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NASA NTRS2007

Long Term Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node Prediction

Significant error has been observed in the long term prediction of the Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node on the Aqua spacecraft. This error of approximately 90 seconds over a two year prediction is a complication in planning and timing of maneuvers for all members of the Earth Observing System Afternoon Constellation, which use Aqua's MLTAN as the reference for their inclination maneuvers. It was determined that the source of the prediction error was the lack of a solid Earth tide model in the operational force models. The Love Model of the solid Earth tide potential was used to derive analytic corrections to the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of Aqua's Sun-synchronous orbit. Additionally, it was determined that the resonance between the Sun and orbit plane of the Sun-synchronous orbit is the primary driver of this error. The analytic corrections have been added to the operational force models for the Aqua spacecraft reducing the two-year 90-second error to less than 7 seconds.

McKinley, David P.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Long-term Satellite Observations of Asian Dust Storm: Source, Pathway, and Interannual Variability

Among the many components that contribute to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochemical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative-forcing effect on the climate system. In East Asia, dust storms frequently accompany the cold and dry air masses that occur as part of springtime cold front systems. Outbreaks of Asian dust storms occur often in the arid and semi-arid areas of northwestern China -about 1.6x10(exp 6) square kilometers including the Gobi and Taklimakan deserts- with continuous expanding of spatial coverage. These airborne dust particles, originating in desert areas far from polluted regions, interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols emitted from Chinese megacities during their transport over the mainland. Adding the intricate effects of clouds and marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from their sources. Furthermore, these aerosols, once generated over the source regions, can be transported out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere and can travel thousands of kilometers across the Pacific into the United States and beyond. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm to retrieve aerosol properties (e.g., optical thickness, single scattering albedo) over bright-reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Such retrievals have been difficult to perform using previously available algorithms that use wavelengths from the mid-visible to the near IR because they have trouble separating the aerosol signal from the contribution due to the bright surface reflectance. This new algorithm, called Deep Blue, utilizes blue-wavelength measurements from instruments such as SeaWiFS and MODIS to infer the properties of aerosols, since the surface reflectance over land in the blue part of the spectrum is much lower than for longer wavelength channels. Reasonable agreements have been achieved between Deep Blue retrievals of aerosol optical thickness and those directly from AERONET sunphotometers over desert and semi-desert regions. New Deep Blue products will allow scientists to determine quantitatively the aerosol properties near sources using high spatial resolution measurements from SeaWiFS and MODIS-like instruments. Long-term satellite measurements (1998 - 2007) from SeaWiFS will be utilized to investigate the interannual variability of source, pathway, and dust loading associated with the Asian dust storm outbreaks. In addition, monthly averaged aerosol optical thickness during the springtime from SeaWiFS will also be compared with the MODIS Deep Blue products.

Hsu, N. Christina↗

NASA NTRS2008

Atmospheric Parameter Climatologies from AIRS: Monitoring Short-, and Longer-Term Climate Variabilities and 'Trends'

The AIRS instrument is currently the best space-based tool to simultaneously monitor the vertical distribution of key climatically important atmospheric parameters as well as surface properties, and has provided high quality data for more than 5 years. AIRS analysis results produced at the GODDARD/DAAC, based on Versions 4 & 5 of the AIRS retrieval algorithm, are currently available for public use. Here, first we present an assessment of interrelationships of anomalies (proxies of climate variability based on 5 full years, since Sept. 2002) of various climate parameters at different spatial scales. We also present AIRS-retrievals-based global, regional and 1x1 degree grid-scale "trend"-analyses of important atmospheric parameters for this 5-year period. Note that here "trend" simply means the linear fit to the anomaly (relative the mean seasonal cycle) time series of various parameters at the above-mentioned spatial scales, and we present these to illustrate the usefulness of continuing AIRS-based climate observations. Preliminary validation efforts, in terms of intercomparisons of interannual variabilities with other available satellite data analysis results, will also be addressed. For example, we show that the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and from the AIRS computations are in remarkably good agreement. Version 6 of the AIRS retrieval scheme (currently under development) promises to further improve bias agreements for the absolute values by implementing a more accurate radiative transfer model for the OLR computations and by improving surface emissivity retrievals.

Molnar, Gyula↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Near-Term, High-Confidence Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle

The use of well understood, legacy elements of the Space Shuttle system could yield a near-term, high-confidence Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle that offers significant performance, reliability, schedule, risk, cost, and work force transition benefits. A side-mount Shuttle-Derived Vehicle (SDV) concept has been defined that has major improvements over previous Shuttle-C concepts. This SDV is shown to carry crew plus large logistics payloads to the ISS, support an operationally efficient and cost effective program of lunar exploration, and offer the potential to support commercial launch operations. This paper provides the latest data and estimates on the configurations, performance, concept of operations, reliability and safety, development schedule, risks, costs, and work force transition opportunities for this optimized side-mount SDV concept. The results presented in this paper have been based on established models and fully validated analysis tools used by the Space Shuttle Program, and are consistent with similar analysis tools commonly used throughout the aerospace industry. While these results serve as a factual basis for comparisons with other launch system architectures, no such comparisons are presented in this paper. The authors welcome comparisons between this optimized SDV and other Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle concepts.

Rothschild, William J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Long-Term Atmospheric Changes Caused by the Very Large Solar Proton Event in July 2000

Solar cycle 23 was accompanied by eight very large solar proton events (SPEs) between 2000 and 2005, along with numerous smaller events. The very large SPE in July 2000, which was associated with the well-known 'Bastille Day Solar Storm,' caused very substantial changes in the polar mesosphere and stratosphere. Significant downward transport of the SPE-produced NO(x) from the polar lower mesosphere and upper stratosphere during the Southern Hemisphere winter period resulted in huge enhancements (>100%) in middle stratospheric NO(x) (NO+NO2) during September 2000 in the polar vortex, which were measured by UARS HALOE (C. E. Randall et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 28,2385-2388,2001). We have used the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the longer-term impact of the July 2000 SPE, the third largest SPE period in the past 40 years. This very large SPE provided a wonderful opportunity to study the downward transport of energetic particle precipitation effects in the middle atmosphere. Not surprisingly, the WACCM-simulated polar Northern Hemisphere influences from the July (mid-summer) 2000 SPE were significant for a few months, but the constituent changes were not transported below about 20 hPa. However in the polar Southern Hemisphere (SH) region, the persistent downward transport in the vortex during the months of July-August-September resulted in significant modeled influences for about a year past the SPE. The SH odd nitrogen family, NO(y) (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, BrONO2), was greatly enhanced by this SPE and these increases were transported to the lower stratosphere. The SPE-enhanced polar NO(y) resulted in long-lasting ozone decreases (from catalytic NO(y) destruction of ozone) and ozone increases (from NO(y) interference in the chlorine and bromine catalytic ozone destruction cycles). These ozone changes resulted in simulated SH polar stratospheric temperature decreases (1-2 K) and increases (1-3 K)..

Jackman, C. H.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Workshop Report on Deep Mars: Accessing the Subsurface of Mars on Near Term Missions

The workshop encompassed three major themes. The first theme was the scientific objectives of drilling, which center on the search for clues to the existence of past life and to the geological and climate history of Mars. Key questions are where and how deep to drill? Planetary protection issues were stressed as an important consideration in the design of any drilling mission. Secondly, architectures for drilling missions were discussed, including an overview of most of the current drills in operation that would be applicable to drilling on Mars. Considerable emphasis was placed on remote operation and drilling automation technologies. Finally, alternatives to conventional drilling were discussed. These included underground moles, penetrometers, horizontal drilling, impactors, and access to the subsurface from subsurface cavities. Considerable discussion centered on the possible Mars drilling missions that could be performed in both the near and longer term. The workshop participants concluded that useful science could be obtained today using low-cost impactors, with or without a sheperding spacecraft.

Langhoff, Stephanie R.↗

NASA NTRS2009

RXTE Monitoring of the Anomalous X-ray Pulsar 1E 1048.1-5937: Long-Term Variability and the 2007 March Event

After three years of no unusual activity, Anomalous X-ray Pulsar 1E 1048.1-5937 reactivated in 2007 March. We report on the detection of a large glitch (deltav/v = 1.63(2) x 10(exp -5)) on 2007 March 26 (MJD 54185.9), contemporaneous with the onset of a pulsed-flux flare, the third flare observed from this source in 10 years of monitoring with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. Additionally, we report on a detailed study of the evolution of the timing properties, the pulsed flux, and the pulse profile of this source as measured by RXTE from 1996 July to 2008 January. In our timing study, we attempted phase coherent timing of all available observations. We show that in 2001, a timing anomaly of uncertain nature occurred near the rise of the first pulsed flux flare; we show that a likely glitch (deltav/v = 2.91(9) x 10(exp -6)) occurred in 2002, near the rise of the second flare, and we present a detailed description of the variations in the spin-down. In our pulsed flux study, we compare the decays of the three flares and discuss changes in the hardness ratio. In our pulse profile study, we show that the profile exhibited large variations near the peak of the first two flares, and several small short-term profile variations during the most recent flare. Finally, we report on the discovery of a small burst 27 days after the peak of the last flare, the fourth burst discovered from this source. We discuss the relationships between the observed properties in the framework of the magnetar model.

Dib, Rim↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Impact of the Assimilation of AIRS Radiance Measurements on Short-term Weather Forecasts

Advanced spaceborne instruments have the ability to improve the horizontal and vertical characterization of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere through the explicit use of hyperspectral thermal infrared radiance measurements. The incorporation of these measurements into a data assimilation system provides a means to continuously characterize a three-dimensional, instantaneous atmospheric state necessary for the time integration of numerical weather forecasts. Measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are incorporated into the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system to provide improved initial conditions for use in a mesoscale modeling framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The methodologies for the incorporation of the measurements into the system are presented. Though the measurements have been shown to have a positive impact in global modeling systems, the measurements are further constrained in this system as the model top is physically lower than the global systems and there is no ozone characterization in the background state. For a study period, the measurements are shown to have positive impact on both the analysis state as well as subsequently spawned short-term (0-48 hr) forecasts, particularly in forecasted geopotential height and precipitation fields. At 48 hr, height anomaly correlations showed an improvement in forecast skill of 2.3 hours relative to a system without the AIRS measurements. Similarly, the equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 hr)-1 were shown to be improved by 8% and 7%, respectively.

McCarty, Will↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Review of the Recent NASA Long-Term Orbital Debris Environment Projection and Active Debris Removal Modeling Activities

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) developed a high fidelity debris evolutionary model, LEGEND (a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), in 2004 to enhance its capability to better model the near-Earth environment. LEGEND can mimic the growth of the historical debris population and project it into the future based on user-defined scenarios. The first major LEGEND study concluded that even without any future launches, the LEO population would continue to increase due to mutual collisions among existing objects. In reality, the increase will be worse than this prediction because of ongoing satellite launches and unexpected major breakups. Even with a full implementation of the commonly-adopted mitigation measures, the LEO population growth is inevitable. To preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations, active debris removal (ADR) must be considered. A follow-up LEGEND ADR study was completed recently. The main results indicate that (1) the mass and collision probability of each object can be used to establish an effective removal selection criterion and (2) a removal rate of ~5 objects per year is sufficient to stabilize the LEO environment. Due to the limitation of removal techniques, however, different target selection criteria (in size, altitude, inclination, etc.) may be more practical. A careful evaluation of the effectiveness of different proposed techniques must be carried out to maximize the long-term benefit to the environment.

Liou, J.C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

NASA's Long-term Debris Environment and Active Debris Removal Modeling Activities

This slide presentation reviews the modeling activities for modeling of the long-term debris environment, the updated assessments of the environment, and the necessity to model the effectiveness of the technologies aimed at the removal of orbital debris. The model being used is named a LEO to GEO environment debris (LEGEND). It is a high fidelity three dimensional numerical simulation model with the capability to treat objects individually. It uses a Monte Carlo approach and a collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate future satellite breakups and the growth of the debris populations.

Liou, J.-C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Short-term Aerosol Trends: Reality or Myth?

The main questions addressed in this slide presentation involve short-term trends of MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over 6 years: (1) Why are the trends different in different regions? (2) How are these trends so high? (3) Why are they "coherent" in many areas? (4) Are these changes in aerosol concentrations real, i.e., are they monotonic changes in emissions? Several views of the Spatial Distribution of AOT from Terra are shown. In conclusion there are several trends: (1) There is a broad spatial inhomogenueity in AOT trends over 6 years of MODIS Terra and Aqua (2) Some of the areas demonstrate clear positive trends related to increase of emission (e.g., Eastern China) (3) Strong trends in some other areas are superficial and might be attributed, in part, to: (3a) Least squares linear trend sensitivity to outliers (need to use more robust linear fitting method) (3b) Spatial and temporal shifts or trends in meteorological conditions, especially in wind patterns responsible for aerosol transport (6) Aerosol trends should be studied together with changes in meteorology patterns as they might closely linked together

Leptoukh, Gregory↗

NASA NTRS2010

Long-Term Time Series of Remote Sensing Observations for Development of Regulatory Water Quality Standards

Water quality standards in the U.S. consist of: designated uses (the services that a water body provides; e.g., drinking water, aquatic life, harvestable species, recreation) . criteria that define the environmental conditions that must be maintained to support the uses For estuaries and coastal waters in the Gulf of Mexico, there are no numeric (quantitative) criteria to protect designated uses from effects of nutrients. This is largely due to the absence of adequate data that would quantitatively link biological conditions to nutrient concentrations. The Gulf of Mexico Alliance, an organization fostering collaboration between the Gulf States and U.S. Federal agencies, has identified the development of the numeric nutrient criteria as a major step leading to reduction in MODIS Products Figure 6. Map of the Mobile Bay with a yellow patch indicating the Bon Secour Bay area selected in this study for averaging water clarity parameters retrieved from MODIS datasets. nutrient inputs to coastal ecosystems. Nutrient enrichment in estuaries and coastal waters can be quantified based on response variables that measure phytoplankton biomass and water clarity. Long-term, spatially and temporally resolved measurements of chlorophyll a concentration, total concentration of suspended solids, and water clarity are needed to establish reference conditions and to quantify stressor-response relationships.

Blonski, Slawomir↗

NASA NTRS2008

Measurements of Humidity in the Atmosphere: Validation Experiments (MOHAVE I and MOHAVE II). Results Overview and Implication for the Long-Term Lidar Monitoring of Water Vapor in the UT/LS

1. MOHAVE+MOHAVE II = very successful. 2. MOHAVE -> Fluorescence was found to be inherent to all three participating lidars. 3. MOHAVE II -> Fluorescence was removed and agreement with CFH was extremely good up to 16-18 km altitude. 4. MOHAVE II -> Calibration tests revealed unsuspected shortfalls of widely used techniques, with important implications for their applicability to longterm measurements. 5. A factor of 5 in future lidar signal-to-noise ratio is reasonably achievable. When this level is achieved water vapor Raman lidar will become a key instrument for the long-term monitoring of water vapor in the UT/LS

MOHAVE II↗

NASA NTRS2010

Long-Term Lunar Radiation Degradation Effects on Materials

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is focused on developing technologies for extending human presence beyond low Earth orbit. These technologies are to advance the state-of-the-art and provide for longer duration missions outside the protection of Earth's magnetosphere. One technology of great interest for large structures is advanced composite materials, due to their weight and cost savings, enhanced radiation protection for the crew, and potential for performance improvements when compared with existing metals. However, these materials have not been characterized for the interplanetary space environment, and particularly the effects of high energy radiation, which is known to cause damage to polymeric materials. Therefore, a study focusing on a lunar habitation element was undertaken to investigate the integrity of potential structural composite materials after exposure to a long-term lunar radiation environment. An overview of the study results are presented, along with a discussion of recommended future work.

Rojdev, Kristina↗

NASA NTRS2000

Quantitative Assessment of Countermeasure Efficacy for Long-Term Space Missions

This slide presentation reviews the development of quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of countermeasures (CM) for the effects of space travel on humans for long term space missions. An example of bone mineral density (BMD) is examined to show specific quantitative measures for failure and success.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Fingerprinting the Impacts of Aerosols on Long-Term Trends of the Indian Summer Monsoon Regional Rainfall

In this paper, we present corroborative observational evidences from satellites, in-situ observations, and re-analysis data showing possible impacts of absorbing aerosols (black carbon and dust) on subseasonal and regional summer monsoon rainfall over India. We find that increased absorbing aerosols in the Indo-Gangetic Plain in recent decades may have lead to long-term warming of the upper troposphere over northern India and the Tibetan Plateau, enhanced rainfall in northern India and the Himalayas foothill regions in the early part (may-June) of the monsoon season, followed by diminished rainfall over central and southern India in the latter part (July-August) of the monsoon season. These signals which are consistent with current theories of atmospheric heating and solar dimming by aerosol and induced cloudiness in modulating the Indian monsoon, would have been masked by conventional method of using al-India rainfall averaged over the entire monsoon season.

Laul, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Decline in Aerobic Fitness After Long-Term Stays on the International Space Station

U.S. and non-Russian International Partner astronauts who participate in long-term International Space Station (ISS) expeditions perform submaximal cycle exercise tests before, during, and after space flight. The heart rate (HR) and oxygen uptake (VO2) responses to exercise are used to estimate peak VO2 (EVO2pk). Purpose: To determine if the following factors are associated with the preflight-to-post flight change in EVO2pk: gender, age, body weight (BW), number of aerobic exercise sessions/wk- during flight, length of flight, EVO2pk measured before and late during the flight, ISS Expedition number and time between landing and the first post flight test. Methods: Records of 37 ISS astronauts (30 male, BW=81.6 plus or minus 8.6 kg; 7 female BW=66.1 plus or minus 4.9 kg [mean plus or minus SD]), age 46 plus or minus 4 years, were retrospectively examined. Peak HR and VO2 were measured approximately 9 months before flight to establish the test protocol. The submaximal cycle test consisted of three 5-minute stages designed to elicit 25, 50, and 75% of VO2pk. EVO2pk was calculated using linear least-squares extrapolation of average HR and VO2 during the last minute of each stage to predict VO2 at maximal HR. VO2 was not measured during flight and was assumed to not be different from preflight. Testing was performed 45 days before launch, late during flight, and during the week after landing. A random-intercept multivariate model was used to determine which characteristics significantly contributed to post flight EVO2pk. Results: In-flight aerobic exercise averaged 5.4 plus or minus 1.2 sessions/wk. ISS flight duration averaged 163 plus or minus 39 d. Mean EVO2pk values were 3.41 plus or minus 0.64 L (raised dot) per minute before flight, 3.09 plus or minus 0.57 L (raised dot) per minute late in flight, and 3.02 plus or minus 0.65 L (raised dot) per minute after flight. Late- and after-flight values were lower (p less than 0.05) than preflight values and did not differ from each other. Time between landing and post flight testing was 4.5 plus or minus 1.6 days. The only factor significantly associated with the post flight EVO2pk value was the late-flight EVO2pk score. Conclusion: Testing performed late during a mission provides a prediction of EVO2pk after landing. This approach may be implemented during longer missions.

Lynn, Peggy A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

In-Situ Strain Analysis of Potential Habitat Composites Exposed to a Simulated Long-Term Lunar Radiation Exposure

NASA is studying the effects of long-term space radiation on potential multifunctional composite materials for habitats to better determine their characteristics in the harsh space environment. Two composite materials were selected for the study and were placed in a test stand that simulated the stresses of a pressure vessel wall on the material. The samples in the test stand were exposed to radiation at either a fast dose rate or a slow dose rate, and their strain and temperature was recorded during the exposure. It was found that during a fast dose rate exposure the materials saw a decreased strain with time, or a shrinking of the materials. Given previous radiation studies of polymers, this is believed to be a result of crosslinking occurring in the matrix material. However, with a slow dose rate, the materials saw an increase in strain with time, or a stretching of the materials. This result is consistent with scission or degradation of the matrix occurring, possibly due to oxidative degradation.

Rojdev, Kristina↗