulation at 200 trillion grid points as a 2025 ACM Gordon Bell Prize finalist. New physical features include the immersed boundary method, N-fluid phase change, Euler–Euler and Euler–Lagrange sub-grid bubble models, fluid-structure interaction, hypo- and hyper-elastic materials, chemically reacting flow, two-material surface tension, magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), and more. Numerical techniques now represent the current state-of-the-art, including general relaxation characteristic boundary conditions, WENO variants, Strang splitting for stiff sub-grid flow features, and low Mach number treatments. Weak scaling to tens of thousands of GPUs on OLCF Summit and Frontier and LLNL El Capitan achieves efficiencies within 5% of ideal to over 90% of their respective system sizes. Strong scaling results for a 16-times increase in device count show parallel efficiencies over 90% on OLCF Frontier. MFC’s software stack has undergone further improvements, including continuous integration, which ensures code resilience and correctness through over 300 regression tests; metaprogramming, which reduces code length while maintaining performance portability; and code generation for computing chemical reactions

Computational fluid dynamics

scPlantAnnotate: an accurate and robust transformer-based model for plant cell type annotation

Accurate cell type annotation remains a major bottleneck in plant single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq), where existing tools are often adapted from animal studies and perform sub-optimally on plant data. The lack of plant-specific computational frameworks limits the construction of plant cell atlases and downstream biological discovery. We develop and evaluate scPlantAnnotate, a Transformer-based reference annotation framework tailored for plant scRNA-seq data, and benchmark it against state-of-the-art deep learning and conventional methods across multiple plant species. Species-specific scPlantAnnotate models were trained using curated datasets from Arabidopsis thaliana, Zea mays, Oryza sativa, and Glycine max. We compared scPlantAnnotate with leading baselines under both standard random-split evaluation and a more stringent leave-one-dataset-out setting, which tests robustness to completely unseen datasets and tissue types. scPlantAnnotate consistently outperforms existing approaches across all four species under random-split evaluation. In the leave-one-dataset-out setting for A. thaliana, where performance drops markedly for all methods due to strong batch effects and dataset heterogeneity, scPlantAnnotate nonetheless achieves the highest Accuracy, Macro-F1, Balanced Accuracy, and Macro-AUROC on average and ranks first on most held-out datasets. These results demonstrate improved robustness to dataset shifts, a critical yet underexplored challenge in plant scRNA-seq analysis. A freely accessible web server enables users to annotate their own datasets using pretrained models. scPlantAnnotate provides a plant-specific, Transformer-based framework for single-cell annotation that delivers state-of-the-art performance and enhanced robustness to unseen datasets. By addressing limitations of existing tools and enabling scalable reference-based annotation, scPlantAnnotate supports the development of comprehensive plant cell atlases and facilitates broader use of single-cell genomics in plant biology.

Bioinformatics

Peak2Patch: High-Fidelity Functional Group Identification through Attention-Based Fusion of Infrared and Mass Spectra

Identifying molecular structure based on spectroscopic readings is a key task in a variety of chemical and biological applications. Common spectroscopy techniques, such as Infrared (IR) Spectroscopy and Mass Spectrometry (MS), provide detailed information on the structure of molecular compounds but nonetheless require expert-level knowledge to decode. Machine learning has emerged as a potential solution for automating structure prediction from chemical spectra; however, current approaches generally focus on single sensor modalities, neglecting to leverage the complementary information contained within differing spectra. In this paper, we introduce Peak2Patch, a novel approach to fusion-enhanced prediction of functional groups from IR and mass spectra. First, we perform a detailed comparison of backbone networks for encoding both sparse mass spectra and dense IR spectra and demonstrate the superior performance of transformer neural networks over current state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks. Second, we evaluate three broad categories of fusion: early (raw feature), middle (deep feature), and late (decision) fusion, demonstrating the potential of a deep feature fusion-based approach. Lastly, we present Peak2Patch, our attention-based fusion scheme, which leverages cross-attention to mix features between encoded tokens of the two modalities. We validate our approach on a publicly available multimodal spectroscopic data set of 790k simulated molecules, demonstrating a large improvement in functional group prediction over both the previous state-of-the-art and our own strong single-modal baselines.

Jacobson, Philip [Sandia National Laboratories (SN

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick

Baseflow Identification via Explainable AI With Kolmogorov‐Arnold Networks

Abstract Hydrological models often involve constitutive laws that may not be optimal in every application. We propose to replace such laws with the Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs), a class of neural networks designed to identify symbolic expressions. We demonstrate KAN's potential on the problem of baseflow identification, a notoriously challenging task plagued by significant uncertainty. KAN‐derived functional dependencies of the baseflow components on the aridity index outperform their original counterparts; they demonstrate that water availability, rather than potential evapotranspiration, drives baseflow by constraining actual evapotranspiration under arid conditions. On a test set, they increase the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) by 65%, decrease the root mean squared error by 29%, and increase the Kling‐Gupta efficiency by 34%. This superior performance is achieved while reducing the number of fitting parameters from three to two. Next, we use data from 378 catchments across the continental United States to refine the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale. The KAN‐derived equations based on the refined water balance outperform both the current aridity index model, with up to a 105% increase in NSE, and the KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. While the performance of our model and tree‐based machine learning methods is similar, KANs offer the advantage of simplicity and transparency and require no specific software or computational tools. This case study focuses on the aridity index formulation, but the approach is flexible and transferable to other hydrological processes. Plain Language Summary Equations used in hydrologic model are often suboptimal, resulting in reduced prediction accuracy and efficiency. We implemented Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KAN), a machine learning algorithm for deriving symbolic formulations, to estimate groundwater recharge and showed that it outperforms an existing state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical formulation. In hydrology, Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE) are commonly used to evaluate model performance. Higher NSE and KGE values indicate better performance, while lower RMSE values are preferable. Our results show that NSE increased by 71%, RMSE decreased by 32%, and KGE improved by 25%. In addition, KAN identifies an optimal functional form and can be used to derive new analytical formulas using the prior knowledge. The KAN‐inspired equation outperformed the original formulation and reduced the fitting parameters. Furthermore, we refined the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale and showed that, based on the new water‐balance equation, KAN can derive new formulations that are superior to the original aridity index formulations (up to 105% increase in NSE) and KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. These findings highlight the significant potential of KAN to advance the scientific understanding of a wide range of hydrologic processes. Key Points Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs) enhance interpretability of machine‐learned hydrological models KAN‐derived symbolic formulations outperform state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical aridity indices KAN‐identified functional form yields an analytical index with fewer fitting parameters and improved performance

baseflow

ON-OFF neuromorphic ISING machines using Fowler-Nordheim annealers

We introduce NeuroSA, a neuromorphic architecture specifically designed to ensure asymptotic convergence to the ground state of an Ising problem using a Fowler-Nordheim quantum mechanical tunneling based threshold-annealing process. The core component of NeuroSA consists of a pair of asynchronous ON-OFF neurons, which effectively map classical simulated annealing dynamics onto a network of integrate-and-fire neurons. The threshold of each ON-OFF neuron pair is adaptively adjusted by an FN annealer and the resulting spiking dynamics replicates the optimal escape mechanism and convergence of SA, particularly at low-temperatures. To validate the effectiveness of our neuromorphic Ising machine, we systematically solved benchmark combinatorial optimization problems such as MAX-CUT and Max Independent Set. Across multiple runs, NeuroSA consistently generates distribution of solutions that are concentrated around the state-of-the-art results (within 99%) or surpass the current state-of-the-art solutions for Max Independent Set benchmarks. Furthermore, NeuroSA is able to achieve these superior distributions without any graph-specific hyperparameter tuning. For practical illustration, we present results from an implementation of NeuroSA on the SpiNNaker2 platform, highlighting the feasibility of mapping our proposed architecture onto a standard neuromorphic accelerator platform.

42 ENGINEERING

Quantum annealing for combinatorial optimization: a benchmarking study

Quantum annealing (QA) has the potential to significantly improve solution quality and reduce time complexity in solving combinatorial optimization problems compared to classical optimization methods. However, due to the limited number of qubits and their connectivity, the QA hardware did not show such an advantage over classical methods in past benchmarking studies. Recent advancements in QA with more than 5000 qubits, enhanced qubit connectivity, and the hybrid architecture promise to realize the quantum advantage. Here, we use a quantum annealer with state-of-the-art techniques and benchmark its performance against classical solvers. To compare their performance, we solve over 50 optimization problem instances represented by large and dense Hamiltonian matrices using quantum and classical solvers. The results demonstrate that a state-of-the-art quantum solver has higher accuracy (~0.013%) and a significantly faster problem-solving time (~6561×) than the best classical solver. Our results highlight the advantages of leveraging QA over classical counterparts, particularly in hybrid configurations, for achieving high accuracy and substantially reduced problem solving time in large-scale real-world optimization problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Multireference diffusion Monte Carlo reaches 2D materials

Abstract Quantum confinement in 2D materials strongly enhances electronic correlation effects. Therefore, predicting the properties of these unique materials, with both a high level of accuracy and computational efficiency, without relying on adjustable parameters or functionals, remains an outstanding theoretical challenge. The majority of theoretical studies are based on the approximations of density functional theory (DFT). The reliability of DFT predictions are heavily dependent on the choice of an approximated exchange-correlation functional. Here, we estimate the magnitude of impact of correlation on the total energy for the quintessential 2D material, graphene, by performing and comparing state-of-the-art selected CI and quantum Monte Carlo extrapolated calculations for a single unit cell at the$$\Gamma$$point. We demonstrate that Self-Healing Diffusion Monte Carlo (SHDMC) obtains a very compact, but high-quality wavefunction for this system that lacks the strong basis set dependence displayed by state of the art quantum chemistry methods. The SHDMC wavefunction is of higher quality compared to that obtained from sCI, in the same orbital basis, while being$$\sim$$ 1000 times smaller in terms of determinant count compared to sCI. We also demonstrate that extrapolating SHDMC results to the infinite determinant limit compares extremely well with complete basis set extrapolated sCI. Our work paves the way for future validation of SHDMC applied to challenging 2D materials.

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