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At least 883 records · Page 49

Uncertainty Quantification for Polynomial Systems via Bernstein Expansions

This paper presents a unifying framework to uncertainty quantification for systems having polynomial response metrics that depend on both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The approach proposed, which is based on the Bernstein expansions of polynomials, enables bounding the range of moments and failure probabilities of response metrics as well as finding supersets of the extreme epistemic realizations where the limits of such ranges occur. These bounds and supersets, whose analytical structure renders them free of approximation error, can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort. Furthermore, this framework enables determining the importance of particular uncertain parameters according to the extent to which they affect the first two moments of response metrics and failure probabilities. This analysis enables determining the parameters that should be considered uncertain as well as those that can be assumed to be constants without incurring significant error. The analytical nature of the approach eliminates the numerical error that characterizes the sampling-based techniques commonly used to propagate aleatory uncertainties as well as the possibility of under predicting the range of the statistic of interest that may result from searching for the best- and worstcase epistemic values via nonlinear optimization or sampling.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Hemispheric Differences in Tropical Lower Stratospheric Transport and Tracers Annual Cycle

Transport of long-lived tracers (such as O, CO, and N O) in the lower stratosphere largely determines the composition of the entire stratosphere. Stratospheric transport includes the mean residual circulation (with air rising in the tropics and sinking in the polar and middle latitudes), plus two-way isentropic (quasi-horizontal) mixing by eddies. However, the relative importance of two transport components remains uncertain. Previous studies quantified the relative role of these processes based on tropics-wide average characteristics under common assumption of well-mixed tropics. However, multiple instruments provide us with evidence that show significant differences in the seasonal cycle of ozone between the Northern (0-20N) and Southern (0-20S) tropical (NT and ST respectively) lower stratosphere. In this study we investigate these differences in tracer seasonality and quantify transport processes affecting tracers annual cycle amplitude using simulations from Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and compare them to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite. We detect the observed contrast between the ST and NT in GEOSCCM and WACCM: annual cycle in ozone and other chemical tracers is larger in the NT than in the ST but opposite is true for the annual cycle in vertical advection. Ozone budgets in the models, analyzed based on the Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) framework, demonstrate a major role of quasi-horizontal mixing vertical advection in determining the NTST ozone distribution and behavior. Analysis of zonal variations in the NT and ST ozone annual cycles further suggests important role of North American and Asian Summer Monsoons (associated with strong isentropic mixing) on the lower stratospheric ozone in the NT. Furthermore, multi model comparison shows that most CCMs reproduce the observed characteristic of ozone annual cycle quite well. Thus, latitudinal variations within the tropics have to be considered in order to understand the balance between upwelling and quasi- horizontal mixing in the tropical lower stratosphere and the paradigm of well mixed tropics has to be reconsidered.

Chemistry-Climate Models↗

Patience is a virtue: A data-driven analysis of rooftop solar PV permitting timelines in the United States

© 2020 The Authors Local permitting can ensure the safe installation and operation of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. At the same time, burdensome local permitting processes and local variation in requirements may pose challenges to PV deployment. In this article, we explore new data on the durations between key steps in the PV permitting process in the United States. The data suggest that a typical customer can expect to wait around 25–100 days from permit application until an installed system passes inspection. Permit durations vary significantly across jurisdictions, due in part to differences in local permitting policies. However, permit durations vary as significantly within jurisdictions as across them, in part due to significant variation across installers, suggesting that installer strategies and practices play an important role in permitting timelines. Permit durations have declined over time, reflecting progress from permit streamlining policies and jurisdiction learning-by-doing, though durations have stabilized in recent years. The data suggest that typical PV customers still face long and uncertain permitting timelines in the United States.

O'Shaughnessy, E↗

Exploring Flood Predictability in Taiwan through Coupled Atmospheric–Hydrological and High-Performance Hydrodynamic Models

Effective flood simulation capabilities can tremendously support early warning and disaster prevention. To examine the applicability of a fully physics-based and high-performance flood simulation and forecasting modeling framework for a flood-prone region in Taiwan, we conduct a numerical experiment that couples the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, WRF-Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), and the Two-Dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) to perform integrated rainfall, streamflow, and flood simulations. Furthermore, we first use the coupled WRF and WRF-Hydro (WWH) to predict rainfall and streamflow and then drive TRITON with the predicted streamflow hydrographs to simulate flood depth and inundation area. With the refined spatial resolution and parameterization, this framework can better predict rainfall with reasonable spatial patterns. Although WWH could overestimate the amount of rainfall in some areas, the uncertain rainfall–streamflow predictions produce reasonable flood maps able to pinpoint regions at risk of flooding. In terms of model efficiency, the graphics processing unit–based computation can yield a speed-up factor as high as ∼13 compared to the central processing unit–based computation, promoting the efficacy of the coupled modeling framework in practical real-time flood forecasting.

Coupled models↗

Distribution Grid Impacts of Community Solar [Slides]

Community solar (CS) projects often face uncertain interconnection costs and fees associated with distribution grid infrastructure upgrades required to connect the project. These costs can determine the economic viability of a CS project, but they are difficult to assess. Cost uncertainty can discourage new projects and prevent communities from accessing the benefits of community solar projects. At the same time, CS deployment strategies hold potential to defer or avoid some distribution costs due to new loads. To mitigate CS interconnection costs, it is important to find least-cost combinations of distribution system infrastructure solutions (transformer upgrades, reconductoring, voltage regulators, storage), and to understand how location of CS projects within a feeder impact distribution grid upgrade costs. This study aims to quantify CS impacts on the distribution grid and provide policy and regulatory insights and CS deployment strategies to address them. It is the first analysis that has systematically studied the technical impacts of community solar projects on a wide range of distribution feeders using state-of-the-art optimization and power flow tools. The analysis employs Berkeley Lab’s novel Least-cost Optimal Distribution Grid Expansion (LODGE) model, a deterministic version of the REPAIR model, that optimally upgrades hundreds or even thousands of distribution circuits or feeders. This is the first application of the LODGE model. LODGE finds the least-cost portfolio of traditional distribution system upgrades to integrate CS in combination with alternative solutions, such as utility-owned storage and downsizing CS capacity. Working with a set of least-cost solutions per feeder allows us to benchmark, compare and find techno-economic trends in CS interconnection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models

Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO 2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr –1 (1pctCO2) from its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters which measure the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate, respectively. The results are based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models from the most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and compared with eight models from the fifth CMIP (CMIP5). The strength of the carbon–concentration feedback is of comparable magnitudes over land (mean ± standard deviation = 0.97 ± 0.40 PgC ppm –1 ) and ocean (0.79 ± 0.07 PgC ppm –1 ), while the carbon–climate feedback over land (–45.1 ± 50.6 PgC °C –1 ) is about 3 times larger than over ocean (–17.2 ± 5.0 PgC °C –1 ). The strength of both feedbacks is an order of magnitude more uncertain over land than over ocean as has been seen in existing studies. These values and their spread from 11 CMIP6 models have not changed significantly compared to CMIP5 models. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the 11 CMIP6 models considered here is 1.77 ± 0.37 °C EgC –1 and is similar to that found in CMIP5 models (1.63 ± 0.48 °C EgC –1 ) but with somewhat reduced model spread. The expressions for feedback parameters based on the fully and biogeochemically coupled configurations of the 1pctCO2 simulation are simplified when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters is used to gain insight into the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solar control of the upper atmosphere of Triton

If the upper atmosphere and ionosphere of Triton are controlled by precipitation of electrons from Neptune's magnetosphere as previously proposed, Triton could have the only ionosphere in the solar system not controlled by solar radiation. However, a new model of Triton's atmosphere, in which only solar radiation is present, predicts a large column of carbon atoms. With an assumed, but reasonable, rate of charge transfer between N2(+) and C, a peak C(+) abundance results that is close to the peak electron densities measured by Voyager in Triton's ionosphere. These results suggest that Triton's upper atmospheric chemistry may thus be solar-controlled. Measurement of key reaction rate constants, currently unknown or highly uncertain at Triton's low temperatures, would help to clarify the chemical and physical processes occurring in Triton's atmosphere.

Lyons, James R.↗

A Scanning laser-velocimeter technique for measuring two-dimensional wake-vortex velocity distributions

A rapid scanning two dimensional laser velocimeter (LV) has been used to measure simultaneously the vortex vertical and axial velocity distributions in the Langley Vortex Research Facility. This system utilized a two dimensional Bragg cell for removing flow direction ambiguity by translating the optical frequency for each velocity component, which was separated by band-pass filters. A rotational scan mechanism provided an incremental rapid scan to compensate for the large displacement of the vortex with time. The data were processed with a digital counter and an on-line minicomputer. Vaporized kerosene (0.5 micron to 5 micron particle sizes) was used for flow visualization and LV scattering centers. The overall measured mean-velocity uncertainity is less than 2 percent. These measurements were obtained from ensemble averaging of individual realizations.

Gartrell, L. R.↗

Tropical Cyclone Wind Shear-Relative Asymmetry in Reanalyses

Abstract While tropical cyclones (TCs) are axisymmetric vortices to the first order, they often exhibit noteworthy structural asymmetries. These often result from environmental vertical wind shear, which tilts the vortex and induces a wavenumber 1 pattern in the circulation and precipitation fields. Reanalyses and climate models have improved in representing the TC structure and climatology, but their relatively coarse resolution and dependence on parameterized physics cast doubt on their ability to capture the asymmetric TC structure. We perform the most comprehensive process-oriented assessment of TC asymmetry to date in reanalyses. Specifically, we analyze the composite shear-relative TC structure in ERA5 and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), which vary in their resolutions, physical parameterization suites, and data assimilation techniques. These structures are compared with aircraft reconnaissance radar observations. In agreement with the observations, the strongest tangential winds are usually found left-of-shear, while inner core rainfall, ascent, vortex tilt, and low-level inflow are favored directly downshear or in the downshear-left quadrant. Outer rainband convection generally peaks in the downshear-right quadrant. Thermodynamic asymmetries are also apparent, with anomalous low-level moisture right-of-shear, midlevel warmth in the upshear-right quadrant (uptilt), and cloud properties suggestive of a realistic precipitation life cycle from growth to fallout. We also decompose rainfall contributions from the convective parameterization and large-scale cloud schemes and highlight the roles of vorticity advection, buoyancy advection, and diabatic processes in driving asymmetric vertical motions in the inner core and outer rainband regions. Our results suggest that process-level studies of TC asymmetry and TC–wind shear interaction under future warming are viable using climate models. Significance Statement Asymmetries are common in tropical cyclones (TCs), influencing their intensity, track, and hazards. Vertical wind shear often plays a leading-order role in causing these asymmetries. It is uncertain how well asymmetric structures and processes are captured in reanalyses and global climate models (GCMs) with grid spacings of 0.25° and coarser. In this study, we first evaluate TC asymmetry in reanalyses, which have the benefit of being forced by observations. This helps to assess whether the resolutions associated with GCMs sufficiently capture asymmetric structures and processes and motivates upcoming work with free-running GCMs to study how TC asymmetry may change in a warming climate.

Carstens, Jacob D.↗

Monitoring and characterization of particle contamination in the pulse compression chamber of the OMEGA EP laser system

The laser-damage performance of optics is known to be negatively affected by microscale particle contamination induced by the operational environment. This work investigates the properties of particles accumulating in various locations near critical optics inside the OMEGA EP grating compressor chamber during quarterly operational periods over a 2-year duration. The particles found were characterized using optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. The analysis indicates significant concentrations of micrometer- to nanometer-scale particles inside the vacuum chamber, with higher values observed near the port leading to the OMEGA EP target chamber. The distribution of the chemical composition of these particles varies between collection periods. Although understanding of the mechanisms of particle generation and transport remains uncertain, the hypothesis is that this particle load represents a risk for contaminating the surfaces of high-value optics located inside the chamber, including the compression gratings and deformable mirrors, and therefore affecting their laser-damage resistance and overall operational lifetime.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Doing Science with eLISA: Astrophysics and Cosmology in the Millihertz Regime

This document introduces the exciting and fundamentally new science and astronomy that the European New Gravitational Wave Observatory (NGO) mission (derived from the previous LISA proposal) will deliver. The mission (which we will refer to by its informal name eLISA ) will survey for the first time the low-frequency gravitational wave band (about 0.1 mHz to 1 Hz), with sufficient sensitivity to detect interesting individual astrophysical sources out to z = 15. The measurements described here will address the basic scientific goals that have been captured in ESA s New Gravitational Wave Observatory Science Requirements Document ; they are presented here so that the wider scientific community can have access to them. The eLISA mission will discover and study a variety of cosmic events and systems with high sensitivity: coalescences of massive black holes binaries, brought together by galaxy mergers; mergers of earlier, less-massive black holes during the epoch of hierarchical galaxy and black-hole growth; stellar-mass black holes and compact stars in orbits just skimming the horizons of massive black holes in galactic nuclei of the present era; extremely compact white dwarf binaries in our Galaxy, a rich source of information about binary evolution and about future Type Ia supernovae; and possibly most interesting of all, the uncertain and unpredicted sources, for example relics of inflation and of the symmetry-breaking epoch directly after the Big Bang. eLISA s measurements will allow detailed studies of these signals with high signal-to-noise ratio, addressing most of the key scientific questions raised by ESA s Cosmic Vision programme in the areas of astrophysics and cosmology. They will also provide stringent tests of general relativity in the strong-field dynamical regime, which cannot be probed in any other way. This document not only describes the science but also gives an overview on the mission design and orbits. LISA s heritage in the eLISA design will be clear to those familiar with the previous proposal, as will its incorporation of key elements of hardware from the LISA Pathfinder mission, scheduled for launch by ESA in 2014. But eLISA is fundamentally a new mission, one that will pioneer the completely new science of low-frequency gravitational wave astronomy. 4 of

Amaro, Seoane, Pau↗

Clementine Observations of the Zodiacal Light and the Dust Content of the Inner Solar System

Using the Moon to occult the Sun, the Clementine spacecraft used its navigation cameras to map the inner zodiacal light at optical wavelengths over elongations of 3 approx. less than epsilon approx. less than 30 deg from the Sun. This surface brightness map is then used to infer the spatial distribution of interplanetary dust over heliocentric distances of about 10 solar radii to the orbit of Venus. The averaged ecliptic surface brightness of the zodiacal light falls off as Z(epsilon) is a member of epsilon(sup -2.45 +/- 0.05), which suggests that the dust cross-sectional density nominally falls off as sigma(r) is a member of r(sup - 1.45 +/- 0.05). The interplanetary dust also has an albedo of alpha approx. = 0.1 that is uncertain by a factor of approx. 2. Asymmetries of approx. 10% are seen in directions east-west and north-south of the Sun, and these may be due the giant planets' secular gravitational perturbations. We apply a simple model that attributes the zodiacal light as due to three dust populations having distinct inclination distributions, namely, dust from asteroids and Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) having characteristic inclinations of i approx. 7 deg, dust from Halley-type comets having i approx. 33 deg, and an isotropic cloud of dust from Oort Cloud comets. The best-fitting scenario indicates that asteroids + JFCs are the source of about 45% of the optical dust cross section seen in the ecliptic at 1 AU but that at least 89% of the dust cross section enclosed by a 1-AU-radius sphere is of a cometary origin. Each population's radial density variations can also deviate somewhat from the nominal sigma(r) is a member of r(sup -1.45). When these results are extrapolated out to the asteroid belt, we find an upper limit on the mass of the light-reflecting asteroidal dust that is equivalent to a 12-km asteroid, and a similar extrapolation of the isotropic dust cloud out to Oort Cloud distances yields a mass equivalent to a 30-km comet, although the latter mass is uncertain by orders of magnitude.

Hahn, Joseph M.↗

Improving E3SM Land Model Photosynthesis Parameterization via Satellite SIF, Machine Learning, and Surrogate Modeling

The parameterization of key photosynthesis parameters is one of the key uncertain sources in modeling ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offers a good proxy for GPP since it marks the actual process of photosynthesis; while machine learning (ML) provides a robust approach to model the GPP-SIF relationship. Here, we trained the boosted regressing tree (BRT) and the Random Forest ML models with Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite SIF data and in situ GPP observations from 49 eddy covariance towers. These trained ML GPP-SIF models were fed into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) to generate ELM-simulated global SIF estimates, which were then benchmarked against satellite SIF observations with a surrogate modeling approach. Our results indicated good modeling performance of the ML-based GPP-SIF relationship. The ELM model when fed with the ML GPP-SIF models also can well predict the spatial-temporal variations in SIF. We also found high model accuracy for the surrogate modeling. Model parameter sensitivity analysis suggested that the fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (flnr) is the most sensitive parameter to the SIF; other sensitive parameters include the Ball-Berry stomatal conductance slope (mbbopt) and the vcmax entropy (vcmaxse). The posterior uncertainty in simulated GPP was greatly reduced after benchmarking, and the model produced improved spatial patterns of mean GPP relative to FLUXCOM GPP. Our integrated approach provides a new avenue for improving land models and using remote-sensing SIF, which can be further improved in the future with more ground- and satellite-based observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A new adaptive control approach for aerospace vehicles with parameter uncertainties

A new stochastic adaptive control structure is developed for the problem of combined parameter estimation and control of aerospace vehicles with changing parameters. Parameter uncertainties are modeled as first-order Gauss-Markov processes, and are introduced to the system dynamics through a small parameter. It is assumed that an accurate inertial measurement unit gives perfect measurements of the state variables. Since the stochastic system is assumed to be Gauss-Markov, the density function of the parameters given these measurements is conditionally Gaussian. Based on this conditionally Gaussian density, the problem of minimizing a quadratic cost over an infinite time horizon can be set up within the framework of stochastic optimal control theory. The optimal feedback control law is derived from a straightforward expansion of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, based on the LQG solution. The resulting nonlinear controller is applied to the pitch axis control of a space platform with uncertain moments of inertia and is shown to produce marked improvement over a fixed controller.

Hahn, Yungsun↗

Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Calibration of Expensive Simulation Models

Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at different parameter settings. Using intelligent and adaptive selection of parameters to build the emulator can drastically improve the efficiency of the calibration process. The article proposes a sequential framework with a novel criterion for parameter selection that targets learning the posterior density of the parameters. The emergent behavior from this criterion is that exploration happens by selecting parameters in uncertain posterior regions while simultaneously exploitation happens by selecting parameters in regions of high posterior density. Furthermore, the advantages of the proposed method are illustrated using several simulation experiments and a nuclear physics reaction model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Common Cause Failure Modeling in Space Launch Vehicles

Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFs are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused for example by system environments, manufacturing, transportation, storage, maintenance, and assembly. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, they can be reduced, but are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and dependent CCF. Because common cause failure data is limited in the aerospace industry, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Team at Bastion Technology Inc. is estimating CCF risk using generic data collected by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Consequently, common cause risk estimates based on this database, when applied to other industry applications, are highly uncertain. Therefore, it is important to account for a range of values for independent and CCF risk and to communicate the uncertainty to decision makers. There is an existing methodology for reducing CCF risk during design, which includes a checklist of 40+ factors grouped into eight categories. Using this checklist, an approach to produce a beta factor estimate is being investigated that quantitatively relates these factors. In this example, the checklist will be tailored to space launch vehicles, a quantitative approach will be described, and an example of the method will be presented.

Hark, Frank↗

Coupled Aerodynamic and Hydrodynamic Hybrid Simulation of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines

The development and innovation of floating offshore wind energy in the U.S. requires detailed high-fidelity observations and measurements of turbine and platform loading due to wind, waves, and currents. However, full-scale and quasi-full-scale experiments require significant financial and temporal investments for construction, experimental testing, and long-term field campaigns. To support the commercial advancement of the offshore wind energy industry, specialized wind tunnel and wave basin experimental facilities are critical to be able to test FOWT designs at small scale under controlled conditions prior to full-scale deployment. Oregon State University (OSU) is internationally known as a leader in water and energy research, development, and testing. The O.H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory (HWRL) and the Wallace Energy Systems and Renewables Facility (WESRF) at OSU have extensive experience building, modeling, monitoring, controlling, and actuating scaled systems. Experiments on wave-structure interaction have been performed at the HWRL since its establishment in 1972. Studies have included the interaction of waves with coastal structures (breakwaters, seawalls, buildings, cylinders, bridges, fixed foundations of offshore wind turbines, etc.) and with floating structures (e.g., wave energy converters, maneuvering of vessels, etc.). Hinsdale is actively used by marine energy technology developers, both for private testing and OSU-collaborative research projects. However, despite the availability of several large-scale facilities for hydrodynamic testing (at OSU and elsewhere in the U.S.), existing experimental laboratories are generally limited in their ability to accurately generate combined wind and wave conditions. The simulation of both wind and waves in experimental testing is complicated due to a number of constraints, including: [i] incompatible similitude laws governing the wind and waves for scaled experiments, [ii] producing accurate wind over a large enough control volume via fans, and [iii] generating wind that reasonably represents the atmospheric boundary layer in existing wave basins/flumes. Hence, physical test data providing insight into the simultaneous wave- and wind-structure response of floating offshore wind components can be difficult to generate. Given the aforementioned challenges in classic hydrodynamic experiments, the motivation of this project is to establish a real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) approach that can apply aero- and hydro-dynamic loading by augmenting wave-only experimental facilities with virtual aerodynamic forces through numerical models representing the remaining dynamic forces. RTHS is a physical-numerical approach that partitions a prototype system into physical and numerical sub-assemblies that interact with each other through actuators and sensors in real time. In coupling physical and numerical models, the hybrid simulation approach applied herein is ideal for problems with: (1) structures subjected to different scaling laws, such as floating offshore wind turbines subjected to combined aero/hydro-dynamic loading, (2) structures that are too large or complex to be tested entirely in a laboratory setting, such as deep-water mooring applications, and (3) component testing, where the behavior of a portion of the assembly is uncertain but still interacts with other portions of the structure, such as testing the fatigue life of turbine blades. Few U.S. experimental facilities are able to test simultaneous aero- and hydro-dynamic loading and none can accurately produce aero/hydro-dynamic response on scaled FOWT models due to conflicting similitude laws between the wind (commonly Reynolds) and the waves (commonly Froude). To aid in accelerating the development of the U.S. floating offshore industry, there is a significant need to develop a flexible, modular framework that can expand the capacities of existing wave-only laboratories. The project goal is to demonstrate a hydrodynamic real-time hybrid simulation (hydro-RTHS) framework that couples numerical wind and physical waves acting on a FOWT, thus representing simultaneous aero/hydro-dynamic loading. The FOWT is partitioned into a full-scale numerical sub-assembly associated with the aerodynamics and a model-scale physical sub-assembly associated with the hydrodynamics. The numerical-physical partition associated with hydro-RTHS mitigates scaling constraints by supplying different scaling laws to the physical and numerical sub-assemblies. Herein, length, force, and time are scaled and exchanged between the sub-assemblies using Froude scaling to represent the open-channel flow in the physical sub-assembly. Other similitude laws could also be utilized depending on the problem definition. It is envisioned that the ability to model FOWTs under waves and wind, with mitigation of similitude distortions, would result in reduced development costs (currently, FOWT concept development is performed with full-size pro- totypes at enormous expense and risk) and increase the reliability of the FOWT industry (since extreme wave and wind conditions and contingency events can be tested safely in a controlled environment).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

A computational study of how surfaces affect slip family activity

Plastic deformation behavior is most conveniently assessed by characterization on a surface, but whether such observations are representative of bulk properties is uncertain. Motivated by reported inconsistencies in slip resistance probed at different depths, we investigated (i) whether the average slip family activity is affected by the presence of a surface and (ii) how the kinematic nature of available slip families influences a potential surface effect. The slip family activity as a function of distance from the surface was extracted from full-field crystal plasticity simulations of random polycrystalline hexagonal close-packed (HCP) and body-centered cubic (BCC) metals as examples of mixed in contrast to universally-high numbers of slip systems per family. Under certain conditions, a deviation from bulk slip activity is observed up to about two grains from the surface. For the easiest (least slip-resistant) family, a surface effect of decreasing activity with depth emerges if the number of slip systems falls below about six. For harder families, slip activity always increases with depth. Furthermore, these phenomena are explained on the basis of varying constraints with depth in connection with the kinematic properties of slip families in the material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗