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At least 91 records · Page 5

Inter-annual and Long-term Temperature Variations in the Mesopause Region at High Latitudes Generated by the Stratospheric QBO

The Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) simulates the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) that dominates the zonal circulation of the lower stratosphere at low latitudes. In the model, the QBO is generated with parameterized small-scale gravity waves (GW), which are partially augmented in 3D with planetary waves owing to baroclinic instability. Due to GW filtering, the QBO extends into the upper mesosphere, evident in UARS zonal wind and TIMED temperature measurements. While the QBO zonal winds are confined to equatorial latitudes, even in simulations with latitude-independent wave source, the associated temperature variations extend to high latitudes. The meridional circulation redistributes some of the QBO energy to focus it partially onto the Polar Regions. The resulting QBO temperature variations away from the equator tend to increase at higher altitudes to produce inter-annual variations that can exceed 5 K in the polar mesopause region -- and our 3D model simulations show that the effect is variable from year to year and can produce large differences between the two hemispheres, presumably due to interactions involving the seasonal variations. Modeling studies with the NSM have shown that long-term variations can also be generated by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles through OW node-filtering. A 30-month QBO, optimally synchronized by the 6-month Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO), thus produces a 5-year or semi-decadal (SD) oscillation -- and observational evidence for that has been provided by a recent analysis of stratospheric NCEP data. In a simulation with the 2D version of the NSM, this SD oscillation extends into the upper mesosphere, and we present results to show that the related temperature variations could contribute significantly to the long-term variations of the polar mesopause region. Quasi-decadal variations could furthermore arise from the modeled solar cycle modulations of the QBO and 12-month annual oscillation. Our numerical results are discussed in the context of the observed low summer temperatures reproduced by the model, to demonstrate that the above interannual and long-term variations could contribute significantly to the climatology of Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMC) investigated by the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) mission.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

Geothermal Exploration of Mount Baker Hot Springs Through Ground-Based Magnetic and Gravity Surveys

The Washington State Division of Geology and Earth Resources (WDGER), together with the USGS, Altarock Energy Inc., Colorado College, Temple University, Innovate Geothermal Ltd., University of British Columbia, and Western Washington University(WWU), conducted phase two of a geothermal play fairway exploration at three plays (Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens seismic zone, and Wind River valley) along the Washington Cascade Range. The Mount Baker (MB) play is an ideal location for further investigation as a potential geothermal resource due to the presence of thermal features, young volcanic centers, existing geothermal leases, accessibility, and its proximity to existing transmission lines at the Baker Lake Dam. The goal of phase II exploration at all three plays is to collect geologic and geophysical data to help constrain spatial changes in subsurface lithology and structures that may be associated with the geothermal systems. Furthermore, this paper discusses the geothermal potential of the southeast flank of Mount Baker, WA by interpreting newly collected ground-based gravity and magnetic data. The Mount Baker play was surveyed from July-September, 2016 by the USGS, WDGER, and WWU. Results of a detailed magnetic and gravity surveys of the region surrounding the Baker hot springs, the primary surface expression of the hydrothermal system, are presented here. Gravity data were collected at 495 stations in the study area amounting to an area of roughly 150 square km. Approximately 93 km of line magnetometer data were collected within the study area, over a dozen magnetic susceptibility measurements were taken at 50 locations and about 50 hand samples were collected for density measurements. Preliminary data and modeling suggest pronounced magnetic anomalies trending NE/SW, generally in line with previously mapped lineaments identified in LiDAR. We present a series of preliminary two-dimensional forward models of the gravity and magnetic data as well as a 3D inversion model of magnetic susceptibility and interpret these models in terms of the structural controls influencing the Baker hot springs and hydrothermal system.

Geophysics↗

CFD Modeling of Bi-Directional PMD inside Cryogenic Propellant Tanks Onboard Parabolic Flights

Future cryogenic propulsion systems will require efficient methods with which to transfer cryogenic propellants from a depot storage tank to a customer receiver tank to minimize cost and maximize reusability. The Reduced Gravity Cryogenic Transfer project is currently developing advanced cryogenic fluid management technology and developing and validating new numerical models for three phases of transfer: line chilldown, tank chilldown, and tank fill. Additionally, multiple liquid nitrogen (LN 2 ) parabolic flight transfer rigs are being designed by universities and NASA to investigate the gravitational sensitivities that exist in these three technologies. In order to maximize the collection of low-g data during flights, it is required to extract as much (LN 2 as possible from the supply tank, despite variable gravity levels. The purpose of this paper is to present computational fluid dynamics (CFD) volume of fluid simulations of (LN 2 behavior in the supply tank onboard parabolic flights to validate the optimal design of a bi-directional propellant management device (PMD) using the commercial software FLOW-3D. A parametric study is conducted on the effects of gravity level, fill level, pore size, open area, thickness, and type of baffle on PMD performance. Based on results, the PMD as designed exceeds the targeted expulsion efficiency.

Jason Hartwig↗

Discovering Blind Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region: An Integrated Geologic and Geophysical Approach for Establishing Geothermal Play Fairways: All Phases

Most geothermal resources in the Great Basin region of the western USA are blind, and thus the discovery of new commercial-grade systems requires synthesis of favorable characteristics for geothermal activity. The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity to identify promising areas for new development. This project integrated multiple datasets to apply the play fairway concept and assess geothermal potential in a large region of the Great Basin in Nevada. It is therefore referred to as the Nevada play fairway project. This project was a strong collaborative effort between several organizations, led by the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology at the University of Nevada, Reno, but with key support from the U.S. Geological Survey, ATLAS Geosciences, Inc,, Hi-Q Geophysical, Inc., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utah Geological Survey, and Innovative Geothermal Ltd. In Budget Period 1 of this project, available data for nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for local permeability, intermediate permeability, regional permeability, and thermal potential, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This initial work was aimed at reducing the risks in regional exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Budget Period 2 of the project involved detailed analysis of some of the most promising areas identified in Phase 1. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis. After reconnaissance of these areas, five of the most promising sites were selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques were employed in the detailed studies, including geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, gravity surveys, Lidar, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling. The goal of the detailed studies was to identify specific areas with the highest likelihood for high permeability and thermal fluids, such that drill sites could be targeted. Three main sets of predictive maps were generated for each detailed study area: 1) play fairway maps, 2) play fairway error maps, and 3) direct evidence maps. Local- and intermediate-scale permeability models were revised to reflect results of the detailed geologic, geophysical, and geochemical analyses. Budget Period 3 of the project involved more detailed geophysical analyses and temperature-gradient (TG) drilling in southeastern Gabbs Valley and northern Granite Springs Valley, deemed the two most promising sites, with the goal of providing preliminary validation of the play fairway methodology. In southeastern Gabbs Valley, the collocation of a favorable structural setting (displacement transfer zone and fault intersections), Quaternary faults, intersecting and terminating gravity gradients, magnetic low, shallow (2 m) temperature anomaly, low resistivity anomaly, and promising geothermometry from nearby water wells provided evidence for a blind system. Drilling of six TG holes defines an apparent geothermal system at this locality with temperatures as high as 124°C at 152 m. This system is blind, with no surface hot springs, fumaroles, or paleo-geothermal deposits. For northern Granite Springs Valley, a favorable structural setting (termination of a major Quaternary normal fault), terminating gravity gradient, magnetic gradient, newly discovered sinter deposits, nearby warm water wells, previously drilled TG holes in the vicinity, and promising geothermometry suggest a hidden system. Drilling of six new TG holes yields temperatures of ~96°C at ~250 m, suggesting the presence of a geothermal system. Major lessons learned in the course of this project include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable structural settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis should be refined as the exploration program vectors into the most promising sites and finer-scale data are acquired. In addition to producing copious amounts of data, this project resulted in 16 published papers, 10 abstracts, more than 40 presentations across the U.S. and abroad (including several keynote addresses), 2 Masters theses, and 7 media reports.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

3D Simulation: Microgravity Environments and Applications

Most, if not all, 3-D and Virtual Reality (VR) software programs are designed for one-G gravity applications. Space environments simulations require gravity effects of one one-thousandth to one one-million of that of the Earth's surface (10(exp -3) - 10(exp -6) G), thus one must be able to generate simulations that replicate those microgravity effects upon simulated astronauts. Unfortunately, the software programs utilized by the National Aeronautical and Space Administration does not have the ability to readily neutralize the one-G gravity effect. This pre-programmed situation causes the engineer or analysis difficulty during micro-gravity simulations. Therefore, microgravity simulations require special techniques or additional code in order to apply the power of 3D graphic simulation to space related applications. This paper discusses the problem and possible solutions to allow microgravity 3-D/VR simulations to be completed successfully without program code modifications.

Hunter, Steve L.↗

Distortion of Magnetic Fields in a Starless Core II: 3D Magnetic Field Structure of FeSt 1-457

Three-dimensional (3D) magnetic field information on molecular clouds and cores is important for revealing their kinematical stability (magnetic support) against gravity, which is fundamental for studying the initial conditions of star formation. In the present study, the 3D magnetic field structure of the dense starless core FeSt 1-457 is determined based on the near-infrared polarimetric observations of the dichroic polarization of background stars and simple 3D modeling. With an obtained angle of line-of-sight magnetic inclination axis θ{sub inc} of 45{sup ∘}±10{sup ∘} and previously determined plane-of-sky magnetic field strength B{sub pol} of 23.8 ± 12.1 μG, the total magnetic field strength for FeSt 1-457 is derived to be 33.7 ± 18.0 μG. The critical mass of FeSt 1-457, evaluated using both magnetic and thermal/turbulent support is M{sub cr}=3.70±0.92 M{sub ⊙}, which is identical to the observed core mass, M{sub core}=3.55±0.75 M{sub ⊙}. We thus conclude that the stability of FeSt 1-457 is in a condition close to the critical state. Without infalling gas motion and no associated young stars, the core is regarded to be in the earliest stage of star formation, i.e., the stage just before the onset of dynamical collapse following the attainment of a supercritical condition. These properties could make FeSt 1-457 one of the best starless cores for future studies of the initial conditions of star formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Kimberlina 1.2 CCUS Geophysical Models and Synthetic Data Sets

This synthetic multi-scale and multi-physics data set was produced in collaboration with teams at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Colorado School of Mines through the Science-informed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real-Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. Data are associated with the following publication: Alumbaugh, D., Gasperikova, E., Crandall, D., Commer, M., Feng, S., Harbert, W., Li, Y., Lin, Y., and Samarasinghe, S., “The Kimberlina Synthetic Geophysical Model and Data Set for CO2 Monitoring Investigations”, The Geoscience Data Journal, 2023, DOI: 10.1002/gdj3.191. The dataset uses the Kimberlina 1.2 CO2 reservoir flow model simulations based on a hypothetical CO2 storage site in California (Birkholzer et al., 2011; Wainwright et al., 2013). Geophysical properties models (P- and S-wave seismic velocities, saturated density, and electrical resistivity) were produced with an approach similar to that of Yang et al. (2019) and Gasperikova et al. (2022) for 100 Kimberlina 1.2 reservoir models. Links to individual resources are provided below: [CO2 Saturation Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-co2-saturation-models); Resistivity Models – [part 1](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-resistivity-models-part-1), [part 2](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-resistivity-models-part-2), and [part 3](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-resistivity-models-part-3); [Vp Velocity Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-vp-velocity-models); [Vs Velocity Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-vs-velocity-models); [Density Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-density-models). The 3D distributions of geophysical properties for the 33 time stamps of the SIM001 model were used to generate synthetic seismic, gravity, and electromagnetic (EM) responses for 33 times between zero and 200 years. Synthetic surface seismic data were generated using 2D and 3D finite-difference codes that simulate the acoustic wave equation (Moczo et al., 2007). 2D data were simulated for six point-pressure sources along a 2D line with 10 m receiver spacing and a time spacing of 0.0005 s. 3D simulations were completed for 25 surface pressure sources using a source separation of 1 km in both the x and y directions and a time spacing of 0.001 s. Links to individual resources are provided below: [2D velocity models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-2d-velocity-models) and [2D surface seismic data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-2d-surface-seismic-data). [3D velocity models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-velocity-models), and 3D seismic data [year0](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year0), [year1](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year1), [year2](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year2), [year5](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year5), [year10](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year10), [year15](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year15), [year20](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year20), [year25](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year25), [year30](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year30), [year35](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year35), [year40](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year40), [year45](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year45), [year49](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year49), [year50](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year50), [year51](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year51), [year52](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year52), [year55](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year55), [year60](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year60), [year65](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year65), [year70](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year70), [year75](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year75), [year80](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year80), [year85](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year85), [year90](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year90), [year95](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year95), [year100](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year100), [year110](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year110), [year120](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year120), [year130](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year130), [year140](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year140), [year150](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year150), [year175](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year175), [year200](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year200). The Python scripts to read these models and data are provided [here](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-python-scripts). EM simulations used a borehole-to-surface survey configuration, with the source located near the reservoir level and receivers on the surface using the code developed by Commer and Newman (2008). Pseudo-2D data for the source at [2500 m](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-pseudo-2d-csem-data-tz2500m) and [3025 m](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-pseudo-2d-csem-data-tz3025m), used a 2D inline receiver configuration to simulate a response over 3D resistivity models. The [3D data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-csem-data) contain electric fields generated by borehole sources at monitoring well locations and measured over a surface receiver grid. Vector gravity data, both on the surface and in boreholes, were simulated using a modeling code developed by Rim and Li (2015). The simulation scenarios were parallel to those used for the EM: [pseudo-2D data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-gravity-data) were calculated along the same lines and within the same boreholes, and [3D data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-gravity-data) were simulated over 3D models on the surface and in three monitoring wells. A series of [synthetic well logs](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-well-logs) of CO2 saturation, acoustic velocity, density, and induction resistivity in the injection well and three monitoring wells are also provided at 0, 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, and 20 years after the initiation of injection. These were constructed by combining the low-frequency trend of the geophysical models with the high-frequency variations of actual well logs collected in the Kimberlina 1 well that was drilled at the proposed site. Measurements of permeability and pore connectivity were made on cores of Vedder Sandstone, which forms the primary reservoir unit: [CT micro scans](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-ct-micro-scans-of-vedder-formation) and [Industrial CT Images](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-industrial-ct-images-vedder-formation). These measurements provide the range of scales in the otherwise synthetic data set to be as close to a real-world situation as possible. References: Birkholzer, J.T., Zhou, Q., Cortis, A. and Finsterle, S., 2011. A sensitivity study on regional pressure buildup from large-scale CO2 storage projects. Energy Procedia, 4, 4371-4378. Commer, M., and Newman, G.A., 2008. New advances in three-dimensional controlled-source electromagnetic inversion, Geophysical Journal International, 172, 513-535. Gasperikova, E., Appriou, D., Bonneville, A., Feng, Z., Huang, L., Gao, K., Yang, X., Daley, T., 2022, Sensitivity of geophysical techniques for monitoring secondary CO2 storage plumes, Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control, Volume 114, 103585, ISSN 1750-5836, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2022.103585. Moczo, P., J.O. Robertsson and L. Eisner, 2007, The finite-difference time-domain method for modeling of seismic wave propagation: Advances in geophysics, 48, 421-516. Rim, H., and Y. Li, 2015, Advantages of borehole vector gravity in density imaging, Geophysics, 80, G1-G13. Wainwright, H. M.; Finsterle, S.; Zhou, Q.; Birkholzer, J. T., 2013. Modeling the Performance of Large-Scale CO2 Storage Systems: A Comparison of Different Sensitivity Analysis Methods. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 17, 189205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2013.05.007, DOI: 10.18141/1603331. Yang, X., Buscheck, T.A., Mansoor, K., Wang, Z., Gao, K., Huang, L., Appriou, D., and Carroll, S.A., 2019. Assessment of geophysical monitoring methods for detection of brine and CO2 leakage in drinking water aquifers, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 90, 102803, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.102803.

CCUS↗

Influence of local capillary trapping on containment system effectiveness

Immobilization of CO 2 injected into deep subsurface storage reservoirs is a critical component of risk assessment for geologic CO 2 storage (GCS). Local capillary trapping (LCT) is a recently established mode of immobilization that arises when CO 2 migrates due to buoyancy through heterogeneous storage reservoirs. This project sought to assess the amount and extent of LCT expected in storage formations under a range of injection conditions, and to confirm the persistence of LCT if the seal overlying the reservoir were to lose its integrity. Numerical simulation using commercial reservoir simulation software was conducted to assess the influence of injection. Laboratory experiments, modeling and numerical simulation were conducted to assess the effect of compromised seal integrity. Bench-scale (0.6 m by 0.6 m by 0.03 m) experiments with surrogate fluids provided the first empirical confirmation of the key concepts underlying LCT: accumulation of buoyant nonwetting phase at above residual saturations beneath capillary barriers in a variety of structures, which remains immobile under normal capillary pressure gradients. Immobilization of above-residual saturations is a critical distinction between LCT and the more familiar “residual saturation trapping.” To estimate the possible extent of LCT in a storage reservoir an algorithm was developed to identify all potential local traps, given the spatial distribution of capillary entry pressure in the reservoir. The algorithm assumes that the driving force for CO 2 migration can be represented as a single value of “critical capillary entry pressure” P c,entry crit , such that cells with capillary entry pressure greater/less than P c,entry crit act as barriers/potential traps during CO 2 migration. At intermediate values of P c,entry crit , the barrier regions become more laterally extensive in the reservoir, approaching a percolation threshold while non-barrier regions remain numerous. The maximum possible extent of LCT thus occurs at P c,entry crit near this threshold. Testing predictions of this simple algorithm against full-physics simulations of buoyancy-driven CO 2 migration support the concept of critical capillary entry pressure. However, further research is needed to determine whether a single value of critical capillary entry pressure always applies and how that value can be determined a priori. Simulations of injection into high-resolution (cells 0.3 m on a side) 2D and 3D heterogeneous domains show two characteristic behaviors. At small gravity numbers (vertical flow velocity much less than horizontal flow velocity) the CO 2 fills local traps as well as regions that would act as local barriers if CO 2 were moving only due to buoyancy. When injection ceases, the CO 2 migrates vertically to establish large saturations within local traps and residual saturation elsewhere. At large gravity numbers, the CO 2 invades a smaller portion of the perforated interval. Within this smaller swept zone the local barriers are not invaded, but local traps are filled to large saturation during injection and remain during post-injection gravity-driven migration. The small gravity number behavior is expected in the region within 100 m of a vertical injection well at anticipated rates of injection for commercial GCS. Simulations of leakage scenarios (through-going region of large permeability imposed in overlying seal) indicate that LCT persists (i.e. CO 2 remains held in a large fraction of the local iv traps) and the persistence is independent of injection rate during storage. Simulations of leakage for the limiting case of CO 2 migrating vertically from an areally extensive emplacement in the lower portion of a reservoir showed similar strong persistence of LCT. This research has two broad implications for GCS. The first is that LCT can retain a significant fraction of the CO 2 stored in a reservoir – above and beyond the residual saturation -- if the overlying seal were to fail. Thus frameworks for risk assessment should be extended to account for LCT. The second implication is that compared to pressure driven flow in reservoirs, CO 2 migration and trapping behave in a qualitatively different manner in heterogeneous reservoirs when buoyancy is the dominant driving force for flow. Thus simulations of GCS that neglect capillary heterogeneity will fail to capture important features of the CO 2 plume. While commercial reservoir simulation software can account for fine scale capillary heterogeneity, it has not been designed to work efficiently with such domains, and no simulators can handle fine-scale resolution throughout the reservoir. A possible way to upscale the migration and trapping is to apply an “effective residual saturation” to coarse-scale grids. While the extent of overall immobilization can be correlated in this way, all coarser grids failed to capture the distance traveled by the migrating CO 2 for large gravity number. Thus it remains unclear how best to account for LCT in the routine simulation work-flow that will be needed for large-scale GCS. Alternatives meriting investigation include streamline methods, reduced-physics proxies (e.g. particle tracking), and biased invasion percolation algorithms, which are based on precisely the capillary heterogeneity essential for LCT.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulation-Aided Design and Interpretation of Results of Microgravity-Based Solidification Experiments

The preparation and interpretation of microgravity experiments conducted on the International Space Station (ISS) can be challenging because of the remote location of the equipment. Although a “ground unit” is typically available on Earth, it is not located in the laboratory of the principal investigator. Furthermore, test experiments in the ground unit cannot fully duplicate heat transfer conditions of the weightless environment, and thus be a reliable reference for experiment design. Under such conditions, numerical simulations are a valuable tool both for preparing the experiments and interpreting the results obtained under terrestrial and micro-gravity conditions. In this work, we developed a detailed 3D model of the “SUBSA” furnace located at the ISS, and demonstrate its use in our present investigation which includes melt growth and vapor growth of InI crystals on the ISS. In 2002, the SUBSA furnace was designed and built for the growth of InSb crystals in the Microgravity Science Glovebox (MSG) at the ISS. The SUBSA furnace features a transparent section without heating elements, where the axial temperature gradient is high. In our present investigation, we have used the same furnace to grow four InI crystals from the melt, and two InI crystals from the vapor phase (2018-2021). InI crystals have ~20 times lower thermal conductivity than InSb crystals. As a result, during melt growth, the InI crystals were exposed to extremely high temperature gradients. To reduce the axial temperature gradient, we added external jackets made from high thermal conductivity material to the growth ampoules. The SUBSA furnace could not be modeled as asymmetric because of its rectangular shape and right-angled transparent section, which contains a convoluted geometry. The rectangular shape of the transparent section further complicates modelling of radiative heat transfer, which dominates in the zone. At present, numerical simulations are being conducted to resolve an apparent discrepancy between the readings of the 5 thermocouples located in the SUBSA furnace, and the observed position of the solid and molten material. The 3D simulation will be presented, along with the calibration and growth experiment results conducted in microgravity and in the SUBSA ground unit. The developed model should be useful for upcoming microgravity investigations planned to be conducted in the SUBSA facility.

V Riabov↗

Progress Report on the Nevada Play Fairway Project: Integrated Geological, Geochemical, and Geophysical Analyses of Possible New Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region

The Great Basin region of the western USA is capable of producing much greater amounts of geothermal energy than the current ~670 MW from ~25 power plants. Most geothermal resources in this region are blind, and thus the favorable characteristics for geothermal activity must be synthesized and methodologies need to be developed to discover new commercial-grade systems. In the Nevada play fairway project, nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for local permeability, regional permeability, and heat, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This work is aimed at reducing the risks in geothermal exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified across the region for further analysis. Five of the most promising sites have been selected for detailed studies: Granite Springs Valley, Sou Hills, southern Gabbs Valley, Crescent Valley, and Steptoe Valley. Multiple techniques, including detailed geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, detailed gravity surveys, LiDAR, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling, are now being employed in these areas. The ultimate goal of these detailed studies is to determine the most likely areas for high permeability thermal fluids such that potential drill sites can be targeted. Potential new blind systems discovered in this project include southern Gabbs Valley and Granite Springs Valley currently undergoing detailed study, as well as step-overs in the Dun Glen area and along the west flank of the Humboldt Range.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The Nevada Play Fairway Project — Phase II: Initial Search for New Viable Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region, Western USA

Estimates suggest that the Great Basin region is capable of producing much greater amounts of geothermal energy than the current ~600 MW from ~24 power plants. Because most of the geothermal resources in this region are blind, it is imperative that the favorable characteristics for geothermal activity be synthesized and methodologies developed to discover new robust systems. Nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal play fairway map of a large transect across the Great Basin region (96,000 km2) from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets to delineate rankings for local permeability, regional permeability, and heat, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). The primary objective of this work was to reduce the risks in geothermal exploration and thus facilitate discovery of commercial-grade, blind geothermal fields. Two dozen highly prospective areas, including both known systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, have been identified across the region for further analysis, of which several will be selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques, including detailed geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, detailed gravity surveys, LiDAR, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling, are being employed in the detailed studies. Initial work on the detailed studies has begun and will proceed over the next year.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Discovering New Geothermal Systems In The Great Basin Region, Western USA: An Integrated Approach For Establishing Geothermal Play Fairways

The Great Basin of the western USA is capable of producing much greater amounts of geothermal energy than the current ~670 MW from ~25 power plants. Most geothermal resources in this region are blind, and thus the favorable characteristics for geothermal activity must be synthesized and methodologies developed to discover new commercial-grade systems (>130oC). The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity as a means of identifying promising areas for new development. In the Nevada play fairway project, nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for heat and local, intermediate, and regional permeability, which collectively defined the play fairways. From the regional map, 24 highly prospective areas, including known undeveloped systems and unknown potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis. Five particularly promising sites were then selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques, including geologic mapping, Quaternary fault analysis, 2-m temperature surveys, gravity surveys, LiDAR, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling, were employed in these areas to define likely sites for high permeability and define highly prospective drilling targets. Local and intermediate permeability models were revised to reflect results of detailed analyses and generate new detailed play fairway maps. Lessons learned include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis is critical at multiple scales, providing a means to select regional prospects as well as vectoring into drilling targets at individual sites. Based on our detailed studies, several potential new, high temperature systems were discovered. However, TG drilling is needed to confirm commercial grade resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Modeling the Dynamics of the Middle Atmosphere and Lower Thermosphere Under the Influence of Gravity Waves

Our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which extends from the ground up into the thermosphere, is non-linear, time-dependent and has been employed for 2D and 3D applications. The standard version of the NSM incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small scale gravity waves (GW), but planetary waves generated in the troposphere have also been incorporated. The NSM has been applied to describe: (1) the anomalous seasonal variations of the zonal circulation and temperature in the upper mesosphere, (2) the equatorial oscillations (quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations (QBO and SAO)) extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, (3) the diurnal and semi-diurnal tides, and (4) the planetary waves that are excited in the mesosphere. With the emphasis to provide understanding, we present here results from numerical experiments with the NSM that shed light on the GW processes that are of central importance in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. These are our conclusions: (1) The large semiannual variations in the diurnal tide (DT), with peak amplitudes observed around equinox, are produced primarily by GW interactions that involve, in part, planetary waves. The DT, like planetary waves, tends to be amplified by GW momentum deposition, which reduces also the vertical wavelength, but variations in eddy viscosity associated with GW interactions are also important. (2) The semidiurnal tide (SDT) and its phase in particular, is strongly influenced by the mean zonal circulation. The SDT, individually, is also amplified by GW. But the DT filters out GW such that the GW interaction effectively reduces the amplitude of the SDT, producing a strong nonlinear interaction between the DT and SDT. (3) Without external time dependent energy or momentum sources, planetary waves (PW) are generated in the model for zonal wavenumbers 1 to 4, which have amplitudes in the mesosphere above 50 km as large as 40 m/s and periods between 50 and 2 days. The waves are generated primarily during solstice conditions, which indicates that the baroclinic instability (associated with the GW induced reversal in the latitudinal temperature gradient) is playing an important role. Numerical experiment show that GW, directly, also greatly amplify the PW. A common feature of the PW generated in summer and winter is that their vertical wavelengths throughout the mesosphere are large, which indicates that the waves are not propagating freely but are generated throughout the region. Another common feature is that the PW propagate preferentially westward in summer and eastward in winter, being launched from the westward and eastward zonal winds that prevail respectively in summer and winter at altitudes below 80 km. (4) Planetary waves generated internally by baroclinic instability and GW interaction produce large amplitude modulations of the DT and SDT. In summary we conclude that GW play major roles in generating and amplifying the dynamical components in the MLT region and, acting principally through wave filtering, produce important non-linear interactions between the components.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Why are we still using 3D masses for cluster cosmology?

ABSTRACT The abundance of clusters of galaxies is highly sensitive to the late-time evolution of the matter distribution, since clusters form at the highest density peaks. However, the 3D cluster mass cannot be inferred without deprojecting the observations, introducing model-dependent biases and uncertainties due to the mismatch between the assumed and the true cluster density profile and the neglected matter along the sightline. Since projected aperture masses can be measured directly in simulations and observationally through weak lensing, we argue that they are better suited for cluster cosmology. Using the Mira–Titan suite of gravity-only simulations, we show that aperture masses correlate strongly with 3D halo masses, albeit with large intrinsic scatter due to the varying matter distribution along the sightline. Nonetheless, aperture masses can be measured ≈2–3 times more precisely from observations, since they do not require assumptions about the density profile and are only affected by the shape noise in the weak lensing measurements. We emulate the cosmology dependence of the aperture mass function directly with a Gaussian process. Comparing the cosmology sensitivity of the aperture mass function and the 3D halo mass function for a fixed survey solid angle and redshift interval, we find the aperture mass sensitivity is higher for Ωm and $w_a$, similar for σ8, ns, and $w_0$, and slightly lower for h. With a carefully calibrated aperture mass function emulator, cluster cosmology analyses can use cluster aperture masses directly, reducing the sensitivity to model-dependent mass calibration biases and uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Basin and Range Investigation for Developing Geothermal Energy: Exploration Data

This data package includes exploration material from the Basin & Range Investigation for Developing Geothermal Energy [in Hidden Systems] project (BRIDGE), which is part of a broader initiative to advance the exploration of hidden geothermal resources in the Basin & Range Province of the western U.S. Data modalities include a helicopter-borne time-domain electromagnetic survey, magnetotellurics, 2-meter temperature measurements, ground-based gravity and legacy aeromagnetic surveys, geochemistry, geologic mapping, LiDAR analysis, 3D models, associated geospatial data, and a bibliography of existing data and references utilized in prospect characterization and conceptual modeling. Key files are in CSV, Geosoft, and Geotools formats. Please refer to READMEs for dataset-specific information. Where applicable, acquisition data and inversion models for a particular prospect or area of interest are organized separately. This BRIDGE data package is the product of a collaboration led by Sandia National Laboratories with partners from Geologica Geothermal Group, Inc., the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office, and consultants Steven Sewell (Australis Geoscience Ltd) and William Cumming (Cumming Geoscience). The project's areas of interest (AOIs) are based off priority areas of interest in the southwestern portion of the Nevada Play Fairway map, distribution across tectonic provinces, accessibility, and the project team's extensive experience in the region. AOIs cover about a dozen basins that include unexplored prospects, partially explored prospects, and some developed analogue resources that provide validation cases. Many unexplored and partially explored prospects are on U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) land, though adjacent lands are included as well.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Seismic Characterization of the Nevada National Security Site Using Joint Body Wave, Surface Wave, and Gravity Inversion

As a part of the series of Source Physics Experiments (SPE) conducted on the Nevada National Security Site in southern Nevada, we have developed a local–to–regional scale seismic velocity model of the site and surrounding area. Accurate earth models are critical for modeling sources like the SPE to investigate the role of earth structure on the propagation and scattering of seismic waves. We combine seismic body waves, surface waves, and gravity data in a joint inversion procedure to solve for the optimal 3D seismic compressional and shear–wave velocity structures and earthquake locations subject to model smoothness constraints. Earthquakes, which are relocated as part of the inversion, provide P – and S –body–wave absolute and differential travel times. Active source experiments in the region augment this dataset with P –body–wave absolute times and surface–wave dispersion data. Dense ground–based gravity observations and surface–wave dispersion derived from ambient noise in the region fill in many areas where body–wave data are sparse. In general, the top 1–2 km of the surface is relatively poorly sampled by the body waves alone. However, the addition of gravity and surface waves to the body–wave dataset greatly enhances structural resolvability in the near surface. Here, we discuss the methodology we developed for simultaneous inversion of these disparate data types and briefly describe results of the inversion in the context of previous work in the region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effect of Dietary Countermeasures and Impact of Gravity on Renal Calculi Size Distributions Predicted by PBE-System and PBE-CFD Models

Renal stone disease is not only a concern on earth but can conceivably pose a serious risk to the astronauts health and safety in Space. In this work, two different deterministic models based on a Population Balance Equation (PBE) analysis of renal stone formation are developed to assess the risks of critical renal stone incidence for astronauts during space travel. In the first model, the nephron is treated as a continuous mixed suspension mixed product removal crystallizer and the PBE for the nucleating, growing and agglomerating renal calculi is coupled to speciation calculations performed by JESS. Predictions of stone size distributions in the kidney using this model indicate that the astronaut in microgravity is at noticeably greater but still subcritical risk and recommend administration of citrate and augmented hydration as effective means of minimizing and containing this risk. In the second model, the PBE analysis is coupled to a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model for flow of urine and transport of Calcium and Oxalate in the nephron to predict the impact of gravity on the stone size distributions. Results presented for realistic 3D tubule and collecting duct geometries, clearly indicate that agglomeration is the primary mode of size enhancement in both 1g and microgravity. 3D numerical simulations seem to further indicate that there will be an increased number of smaller stones developed in microgravity that will likely pass through the nephron in the absence of wall adhesion. However, upon reentry to a 1g (Earth) or 38g (Mars) partial gravitational fields, the renal calculi can lag behind the urinary flow in tubules that are adversely oriented with respect to the gravitational field and grow agglomerate to large sizes that are sedimented near the wall with increased propensity for wall adhesion, plaque formation, and risk to the astronauts.

Renal Stones↗