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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flux Comparison of Master-8 and Ordem 3.1 Modelled Space Debris Population

With ESA’s Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER-8) model and NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model(ORDEM) 3.1, the two premier orbital debris engineering models have been officially released. The two models come with significant enhancements and now represent state-of-the-art orbital debris modelling for their respective agencies. Both models provide the community with estimates of the space debris environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) up to at least geostationary altitude. The MASTER population is an event-based simulation of all known events that generate debris and objects that are part of the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage of objects with diameters down to approximately 10cm in LEO and 1 m in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Different models are used to simulate the artificial objects and their orbit evolution over time. These models are called “sources” since they assign an origin to each individual object and consist of fragments, solid rocket motor (SRM) remainders, sodium-potassium(NaK) droplets, paintflakes, ejecta, and multi-layer insulation (MLI) fragments. The objects from each source are characterized by having individual release mechanisms, as well as orbital distributions, material composition, size, and mass distributions. Dedicated radar and telescope observation data is used to calibrate the model for objects larger than 1 cm in LEO and larger than 10 cm in GEO. For calibrating the small-sized objects, below 1 cm, impact data from returned surfaces are analyzed. Because the >1cm object population is dominated by fragments, the fragmentation event database was updated to include new events, as well as re-evaluate past events. Special attention was drawn to re-evaluating theFengyun-1C anti-satellite test from 2007 and Cosmos-Iridium collision event from 2009 since these events shape the fragment population because of their severity. After 2009, the two largest fragmentations in terms of number of tracked debris are the Briz-M explosion in 2012 and the NOAA-16explosion in 2015. In total, there are 261 confirmed fragmentations in the database up to November 2016.The baseline population for ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. SSN catalog, and observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller size regions. These regions are not well-covered by the SSN catalog yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments greater than 1mm from collisions and explosions, and these fragment populations are scaled using ground-based radar data. Specific major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as NaK droplets, were re-examined, modelled, and added to the ORDEM environment separately. Optical measurement data is used to model the GEO population down to 10 cm. The debris environment is propagated using NASA’s LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model, and future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically. The environment from a few millimetres down to 10 𝜇m is modelled using a special degradation model where small particles are generated from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, then the populations are scaled to fit in situ cratering data from Space Shuttle returned surfaces. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to upper stages and spacecraft. This paper will discuss the MASTER and ORDEM approaches for modelling populations and compare fluxes for specific orbits, including sun-synchronous, ISS-altitude, geosynchronous transfer, and GEO. In the end, a conclusion is drawn towards the importance of having multiple fundamentally different, yet validated, models to estimate the space debris population.

Andre Horstmann↗
NASA NTRS1978

Closed loop models for analyzing the effects of simulator characteristics

The optimal control model (OCM) of the human operator is used to develop closed-loop models for analyzing the effects of (digital) simulator characteristics on predicted performance and/or workload. Two approaches are considered: the first utilizes a continuous approximation to the discrete simulation in conjunction with the standard optimal control model; the second involves a more exact discrete description of the simulator in a closed-loop multi-rate simulation in which the optimal control model 'simulates' the pilot. Both models predict that simulator characteristics can have significant effects on performance and workload.

Baron, S.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Closed loop models for analyzing the effects of simulator characteristics

The optimal control model of the human operator is used to develop closed loop models for analyzing the effects of (digital) simulator characteristics on predicted performance and/or workload. Two approaches are considered: the first utilizes a continuous approximation to the discrete simulation in conjunction with the standard optimal control model; the second involves a more exact discrete description of the simulator in a closed loop multirate simulation in which the optimal control model simulates the pilot. Both models predict that simulator characteristics can have significant effects on performance and workload.

Baron, S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Distributed reacceleration of cosmic rays

We develop a model in which cosmic rays, in addition to their initial acceleration by a strong shock, are continuously reaccelerated (e.g., by weak shocks) while propagating through the galaxy. The equations describing this acceleration scheme are solved analytically (approximating ionization losses by a cutoff) and numerically. Solutions for the spectra of primary and secondary cosmic rays are given in a closed analytic form, and they allow a rapid search in parameter space for viable propagation models with distributed reacceleration included. The observed boron-to-carbon ratio can be reproduced by the reacceleration theory over a range of escape parameters, some of them quite different from the standard "leaky box" model. It is also shown that even a very modest amount of reacceleration by strong shocks causes the boron-to carbon ratio to level off at sufficiently high energies, and this effect may be observed in the CRNE data. Several other curiosities in the data may be explained naturally if a modest amount of distributed reacceleration is invoked, including (a) the apparent truncation at low energy in the otherwise exponential pathlength distribution associated with the leaky box model, (b) the sub-iron isotopic anomalies and other effects noted by Silberberg et al., and (c) the discrepancy between the reported 10Be lifetime and the lifetime of cosmic rays in the dense strata of the galactic disk.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS2009

Regression Model Optimization for the Analysis of Experimental Data

A candidate math model search algorithm was developed at Ames Research Center that determines a recommended math model for the multivariate regression analysis of experimental data. The search algorithm is applicable to classical regression analysis problems as well as wind tunnel strain gage balance calibration analysis applications. The algorithm compares the predictive capability of different regression models using the standard deviation of the PRESS residuals of the responses as a search metric. This search metric is minimized during the search. Singular value decomposition is used during the search to reject math models that lead to a singular solution of the regression analysis problem. Two threshold dependent constraints are also applied. The first constraint rejects math models with insignificant terms. The second constraint rejects math models with near-linear dependencies between terms. The math term hierarchy rule may also be applied as an optional constraint during or after the candidate math model search. The final term selection of the recommended math model depends on the regressor and response values of the data set, the user s function class combination choice, the user s constraint selections, and the result of the search metric minimization. A frequently used regression analysis example from the literature is used to illustrate the application of the search algorithm to experimental data.

Ulbrich, N.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Calculations of Diffuser Flows with an Anisotropic K-Epsilon Model

A newly developed anisotropic K-epsilon model is applied to calculate three axisymmetric diffuser flows with or without separation. The new model uses a quadratic stress-strain relation and satisfies the realizability conditions, i.e., it ensures both the positivity of the turbulent normal stresses and the Schwarz' inequality between any fluctuating velocities. Calculations are carried out with a finite-element method. A second-order accurate, bounded convection scheme and sufficiently fine grids are used to ensure numerical credibility of the solutions. The standard K-epsilon model is also used in order to highlight the performance of the new model. Comparison with the experimental data shows that the anisotropic K-epsilon model performs consistently better than does the standard K-epsilon model in all of the three test cases.

Zhu, J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An investigation of surface parameter estimation from surface models

In surface scattering problems, scattering models are used to estimate the surface parameters by comparing model predictions to data. The meaning of such a procedure is examined using computer simulated scattering data from statistically known surfaces. Numerically exact scattering computations based on the moment method are conducted, and standard surface scattering models are applied to these simulated data. It is shown that such an approach usually leads to effective surface parameters as opposed to real surface parameters, except for a limited frequency region. It is also shown that if a surface scattering model is valid over all frequencies, then it is possible to recover the real surface parameters regardless of whether the surface is single scale or two scale.

Fung, A. K.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Comparison of experiment with calculations using curvature-corrected zero and two equation turbulence models for a two-dimensional U-duct

In this paper experimental measurements are compared with Navier-Stokes calculations using seven different turbulence models for the internal flow in a two-dimensional U-duct. The configuration is representative of many internal flows of engineering interst that experience strong curvature. In an effort to improve agreement, this paper tests several versions of the two-equation k-epsilon turbulence model including the standard version, an extended version with a production range time scale, and a version that includes curvature time scales. Each is tested in its high and low Reynolds number formulations. Calculations using these new models and the original mixing length model are compared here with measurements of mean and turbulence velocities, static pressure and skin friction in the U-duct at two Reynolds numbers. The comparisons show that only the low Reynolds number version of the extended k-epsilon model does a reasonable job of predicting the important features of this flow at both Reynolds numbers tested.

Monson, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On modeling pressure diffusion in non-homogeneous shear flows

New models are proposed for the 'slow and 'rapid' parts of the pressure diffusive transport based on the examination of DNS databases for plane mixing layers and wakes. The model for the 'slow' part is non-local, but requires the distribution of the triple-velocity correlation as a local source. The latter can be computed accurately for the normal component from standard gradient diffusion models, but such models are inadequate for the cross component. More work is required to remedy this situation.

Demuren, A. O.↗
NASA NTRS1987

New developments in studies of compact X-ray binaries

Several recent developments, both observational and theoretical, on the study of X-ray binaries and the compact objects they contain are discussed. The recent discovery of the first binary periods for the globular cluster X-ray sources has stimulated a new model for their origin. As a variant of the 'standard' tidal capture origin model, this predicts an enhanced number of neutron stars in globular clusters. Long term timing studies of X-ray binaries may be consistent with many of these systems, primarily X-ray burst sources, being in fact hierarchical triple systems. Finally, the radio studies of Cyg X-3 and other X-ray binaries suggest that nonthermal processes are as important, energetically, as accretion processes in these systems.

Grindlay, Jonathan E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Hypersonic shock-wave turbulent-boundary-layer interaction flows - Experiment and computation

Solutions of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are presented and compared with experimental surface data for a series of hypersonic shock-wave/turbulent-boundary-layer interaction flows. The turbulence models used include the standard k-epsilon two-equation eddy viscosity model, a two-layer modification to this model, and a third model with several modifications to account for compressibility effects. Both modified models gave significant improvements for all the test flows.

Horstman, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Local Supercluster as a test of cosmological models

The Local Supercluster kinematic properties (the Local Group infall toward the Virgo Cluster and galaxy density distribution about the Virgo Cluster) in various cosmological models are examined utilizing large-scale N-body (PM) simulations 500(exp 3) cells, 250(exp 3) particles, and box size of 400 h(exp -1) Mpc) and are compared to observations. Five models are investigated: (1) the standard, Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite (COBE)-normalized cold dark matter (CDM) model with omega = 1, h = 0.5, and sigma(sub 8) = 1.05; (2) the standard Hot Dark Matter (HDM) model with omega = 1, h = 0.75, and sigma(sub 8) = 1; (3) the tilted CDM model with omega = 1, h = 0.5, n = 0.7, and sigma(sub 8) = 0.5; (4) a CDM + lambda model with omega = 0.3, lambda = 0.7, h = 2/3, and sigma(sub 8) = 2/3; (5) the PBI model with omega = 0.2, h = 0.8, x = 0.1, m = -0.5, and sigma(sub 8) = 0.9. Comparison of the five models with the presently available observational measurements v(sub LG) = 85 - 305 km/s (with mean of 250 km/s), delta(n(sub g))/(n(sub g)-bar) = 1.40 + or - 0.35) suggests that an open universe with omega approximately 0.5 (with or without lambda) and sigma(sub 8) approximately 0.8 is preferred, with omega = 0.3-1.0 (with or without lambda) and sigma(sub 8) = 0.7-1.0 being the acceptable range. At variance with some previous claims based on either direct N-body or spherical nonlinear approaches, we find that a flat model with sigma(sub 8) approximately 0.7-1.0 seems to be reasonably consistent with observations. However, if one favors the low limit of v(sub LG) = 85 km/s, then an omega approximately 0.2-0.3 universe seems to provide a better fit, and flat (omega = 1) models are ruled out at approximately 95% confidence level. On the other hand, if the high limit of v(sub LG) = 350 km/s is closer to the truth, then it appears that omega approximately 0.7-0.8 is more consistent. This test is insensitive to the shape of the power spectrum, but rather sensitive to the normalization of the perturbation amplitude on the relevant scale (e.g., sigma(sub 8)) and omega. We find that neither linear nor nonlinear relations (with spherical symmetry) are good approximations for the relation between radial peculiar velocity and density perturbation, i.e., nonspherical effects and gravitational tidal field are important. The derived omega using either of the two relations is underestimated. In some cases, this error is as large as a factor of 2-4.

Cen, Renyue↗
NASA NTRS1984

Sensor Radiance for a Midlatitude Atmospheric Model

The Herman radiative transfer code which iteratively traces solar radiance through a discrete number of scattering angles and many atmospheric layers was transferred to a personnal computer to reduce time in recompiling the source code. The code was then used to predict what ground reflectance would saturate the TM sensor output given a standard midlatitude atmospheric model. Output radiance is tabulated for the first four bands. Plots show radiance at the sensor as a function of solar zenith angle from a visibility of 40 km; solar zenith angle as a function of time of year for four latitudes over a typical portion of the descending node of a LANDSAT orbit; and values of ground reflectance required to saturate the TM sensor from three different aerosol loading conditions (corresponding to about 20 km, 40 km. and greater than 100 km visibility).

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1998

Testing Models for Perceptual Discrimination Using Repeatable Noise

Adding noise to stimuli to be discriminated allows estimation of observer classification functions based on the correlation between observer responses and relevant features of the noisy stimuli. Examples will be presented of stimulus features that are found in auditory tone detection and visual Vernier acuity. Using the standard signal detection model (Thurstone scaling), we derive formulas to estimate the proportion of the observer's decision variable variance that is controlled by the added noise. One is based on the probability of agreement of the observer with him/herself on trials with the same noise sample. Another is based on the relative performance of the observer and the model. When these do not agree, the model can be rejected. A second derivation gives the probability of agreement of observer and model when the observer follows the model except for internal noise. Agreement significantly less than this amount allows rejection of the model.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Masking by Gratings Predicted by an Image Sequence Discriminating Model: Testing Models for Perceptual Discrimination Using Repeatable Noise

Adding noise to stimuli to be discriminated allows estimation of observer classification functions based on the correlation between observer responses and relevant features of the noisy stimuli. Examples will be presented of stimulus features that are found in auditory tone detection and visual vernier acuity. using the standard signal detection model (Thurstone scaling), we derive formulas to estimate the proportion of the observers decision variable variance that is controlled by the added noise. one is based on the probability of agreement of the observer with him/herself on trials with the same noise sample. Another is based on the relative performance of the observer and the model. When these do not agree, the model can be rejected. A second derivation gives the probability of agreement of observer and model when the observer follows the model except for internal noise. Agreement significantly less than this amount allows rejection of the model.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Diffusive redistribution of water vapor in the solar nebula revisited

Stevenson and Lunine presented a model for enhancing the abundance of solid material in the region of the solar nebula at the water condensation point. This was used to provide a means to produce a much more rapid formation of Jupiter than the standard solar nebula models. However, they underestimated the drag induced sun-ward radial drift of the planetesimals of interest. Reanalysis reveals that these particles would spread over the inner solar system and might influence the formation of the asteroids.

Sears, William D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Hot gas in the cold dark matter scenario: X-ray clusters from a high-resolution numerical simulation

A new, three-dimensional, shock-capturing hydrodynamic code is utilized to determine the distribution of hot gas in a standard cold dark matter (CDM) model of the universe. Periodic boundary conditions are assumed: a box with size 85 h(exp -1) Mpc having cell size 0.31 h(exp -1) Mpc is followed in a simulation with 270(exp 3) = 10(exp 7.3) cells. Adopting standard parameters determined from COBE and light-element nucleosynthesis, sigma(sub 8) = 1.05, omega(sub b) = 0.06, and assuming h = 0.5, we find the X-ray-emitting clusters and compute the luminosity function at several wavelengths, the temperature distribution, and estimated sizes, as well as the evolution of these quantities with redshift. We find that most of the total X-ray emissivity in our box originates in a relatively small number of identifiable clusters which occupy approximately 10(exp -3) of the box volume. This standard CDM model, normalized to COBE, produces approximately 5 times too much emission from clusters having L(sub x) is greater than 10(exp 43) ergs/s, a not-unexpected result. If all other parameters were unchanged, we would expect adequate agreement for sigma(sub 8) = 0.6. This provides a new and independent argument for lower small-scale power than standard CDM at the 8 h(exp -1) Mpc scale. The background radiation field at 1 keV due to clusters in this model is approximately one-third of the observed background, which, after correction for numerical effects, again indicates approximately 5 times too much emission and the appropriateness of sigma(sub 8) = 0.6. If we have used the observed ratio of gas to total mass in clusters, rather than basing the mean density on light-element nucleosynthesis, then the computed luminosity of each cluster would have increased still further, by a factor of approximately 10. The number density of clusters increases to z approximately 1, but the luminosity per typical cluster decreases, with the result that evolution in the number density of bright clusters is moderate in this redshift range, showing a broad peak near z = 0.7, and then a rapid decline above redshift z = 3. Detailed computations of the luminosity functions in the range L(sub x) = 10(exp 40) - 10(exp 44) ergs/s in various energy bands are presented for both cluster central regions and total luminosities to be used in comparison with ROSAT and other observational data sets. The quantitative results found disagree significantly with those found by other investigators using semianalytic techniques. We find little dependence of core radius on cluster luminosity and a dependence of temperature on luminosity given by log kT(sub x) = A + B log L(sub x), which is slightly steeper (B = 0.38) than is indicated by observations. Computed temperatures are somewhat higher than observed, as expected, in that COBE-normalized CDM has too much power on the relevant scales. A modest average temperature gradient is found, with temperatures dropping to 90% of central values at 0.4 h(exp -1) Mpc and 70% of central values at 0.9 h(exp -1) Mpc. Examining the ratio of gas to total mass in the clusters normalized to Omega(sub B) h(exp 2) = 0.015, and comparing with observations, we conclude, in agreement with White (1991), that the cluster observations argue for an open universe.

Kang, Hyesung↗
NASA NTRS2003

Accretion Disk Spectra of the Ultra-luminous X-ray Sources in Nearby Spiral Galaxies and Galactic Superluminal Jet Sources

Ultra-luminous Compact X-ray Sources (ULXs) in nearby spiral galaxies and Galactic superluminal jet sources share the common spectral characteristic that they have unusually high disk temperatures which cannot be explained in the framework of the standard optically thick accretion disk in the Schwarzschild metric. On the other hand, the standard accretion disk around the Kerr black hole might explain the observed high disk temperature, as the inner radius of the Kerr disk gets smaller and the disk temperature can be consequently higher. However, we point out that the observable Kerr disk spectra becomes significantly harder than Schwarzschild disk spectra only when the disk is highly inclined. This is because the emission from the innermost part of the accretion disk is Doppler-boosted for an edge-on Kerr disk, while hardly seen for a face-on disk. The Galactic superluminal jet sources are known to be highly inclined systems, thus their energy spectra may be explained with the standard Kerr disk with known black hole masses. For ULXs, on the other hand, the standard Kerr disk model seems implausible, since it is highly unlikely that their accretion disks are preferentially inclined, and, if edge-on Kerr disk model is applied, the black hole mass becomes unreasonably large (greater than or approximately equal to 300 Solar Mass). Instead, the slim disk (advection dominated optically thick disk) model is likely to explain the observed super- Eddington luminosities, hard energy spectra, and spectral variations of ULXs. We suggest that ULXs are accreting black holes with a few tens of solar mass, which is not unexpected from the standard stellar evolution scenario, and their X-ray emission is from the slim disk shining at super-Eddington luminosities.

White, Nicholas E.↗