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At least 883 records · Page 49

Coupling a Computational Fluid Dynamics Model to a Spacecraft Thermal System Model for the DraMS Instrument Thermal Analysis

The Dragonfly Mass Spectrometer (DraMS) is an instrument on the Dragonfly mission, which will spend 7 years in deep space cruise before landing and operating on the surface of Titan. Vacuum thermal analyses are required for deep space cruise, and convection analyses are required for the Titan surface operations. Model exchanges across multiple thermal teams are needed for all phases of the mission. For DraMS, Thermal Desktop® (TD) has been the main thermal analytical tool of choice due to its capability in modeling complex thermal systems with relatively low computational power and for its availability across thermal teams. However, TD does not have computational fluid dynamics (CFD) capability and struggles to accurately capture complex convective behavior. DraMS has fans operating in tandem and gas flow behaviors are not easily predicted due to its complex flow paths. CFD software, such as Fluent, can model and predict such complex flow behaviors, but CFD models are computationally expensive, and its workflow processes are not tailored towards simulating large and complex systems. Therefore, a coupled modeling approach was chosen for DraMS: A TD model was used for simulating all the conductive, radiative, and source terms, while a Fluent CFD model was added on, as needed, to the TD model to provide the convective boundary conditions using the System Coupling software. The coupling software allows the TD and Fluent models to communicate data and arrive at a co-solved and co-converged solution. Furthermore, Thermal Iso-value Exchange (TIE) method was developed to facilitate and improve the TD-Fluent data exchange process. This paper will discuss the analytical studies that were done to verify the accuracy and usability of the coupled approach and the challenges associated, which lead to the development of the TIE approach. DraMS thermal design and co-solved analysis results will also be discussed.

Heat transfer↗

Coupling a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Model to a Spacecraft Thermal System Model for the DraMS Instrument Thermal Analysis

The Dragonfly Mass Spectrometer (DraMS) is an instrument on the Dragonfly mission, which will spend 7 years in deep space cruise before landing and operating on the surface of Titan. Vacuum thermal analyses are required for deep space cruise, and convection analyses are required for the Titan surface operations. Model exchanges across multiple thermal teams are needed for all phases of the mission. For DraMS, Thermal Desktop (TD) has been the main thermal analytical tool of choice due to its capability in modeling complex thermal systems with relatively low computational power and for its availability across thermal teams. However, TD does not have computational fluid dynamics (CFD) capability and struggles to accurately capture complex convective behavior. DraMS has fans operating in tandem and gas flow behaviors are not easily predicted due to its complex flow paths. CFD software, such as Fluent, can model and predict such complex flow behaviors, but CFD models are computationally expensive, and its workflow processes are not tailored towards simulating large and complex systems. Therefore, a coupled modeling approach was chosen for DraMS: A TD model was used for simulating all the conductive, radiative, and source terms, while a Fluent CFD model was added on, as needed, to the TD model to provide the convective boundary conditions using the System Coupling software. The coupling software allows the TD and Fluent models to communicate data and arrive at a co-solved and co-converged solution. Furthermore, Thermal Iso-value Exchange (TIE) method was developed to facilitate and improve the TD-Fluent data exchange process. This paper will discuss the analytical studies that were done to verify the accuracy and usability of the coupled approach and the challenges associated, which lead to the development of the TIE approach. DraMS thermal design and co-solved analysis results will also be discussed.

heat transfer↗

Addressing Challenges to the Design & Test of Operational Lighting Environments for the International Space Station

In our day to day lives, the availability of light, with which to see our environment, is often taken for granted. The designers of land based lighting systems use sunlight and artificial light as their toolset. The availability of power, quantity of light sources, and variety of design options are often unlimited. The accessibility of most land based lighting systems makes it easy for the architect and engineer to verify and validate their design ideas. Failures with an implementation, while sometimes costly, can easily be addressed by renovation. Consider now, an architectural facility orbiting in space, 260 miles above the surface of the earth. This human rated architectural facility, the International Space Station (ISS) must maintain operations every day, including life support and appropriate human comforts without fail. The facility must also handle logistics of regular shipments of cargo, including new passengers. The ISS requires accommodations necessary for human control of machine systems. Additionally, the ISS is a research facility and supports investigations performed inside and outside its livable volume. Finally, the facility must support remote operations and observations by ground controllers. All of these architectural needs require a functional, safe, and even an aesthetic lighting environment. At Johnson Space Center, our Habitability and Human Factors team assists our diverse customers with their lighting environment challenges, via physical test and computer based analysis. Because of the complexity of ISS operational environment, our team has learned and developed processes that help ISS operate safely. Because of the dynamic exterior lighting environment, uses computational modeling to predict the lighting environment. The ISS' orbit exposes it to a sunrise every 90 minutes, causing work surfaces to quickly change from direct sunlight to earthshine to total darkness. Proper planning of vehicle approaches, robotics operations, and crewed Extra Vehicular Activities are mandatory to ensure safety to the crew and all others involved. Innovation in testing techniques is important as well. The advent of Solid State Lighting technology and the lack of stable national and international standards for its implementation pose new challenges on how to design, test and verify individual light fixtures and the environment that uses them. The ISS will soon be replacing its internal fluorescent lighting system to a solid state LED system. The Solid State Lighting Assembly will be used not only for general lighting, but also as a medical countermeasure to control the circadian rhythm of the crew. The new light source has performance criteria very specific to its spectral fingerprint, creating new challenges that were originally not as significant during the original design of the ISS. This presentation will showcase findings and toolsets our team is using to assist in the planning of tasks, and design of operational lighting environments on the International Space Station.

Clark, Toni A.↗

The NASA Low-Pressure Turbine Flow Physics Program

An overview of the NASA Lewis Low-Pressure Turbine (LPT) Flow Physics Program will be presented. The program was established in response to the aero-engine industry's need for improved LPT efficiency and designs. Modern jet engines have four to seven LPT stages, significantly contributing to engine weight. In addition, there is a significant efficiency degradation between takeoff and cruise conditions, of up to 2 points. Reducing the weight and part count of the LPT and minimizing the efficiency degradation will translate into fuel savings. Accurate prediction methods of LPT flows and losses are needed to accomplish those improvements. The flow in LPT passages is at low Reynolds number, and is dominated by interplay of three basic mechanisms: transition, separation and wake interaction. The affecting parameters traditionally considered are Reynolds number, freestream turbulence intensity, wake frequency parameter, and the pressure distribution (loading). Three-dimensional effects and additional parameters, particularly turbulence characteristics like length scales, spectra and other statistics, as well as wake turbulence intensity and properties also play a role. The flow of most interest is on the suction surface, where large losses are generated as the flow tends to separate at the low Reynolds numbers. Ignoring wakes, a common flow scenario, there is laminar separation, followed by transition on the separation bubble and turbulent reattachment. If transition starts earlier the separation will be eliminated and the boundary layer will be attached leading to the well known bypass transition issues. In contrast, transition over a separation bubble is closer to free shear layer transition and was not investigated as well, particularly in the turbine environment. Unsteadiness created by wakes complicates the picture. Wakes induce earlier transition, and the calmed regions trailing the induced turbulent spots can delay or eliminate separation via shear stress modification. Three-dimensional flow physics and geometry will have strong effects. Altogether a very complex and challenging problem emerges. The objective of the program is to provide improved models and physical understanding of the complex flow, which are essential for accurate prediction of flow and losses in the LPT. Experimental, computational and analytical work as complementing and augmenting approaches are used. The program involves industry, universities and research institutes, and other government laboratories. It is characterized by strong interaction among participants, quick dissemination of results, and responsiveness to industry's needs. The presentation will describe the work elements. Highlighting some activities in progress are experiments on simulated blade suction surface in low-speed wind tunnels, on curved wall, and on a flat-plate, both with pressure gradient. In the area of computation, assessment of existing models is performed using RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes) simulations. Laminar flow DNS was completed. Analytical studies of instability and receptivity in attached and separated flows were started. In the near future the program is moving to include wake effects and development of improved modeling. Experimental work in preparation stages are: (1) Addition of wakes to the curved tunnel experiment; (2) Low-speed rotating rig experiment on GE90 engine LPT; and (3) Transonic cascade. In the area of computation, it is expected to move from model assessment towards development of improved models. In addition, a new project of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of LPT is to begin and will provide numerical data bases. It is planned to implement the emerging improved models in a multistage turbomachinery code and to validate against the GE90 engine LPT.

Ashpis, David E.↗

Computational Study on the Effect of Thermal Boundary Conditions and Axial Aspect Ratio on Catalytic Oxidative Coupling of Methane

Packed-bed reactor models with a large reactor-diameter-to-particle-diameter ratio (N > 10) are commonly used in catalysis research. Their use is underpinned by strong simplifying assumptions including unidirectional plug flow, negligible radial gradients, small axial diffusion, and isothermal operation. However, the complex exothermic–endothermic nature of reactions like oxidative coupling of methane (OCM) coupled with heat transfer from the catalyst surface and convective heat losses from the reactor wall provides an interesting case study to evaluate packed-bed assumptions and understand axial and radial temperature variations that may impact conversion and selectivity. This computational study investigates the effect of thermal boundary conditions on catalyst performance in laboratory OCM reactors (N = ~13) through computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. Further, the 1-D model typically used for modeling plug flow reactors assumes negligible radial temperature and species concentration gradients. This assumption is evaluated for OCM reactors over a range of geometric axial aspect ratios, defined as the reactor length divided by the diameter, comparing the 1-D with 3-D CFD results. 1-D model predictions of catalyst performance start to deviate from the 3-D model predictions as the axial aspect ratio decreases, specifically as diameter increases at constant length. In the work, the 1-D model assumption is only found to be valid for axial aspect ratios higher than 1.6, a result considered to be relevant for all exothermic catalytic reactors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mesoscale Effects of Composition and Calendering in Lithium-Ion Battery Composite Electrodes

Macrohomogeneous battery models are widely used to predict battery performance, necessarily relying on effective electrode properties, such as specific surface area, tortuosity, and electrical conductivity. While these properties are typically estimated using ideal effective medium theories, in practice they exhibit highly non-ideal behaviors arising from their complex mesostructures. In this paper, we computationally reconstruct electrodes from X-ray computed tomography of 16 nickel–manganese–cobalt-oxide electrodes, manufactured using various material recipes and calendering pressures. Due to imaging limitations, a synthetic conductive binder domain (CBD) consisting of binder and conductive carbon is added to the reconstructions using a binder bridge algorithm. Reconstructed particle surface areas are significantly smaller than standard approximations predicted, as the majority of the particle surface area is covered by CBD, affecting electrochemical reaction availability. Finite element effective property simulations are performed on 320 large electrode subdomains to analyze trends and heterogeneity across the electrodes. Significant anisotropy of up to 27% in tortuosity and 47% in effective conductivity is observed. Electrical conductivity increases up to 7.5× with particle lithiation. We compare the results to traditional Bruggeman approximations and offer improved alternatives for use in cell-scale modeling, with Bruggeman exponents ranging from 1.62 to 1.72 rather than the theoretical value of 1.5. We also conclude that the CBD phase alone, rather than the entire solid phase, should be used to estimate effective electronic conductivity. This study provides insight into mesoscale transport phenomena and results in improved effective property approximations founded on realistic, image-based morphologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A holistic framework integrating plant-microbe-mineral regulation of soil bioavailable nitrogen

Abstract Soil organic nitrogen (N) is a critical resource for plants and microbes, but the processes that govern its cycle are not well-described. To promote a holistic understanding of soil N dynamics, we need an integrated model that links soil organic matter (SOM) cycling to bioavailable N in both unmanaged and managed landscapes, including agroecosystems. We present a framework that unifies recent conceptual advances in our understanding of three critical steps in bioavailable N cycling: organic N (ON) depolymerization and solubilization; bioavailable N sorption and desorption on mineral surfaces; and microbial ON turnover including assimilation, mineralization, and the recycling of microbial products. Consideration of the balance between these processes provides insight into the sources, sinks, and flux rates of bioavailable N. By accounting for interactions among the biological, physical, and chemical controls over ON and its availability to plants and microbes, our conceptual model unifies complex mechanisms of ON transformation in a concrete conceptual framework that is amenable to experimental testing and translates into ideas for new management practices. This framework will allow researchers and practitioners to use common measurements of particulate organic matter (POM) and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) to design strategic organic N-cycle interventions that optimize ecosystem productivity and minimize environmental N loss.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Integrated In-Situ Resource Utilization Modeling of a Lunar Water Processing System

A key element of achieving a sustained surface presence, such as defined in NASA’s Artemis plan, is In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). ISRU is the practice of using local resources to provide mission consumables that reduce system launch mass requirements, and regenerate resources (chiefly, water and oxygen) for propulsion and life support supporting both Lunar and Martian missions. ISRU systems require multiple complex processes, such as excavation, chemical reactors, and electrolysis subsystems that must operate in harmony to optimize the overall system process from beginning to end. The Mission Analysis and Integration Tool (MAIT) connects individual subsystem models into a customized, flexible framework for the purpose of technology downselect, optimization, and end-to-end process planning. MATLAB was favorable to use as the main software integration tool due to its ability to communicate with a vast number of other programming languages and makes up the backbone of data flow between inputs and outputs to the subsystem models. MAIT initially evaluated a suite of technologies, including but not limited to, the water processing Lunar Auger Dryer for ISRU (LADI) system and an oxygen extraction carbothermal reduction process. With individual models consolidated, the MAIT tool generated over 60,000 cases during its parametric sweeps; these system iterations produced valuable insight into the optimal LADI geometry for minimizing heater energy demands, estimating carbothermal reactor and radiator mass relationships, and calculated the power dynamics of the electrolysis unit. Efforts to update the MAIT tool are ongoing to accommodate and scale ISRU technologies supporting the Space Technology Mission Directorate’s (STMD) commercialization strategy, and increase the MAIT software capability to handle a wide array of ISRU system models beyond the Lunar environment, e.g. production of propellant for a Martian lander.

Avery Carlson↗

Probing liquid/liquid interfaces at and away from equilibrium using vibrational sum frequency generation

The self-assembly and transport of species at oil/aqueous interfaces represent key mechanistic steps in processes spanning from liquid extraction to soft-matter neuromorphic electrical devices. While technologically and fundamentally important, there is a notable lack of chemical understanding regarding these buried interfaces due to challenges in differentiating species located at the surface from the nearby bulk phases. In this work, we will describe some of the challenges in probing chemistry at these liquid/liquid interfaces and detail the approaches we have developed using vibrational sum frequency generation to enable studies of these complex interfaces at and away from equilibrium. From these spectroscopic developments, new insight into solvation, ion pairing, aggregation, complexation, and transport will be discussed in the context of solvent extraction chemistry. Notably, we show how the presence of both oil and aqueous phases provides an environment to drive fundamentally different phenomena from what is observed at model air/aqueous interfaces. This difference arises from key differences in solvation and bulk populations that feedback onto the surface to drive emergent and often functional molecular assemblies.

Doughty, Benjamin L↗

In situ measurement of three-dimensional intergranular stress localizations and grain yielding under elastoplastic axial-torsional loading

The three-dimensional grain-averaged response of solid bar samples under non-proportional (NP) elastoplastic axial-torsional loading was investigated using in situ high energy diffraction microscopy (HEDM) and companion crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) modeling. Important stress metrics including applied shear (σ θZ ) and axial (σ ZZ ) stress tensor components, stress and stress deviator tensor invariants (I 1 , J 2 , and J 3 ), von Mises equivalent stress (σ$^{grain}_{VM}$), maximum resolved shear stress (mRSS), stress triaxiality (η), and lode angle parameter ($\barθ$) values were tracked for ~300 grains under two different loading conditions: (1) Torsion-dominated loading (low NP) and (2) Tension-torsion loading (high NP) in equiatomic NiCoCr, a representative multicomponent face-centered cubic (FCC) superalloy. Overall, significant stress localizations existed within both samples as evidenced by the radial dependence of grain-resolved σ θZ , σ$^{grain}_{VM}$, and J 2 ; by comparison, I 1 , J 3 , η, and $\barθ$ metrics did not show discernible trends within the volume. These stress localizations reveal a complex interplay between axial and shear stress components (e.g., stress coupling) resulting in grain yielding near the sample surface largely driven by shear stress, whereas internal grain yielding was largely accommodated by axial stress. Grain-resolved stress localization trends were described well by the CPFE model, although some discrepancies in magnitude occurred, particularly for volumetric stress metrics (I 1 and η) due to initial type II residual stress distributions. The superposition of initial residual stress states onto CPFE grain-resolved data significantly improved model accuracy for η. This suggests that residual stresses more strongly influence the simulation of volumetric rather than deviatoric (yield) stress metrics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Application of Powder Diffraction Methods to the Analysis of the Atomic Structure of Nanocrystals: The Concept of the Apparent Lattice Parameter (ALP)

The applicability of standard methods of elaboration of powder diffraction data for determination of the structure of nano-size crystallites is analysed. Based on our theoretical calculations of powder diffraction data we show, that the assumption of the infinite crystal lattice for nanocrystals smaller than 20 nm in size is not justified. Application of conventional tools developed for elaboration of powder diffraction data, like the Rietveld method, may lead to erroneous interpretation of the experimental results. An alternate evaluation of diffraction data of nanoparticles, based on the so-called 'apparent lattice parameter' (alp) is introduced. We assume a model of nanocrystal having a grain core with well-defined crystal structure, surrounded by a surface shell with the atomic structure similar to that of the core but being under a strain (compressive or tensile). The two structural components, the core and the shell, form essentially a composite crystal with interfering, inseparable diffraction properties. Because the structure of such a nanocrystal is not uniform, it defies the basic definitions of an unambiguous crystallographic phase. Consequently, a set of lattice parameters used for characterization of simple crystal phases is insufficient for a proper description of the complex structure of nanocrystals. We developed a method of evaluation of powder diffraction data of nanocrystals, which refers to a core-shell model and is based on the 'apparent lattice parameter' methodology. For a given diffraction pattem, the alp values are calculated for every individual Bragg reflection. For nanocrystals the alp values depend on the diffraction vector Q. By modeling different a0tomic structures of nanocrystals and calculating theoretically corresponding diffraction patterns using the Debye functions we showed, that alp-Q plots show characteristic shapes which can be used for evaluation of the atomic structure of the core-shell system. We show, that using a simple model of a nanocrystal with spherical shape and centro-symmetric strain at the surface shell we obtain theoretical alp-Q values which match very well the alp-Q plots determined experimentally for Sic, GaN, and diamond nanopowders. The theoretical models are defined by the lattice parameter of the grain core, thickness of the surface shell, and the magnitude and distribution of the strain field in the surface shell. According to our calculations, the part of the diffraction pattern measured at relatively low diffraction vectors Q (below 10/angstrom) provides information on the surface strain, whle determination of the lattice parameters in the grain core requires measurements at large Q-values (above 15 - 20/angstrom).

Palosz, B.↗

Discovering CO Adsorption and Desorption Pathways from Chemical Reaction Neural Network Modeling of Transient Kinetics Spectroscopy

Here, we demonstrate a data-driven approach to interpreting surface reactions by combining time-resolved gas pulsing infrared spectroscopy with chemical reaction neural networks (CRNNs). Using CO adsorption and desorption on Pd(111) at 460–490 K as a model system, we show how transient kinetic data can reveal detailed reaction mechanisms. Starting with a simple one-species model, we systematically evaluate increasingly complex mechanisms involving hollow and bridge site adsorption. Despite the similar goodness of fit to the same experimental absorbance data, our models predict distinct coverage dynamics for different adsorption sites. Through analysis of spectral peak stability and predicted dynamics, we identify a mechanism in which CO primarily adsorbs on bridge sites followed by rapid conversion to hollow sites as being the most physically consistent with experimental observations. This work provides a framework for extracting mechanistic insights from limited experimental data, demonstrating how machine learning can bridge the gap between transient kinetic measurements and a molecular-level understanding of surface reactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The simulation of 3D hypervelocity spallation using a hydrocode PAGOSA with FLIP+MPM

n this work, a hydrocode PAGOSA with FLIP+MPM is presented and exercised to investigate the fracture in ductile material. The merit of PAGOSA with FLIP+MPM to solve the advection problem is first illustrated by a solid piston periodically moving in a sealed tube with air. Furthermore, the ability of PAGOSA with FLIP+MPM to capture the fracture in material is shown by a simple stretching fracture in ductile material. In both of two benchmark problems, the PAGOSA results and analytical solutions are also presented for comparison. Then PAGOSA with FLIP+MPM is used to model complex spall in ductile material, which is a challenging problem in engineering applications. The convergences of PAGOSA with FLIP+MPM—based on both the mesh size and the marker density—are investigated by monitoring free surface velocity. To further show the ability of PAGOSA with FLIP+MPM to predict fracture in ductile material, the numerical results are compared with the experimental results and other published numerical results. Moreover, the effect of the spall parameter in PAGOSA with FLIP+MPM on the numerical simulation is also analyzed by investigating the free surface velocity. Finally, the effects of the peak compressive stress, the tensile strain rate, and the loading rate on the spallation are further investigated. The numerical results show that PAGOSA with FLIP+MPM can improve PAGOSA's performance when applied to predicting fracture in ductile materials, and is robust enough to accurately predict spall fracture in ductile materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simple and Accurate One-Body Energy and Dipole Moment Surfaces for Water and Beyond

Water is often the testing ground for new, advanced force fields. While advanced functional forms for intermolecular interactions have been integral to the development of accurate water models, less attention has been paid to a transferable model for intramolecular valence terms. In this work, we present a one-body energy and dipole moment surface model, named 1B-UCB, that is simple yet accurate and can be feasibly adapted for both standard and advanced potentials. 1B-UCB for water is comparable in accuracy to those with much more complex functional forms, despite having drastically fewer parameters. The parametrization protocol has been implemented as part of the Q-Force automated workflow and requires only a quantum mechanical Hessian calculation as reference data, hence allowing it to be easily extended to a variety of molecular systems beyond water, which we demonstrate on a selection of small molecules with different symmetries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Distinct roles of land cover in regulating spatial variabilities of temperature responses to radiative effects of aerosols and clouds

Surface temperature responses to radiative perturbations due to aerosols and clouds are complicated by the land surface properties. To disentangle these complexities, this study, from a terrestrial surface energy budget perspective, isolates the underlying biophysical processes from the instantaneous radiative effects of aerosols and clouds on surface temperature using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1.2.1. It is found that in comparison with the global heterogeneous distributions of instantaneous radiative perturbations at the surface induced by aerosols and clouds, the spatial variations of the corresponding surface temperature responses to aerosol direct radiative effects (DRE) during the daytime and cloud radiative effects (CRE) during the nighttime are amplified. It is because of the consistent global distribution of the local surface climate sensitivity (a function of land cover properties such as surface roughness and Bowen ratio) with those of daytime DRE and nighttime CRE. By applying identical anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions over eight major past, present and projected future anthropogenic aerosol emitting regions (i.e. Brazil, China, East Africa, India, Indonesia, South Africa, United States and Western Europe), surface temperature responses to aerosol radiative cooling in the daytime and cloud radiative warming in the nighttime over these regions positively regulated by local surface climate sensitivities are prominent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mauka Energy FEVER Tool Dataset

Mauka Energy’s dataset, developed under the Forestry Electric Vehicle Energy Routing (FEVER) project and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Small Business Innovation Research program, is a high-resolution geospatial resource designed to support energy modeling for electric log trucks in complex forestry environments. The dataset integrates detailed spatial and road network data to enable accurate simulation of vehicle performance across varied terrain. At its core, the dataset incorporates lidar-derived elevation models, road alignments, and surface classifications from Oregon State University’s McDonald-Dunn Research Forest. These data capture fine-scale variations in slope, curvature, and surface conditions across forest road systems, allowing for vehicle-level analysis of energy consumption and recovery. The dataset also includes data collected on the surrounding public and private road networks in Benton County, Oregon, used in real-world haul routes. These connecting segments provide critical context for modeling transitions between forest operations and regional transportation infrastructure, incorporating attributes such as grade profiles, elevation change, and speed constraints. This combined dataset underpins the development of Mauka Energy’s rolldown tool, which quantifies energy use and regenerative braking potential on downhill and variable-grade segments. By leveraging high-resolution terrain and road data, the FEVER project enables more accurate assessment of electric vehicle feasibility and performance in forestry applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Improve wildfire predictability driven by extreme water cycle with interpretable physically-guided ML/AI

Focal Area(s): Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (Primary); insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics or knowledge-guided AI (Secondary). Science Challenge: Wildfires modify land surface characteristics, such as vegetation composition, soil and litter carbon stocks, and surface albedo, with significant consequences for the regional carbon cycle. For example, tropical regions (i.e., African and South America) are particularly vulnerable to wildfire, account for more than 80% of the global burned area, and emit ~1.4 PgC y -1 into the atmosphere together with other dust and aerosols that strongly affect regional climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗