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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Electrolyzers in the System Advisor Model (SAM): A Techno-Economic Potential Study

A technoeconomic analysis of grid to low temperature electrolysis (Grid-LTE), photovoltaic to low temperature electrolysis (PV-LTE), concentrating solar power to high temperature electrolysis (CSP-HTSE) and a concentrating solar power with PV to high temperature electrolysis (CSP-PV-HTSE) centralized hydrogen production systems are analyzed to assess the economics of system and to provide a baseline for comparing these technologies against hydrogen production cost targets. A framework integrating the system advisor model (SAM) and US Department of Energy hydrogen production models (H2A) is developed to assess these systems. The hydrogen levelized cost given current and future assumptions for technology cost and performance is evaluated at optimal system configurations. The framework described in this report integrates SAM with H2A electrolyzer technologies and provides analysts a detailed technoeconomic method to analyze concentrating and photovoltaic solar technologies to produce energy that are directly coupled to LTE and HTSEs that use that energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The baseline hydrogen levelized cost (HLCs) for the GRID-LTE, PV-LTE, CSP-HTSE, and CSP-PV-HTSE systems in Daggett, CA are 2.82, 3.86, 3.68, and 2.90 $\$$USD 2016/kg H2 and 2.50, 2.13, 2.84, 2.15 $\$$USD 2016/kg H2 in the 2020 and 2050 scenarios respectively. To achieve the $\$$2/kg H2 target in locations with excellent solar resources, cost parameters values aligned with aggressive R&D targets will need to be achieved for all the systems configurations. In Daggett, PV costs of $\$$0.68 /Wac or moderate ATB PV CAPEX projections result in HLCs of $\$$2 /kg H2. Similarly for PV-MSALT-HTSE systems, $\$$0.60 /Wac result in $\$$2/kg H2. For the MSALT-HTSE systems, better than aggressive 2050 ATB salt tower CAPEX projections would be needed to reach $\$$2/kg H2. Molten salt tower capital costs of $\$$2400/kW would enable $\$$2/kg H2 in 2050.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Department of Energy’s Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap

The science is clear that significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions are needed to moderate the severe impacts of ongoing climate change. Bold action is needed, and the Biden Administration has set goals of 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. The U.S. Long-Term Strategy (LTS) presents multiple pathways to a net-zero economy by no later than 2050. Addressing environmental justice and energy equity will be integral to meeting these climate goals. The United States’ overall industrial decarbonization strategy will support the Biden Administration’s Justice40 Initiative, which pledges that at least 40% of overall benefits from federal investments in climate and clean energy will be delivered to disadvantaged communities. The U.S. net-zero GHG 2050 goal, while ambitious, is achievable and will provide important benefits for all Americans in terms of public health, economic growth, reduced conflict from climate-related disasters, and quality of life. While this roadmap focuses on GHG emissions, other pollutant emissions will also need to be addressed as industry decarbonizes. Developing new technologies to reduce GHG emissions is an important opportunity to address other environmental issues and inequities. DOE is currently focusing on energy and environmental justice in complementary programs and initiatives. The U.S. industrial sector is considered a “difficult-to-decarbonize” sector of the energy economy, in part because of the diversity of energy inputs that feed into a heterogenous array of industrial processes and operations. In 2020, the industrial sector accounted for 33% of the nation’s primary energy use and 30% of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scenarios of Nuclear Energy Use in the United States for the 21st Century

The uncertainty in the cost of nuclear energy coinciding with efforts to address climate change are contributing to the uncertainty in the future role of nuclear energy in the US electricity system and the response to addressing global climate change. Sensitivity cases of alternative nuclear capital costs, ranging from 2600 to 6600 $\$ $/kW, were investigated with scenarios of alternative carbon mitigation policies, including 50, 100, and 150 $\$ $/tCO 2 carbon tax cases and economy-wide net-zero goals by 2050, 2060, and 2070 for the US. The resulting US nuclear power capacity ranged from 130 to 240 GW in 2050 and 90 to 450 GW in 2100 from nuclear cost sensitivity cases without carbon mitigation policies. Imposing policies to achieve the decarbonization of electricity and net-zero emission goals increased the range of nuclear power capacity from 190 to 460 GW in 2050 and 210 to 850 GW by 2100, where the range is from the low and high nuclear cost cases. Carbon penalties beyond 100 $\$ $/tCO 2 had a diminishing role on the expansion of nuclear power as the electricity sector becomes fully decarbonized. The 50 $\$ $/tCO 2 tax had the nuclear capital cost equivalency of 1000 $\$ $/kW reduction, while the 100 $\$ $/tCO 2 tax had the equivalency of 2000 $\$ $/kW reduction. Net-zero goals increased the contribution of nuclear power due to the increase in total electricity demand, but the delay in the timing of net-zero did not significantly affect the role of nuclear in the long-term. All net-zero goals were similar in their energy system impact with resulting carbon tax levels reaching 300 $\$ $/tCO 2 . Electricity is fully decarbonized in the net-zero scenarios and carbon pricing beyond 100 to 150 $\$ $/tCO 2 had little influence on the additional deployment of nuclear power. Regardless of the carbon policy, however, nuclear capital cost reductions had a clear and pronounced impact on the expanded deployment of nuclear power under all scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Challenge Ahead: A Critical Perspective on Meeting U.S. Growth Targets for Sustainable Aviation Fuel

With demand for jet fuel expected to more than double by 2050 and triple by 2070, continued and accelerated efforts to decarbonize the global aviation sector are needed to curtail rising emissions and avert the worst outcomes of climate change. In response to this call-to-action, the United States has unveiled the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge, which seeks to expedite the development of alternative fuel pathways that offer a minimum of a 50% reduction in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional jet fuel. However, there is growing concern on whether sufficient biomass will be readily available to satisfy the projected sharp rise in demand for SAF. Carbon dioxide point-source emissions combined with rising supply from direct air capture efforts have the potential to complement and offset any supply gaps for biomass-derived SAF and other use cases. Independent of the chosen feedstock and conversion technology, numerous challenges persist across SAF production in seeking to drive down fuel cost and carbon intensity. To hit the 2030 target of 3 billion gal/yr, this means about a 100% compound annual growth rate in volumetric SAF production (about 130 times scale-up) will need to be realized. To achieve the stretch goal of 35 billion gallons of SAF per year by 2050, volumetric production must increase by a factor of 12 from the 3-billion-gal/year 2030 target of SAF Grand Challenge. The comparatively longer runway for 2050 combined with significant production volume growth suggests a more inclusive "all-hands-on-deck"-style approach will likely play a role. A key component in success lies in the coordinated research, development, demonstration, and deployment efforts by multiple federal agencies and industry partnerships.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2024 Status Update [Slides]

This report provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) and has been expanded from previous editions to also cover 100% clean electricity standards (CES) adopted by a growing number of states. The report, published in slide-deck form along with accompanying data files, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs. The 2023 edition presents historical data through year-end 2023 and projections out to 2050. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: -Evolution of state RPS and CES programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies, often by adopting higher targets and/or broader CES policies. Among the 29 states plus DC with an RPS, 16 have RPS targets of at least 50% of retail sales, and 4 states have a 100% RPS. An additional 16 states have adopted a broader 100% CES. -Historical impacts on renewables development: Almost half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is nominally associated with state RPS requirements. That percentage has declined over time to 35% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2023, though in certain regions RPS policies continue to play a dominant role in driving RE growth. -Future RPS and CES demand and incremental needs: The combined demand for clean electricity from RPS and CES policies will grow from roughly 500 TWh today to 1700 TWh by 2050. Accounting for current supplies—including existing nuclear and hydroelectric generation eligible for CES targets—RPS and CES policies will require 900 TWh of new clean electricity by 2050, equivalent to roughly 3x the historical rate of RPS-buildout. -RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. Most CES targets are not yet in force, and so little compliance experience to-date. -REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs remained at roughly $\$40$/MWh over the past year, just below ACP rates in the larger state markets, while PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise, reaching $\$35$/MWh by year-end 2023 and surpassing ACP levels in some states. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC. -RPS compliance costs: RPS compliance costs average roughly 4% of retail electricity bills across RPS states, though vary widely from state to state, with the highest costs (11-12% of retail bills) in states with solar carve-outs and high SREC prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

SCRES Energy Quest Workshop (Technical Report)

Energy Quest: Sitka’s Path to 2050 is a game based public engagement tool developed as part of the Sitka Community Renewable Energy Strategy and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project Cohort 3. Designed for Sitka’s isolated island microgrid, which is powered primarily by hydropower and depends on imported diesel for backup, the game translated complex long term energy planning questions into an interactive format. In facilitated workshops, residents built energy roadmaps to 2050, explored tradeoffs, and expressed priorities around four themes: affordability, reliability, self sufficiency, and innovation. Across sessions, participants showed strong support for increasing local self sufficiency and resilience, even when this required balancing near term affordability with long term investments. They emphasized reducing dependence on imported diesel, making better use of existing hydropower, and considering new renewable generation such as solar, wind, and additional hydropower. Survey and game responses also highlighted interest in using surplus hydropower to support new industries, expanding electrification of heating and transportation, and exploring emerging technologies and green fuels. The report organizes these findings into four scenario themes to guide Sitka’s 2050 energy planning. Affordability focuses on managing rate impacts, efficiency, and conservation. Reliability addresses diversified generation, backup power, and energy security. Self sufficiency emphasizes distributed generation and reduced reliance on imported fuels. Innovation explores new technologies, marine based energy solutions, and low carbon fuels. By grounding future planning in these community derived themes, Energy Quest shows how a game based approach can make technical energy planning more accessible and inclusive for remote communities. For questions about the game board and piece production email Dr. Sarah Troise (sarah.troise@pnnl.gov)

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy Efficiency as a Foundational Technology Pillar for Industrial Decarbonization

The U.S. government aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to reduce the severe impacts of climate change. The U.S. industrial sector will become a focal point for decarbonization since it accounts for 33% of the nation’s primary energy use and 30% of its energy-related CO2 emissions. Industrial emissions are also expected to increase by 15% through 2050, making the industrial sector a logical target for decarbonization efforts. Energy efficiency technology pathways provide low-cost, foundational routes to decarbonization that can be implemented immediately. Energy efficiency technology pathways, such as strategic energy management, system efficiency, smart manufacturing, material efficiency, and combined heat and power, are well established and would immediately reduce energy use and emissions. However, their role in the aggressive net-zero decarbonization pathway for the industrial sector is still unclear. This study aims to address energy efficiency pathways for decarbonization, and reviews studies related to these technologies for industrial decarbonization through 2050. This study identifies different strategies for the industrial sector in general and that are specific to six energy-intensive industries: iron and steel; chemical; food and beverage; petroleum refining; pulp and paper; and cement. Finally, a path toward the successful implementation of energy efficiency technologies is outlined.

Strategic energy management↗
DOE OSTI2026

Marginal Soils Index Analysis & Geospatial Data

This data package contains output files associated with Mongird et al. (in prep) organized into four dataset directories. Each dataset is described in more detail below. 1. Marginal Soils Index Analysis Description: This folder contains a csv file with land needs and availability by state, power generating technology type, and scenario in 2050 when suitable siting areas are additionally constrained to areas with increasing levels of soil marginality. Files: msi_constrained_siting_availability_2050.csv Variables: Scenario - Projected 2050 scenario name State - US state abbreviation Technology - Generating technology type solar = solar photovoltaic gas_cc_re = natural gas combined cycle (recirculating cooling) wind = onshore wind gas_cc_ccs_re = natural gas combined cycle with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) gas_cc_dry = natural gas combined cycle with (dry cooling) gas_cc_pond = natural gas combined cycle with (pond cooling) coal_conv_ccs_re = conventional coal with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) Req_Capacity_MW - The amount of rated capacity required in 2050 of the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario from the capacity expansion plan Req_Capacity_Factor - The assumed capacity factor (fraction between 0 and 1) for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario by the capacity expansion plan Req_Land_km2 - The amount of land required (in km-squared) to host the required generating capacity that is capable of meeting the specified capacity factor for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario Req_Energy_TWh - Product of Req_Capacity_MW, Req_Capacity_Factor, and 8760/1e6 for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario MSI_Case - The level of MSI that siting the given technology is additionally constrained to, where >0 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than 0 >=1 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 1 >=2 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 2 >=3 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 3 Soil Attribute Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files for individual soil parameters upscaled to the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of non-missing 30m resolution values. All raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. Files: avg_cond_raster_ .tif - Average conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm max_cond_raster_ .tif - Maximum conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm min_ph_raster_ .tif- Min pH values across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. avg_ph_raster_ .tif - Average pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. max_ph_raster_ .tif- Max pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. erosion_factor_raster_ .tif - Product of k-factor and percent slope flood_freq_raster_ .tif - Number of months of the year during which the area is commonly, frequently, or very frequently flooded. max_sar_raster_ .tif - Maximum sodium adsorption ratio across all horizons within a depth of 40 inches rock_frac_raster_ .tif - Fraction of the upper 6 inches of soil composed of rock fragments larger than 3 inches. temp_regime_raster_ .tif - Soil temperature regime with the following key: 0 = pergelic 1 = gelic 2 = cryic 3 = frigid 4 = isofrigid 5 = mesic 6 = isomesic 7 = thermic 8 = isothermic 9 = hyperthermic 10 =isohyperthermic Marginal Soils Index Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index at the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of 30m resolution. Both raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. A value of 0 indicates that there were no soil attributes present that indicate marginal soil. NA values indicate that data was unavailable or bodies of water. Files: marginal_soils_index_30m_raster.tif marginal_soils_index_1km_raster.tif Marginal Soils Index Resource Potential Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index + Resource Potential (MSI+RP) score at 1km resolution for geothermal, solar, and wind technologies. Raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. NA values indicate that the location is not suitable for siting the given technology due to policy, environmental, socioeconomic, topological, and other constraints regardless of soil marginality level. Areas with values greater than or equal to zero represent the product of the normalized MSI value and the normalized resource potential value. Files: geothermal_msi_ep_score_raster.tif solar_msi_ep_score_raster.tif wind_msi_ep_score_raster.tif Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2026

Marginal Soils Index Analysis & Geospatial Data

This data package contains output files associated with the Mongird et al. paper entitled "Can US power grid expansion avoid prime agricultural lands?" and is organized into four dataset directories. Each dataset is described in more detail below. 1. Marginal Soils Index Analysis Description: This folder contains a csv file with land needs and availability by state, power generating technology type, and scenario in 2050 when suitable siting areas are additionally constrained to areas with increasing levels of soil marginality. Files: msi_constrained_siting_availability_2050.csv Variables: Scenario - Projected 2050 scenario name State - US state abbreviation Technology - Generating technology type solar = solar photovoltaic gas_cc_re = natural gas combined cycle (recirculating cooling) wind = onshore wind gas_cc_ccs_re = natural gas combined cycle with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) gas_cc_dry = natural gas combined cycle with (dry cooling) gas_cc_pond = natural gas combined cycle with (pond cooling) coal_conv_ccs_re = conventional coal with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) Req_Capacity_MW - The amount of rated capacity required in 2050 of the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario from the capacity expansion plan Req_Capacity_Factor - The assumed capacity factor (fraction between 0 and 1) for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario by the capacity expansion plan Req_Land_km2 - The amount of land required (in km-squared) to host the required generating capacity that is capable of meeting the specified capacity factor for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario Req_Energy_TWh - Product of Req_Capacity_MW, Req_Capacity_Factor, and 8760/1e6 for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario MSI_Case - The level of MSI that siting the given technology is additionally constrained to, where >0 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than 0 >=1 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 1 >=2 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 2 >=3 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 3 Soil Attribute Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files for individual soil parameters upscaled to the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of non-missing 30m resolution values. All raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. Files: avg_cond_raster_ .tif - Average conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm max_cond_raster_ .tif - Maximum conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm min_ph_raster_ .tif- Min pH values across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. avg_ph_raster_ .tif - Average pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. max_ph_raster_ .tif- Max pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. erosion_factor_raster_ .tif - Product of k-factor and percent slope flood_freq_raster_ .tif - Number of months of the year during which the area is commonly, frequently, or very frequently flooded. max_sar_raster_ .tif - Maximum sodium adsorption ratio across all horizons within a depth of 40 inches rock_frac_raster_ .tif - Fraction of the upper 6 inches of soil composed of rock fragments larger than 3 inches. temp_regime_raster_ .tif - Soil temperature regime with the following key: 0 = pergelic 1 = gelic 2 = cryic 3 = frigid 4 = isofrigid 5 = mesic 6 = isomesic 7 = thermic 8 = isothermic 9 = hyperthermic 10 =isohyperthermic Marginal Soils Index Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index at the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of 30m resolution. Both raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. A value of 0 indicates that there were no soil attributes present that indicate marginal soil. NA values indicate that data was unavailable or bodies of water. Files: marginal_soils_index_30m_raster.tif marginal_soils_index_1km_raster.tif Marginal Soils Index Resource Potential Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index + Resource Potential (MSIxRP) score at 1km resolution for geothermal, solar, and wind technologies. Raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. NA values indicate that the location is not suitable for siting the given technology due to policy, environmental, socioeconomic, topological, and other constraints regardless of soil marginality level. Areas with values greater than or equal to zero represent the product of the normalized MSI value and the normalized resource potential value. Files: geothermal_msi_rp_score_raster.tif solar_msi_rp_score_raster.tif wind_msi_rp_score_raster.tif Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Building Resilience: Maintaining Energy Efficiency and Thermal Comfort During Power Outages in Cold Climates

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and cold snaps, present significant challenges to building energy performance and occupant comfort. Highly correlated with climate events are widespread long duration power interruptions that may affect thousands of buildings and millions of customers. This study evaluates the impact of building energy performance and occupant thermal comfort in medium-sized office buildings in a cold climate region. Using energy models representing pre-1980 and 2019 vintages, simulations were conducted to assess energy performance under typical weather conditions and occupant thermal comfort during power interrupted extreme cold snap and heatwave climate events under both current 2020s and future 2050s weather conditions. The results show a projected 33% increase in cooling energy demand and a 19% reduction in heating energy by 2050. Findings reveal that older buildings are more susceptible to cold discomfort during cold snaps, while modern airtight buildings are more vulnerable to overheating during heatwaves. Various passive energy efficiency measures, such as improved infiltration control, thermal windows, solar-controlled windows, and cool envelopes, were evaluated for their ability to mitigate thermal discomforts. Solar controlled windows and weatherstripping contribute to reducing cold thermal discomfort by 21% during a power-interrupted cold snap. Solar-controlled windows were found to reduce hot thermal discomfort by 34% during a future power-interrupted heatwave. The study highlights the importance of targeted retrofitting strategies to enhance thermal resilience, especially during power outages, to ensure occupant safety and comfort during extreme climate events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies

To meet the nationally determined contributions proposed by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, investments must be made in renewable generation technologies such as solar and wind. However, due to their high variability, these technologies pose challenges in terms of meeting demand or generating excess electricity. For this reason, energy system models are designed to capture this variability by considering flexibility technologies. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some energy system models lack integration with other sectors. Therefore, integrated assessment models have been employed to evaluate mitigation strategies, as they endogenously consider the linkages between energy and non-energy sectors. In addition, due to their complexity, these models do not account for the variability of renewable resources. Hence, this research aims to address this issue. Here, this work represents the first attempt to evaluate how the introduction of hourly resolution affects the outcomes of integrated assessment models, specifically focusing on the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We employ a soft-linking approach between the GCAM and the Highway to Renewable Energy Systems model (H2RES, an hourly level energy system model) to accomplish this. The proposed approach is tested using Chile’s Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. The results show that it is possible to use the capacity obtained from the Global Change Analysis Model and implement it on an hourly scale. However, the feasibility of implementation depends on high levels of flexibility technologies, such as battery energy storage. When given the choice of investments in renewable sources and flexible technologies, the optimal dispatch of the H2RES model show small differences than those obtained by GCAM-Chile. H2RES differs from GCAM-Chile in approximately 5% for wind and 3% for solar electricity generation in the year 2050. However, feasible integration of significant renewable sources is obtained with relatively high Critical Excess Electricity Production levels, reaching 20% in 2050. This excess electricity is attributed to the necessity for flexible technologies to manage the intermittency of renewables sources when hourly profiles of such sources are considered.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-term carbon emission reduction potential of building retrofits with dynamically changing electricity emission factors

Buildings account for approximately 36% of the United States' total carbon emissions and building retrofits have great potential to reduce carbon emissions. Current research adopts a constant electricity emission factor although it changes over time due to the increase of renewable energy generation. Here, to accurately predict emission reduction potential of building retrofits, this study develops a novel method by using dynamically changing electricity emission factors. Using medium office buildings as an example, we predicted emission reduction of eight building retrofit measures from 2020 to 2050 in five locations in the U.S. with distinct climates and renewable adoption rates. To evaluate emission reduction potential sensitivity to the compositions of electricity generation, five scenarios for renewable energy adoptions are investigated. The results reveal several new phenomena on emission reduction potential of building retrofits for medium offices in the U.S.: (1) it decreases from 2026 to 2050; (2) it has the same trend with coal usage; and (3) it reaches the maximum under the high renewable cost scenario. Based on the results, it is recommended that building retrofits should focus on 1) improving lighting and equipment efficiency; 2) locations with higher coal usage rate, and 3) buildings under the high renewable cost scenario. The new method can also be used for predicting emission reduction potential of the building sector in the U.S. by applying to other building types and regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results

Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. Here, the present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of nuclear in China’s energy future: insights from integrated assessment

China, the world’s largest electricity consumer, has strong motivations to deploy nuclear power due to increasing electricity demand and environmental concerns. However, there are social, institutional, and technical barriers to future nuclear expansion. This paper provides an updated assessment of nuclear energy potential in China with analyses at both national and provincial levels and compares results with studies previously conducted. Using an integrated assessment model, this paper considers the interactions among different socioeconomic development pathways, technology options, climate policies, and social/political concerns on inland siting. Among all factors explored, climate policies have the most significant impact on accelerating the deployment of nuclear technologies. Inland siting of nuclear power plants increases total capacity, but the impact is limited without climate policy. The amount of annual nuclear generation across scenarios and studies is unlikely to rise above 11% by 2030 and 30% by 2050 of total Chinese electricity generation. A dramatic increase in total Chinese nuclear energy generating capacity – around 3900 TWh of nuclear generation by 2050 – is only possible in scenarios where China sees electricity demand increase substantially, sticks to and tightens its current Paris Accord commitments, achieves low costs of nuclear technologies, and allows inland siting of nuclear power plants.

China, integrated assesment, Nuclear Power Plants↗
DOE OSTI2020

Co-benefits of subnationally differentiated carbon pricing policies in China: Alleviation of heavy PM 2.5 pollution and improvement in environmental equity

Carbon policies differentiated according to regional disparities have been recognized and recommended. However, the air quality co-benefits of differentiated policies remain unclear. Here we combine a multi-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and an extend response surface model (ERSM) to investigate the impact of nationally uniform and subnationally differentiated carbon pricing policies on fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations in China. All policies examined lead to the same accumulated national CO 2 emissions (2020–2050), with the 2030 emissions attaining China&#x27;s national abatement target. We find that, when subnational policies differentiated according to provincial PM 2.5 concentrations are implemented, the higher-than-average carbon price over more polluted provinces results in twice as much reduction in CO 2 and air pollutant emissions in 2050 as the national policy. As a result, the subnational policies cause larger PM 2.5 concentration reductions in these provinces (9%–18%) than the national policy (7%–11%). Also, the subnational policies eliminate high PM 2.5 exposure of over 45 μg/m 3 which 12% people suffer from under the national policy. Overall, the subnational policies substantially reduce regional disparity in PM 2.5 pollution and hence improve environmental equity. The results suggest that subnationally differentiated carbon policies are a promising instrument to mitigate severe pollution and promote environmental equity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns?

Hydropower accounts for approximately 60% of electricity generation in Canada, with growth expected in the coming decades as part of renewable energy transitions; however, frequent cost overruns threaten the viability of this growth. Here, using the integrated assessment model GCAM, we develop an endogenous representation of hydropower for Canada that accounts for market dynamics, thus permitting analysis of hydropower competition with other electricity generation technologies, both with and without cost overruns. Results show that modelling hydropower resources endogenously increases Canadian hydropower deployment relative to an assumption of fixed hydropower production, from 417 to 495 TWh annually by 2050. In scenarios that apply cost overruns at historical levels, hydropower loses market share to more easily scalable technologies like wind power. When including high cost overrun assumptions, the model determines that hydropower falls from about 73% to 65% of Canadian electricity generation by 2050, while wind power increases from about 8% to 11%. Countries may be better able to achieve electrification and renewable energy targets at lower cost by avoiding large-scale, overrun-prone hydropower and nuclear generation projects. Model results support that cost overruns are important considerations for policy decisions related to electricity sector development in Canada and elsewhere.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Economic and Environmental Analysis to Evaluate the Potential Value of Co-Optima Diesel Bioblendstocks to Petroleum Refiners

The U.S. petroleum refining sector is undergoing a period of historic transformation, catalyzed by the decarbonization of the U.S. economy. Diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks have gained traction, owing to their superior fuel properties and environmental performance as compared to traditional petroleum fuels. This work couples refinery linear programming models with life cycle assessment to quantify the potential economic and environmental benefits, and trade-offs, of blending diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks at petroleum refineries. Linear programming models were developed in Aspen Process Industry Modeling Systems (PIMS) for three representative petroleum refinery configurations of differing complexity. Seven diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks: 4-butoxyheptane, 5-ethyl-4-propylnonane, soy biodiesel, sludge hydrothermal liquefaction diesel, polyoxymethylene ethers, renewable diesel, and hexyl hexanoate, were investigated to identify key fuel properties that influence refineries' economics and to track the effect of adding bioblendstocks on refinery-wide cradle-to-gate greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. These analyses considered blending levels from 10 to 30 vol% and fuel demand projections over the period 2040 to 2050. This analysis determines that bioblendstock sulfur content and cetane number are the primary fuel attributes with the potential to provide value to refiners. Life cycle assessment results indicate that the use of diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks can reduce cradle-to-gate refinery GHG emissions by up to ~ 40 % relative to conventional refinery operations when considering carbon uptake in the supply chain of the bioblendstock. Refinery-wide marginal GHG abatement costs range from 120 to 3,600 USD2016/metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent avoided across the scenarios evaluated. Reducing the price of bioblendstocks is identified as a key to their adoption.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,BIOMASS FUELS,ENERGY P↗