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NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Emissions and Long-Range Transport on Multi-Decadal Aerosol Trends: Implications for Air Quality and Climate

We present a global model analysis of the impact of long-range transport and anthropogenic emissions on the aerosol trends in the major pollution regions in the northern hemisphere and in the Arctic in the past three decades. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model to analyze the multi-spatial and temporal scale data, including observations from Terra, Aqua, and CALIPSO satellites and from the long-term surface monitoring stations. We will analyze the source attribution (SA) and source-receptor (SR) relationships in North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, and the Arctic at the surface and free troposphere and establish the quantitative linkages between emissions from different source regions. We will discuss the implications for regional air quality and climate change.

Chin, Mian↗

NASA NTRS2011

Variability and Trends in Sea Ice Extent and Ice Production in the Ross Sea

Salt release during sea ice formation in the Ross Sea coastal regions is regarded as a primary forcing for the regional generation of Antarctic Bottom Water. Passive microwave data from November 1978 through 2008 are used to examine the detailed seasonal and interannual characteristics of the sea ice cover of the Ross Sea and the adjacent Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. For this period the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea shows the greatest increase of all the Antarctic seas. Variability in the ice cover in these regions is linked to changes in the Southern Annular Mode and secondarily to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate of increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 sq km/yr. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 cu km/yr, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. The increase in brine rejection in the Ross Shelf Polynya associated with the estimated increase with the ice production, however, is not consistent with the reported Ross Sea salinity decrease. The locally generated sea ice enhancement of Ross Sea salinity may be offset by an increase of relatively low salinity of the water advected into the region from the Amundsen Sea, a consequence of increased precipitation and regional glacial ice melt.

Comiso, Josefino↗

NASA NTRS2012

Determining Damping Trends from a Range of Cable Harness Assemblies on a Launch Vehicle Panel from Test Measurements

The team of authors at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has been investigating estimating techniques for the vibration response of launch vehicle panels excited by acoustics and/or aero-fluctuating pressures. Validation of the approaches used to estimate these environments based on ground tests of flight like hardware is of major importance to new vehicle programs. The team at MSFC has recently expanded upon the first series of ground test cases completed in December 2010. The follow on tests recently completed are intended to illustrate differences in damping that might be expected when cable harnesses are added to the configurations under test. This validation study examines the effect on vibroacoustic response resulting from the installation of cable bundles on a curved orthogrid panel. Of interest is the level of damping provided by the installation of the cable bundles and whether this damping could be potentially leveraged in launch vehicle design. The results of this test are compared with baseline acoustic response tests without cables. Damping estimates from the measured response data are made using a new software tool that employs a finite element model (FEM) of the panel in conjunction with advanced optimization techniques. This paper will report on the \damping trend differences. observed from response measurements for several different configurations of cable harnesses. The data should assist vibroacoustics engineers to make more informed damping assumptions when calculating vibration response estimates when using model based analysis approach. Achieving conservative estimates that have more flight like accuracy is desired. The paper may also assist analysts in determining how ground test data may relate to expected flight response levels. Empirical response estimates may also need to be adjusted if the measured response used as an input to the study came from a test article without flight like cable harnesses.

Smith, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2012

Analysis of Water and Energy Budgets and Trends Using the NLDAS Monthly Data Sets

The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) is a collaborative project between NASA GSFC, NOAA, Princeton University, and the University of Washington. NLDAS has created surface meteorological forcing data sets using the best-available observations and reanalyses. The forcing data sets are used to drive four separate land-surface models (LSMs), Mosaic, Noah, VIC, and SAC, to produce data sets of soil moisture, snow, runoff, and surface fluxes. NLDAS hourly data, accessible from the NASA GES DISC Hydrology Data Holdings Portal, http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/hydrology/data-holdings, are widely used by various user communities in modeling, research, and applications, such as drought and flood monitoring, watershed and water quality management, and case studies of extreme events. More information is available at http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/. To further facilitate analysis of water and energy budgets and trends, NLDAS monthly data sets have been recently released by NASA GES DISC.

Vollmer, Bruce E.↗

NASA NTRS2013

United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

Masek, Jeffrey G.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Correction Technique for Raman Water Vapor Lidar Signal-Dependent Bias and Suitability for Water Wapor Trend Monitoring in the Upper Troposphere

The MOHAVE-2009 campaign brought together diverse instrumentation for measuring atmospheric water vapor. We report on the participation of the ALVICE (Atmospheric Laboratory for Validation, Interagency Collaboration and Education) mobile laboratory in the MOHAVE-2009 campaign. In appendices we also report on the performance of the corrected Vaisala RS92 radiosonde measurements during the campaign, on a new radiosonde based calibration algorithm that reduces the influence of atmospheric variability on the derived calibration constant, and on other results of the ALVICE deployment. The MOHAVE-2009 campaign permitted the Raman lidar systems participating to discover and address measurement biases in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The ALVICE lidar system was found to possess a wet bias which was attributed to fluorescence of insect material that was deposited on the telescope early in the mission. Other sources of wet biases are discussed and data from other Raman lidar systems are investigated, revealing that wet biases in upper tropospheric (UT) and lower stratospheric (LS) water vapor measurements appear to be quite common in Raman lidar systems. Lower stratospheric climatology of water vapor is investigated both as a means to check for the existence of these wet biases in Raman lidar data and as a source of correction for the bias. A correction technique is derived and applied to the ALVICE lidar water vapor profiles. Good agreement is found between corrected ALVICE lidar measurments and those of RS92, frost point hygrometer and total column water. The correction is offered as a general method to both quality control Raman water vapor lidar data and to correct those data that have signal-dependent bias. The influence of the correction is shown to be small at regions in the upper troposphere where recent work indicates detection of trends in atmospheric water vapor may be most robust. The correction shown here holds promise for permitting useful upper tropospheric water vapor profiles to be consistently measured by Raman lidar within NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) and elsewhere, despite the prevalence of instrumental and atmospheric effects that can contaminate the very low signal to noise measurements in the UT.

MOHAVE-2009↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols: Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing - Part 1

We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of −2.0Wm(exp−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0Wm−2), nitrate (−0.2Wm(exp−2), organic carbon (−0.2Wm(exp−2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp−2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp−2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp−2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2014

Identification of Vehicle Health Assurance Related Trends

Trend analysis in aviation as related to vehicle health management (VHM) was performed by reviewing the most current statistical and prognostics data available from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) incident, and the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident datasets. In addition, future directions in aviation technology related to VHM research areas were assessed through the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementations (SERFIs), the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Most-Wanted List and recent open safety recommendations, the National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey of Civil Aeronautics, and the Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) areas of change. Future research direction in the VHM research areas is evidently strong as seen from recent research solicitations from the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), and VHM-related technologies actively being developed by aviation industry leaders, including GE, Boeing, Airbus, and UTC Aerospace Systems. Given the highly complex VHM systems, modifications can be made in the future so that the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology Project (VSST) technical challenges address inadequate maintenance crew's trainings and skills, and the certification methods of such systems as recommended by the NTSB, NRC, and FAST areas of change.

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa↗

NASA NTRS2014

Aviation Trends Related to Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project Technical Challenges

Current and future aviation safety trends related to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project's three technical challenges (engine icing characterization and simulation capability; airframe icing simulation and engineering tool capability; and atmospheric hazard sensing and mitigation technology capability) were assessed by examining the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident database (1989 to 2008), incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) accident/incident database (1989 to 2006), and literature from various industry and government sources. The accident and incident data were examined for events involving fixed-wing airplanes operating under Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Parts 121, 135, and 91 for atmospheric conditions related to airframe icing, ice-crystal engine icing, turbulence, clear air turbulence, wake vortex, lightning, and low visibility (fog, low ceiling, clouds, precipitation, and low lighting). Five future aviation safety risk areas associated with the three AEST technical challenges were identified after an exhaustive survey of a variety of sources and include: approach and landing accident reduction, icing/ice detection, loss of control in flight, super density operations, and runway safety.

Reveley, Mary S.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Monitoring Anthropogenic Disturbance Trends in an Industrialized Boreal Forest with Landsat Time Series

Human transformation of the terrestrial biosphere via resource utilization is a critical impetus for monitoring and characterizing anthropogenic change to vegetation condition. The primary objective of this research was to detect anthropogenic forest disturbance for a recent Landsat time series. A novel combination of an autonomous change detection procedure and spectral classification scheme was applied and tested in a landscape that has undergone significant resource development over the last 30 years. Anthropogenic disturbance was detected with greater than 93% accuracy. Most disturbances were correctly classified as within +/-1 year. The signal of anthropogenic disturbance was significant in the landscape, accounting for more than 91% of all disturbances and 86% of total disturbed area during the 23-year study period. The study demonstrated a robust approach for examining historical disturbance trends related to human-modification of the environment

industrialized↗

NASA NTRS2014

Detecting Trend and Seasonal Changes in Bathymetry Derived from HICO Imagery: A Case Study of Shark Bay, Western Australia

The Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) aboard the International Space Station has offered for the first time a dedicated space-borne hyperspectral sensor specifically designed for remote sensing of the coastal environment. However, several processing steps are required to convert calibrated top-of-atmosphere radiances to the desired geophysical parameter(s). These steps add various amounts of uncertainty that can cumulatively render the geophysical parameter imprecise and potentially unusable if the objective is to analyze trends and/or seasonal variability. This research presented here has focused on: (1) atmospheric correction of HICO imagery; (2) retrieval of bathymetry using an improved implementation of a shallow water inversion algorithm; (3) propagation of uncertainty due to environmental noise through the bathymetry retrieval process; (4) issues relating to consistent geo-location of HICO imagery necessary for time series analysis, and; (5) tide height corrections of the retrieved bathymetric dataset. The underlying question of whether a temporal change in depth is detectable above uncertainty is also addressed. To this end, nine HICO images spanning November 2011 to August 2012, over the Shark Bay World Heritage Area, Western Australia, were examined. The results presented indicate that precision of the bathymetric retrievals is dependent on the shallow water inversion algorithm used. Within this study, an average of 70% of pixels for the entire HICO-derived bathymetry dataset achieved a relative uncertainty of less than +/-20%. A per-pixel t-test analysis between derived bathymetry images at successive timestamps revealed observable changes in depth to as low as 0.4 m. However, the present geolocation accuracy of HICO is relatively poor and needs further improvements before extensive time series analysis can be performed.

coastal marine↗

NASA NTRS2014

Detecting Trend and Seasonal Changes in Bathymetry Derived from HICO Imagery: A Case Study of Shark Bay, Western Australia

The Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) aboard the International Space Station has offered for the first time a dedicated space-borne hyperspectral sensor specifically designed for remote sensing of the coastal environment. However, several processing steps are required to convert calibrated top-of-atmosphere radiances to the desired geophysical parameter(s). These steps add various amounts of uncertainty that can cumulatively render the geophysical parameter imprecise and potentially unusable if the objective is to analyze trends and/or seasonal variability. This research presented here has focused on: (1) atmospheric correction of HICO imagery; (2) retrieval of bathymetry using an improved implementation of a shallowwater inversion algorithm; (3) propagation of uncertainty due to environmental noise through the bathymetry retrieval process; (4) issues relating to consistent geo-location of HICO imagery necessary for time series analysis, and; (5) tide height corrections of the retrieved bathymetric dataset. The underlying question of whether a temporal change in depth is detectable above uncertainty is also addressed. To this end, nine HICO images spanning November 2011 to August 2012, over the Shark Bay World Heritage Area, Western Australia, were examined. The results presented indicate that precision of the bathymetric retrievals is dependent on the shallow water inversion algorithm used.Within this study, an average of 70% of pixels for the entire HICO-derived bathymetry dataset achieved a relative uncertainty of less than +/-20%. A per-pixel t-test analysis between derived bathymetry images at successive timestamps revealed observable changes in depth to as lowas 0.4 m. However, the present geolocation accuracy of HICO is relatively poor and needs further improvements before extensive time series analysis can be performed.

Geolocations accuracy↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Trends in the Arctic as Observed from Space

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be approx. 0.60+/-0.07 C/decade in the Arctic (>64degN) compared to approx. 0.17 C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of approx. 3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of approx.11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by −2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of approx. 34.0Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of approx. 215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented.

arctic↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Ability of Instantaneous Aircraft and Sonde Measurements to Characterize Climatological Means and Long-Term Trends in Tropospheric Composition

Over four decades of measurements exist that sample the 3-D composition of reactive trace gases in the troposphere from approximately weekly ozone sondes, instrumentation on civil aircraft, and individual comprehensive aircraft field campaigns. An obstacle to using these data to evaluate coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs)the models used to project future changes in atmospheric composition and climateis that exact space-time matching between model fields and observations cannot be done, as CCMs generate their own meteorology. Evaluation typically involves averaging over large spatiotemporal regions, which may not reflect a true average due to limited or biased sampling. This averaging approach generally loses information regarding specific processes. Here we aim to identify where discrete sampling may be indicative of long-term mean conditions, using the GEOS-Chem global chemical-transport model (CTM) driven by the MERRA reanalysis to reflect historical meteorology from 2003 to 2012 at 2o by 2.5o resolution. The model has been sampled at the time and location of every ozone sonde profile available from the Would Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC), along the flight tracks of the IAGOSMOZAICCARABIC civil aircraft campaigns, as well as those from over 20 individual field campaigns performed by NASA, NOAA, DOE, NSF, NERC (UK), and DLR (Germany) during the simulation period. Focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen species, we assess where aggregates of the in situ data are representative of the decadal mean vertical, spatial and temporal distributions that would be appropriate for evaluating CCMs. Next, we identically sample a series of parallel sensitivity simulations in which individual emission sources (e.g., lightning, biogenic VOCs, wildfires, US anthropogenic) have been removed one by one, to assess where and when the aggregated observations may offer constraints on these processes within CCMs. Lastly, we show results of an additional 31-year simulation from 1980-2010 of GEOS-Chem driven by the MACCity emissions inventory and MERRA reanalysis at 4o by 5o. We sample the model at every WOUDC sonde and flight track from MOZAIC and NASA field campaigns to evaluate which aggregate observations are statistically reflective of long-term trends over the period.

Atmospheric composition↗

NASA NTRS2015

Interannual Variability and Trends of CH4, CO and OH Using the Computationally-Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) Module

Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). Its 100-year global warming potential (GWP) is 34 times larger than that for carbon dioxide. The 100-year integrated GWPof CH4 is sensitive to changes in hydroxyl radical (OH) levels.Oxidation of CH4 and carbon monoxide (CO) by OH is the main loss process, thus affecting the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and contributing to the global ozone background. Limitations of using archived, monthly OH fields for studies of methane's and COs evolution are that feedbacks of the CH4-CO-OH system on methane, CO and OH are not captured. In this study, we employ the computationally Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) module (Elshorbany et al., 2015) to investigate the nonlinear feedbacks of the CH4-CO-OH system on the interannual variability and trends of the CH4, CO, OH system.

Methane↗

NASA NTRS2015

International Space Station (ISS) Anomalies Trending Study: Appendices - Volume II

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) set out to utilize data mining and trending techniques to review the anomaly history of the International Space Station (ISS) and provide tools for discipline experts not involved with the ISS Program to search anomaly data to aid in identification of areas that may warrant further investigation. Additionally, the assessment team aimed to develop an approach and skillset for integrating data sets, with the intent of providing an enriched data set for discipline experts to investigate that is easier to navigate, particularly in light of ISS aging and the plan to extend its life into the late 2020s. This document contains the Appendices to the Volume I report.

Beil, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

International Space Station (ISS) Anomalies Trending Study

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) set out to utilize data mining and trending techniques to review the anomaly history of the International Space Station (ISS) and provide tools for discipline experts not involved with the ISS Program to search anomaly data to aid in identification of areas that may warrant further investigation. Additionally, the assessment team aimed to develop an approach and skillset for integrating data sets, with the intent of providing an enriched data set for discipline experts to investigate that is easier to navigate, particularly in light of ISS aging and the plan to extend its life into the late 2020s. This report contains the outcome of the NESC Assessment.

Beil, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Curious Year on Mars - Long-Term Thermal Trends for Mars Science Laboratory Rover's First Martian Year

By the time of this writing, Curiosity, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Rover, has weathered four seasons in Gale Crater, just south of and approaching the foothills of the 5-km high Aeolis Mons, known as "Mount Sharp," at 4.59 deg south latitude. The mission design included a much broader latitude range of 30 deg north to 30 deg south constraining some of the Rover environmental requirements and operations. To date, Curiosity has relayed over 150 MB of thermal telemetry. Curiosity has relayed over 150 MB of thermal telemetry through four seasons. The trends and idiosyncrasies revealed through four seasons of telemetry from Mars are discussed. The better-characterized thermal environment allows for less conservatism in operational models and increases the amount of science data collection. Examples include: the elimination of overheating concerns for some cameras and the use of the previous sol's temperature telemetry along with the conservative soak temperature curve from the winter thermal model, to produce a custom heating prescription for the upcoming weeks thus increasing operation time and reducing heating times. This paper discusses the lessons learned for Rover operation as well as general idiosyncrasies discovered about the local environment-such as the effect of orientation on subsystem temperature variation, a regular morning and afternoon wind, ground and air microclimates with distinct temperature differences from other terrain, and how the Rover affects the local environment. This paper further documents and explains some of the interesting highs and lows of the temperature telemetry data as well as offers explanations for sudden temperature changes on board the Rover.

HRS↗