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DOE OSTI2020

Robust Distribution System Load Restoration With Time-Dependent Cold Load Pickup

Service restoration is one of the critical functions to enable the future self-healing distribution system. To restore the distribution system in a timely and reliable manner, the realistic system operating conditions need to be accurately characterized. Here, two main factors that have great impacts on distribution system restoration (DSR) in practice are investigated. First, cold load pickup (CLPU), generally caused by thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), is a common phenomenon after an outage and shaped by the outage duration. However, the time-dependent behaviors of CLPU are rarely considered in literature. In this paper, the operating state evolution of TCLs after an outage is analyzed to characterize time-dependent CLPU. And the time-dependent CLPU is analytically embedded in DSR to accurately represent the actual behaviors of the restored loads. Second, it is difficult to predict loads that fluctuate during DSR due to the lack of real-time measurement data. Accordingly, a robust DSR based on the information gap decision theory (IGDT) is proposed to address this challenge, fully considering the uncertainty of CLPU. The proposed models are tested in IEEE 13-node and 123-node test feeders. Simulation results demonstrate that the time-dependent CLPU model and the uncertainty modeling of CLPU can accurately capture the actual behaviors of loads with TCLs after an outage, which greatly improves DSR decisions in practice.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic multiscale modeling for quantifying statistical and model errors with application to composite materials

This paper provides a coherent and efficient computational framework for stochastic multiscale analysis of material systems in the presence of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors. Uncertainty in those model parameters that are not deduced as upscaled quantities is attributed to an uncertainty “germ”. While such parameters can appear at any scale, they are predominant at the finest analysis scale. Additional uncertainties stemming from statistical estimation, attributed to lack of data and model error, are associated with each submodel contributing to the multiscale system. Here, a robust and efficient framework based on a generalized extended polynomial chaos expansion (gEPCE) is proposed to simultaneously propagate all these uncertainties in order to provide a probabilistic representation of specific quantities of interest (QoI). We characterize the full probability distribution of the QoI and the uncertainty in the failure probability pertaining to its tails. By combining gEPCE with kernel density estimation (KDE) and directional derivatives, we construct sensitivity measures that connect these statistical metrics of QoI to the various sources of uncertainty to assess their individual and combined impacts. An illustrative problem featuring three-point bending of a composite beam is investigated to demonstrate the presented approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2018

Quantification of Dynamic Model Validation Metrics Using Uncertainty Propagation from Requirements

The Space Launch System, NASA's new large launch vehicle for long range space exploration, is presently in the final design and construction phases, with the first launch scheduled for 2019. A dynamic model of the system has been created and is critical for calculation of interface loads and natural frequencies and mode shapes for guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). Because of the program and schedule constraints, a single modal test of the SLS will be performed while bolted down to the Mobile Launch Pad just before the first launch. A Monte Carlo and optimization scheme will be performed to create thousands of possible models based on given dispersions in model properties and to determine which model best fits the natural frequencies and mode shapes from modal test. However, the question still remains as to whether this model is acceptable for the loads and GNC requirements. An uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP and UQ) technique to develop a quantitative set of validation metrics that is based on the flight requirements has therefore been developed and is discussed in this paper. There has been considerable research on UQ and UP and validation in the literature, but very little on propagating the uncertainties from requirements, so most validation metrics are "rules-of-thumb;" this research seeks to come up with more reason-based metrics. One of the main assumptions used to achieve this task is that the uncertainty in the modeling of the fixed boundary condition is accurate, so therefore that same uncertainty can be used in propagating the fixed-test configuration to the free-free actual configuration. The second main technique applied here is the usage of the limit-state formulation to quantify the final probabilistic parameters and to compare them with the requirements. These techniques are explored with a simple lumped spring-mass system and a simplified SLS model. When completed, it is anticipated that this requirements-based validation metric will provide a quantified confidence and probability of success for the final SLS dynamics model, which will be critical for a successful launch program, and can be applied in the many other industries where an accurate dynamic model is required.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Inertial Model Attitude Sensor Calibration and Application with a Recommended New Calibration Method

Statistical tools, previously developed for nonlinear least-squares estimation of multivariate sensor calibration parameters and the associated calibration uncertainty analysis, have been applied to single- and multiple-axis inertial model attitude sensors used in wind tunnel testing to measure angle of attack and roll angle. The analysis provides confidence and prediction intervals of calibrated sensor measurement uncertainty as functions of applied input pitch and roll angles. A comparative performance study of various experimental designs for inertial sensor calibration is presented along with corroborating experimental data. The importance of replicated calibrations over extended time periods has been emphasized; replication provides independent estimates of calibration precision and bias uncertainties, statistical tests for calibration or modeling bias uncertainty, and statistical tests for sensor parameter drift over time. A set of recommendations for a new standardized model attitude sensor calibration method and usage procedures is included. The statistical information provided by these procedures is necessary for the uncertainty analysis of aerospace test results now required by users of industrial wind tunnel test facilities.

Tripp, John S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian uncertainty quantification of tristructural isotropic particle fuel silver release: Decomposing model inadequacy plus experimental noise and parametric uncertainties

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel is one of the most promising fuel concepts enabling high temperature and high burnup reactor operation. One dominant source of radioactivity released from the TRISO particles is silver (Ag), which is subject to a high release fraction and long decay life compared to other fission products. Previous modeling efforts using the fuel performance code BISON indicated nonnegligible uncertainties in modeling the diffusion process of fission products in TRISO compared to the Advanced Gas Reactor experiments. The overall uncertainties observed when modeling the fission product diffusion can result from uncertainties in model parameters, noisy experimental measurements, and deficiencies in the developed models. The three types of underlying uncertainties have not yet been properly quantified in open literature. Here, this paper presents the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) using massively parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers. The uncertainties due to model parameters, model inadequacy, and experimental measurement noise are quantified, with the σ term used to represent the sum of the model inadequacy and measurement noise uncertainties. It is worth noting that this is the first time the σ term is inferred for nuclear fuel experiments, as compared to using prescribed values for uncertainty quantification in previous work. The parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers efficiently infer the model parameters and the σ term, giving insight into physical parameters like diffusion coefficients and the combined model discrepancy and measurement noise. A subsequent forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) is also performed based on the calibration results to generate more accurate predictions of the Ag release. The model inadequacy plus experimental noise is the most dominant source of uncertainty compared to the parametric uncertainty. All the UQ analyses presented in this work are based on the second series of the irradiation experiments in the Advanced Gas Reactor program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model-Based Sequential Design of Experiments for Pilot Testing of Novel Water-Lean CO2 Capture Solvent

Poster for the 2024 Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Meeting. It summarizes work done on process modeling and uncertainty quantification in preparation for the test campaign at the National Carbon Capture Center for a general audience. The poster includes sections detailing background on the EEMPA solvent, sequential design of experiments, process modeling (including results from the model), uncertainty quantification, and the goals of the test campaign.

Hedrick, Katherine↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cosmic Shear

We present legacy cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints using six years of Dark Energy Survey imaging data. From these data, we study ~140 million galaxies (8.29 galaxies/arcmin$^2$) that are 50% complete at i=24.0 and extend beyond z=1.2. We divide the galaxies into four redshift bins, and obtain cosmic shear measurement with a signal-to-noise of 83, a factor of 2 higher than the Year 3 analysis. We model the uncertainties due to shear and redshift calibrations, and discard measurements on small angular scales to mitigate baryon feedback and other small-scale uncertainties. We consider two fiducial models to account for the intrinsic alignment (IA) of the galaxies. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the $Λ$CDM model and find $S_8 \equiv σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}=0.798^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ (marginalized mean with 68% CL) when using the non-linear alignment model (NLA) and $S_{8} = 0.783^{+0.019}_{-0.015}$ with the tidal alignment and tidal torque model (TATT), providing 1.8% and 2.5% uncertainty on $S_8$. Compared to constraints from the cosmic microwave background from Planck 2018, ACT DR6 and SPT-3G DR1, we find consistency in the full parameter space at 1.1$σ$ (1.7$σ$) and in $S_8$ at 2.0$σ$ (2.3$σ$) for NLA (TATT). The result using the NLA model is preferred according to the Bayesian evidence. We find that the model choice for IA and baryon feedback can impact the value of our $S_8$ constraint up to $1σ$. For our fiducial model choices, the resultant uncertainties in $S_8$ are primarily degraded by the removal of scales, as well as the marginalization over the IA parameters. We demonstrate that our result is internally consistent and robust to different choices in calibrating the data, owing to methodological improvements in shear and redshift measurement, laying the foundation for next-generation cosmic shear programs.

Abbott, T. M.C. [Cerro-Tololo InterAmerican Obs.]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying CanESM5 and EAMv1 sensitivities to Mt. Pinatubo volcanic forcing for the CMIP6 historical experiment

Large volcanic eruptions reaching the stratosphere have caused marked perturbations to the global climate including cooling at the Earth's surface, changes in large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns and marked temporary reductions in global ocean heat content. Many studies have investigated these effects using climate models; however, uncertainties remain in the modelled response to these eruptions. This is due in part to the diversity of forcing datasets that are used to prescribe the distribution of stratospheric aerosols resulting from these volcanic eruptions, as well as uncertainties in optical property derivations from these datasets. To improve this situation for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a two-step process was undertaken. First, a combined stratospheric aerosol dataset, the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC; 1979–2016), was constructed. Next, GloSSAC, along with information from ice cores and Sun photometers, was used to generate aerosol distributions, characteristics and optical properties to construct a more consistent stratospheric aerosol forcing dataset for models participating in CMIP6. This “version 3” of the stratospheric aerosol forcing has been endorsed for use in all contributing CMIP6 simulations. Recent updates to the underlying GloSSAC from version 1 to version 1.1 affected the 1991–1994 period and necessitated an update to the stratospheric aerosol forcing from version 3 to version 4. As version 3 remains the official CMIP6 input, quantification of the impact on radiative forcing and climate is both relevant and timely for interpreting results from experiments such as the CMIP6 historical simulations. This study uses two models, the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1), to estimate the difference in instantaneous radiative forcing in simulated post-Pinatubo climate response when using version 4 instead of version 3. Differences in temperature, precipitation and radiative forcings are generally found to be small compared to internal variability. An exception to this is differences in monthly temperature anomalies near 24 km altitude in the tropics, which can be as large as 3 °C following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2003

Structured Uncertainty Bound Determination From Data for Control and Performance Validation

This report attempts to document the broad scope of issues that must be satisfactorily resolved before one can expect to methodically obtain, with a reasonable confidence, a near-optimal robust closed loop performance in physical applications. These include elements of signal processing, noise identification, system identification, model validation, and uncertainty modeling. Based on a recently developed methodology involving a parameterization of all model validating uncertainty sets for a given linear fractional transformation (LFT) structure and noise allowance, a new software, Uncertainty Bound Identification (UBID) toolbox, which conveniently executes model validation tests and determine uncertainty bounds from data, has been designed and is currently available. This toolbox also serves to benchmark the current state-of-the-art in uncertainty bound determination and in turn facilitate benchmarking of robust control technology. To help clarify the methodology and use of the new software, two tutorial examples are provided. The first involves the uncertainty characterization of a flexible structure dynamics, and the second example involves a closed loop performance validation of a ducted fan based on an uncertainty bound from data. These examples, along with other simulation and experimental results, also help describe the many factors and assumptions that determine the degree of success in applying robust control theory to practical problems.

Lim, Kyong B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Atomic Data for Modeling Astrophysical Charge Exchange Plasmas

Relevant uncertainties of theoretical atomic data are vital to determining the accuracy of plasma diagnostics in a number of areas, including, in particular, the astrophysical study. We present a new calculation of the uncertainties on the present theoretical ion-impact charge exchange atomic data and X-ray spectra, based on a set of comparisons with the existing laboratory data obtained in historical merged-beam, cold-target recoil-ion momentum spectroscopy, and electron beam ion traps experiments. The average systematic uncertainties are found to be 35–88% on the total cross sections, and 57–75% on the characteristic line ratios. The model deviation increases as the collision energy decreases. The errors on total cross sections further induce a significant uncertainty to the calculation of ionization balance for low-temperature collisional plasmas. Substantial improvements of the atomic database and dedicated laboratory measurements are needed to obtain the current models, ready for the X-ray spectra from the next X-ray spectroscopic mission.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification of mass models using ensemble Bayesian model averaging

Developments in the description of the masses of atomic nuclei have led to various nuclear mass models that provide predictions for masses across the whole chart of nuclides. These mass models play an important role in understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in the rapid neutron capture ( r ) process. However, it is still a challenging task to estimate the size of uncertainty associated with the predictions of each mass model. In this work, a method called ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) is introduced to quantify the uncertainty of one-neutron separation energies (S 1 n ) which are directly relevant in the calculations of r -process observables. Here, this Bayesian method provides a natural way to perform model averaging, selection, and uncertainty quantification, by combining the mass models as a mixture of normal distributions whose parameters are optimized against the experimental data, employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo method using the no-u-turn sampler. The EBMA model optimized with all the experimental S 1 n from the AME2003 nuclides are shown to provide reliable uncertainty estimates when tested with the new data in the AME2020.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural Network Prediction of Strong Lensing Systems with Domain Adaptation and Uncertainty Quantification

Modeling strong gravitational lenses is computationally expensive for the complex data from modern and next-generation cosmic surveys. Deep learning has emerged as a promising approach for finding lenses and predicting lensing parameters, such as the Einstein radius. Mean-variance Estimators (MVEs) are a common approach for obtaining aleatoric (data) uncertainties from a neural network prediction. However, neural networks have not been demonstrated to perform well on out-of-domain target data successfully - e.g., when trained on simulated data and applied to real, observational data. In this work, we perform the first study of the efficacy of MVEs in combination with unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) on strong lensing data. The source domain data is noiseless, and the target domain data has noise mimicking modern cosmology surveys. We find that adding UDA to MVE increases the accuracy on the target data by a factor of about two over an MVE model without UDA. Including UDA also permits much more well-calibrated aleatoric uncertainty predictions. Advancements in this approach may enable future applications of MVE models to real observational data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating alternative ebullition models for predicting peatland methane emission and its pathways via data–model fusion

Abstract. Understanding the dynamics of peatland methane (CH4) emissions and quantifying sources of uncertainty in estimating peatland CH4 emissions are critical for mitigating climate change. The relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways through ebullition, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion, together with their different transport rates and vulnerability to oxidation, determine the quantity of CH4 to be oxidized before leaving the soil. Notwithstanding their importance, the relative contributions of the emission pathways are highly uncertain. In particular, the ebullition process is more uncertain and can lead to large uncertainties in modeled CH4 emissions. To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, we evaluated two model structures: (1) the ebullition bubble growth volume threshold approach (EBG) and (2) the modified ebullition concentration threshold approach (ECT) using CH4 flux and concentration data collected in a peatland in northern Minnesota, USA. When model parameters were constrained using observed CH4 fluxes, the CH4 emissions simulated by the EBG approach (RMSE = 0.53) had a better agreement with observations than the ECT approach (RMSE = 0.61). Further, the EBG approach simulated a smaller contribution from ebullition but more frequent ebullition events than the ECT approach. The EBG approach yielded greatly improved simulations of pore water CH4 concentrations, especially in the deep soil layers, compared to the ECT approach. When constraining the EBG model with both CH4 flux and concentration data in model–data fusion, uncertainty of the modeled CH4 concentration profiles was reduced by 78 % to 86 % in comparison to constraints based on CH4 flux data alone. The improved model capability was attributed to the well-constrained parameters regulating the CH4 production and emission pathways. Our results suggest that the EBG modeling approach better characterizes CH4 emission and underlying mechanisms. Moreover, to achieve the best model results both CH4 flux and concentration data are required to constrain model parameterization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scalable statistical inference of photometric redshift via data subsampling

Handling big data has largely been a major bottleneck in traditional statistical models. Consequently, when accurate point prediction is the primary target, machine learning models are often preferred over their statistical counterparts for bigger problems. But full probabilistic statistical models often outperform other models in quantifying uncertainties associated with model predictions. We develop a data-driven statistical modeling framework that combines the uncertainties from an ensemble of statistical models learned on smaller subsets of data carefully chosen to account for imbalances in the input space. We demonstrate this method on a photometric redshift estimation problem in cosmology, which seeks to infer a distribution of the redshift—the stretching effect in observing the light of far-away galaxies—given multivariate color information observed for an object in the sky. Our proposed method performs balanced partitioning, graph-based data subsampling across the partitions, and training of an ensemble of Gaussian process models.

data subsampling↗

NASA NTRS2000

Implications of Simulation Conceptual Model Development for Simulation Management and Uncertainty Assessment

A simulation conceptual model is a simulation developers way of translating modeling requirements (i. e., what is to be represented by the simulation or its modification) into a detailed design framework (i. e., how it is to be done), from which the software, hardware, networks (in the case of distributed simulation), and systems/equipment that will make up the simulation can be built or modified. A conceptual model is the collection of information which describes a simulation developers concept about the simulation and its pieces. That information consists of assumptions, algorithms, characteristics, relationships, and data. Taken together, these describe how the simulation developer understands what is to be represented by the simulation (entities, actions, tasks, processes, interactions, etc.) and how that representation will satisfy the requirements to which the simulation responds. Thus the conceptual model is the basis for judgment about simulation fidelity and validity for any condition that is not specifically tested. The more perspicuous and precise the conceptual model, the more likely it is that the simulation development will both fully satisfy requirements and allow demonstration that the requirements are satisfied (i. e., validation). Methods used in simulation conceptual model development have significant implications for simulation management and for assessment of simulation uncertainty. This paper suggests how to develop and document a simulation conceptual model so that the simulation fidelity and validity can be most effectively determined. These ideas for conceptual model development apply to all simulation varieties. The paper relates these ideas to uncertainty assessments as they relate to simulation fidelity and validity. The paper also explores implications for simulation management from conceptual model development methods, especially relative to reuse of simulation components.

Pace, Dale K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-fidelity equations of state and transport coefficient datasets for pulsed-power applications

Reliably simulating experiments relevant to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) requires a detailed description of material properties across a wide range of conditions. Such properties include the equations of state, charged-particle transport coefficients, and optical properties like the opacity. Together, these properties make up the material models used in radiation-magnetohydrodynamic simulations of nuclear fusion experiments. Many of these models do not incorporate uncertainties in the data used to produce them. It is unknown whether these uncertainties significantly impact the interpretation of simulation results and diagnostics. The purpose of this work is to quantify how such uncertainties impact simulations of pulsed-power experiments. We accomplished this task by first assessing discrepancies between approaches used to generate the data. This included bringing together members of the high-energy-density community spanning the three NNSA laboratories and multiple universities. Then, using these data, we developed a general framework that systematically incorporates physical uncertainties within the material models suitable for uncertainty quantification analyses. The framework utilizes machine learning, Bayesian inference, and incorporates multi-fidelity datasets. We demonstrated the framework by quantifying the impact that material model uncertainties have on simulations of pulsed-power experiments underway on Z at Sandia National Laboratories. As a result of this work, we discovered that modest uncertainties in material models (roughly 20%) correspond to significant uncertainties in the outputs from simulations. Our framework has enabled rapid construction of material models through an automated procedure and allows for the generation of material models of interest to the NNSA.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

GMRES with embedded ensemble propagation for the efficient solution of parametric linear systems in uncertainty quantification of computational models

In a previous work, embedded ensemble propagation was proposed to improve the efficiency of sampling-based uncertainty quantification methods of computational models on emerging computational architectures. It consists of simultaneously evaluating the model for a subset of samples together, instead of evaluating them individually. A first approach introduced to solve parametric linear systems with ensemble propagation is ensemble reduction. In Krylov methods for example, this reduction consists in coupling the samples together using an inner product that sums the sample contributions. Ensemble reduction has the advantages of being able to use optimized implementations of BLAS functions and having a stopping criterion which involves only one scalar. However, the reduction potentially decreases the rate of convergence due to the gathering of the spectra of the samples. In this paper, we investigate a second approach: ensemble propagation without ensemble reduction in the case of GMRES. This second approach solves each sample simultaneously but independently to improve the convergence compared to ensemble reduction. This raises two new issues which are solved in this paper: the fact that optimized implementations of BLAS functions cannot be used anymore and that ensemble divergence, whereby individual samples within an ensemble must follow different code execution paths, can occur. We tackle those issues by implementing a high-performing ensemble GEMV and by using masks. The proposed ensemble GEMV leads to a similar cost per GMRES iteration for both approaches, i.e. with and without reduction. For illustration, we study the performances of the new linear solver in the context of a mesh tying problem. Furthermore, this example demonstrates improved ensemble propagation speed-up without reduction.

BLAS↗