Results for “weighted projection” — Page 49

DOE OSTI2022

Multimodel ensemble predictions of precipitation using bayesian neural networks

Multimodel ensembling improves predictions and considers model uncertainties. In this study, we present a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) ensemble approach for large-scale precipitation predictions based on a set of climate models. BNN infers spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases through the calibration against observations. This ensemble scheme of BNN sufficiently leverages individual model skill for accurate predictions as well as provides interpretability about which models contribute more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times to inform model development. Additionally, BNN accurately quantifies epistemic uncertainty to avoid overconfident projections. We demonstrate BNN’s superior prediction performance to three state-of-the-art ensemble approaches and discuss its interpretability and uncertainty quantification.

Fan, Patrick↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multimodel Ensemble Predictions of Precipitation using Bayesian Neural Networks

Multimodel ensembling improves predictions and considers model uncertainties. In this study, we present a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) ensemble approach for large-scale precipitation predictions based on a set of climate models. BNN infers spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases through the calibration against observations. This ensemble scheme of BNN sufficiently leverages individual model skill for accurate predictions as well as provides interpretability about which models contribute more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times to inform model development. Additionally, BNN accurately quantifies epistemic uncertainty to avoid overconfident projections. We demonstrate BNN’s superior prediction performance to three state-of-the-art ensemble approaches and discuss its interpretability and uncertainty quantification.

Fan, Patrick↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-Strength, High-Ductility, High Entropy Alloys with High-Efficiency Native Oxide Solar Absorbers for Concentrating Solar Power Systems

This EPSCoR Project has been investigating the synergy between the excellent high-temperature mechanical behavior of FeMnNiAlCr high entropy alloys (HEA) and the high solar absorptance of their native oxides for high efficiency concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) systems working at >700°C. While HEAs have attracted substantial interest in recent years, most investigations have focused on their applications as structural materials rather than functional materials. This EPSCoR project discovered that FeMnNiAlCr HEAs can potentially be applied synergistically as both a structural and functional material for high-efficiency concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) systems working at >700°C. The HEA itself would be used in high-temperature tubing to carry molten salts or supercritical CO 2 , while its surface oxide would act as a high-efficiency solar thermal absorber. With Fe and Mn being the major components in these HEAs (adding up to ~70 at.% of the alloy), these materials are much more cost-effective than the Ni-based superalloys currently being investigated for high-temperature CSP systems. Through this research, these Fe-Mn based HEAs have demonstrated yield strengths 2-3x greater than that of stainless steel at 700°C and a creep lifetime >800 h at 700ºC under a typical CSP tubing mechanical load of 35 MPa. Their Mn-rich surface oxides maintain a high optical-to-thermal conversion efficiency of ~87% under 1000x solar concentration ratio for 20 simulated day-night thermal cycles between 750ºC and room temperature. In preliminary corrosion studies, these HEAs have sustained immersion in unpurified bromide molten salts for 14 days at 750°C with <2% weight loss, in contrast to 70% weight loss from a 316 stainless steel reference. The simultaneous achievement of promising mechanical, optical, and thermochemical properties in this FeMnNiAlCr system opens the door to new applications of HEAs in solar energy harvesting. Partnerships with Ames Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) also advanced our understanding of the fundamental structure-property relationships through atomic scale material characterization and first-principles computational modeling. The key research results in this project can potentially be extended to other HEAs and their native oxides. In terms of applications, the proposed FeMnNiAlCr HEA/native oxide system could potentially exceed the mechanical and the optical performance of existing tubing and solar coating materials under EERE’s CSP program at lower cost, which also aligns well with the EPSCoR Science and Technology strategies of New Hampshire in boosting the deployment of renewable energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2006

Electrical Conductivity in Textiles

Copper is the most widely used electrical conductor. Like most metals, though, it has several drawbacks: it is heavy, expensive, and can break. Fibers that conduct electricity could be the solutions to these problems, and they are of great interest to NASA. Conductive fibers provide lightweight alternatives to heavy copper wiring in a variety of settings, including aerospace, where weight is always a chief concern. This is an area where NASA is always seeking improved materials. The fibers are also more cost-effective than metals. Expenditure is another area where NASA is always looking to make improvements. In the case of electronics that are confined to small spaces and subject to severe stress, copper is prone to breaking and losing connection over time. Flexible conductive fibers eliminate that problem. They are more supple and stronger than brittle copper and, thus, find good use in these and similar situations. While clearly a much-needed material, electrically conductive fibers are not readily available. The cost of new technology development, with all the pitfalls of troubleshooting production and the years of testing, and without the guarantee of an immediate market, is often too much of a financial hazard for companies to risk. NASA, however, saw the need for electrical fibers in its many projects and sought out a high-tech textile company that was already experimenting in this field, Syscom Technology, Inc., of Columbus, Ohio. Syscom was founded in 1993 to provide computer software engineering services and basic materials research in the areas of high-performance polymer fibers and films. In 1999, Syscom decided to focus its business and technical efforts on development of high-strength, high-performance, and electrically conductive polymer fibers. The company developed AmberStrand, an electrically conductive, low-weight, strong-yet-flexible hybrid metal-polymer YARN.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1974

The total flow concept for geothermal energy conversion

A geothermal development project has been initiated at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLL) to emphasize development of methods for recovery and conversion of the energy in geothermal deposits of hot brines. Temperatures of these waters vary from 150 C to more than 300 C with dissolved solids content ranging from less than 0.1% to over 25% by weight. Of particular interest are the deposits of high-temperature/high-salinity brines, as well as less saline brines, known to occur in the Salton Trough of California. Development of this resource will depend on resolution of the technical problems of brine handling, scale and precipitation control, and corrosion/erosion resistant systems for efficient conversion of thermal to electrical energy. Research experience to date has shown these problems to be severe. Hence, the LLL program emphasizes development of an entirely different approach called the Total Flow concept.

Austin, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An engineering code to analyze hypersonic thermal management systems

Thermal loads on current and future aircraft are increasing and as a result are stressing the energy collection, control, and dissipation capabilities of current thermal management systems and technology. The thermal loads for hypersonic vehicles will be no exception. In fact, with their projected high heat loads and fluxes, hypersonic vehicles are a prime example of systems that will require thermal management systems (TMS) that have been optimized and integrated with the entire vehicle to the maximum extent possible during the initial design stages. This will not only be to meet operational requirements, but also to fulfill weight and performance constraints in order for the vehicle to takeoff and complete its mission successfully. To meet this challenge, the TMS can no longer be two or more entirely independent systems, nor can thermal management be an after thought in the design process, the typical pervasive approach in the past. Instead, a TMS that was integrated throughout the entire vehicle and subsequently optimized will be required. To accomplish this, a method that iteratively optimizes the TMS throughout the vehicle will not only be highly desirable, but advantageous in order to reduce the manhours normally required to conduct the necessary tradeoff studies and comparisons. A thermal management engineering computer code that is under development and being managed at Wright Laboratory, Wright-Patterson AFB, is discussed. The primary goal of the code is to aid in the development of a hypersonic vehicle TMS that has been optimized and integrated on a total vehicle basis.

Vangriethuysen, Valerie J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Risks and reliability of manufacturing processes as related to composite materials for spacecraft structures

Fabricating primary aircraft and spacecraft structures using advanced composite materials entail both benefits and risks. The benefits come from much improved strength-to-weight ratios and stiffness-to-weight ratios, potential for less part count, ability to tailor properties, chemical and solvent resistance, and superior thermal properties. On the other hand, the risks involved include high material costs, lack of processing experience, expensive labor, poor reproducibility, high toxicity for some composites, and a variety of space induced risks. The purpose of this project is to generate a manufacturing database for a selected number of materials with potential for space applications, and to rely on this database to develop quantitative approaches to screen candidate materials and processes for space applications on the basis of their manufacturing risks including costs. So far, the following materials have been included in the database: epoxies, polycyanates, bismalemides, PMR-15, polyphenylene sulfides, polyetherimides, polyetheretherketone, and aluminum lithium. The first four materials are thermoset composites; the next three are thermoplastic composites, and the last one is is a metal. The emphasis of this database is on factors affecting manufacturing such as cost of raw material, handling aspects which include working life and shelf life of resins, process temperature, chemical/solvent resistance, moisture resistance, damage tolerance, toxicity, outgassing, thermal cycling, and void content, nature or type of process, associate tooling, and in-process quality assurance. Based on industry experience and published literature, a relative ranking was established for each of the factors affecting manufacturing as listed above. Potential applications of this database include the determination of a delta cost factor for specific structures with a given process plan and a general methodology to screen materials and processes for incorporation into the current conceptual design optimization of future spacecrafts as being coordinated by the Vehicle Analysis Branch where this research is being conducted.

Bao, Han P.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Kinetics of Cyclic Oxidation and Cracking and Finite Element Analysis of MA956 and Sapphire/MA956 Composite System

Sapphire fiber-reinforced MA956 composites hold promise for significant weight savings and increased high-temperature structural capability, as compared to unreinforced MA956. As part of an overall assessment of the high-temperature characteristics of this material system, cyclic oxidation behavior was studied at 1093 C and 1204 C. Initially, both sets of coupons exhibited parabolic oxidation kinetics. Later, monolithic MA956 exhibited spallation and a linear weight loss, whereas the composite showed a linear weight gain without spallation. Weight loss of the monolithic MA956 resulted from the linking of a multiplicity of randomly oriented and closely spaced surface cracks that facilitated ready spallation. By contrast, cracking of the composite's oxide layer was nonintersecting and aligned nominally parallel with the orientation of the subsurface reinforcing fibers. Oxidative lifetime of monolithic MA956 was projected from the observed oxidation kinetics. Linear elastic, finite element continuum, and micromechanics analyses were performed on coupons of the monolithic and composite materials. Results of the analyses qualitatively agreed well with the observed oxide cracking and spallation behavior of both the MA956 and the Sapphire/MA956 composite coupons.

Lee, Kang N.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Vortex Wake Turbulence: Flight Tests Conducted During 1970

A flight test program designed to obtain data on the characteristics of wing-tip vortices generated by large jet aircraft was initiated on 12 February 1970. The objective was to update the interim air traffic separation standards issued on 21 January 1970 restricting the airspace behind the B-747 and C-5A aircraft 60 deg either side and 2,000 feet below to a distance of 10 miles. The program involved flight tests at three different locations, which were conducted simultaneously. (1) At the Edwards Air Force Base test range, a NASA CV-990 and F-104 probed the vortices of a C-5A. This supplemented previous flight tests in U-3A and F-104 behind a B-52 and C-5A. (2) At Seattle, the Boeing Company probed the vortices of a B-747 and a B-707-300 with a B-737 and F-86. In addition, approach, landing, takeoff, and crossing runway tests were conducted with a B-737 trailing a B-747. Immediately following the Edwards tests, the NASA CV-990 proceeded to Seattle and engaged in probing flights behind the same B-747 and B-707-300. (3) At Idaho Falls, Idaho, FAA personnel, utilizing the Atomic Energy Commission and Environmental Science Services Administration facilities and a 200 ft, instrumented tower, conducted 114 flights past the tower. The aircraft were positioned to permit their vortices to descend into the air flow sensors and smoke generated from various levels on the tower. This permitted obtaining measurements and photography of the vortex core diameters, tangential velocities and related characteristics. Immediately following this test phase, analysis of the interrelated data was completed by the project managers representing NASA, Boeing and FAA and a Compilation of Work Papers was issued on 30 April 1970. These data were the basis of a revised General Notice issued on 26 February 1970 which, in essence, modified the restricted airspace to five miles behind heavy jets in the 300,000 lb. gross takeoff weight category.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2000

Status of High-Strength Nanotube Composites at Johnson Space Center

Single-wall carbon nanotubes offer extraordinary mechanical properties that could start a revolution in materials science. The combination of very high strength and modulus with high strain to failure makes nanotubes an ideal fiber for strengthening in composites. Because of the scale of these fibers, new challenges exist for processing of composite materials and materials characterization. Our project includes aspects of nanotube materials from production and characterization to purification and incorporation into composites for mechanical testing. Early results show that some new techniques will be necessary for the strength of single wall nanotubes to be fully utilized. Current research at JSC focuses on structural polymeric materials to attempt to lower the weight of spacecraft necessary for interplanetary missions. Studies show good nanotube dispersion and wetting by the epoxy materials. Results of tensile strength tests will also be reported. This presentation will focus on current research into polymer nanotube composites and the next steps toward this revolution in aerospace materials.

Files, Bradley S.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Methods Reduce Cost, Enhance Quality of Nanotubes

For all the challenges posed by the microgravity conditions of space, weight is actually one of the more significant problems NASA faces in the development of the next generation of U.S. space vehicles. For the Agency s Constellation Program, engineers at NASA centers are designing and testing new vessels as safe, practical, and cost-effective means of space travel following the eventual retirement of the space shuttle. Program components like the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle, intended to carry astronauts to the International Space Station and the Moon, must be designed to specific weight requirements to manage fuel consumption and match launch rocket capabilities; Orion s gross liftoff weight target is about 63,789 pounds. Future space vehicles will require even greater attention to lightweight construction to help conserve fuel for long-range missions to Mars and beyond. In order to reduce spacecraft weight without sacrificing structural integrity, NASA is pursuing the development of materials that promise to revolutionize not only spacecraft construction, but also a host of potential applications on Earth. Single-walled carbon nanotubes are one material of particular interest. These tubular, single-layer carbon molecules - 100,000 of them braided together would be no thicker than a human hair - display a range of remarkable characteristics. Possessing greater tensile strength than steel at a fraction of the weight, the nanotubes are efficient heat conductors with metallic or semiconductor electrical properties depending on their diameter and chirality (the pattern of each nanotube s hexagonal lattice structure). All of these properties make the nanotubes an appealing material for spacecraft construction, with the potential for nanotube composites to reduce spacecraft weight by 50 percent or more. The nanotubes may also feature in a number of other space exploration applications, including life support, energy storage, and sensor technologies. NASA s various efforts with carbon nanotubes have made it a global leader in this field. Among the many examples are Johnson Space Center s Carbon Nanotube Project, which focuses on bulk nanotube production, purification, and application, and Goddard Space Flight Center s improved arc discharge method of nanotube production, developed under the direction of Jeannette Benavides (featured in Spinoff 2007 and 2008). While the Agency continues its own research, it partners with private companies to advance this unique technology for use on Earth as well as among the stars.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2015

Random Vibration Testing of Advanced Wet Tantalum Capacitors

Advanced wet tantalum capacitors allow for improved performance of power supply systems along with substantial reduction of size and weight of the systems that is especially beneficial for space electronics. Due to launch-related stresses, acceptance testing of all space systems includes random vibration test (RVT). However, many types of advanced wet tantalum capacitors cannot pass consistently RVT at conditions specified in MIL-PRF-39006, which impedes their use in space projects. This requires a closer look at the existing requirements, modes and mechanisms of failures, specifics of test conditions, and acceptance criteria. In this work, different lots of advanced wet tantalum capacitors from four manufacturers have been tested at step stress random vibration conditions while their currents were monitored before, during, and after the testing. It has been shown that the robustness of the parts and their reliability are mostly due to effective self-healing processes and limited current spiking or minor scintillations caused by RVT do not increase the risk of failures during operation. A simple model for scintillations events has been used to simulate current spiking during RVT and optimize test conditions. The significance of scintillations and possible effects of gas generation have been discussed and test acceptance criteria for limited current spiking have been suggested.

cracking↗

NASA NTRS2015

Random Vibration Testing of Advanced Wet Tantalum Capacitors

Advanced wet tantalum capacitors allow for improved performance of power supply systems along with substantial reduction of size and weight of the systems that is especially beneficial for space electronics. Due to launch-related stresses, acceptance testing of all space systems includes random vibration test (RVT). However, many types of advanced wet tantalum capacitors cannot pass consistently RVT at conditions specified in MIL-PRF-39006, which impedes their use in space projects. This requires a closer look at the existing requirements, modes and mechanisms of failures, specifics of test conditions, and acceptance criteria. In this work, different lots of advanced wet tantalum capacitors from four manufacturers have been tested at step stress random vibration conditions while their currents were monitored before, during, and after the testing. It has been shown that the robustness of the parts and their reliability are mostly due to effective self-healing processes and limited current spiking or minor scintillations caused by RVT do not increase the risk of failures during operation. A simple model for scintillations events has been used to simulate current spiking during RVT and optimize test conditions. The significance of scintillations and possible effects of gas generation have been discussed and test acceptance criteria for limited current spiking have been suggested.

cracking↗

NASA NTRS2015

Random Vibration Testing of Advanced Wet Tantalum Capacitors

Advanced wet tantalum capacitors allow for improved performance of power supply systems along with substantial reduction of size and weight of the systems that is especially beneficial for space electronics. Due to launch-related stresses, acceptance testing of all space systems includes random vibration test (RVT). However, many types of advanced wet tantalum capacitors cannot pass consistently RVT at conditions specified in MIL-PRF-39006, which impedes their use in space projects. This requires a closer look at the existing requirements, modes and mechanisms of failures, specifics of test conditions, and acceptance criteria. In this work, different lots of advanced wet tantalum capacitors from four manufacturers have been tested at step stress random vibration conditions while their currents were monitored before, during, and after the testing. It has been shown that the robustness of the parts and their reliability are mostly due to effective self-healing processes and limited current spiking or minor scintillations caused by RVT do not increase the risk of failures during operation. A simple model for scintillations events has been used to simulate current spiking during RVT and optimize test conditions. The significance of scintillations and possible effects of gas generation have been discussed and test acceptance criteria for limited current spiking have been suggested.

wet tantalum capacitors↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-Efficiency, Medium-Voltage-Input, Solid-State-Transformer-Based 400-kW/1000V/400A Extreme Fast Charger for Electric Vehicles

Range anxiety and long battery charging time continue to be critical challenges to mass adaptation of EVs. A major identified gap to wider adoption of BEVs is the ability and availability to refuel quickly or to fast charge. Studies have shown that in areas where drivers have access to 50-kW or 120-kW fast charge stations, annual electric vehicle (EV) miles traveled (i.e., eVMT) increased by over 25%, even in cases where fast charging was used for 1% to 5% of total charging events. Charge stations of higher power not only alleviate the “range anxiety” and reduce the driver’s waiting time, but also requires less investment. Michigan Energy Office completed a study in early 2019 titled “Electric Vehicle Charger Placement Optimization in Michigan: Phase I – Highways”. This study finds a system with 150kW chargers, though more expensive individually, actually has lower total system cost when compared to a 50kW charging system when serving the same battery size EV. To be truly competitive to the ICEV refueling experience, even higher power stations are necessary. However, high power charge stations would create large power draws from the grid. If this occurs during peak demand periods, grid capacity could be overloaded. This problem needs to be addressed to reduce the impact on the electric utility infrastructure. The main goal of this project is to develop a 400-kW/400-A XFC system targeting total efficiency of 96.5 percent from the MVAC grid to a vehicle. The novel SST power cell topology, combined with a new silicon carbide (SiC) MOSFET device, enables a 3.5 percent improvement in system efficiency, a 50-percent smaller equipment footprint, and four times less weight than today’s DCFC systems. The SST technology would directly utilize MVAC at 4.8-kV or 13.2-kV. This would eliminate the line frequency transformer (LFT), which steps down medium-voltage AC to 3-Phase 480-V line-to-line voltage in current DCFC systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2001

Stellar Evolution in Starburst Galaxies

The main thrust of the program was to obtain UV spectroscopy of a number of massive and hot luminous (OB type) stars in the nearby galaxy called the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). The objective was to analyze their atmospheres and winds so as to determine the effect of the lower abundance of the SIVIC on these parameters. Furthermore, the differences in evolution could be investigated. Additionally, the UV spectra themselves would be suitably weighted and systematically combined to provide a template for comparison to very distant galaxies formed in the early history of the Universe which also have a low abundance of elements. The spectra have been obtained and the analysis is proceeding, primarily by the groups in Munich and at STScl who are the leads for this project. Given the important role of the nearby SMC galaxy as a template of low metal abundance, I have begun to investigate the YOUNGEST phases of massive star birth, before the most massive and hottest stars become optically visible. Typically these stars form in clusters, in some cases having tens to hundreds of OB type stars. In this phase, each star is still buried in its natal cloud and visible only in the infrared (IR) from its self-heated dust and/or from radio free-free emission of the surrounding hydrogen (HII) region. Efforts to find and identify these buried clusters were conducted using a large radio telescope. A number of these were found and further analysis of the data is underway. These clusters are not visible optically, but ought to be seen in the IR, and are a likely topic for HST photometry on NICMOS. A proposal to do this will be made next semester. These objects are the precursors of the optically visible clusters that contain massive and hot luminous stars.

Conti, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2002

Rejuvenation of Spent Media via Supported Emulsion Liquid Membranes

The overall goal of this project is to maximize the reuseability of spent fermentation media. Supported emulsion liquid membrane separation, a highly efficient extraction technique, is used to remove inhibitory byproducts during fermentation; thus, improving the yield while reducing the need for fresh water. The key objectives of this study are: Develop an emulsion liquid membrane system targeting low molecular weight organic acids which has minimal toxicity on a variety of microbial systems; Conduct mass transfer studies to allow proper modeling and design of a supported emulsion liquid membrane system; Investigate the effect of gravity on emulsion coalescence within the membrane unit; Access the effect of water re-use on fermentation yields in a model microbial system; Develop a perfusion-type fermentor utilizing a supported emulsion liquid membrane system to control inhibitory fermentation byproducts; Work for the coming year will focus on the determination of toxicity of various solvents, selection of the emulsifying agents, as well as characterizing the mass transfer of hollow-fiber contactors.

Wiencek, John M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Mars Spark Source Prototype Developed

The Mars Spark Source Prototype (MSSP) hardware was developed as part of a proof of concept system for the detection of trace metals such as lead, cadmium, and arsenic in Martian dusts and soils. A spark discharge produces plasma from a soil sample, and detectors measure the optical emission from metals in the plasma to identify and quantify them. Trace metal measurements are vital in assessing whether or not the Martian environment will be toxic to human explorers. The current method of x-ray fluorescence can yield concentrations of major species only. Other instruments are incompatible with the volume, weight, and power constraints for a Mars mission. The new instrument will be developed primarily for use in the Martian environment, but it would be adaptable for terrestrial use in environmental monitoring. The NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field initiated the development of the MSSP as part of Glenn's Director's Discretionary Fund project for the Spark Analysis Detection of Trace Metal Species in Martian Dusts and Soils. The objective of this project is to develop and demonstrate a compact, sensitive optical instrument for the detection of trace hazardous metals in Martian dusts and soils.

Eichenberg, Dennis J.↗