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DOE OSTI2021

Global Overview of Energy Storage Performance Test Protocols

As part of the World Bank Energy Storage Partnership, this document seeks to provide support and knowledge to a set of stakeholders across the developing world as we all seek to analyze the emerging opportunities and technologies for energy storage in the electric sector. As global prices for renewable energy have dropped dramatically over the last decade and continue to decline and the value of energy storage has increased in many systems, the World Bank technical teams and others have been hearing of a variety of problems. Related, developing countries have been asking a series of questions in this new area. This working group seeks to address the issues raised in part by creating this document and working to gather a variety of experts in this area from across the globe in support of the World Bank efforts. Performance testing, in combination with test beds (Working Group 2), is critical to fulfill the promise offered by these breakthrough technologies and critical to increasing trust in these systems and reducing risk. This document seeks to provide information to stakeholders in developing countries on the current global performance testing landscape of the battery (and broader) performance testing landscape. This document does that by summarizing testing protocols published by key global entities. From this summary, it can be concluded that there are several organizations within each region that set protocols for the testing and specifications of stationary energy storage systems. Across most of these entities, there are extensive protocols for testing batteries for electrical vehicles and mobile devices, but less for large scale energy storage system and their usage cases. The working group and the Partnership more generally agree that the nascent markets for certain technologies and rapid growth make testing more important than ever as these markets continue to mature. This document also seeks to provide a set of "guideposts" to new entrants by pointing out some of the key organizations globally that are currently engaged in performance testing of energy storage systems (often batteries but the larger organizations are likely to engage in tailored tests for emerging thermal and other storage technologies).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Systems Engineering Approach to Accident Response Planning

This paper explores the Systems Engineering structure, strategies and tools for real world scenarios involving work with accident response groups. A systems engineering approach must be taken by the technical teams to prepare for a successful response and design the technical systems in support of the operations. The scope of this project is focused on laying out the foundation of the systems engineering approach taken to help the teams develop an accident response strategy and identify new engineering designs in support of these operations for the black box systems. This Master’s project involves several interdisciplinary teams & stakeholders across different areas. Identifying the proper tools to use is key to addressing the big picture needs of the multiple stakeholders. This project explores some of the key tools used by the integrated team. The integrated project work will primarily take place over the course of 8 weeks via integrated team meetings. Other work in support of this project will take place off-line as needed by the project lead. Details on the prospective timeline, milestones, key dates and work scope can be referenced in other sections of this paper. Key systems engineering methodologies and tools used thus far in support of this project includes: 1) Market Surveys and Interviews, 2) Project Charter, 3) Feasibility Study, 4) Swim Lane Diagram, and 5) Knowledge Management Plan.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Engineered Barrier Systems FY20 Report

This report describes research and development (R&D) activities conducted during fiscal year 2020 (FY20) specifically related to the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) R&D Work Package in the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign supported by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE). The R&D activities focus on understanding EBS component evolution and interactions within the EBS, as well as interactions between the host media and the EBS. A primary goal is to advance the development of process models that can be implemented directly within the Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) platform or that can contribute to the safety case in some manner such as building confidence, providing further insight into the processes being modeled, establishing better constraints on barrier performance, etc. The FY20 EBS activities involved not only modeling and analysis work, but experimental work as well. Despite delays to some planned activities due to COVID-19 precautions, progress was made during FY20 in multiple research areas and documented in this report as follows: (1) EBS Task Force: Task 9/FEBEX Modeling Final Report: Thermo-Hydrological Modeling with PFLOTRAN, (2) preliminary sensitivity analysis for the FEBEX in-situ heater test, (3) cement-carbonate rock interaction under saturated conditions: from laboratory to modeling, (4) hydrothermal experiments, (5) progress on investigating the high temperature behavior of the uranyl-carbonate complexes, (6) in-situ and electrochemical work for model validation, (7) investigation of the impact of high temperature on EBS bentonite with THMC modeling, (8) sorption and diffusion experiments on bentonite, (9) chemical controls on montmorillonite structure and swelling pressure, (10) microscopic origins of coupled transport processes in bentonite, (11) understanding the THMC evolution of bentonite in FEBEX-DP—coupled THMC modeling, (12) modeling in support of HotBENT, an experiment studying the effects of high temperatures on clay buffers/near-field, and (13) high temperature heating and hydration column test on bentonite.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced High-Performance Computational Modeling of the Seismic Response of High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSS

New methods for predicting the amplitude and variability of ground shaking from earthquakes (and explosions) are needed for seismic hazard analysis for buildings, nuclear power plants, and critical infrastructure at the NNSS. We are comparing existing 1-D and new 3-D geophysical methods for estimating the shear-wave velocity structure in the upper 30 meters of the ground surface (Vs30), which plays a major role in ground motion amplification and seismic response of buildings. We evaluate the performance of these methodologies at the U1a Complex at the NNSS and develop simple 1-D and high-resolution 3-D Vs30 models. We then emplace these high-resolution models into a background seismic velocity model. We will collaborate with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to conduct numerical modeling of the ground shaking at the NNSS using their high-performance computing technology and state-of-the-art ground motion simulation methodology. The primary work that was completed in FY 2019 was to acquire the seismic systems and familiarize staff at the NNSS with their use. We also worked on developing a collection plan with the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the NNSS, but due to time constraints and other ongoing projects at the DAF, we had to use U1a as a backup. We were able to coordinate the seismic survey, and we will complete the collection of seismic data in FY 2020. Additionally, during FY 2019, we completed the geologic framework model (GFM) for the U1a Complex and modeled the Yucca fault. LLNL worked with us through FY 2019 to prepare the data files for their modeling software and tested the software for reliability. In FY 2020 we will develop the end-to-end capability so that any facility could easily be modeled and the expected shaking from a local earthquake understood. The work in FY 2020 will include building fault models from the GFM and finalizing the velocity model analysis. The final simulations will be run for multiple rupture models, and final assessments will demonstrate the seismic hazard at the U1a Complex.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Unitary Bethe-Salpeter Methods in Two- and Three-Body Systems

The study of resonances, unstable particles formed in particle scattering, is motivated by the questions about the strong interaction and the composition of hadrons. In order to advance this study in the intermediate energy region, a variety of techniques are used. In this thesis, we present work done on two different analyses that use the principle of unitarity and the Bethe-Salpeter equation to study the resonances Lambda(1405), Sigma(1385), and a1(1260). Firstly, we perform a simultaneous analysis of Sand P-waves of the Strangeness = -1 two-body meson-baryon scattering amplitude using all low-energy data. For the first time, differential cross section data are included for chiral unitary coupled-channel models. From this model, S- and P-wave amplitudes are extracted and we observe both well-known I(JP)=0(1/2^-) S-wave states as well as a new I(JP)=1(1/2^+) state absent in quark models and lattice QCD results. Multiple statistical and phenomenological tests suggest that, while the data clearly require an I =1 P-wave resonance, the new state just accounts for the absence of the decuplet Sigma(1385)3/2+ in the model which is subsequently included in the parameterization. Secondly, we formulate the final state interaction of the a1(1260) resonance decay in a manifestly three-body-unitary parameterization and fit it to the a1(1260) lineshape measured by the ALEPH experiment. Dalitz plots calculated from this fit are presented. The work demonstrates the feasibility to numerically solve a previously derived amplitude and its generalization to isobars with spin and coupled channels. The model is a good test case because it can also be applied to other meson decays including exotic states and modified for the finite-volume problem as it arises in lattice QCD due to its manifest unitarity. The understanding of the resonances being analyzed in both the two-body work and the three-body work gives a better understanding of intermediate energy QCD.

Sadasivan, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Systems Engineering Approach to Accident Response Planning.

This paper explores the Systems Engineering structure, strategies and tools for real world scenarios involving work with accident response planning. A systems engineering approach must be taken by the technical teams to prepare for a successful response and design the technical systems in support of the operations. The scope of this project is focused on laying out the foundation of the systems engineering approach taken to help the teams develop an accident response strategy and identify new engineering designs in support of these operations for the black box systems. This Masters project involved several interdisciplinary teams & stakeholders. Identifying the proper tools to use was key to addressing the big picture needs of the multiple stakeholders. The integrated project work primarily took place over the course of eight weeks via integrated team meetings. Other work in support of this project was conducted off-line as needed by the project lead. Details on the prospective timeline, milestones, key dates and work scope can be referenced in this paper. Key systems engineering methodologies and tools used in support of this project included but is not limited to: Market Surveys and Interviews Project Charter Feasibility Study Swim Lane Diagram Knowledge Management Plan. A full suite of tools and the details regarding the application of these tools and results of this study is provided in this report.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY20) Appendix E: Mechanical Testing

This report documents work performed under the Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition’s Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology program for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE). This work was performed to fulfill Level 2 Milestone M2SF-21OR010201032, “ORNL High Burnup Confirmatory Demo Sibling Rod Testing Results,” within work package SF-21OR01020103 and is an update to the work reported in M2SF-19ORO010201026 and M2SF-19OR010201028.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY20), Appendix F: Cyclic Integrated Reversible-Bending Fatigue Tests

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Progress on Associate-Particle Imaging Algorithms, 2020

The present work describes progress on the development of imaging algorithms that use fast neutron signatures acquired using the associated-particle imaging (API) method. The present work complements ongoing work to develop neutron source and detector hardware to enable field inspection by investigating algorithms that are capable of discriminating between critical materials or extracting three-dimensional geometrical information from single-sided or transmission measurements. The present work is divided into three approaches:(1)Iterative reconstruction of inelastic gamma-ray emissions to perform three-dimensional time-of-flight imaging in a single view in either transmission or backscatter configurations. Iterative reconstruction enables image resolution better than the inherent TOF resolution.(2)Decomposition of registered neutron and x ray radiographs into an assumed material list for each pixel in the image.(3)Material identification using full spectral analysis that includes the emergent neutron and gamma ray energies, times, and angles.Progress for each approach is summarized for fiscal year 2020.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pulse Detonation Engine for Advanced Oxy-Combustion of Coal-Based Fuel for Direct Power Extraction Applications

Pressure gain combustion and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) systems have the potential to provide a step increase in the efficiency of combined-cycle power plants. Specific advantages include a net pressure increase to the system instead of a pressure drop, the high temperature of the detonation waves can increase the efficiency of power extraction compared to other processes, significant thermal energy can be released in a compact region, and the high velocities of the flow increase extraction of electrical power. In summary, a pressure gain combustor coupled with a MHD has the potential to be transformative. Despite the potential advantages, relatively little research has been conducted considering coupled pressure gain combustion systems with MHD systems. With this background and motivation, the overall goal of this effort was to advance the knowledge, technology, and computational tools associated with coupled detonation and MHD systems. A joint experimental and computational approach was used while seeking to accomplish the goals of this work. Specifically, two pulse detonation engines were developed and used for the experiments to produce detonations. Detonation speeds were measured for a variety of flow and fuel conditions (e.g., methane, propane, with coal particles). Preliminary electrical conductivity measurements were collected. An extensive amount of research was performed to identify sensitivities of detonation behaviors to the presence of combustion products. Computationally, a twofold approach was used in this work. First, a solver was developed for solving the governing equations for a reactive flow with coupled detonation and ionization chemistry. The solver was applied to study the impacts of seed material ionization on detonation. Second, a conservation element-solution element (CE-SE) based numerical solver for detonation studies with a reduced reaction mechanism for oxy-methane combustion was developed and verified on standard test cases. Key findings and contributions from this work are as follows. A system was developed for injecting powderized coal, or other seeding material, into a pulse-detonation system. The influence of a combustion product (i.e., CO 2 ) on detonation behavior was identified. Knowledge gained from this work is applicable to devices such as rotating detonation engines, where combustion products mix with fresh reactants. A system for measuring the electrical conductivity of the exhaust from a pulse-detonation engine was developed. The open-source solver, Clawpack, was extended to solve the reactive Euler equations for simulating detonations. A coupled combustion and ionization chemistry was developed in a single chemical kinetic model for methane oxidation. This model can be used to solve coupled MHD and detonation simulations. It was found that parasitic interactions from ionization chemistry with the magnetic field can reduce the detonation velocity by up to 8%, with a potential impact on power extraction of 15%. It is recommended that interactions between the detonation front and MHD field be considered. Higher gas temperatures and velocities were achieved owing to oxy-fuel detonations. Use of radical dissociation reactions in the reduced reaction mechanism, was found to be critical in predicting detonation temperature and velocity accurately.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Human Performance Improvement Task Group Task 21-1 Best Practice: Using virtual capabilities or options for HPI application (to reduce errors, strengthening defenses, strengthening the organization, and/or increasing capacity)

In 2020 the world was impacted by COVID-19. How work is done was dramatically changed for a large portion of the workforce. Many have made the abrupt shift to working from their home while others have adapted to COVID protocols (such as social distancing and wearing facemasks). Fundamentally, Human and Organizational Performance Improvement concepts and science did not change – only the delivery method changed (in some cases). The primary effect has been to accelerate dynamics already present in society – from e-commerce to online education to remote healthcare. Change is never easy for humans. However, remote work should be viewed as an opportunity; not a fix to a problem. In this Best Practice paper, you’ll get practical suggestions to help you reduce errors and improve Human Performance in remote, socially-distanced “work-from-home” environments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced Recovery Opportunities in the Appalachian Basin

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) has incorporated the work of geologic research teams (Geoteams) in its regional characterization, project planning and carbon dioxide (CO2) injection implementation work since the partnership was established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in 2003. Over this 16-year period, the cohort of Geoteams has grown from five to ten states and has contributed to the characterization of geologic sequestration opportunities, refinement of reservoir and seal data, and supported injection efforts through both predictive and post-injection assessments. The regional characterization work conducted by the Geoteams during the MRCSP Phase III project period (2010 – 2019) focused on the following tasks: (1) refinement of geologic seals/reservoir systems; (2) assessment of Atlantic Coastal Plain and offshore opportunities; (3) expanded assessments of oil and gas fields, particularly as they relate to enhanced recovery opportunities; (4) regional support for implementation of carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) in the partnership area; and (5) communication and data sharing. The findings of this work are summarized in the final report entitled Final Report of Geologic Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Opportunities in the form of a state-by-state presentation for the MRCSP Region. In addition to the capstone deliverable mentioned above, the Geoteams have also prepared a series of topical reports to elaborate on specific geologic intervals and/or geographic areas of study completed during the Phase III project period. Specifically, these topical reports address: (1) the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent offshore; (2) Cambro-Ordovician reservoirs/seals in the region; (3) enhanced oil and gas recovery opportunities in the Appalachian Basin; and (4) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the Michigan Basin. The remainder of this topical report presents our findings relative to enhanced recovery opportunities in the Appalachian Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Structural Characterization of Potential Carbon Dioxide Reservoirs and Adjacent Strata within the Llandovery Silurian to Middle Devonian Strata of Ohio

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) has incorporated the work of geologic research teams (Geoteams) in its regional characterization, project planning and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection implementation work since the partnership was established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in 2003. Over this 16-year period, the cohort of Geoteams has grown from five to ten states and has contributed to the characterization of geologic sequestration opportunities, refinement of reservoir and seal data, and supported injection efforts through both predictive and post-injection assessments. This report details the work led by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological Survey to evaluate the structure of nine formations in the Appalachian Basin of Ohio to assess seal integrity and whether carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) migration pathways could pose a potential risk. As part of Phase II MRCSP work, the Pennsylvania Geological Survey led the characterization of the Llandovery Silurian (“middle Silurian”) to Middle Devonian regional geologic characterization CO 2 utilization and storage. This preliminary assessment included generalized, regional-scale mapping, as well as the development of relatively coarse structure and isochore maps of stratigraphic intervals of interest for the Appalachian Basin. Because this stratigraphic interval offers several enhanced oil recovery targets and secondary targets for CO 2 storage, the Ohio Geological Survey undertook efforts in Phase III to characterize the Ohio’s portion of the Appalachian Basin more precisely and to resolve inconsistencies within Ohio’s formation tops. This study refined the subsurface correlations of the Silurian-through-Devonian stratigraphic section in Ohio. Higher-resolution isochore mapping of the CO 2 storage reservoirs and seals provides greater detail of potential high-porosity zones and potential structural influence on the interval.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

MST e-News (Spring 2021)

It has been a year of managing our work and deliverables while working to mitigate for the COVID hazard. I am pleased to say that because of your hard work, we have been able to achieve many of our deliverables, while learning how to adjust our work for COVID best practices. I know it hasn’t been easy and all of us are tired, but vaccines are starting to be distributed, at an enhanced cadence both by the State and the Lab. And I think this will help as we consider our future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advancements Toward ASME Nuclear Code Case for Compact Heat Exchangers

Our research team proposes to advance the state of the ASME section III code (nuclear service) for Compact Heat Exchangers (CHX). This work will improve the technical state of CHXs and lay the foundation necessary for these heat exchangers to be certified for use in nuclear service. During the course of this work, we will advance the understanding of the performance, integrity, and lifetime of the CHXs for use in any industrial application, making their use more attractive and accessible to the industry. We will do this by developing qualification and inspection procedures that utilize Non-destructive evaluation (NDE) and advanced in-service inspection techniques, with insight from the industrial utility leader EPRI. We have enlisted colleagues at MPR Associates (MPR), an elite nuclear code consulting firm, who are experts on the ASME section III code and who, with input from members of the ASME section III committee, will direct the testing and help develop a series of documents that define the rules and regulations for use of the CHX. Colleagues at North Carolina State University (NCSU) and Oregon State University (OSU) will conduct extensive tensile, creep, and fatigue experiments on diffusion bonded samples (manufactured by US-based Vacuum Process engineering) along with modeling using the elastic perfectly plastic assumptions and comprehensive full inelastic finite element analysis (FEA). This work will allow analysis by design and confidence in the strength of different internal structures. To ensure industry acceptance and long term confidence, team members at the University of Wisconsin–Madison (UW), University of Michigan (UM), Georgia Tech (GT), and the University of Idaho (UI) will extensively test prototypic heat exchangers manufactured by US-based manufactures CompRex and Vacuum Process Engineering (VPE), a leader in the development of advanced CHX. This testing will include the use of various working fluids (salt, sodium, helium, and sCO2) to evaluate operational issues as well as structural integrity under the most severe conditions. Post-test analysis of the tested CHXs coupled with pre/in-service/post NDE (ultrasonic and radiography) led by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) will be incorporated into the development of the rules and regulations for their use in nuclear service.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Creep-fatigue Behavior and Damage Accumulation of a Candidate Structural Material for Concentrating Solar Power Solar Thermal Receiver (Final Technical Report)

Creep-fatigue deformation is an important consideration for a thermal receiver in Concentrating Solar Power systems due to the constant static stress or pressure, diurnal cycling, and elevated service temperatures required for efficient operation. An accurate description of the creep-fatigue behavior, not available for five of the six candidate materials, is important for assessment of preliminary designs. This project has provided a detailed analysis of the creep-fatigue behavior and damage accumulation of Alloy 740H, a candidate structural material for a CSP solar thermal receiver to address a critical knowledge barrier for receiver designs identified in the CSP Gen3 Demonstration Roadmap. This project was divided in to three tasks, split between two general categories: Experimental and design methodology. Tasks 1 and 3, relating to the collection of data on Alloy 740H plate and sheet forms, respectively, were performed at the Idaho National Laboratory and used as input to Task 2, the development of design methodology performed at Argonne National Laboratory. Experimental work covered limited tensile and creep testing to fill gaps in available data that is currently available and to demonstrate how the plate of Alloy 740H tested in this work compared to historical data. A more substantial testing program for fatigue and creep-fatigue was performed, with particular emphasis on creep-fatigue as there is little available data and it is necessary to understand the creep-fatigue interaction and develop related design models. This effort includes the development of rules for the design of solar receiver components against high temperature creep-fatigue and ratcheting failure modes. The ASME Code rules for high temperature nuclear components was used to the basis of the method but adjustments will be made to reflect the generally shorter, diurnal operating cycles of thermal receivers and the relative consequences of failure, comparing nuclear to solar components. This work has provided guidance for the design of components for concentrating power facilities operating at high temperatures and undergoing high, secondary thermal stresses relative to the applied primary pressure stress. The design rules were developed for the design of Generation 3 CSP tubular receivers manufactured from Alloy 740H, but are generally applicable to a wide range of component types undergoing similar loads. Procedural design rules for components to be used in conjunction with the 2019 edition of the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code and the corresponding design data for Alloy 740H have been developed. A commentary describing the rationale behind the design rules and the data underlying the design material properties, as well as an extensive set of worked sample problems detailing the application of the rules to CSP components were developed as a part of this project, with a separate report covering these aspects in detail and included in the Appendix of this report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigating User Experiences with Data Abstractions on High Performance Computing Systems

Scientific exploration generates expanding volumes of data that commonly require High Performance Computing (HPC) systems to facilitate research. HPC systems are complex ecosystems of hardware and software that frequently are not user friendly. The Usable Data Abstractions (UDA) project set out to build usable software for scientific workflows in HPC environments by undertaking multiple rounds of qualitative user research. Qualitative research investigates how individuals accomplish their work and our interview-based study surfaced a variety of insights about the experiences of working in and with HPC ecosystems. This report examines multiple facets to the experiences of scientists and developers using and supporting HPC systems. We discuss how stakeholders grasp the design and configuration of these systems, the impacts of abstraction layers on their ability to successfully do work, and the varied perceptions of time that shape this work. Examining the adoption of the Cori HPC at NERSC we explore the anticipations and lived experiences of users interacting with this system’s novel storage feature, the Burst Buffer. We present lessons learned from across these insights to illustrate just some of the challenges HPC facilities and their stakeholders need to account for when procuring and supporting these essential scientific resources to ensure their usability and utility to a variety of scientific practices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds

This report documents work sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as part of the RES project, “Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds.” This project was implemented as part of the Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program. The objective of the PFHA Research Program is to develop tools and guidance on the use of PFHA methods to risk-inform NRC’s licensing of new facilities as well as licensing and oversight of currently operating facilities as they relate to flooding hazards. Many nuclear power plants (NPPs) are located on or near rivers so riverine flooding hazards need to be considered in their design and operation. Probabilistic riverine flood models are important tools for realistic assessment of flooding risks. However, these models require areal estimates of the depth, duration, and frequency of rainfall distributed over the watershed, which are not often available. Point precipitation frequency estimates are more widely available. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has published NOAA Atlas 14, which provides point precipitation frequency estimates for 5-minute through 60-day durations at average recurrence intervals of 1-year through 1,000-year. The research documented in this report addresses areal reduction factors (ARFs), which can be used to convert the widely available point precipitation frequency estimates, to estimates of areal precipitation frequency over a watershed. The most widely used ARF source is Technical Paper 29 (TP-29) published by the then U.S. Weather Bureau in 1958. However, both the methods and the underlying precipitation data used to produce TP-29 are seriously out of date. For example, due to the small gauge network available at the time of TP-29’s compilation, ARF estimates developed are only for watersheds smaller than about 400 square miles. Due to the relatively short record lengths of precipitation data available, frequency considerations could not be accurately determined. Other factors such as regional climate and seasonality were not addressed. Several newer methods have been published since TP-29 was developed and both the type and quantity of precipitation data have increased significantly, along with computational resources and analytical tools such as geographic information systems. This report reviewed and assessed the available precipitation products and methods for conducting ARF analysis. The work applied up-to-date precipitation data products and analysis methods with a novel watershed-based approach to investigate how ARF estimates vary across different methods, data sources, geographical locations, return periods, and seasons. The overall findings reported here regarding basic ARF trends are in line with other recent studies showing that ARFs decrease with increasing area, increase with increasing duration, and decrease with increasing return period. This study found significant differences among the available ARF methods. This work also found a strong geographical variability across different US hydrologic regions, suggesting that the ARF are specific to regional climate patterns and geographical characteristics and should not be applied arbitrarily to other locations. The results also reveal the importance of data record length, especially for high return level ARFs. The work reported in NUREG/CR-7271 will assist NRC staff in assessing different classes of ARF methods in conjunction with available rainfall data sets. It will also support the development of guidance for application of point precipitation data in PFHAs. It should be noted that the ARF values presented in this report for any location or region were developed for the purposes of comparing methods and investigating the factors that influence ARFs. They should not be considered official and should not be used in leu of a site-specific analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗