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DOE OSTI2022

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation

Providing reliable probabilistic solar radiation information is needed to improve management of the uncertainty and variability of solar generation. Thus, guidance on how to develop skillful and accurate ensemble forecasts is essential and it will ultimately contribute to integration of high amounts of solar energy on the grid. A team from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research had been collaborating to develop the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS) in the past three years to produce probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts and better predict solar energy by quantifying forecast uncertainty. The WRF-Solar EPS basically generates ensemble members for solar irradiance based on stochastic perturbations to provide intraday and day-ahead probabilistic forecasts. This study will present main research steps in developing the WRF-Solar EPS including: (a) tangent linear analysis for identifying key input variables of six WRF-Solar modules significantly related to predicting of cloud and solar irradiance, (b) combining stochastic perturbation technique with the WRF-Solar model, and (c) ensemble calibration method to decrease error and uncertainty of ensemble-based solar forecasts. The capability of WRF-Solar EPS is now updated to the most recent version of standard WRF model. This presentation will summarize comprehensive results from the evaluation of forecasts against the National Solar Radiation Data Base as well as ground-measured observations. Moreover, we will introduce the user's guide for WRF-Solar EPS (e.g., parameters to configure stochastic perturbations) and future extension of this research.

day-ahead forecast↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kick Signatures Through Multiphase Data

Oral presentation on NETL research delivered at the 2022 Resource Sustainability Meeting. This effort concerns advancing a concept for early kick detection through the development of synthetic (simulation and experiment) multiphase acoustic data corresponding to well characterized kick events. The simulation activities are the focus of the talk.

Carney, Janine↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kick Signatures Through Advanced Multi-Phase Data

Poster presentation on NETL research presented at the 2022 Resource Sustainability Meeting. This effort concerns advancing a concept for early kick detection through the development of synthetic (simulation and experiment) multiphase data corresponding to well characterized kick events. The focus of this presentation is on the simulation activities.

Carney, Janine↗

DOE OSTI2023

Counting Calories: Light Yield Studies with ADRIANO2 Calorimeter Prototype

Precision in measuring particle energies is crucial to understand the intricacies of high-energy physics beyond the standard model. For the REDTOP experiment to detect η/η´ mesons potentially decaying into dark-matter particles not yetdiscovered, it is essential to have accurate measurements through sophisticated and innovative detector technology built with special properties. The ADRIANO2 (A Dual Readout Integrally Active Non-segmented Option) Calorimeter Prototype plays a pivotal role in advancing detection capabilities, offering the potential to enhance the particle identification procedure. This study delves into the characterization of the ADRIANO2 prototype’s light yield with the ultimate goal of contributing to broader high-energy physics objectives. To estimate the light yield for the ADRIANO2 prototype, we must calibrate the light sensors as well as collect data from beams of known properties. Several prototypes of the ADRIANO2 detector have been tested at the Mtest Facility at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory in the last few years. This paper attempts to summarize the calibration of one such ADRIANO2 prototype to estimate its experimental performance.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of H-Canyon Ventilation Exhaust Tunnel Inspection at the Savannah River Site - 20052

The Department of Energy (DOE) H-Canyon Facility at the Savannah River Site (SRS) is operated by Savannah River Nuclear Solutions (SRNS). The Facility Structural Integrity Program [1] provides a process to inspect, evaluate, and document the conditions of passive safety related structural systems and components, their degradation mechanisms and their impact on the safety envelope. The Structural Integrity Program performs periodic visual inspections to confirm the systems and components can perform their safety function and recommend corrective actions before the function is compromised. The H-Canyon Exhaust Tunnel is part of the H-Canyon Ventilation System and is periodically inspected under the Structural Integrity Program. The Tunnel performs a Safety Class passive design feature function that is available 100% of the time. The underground reinforced concrete Tunnel directs Canyon process air from the Canyon to the Sand Filter System. The radiological and chemical airborne activity coupled with the physical configuration of the tunnel precludes a manned entry into the tunnel to perform the inspection. Unlike active systems that can be subjected to physical testing to confirm capability, qualification calculations, including modeling, is performed to assess passive design feature capabilities relative to operational, accident and natural phenomena hazards events. Input for these calculations come from knowledge of field conditions, design drawings and conservative assumptions. The knowledge of field conditions comes from concrete and soil testing activities as well as inspection data. The use of cameras on crawlers to obtain inspection data and how that data is used in qualification calculations is the focus of this discussion. Remote Tunnel inspections have been performed using cameras on a stick, referred to as pole cameras, prior to Calendar Year 2003 (CY2003). Since CY2003, six camera equipped crawlers have been used. Crawlers have evolved and improved by incorporating lessons learned from the previous inspections. The latest 2019 crawler successfully traveled the entire length of the tunnel between the Canyon and Sand Filter System and captured images that were previously unseen, thus providing key visual data for the Structural Integrity Program report [2]. The inspection data serves as 1) input to qualification calculations, 2) validates current conditions remain bounded by qualification calculations, and 3) documents a record of change over time. This data is vital for the effective evaluation of the tunnel structure and aids with predicting the life cycle service life safety envelope to protect the public, environment, and facility worker. The goal of the 2019 deployment was to use a more robust vehicle to ensure travel over obstacles, perform the inspection with higher resolution cameras, and have the ability to elevate the cameras to view surfaces previously obscured by abandon-in-place ducts in the tunnel. The inspection information will serve to strengthen the input basis for qualification calculations, versus using excessive conservative calculation assumptions. This 2019 inspection was compared with previous crawler visual evidence to identify change over time to project remaining service life and confirm field conditions remain bounded by qualification calculations. The results of the 2019 Exhaust Tunnel inspection continue to improve and provide a firm basis to make sound engineering judgements regarding tunnel capability and approaches in projecting remaining service life with an aging system and component. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development & Experimental Validation of a Generalized Resistance-Capacitance Model for Numerical Simulation of Phase-Change Material Embedded Heat Exchangers

Latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) using phase change material (PCM) has attracted increased attention as a viable solution for overcoming the mismatch between energy supply and demand for renewable energy-based systems. PCM-embedded heat exchangers (PCM-HX) have the potential to significantly improve thermal performance due to high storage capacity and low temperature variation during the phase change process. Most models for simulating LHTES heat transfer use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, which have high computational costs resulting from considering the complex and time-dependent physics relevant to PCM-HXs. In this paper, a Generalized Resistance Capacitance-based Model (GRCM) was developed to predict the thermal performance of arbitrary PCM-HXs in a computationally efficient manner without compromising modeling accuracy. The GRCM is exercised for three case studies: (i) verification for a single-slabbed finned PCM-HX, (ii) verification and validation for a copper foam/paraffin composite PCM-HX, and (iii) validation for a straight tube annular finned PCM-HX. The copper foam PCM-HX uses an electric heater at the top of HX, while the other two configurations utilize water as heat transfer fluid. For the single-slabbed finned PCM-HX melting case, the mean deviation in average PCM temperature predicted by the GRCM compared to the CFD model was between 0.56 – 0.73 K, with maximum temperature deviation of 2.68 K. For the HTF outlet temperature, the validation results showed that GRCM prediction matches very well with experimental data, with mean temperature deviation of 0.24 K during melting case, while for solidification case was 0.34 K. These results showcase the GRCM’s capability for accurately reproducing the thermal characteristics of PCM-HXs with considerably lower computational effort.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Visualization and Quantification of Wind Induced Variability in Hydrogen Clouds Following Releases of Liquid Hydrogen: Preprint

Well characterized experimental data for consequence model validation is important in progressing the use of liquid hydrogen as an energy carrier. In 2019, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) undertook a series of liquid hydrogen dispersion and combustion experiments as a part of the Pre-normative Research into the Safe Use of Liquid Hydrogen (PRESLHY) project. In partnership between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and HSE, time and spatially varying hydrogen concentration measurements were made in 25 dispersion experiments and 23 congested ignition experiments associated with PRESLHY WP3 and WP5, respectively. These measurements were undertaken using the hydrogen wide area monitoring system developed by NREL. During the 23 congested ignition experiments, high variability was observed in the measured explosion severity during experiments with similar initial conditions. This led to the conclusion that wind, including localized gusts, had a large influence on the dispersion of the hydrogen, and therefore the quantity of hydrogen that was present in the congested region of the explosions. Using the hydrogen concentration measurements taken immediately prior to ignition, the hydrogen clouds were visualized in an attempt to rationalize the variability in overpressure between the tests. Gaussian process regression was applied to quantify the variability of the measured hydrogen concentrations. This analysis could also be used to guide modifications in experimental designs for future research on hydrogen combustion behavior.

HSR&D↗

DOE OSTI2021

Numerical and experimental evaluation of mechanical performance of the multifunctional energy storage composites

This work presents numerical simulation methods to model the mechanical behavior of the multifunctional energy storage composites (MESCs), which consist of a stack of multiple thin battery layers reinforced with through-the-hole polymer rivets and embedded inside carbon fiber composite laminates. MESC has been demonstrated through earlier experiments on its exceptional behavior as a structural element as well as a battery. However, the inherent complex infrastructure of the MESC design has created significant challenges in simulation and modeling. A novel homogenization technique was adopted to characterize the multi-layer properties of battery material using physics-based constitutive equations combined with nonlinear deformation theories to handle the interface between the battery layers. Second, mechanical damage and failure modes among battery materials, polymer reinforcements, and carbon fiber-polymer interfaces were characterized through appropriate models and experiments. The model of MESCs has been implemented in a commercial finite element code in ABAQUS. A comparison of structural response and failure modes from numerical simulations and experimental tests are presented. The results of the study showed that the predictions of elastic and damage responses of MESCs at various loading conditions agreed well with the experimental data. © 2021

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Rig Parameter Data Using Drilling Process Modeling Constraints, Volume 5: Utah FORGE Well 16B(78)-32

Drill rig parameter measurements are routinely used during deep well construction to monitor and guide drilling conditions for improved performance and reduced costs. While insightful into the drilling process, these measurements are of reduced value without a standard to aid in data evaluation and decision making. In the main body of this work (Volume 1), a method is demonstrated whereby rock reduction model constraints are used to interpret drilling response parameters; the method could be applied in real-time to improve decision-making in the field and to further discern technology performance during post-drilling evaluations. Drilling parameters are evaluated using laboratory-validated rock reduction models for predicting the phenomenological response of drag bits (Detournay and Defourny, 1992) in computational algorithms. The method presented has applicability to development of advanced analytics on future geothermal wells using real-time electronic data recording for improved performance and reduced drilling costs. A drilling cost model is also used to show the tradeoff between rate of penetration and bit life and the influence on interval drilling costs. Details of the bit specifications and performance are cataloged in an independent volume, documented under separate cover, for each of the four wells, and include Volume 2: Utah FORGE 16A(78)-32; Volume 3: Utah FORGE 56-32; Volume 4: Utah FORGE 78B-32 and Volume 5: Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Rig Parameter Data Using Drilling Process Modeling Constraints, Volume 4: Utah FORGE Well 78B-32

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Rig Parameter Data Using Drilling Process Modeling Constraints, Volume 3: Utah FORGE Well 56-32

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Comparison of Pre‐Construction and Operational Wake Loss Estimates for Land‐Based Wind Plants

The overall bias between pre‐construction energy yield assessment (EYA) estimates of wind plant energy production and the achieved operational production is improving in the wind industry, but uncertainty remains high for individual wind plants. Wake effects within wind plants are one of the largest sources of energy loss considered in the EYA process, and previous work shows wake loss estimates to be a major source of disagreement among wind energy consultants who perform EYAs. To better understand the accuracy of wake loss predictions, we compare overall operational wake loss estimates based on supervisory control and data acquisition data to pre‐construction estimates provided by six wind energy consultants for five land‐based wind plants in North America. By augmenting existing approaches for quantifying operational wake losses, we estimate wake losses during the period of record for which operational data are available as well as the expected long‐term wake losses, based on historical reanalysis weather data, to which the EYA estimates are compared. To account for power variations at different turbine locations caused by terrain‐induced wind resource heterogeneity, we correct the operational wake loss estimates using predicted freestream wind speed variations from the Wind Systems Engineering Reynolds‐averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) tool. We identify long‐term corrected operational wake losses between 1.9% and 6.4% for the five plants, with a mean loss of 4%. For the project deemed most acceptable for operational wake loss assessment, which is located in the simplest terrain and isolated from neighboring plants, the mean EYA wake loss estimate is within 0.7 percentage points of the operational value of 6.4%. For most of the remaining plants, results suggest that wake losses are generally overpredicted by 2.6–6.3 percentage points. However, operational wake losses may be underestimated for many of these projects because of spatial wind resource variations not captured by the RANS model, external wake effects that are unaccounted for in the estimation process, and wind plant blockage effects. To better understand factors that contribute to the observed wake losses, we investigate operational wake losses as a function of wind direction and wind speed. As expected, wake losses are generally concentrated near wind directions that are aligned with rows of closely spaced turbines and at below‐rated wind speeds; however, for some projects, the energy produced by the wind plant exceeds the estimated potential energy of the plant without wake interactions for certain wind directions and wind speeds, suggesting inaccurate assumptions in the wake loss estimation method for those plants. Lastly, we compare predicted and operational wake losses for individual wind turbines, finding that even when overall wake losses are predicted accurately, large uncertainty exists at the turbine level.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Experimental Validation of Exact Burst Pressure Solutions for Thick-Walled Cylindrical Pressure Vessels

Burst pressure is one of the critical strength parameters used in the design and operation of pressure vessels because it represents the maximum pressure that a vessel can withstand before failing. Historically, the Barlow formula was used as a design base for estimating burst pressure. However, it does not consider the plastic flow response for ductile steels and is applicable only to thin-walled cylinders (i.e., the diameter to thickness ratio D/t ≥ 20). A new multiaxial plastic yield theory was developed to consider the plastic flow response, and the associated theoretical (i.e., Zhu–Leis) solution of burst pressure was obtained and has gained extensive applications in the pipeline industry because it was validated by different full-scale burst test datasets for large-diameter, thin-walled pipelines in a variety of steel grades from Grade B to X120. The Zhu–Leis flow theory of plasticity was recently extended to thick-walled pressure vessels, and the associated exact flow solution of burst pressure was obtained and is applicable to both thin and thick-walled cylindrical shells. Many full-scale burst tests are available for thin-walled line pipes in the pipeline industry, but limited pressure burst tests exist for thick-walled vessels. To validate the newly developed exact solutions of burst pressure for thick-walled cylinders, this paper conducts a series of burst pressure tests on small-diameter, thick-walled pipes. In particular, six burst tests are carried out for three thick-walled pipes in Grade B carbon steel. These pipes have a nominal diameter of 2.375 inches (60.33 mm) and three nominal wall thicknesses of 0.154, 0.218, and 0.344 inches (3.91, 5.54, and 8.74 mm), leading to D/t = 15.4, 10.9, and 6.9, respectively. With the burst test data, comparisons show that the Zhu–Leis flow solution of burst pressure matches well the burst test data for thick-walled pipes. Thus, these burst tests validate the accuracy of the Zhu–Leis flow solution of burst pressure for thick-walled cylindrical vessels.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

DIAS: A Data-Informed Active Subspace Regularization Framework for Inverse Problems

This paper presents a regularization framework that aims to improve the fidelity of Tikhonov inverse solutions. At the heart of the framework is the data-informed regularization idea that only data-uninformed parameters need to be regularized, while the data-informed parameters, on which data and forward model are integrated, should remain untouched. We propose to employ the active subspace method to determine the data-informativeness of a parameter. The resulting framework is thus called a data-informed (DI) active subspace (DIAS) regularization. Four proposed DIAS variants are rigorously analyzed, shown to be robust with the regularization parameter and capable of avoiding polluting solution features informed by the data. They are thus well suited for problems with small or reasonably small noise corruptions in the data. Furthermore, the DIAS approaches can effectively reuse any Tikhonov regularization codes/libraries. Though they are readily applicable for nonlinear inverse problems, we focus on linear problems in this paper in order to gain insights into the framework. Various numerical results for linear inverse problems are presented to verify theoretical findings and to demonstrate advantages of the DIAS framework over the Tikhonov, truncated SVD, and the TSVD-based DI approaches.

Nguyen, Hai↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model Calibration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tutorial

The purpose of this tutorial is to demonstrate how to use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to calibrate a model. By calibration, we mean the selection of model parameters (and, when relevant, structures). A common goal in model development and diagnostics is calibration, or the identification of model structures and parameters which are consistent with data. While models can be calibrated through hand-tuning parameters or minimizing simple error metrics such as root-mean-square-error (RMSE), these approaches can underrepresent the probabilistic nature of the data-generating process, as well as the potential for multiple model configurations to be consistent with the data. Probabilistic uncertainty quantification, which is the topic of this notebook, can address these concerns. This tutorial is presented as an appendix to the e-book: Addressing Uncertainty in MultiSector Dynamics Research.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying uncertainty in regional-scale seismic moment tensors

We examine the ability of three different inversion methods: 1) first motion (FM) inversions, 2) amplitude inversions, and 3) full waveform (FW) time variable moment tensor (TVMT) inversions, to recover an accurate source mechanism for simulated data for an earthquake as well as an explosion. The ability of inversion methods, such as the ones described above, to recover accurate models representative of the data depends on both a priori information as well as the quality of data being inverted. Therefore, we examine the effect that station geometry, geologic model, and noise level has on the inversion and estimated source mechanism. We find that FM data can provide more robust solutions than amplitude data and are not as sensitive to inaccurate earth models, especially in low-noise cases, and overall FW inversions are the most accurate out of the methods examined, but can still be biased by inaccurate earth models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Insight into premixed diethoxymethane flames: Laminar burning velocities, temperatures, and emissions behaviour

Diethoxymethane ((CH 3 CH 2 O) 2 CH 2 , DEM) is a promising carbon-neutral fuel. DEM is a diether or acetal with a molecular structure similar to oxymethylene ethers (CH 3 O–(CH 2 O)n–CH 3 , OME n ). Thus, DEM can be expected to have a similar combustion behavior to OMEs, reducing harmful emissions such as NO x and particulate matter (PM) in internal combustion engines. From both experimental and kinetic modeling, fundamental studies on DEM are scarce in the literature. More studies are required to gain a detailed insight into the oxidation kinetics of DEM. Laminar burning velocity (LBV) is a critical property that allows a detailed assessment of the potential application of DEM in combustion devices. Unfortunately, the literature on the LBV of DEM is limited. Therefore, in this study we have investigated the LBV of DEM using two reactors for the first time, namely a heat flux burner and a combustion chamber. The experimental data is reported for equivalence ratio between 0.7 and 1.7, initial temperatures of 368–423 K, and initial pressure of 1–5 bar. In addition, we developed a detailed kinetic model extending our recent work of Shrestha et al. (Combust. Flame. 246 (2022) 112,426) to characterize the combustion behavior of DEM utilizing the new experimental data from this work and the literature data. Our model performs remarkably well in capturing the newly measured LBV experimental data over various experimental conditions. We found that DEM and dimethoxy methane (DMM) have similar values of LBVs (within ±1.5 cm/s) for a given condition, which indicates that intermediate chemistry governs the flame chemistry. Despite DEM being a larger molecule that is expected to have slightly lower LBVs than DMM, its effect on the measured values of LBVs is negligible. Finally, we experimentally measured NO x formation in DEM flame for the first time. The stochiometric flame has the highest NO x formation. The proposed model predicted the equivalence ratio dependence of NO x nicely. However, it overestimates the NO x formation for stoichiometric DEM/air mixtures by ~30 %. The model suggests that the thermal NO formation route is favored at lean and stochiometric conditions. In contrast, the prompt NO formation route is enhanced for rich mixtures.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multichannel gas-uptake/evolution reactor for monitoring liquid-phase chemical reactions

The design of a headspace pressure-monitoring reactor for measuring the uptake/evolution of gas in gas–liquid chemical transformations is described. The reactor features a parallel setup with ten-reactor cells, each featuring a low working volume of 0.2–2 ml, a pressure capacity from 0 to 150 PSIa, and a high sensitivity pressure transducer. The reactor cells are composed of commercially available disposable thickwalled glassware and compact monolithic weld assemblies. The software interface controls the reactor temperature while monitoring pressure in each of the parallel reactor cells. Reactions are easy to set up and yield high-density gas uptake/evolution data. This instrument is especially well suited to acquire quantitative time-course data for reactions with small quantities of gas consumed or produced.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗