Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistical techniques”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 883 records · Page 49

Discovering Active Subspaces for High-Dimensional Computer Models

Dimension reduction techniques have long been an important topic in statistics, and active subspaces (AS) have received much attention this past decade in the computer experiments literature. The most common approach towards estimating the AS is to use Monte Carlo with numerical gradient evaluation. While sensible in some settings, this approach has obvious drawbacks. Recent research has demonstrated that active subspace calculations can be obtained in closed form, conditional on a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate, which can be limiting in high-dimensional settings for computational reasons. In this paper, we produce the relevant calculations for a more general case when the model of interest is a linear combination of tensor products. These general equations can be applied to the GP, recovering previous results as a special case, or applied to the models constructed by other regression techniques including multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Furthermore, using a MARS surrogate has many advantages including improved scaling, better estimation of active subspaces in high dimensions and the ability to handle a large number of prior distributions in closed form. In one real-world example, we obtain the active subspace of a radiation-transport code with 240 inputs and 9,372 model runs in under half an hour.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Leveraging interpolation models and error bounds for verifiable scientific machine learning

Effective verification and validation techniques for modern scientific machine learning workflows are challenging to devise. Statistical methods are abundant and easily deployed, but often rely on speculative assumptions about the data and methods involved. Error bounds for classical interpolation techniques can provide mathematically rigorous estimates of accuracy, but often are difficult or impractical to determine computationally. Here, in this work, we present a best-of-both-worlds approach to verifiable scientific machine learning by demonstrating that (1) multiple standard interpolation techniques have informative error bounds that can be computed or estimated efficiently; (2) comparative performance among distinct interpolants can aid in validation goals; (3) deploying interpolation methods on latent spaces generated by deep learning techniques enables some interpretability for black-box models. We present a detailed case study of our approach for predicting lift-drag ratios from airfoil images. Code developed for this work is available in a public Github repository.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Combining Fractional Calorimetry with Statistical Methods to Characterize Thermal Runaway

Fractional thermal runaway calorimetry (FTRC) techniques were introduced to examine thermal runaway (TR) behavior of lithium-ion (Li-ion) cells. Specifically, FTRC considers the total energy released vs. the fraction of the total energy that is released through the cell casing vs. through the ejecta material. This device has been expanded to universally support FTRC testing of additional cell types including 21700-format, D-Cell format, and large prismatic format Li-ion cells. The TR behavior as influenced by cell format, manufacturer, chemistry, capacity, and in situ safety features are described in this presentation.

Walker, William↗

Measurements of Turbulent Flow Field in Separate Flow Nozzles with Enhanced Mixing Devices - Test Report

As part of the Advanced Subsonic Technology Program, a series of experiments was conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center on the effect of mixing enhancement devices on the aeroacoustic performance of separate flow nozzles. Initial acoustic evaluations of the devices showed that they reduced jet noise significantly, while creating very little thrust loss. The explanation for the improvement required that turbulence measurements, namely single point mean and RMS statistics and two-point spatial correlations, be made to determine the change in the turbulence caused by the mixing enhancement devices that lead to the noise reduction. These measurements were made in the summer of 2000 in a test program called Separate Nozzle Flow Test 2000 (SFNT2K) supported by the Aeropropulsion Research Program at NASA Glenn Research Center. Given the hot high-speed flows representative of a contemporary bypass ratio 5 turbofan engine, unsteady flow field measurements required the use of an optical measurement method. To achieve the spatial correlations, the Particle Image Velocimetry technique was employed, acquiring high-density velocity maps of the flows from which the required statistics could be derived. This was the first successful use of this technique for such flows, and shows the utility of this technique for future experimental programs. The extensive statistics obtained were likewise unique and give great insight into the turbulence which produces noise and how the turbulence can be modified to reduce jet noise.

Bridges, James↗

The DESI N -body Simulation Project – II. Suppressing sample variance with fast simulations

ABSTRACT Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will construct a large and precise three-dimensional map of our Universe. The survey effective volume reaches $\sim 20\, h^{-3}\, \mathrm{Gpc}^{3}$. It is a great challenge to prepare high-resolution simulations with a much larger volume for validating the DESI analysis pipelines. AbacusSummit is a suite of high-resolution dark-matter-only simulations designed for this purpose, with $200\, h^{-3}\, \mathrm{Gpc}^{3}$ (10 times DESI volume) for the base cosmology. However, further efforts need to be done to provide a more precise analysis of the data and to cover also other cosmologies. Recently, the CARPool method was proposed to use paired accurate and approximate simulations to achieve high statistical precision with a limited number of high-resolution simulations. Relying on this technique, we propose to use fast quasi-N-body solvers combined with accurate simulations to produce accurate summary statistics. This enables us to obtain 100 times smaller variance than the expected DESI statistical variance at the scales we are interested in, e.g. $k \lt 0.3\, h\, \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ for the halo power spectrum. In addition, it can significantly suppress the sample variance of the halo bispectrum. We further generalize the method for other cosmologies with only one realization in AbacusSummit suite to extend the effective volume ∼20 times. In summary, our proposed strategy of combining high-fidelity simulations with fast approximate gravity solvers and a series of variance suppression techniques sets the path for a robust cosmological analysis of galaxy survey data.

cosmology: theory↗

Data-driven Mori–Zwanzig modeling of Lagrangian particle dynamics in turbulent flows

The dynamics of Lagrangian particles in turbulence play a crucial role in mixing, transport, and dispersion in complex flows. Their trajectories exhibit highly nontrivial statistical behavior, motivating the development of surrogate models that can reproduce these trajectories without incurring the high computational cost of direct numerical simulations of the full Eulerian field. This task is particularly challenging because reduced-order models typically lack access to the full set of interactions with the underlying turbulent field. Novel data-driven machine learning techniques can be powerful in capturing and reproducing complex statistics of the reduced-order/surrogate dynamics. In this work, we show how one can learn a surrogate dynamical system that is able to evolve a turbulent Lagrangian trajectory in a way that is point-wise accurate for short-time predictions (with respect to Kolmogorov time) and stable and statistically accurate at long times. This approach is based on the Mori–Zwanzig formalism, which prescribes a mathematical decomposition of the full dynamical system into resolved dynamics that depend on the current state and the past history of a reduced set of observables, and the unresolved orthogonal dynamics due to unresolved degrees of freedom of the initial state. We show how by training this reduced order model on a point-wise error metric on short time-prediction, we are able to correctly learn the dynamics of Lagrangian turbulence, such that also the long-time statistical behavior is stably recovered at test time. This opens up a range of applications, for example, for the control of active Lagrangian agents in turbulence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multiscale Modeling of Intergranular Fracture in Aluminum: Constitutive Relation For Interface Debonding

Intergranular fracture is a dominant mode of failure in ultrafine grained materials. In the present study, the atomistic mechanisms of grain-boundary debonding during intergranular fracture in aluminum are modeled using a coupled molecular dynamics finite element simulation. Using a statistical mechanics approach, a cohesive-zone law in the form of a traction-displacement constitutive relationship, characterizing the load transfer across the plane of a growing edge crack, is extracted from atomistic simulations and then recast in a form suitable for inclusion within a continuum finite element model. The cohesive-zone law derived by the presented technique is free of finite size effects and is statistically representative for describing the interfacial debonding of a grain boundary (GB) interface examined at atomic length scales. By incorporating the cohesive-zone law in cohesive-zone finite elements, the debonding of a GB interface can be simulated in a coupled continuum-atomistic model, in which a crack starts in the continuum environment, smoothly penetrates the continuum-atomistic interface, and continues its propagation in the atomistic environment. This study is a step towards relating atomistically derived decohesion laws to macroscopic predictions of fracture and constructing multiscale models for nanocrystalline and ultrafine grained materials.

Yamakov, V.↗

Procedure for Adapting Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Meshes

A technique is presented for adapting computational meshes used in the G2 version of the direct simulation Monte Carlo method. The physical ideas underlying the technique are discussed, and adaptation formulas are developed for use on solutions generated from an initial mesh. The effect of statistical scatter on adaptation is addressed, and results demonstrate the ability of this technique to achieve more accurate results without increasing necessary computational resources.

Woronowicz, Michael S.↗

Numerical turbulence modeling

The underlying bases and developments in two techniques of detailed turbulence modeling are described where the flow is treated in the Eulerian sense, and one technique where the Lagrangian motions of vortices are followed. First, a technique is described for solving the single-point statistically averaged conservation equations. The Reynolds stresses that appear in these equations are evaluated by solving supplemental differential equations which contain terms that are modeled. A sequence of increasingly complex, but also increasingly general, modeling equations is described and computations based on these equations are compared with experimental data. The hierarchy of models described terminates with equations for the individual components of the Reynolds stress tensor. The second Eulerian technique approach to turbulence modeling is the direct numerical simulation of turbulent fields. In this approach, all three dimensional eddies between a predetermined range of sizes are computed in time within a specified volume of flow. Present day computers require a tradeoff between the size of the volume that can be considered and the degree of resolution of the turbulent eddies. Techniques of modeling the smallest eddies are described that permit enlarging the volume, or Reynolds number, that can be considered.

Rubesin, M. W.↗

Evaluation of analysis techniques for low frequency interior noise and vibration of commercial aircraft

The application of selected analysis techniques to low frequency cabin noise associated with advanced propeller engine installations is evaluated. Three design analysis techniques were chosen for evaluation including finite element analysis, statistical energy analysis (SEA), and a power flow method using element of SEA (computer program Propeller Aircraft Interior Noise). An overview of the three procedures is provided. Data from tests of a 727 airplane (modified to accept a propeller engine) were used to compare with predictions. Comparisons of predicted and measured levels at the end of the first year's effort showed reasonable agreement leading to the conclusion that each technique had value for propeller engine noise predictions on large commercial transports. However, variations in agreement were large enough to remain cautious and to lead to recommendations for further work with each technique. Assessment of the second year's results leads to the conclusion that the selected techniques can accurately predict trends and can be useful to a designer, but that absolute level predictions remain unreliable due to complexity of the aircraft structure and low modal densities.

Landmann, A. E.↗

Bottom-Up Meets Top-Down: The Crossroads of Multiscale Chromatin Modeling

Chromatin can be viewed as a hierarchically structured fiber that regulates gene expression. It consists of a complex network of DNA and proteins whose characteristic dynamical modes facilitate compaction and rearrangement in the cell nucleus. These modes stem from chromatin's fundamental unit, the nucleosome, and their effects are propagated across length scales. Understanding the effects of nucleosome dynamics on the chromatin fiber, primarily through post-translational modifications that occur on the histones, is of central importance to epigenetics. Within the last decade, imaging and chromosome conformation capture techniques have revealed a number of structural and statistical features of the packaged chromatin fiber at a hitherto unavailable level of resolution. Such experiments have led to increased efforts to develop polymer models that aim to reproduce, explain, and predict the contact probability scaling and density heterogeneity. At nanometer scales, available models have focused on the role of the nucleosome and epigenetic marks on local chromatin structure. At micrometer scales, existing models have sought to explain scaling laws and density heterogeneity. Less work, however, has been done to reconcile these two approaches: bottom-up and top-down models of chromatin. Here, we highlight the multiscale simulation models that are driving toward an understanding of chromatin structure and function, from the nanometer to the micron scale, and we highlight areas of opportunity and some of the prospects for new frameworks that bridge these two scales. Taken together, experimental and modeling advances over the last few years have established a robust platform for the study of chromatin fiber structure and dynamics, which will be of considerable use to the chromatin community in developing an understanding of the interplay between epigenomic regulation and molecular structure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Reliable statistics-based detection and investigation of anomalies in a SMART valve system

Reliable anomaly detection and diagnosis are critical for the safe operation of complex engineered systems. This study presents a unified framework that integrates statistical, model-based, and data-driven techniques for anomaly detection and investigation, demonstrated on SMART valve systems in hybrid energy applications. Four detection methods—mean deviation, seasonal extreme studentized deviate, ARIMA forecasting, and matrix profiling—were implemented and compared. Matrix profiling was particularly effective in revealing subtle deviations and hidden relationships among variables. Anomaly investigation was performed by analyzing variable-level and grouped signal profiles, with system topology incorporated to distinguish primary faults from propagated effects. Grouping signals by type enhanced interpretability, enabling accurate localization of anomalies across multi-dimensional datasets. Experimental results confirmed the framework's capability to consistently detect and isolate anomalies while providing actionable insights into system interdependencies. The proposed methodology offers a robust, interpretable, and scalable solution for condition monitoring, with potential applications in safety-critical domains such as nuclear energy, aerospace, and process industries.

ARIMA models↗

Exploring physics of ferroelectric domain walls via Bayesian analysis of atomically resolved STEM data

The physics of ferroelectric domain walls is explored using the Bayesian inference analysis of atomically resolved STEM data. We demonstrate that domain wall profile shapes are ultimately sensitive to the nature of the order parameter in the material, including the functional form of Ginzburg-Landau-Devonshire expansion, and numerical value of the corresponding parameters. The preexisting materials knowledge naturally folds in the Bayesian framework in the form of prior distributions, with the different order parameters forming competing (or hierarchical) models. Here, we explore the physics of the ferroelectric domain walls in BiFeO 3 using this method, and derive the posterior estimates of relevant parameters. More generally, this inference approach both allows learning materials physics from experimental data with associated uncertainty quantification, and establishing guidelines for instrumental development answering questions on what resolution and information limits are necessary for reliable observation of specific physical mechanisms of interest.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

VarIabiLity seLection of AstrophysIcal sources iN PTF (VILLAIN): I. Structure function fits to 71 million objects

Light-curve variability is well-suited to characterizing objects in surveys with high cadence and a long baseline. This is especially relevant in view of the large datasets to be produced by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We aim to determine variability parameters for objects in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) and explore differences between quasars (QSOs), stars, and galaxies. We relate variability and colour information in preparation for future surveys. We fit joint likelihoods to structure functions (SFs) of 71 million PTF light curves with a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. For each object, we assume a power-law SF and extract two parameters: the amplitude on timescales of one year, A, and a power-law index, γ. With these parameters and colours in the optical (Pan-STARRS1) and mid-infrared (WISE), we identify regions of parameter space dominated by different types of spectroscopically confirmed objects from SDSS. Candidate QSOs, stars, and galaxies are selected to show their parameter distributions. QSOs show high-amplitude variations in the R band, and the highest γ values. Galaxies have a broader range of amplitudes and their variability shows relatively little dependency on timescale. With variability and colours, we achieve a photometric selection purity of 99.3% for QSOs. Even though hard cuts in monochromatic variability alone are not as effective as seven-band magnitude cuts, variability is useful in characterizing object subclasses. Through variability, we also find QSOs that were erroneously classified as stars in the SDSS. We discuss perspectives and computational solutions in view of the upcoming LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Concordance

Dimension reduction techniques have long been an important topic in statistics, and active subspaces (AS) have received much attention this past decade in the computer experiments literature. The most common approach towards estimating the AS is to use Monte Carlo with numerical gradient evaluation. This software takes a new approach towards estimating the active subspace, in which Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is used as a surrogate model, and relevant calculation are obtained analytically. Using a MARS surrogate has many advantages including improved scaling, better estimation of active subspaces in high dimensions and the ability to handle a large number of prior distributions in closed form. This software is also capable of conducting a so-called "concordance analysis", using a generalization of ASs which we refer to as "Co-Active" subspaces.

Rumsey, Kelin↗

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of data driven low-rank matrix factorization for accelerated solutions of the Vlasov equation

Low-rank methods have shown success in accelerating simulations of a collisionless plasma described by the Vlasov equation, but still rely on computationally costly linear algebra every time step. We propose a data-driven factorization method using artificial neural networks, specifically with convolutional layer architecture, that trains on existing simulation data. At inference time, the model outputs a low-rank decomposition of the distribution field of the charged particles, and we demonstrate that this step is faster than the standard linear algebra technique. Numerical experiments show that the method achieves comparable reconstruction accuracy for interpolation tasks, generalizing to unseen test data in a manner beyond just memorizing training data; patterns in factorization also inherently followed the same numerical trend as those within algebraic methods (e.g., truncated singular-value decomposition). However, when training on the first 70% of a time-series data and testing on the remaining 30%, the method fails to meaningfully extrapolate. Despite this limiting result, the technique may have benefits for simulations in a statistical steady-state or otherwise showing temporal stability. These results suggest that while the model offers a computationally efficient alternative for datasets with temporal stability, its current formulation is best suited for interpolation rather than for predicting future states in time-evolving systems. This study thus lays the groundwork for further refinement of neural network-based approaches to low-rank matrix factorization in high-dimensional plasma simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantifying Uncertainties of Microscopic Nuclear Theories

The goal of this project was to produce modernized nuclear data libraries of light ion fusion reactions and actinide fission product yields. Such libraries are essential input in both stockpile science but also fundamental science (nucleosynthesis, superheavy nuclei). When such libraries are used to model complex processes involving exotic, very short-lived nuclei that have not been measured experimentally, the underlying nuclear data come from theoretical models, the predictive power of which needs to be quantified, together with its uncertainties. By teaming up nuclear theorists and statisticians, we built comprehensive theoretical frameworks based on the most fundamental theories of fusion and fission that we coupled for the first time with a Bayesian framework with machine learning techniques for uncertainty quantification. Our results include: (1) statistical emulators for neutron-alpha scattering, and the fission product mass yields of neutron-induced fission of 239 Pu, which will enable developers to generate random realizations of the corresponding data for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in applications; (2) the first complete and most accurate ab initio prediction of the S-factor for proton capture on 7 Be, which – combined with UQ – may become the recommended value at solar energies in the next review of solar fusion cross sections; (3) statistical emulators for fission mass yields in the neutron-induced fission of 239 Pu; (4) the first quantification of how uncertainties in nuclear forces impact fission properties that are relevant in nucleosynthesis simulations to explain how heavy elements are formed in the Cosmos.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗