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DOE OSTI2023

Biological particles and aerosol-cloud interactions in the Southern Great Plains (Final Report)

The United States Southern Great Plains (SGP) is the genesis for much of the warm season precipitation in the central and eastern United States. While atmospheric thermodynamics and large-scale dynamics play an important role in formation of precipitation, precipitation mechanisms are also sensitive to aerosols. Aerosols can suppress precipitation as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) or act as ice nucleating particles (INP) in deep convective clouds. This project focused on understanding the role of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP) in the region and its influence on cloud formation. Specifically, we focused on biological aerosol in the form of pollen, one type of PBAP that is emitted in large yet variable quantities from vegetation in the mid latitudes. Field observations provide evidence of pollen in the planetary boundary layer and pollen components in cloud droplets and fine particulate matter. Further, pollen grains can easily rupture when wet, forming smaller, sub pollen particles with sizes less than one micron. We evaluated the potential for PBAP events at the Department of Energy (DoE) SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) research facility due to the rich dataset available. We also developed model simulations that accounted for pollen emission and the generation of sub pollen particles, which have been shown to be both cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles. The proposed work was designed to address the following questions: 1. What are the physical and chemical signatures of biological aerosol such as pollen in SGP ARM measurements? 2. What is the role of pollen-derived particles on deep convection and precipitation in the Central US? Using measurements from the DoE SGP ARM site and recent airborne campaigns, we evaluated the signatures of pollen and pollen-derived aerosols on optical properties, cloud properties and precipitation (Subba et al., 2021). We identified pollen-driven events over the data record and used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with fully coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem) to conduct chemically realistic simulations of aerosols during and summer mesoscale convective events in the Southern Great Plains (Subba et al., in review). This work improved our understanding of the role of biological aerosol on clouds and precipitation in the Central United States and placed these results in context with anthropogenically-driven processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Biological particles and aerosol-cloud interactions in the Southern Great Plains

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid Basis and Multi-Center Grid Method for Strong-Field Processes

We present a time-dependent framework that combines a hybrid basis, consisting of Gaussian-type orbitals (GTOs) and finite-element discrete-variable representation (FEDVR) functions, with a multicenter grid to simulate strong-field and attosecond dynamics in atoms and molecules. The method incorporates the construction of the orthonormal hybrid basis, the evaluation of electronic integrals, a unitary time-propagation scheme, and the extraction of optical and photoelectron observables. Its accuracy and robustness are benchmarked on one-electron systems such as atomic hydrogen and the dihydrogen cation (H$^+_2$) through comparisons with essentially-exact reference results for bound-state energies, high-harmonic generation spectra, photoionization cross sections, and photoelectron momentum distributions. This work establishes the groundwork for its integration with quantum-chemistry methods, which is already operational but will be detailed in future work, thereby enabling ab initio simulations of correlated polyatomic systems in intense ultrafast laser fields.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1975

Performance characteristics of aerodynamically optimum turbines for wind energy generators

This paper presents a brief discussion of the aerodynamic methodology for wind energy generator turbines, an approach to the design of aerodynamically optimum wind turbines covering a broad range of design parameters, some insight on the effect on performance of nonoptimum blade shapes which may represent lower fabrication costs, the annual wind turbine energy for a family of optimum wind turbines, and areas of needed research. On the basis of the investigation, it is concluded that optimum wind turbines show high performance over a wide range of design velocity ratios; that structural requirements impose constraints on blade geometry; that variable pitch wind turbines provide excellent power regulation and that annual energy output is insensitive to design rpm and solidity of optimum wind turbines.

Rohrbach, C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accurate and Simple Parametrization to Estimate Solar UV from GHI and Other Accessible Variables

This study is part of a broader program that aims to generate reliable ultraviolet (UV) data for several applications. This work presents a simple and fast parametrization to estimate UV solar irradiation at the ground level from global horizontal irradiance (GHI) information. The work focuses on UVB (280-315 nm) and erythemic UV (UVE) irradiance weighted by the average skin response.

GHI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effect of particle size and moisture on flow performance of loblolly pine anatomical fractions: Experimental findings and model predictions

The rising energy demand has highlighted biomass as a promising next-generation energy source. However, commercializing biomass-derived energy faces challenges, particularly in handling biomass feedstock. Factors like particle size, shape, moisture content, and surface roughness significantly impact biomass flowability. This study addresses a crucial knowledge gap by examining the effects of particle size and moisture content on the flow behavior and shear properties of different anatomical fractions of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda). The bulk shear behavior was examined using a Schulze ring shear tester, while flow performance was tested through gravity-driven flow experiments in a variable wedge-shape hopper. Results were incorporated into empirical and machine learning-based flow prediction models to evaluate their accuracy and limitations. The study found that samples with higher moisture content show higher unconfined yield strength. The critical arching distance increased with particle size, e.g., from approximately 13 and 33 mm for 2- and 6-mm whole chips, respectively at a 32-degree inclination angle. Conversely, the flow rate decreased for a given hopper opening as particle size increased. For instance, at a 60-mm hopper opening and a 32-degree inclination angle, the mass flow rates for 2- and 6-mm whole chips were 7.83 and 6.42 tonne/h, respectively. The empirical model consistently overpredicted the mass flow rate for all anatomical fractions, while the machine learning model more accurately predicted the central tendency of flow rate but was insensitive to varying tissue proportions. These novel findings provide comprehensive characterization of anatomical fractions, reveal significant combined effects of particle size and moisture content on biomass flow behavior, and demonstrate a better predictive accuracy of a machine learning model, all of which are useful for optimizing material handling strategies and biomass utilization technologies in the industry.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing integrated analysis of national and global goal pursuit by endogenizing economic productivity

Analysis with integrated assessment models (IAMs) and multisector dynamics models (MSDs) of global and national challenges and opportunities, including pursuit of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), requires projections of economic growth. In turn, the pursuit of multiple interacting goals affects economic productivity and growth, generating complex feedback loops among actions and objectives. Yet, most analysis uses either exogenous projections of productivity and growth or specifications endogenously enriched with a very small set of drivers. Extending endogenous treatment of productivity to represent two-way interactions with a significant set of goal-related variables can considerably enhance analysis. Among such variables incorporated in this project are aspects of human development (e.g., education, health, poverty reduction), socio-political change (e.g., governance capacity and quality), and infrastructure (e.g. water and sanitation and modern energy access), all in conditional interaction with underlying technological advance and economic convergence among countries. Using extensive datasets across countries and time, this project broadly endogenizes total factor productivity (TFP) within a large-scale, multi-issue IAM, the International Futures (IFs) model system. We demonstrate the utility of the resultant open system via comparison of new TFP projections with those produced for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, via integrated analysis of economic growth potential, and via multi-scenario analysis of progress toward the SDGs. We find that the integrated system can reproduce existing SSP projections, help anticipate differential economic progress across countries, and facilitate extended, integrated analysis of trade-offs and synergies in pursuit of the SDGs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Oxidation Behavior and Property Degradation of Nuclear Graphites

During its multidecade operation in the core of nuclear reactors, graphite components are subjected to aggressive and continuous exposure to a high field of ionizing and neutron irradiation, high temperature, and various types of present and postulated chemical attacks. High density, high crystallinity polygranular synthetic graphite is unique among other materials for its extraordinary capacity of resisting and adapting to the aggression inflicted by high temperature, high energy neutron bombardment and ionizing gamma radiation. But, as a carbonaceous material, even though of very high purity, graphite is reactive towards common oxidizing agents: oxygen, carbon dioxide, water. Safe operation of HTGRs relies, among other aspects, on engineered safeguard systems for efficient and continuous protection of graphite components against oxidation. Graphite oxidation behavior was, and continues to be, an important direction of theoretical and experimental research, engineering analyses, models and simulations, and design and safety regulations. The avalanche of publications, reports, experimental data, computer codes, and regulatory documents related to oxidation behavior of nuclear graphite is now accelerating to new levels, prompted by the increased interest for nuclear energy as a clean, carbon-free energy source. Even though public’s perception of nuclear energy advantages may still be influenced by the memories of past accidents of nuclear reactors from generations II and III, the community of informed scientists and engineers, regulators and statemen knows that generation IV of nuclear reactors is designed at very high safety standards, doubled by great advances of scientific knowledge and technological progress. One of routes of these recent advances is directed at better understanding of graphite oxidation behavior, its relationship with graphite manufacturing and microstructural properties, along with the effects of various environmental factors and process variables. Together, the recent progress in manufacturing, properties characterization, and modeling of intricated physical and chemical processes that concur to the oxidation behavior led to development of powerful simulation codes able to analyze various scenarios of normal operation and hypothetical off-normal events, and thus to clearly specify the allowable parameters envelopes for the designers, constructors, and operators of current and future modular HTGRs. This review begins with an introduction on manufacturing methods, structure, and properties of nuclear graphite, including basic requirements that this specialty graphite type must satisfy for nuclear use. It continues with a chapter on environmental effects on nuclear graphite, where emphasis is placed less on irradiation and much more on oxidation phenomena, their safety implications, and the basic traits of chronic and acute oxidation by air (oxygen) and water (humidity, steam). Particular attention is placed on the three graphite grades of interest for this document (IG-110, NBG-18, PCEA). A chapter on properties degradation induced by oxidation follows, with focus on density, dimensional, and mechanical properties changes. The next chapter is intended as a brief review of various approaches used for modeling of graphite oxidation behavior. It summarizes the progress of oxidation models, from the early attempts to complex computational approaches interfaced with specialized computer codes designed for nuclear reactor simulations. Last, a list is presented of knowledge gaps where more research is needed. A short summary concludes the review.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development Support for NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM): Cooperative Research and Development, CRADA Number CRD-20-16998 (Final Report)

The variable nature of renewable generation, which depends on the sun shining and wind blowing for example, presents challenges for adequate and least-cost resource planning. The deployment of renewable generation assets is anticipated to increase due to various drivers, such as declining costs, favorable government policies, and increasing procurement by corporations and consumers. High levels of renewable penetration are anticipated to pose flexibility, reliability, and cost challenges to the electrical system. The development and implementation of new features into performance modeling software, such as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) System Advisor Model (SAM), is one way to help think through these challenges and develop appropriate strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2003

Through BAL Quasars Brightly

We report on an observation of the broad absorption line (BAL) quasar PG 1115+080 performed with the XMM-Newton observatory. Spectral analysis reveals the second case of a relativistic X-ray-absorbing outflow in a BAL quasar. The first case was revealed in a recent observation of APM 08279+5255 with the Chandra X-Ray Observatory. As in the case of APM 08279+5255, the observed flux of PG 1115+080 is greatly magnified by gravitational lensing. The relatively high redshift (z=1.72) of the quasar places the redshifted energies of resonant absorption features in a sensitive portion of the XMM- Newton spectral response. The spectrum indicates the presence of complex low-energy absorption in the 0.2-0.6 keV observed energy band and high-energy absorption in the 2-5 keV observed energy band. The high-energy absorption is best modeled by two Gaussian absorption lines with rest-frame energies of 7.4 and 9.5 keV. Assuming that these two lines axe produced by resonant absorption due to Fe XXV, we infer that the X-ray absorbers are outflowing with velocities of approx. 0.10c and approx. 0.34c respectively. We have detected significant variability of the energies and widths of the X-ray BALs in PG 1115+080 and APM 08279+5255 over timescales of 19 and 1.8 weeks (proper time), respectively. The BAL variability observed from APM 08279+5255 supports our earlier conclusion that these absorbers are most likely launched at relatively small radii of less than 10(exp 16)(Mbh/M8)(sup 1/2) cm. A comparison of the ionization properties and column densities of the low-energy and high-energy absorbers indicates that these absorbers are likely distinct; however, higher spectral resolution is needed to confirm this result. Finally, we comment on prospects for constraining the kinematic and ionization properties of these X-ray BALs with the next generation of X-ray observatories.

Chartas, George↗

NASA NTRS2011

Photocatalytic Active Radiation Measurements and Use

Photocatalytic materials are being used to purify air, to kill microbes, and to keep surfaces clean. A wide variety of materials are being developed, many of which have different abilities to absorb various wavelengths of light. Material variability, combined with both spectral illumination intensity and spectral distribution variability, will produce a wide range of performance results. The proposed technology estimates photocatalytic active radiation (PcAR), a unit of radiation that normalizes the amount of light based on its spectral distribution and on the ability of the material to absorb that radiation. Photocatalytic reactions depend upon the number of electron-hole pairs generated at the photocatalytic surface. The number of electron-hole pairs produced depends on the number of photons per unit area per second striking the surface that can be absorbed and whose energy exceeds the bandgap of the photocatalytic material. A convenient parameter to describe the number of useful photons is the number of moles of photons striking the surface per unit area per second. The unit of micro-einsteins (or micromoles) of photons per m2 per sec is commonly used for photochemical and photoelectric-like phenomena. This type of parameter is used in photochemistry, such as in the conversion of light energy for photosynthesis. Photosynthetic response correlates with the number of photons rather than by energy because, in this photochemical process, each molecule is activated by the absorption of one photon. In photosynthesis, the number of photons absorbed in the 400 700 nm spectral range is estimated and is referred to as photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). PAR is defined in terms of the photosynthetic photon flux density measured in micro-einsteins of photons per m2 per sec. PcAR is an equivalent, similarly modeled parameter that has been defined for the photocatalytic processes. Two methods to measure the PcAR level are being proposed. In the first method, a calibrated spectrometer with a cosine receptor is used to measure the spectral irradiance. This measurement, in conjunction with the photocatalytic response as a function of wavelength, is used to estimate the PcAR. The photocatalytic response function is determined by measuring photocatalytic reactivity as a function of wavelength. In the second method, simple shaped photocatalytic response functions can be simulated with a broad-band detector with a cosine receptor appropriately filtered to represent the spectral response of the photocatalytic material. This second method can be less expensive than using a calibrated spectrometer.

Davis, Bruce A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

SAM Plug-in Development (Phase I Final Report)

The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) has created an extensive set of advanced modeling and simulation tools for nuclear engineering analysis. The advanced capabilities of these newer analysis codes require more in-depth training, skills, and knowledge in order to effectively utilize them for the design, analysis, and licensing of advanced nuclear systems and experiments. A high learning curve for inexperienced users may deter organizations from incorporating these tools into their internal processes. This project involved development of a plug-in to the Symbolic Nuclear Analysis Package (SNAP) for the System Analysis Module (SAM) tool. SAM is an advanced system analysis tool for reactor transient analyses being developed at Argonne National Laboratory under the U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. SAM utilizes an object-oriented application framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library (libMesh) and linear and non-linear solvers (PETSc), to leverage modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. SNAP provides a highly flexible framework for creating, modifying and documenting input for engineering analysis codes such as SAM as well as extensive functionality for submitting, monitoring, and interacting with the codes through an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI). The common user interface provided by SNAP minimizes the learning curve for engineers starting with a new analysis code and provides an intuitive framework for transitioning between different analysis codes. SNAP provides a powerful but intuitive interface to facilitate access to advanced modeling and simulation tools for inexperienced users. Unlike many “form based” GUI’s, SNAP maps each engineering code’s component input to an internal database which manages all component input parameters along with component interconnections. This level of abstraction permits SNAP to support several advanced capabilities such as renodalization, model validation and consistency checks, embedded documentation, model notebook generation, data ownership and reviewer tracking, and variable assignment for inputs to name a few. SNAP includes a built-in Python interpreter and is interfaced to several commercial and open source packages including CPython, MATLAB/OCTAVE, Microsoft Office, Open Office, and SANDIA’s DAKOTA package which provides Uncertainty Quantification analysis through the SNAP plug-ins. Phase I of this project involved development a fully functional basic SAM plug-in to SNAP. This plug-in provides the ability to import existing models, graphically construct, edit and submit models using SNAP’s extensive functionality.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of a Test-Bed for Testing and Refining EarthEn’s Supercritical CO 2 Based Energy Storage System

EarthEn’s energy storage concept leverages supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) as a working fluid and relies on compact, high-performance components operating at elevated pressures and temperatures. To accelerate component development and reduce technical risk prior to larger-scale demonstrations, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) developed a 100 kW-scale sCO 2 test-bed under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with EarthEn (CRADA NO. NFE-24-10050). The objective of the work was to design and construct a flexible experimental facility capable of reproducing key thermodynamic state points and heat-transfer conditions relevant to EarthEn’s thermal energy storage (TES) cycle, with particular emphasis on enabling development and evaluation of next-generation heat exchangers and TES concepts. The test-bed consists of a closed-loop sCO 2 circulation system housed within an open-topped enclosure. In its as-installed configuration, dense-phase sCO 2 is recirculated through a printed circuit recuperator, an electrically heated section, a throttling device used to simulate turbine expansion, and a water-cooled printed circuit heat exchanger that rejects heat to the building chilled-water system before returning to the pump. The pump is driven by a variable frequency drive, enabling controlled adjustment of flow and operating point. A comprehensive instrumentation suite was integrated to support both safe operation and high-quality data collection. Installed sensors include Coriolis flow meters for sCO 2 flow rate and density, resistance temperature detectors and thermocouples distributed throughout the loop (including the heated section and key heat exchanger ports), and pressure transducers for absolute and differential pressure measurements. The facility was designed to support high-pressure (19 MPa nominal) and high-temperature (575°C nominal) operation with credited overpressure protection provided by a rupture disk. Nominal operating conditions were selected to support 100 kW-class testing while maintaining flexibility for non-heated and heated shakedown, control development, and future integration of advanced TES test sections. In parallel with facility development, a system-level thermal-hydraulic model was created using Modelica-based tools to support component sizing, anticipate performance over targeted test conditions, and establish a framework for future model calibration against experimental data. At the conclusion of the project performance period, the facility was in final assembly, and the pressure boundary was nearly completed. However, several practical challenges associated with high-pressure/high-temperature systems and specialized component procurement impacted schedule and prevented initial pump-driven operation and full commissioning within the available resources. This report documents the as-built design, operating capabilities, and instrumentation, and it summarizes key lessons learned related to heater fabrication and testing, first-of-a-kind assembly factors, specialty flange supply constraints, and fill pump corrective actions. Finally, it outlines a phased plan for future commissioning and experimental campaigns, including control and instrumentation shakedown, heater characterization, model calibration, and testing at state points representative of EarthEn’s TES cycle.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Partially averaged Navier-Stokes closure modeling for variable-density turbulent flow

We report this work extends the framework of the partially averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS) equations to variable-density flow, i.e., multimaterial and/or compressible mixing problems with density variations and production of turbulence kinetic energy by both shear and buoyancy mechanisms. The proposed methodology is utilized to derive the PANS BHR-LEVM closure. This includes a priori testing to analyze and develop guidelines toward the efficient selection of the parameters controlling the physical resolution and, consequently, the range of resolved scales of PANS. Two archetypal test-cases involving transient turbulence, hydrodynamic instabilities, and coherent structures are used to illustrate the accuracy and potential of the method: the Taylor-Green vortex at Reynolds number Re = 3000, and the Rayleigh-Taylor flow at Atwood number 0.5 and (Re) max ≈ 500. These representative problems, for which turbulence is generated by shear and buoyancy processes, constitute the initial validation space of the new model, and their results are comprehensively discussed in two subsequent studies. The computations indicate that PANS can accurately predict the selected flow problems, resolving only a fraction of the scales of large-eddy simulation and direct numerical simulation strategies. The results also reiterate that the physical resolution of the PANS model must guarantee that the key instabilities and coherent structures of the flow are resolved. The remaining scales can be modeled through an adequate turbulence scale-dependent closure.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of residual gas fraction estimation methods for cycle-to-cycle combustion variability analysis and modeling

Cycle-to-cycle combustion variability in spark-ignition engines during normal operation is mainly caused by random perturbations of the in-cylinder conditions such as the flow velocity field, homogeneity of the air-fuel distribution, spark energy discharge, and turbulence intensity of the flame front. Such perturbations translate into the variability of the energy released observed at the end of the combustion process. During normal operating conditions, the cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV) of the energy release behaves as random uncorrelated noise. However, during diluted combustion, in either the form of exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) or excess air (lean operation), the CCV tends to increase as dilution increases. Moreover, when the ignition limit is reached at high dilution levels, the combustion CCV is exacerbated by sporadic occurrences of incomplete combustion events, and the uncorrelation assumption no longer holds. The low or null energy released by partial burns and misfires has an impact on the following combustion event due to the residual gas that carries burned and unburned gases, which contributes to the deterministic coupling between engine cycles. Many residual gas fraction estimation methods, however, only address the nominal case where complete combustion occurs and combustion events are uncorrelated. Here we evaluate the efficacy of such methods on capturing the effects of partial burns and misfires on the residual gas estimate for high-EGR operation. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed based on their ability to generate cycle-to-cycle estimates. Finally, a comparison between the different estimation techniques is presented based on their usefulness for control-oriented modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1981

The generation mechanism for magnetosheath lion roars

The origin of lion roars, intense electromagnetic whistler-mode waves which occur throughout the magnetosheath, is investigated based on particle and field data obtained on the ISEE satellites. Analysis of the measured magnetic fields, plasma densities and plasma wave intensities during periods of lion roar emission reveals the lion roar bursts to be correlated with decreases in magnetic field intensity, while the plasma density exhibits a strong anticorrelation with the magnetic field variability during the bursts and the total plasma pressure remains essentially constant. Results indicate that the waves can originate by the cyclotron resonant instability with anisotropic magnetosheath electrons whenever the magnetic energy per particle falls to values comparable with the electron thermal energy. Variations in the magnetic energy appear to be associated with the hydromagnetic mirror instability which in turn is excited by a pressure anisotropy in the magnetosheath ion population.

Thorne, R. M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Key Requirements for 450 GW of Renewable Capacity in India by 2030

In this policy brief, we assess the prerequisites for India to achieve 450 GW of solar and wind cumulative installed capacity by 2030. We examine requirements such as availability of land, new transmission buildout, financing and pace of deployment, as well as the impact on grid reliability and cost of generation. We also examine the impact of policies promoting domestic manufacturing. Deploying 307 GW of solar and 142 GW of wind capacity would use only about 1.25% of land that is categorized as barren or waste, which is equivalent to about 0.22% of the total land area in India. Because of the good solar resource across large swaths of India, the solar energy buildout—and thus the land use—potentially can be spread out. India would need about 280 GW of new interstate transmission capacity by 2030, a little over double the transmission expansion that has already been planned through 2025. However, most of the new transmission buildout is driven by the near doubling of electricity demand between 2020 and 2030. The total investment needed (in generation and storage resources) to realize this target is around USD 26.5 billion annually, which is 20% lower than the annual investment in India’s power sector across all generation resources between 2015 and 2019. We estimate that using domestically manufactured panels instead of imported panels may increase solar PPA prices by about 10%–15% in the medium term, but solar power would still be a cost-effective way to meet growing demand instead of building new fossil fuel-based power plants, because the price of electricity from solar plants has fallen below the variable cost of most existing coal units. To reach this target, India would need to build about 35–40 GW of solar and wind capacity every year in this decade. India’s power sector achieved a pace of capacity addition of 22 GW per year in the previous decade (including thermal and renewable). Policy and regulatory measures would be needed to increase the pace of deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗