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At least 883 records · Page 49

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Safe and efficient surface operations↗

Effects off system factors on the economics of and demand for small solar thermal power systems

Market penetration as a function time, SPS performance factors, and market/economic considerations was estimated, and commercialization strategies were formulated. A market analysis task included personal interviews and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective SPS users. Interviews encompassed three ownership classes of electric utilities and industrial firms in the SIC codes for energy consumption. A market demand model was developed which utilized the data base developed, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential market for SPS.

Source record↗

The eivaN: A forward-looking interactive orbital trajectory plotting tool for use with proximity operations (PROX OPS) and other maneuvers: Description and user's manual

The results of vehicle burns on-orbit are very difficult to anticipate because of nonlinearities in the equations of motion governing orbiting bodies. This confusion was noticed firsthand in prior experimentation. Out of plane motion is relatively simple as it is uncoupled from the other two degrees of freedom. However, in plane thrusts are more complex because the motions resulting from these inputs are coupled. An interactive planning device, eivaN, was developed to plot resulting trajectories, to provide a better comprehension of orbital mechanics effects, and to help the user to develop heuristics for on-orbit mission planning. The eivaN runs with Microsoft Excel on a Macintosh computer. It provides a forward looking display: burn parameters in the three orthogonal axes in addition to time inputted, and the resultant trajectory is then plotted. Position and velocity components for any burn at any user specified time are readily available. A new area of research related to the human factors of real time, on-orbit mission planning was identified and is currently being investigated.

Brody, Adam R.↗

Effect of silver($\mathrm{I}$) ion reduction on the selectivity of olefins, paraffins, and aromatic compounds by gas chromatographic stationary phases consisting of silver($\mathrm{I}$) salts in ionic liquids

We report the olefin/paraffin selectivity offered by ionic liquid (IL) stationary phases can be enhanced through the addition of silver(I) ion, which is well-known to undergo selective complexation with unsaturated compounds. However, such stationary phases often suffer from the loss of chromatographic selectivity as silver(I) ion can be reduced to elemental silver. To maintain the separation performance of silver(I) ion/IL stationary phases, an understanding of factors and conditions that promote the reduction of silver(I) ion is needed. In this study, capillary gas chromatography columns featuring a stationary phase consisting of the 1-decyl-3-methylimidazolium bis[(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl]imide ([C 10 MIM + ][NTf 2 - ]) IL impregnated with [Ag + ][NTf 2 - ] were examined to investigate the effects of temperature, hydrogen content in exposure gas stream, and time of heating/exposure events on olefin selectivity. Retention factors of representative analytes, such as C 6 olefins and paraffins as well as aromatic compounds, were measured after subjecting the columns to the aforementioned conditions, followed by an evaluation of selectivity factors over time. Selectivity factors of olefins and aromatic compounds were observed to decrease significantly when the stationary phases were heated to temperatures higher than 110°C as well as being subjected to mixed gas streams containing greater than 50 mol% of hydrogen. As constant column heating temperatures were applied under exposure gas mixtures containing hydrogen and nitrogen, a gradual decrease in analyte selectivity factors was observed under prolonged periods of time. However, application of a ternary gas mixture comprised of 25/50/25 mol% hydrogen/nitrogen/methane resulted in an increase in the 3-hexyne/cis-2-hexene selectivity when measured at 120°C for 60 h, due to a smaller decrease in the retention factor of 3-hexyne compared to cis-2-hexene.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparing computational times for simulations when using PBPK model template and stand-alone implementations of PBPK models

Introduction We previously developed a PBPK model template that consists of a single model “superstructure” with equations and logic found in many physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. Using the template, one can implement PBPK models with different combinations of structures and features. Methods To identify factors that influence computational time required for PBPK model simulations, we conducted timing experiments using various implementations of PBPK models for dichloromethane and chloroform, including template and stand-alone implementations, and simulating four different exposure scenarios. For each experiment, we measured the required computational time and evaluated the impacts of including various model features (e.g., number of output variables calculated) and incorporating various design choices (e.g., different methods for estimating blood concentrations). Results We observed that model implementations that treat body weight and dependent quantities as constant (fixed) parameters can result in a 30% time savings compared with options that treat body weight and dependent quantities as time-varying. We also observed that decreasing the number of state variables by 36% in our PBPK model template led to a decrease of 20–35% in computational time. Other factors, such as the number of output variables, the method for implementing conditional statements, and the method for estimating blood concentrations, did not have large impacts on simulation time. In general, simulations with PBPK model template implementations of models required more time than simulations with stand-alone implementations, but the flexibility and (human) time savings in preparing and reviewing a model implemented using the PBPK model template may justify the increases in computational time requirements. Conclusion Our findings concerning how PBPK model design and implementation decisions impact computational speed can benefit anyone seeking to develop, improve, or apply a PBPK model, with or without the PBPK model template.

Bernstein, Amanda S.↗

A mathematical approach to using the forgetting curve to evaluate experience and training factors in human reliability analysis

Traditional human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have difficulty dealing with the dynamic nature of factors such as time and rely on static and expert-judgment-based assessments of performance-shaping factors (PSFs) across limited levels. In this study, we introduce a mathematical approach for dynamically evaluating the experience and training PSF. Our proposed method integrates the psychological concept of the “forgetting curve” to evaluate how PSFs are impacted by the number of trainings and the time elapsed since training. To confirm the validity of the model, we provide experimental data fitted by identifying the quantitative relationship between training and human performance. This research enables dynamic and objective assessments, thus reducing reliance on subjective expert judgment and improving the accuracy of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

ProZES: the methodology and software tool for assessment of assigned share of radiation in probability of cancer occurrence

ProZES is a software tool for estimating the probability that a given cancer was caused by preceding exposure to ionising radiation. ProZES calculates this probability, the assigned share, for solid cancers and hematopoietic malignant diseases, in cases of exposures to low-LET radiation, and for lung cancer in cases of exposure to radon. User-specified inputs include birth year, sex, type of diagnosed cancer, age at diagnosis, radiation exposure history and characteristics, and smoking behaviour for lung cancer. Cancer risk models are an essential part of ProZES. Linking disease and exposure to radiation involves several methodological aspects, and assessment of uncertainties received particular attention. ProZES systematically uses the principle of multi-model inference. Models of radiation risk were either newly developed or critically re-evaluated for ProZES, including dedicated models for frequent types of cancer and, for less common diseases, models for groups of functionally similar cancer sites. The low-LET models originate mostly from the study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Risks predicted by these models are adjusted to be applicable to the population of Germany and to different time periods. Adjustment factors for low dose rates and for a reduced risk during the minimum latency time between exposure and cancer are also applied. The development of the methodology and software was initiated and supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) taking up advice by the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK, Strahlenschutzkommission). These provide the scientific basis to support decision making on compensation claims regarding malignancies following occupational exposure to radiation in Germany.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Transmon Qubit Using Sn as a Junction Superconductor

Superconductor qubits typically use aluminum–aluminum oxide tunnel junctions to provide the nonlinear inductance. Junctions with semiconductor barriers make it possible to vary the superconductor material and explore beyond aluminum. We use InAs semiconductor nanowires coated with thin superconducting shells of β-Sn to realize transmon qubits. By tuning the Josephson energy with a gate voltage, we adjust the qubit frequency over a range of 3 GHz. The longest energy relaxation time, T 1 = 27 μs, is obtained at the lowest qubit frequencies, while the longest echo dephasing time, T 2 = 1.8 μs, is achieved at higher frequencies. Finally, we assess the possible factors limiting coherence times in these devices and discuss steps to enhance performance through improvements in materials fabrication and circuit design.

B-Sn↗

Scalable Circuit Cutting and Scheduling in a Resource-constrained and Distributed Quantum System

Despite quantum computing's rapid development, current systems remain limited in practical applications due to their limited qubit count and quality. Various technologies, such as superconducting, trapped ions, and neutral atom quantum computing technologies are progressing towards a fault tolerant era, however they all face a diverse set of challenges in scalability and control. Recent efforts have focused on multi-node quantum systems that connect multiple smaller quantum devices to execute larger circuits. Future demonstrations hope to use quantum channels to couple systems, however current demonstrations can leverage classical communication with circuit cutting techniques. This involves cutting large circuits into smaller subcircuits and reconstructing them post-execution. However, existing cutting methods are hindered by lengthy search times as the number of qubits and gates increases. Additionally, they often fail to effectively utilize the resources of various worker configurations in a multi-node system. To address these challenges, we introduce FitCut, a novel approach that transforms quantum circuits into weighted graphs and utilizes a community-based, bottom-up approach to cut circuits according to resource constraints, e.g., qubit counts, on each worker. FitCut also includes a scheduling algorithm that optimizes resource utilization across workers. Implemented with Qiskit and evaluated extensively, FitCut significantly outperforms the Qiskit Circuit Knitting Toolbox, reducing time costs by factors ranging from 3 to 2000 and improving resource utilization rates by up to 3.88 times on the worker side, achieving a system-wide improvement of 2.86 times.

Kan, Shuwen [Fordham University]↗

Time dependences of the 0.51 and 2.2 MeV lines in solar flares

The time dependence of the 0.51 MeV line in solar flares is determined by the following factors: variation with time of the rate of nuclear reactions which produce the positron emitters; mean lives of the positron emitters; slowing-down of the positrons which depends on the ambient density and magnetic field; and annihilation or positronium formation times of the positrons with free or bound electrons. The discussion is limited to the observed intensity-time profile of a 0.35-8 MeV gamma-ray emission and of a 0.51-MeV line calculated for three different ambient densities in the annihilation region. Major conclusions are that (1) MeV electrons and protons of at least 30 MeV/nuc have similar time dependences and hence a common origin in the flare region, which support a two-phase acceleration model in solar flares; and (2) the delayed character of the 0.51-MeV emission is clearly defined, where at a time when the rate of nuclear reactions is zero, there still is considerable 0.51-MeV emission.

Ramaty, R.↗

Change of Exposure Time Mid-test in High Temperature DIC Measurement

Performing digital image correlation (DIC) at extreme temperatures has been greatly challenging due to the radiation which saturates the camera sensor. At such high temperatures, the light intensity emitted from an object is occasionally so powerful that the acquired images are overwhelmingly saturated. This induces data loss, potentially ruining the test, thus requiring the user to restart the test. For this reason, selection of an appropriate camera sensitivity plays a crucial role prior to beginning the test. Exposure time is a factor contributing to camera sensitivity and it is the easiest setting to manipulate during the test since it introduces minimal errors when comparing to other factors, especially in quasi-static tests. This paper examines the influence of changing exposure time mid-test on DIC measurement uncertainty. The investigation was conducted by rigid body motion experiments at room temperature and 1600 ◦C, respectively. Thereby, some recommendations are given to help DIC users assess their images at room temperature to extrapolate the exposure at extreme temperatures along with accompanying solutions to salvage data at high temperature.

Digital Image Correlation↗

Determinants of Time to Fatigue during Non-Motorized Treadmill Exercise

Treadmill exercise is commonly used for aerobic and anaerobic conditioning. During non-motorized treadmill exercise, the subject must provide the power necessary to drive the treadmill belt. The purpose of this study was to determine what factors affected the time to fatigue on a pair of non-motorized treadmills. Twenty subjects (10 males/10 females) attempted to complete five minutes of locomotion during separate trials at 3.22, 4.83, 6.44, 8.05, 9.66, and 11.27 km (raised dot) h(sup -1). Total exercise time (less than or equal to 5 min) was recorded. Exercise time was converted to the amount of 15 second intervals completed. Peak oxygen uptake (VO2) was measured using a graded exercise test on a standard treadmill, and anthropometric measures were collected from each subject before entering into the study. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine significant predictive factors in a multivariate analysis. Non-motorized treadmill speed and absolute peak VO2 were found to be significant predictors of exercise time, but there was no effect of anthropometric characteristics. Gender was found to be a predictor of treadmill time, but this was likely due to a higher peak VO2 in males than in females. These results were not affected by the type of treadmill tested in this study. Coaches and therapists should consider the cardiovascular fitness of an athlete or client when prescribing target speed since these factors are related to the total exercise time than can be achieved on a non-motorized treadmill.

DeWitt, John K.↗

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary two-page assessment representing the state of knowledge/evidence of that risk, available risk mitigations, traceability to the Space Flight Human System Standards (SFHSS) and program requirements, and future work required. These data then can drive coordinated budgets across the Human Research Program, the International Space Station, Crew Health and Safety and Advanced Exploration System budgets to provide the most economical and timely mitigations. The risk assessments were completed for the 6 DRMs and serve as the baseline for which subsequent research and technology development and crew health care portfolios can be assessed. The HSRB reviews each risk at least annually or when new evidence/information is available that adds to the body of evidence. The current status of each risk can be reported to program management for operations, budget reviews and general oversight of the human system risk management program.

Francisco, D.↗

Improving Project Management with Simulation and Completion Distribution Functions

Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. A major culprit in late projects is uncertainty, which most, if not all, projects are inherently subject to. This uncertainty resides in the estimates for activity durations, the occurrence of unplanned and unforeseen events, and the availability of critical resources. In response to this problem, this research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion time risk analysis. It is called the Project Assessment by Simulation Technique (PAST). This new tool enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used within PAST to determine the completion distribution function for the project of interest. The simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. The deterministic inputs include planned project activities, precedence requirements, and resource requirements. The stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for events that can impact the project, and other dynamic constraints that may be placed upon project activities and milestones. These stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Repeating the simulation hundreds or thousands of times allows one to create the project completion distribution function. The Project Assessment by Simulation Technique was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going NASA project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. NASA project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions produced from PAST. The first result was that project stakeholders improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, using PAST, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.

Cates, Grant R.↗

Solid State Light Evaluation in the U.S. Lab Mockup

This document constitutes the publication of work performed by the Space Human Factors Laboratory (mail code SF5 at the time) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) in the months of June and July of 2000. At that time, the Space Human Factors Laboratory was part of the Space Human Factors Branch in the Flight Projects Division of the Space and Life Directorate. This report was originally to be a document for internal consumption only at JSC as it was seen to be only preliminary work for the further development of solid state illumination for general lighting on future space vehicles and the International Space Station (ISS). Due to funding constraints, immediate follow-on efforts were delayed and the need for publication of this document was overcome by other events. However, in recent years and with the development and deployment of a solid state light luminaire prototype on ISS, the time was overdue for publishing this information for general distribution and reference. Solid state lights (SSLs) are being developed to potentially replace the general luminaire assemblies (GLAs) currently in service in the International Space Station (ISS) and included in designs of modules for the ISS. The SSLs consist of arrays of light emitting diodes (LEDs), small solid state electronic devices that produce visible light in proportion to the electrical current flowing through them. Recent progressive advances in electrical power-to-light conversion efficiency in LED technology have allowed the consideration of LEDs as replacements for incandescent and fluorescent light sources in many circumstances, and their inherent advantages in ruggedness, reliability, and life expectancy make them attractive for applications in spacecraft. One potential area of application for the SSLs in the U.S. Laboratory Module of the ISS. This study addresses the suitability of the SSLs as replacements for the GLAs in this application.

Maida, James c.↗

Quantum mechanical out-of-time-ordered-correlators for the anharmonic (quartic) oscillator

Out-of-time-ordered correlators (OTOCs) have been suggested as a means to study quantum chaotic behavior in various systems. In this work, I calculate OTOCs for the quantum mechanical anharmonic oscillator with quartic potential, which is classically integrable and has a Poisson-like energy-level distribution. For low temperature, OTOCs are periodic in time, similar to results for the harmonic oscillator and the particle in a box. For high temperature, OTOCs exhibit a rapid (but power-like) rise at early times, followed by saturation consistent with 2 < x 2 >T < p 2 > T at late times. At high temperature, the spectral form factor decreases at early times, bounces back and then reaches a plateau with strong fluctuations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Neural Network for Principle of Least Action

The principle of least action is the cornerstone of classical mechanics, theory of relativity, quantum mechanics, and thermodynamics. Here, we describe how a neural network (NN) learns to find the trajectory for a Lennard-Jones (LJ) system that maintains balance in minimizing the Onsager–Machlup (OM) action and maintaining the energy conservation. The phase-space trajectory thus calculated is in excellent agreement with the corresponding results from the “ground-truth” molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. Furthermore, we show that the NN can easily find structural transformation pathways for LJ clusters, for example, the basin-hopping transformation of an LJ 38 from an incomplete Mackay icosahedron to a truncated face-centered cubic octahedron. Unlike MD, the NN computes atomic trajectories over the entire temporal domain in one fell swoop, and the NN time step is a factor of 20 larger than the MD time step. The NN approach to OM action is quite general and can be adapted to model morphometrics in a variety of applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulation Testing of Embedded Flight Software

Virtual Real Time (VRT) is a computer program for testing embedded flight software by computational simulation in a workstation, in contradistinction to testing it in its target central processing unit (CPU). The disadvantages of testing in the target CPU include the need for an expensive test bed, the necessity for testers and programmers to take turns using the test bed, and the lack of software tools for debugging in a real-time environment. By virtue of its architecture, most of the flight software of the type in question is amenable to development and testing on workstations, for which there is an abundance of commercially available debugging and analysis software tools. Unfortunately, the timing of a workstation differs from that of a target CPU in a test bed. VRT, in conjunction with closed-loop simulation software, provides a capability for executing embedded flight software on a workstation in a close-to-real-time environment. A scale factor is used to convert between execution time in VRT on a workstation and execution on a target CPU. VRT includes high-resolution operating- system timers that enable the synchronization of flight software with simulation software and ground software, all running on different workstations.

Shahabuddin, Mohammad↗