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Decomposing sources of value for electricity and negative emissions technologies in net-zero power systems

Deep decarbonization of the US power system would require rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources, which are projected to provide a substantial share of electricity generation at the time of net-zero emissions. However, the exact share of generation met by VRE and the roles of other technologies in supplying key electricity services—energy and firm capacity—remain uncertain. This study employs a detailed model of the US power sector to decompose the provision and value of electricity services, including negative emissions, by technology across a range of deep decarbonization scenarios. Results indicate that while technology deployment and the share of services provided by each technology vary significantly depending on future technological and market conditions, the value composition and future roles of individual technologies remain consistent. These findings offer guidance for research and development priorities and provide insights to inform electricity policy and planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Datasets and U-Net Model for "A Deep Learning Based Framework to Identify Undocumented Orphaned Oil and Gas Wells from Historical Maps: a Case Study for California and Oklahoma"

This dataset has results and the model associated with the publication Ciulla et al., (2024). It contains a U-Net semantic segmentation model (unet_model.h5) and associated code implemented in tensorflow 2.0 for the model training and identification of oil and gas well symbols in USGS historical topographic maps (HTMC). Given a quadrangle map (7.5 minutes), downloadable at this url: https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/topoview/, and a list of coordinates of the documented wells present in the area, the model returns the coordinates of oil and gas symbols in the HTMC maps. For reproducibility of our workflow, we provide a sample map in California and the documented well locations for the entire State of California (CalGEM_AllWells_20231128.csv) downloaded from https://www.conservation.ca.gov/calgem/maps/Pages/GISMapping2.aspx. Additionally, the locations of 1,301 potential undocumented orphaned wells identified using our deep learning framework or the counties of Los Angeles and Kern in California, and Osage and Oklahoma in Oklahoma are provided in the file found_potential_UOWs.zip. The results of the visual inspection of satellite imagery in Osage County is in the file visible_potential_UOWs.zip. The dataset also includes a custom tool to validate the detected symbols in the HTMC maps (vetting_tool.py). More details about the methodology can be found in the associated paper: Ciulla, F., Santos, A., Jordan, P., Kneafsey, T., Biraud, S.C., and Varadharajan, C. (2024) A Deep Learning Based Framework to Identify Undocumented Orphaned Oil and Gas Wells from Historical Maps: a Case Study for California and Oklahoma. Accepted for publication in Environmental Science and Technology. The geographical coordinates provided correspond to the locations of potential undocumented orphaned oil and gas wells (UOWs) extracted from historical maps. The actual presence of wells need to be confirmed with on-the-ground investigations. For your safety, do not attempt to visit or investigate these sites without appropriate safety training, proper equipment, and authorization from local authorities. Approaching these well sites without proper personal protective equipment (PPE) may pose significant health and safety risks. Oil and gas wells can emit hazardous gasses including methane, which is flammable, odorless and colorless, as well as hydrogen sulfide, which can be fatal even at low concentrations. Additionally, there may be unstable ground near the wellhead that may collapse around the wellbore. This dataset was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. While this document is believed to contain correct information, neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor the Regents of the University of California, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by its trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or the Regents of the University of California. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof or the Regents of the University of California.

Artificial Intelligence

Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative – 2024 Update

This report provides recommended parameters for incorporating nuclear energy systems into decarbonization modeling scenarios. The values are primarily intended for the Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative but are expected to prove useful to other related efforts. Both costs and operational metrics are provided in the study for large reactors and small modular reactors (SMR).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Innovative Pathways to Net Zero Emissions: Subnational Strategies for Distributed Solar Deployment to Improve Grid Quality and Reduce Energy Costs in Argentina

Through Net Zero World, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the National Energy Secretariat of Argentina, La Pampa's Energy and Mining Secretariat, Pampetrol, and the Administracion Provincial de Energia de La Pampa (APELP) conducted an integrated analysis of the power system of the La Pampa province in Argentina. The study assessed the impact that solar and battery energy storage systems could have on the region grid's reliability and electricity costs, providing insights into long-term decarbonization strategies across Argentina. The analysis demonstrated that these systems are expected not only to help with decarbonization efforts but also to bolster grid resiliency, reduce line losses, and improve voltage regulation while lowering electricity costs. The paper offers a replicable framework for similar studies across other Argentine provinces, which could inform a national grid reliability plan and promote regional coordination. Such coordination will play a key role in supporting a nationwide clean energy transition as Argentina increases its share of renewable energy. By coordinating subnational energy plans with national strategies, Argentina can secure a resilient clean energy future, leveraging the substantial renewable resources available across its provinces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Solar Forecasting, Net Load Forecasting, and Data-Driven Distributed Solar Visibility Prizes (Final Technical Report)

The American-Made Solar Forecasting Prize, Net Load Forecasting Prize, and Data-Driven Distribution (3D) Solar Visibility Prize is a multimillion-dollar prize competition designed to energize U.S. solar innovation through a series of contests that accelerate the entrepreneurial process from years to months. The activities incentivized by these three prizes will support the governmentwide approach to increase American energy dominance by promoting innovation and early deployment of energy technologies, resulting in wider adoption, which is critical for secure, affordable, and reliable solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Data for Bistline, et al. (2025) "Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts"

These files contain input assumptions, results, and figures associated with the Bistline, et al. (2025) article "Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts" in Energy and Climate Change as part of the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study. Please refer to the original paper for details.

climate policy

Decarbonizing Hydrogen Production: Assessing A Net-Negative Pathway

Hydrogen is gaining prominence as a key factor in the world's transition to a cleaner energy future. The International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Global Hydrogen Review 2023 reports that the number of low-emission hydrogen production projects is increasing rapidly. The potential for growth in new applications such as heavy industry, transportation, and power generation is significant. The IEA urges more decisive action to spur demand for low-emission hydrogen to achieve climate goals. While hydrogen is produced through various industrial methods, each with its own advantages and disadvantages, low-carbon hydrogen is critical for mitigating climate change and is incentivized by the Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (45V). To this end, we have evaluated a commercial technology that can produce low- or negative-carbon hydrogen via ethanol catalytic oxidative reforming. This study assessed life cycle greenhouse gas emissions (carbon intensity or CI) associated with the hydrogen production technology. A total of 24 scenarios were evaluated, encompassing (a) Gen1 versus Gen2 ethanol inputs, (b) carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) of upstream fermentation CO2, and (c) oxygen sourcing via air separation unit (ASU) versus purchased or on-site production of oxygen as a byproduct of hydrogen electrolysis with a proton exchange membrane (PEM). Key findings include that the base case CI for hydrogen production using Gen2 ethanol from corn stover is lower than Gen1 dry mill corn ethanol. The study also points out that the CI for hydrogen production using PEM-O2 is lower than that using ASU-O2, whether the PEM-O2 is produced on-site or off-site (importing). When sourcing oxygen from on-site PEM-O2, the Gen1 and Gen2 ethanol-derived hydrogen exhibit favorable net-negative CI values for all evaluated scenarios, especially if the upstream ethanol CCS is included. As a reference, the 45V regulatory threshold for generating clean hydrogen tax credits is a CI below 0.45 kg CO2e/kg hydrogen.

BIOMASS FUELS,HYDROGEN

Multihead Attention U‐Net for Magnetic Particle Imaging–Computed Tomography Image Segmentation

Magnetic particle imaging (MPI) is an emerging noninvasive molecular imaging modality with high sensitivity and specificity, exceptional linear quantitative ability, and potential for successful applications in clinical settings. Computed tomography (CT) is typically combined with the MPI image to obtain more anatomical information. Herein, a deep learning‐based approach for MPI‐CT image segmentation is presented. The dataset utilized in training the proposed deep learning model is obtained from a transgenic mouse model of breast cancer following administration of indocyanine green (ICG)‐conjugated superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoworms (NWs‐ICG) as the tracer. The NWs‐ICG particles progressively accumulate in tumors due to the enhanced permeability and retention (EPR) effect. The proposed deep learning model exploits the advantages of the multihead attention mechanism and the U‐Net model to perform segmentation on the MPI‐CT images, showing superb results. In addition, the model is characterized with a different number of attention heads to explore the optimal number for our custom MPI‐CT dataset.

Juhong, Aniwat

Reduced accrual of mineral-associated organic matter after two years of enhanced rock weathering in cropland soils, though no net losses of soil organic carbon

Abstract Enhanced rock weathering (ERW), the application of crushed silicate rock to soil, can remove atmospheric carbon dioxide by converting it to (bi) carbonate ions or solid carbonate minerals. However, few studies have empirically evaluated ERW in field settings. A critical question remains as to whether additions of crushed rock might positively or negatively affect soil organic matter (SOM)—Earth’s largest terrestrial organic carbon (C) pool and a massive reservoir of organic nitrogen (N). Here, in three irrigated cropland field trials in California, USA, we investigated the effect of crushed meta-basalt rock additions on different pools of soil organic carbon and nitrogen (i.e., mineral-associated organic matter, MAOM, and particulate organic matter, POM), active microbial biomass, and microbial community composition. After 2 years of crushed rock additions, MAOM stocks were lower in the upper surface soil (0–10 cm) of plots with crushed rock compared to unamended control plots. At the 2 sites where baseline pre-treatment data were available, neither total SOC nor SON decreased over the 2 years of study in plots with crushed rock or unamended control plots. However, the accrual rate of MAOM-C and MAOM-N at 0–10 cm was lower in plots with crushed rock vs. unamended controls. Before ERW is deployed at large scales, our results suggest that field trials should assess the effects of crushed rock on SOM pools, especially over multi-year time scales and in different environmental contexts, to accurately assess changes in net C and understand the mechanisms driving interactions between ERW and SOM cycling.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Accelerating laser ray tracing in high fidelity physics simulations of laser melting using squeeze U-net

Laser melting is a core component of the ongoing industrial revolution, dubbed Industry 4.0, as lasers facilitate fast and precise melting and fusion in advanced manufacturing. There is a strong need to optimize the laser process using simulations. However, this has proven challenging as high fidelity simulations are needed for predictive modeling and this is currently prohibitively expensive even when run on hundreds of processors on high performance computers. The challenge is capturing complex physics of laser material interaction, fluid dynamics, thermal physics and material phase transformations at various length and time scales. To close this technological gap, we modified a squeeze U-net to accelerate the laser ray tracing component of such high fidelity models by ~4x–40x while preserving the core physics principle of conservation of energy with 97% accuracy. This approach enables the accurate modeling of global laser energy absorption as a function of local surface temperatures and complex surface topologies, which govern the reflection directions and energy losses of laser rays upon interacting with the material surface.

Computer science

The role of the iron and steel sector in achieving net zero U.S. CO 2 emissions by 2050

The U.S. steel sector is a hard-to-abate sector because of its heavy dependence on fossil fuels and its high capital requirements. In 2015, the sector was one of the major carbon emitters, contributing 10 % of the U.S. industrial CO 2 emissions. The ability to decarbonize the U.S. iron and steel sector directly affects the ability of the U.S. to achieve economy-wide net zero CO 2 by 2050. In this paper, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to analyze different U.S. steel sector decarbonization pathways under varying technology, policy, and demand futures. These pathways provide insights on how various low-carbon steelmaking technologies such as those using carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, or scrap could help reduce U.S. steel emissions by mid-century. In our primary decarbonization pathway, we find that nearly all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking capacity is fully integrated with CCS by 2050. However, without CCS availability, almost all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking is phased-out by 2050 and is replaced by hydrogen-based production. Scrap-based production continues to remain vital across both of these decarbonization pathways. Furthermore, we find that demand reduction could help reduce the required levels of CCS and hydrogen-based production in the decarbonization pathways. Implementation of advanced energy efficiency measures could help substantially reduce the sector's energy usage. Finally, we observe that addressing the embodied carbon transfer associated with steel imports will be crucial for fully decarbonizing the U.S. steel sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Development, validation, and verification of multi-pass thermo-mechanical welding simulations using the open-source MOOSE framework: NeT TG4 benchmark weldment

This study develops and validates a sequentially coupled thermo-mechanical welding simulation for the three-pass 316L stainless steel NeT TG4 benchmark weldment using the open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) and the Nuclear Engineering Material model Library (NEML). A diffused ellipsoidal heat source was calibrated against thermocouple data and weld macrographs to accurately model the fusion zone geometry and transient thermal fields. Material hardening is represented using the Lemaitre-Chaboche mixed isotropic-kinematic hardening model, while four annealing models - no annealing, single-stage at 1050 °C and 1300 °C, and two-stage at 800 °C/1300 °C - were implemented to assess the impact of annealing models on the accuracy of the predicted welding-induced plasticity, distortions, and residual stresses. The predictions were validated against experimental measurements and benchmarked against results from commercial software, demonstrating that thermo-mechanical MOOSE welding simulations achieve comparable accuracy with enhanced computational efficiency. This work highlights the potential of using open-source finite element frameworks like MOOSE for advanced manufacturing simulations.

Ji, Wendy [Australian Nuclear Science and Technolo

Measurements of charged-particle multiplicity dependence of higher-order net-proton cumulants in p + p collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 200 GeV from STAR at RHIC

We report on the charged-particle multiplicity dependence of net-proton cumulant ratios up to sixth order from $\sqrt{s}$ = 200 GeV p+p collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The measured ratios C 4 /C 2 , C 5 /C 1 , and C 6 /C 2 decrease with increased charged-particle multiplicity and rapidity acceptance. Neither the Skellam baselines nor PYTHIA8 calculations account for the observed multiplicity dependence. In addition, the ratios C 5 /C 1 and C 6 /C 2 approach negative values in the highest-multiplicity events, which implies that thermalized QCD matter may be formed in p+p collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Net Present Value Optimization of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Plant with CO 2 Capture using a Water-Lean Solvent Considering Transient Electricity Price for Multiple Regions

Global CO 2 emissions are increasing at about a 1.5% rate per year. Fossil fuel-based plants are one of the main contributors to this rise. In the power generation industry, fossil fuel plants are dominant, and many plants are under development. In this study, a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plant with postcombustion capture using a leading water-lean solvent is considered. For optimal design and operating schedule, large-scale dynamic optimization is undertaken for net present value (NPV) optimization. The first principle dynamic model of NGCC is developed, including a model of the highly efficient H-class gas turbines. For computational tractability of the dynamic optimization problem, a reduced-order model is developed by using the Hankel singular value decomposition. A waterlean solvent, N-(2-ethoxyethyl)-3-morpholinopropan-1-amine, is used for carbon capture. A model of the capture system is developed in Aspen Plus, which is used to develop a reduced-order model by using ALAMO, a machine learning software. In addition, a reduced model of the CO 2 compression system with a dehydration unit is also considered. The integrated system is used for NPV optimization by using the Python-based PYOMO platform. The PCC process is analyzed for three configurations-conventional packed bed, rotating packed bed (RPB), and a combination of RPB and direct contact cooler. The NPV optimization is performed for 14 regional markets by considering year-long clustered and continuous locational marginal price data with a 1 h interval. Optimization results show that the PCC can achieve 90% CO 2 capture with a positive NPV for six regions. Sensitivity studies conducted by using the PCC configurations indicate that the process is economically feasible for 9 regions out of 14 regional electricity markets with NPV values in the range of 33−540 $MM.

cabon capture

Atom Identification in Bilayer Moiré Materials with Gomb-Net

Moiré patterns in van der Waals bilayer materials complicate the analysis of atomic-resolution images, hindering the atomic-scale insight typically attainable with scanning transmission electron microscopy. Here, we report a method to detect the positions and identities of atoms in each of the individual layers that compose twisted bilayer heterostructures. We developed a deep learning model, Gomb-Net, which identifies the coordinates and atomic species in each layer, deconvoluting the moiré pattern. This enables layer-specific mapping of atomic positions and dopant distributions, unlike other commonly used segmentation models which struggle with moiré-induced complexity. Using this approach, we explored the Se atom substitutional site distribution in a twisted fractional Janus WS 2 -WS 2(1–x) Se 2x heterostructure and found that layer-specific implantation sites are unaffected by the moiré pattern’s local energetic or electronic modulation. In conclusion, this advancement enables atom identification within material regimes where it was not possible before, opening new insights into previously inaccessible material physics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Accelerating phase field simulations through a hybrid adaptive Fourier neural operator with U-net backbone

Prolonged contact between a corrosive liquid and metal alloys can cause progressive dealloying. For one such process as liquid-metal dealloying (LMD), phase field models have been developed to understand the mechanisms leading to complex morphologies. However, the LMD governing equations in these models often involve coupled non-linear partial differential equations (PDE), which are challenging to solve numerically. In particular, numerical stiffness in the PDEs requires an extremely refined time step size (on the order of 10 -12 s or smaller). This computational bottleneck is especially problematic when running LMD simulation until a late time horizon is required. This motivates the development of surrogate models capable of leaping forward in time, by skipping several consecutive time steps at-once. In this paper, we propose a U-shaped adaptive Fourier neural operator (U-AFNO), a machine learning (ML) based model inspired by recent advances in neural operator learning. U-AFNO employs U-Nets for extracting and reconstructing local features within the physical fields, and passes the latent space through a vision transformer (ViT) implemented in the Fourier space (AFNO). We use U-AFNOs to learn the dynamics of mapping the field at a current time step into a later time step. We also identify global quantities of interest (QoI) describing the corrosion process (e.g., the deformation of the liquid-metal interface, lost metal, etc.) and show that our proposed U-AFNO model is able to accurately predict the field dynamics, in spite of the chaotic nature of LMD. Most notably, our model reproduces the key microstructure statistics and QoIs with a level of accuracy on par with the high-fidelity numerical solver, while achieving a significant 11, 200 × speed-up on a high-resolution grid when comparing the computational expense per time step. Finally, we also investigate the opportunity of using hybrid simulations, in which we alternate forward leaps in time using the U-AFNO with high-fidelity time stepping. We demonstrate that while advantageous for some surrogate model design choices, our proposed U-AFNO model in fully auto-regressive settings consistently outperforms hybrid schemes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE