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At least 883 records · Page 49

Joint Bayesian analysis of large angular scale CMB temperature anomalies

Cosmic microwave background measurements show an agreement with the concordance cosmology model except for a few notable anomalies: Power Suppression , the lack of large scale power in the temperature data compared to what is expected in the concordance model, and Cosmic Hemispherical Asymmetry , a dipolar breakdown of statistical isotropy. An expansion of the CMB covariance in Bipolar Spherical Harmonics naturally parametrizes both these large-scale anomalies, allowing us to perform an exhaustive, fully Bayesian joint analysis of the power spectrum and violations of statistical isotropy up to the dipole level. Our analysis sheds light on the scale dependence of the Cosmic Hemispherical Asymmetry. Assuming a scale-dependent dipole modulation model with a two-parameter power law form, we explore the posterior pdf of amplitude A($l$ = 16) and the power law index α and find the maximum a posteriori values A * (l = 16) = 0.064 ± 0.022 and $α_*$ = -0.92 ± 0.22. The maximum a posteriori direction associated with the Cosmic Hemispherical Asymmetry is ($l,b$) = (247.8 o , -19.6 o ) in Galactic coordinates, consistent with previous analyses. We evaluate the Bayes factor BSI-DM to compare the Cosmic Hemispherical Asymmetry model with the isotropic model. The data prefer but do not substantially favor the anisotropic model (BSI-DM=0.4). We consider several priors and find that this evidence ratio is robust to prior choice. The large-scale power suppression does not soften when jointly inferring both the isotropic power spectrum and the parameters of the asymmetric model, indicating no evidence that these anomalies are coupled.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cosmic topology. Part I. Limits on orientable Euclidean manifolds from circle searches

The Einstein field equations of general relativity constrain the local curvature at every point in spacetime, but say nothing about the global topology of the Universe. Cosmic microwave background anisotropies have proven to be the most powerful probe of non-trivial topology since, within ΛCDM, these anisotropies have well-characterized statistical properties, the signal is principally from a thin spherical shell centered on the observer (the last scattering surface), and space-based observations nearly cover the full sky. The most generic signature of cosmic topology in the microwave background is pairs of circles with matching temperature and polarization patterns. No such circle pairs have been seen above noise in the WMAP or Planck temperature data, implying that the shortest non-contractible loop around the Universe through our location is longer than 98.5% of the comoving diameter of the last scattering surface. We translate this generic constraint into limits on the parameters that characterize manifolds with each of the nine possible non-trivial orientable Euclidean topologies, and provide a code which computes these constraints. In all but the simplest cases, the shortest non-contractible loop in the space can avoid us, and be shorter than the diameter of the last scattering surface by a factor ranging from 2 to at least 6. Further, this result implies that a broader range of manifolds is observationally allowed than widely appreciated. Probing these manifolds will require more subtle statistical signatures than matched circles, such as off-diagonal correlations of harmonic coefficients.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis of the inter-species power balance in JET plasmas

Most auxiliary heating methods provide heating to more than one particle species (electrons, ions, impurities) in a fusion plasma. This can lead to substantial temperature differences between species, depending on conditions such as heating power to the different species and collisionality, with temperature differences between species limited by inter-species thermal equipartition and transport. The analysis of the steady-state electron-ion and impurity-ion power balances presented in this paper are used for consistency-checking experimental ion and electron temperature measurements and for inferring the main ion temperature from measured impurity temperatures. As ion temperature measurements by charge exchange spectroscopy (CXS) based on impurity ions have become more difficult and time-consuming since the installation of the ITER-like wall (ILW) with Be and W PFC's, knowing the maximum sustainable temperature difference between ions and electrons, |T i -T e | allows rejecting erroneous measurements. It also obviates the need for an ion temperature measurement, if an electron temperature measurement is available and |T i - T e | cannot be larger than the combined errors of the underlying measurements. A power balance analysis is also required for estimating the errors of the ion and electron heat fluxes prior to any species-resolved transport analysis. The ion-impurity temperature differences are usually found to be small due to strong thermal equipartition between ion species. However, they can approach 10% in JET-ILW low density, high power discharges, such the ones under development for a future JET deuterium–tritium campaign (Joffrin et al 2019 Nucl. Fusion). This has a generally small, but not always negligible effect on the calculation of fusion reaction rates, which depend on main ion temperatures. An important outcome of this analysis is that temperature differences between impurity species are always much smaller than between the impurities and hydrogenic species and can usually be neglected. The article presents two methods for calculating the impurity-to-main ion temperature ratio. Finally, this analysis leads to a method for the reconstruction ion temperature profiles from ion temperature data available at only one or a small number of spatial locations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sublattice Magnetic Relaxation in Rare Earth Iron Garnets

The magnetic properties of rare earth garnets make them attractive materials for applications ranging from optical communications to magnetic refrigeration. The purpose of this research was to determine the AC magnetic properties of several rare earth garnets, in order to ascertain the contributions of various sublattices. Gd3Fe5O¬12, Gd3Ga5O12, Tb3Fe5O12, Tb3Ga5O12, and Y3Fe5O12 were synthesized by a solid state reaction of their oxides and verified by x-ray diffraction. Frequency-dependent AC susceptibility and DC magnetization were measured versus temperature (10 – 340 K). Field cooling had little effect on AC susceptibility, but large effect on DC magnetization, increasing magnetization at the lowest temperature and shifting the compensation point to lower temperatures. Data suggest that interaction of the two iron lattices results in the two frequency dependent magnetic relaxations in the iron garnets, which were fit using the Vogel-Fulcher and Arrhenius laws.

AC susceptibility↗

Design and Analysis Progress of ITER Diagnostic Equatorial Port #09

ITER is the world's largest fusion device currently under construction in the South of France with >50 diagnostic systems to be installed inside the port plugs (PPs), the interspace (IS), or the port cell region of various diagnostic ports. The plasma facing diagnostic first wall (DFW) and its supporting diagnostic shield modules (DSM) are designed to protect front-end diagnostics from plasma neutron and plasma radiation, while providing apertures for diagnostic access to the plasma. The design of ITER port plug structures including the DFW and the DSM is largely driven by the electromagnetic loads included on the PP structural components during plasma major disruptions and the vertical displacement events (VDEs). Unlike DFW and DSM, the design of diagnostic system, however, is likely driven by the steady-state thermal loads from plasma volumetric and surface heating and the dynamic response of the in-port components attached to the port-specific DSM or closure plate under transient loads induced on the vacuum vessel and the port extension during asymmetric VDEs. Three tenant diagnostic systems are integrated into the equatorial port 09. The toroidal interferometer/polarimeter, or TIP system, is installed in the left drawer (DSM3, left looking from plasma) for measuring the plasma density so to control the fuel input. The electron cyclotron emission (ECE) system is installed in the middle drawer (DSM2) to provide the high spatial and temporal resolution measurements of electron temperature evolution and the electron thermal transport inferences. The visible/infrared wide angle viewing system is installed in the right drawer (DSM1) to provide visible and infrared viewing and temperature data of the first wall for its protection in support of machine operation. The port plug integration design and multiphysics analyses are performed following port integration requirements including the weight limit (45 tones total), shut down dose rate limits, the cooling/heating and structural integrity validation. Mass distribution for TIP and ECE DSMs has been optimized to minimize the total weight by a new design of the boron carbide shielding pocket. Furthermore, the lightened DSM maintains its front-end load distribution and the structural stiffness with minimum impact to the DFW so to better protect on-board diagnostics; while still provides sufficient front-end stiffness for its structural integrity as well as the diagnostics function requirements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Snow-eater heat waves of the western United States

Abrupt snowmelt, triggered by rain-on-snow events or "snow-eater heat waves," can cause flooding, initiate or accelerate snow drought, and affect water availability. However, the characteristics (e.g., area, duration, and frequency), impacts, and trends of snow-eater heat waves have received little attention. To address this gap, we developed a method to identify snow-eater heat waves and estimate their melt potential using 20th Century Reanalysis version 3 air temperature data, the TempestExtremes algorithm, and an operational snowmelt model (SNOW-17) across 1850-2015. Melt season snow-eater heat waves typically last 3 to 5 days, with three to five events, doubling snowmelt rates. Seven of 11 spring superfloods are shown to coincide with snow-eater heat waves. Since the 1850s, snow-eater heat waves have increased in area and frequency, decreased in duration, and shifted earlier in the melt season. Incorporating snow-eater heat-wave impacts into SNOW-17 enhances extreme melt estimates, improving water management support tools.

Rhoades, Alan M↗

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI. The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Three-Dimensional Convective–Stratiform Echo-Type Classification and Convectivity Retrieval from Radar Reflectivity

The Echo Classification from COnvectivity (ECCO) algorithm identifies convective and stratiform types of radar echo in three dimensions. It is based on the calculation of reflectivity texture—a combination of the intensity and the heterogeneity of the radar echoes on each horizontal plane in a 3D Cartesian volume. Reflectivity texture is translated into convectivity, which is designed to be a quantitative measure of the convective nature of each 3D radar grid point. It ranges from 0 (100% stratiform) to 1 (100% convective). By thresholding convectivity, a more traditional qualitative categorization is obtained, which classifies radar echoes as convective, mixed, or stratiform. In contrast to previous algorithms, these echo-type classifications are provided on the full 3D grid of the reflectivity field. The vertically resolved classifications, in combination with temperature data, allow for subclassifications into shallow, mid-, deep, and elevated convective features, and low, mid-, and high stratiform regions—again in three dimensions. The algorithm was validated using datasets collected over the U.S. Great Plains during the PECAN field campaign. An analysis of lightning counts shows ~90% of lightning occurring in regions classified as convective by ECCO. A statistical comparison of ECCO echo types with the well-established GPM radar precipitation-type categories show 84% (88%) of GPM stratiform (convective) echo being classified as stratiform (convective) or mixed by ECCO. ECCO was applied to radar grids for the continental United States, the United Arab Emirates, Australia, and Europe, illustrating its robustness and adaptability to different radar grid characteristics and climatic regions.

Radars/Radar observations↗

Estimated Darcy Velocities Using Temperature Time Series for Meander A of East River, Colorado

Heat was used as a tracer to quantify seasonal changes in vertical Darcy velocity through the streambed at three different locations about Meander A of East River, Colorado. The file Raw_Temp.csv represents raw temperature data (in degrees Celsius) collected from the three locations, A, B, and C, at depths of 5, 10, 20, and 35 cm below the sediment-water interface. Darcy velocity estimates were calculated from these data using 1DTempPro and are shown in 1DTempPro_estimates.csv file. Positive values represent upwelling conditions, while negative values indicate downwelling conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Evaluation of the Carbon Sequestration Potential of the Cambro-Ordovician Strata of the Illinois and Michigan Basins. Part 1. Evaluation of Phase 2 CO 2 Injection Testing in the Deep Saline Gunter Sandstone Reservoir (Cambro-Ordovician Knox Group), Marvin Blan No. 1 Hancock County, Kentucky Part 2. Time-lapse Three-Dimensional Vertical Seismic Profile (3D-VSP) of Sequestration Target Interval with Injected Fluids

Part 1 of this report focuses on results of the western Kentucky carbon storage test, and provides a basis for evaluating injection and storage of supercritical CO 2 in Cambro-Ordovician carbonate reservoirs throughout the U.S. Midcontinent. This test demonstrated that the Cambro- Ordovician Knox Group, including the Beekmantown Dolomite, Gunter Sandstone, and Copper Ridge Dolomite in stratigraphic succession from shallowest to deepest, had reservoir properties suitable for supercritical CO 2 storage in a deep saline reservoir hosted in carbonate rocks, and that strata with properties sufficient for long-term confinement of supercritical CO 2 were present in the deep subsurface. Injection testing with brine and CO 2 was completed in two phases. The first phase, a joint project by the Kentucky Geological Survey and the Western Kentucky Carbon Storage Foundation, drilled the Marvin Blan No. 1 carbon storage research well and tested the entire Knox Group section in the open borehole – including the Beekmantown Dolomite, Gunter Sandstone, and Copper Ridge Dolomite – at 1152–2255 m, below casing cemented at 1116 m. During Phase 1 injection testing, most of the 297 tonnes of supercritical CO 2 was displaced into porous and permeable sections of the lowermost Beekmantown below 1463 m and Gunter. The wellbore was then temporarily abandoned with a retrievable bridge plug in casing at 1105 m and two downhole pressure-temperature monitoring gauges below the bridge plug pending subsequent testing. Pressure and temperature data were recorded every minute for slightly more than a year, providing a unique record of subsurface reservoir conditions in the Knox. In contrast, Phase 2 testing, this study, tested a mechanically-isolated dolomitic-sandstone interval in the Gunter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pilot Study of Fuel and Stove Use Behavior of Mongolian Ger Households

To reduce levels of outdoor air pollution, new energy-efficient solid fuel stoves have been offered for sale in the ger regions of Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia. These energy efficient stoves ideally use less fuel than the traditional stove and emit a tenth of the pollutant emissions. However, because the stoves were only broadly introduced in August 2011, limited documented information exists of actual household fuel and stove use behaviors or the impact of those behaviors on emissions. During the 2011-2012 heating season (October–March), we evaluated stove use behavior in a small subset of ger households with either a traditional or an energy-efficient stove. Relying on a combination of in-person interviews and stove use monitor (SUM) technology, we observe that stove use behavior can vary substantially between households and identify three main burn cycles related to the use of the energy-efficient stove, which may impact the degree to which particulate matter (PM) emissions can be mitigated. We analyze the temperature data recorded by the SUMs from a convenience sample of 13 ger households with small Turkish (Ulzi) stoves and 4 households with traditional Mongolian stoves. We show that SUMs can potentially play a key role in identifying the frequency of ignition and refueling events and thus the impact user behavior can have on stove emissions. Our analysis reveals that household using small-Turkish stoves in our cohort use their stoves on average 2.5 times per day during the heating season (December 2011-February 2012). But, in a subset of these ger households, the small-Turkish stove use frequency can be as high as four stove use events per day, suggesting the occurrence of refueling events that may lead to increased PM emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Nitrogen Monitoring of West Hackberry 117 Cavern Wells

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) oil storage cavern West Hackberry 117 was tested under extended nitrogen monitoring following a successful mechanical integrity test in order to validate a newly developed hydrostatic column model to be used to differentiate between normal "tight" well behavior and small-leak behavior under nitrogen. High resolution wireline pressure and temperature data were collected during the test period and used in conjunction with the hydrostatic column model to predict the nitrogen/oil interface and the pressure along the entire fluid column from the bradenhead flange nominally at ground surface to bottom of brine pool. Results here and for other SPR caverns have shown that wells under long term nitrogen monitoring do not necessarily pressurize with a relative rate (P N2 /P brine) of 1. The theoretical relative pressure rate depends on the well configuration, pressure and the location of the nitrogen-oil interface and varies from well to well. For the case of WH117 the predicted rates were 0.73 for well A and 0.92 for well B. The measured relative pressurization rate for well B was consistent with the model prediction, while well A rate was found to be between 0.58-0.68. A number of possible reasons for the discrepancy between the model and measured rates of well A are possible. These include modeling inaccuracy, measurement inaccuracy or the possibility of the presence of a very small leak (below the latest calculated minimum detectable leak rate).

02 PETROLEUM↗

Overheating in Hot Water- and Steam-Heated Multifamily Buildings

In this project, the ARIES Building America team collected apartment temperature data from the archives of companies that provide energy management systems (EMS) to multifamily buildings in the Northeast U.S. Data was analyzed from more than 100 apartments in eighteen buildings where EMS systems were already installed to quantify the degree of overheating in an effort to answer the question, "What is the magnitude of apartment overheating in multifamily buildings with central hot water or steam heat?" This report provides valuable information to researchers, utility program managers and building owners interested in controlling heating energy waste and improving resident comfort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

On Line Enrichment Monitor (OLEM) UF 6 Tests for 1.5" Sch40 SS Pipe, Revision 1

As global uranium enrichment capacity under international safeguards expands, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is challenged to develop effective safeguards approaches at gaseous centrifuge enrichment plants while working within budgetary constraints. The “Model Safeguards Approach for Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants” (GCEPs) developed by the IAEA Division of Concepts and Planning in June 2006, defines the three primary Safeguards objectives to be the timely detection of: 1) diversion of significant quantities of natural (NU), depleted (DU) or low-enriched uranium (LEU) from declared plant flow, 2) facility misuse to produce undeclared LEU product from undeclared feed, and 3) facility misuse to produce enrichments higher than the declared maximum, in particular, highly enriched uranium (HEU). The ability to continuously and independently (i.e. with a minimum of information from the facility operator) monitor not only the uranium mass balance but also the 235 U mass balance in the facility could help support all three verification objectives described above. Two key capabilities required to achieve an independent and accurate material balance are 1) continuous, unattended monitoring of in-process UF 6 and 2) monitoring of cylinders entering and leaving the facility. The continuous monitoring of in-process UF 6 would rely on a combination of load-cell monitoring of the cylinders at the feed and withdrawal stations, online monitoring of gas enrichment, and a high-accuracy net weight measurement of the cylinder contents. The Online Enrichment Monitor (OLEM) is the instrument that would continuously measure the time-dependent relative uranium enrichment, E(t), in weight percent 235 U, of the gas filling or being withdrawn from the cylinders. The OLEM design concept combines gamma-ray spectrometry using a collimated NaI(Tl) detector with gas pressure and temperature data to calculate the enrichment of the UF 6 gas within the unit header pipe as a function of time. The OLEM components have been tested on ORNL UF 6 flow loop. Data were collected at five different enrichment levels (0.71%, 2.97%, 4.62%, 6.0%, and 93.7%) at several pressure conditions. The test data were collected in the standard OLEM N.4242 file format for each of the conditions with a 10-minute sampling period and then averaged over the span of constant pressures. Analysis of the collected data has provided enrichment constants that can be used for 1.5” stainless steel schedule 40 pipe measurement sites. The enrichment constant is consistent among all the wide range of enrichment levels and pressures used.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Development and Evaluation of Algorithms to Improve Small- and Medium-Size Commercial Building Operations

Small- and medium-sized (<100,000 sf) commercial buildings (SMBs) represent over 95% of the U.S. commercial building stock and consume over 60% of total site energy consumption. Many of these buildings use rudimentary controls that are mostly manual, with limited scheduling capability, no monitoring or failure management. Therefore, many of these buildings are operated inefficiently and consume excess energy. SMBs typically utilize packaged rooftop units (RTUs) that are controlled by an individual thermostat. There is increased urgency to improve the operating efficiency of existing commercial building stock in the U.S. for many reasons, chief among them is to mitigate the climate change impacts. Studies have shown that managing set points and schedules of the RTUs will result in up to 20% energy and cost savings. Another problem associated with RTUs is short-cycling, where an RTU goes through ON and OFF cycles too frequently. Excessive cycling can lead to excessive wear and lead to premature failure of the compressor or its components. The short cycling can result in a significantly decreased average efficiency (up to 10%), even if there are no physical failures in the equipment. Also, SMBs use a time-of-day scheduling is to start the RTUs before the building will be occupied and shut it off when unoccupied. Ensuring correct use of the zone set points and eliminating frequent cycling of RTUs thereby leading to persistent building operations can significantly increase the operational efficiency of the SMBs. A growing trend is to use low-cost control infrastructure that can enable scalable and cost-effective intelligent building operations. The work reported in this report describes three algorithms for detecting the zone set point temperature, RTU cycling rate and occupancy schedule detection that can be deployed on the low-cost infrastructure. These algorithms only require the zone temperature data for detection. The algorithms have been tested and validated using field data from a number of RTUs from six buildings in different climate locations. Overall, the algorithms were successful in detecting the set points and ON/OFF cycles accurately using the peak detection technique and occupancy schedule using symbolic aggregate approximation technique. The report describes the three algorithms, results from testing the algorithms using field data, how the algorithms can be used to improve SMBs efficiency, and presents related conclusions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Residential Indoor Temperature Study

In this study, we are adding to the body of knowledge around answering the question: What are good assumptions for HVAC set points in U.S. homes? We collected and analyzed indoor temperature data from US homes using funding from the U.S. Department of Energy's Building America (BA) program, due to the program's reliance on accurate energy simulation of homes. Simulations are used to set Building America goals, predict the impact of new building techniques and technologies, inform research objectives, evaluate home performance, optimize efficiency packages to meet savings goals, customize savings approaches to specific climate zones, and myriad other uses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Low Temperature Time-to-Explosion Experiments in the LLNL’s ODTX/P-ODTX System

Incidents caused by fire and some operations can heat energetic materials that may lead to thermal explosion and result in structural damage and casualty. Thus, explosive thermal sensitivity is an important topic for oilfield perforating operations and impacts perforating system performance and safety. Explosives have time-dependent temperature limits which can lead to thermal decomposition when exceeded and, under some circumstances, can result in performance losses and safety hazards. The One-Dimensional-Time to Explosion (ODTX) system at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been used for decades to characterize thermal safety of energetic materials. In this study, an integration of a pressure monitoring element has been added into the ODTX system (P-ODTX) to perform extended thermal experiments on HMX at three temperatures 160 °C, 170 °C and 185 °C. The tests generate time-temperature data as well as useful gas pressure data to assist with the thermal safety assessment of the energetics and systems that use the energetics. This report summarizes results of the 3 tests that were performed from July 2018 to November 2018.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗