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At least 91 records · Page 5

Facilitating better and faster simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions in Earth system models

Focal Area(s): 1. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. 2. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: One major challenge that Earth system models (ESMs) face in providing credible prediction of the Earth system and its water cycle characteristics (e.g., mean state, variability, and extreme events) is to accurately simulate aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The physical, chemical, and dynamical processes affecting ACI are extremely complex and they range from nanoscale to planetary scale. In each model development cycle, scientists spend significant efforts investigating model deficiencies and uncertainties associated with aerosols (e.g., emissions, chemical processes, aerosol microphysics, and transport) and clouds (e.g., macrophysics, microphysics, turbulence, and large-scale circulation) in order to develop improved treatments. However, despite decades of active research, ACI is still a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, even though great progress has been made. Specific scientific challenges include: (i) Parameterizations are developed based on limited data; (ii) The complexity of a parameterization required for accurate predictions is not understood; (iii) Incomplete and unknown physics leads to errors in the fully coupled Earth system; and (iv) Complex physics is computationally too expensive to employ in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interconnection of Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions and Cloud Feedback Through Warm Rain Process

Recent research has revealed a correlation within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations: models exhibiting more pronounced warming due to positive cloud feedback simultaneously show enhanced cooling from aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI). However, the interplay between ACI and cloud feedback is not well understood in these models. Our study addresses this gap by modifying the autoconversion rate in two Earth system models (ESMs), elucidating how ACI could connect with cloud feedback through the warm rain process. We find that higher autoconversion rates, which are associated with stronger ACI, suppress the increase in cloud liquid water path (LWP) and cloud optical depth with warming by enhancing the precipitation efficiency over the extratropical regions, leading to a larger positive cloud feedback. This study offers new insights into the compensatory mechanism between ACI and cloud feedback through the warm rain process and highlights the importance of constraining the autoconversion parameterization in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions during Tropical Deep Convection: Evidence for the Importance of Free Tropospheric Aerosols

NASA's 2002 CRYSTAL-FACE field experiment focused on the formation and evolution of tropical cirrus cloud systems in southern Florida. Multiple aircraft extensively sampled cumulonimbus dynamical and microphysical properties, as well as characterizing ambient aerosol populations both inside and outside the full depth of the convective column. On July 18, unique measurements were taken when a powerful updraft was traversed directly by aircraft, providing a window into the primary source region of cumulonimbus anvil crystals. Observations of the updraft, entered at approximately l0 km altitude and -34 C, indicated more than 200 cloud particles per mL at vertical velocities exceeding 20 m/s and the presence of significant condensation nuclei and liquid water within the core. In this work, aerosol and cloud phase observations are integrated by simulating the updraft conditions using a large-eddy resolving model with 3 explicit multiphase microphysics, including treatment of size-resolved aerosol fields, aerosol activation and freezing, and evaporation of cloud particles back to the aerosol phase. Simulations were initialized with observed thermodynamic and aerosol size distributions profiles and convection was driven by surface fluxes assimilated from the ARPS forecast model. Model results are consistent with the conclusions that most crystals are homogeneously frozen droplets and that entrained free tropospheric aerosols may contribute a significant fraction of the crystals. Thus most anvil crystals appear to be formed aloft in updraft cores, well above cloud base. These conclusions are supported by observations of hydrometeor size distribution made while traversing the dore, as well as aerosol and cloud particle size distributions generally observed by aircraft below 4km and crystal properties generally observed by aircraft above 12km.

Ackerman, A.↗

Ground-based Network and Supersite Measurements for Studying Aerosol Properties and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions

From radiometric principles, it is expected that the retrieved properties of extensive aerosols and clouds from reflected/emitted measurements by satellite (and/or aircraft) should be consistent with those retrieved from transmitted/emitted radiance observed at the surface. Although space-borne remote sensing observations contain large spatial domain, they are often plagued by contamination of surface signatures. Thus, ground-based in-situ and remote-sensing measurements, where signals come directly from atmospheric constituents, the sun, and the Earth-atmosphere interactions, provide additional information content for comparisons that confirm quantitatively the usefulness of the integrated surface, aircraft, and satellite datasets. The development and deployment of AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) sunphotometer network and SMART-COMMIT (Surface-sensing Measurements for Atmospheric Radiative Transfer - Chemical, Optical & Microphysical Measurements of In-situ Troposphere) mobile supersite are aimed for the optimal utilization of collocated ground-based observations as constraints to yield higher fidelity satellite retrievals and to determine any sampling bias due to target conditions. To characterize the regional natural and anthropogenic aerosols, AERONET is an internationally federated network of unique sunphotometry that contains more than 250 permanent sites worldwide. Since 1993, there are more than 480 million aerosol optical depth observations and about 15 sites have continuous records longer than 10 years for annual/seasonal trend analyses. To quantify the energetics of the surface-atmosphere system and the atmospheric processes, SMART-COMMIT instrument into three categories: flux radiometer, radiance sensor and in-situ probe. Through participation in many satellite remote-sensing/retrieval and validation projects over eight years, SMART-COMMIT have gradually refine( and been proven vital for field deployment. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of AERONET SMART-COMMIT in current Asian Monsoon Year-2008 campaigns that are designed and being executed to study the compelling variability in temporal scale of both anthropogenic and natural aerosols (e.g., airborne dust, smoke, mega-city pollutant). Feedback mechanisms between aerosol radiative effects and monsoon dynamics have been recently proposed, however there is a lack of consensus on whether aerosol forcing would be more likely to enhance or reduce the strength of the monsoon circulation. We envision robust approaches which well-collocated ground-based measurements and space-borne observations will greatly advance our understanding of absorbing aerosols (e.g., "Global Dimming" vs. "Elevated Heat-Pump" effects) on aerosol cloud water cycle interactions.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

Strong Dependence of Atmospheric Feedbacks on Mixed-Phase Microphysics and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in HadGEM3

We analyze the atmospheric processes that explain the large changes in radiative feed-backs between the two latest climate configurations of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental model. We use a large set of atmosphere-only climate-change simulations (amip and amip-p4K) to separate the contributions to the differences in feedback parameter from all the atmospheric model developments between the two latest model configurations. We show that the differences are mostly driven by changes in the shortwave cloud radiative feedback in the midlatitudes, mainly over the Southern Ocean. Two new schemes explain most of the differences: the introduction of a new aerosol scheme; and the development of a new mixed-phase cloud scheme. Both schemes reduce the strength of the pre-existing shortwave negative cloud feedback in the midlatitudes. The new aerosol scheme dampens a strong aerosol-cloud interaction, and it also suppresses a negative clear-sky shortwave feedback. The mixed-phase scheme increases the amount of cloud liquid water path (LWP) in the present-day, thereby reducing the radiative effciency of the increase of LWP in the warmer climate. It also enhances a strong, pre-existing, positive cloud fraction feedback. We assess the realism of the changes by comparing present-day simulations against observations, and discuss avenues that could help constrain the relevant processes.

HadGEM3↗

Assessing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions over the global ocean

How clouds respond to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial era. This uncertainty limits our ability to predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)—the equilibrium global warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 . Here, we use satellite observations to quantify relationships between sulfate aerosols and low-level clouds while carefully controlling for meteorology. We then combine the relationships with estimates of the change in sulfate concentration since about 1850 to constrain the associated radiative forcing. We estimate that the cloud-mediated radiative forcing from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is − 1.11 ± 0.43 W m −2 over the global ocean (95% confidence). This constraint implies that ECS is likely between 2.9 and 4.5 K (66% confidence). Our results indicate that aerosol forcing is less uncertain and ECS is probably larger than the ranges proposed by recent climate assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward data assimilation of ship-induced aerosol–cloud interactions

Satellite imagery can detect temporary cloud trails or ship tracks formed from aerosols emitted from large ships traversing our oceans, a phenomenon that global climate models cannot directly reproduce. Ship tracks are observable examples of marine cloud brightening, a potential solar climate intervention that shows promise in helping combat climate change. In this paper, we demonstrate a simulation-based approach in learning the behavior of ship tracks based upon a novel stochastic emulation mechanism. Our method uses wind fields to determine the movement of aerosol–cloud tracks and uses a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) to model their persistence behavior. This SPDE incorporates both a drift and diffusion term which describes the movement of aerosol particles via wind and their diffusivity through the atmosphere, respectively. We first present our proposed approach with examples using simulated wind fields and ship paths. We then successfully demonstrate our tool by applying the approximate Bayesian computation method-sequential Monte Carlo for data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud-Aerosol Interactions in Tropical Storms

During the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) of the Tropical Ocean and the Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program we measured cloud and aerosol particles aboard the NASA DC-8 over the warm pool of the western Pacific. Instruments on the aircraft included a condensation nuclei counter, optical particle counters, two-dimensional shadow probes and an ice crystal replicator. The size range covered by these instruments was from =0.01 micron to 6.4 mm diameter; particle shapes were determined for particles of sizes D greater than 1 micron.

Puesschel, R. F.↗

Synthesis of aerosol-cloud interactions over the southeast Atlantic throughout the seasonal cycle (Final Technical Report)

An analysis of the aerosol compositional, physical and optical datasets towards understanding why the single‐scattering‐albedo of smoke is so much lower over the southeast Atlantic than elsewhere, in particular the northern hemisphere. This includes data from the complementary NASA ORACLES aircraft campaign, which sampled closer to the African coast. The first analysis resulting from this prong of research was published earlier this year (Dobracki et al., 2023, ACP) and focused more on the free-tropospheric biomass burning aerosol (BBA). We primarily attributed the low SSA to a high number/mass fraction of black carbon, ranging from 15 to 40% of the total aerosol. We are further able to use other literature, the modified combustion efficiency, and the black carbon and carbon monoxide values to highlight a common source in dry, flame-efficient burning conditions of grasses. Condensation and coagulation of smaller aerosol particles onto the larger black carbon aerosols can also increased the SSA as the aerosol ages from 4 to 5 days. A comparison to data gathered over Ascension Island during the UK CLARIFY aircraft campaign indicates an organic aerosol loss relative to black carbon of about 50%. This is high compared to findings from other campaigns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the impacts of marine aerosols over the southeast Atlantic Ocean using a chemical transport model: implications for aerosol–cloud interactions

The southeast Atlantic region, characterized by persistent stratocumulus clouds, has one of the highest uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing and significant variability across climate models. In this study, we analyze the seasonally varying role of marine aerosol sources and identify key uncertainties in aerosol composition at cloud-relevant altitudes over the southeast Atlantic using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We evaluate simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and speciated aerosol concentrations against those collected from ground observations and aircraft campaigns such as LASIC, ORACLES, and CLARIFY, conducted during 2017. The model consistently underestimates AOD relative to AERONET, particularly at remote locations like Ascension Island. However, when compared with aerosol mass concentrations from aircraft campaigns during the biomass burning period, it performs adequately at cloud-relevant altitudes, with a normalized mean bias (NMB) between -3.5 % (CLARIFY) and -7.5 % (ORACLES). At these altitudes, in the model, organic aerosols (63 %) dominate during the biomass burning period, while sulfate (41 %) prevails during austral summer, when dimethylsulfide (DMS) emissions peak in the model. Our findings indicate that marine sulfate can account for up to 69 % of total sulfate during the high-DMS period. Sensitivity analyses indicate that refining DMS emissions and oxidation chemistry may increase sulfate aerosol produced from marine sources, highlighting that there remains large uncertainty as to the role of DMS emissions in the marine boundary layer. Additionally, we find marine primary organic aerosol emissions may substantially increase total organic aerosol concentrations, particularly during austral summer. This study underscores the imperative need to refine marine emissions and their chemical transformations, as aerosols from marine sources are a major component of total aerosols at cloud-relevant altitudes and may impact uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing over the southeast Atlantic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radar Reflectivity Simulated by a 2-D Spectra Bin Model: Sensitivity of Cloud-aerosol Interaction

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model with bin spectra microphysics is used to simulate mesoscale convective systems.The model uses explicit bins to represent size spectra of cloud nuclei, water drops, ice crystals, snow and graupel. Each hydrometeorite category is described by 33 mass bins. The simulations provide a unique data set of simulated raindrop size distribution in a realistic dynamic frame. Calculations of radar parameters using simulated drop size distribution serve as an evaluation of numerical model performance. In addition, the GCE bin spectra modes is a very useful tool to study uncertainties related to radar observations; all the environmental parameters are precisely known. In this presentation, we concentrate on the discussion of Z-R (ZDR-R) relation in the simulated systems. Due to computational limitations, the spectra bin model has been run in two dimensions with 31 stretched vertical layers and 1026 horizontal grid points (1 km resolution). Two different cases, one in midlatitude continent, the other in tropical ocean, have been simulated. The continental case is a strong convection which lasted for two hours. The oceanic case is a persistent system with more than 10 hours' life span. It is shown that the simulated Z-R (ZDR-R) relations generally agree with observations using radar and rain gauge data. The spatial and temporal variations of Z-R relation in different locations are also analyzed. Impact of aerosols on cloud formation and raindrop size distribution was studied. Both clean (low CCN) and dirty (high CCN) cases are simulated. The Z-R relation is shown to vary considerable in the initial CCN concentrations.

Li, Kiaowen↗

Biological particles and aerosol-cloud interactions in the Southern Great Plains

The United States Southern Great Plains (SGP) is the genesis for much of the warm season precipitation in the central and eastern United States. While atmospheric thermodynamics and large-scale dynamics play an important role in formation of precipitation, precipitation mechanisms are also sensitive to aerosols. Aerosols can suppress precipitation as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) or act as ice nucleating particles (INP) in deep convective clouds. This project focused on understanding the role of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP) in the region and its influence on cloud formation. Specifically, we focused on biological aerosol in the form of pollen, one type of PBAP that is emitted in large yet variable quantities from vegetation in the mid latitudes. Field observations provide evidence of pollen in the planetary boundary layer and pollen components in cloud droplets and fine particulate matter. Further, pollen grains can easily rupture when wet, forming smaller, sub pollen particles with sizes less than one micron. We evaluated the potential for PBAP events at the Department of Energy (DoE) SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) research facility due to the rich dataset available. We also developed model simulations that accounted for pollen emission and the generation of sub pollen particles, which have been shown to be both cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles. The proposed work was designed to address the following questions: 1. What are the physical and chemical signatures of biological aerosol such as pollen in SGP ARM measurements? 2. What is the role of pollen-derived particles on deep convection and precipitation in the Central US? Using measurements from the DoE SGP ARM site and recent airborne campaigns, we evaluated the signatures of pollen and pollen-derived aerosols on optical properties, cloud properties and precipitation (Subba et al., 2021). We identified pollen-driven events over the data record and used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with fully coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem) to conduct chemically realistic simulations of aerosols during and summer mesoscale convective events in the Southern Great Plains (Subba et al., in review). This work improved our understanding of the role of biological aerosol on clouds and precipitation in the Central United States and placed these results in context with anthropogenically-driven processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biological particles and aerosol-cloud interactions in the Southern Great Plains (Final Report)

The United States Southern Great Plains (SGP) is the genesis for much of the warm season precipitation in the central and eastern United States. While atmospheric thermodynamics and large-scale dynamics play an important role in formation of precipitation, precipitation mechanisms are also sensitive to aerosols. Aerosols can suppress precipitation as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) or act as ice nucleating particles (INP) in deep convective clouds. This project focused on understanding the role of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP) in the region and its influence on cloud formation. Specifically, we focused on biological aerosol in the form of pollen, one type of PBAP that is emitted in large yet variable quantities from vegetation in the mid latitudes. Field observations provide evidence of pollen in the planetary boundary layer and pollen components in cloud droplets and fine particulate matter. Further, pollen grains can easily rupture when wet, forming smaller, sub pollen particles with sizes less than one micron. We evaluated the potential for PBAP events at the Department of Energy (DoE) SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) research facility due to the rich dataset available. We also developed model simulations that accounted for pollen emission and the generation of sub pollen particles, which have been shown to be both cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles. The proposed work was designed to address the following questions: 1. What are the physical and chemical signatures of biological aerosol such as pollen in SGP ARM measurements? 2. What is the role of pollen-derived particles on deep convection and precipitation in the Central US? Using measurements from the DoE SGP ARM site and recent airborne campaigns, we evaluated the signatures of pollen and pollen-derived aerosols on optical properties, cloud properties and precipitation (Subba et al., 2021). We identified pollen-driven events over the data record and used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with fully coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem) to conduct chemically realistic simulations of aerosols during and summer mesoscale convective events in the Southern Great Plains (Subba et al., in review). This work improved our understanding of the role of biological aerosol on clouds and precipitation in the Central United States and placed these results in context with anthropogenically-driven processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗