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At least 883 records · Page 49

A prediction of the gamma-ray flux from Nova Herculis 1991

UV observations made with the IUE satellite of Nova Her 1991 are presented and discussed. A distance of 3.4 kpc and reddening of 0.6 E(B-V) to Nova Her 1991 are determined by comparing its UV and optical outburst behavior with those of the extragalactic ONeMg nova LMC 1990 No. 1. Her 1991 was also detected by Rosat five days into its outburst, and it is argued that a small fraction of the X-rays may be the product of Comptonized 1.2 and 0.5 MeV emission from the decay of Na-22. If the mass of ejected shell is indeed as high as was estimated by Woodward et al. (1992), namely 0.0001 solar mass, then the present results predicted that Na-22 gamma-ray emission from the ejecta of Nova Her 1991 would still be detectable by GRO in the spring of 1992. The detection level was expected to be about 5 sigma in a two-week observation. Such a detection would strongly guide and constrain the hydrodynamic and nucleosynthesis simulations of nova outbursts on massive white dwarfs.

Starrfield, Sumner↗

Validation of International Space Station Electrical Performance Model via On-orbit Telemetry

The first U.S. power module on International Space Station (ISS) was activated in December 2000. Comprised of solar arrays, nickel-hydrogen (NiH2) batteries, and a direct current power management and distribution (PMAD) system, the electric power system (EPS) supplies power to housekeeping and user electrical loads. Modeling EPS performance is needed for several reasons, but primarily to assess near-term planned and off-nominal operations and because the EPS configuration changes over the life of the ISS. The System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) computer code is used to assess the ISS EPS performance. This paper describes the process of validating the SPACE EPS model via ISS on-orbit telemetry. To accomplish this goal, telemetry was first used to correct assumptions and component models in SPACE. Then on-orbit data was directly input to SPACE to facilitate comparing model predictions to telemetry. It will be shown that SPACE accurately predicts on-orbit component and system performance. For example, battery state-of-charge was predicted to within 0.6 percentage points over a 0 to 100 percent scale and solar array current was predicted to within a root mean square (RMS) error of 5.1 Amps out of a typical maximum of 220 Amps. First, SPACE model predictions are compared to telemetry for the ISS EPS components: solar arrays, NiH2 batteries, and the PMAD system. Second, SPACE predictions for the overall performance of the ISS EPS are compared to telemetry and again demonstrate model accuracy.

Jannette, Anthony G.↗

Grain processes in massive star formation

Observational evidence suggests that stars greater than 100 M(solar) exist in the Galaxy and Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), however classical star formation theory predicts stellar mass limits of only approx. 60 M(solar). A protostellar accretion flow consists of inflowing gas and dust. Grains are destroyed as they are near the central protostar creating a dust shell or cocoon. Radiation pressure acting on the grain can halt the inflow of material thereby limiting the amount of mass accumulated by the protostar. We first consider rather general constraints on the initial grain to gas ratio and mass accretion rates that permit inflow. We further constrain these results by constructing a numerical model. Radiative deceleration of grains and grain destruction processes are explicitly accounted for in an iterative solution of the radiation-hydrodynamic equations. Findings seem to suggest that star formation by spherical accretion requires rather extreme preconditioning of the grain and gas environment.

Wolfire, M. G.↗

Active region influences upon the solar constant

The influence that active regions have upon the solar constant is discussed. Sunspots appear to lower the solar constant for the few days in which they are located near central meridian. This raises the possibility that an 11-year, solar-cycle-related depression in the solar constant may occur. Recent findings concerning the physics of active regions suggest that sunspots and faculae are largely surface features. Within that surface faculae reradiate, within a few weeks, the 'missing energy' associated with sunspots. This is consistent with the observations showing that the solar constant does not have an 11-year cycle-related depression that some authors predicted. However, there is a secular variation in the solar constant, whose explanation is not completely understood.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗

Mass extinction: a commentary

Four neocatastrophist claims about mass extinction are currently being debated; they are that: 1, the late Cretaceous mass extinction was caused by large body impact; 2, as many as five other major extinctions were caused by impact; 3, the timing of extinction events since the Permian is uniformly periodic; and 4, the ages of impact craters on Earth are also periodic and in phase with the extinctions. Although strongly interconnected the four claims are independent in the sense that none depends on the others. Evidence for a link between impact and extinction is strong but still needs more confirmation through bed-by-bed and laboratory studies. An important area for future research is the question of whether extinction is a continuous process, with the rate increasing at times of mass extinctions, or whether it is episodic at all scales. If the latter is shown to be generally true, then species are at risk of extinction only rarely during their existence and catastrophism, in the sense of isolated events of extreme stress, is indicated. This is line of reasoning can only be considered an hypothesis for testing. In a larger context, paleontologists may benefit from a research strategy that looks to known Solar System and Galactic phenomena for predictions about environmental effects on earth. The recent success in the recognition of Milankovitch Cycles in the late Pleistocene record is an example of the potential of this research area.

Review, Tutorial↗

A comparison of the thick-target model with stereo data on the height structure of solar hard X-ray bursts

The thick target, hard solar X-ray source height structure is predicted for the case of a beam that is injected vertically downward, having a power law spectrum, being dominated by Coulomb collisional energy losses, and being structurally characterized by the ratio of hard X-ray flux from an upper part of the source to that from the entire source. These predictions are compared with the flux ratios at 150 and 350 keV which were observed by two spacecraft for five events in which the solar limb occults part of the source for one spacecraft. The energy dependence of the occultation ratio is found to be inconsistent with that predicted by the model, and it is concluded that noncollisional losses must be significant in beam dynamics.

Brown, J. C.↗

Gravitational wave detection with the solar probe: I. Motivation

Questions are posed and answered through discussion of gravitational wave detection with the Solar Probe. Discussed are: (1) what a gravitational wave is; (2) why wave detection is important; (3) what astrophysical information might be learned from these waves; (4) status of attempts to detect these waves; (5) why the Solar Probe is a special mission for detecting these waves; (6) how the Solar Probe's expected sensitivity compares with the strength of predicted gravitational waves; and (7) what gravity wave searchers will do after the Solar Probe.

Thorne, K. S.↗

Predicting industrial building energy consumption with statistical and machine-learning models informed by physical system parameters

The industrial sector consumes about one-third of global energy, making them a frequent target for energy use reduction. Variation in energy usage is observed with weather conditions, as space conditioning needs to change seasonally, and with production, energy-using equipment is directly tied to production rate. Previous models were based on engineering analyses of equipment and relied on site-specific details. Others consisted of single-variable regressors that did not capture all contributions to energy consumption. Further, new modeling techniques could be applied to rectify these weaknesses. Applying data from 45 different manufacturing plants obtained from industrial energy audits, a supervised machine-learning model is developed to create a general predictor for industrial building energy consumption. The model uses features of air enthalpy, solar radiation, and wind speed to predict weather-dependency; motor, steam, and compressed air system parameters to capture support equipment contributions; and operating schedule, production rate, number of employees, and floor area to determine production-dependency. Results showed that a model that used a linear regressor over a transformed feature space could outperform a support vector machine and utilize features more representative of physical systems. Using informed parameters to build a reliable predictor will more accurately characterize a manufacturing facility's energy savings opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Initial results of the Global Thermospheric Mapping Study (GTMS)

The Global Thermospheric Mapping Study (GTMS) is a multi-technique experimental study of the thermosphere designed to map simultaneously its spatial and temporal morphology with a thoroughness and diversity of measurement techniques heretofore unachieved. The GTMS is designed around the Incoherent Scatter Radar Chain in the western hemisphere. The European incoherent scatter radars and the worldwide communities of Fabry-Perot interferometers, meteor wind radars, partial reflection drifts radars, MST radars, and satellite probes are included to extend the spatial coverage and types of measurements available. Theoretical and modeling support in the areas of thermospheric and ionospheric structure, tides, and electric fields are included to aid in program planning and data interpretation. Solar activity was low on the three observation days (F10.7 = 97, 98, 96) and magnetic conditions were unsettled to active (A = 10, 12, 20). All six incoherent scatter radar facilities collected data. Each collected F region data day and night while Saint Santin and Millstone Hill additionally collected E region data during daylight hours. Initial results from Sondrestrom and Millstone Hill are presented. Good quality Fabry Perot data were collected at Fritz Peak and San Jose dos Campos. Weather conditions produced poor results at Arequipa and Arecibo. Initial results from Fritz Peak are presented. Mesosphere/lower-thermosphere observations were conducted under the ATMAP organization. The magnetometer chains also were operational during this campaign. Initial thermospheric general circulation model predictions were made for assumed solar-geophysical conditions, and selected results are presented.

Oliver, W. L.↗

The Rise of US Photovoltaics: An Exploration of Land Use Density Trends in Large‐Scale Solar Facility Attributes, 2012–2021

An energy transition is underway in the United States; renewable energy generation is now on par with coal and nuclear generation. The number of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities increased approximately tenfold between 2012 and 2021, with an associated 25-fold increase in cumulative installed capacity. With ambitious decarbonization and renewable energy deployment goals at both the federal and state levels, deployments of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities will continue apace. This growth is likely to be complex with ripples of impacts felt throughout different aspects of society, and thus accurate solar land use metrics allowing more accurate predictions are of value to policymakers, planners, and other stakeholders in the future photovoltaic build-out. In this paper, we leverage data from the newly released US Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Database to examine recent trends in large-scale solar photovoltaic land use. We analyze the relationships between solar array capacity density (W/acre) and a range of facility attributes to better understand the future land requirements of solar capacity expansion over the coming years. Installed capacity was the single strongest determinant of solar array area. However, we found substantial variation in capacity density across facility attributes, including mount type, latitude, urbanicity, time, and prior land use.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling Time to Failure in Potential-Induced Degradation of Silicon Solar Modules based on Quantitative Sodium Kinetics

We present a physics-based simulation environment for the prediction of potential-induced-degradation (PID) failure time in silicon solar modules. Our model is based on experimental sodium migration kinetics obtained from our recently developed trap-corrected bias-stress-temperature method and from secondary ion mass spectrometry measurements. Furthermore, we model sodium migration to stacking faults and subsequent formation of conductive pathways through the p-n junction, which causes a decrease of the shunt resistance and loss of efficiency.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comprehensive energy balance analysis of photon-enhanced thermionic power generation considering concentrated solar absorption distribution

The present article reports a comprehensive energy balance analysis of a photon-enhanced thermionic emission (PETE) device when it is used for concentrated solar power (CSP) generation. To this end, we consider a realistic PETE device composed of a boron-doped silicon emitter on glass and a phosphorus-doped diamond collector on tungsten separated by the interelectrode vacuum gap. Here, depth-dependent spectral solar absorption and its photovoltaic and photothermal energy conversion processes are rigorously calculated to predict the PETE power output and energy conversion efficiency. Our calculation predicts that when optimized, the power output of the considered PETE device can reach 1.6 W/cm 2 with the energy conversion efficiency of ~ 18% for 100× solar concentration, which is substantially lower than those predicted in previous works under ideal conditions. In addition, the photon-enhancement ratio is lower than 10 and decreases with the increasing solar concentration due to the photothermal heating of the emitter assembly, suggesting that PETE should be more suitable for lowto- medium CSP below ~ 100× concentration. These observations signify the importance of a rigorous energy balance analysis based on spectral and spatial solar absorption distribution for the accurate prediction of PETE power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

International Space Station Power System Telemetry Compared With Analytically Derived Data for Shadowed Cases

This article highlights fiscal year 2002 work performed by NASA Glenn Research Center personnel to validate algorithms and data developed in-house to predict shadowing effects on the International Space Station (ISS) solar arrays power generation. The validation effort utilized video footage and on-orbit telemetry for cases spanning a 1-yr period. Validation was required because of the uncertainty of various aspects involved in shadowing analysis. Results show that a good comparison exists between actual and predicted shadowed power system performance for solar array front and backside shadowing.

Fincannon, H. James↗

Prediction of magnetic orientation in driver gas associated -Bz events

The source regions of five strong -Bz events detected at 1 AU for which solar sources were identified by Tang et al. (1989) and Tsurutani et al. (1992) are investigated in order to determine whether the magnetic orientation of driver gas in the interplanetary medium observed at the earth can be predicted when its solar source is identified. Three -Bz events were traced to flare-associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs), one to an eruptive prominence associated CME, and one to three possible solar sources. The computed magnetic orientations at the candidate 'release height' (the height where the front of a CME ceases to accelerate) above the flare sites associated with CMEs show the existence of the expected southward field component. It is concluded that the magnetic orientation in flare-associated CME generated driver gas may be predictable.

Hoeksema, J. T.↗

Forecasting Propagation and Evolution of CMEs in an Operational Setting: What Has Been Learned

One of the major types of solar eruption, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) not only impact space weather, but also can have significant societal consequences. CMEs cause intense geomagnetic storms and drive fast mode shocks that accelerate charged particles, potentially resulting in enhanced radiation levels both in ions and electrons. Human and technological assets in space can be endangered as a result. CMEs are also the major contributor to generating large amplitude Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs), which are a source of concern for power grid safety. Due to their space weather significance, forecasting the evolution and impacts of CMEs has become a much desired capability for space weather operations worldwide. Based on our operational experience at Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov), we present here some of the insights gained about accurately predicting CME impacts, particularly in relation to space weather operations. These include: 1. The need to maximize information to get an accurate handle of three-dimensional (3-D) CME kinetic parameters and therefore improve CME forecast; 2. The potential use of CME simulation results for qualitative prediction of regions of space where solar energetic particles (SEPs) may be found; 3. The need to include all CMEs occurring within a ~24 h period for a better representation of the CME interactions; 4. Various other important parameters in forecasting CME evolution in interplanetary space, with special emphasis on the CME propagation direction. It is noted that a future direction for our CME forecasting is to employ the ensemble modeling approach.

forecasting↗

Hubble Space Telescope six-battery nickel-cadmium mission simulation test

A simulation test of the six-battery nickel-cadmium mission to determine battery life and electrical power system (EPS) performance characteristics for the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) program, is described. The basic HST power system requirements are to provide power generation, energy storage, and EPS control and distribution for 2.5 years with the nickel-cadmium (NiCd) batteries at an end of life solar array of 2 years. Mission simulation life testing begain in April of 1986, and the batteries have completed their 2.5 year mission requirement. Conditions as close as practical to the actual predicted mission profiles were used. These included solar array degradation, load variations, beta angle changes, temperature changes (with excursions to 10 C), battery reconditioning, safemode simulations, and off-normal roll activities. Discounting system cycling interruptions caused by hardware, software, human error, and periodic updates and revisions, the HST EPS breadboard hardware operated continuously for 30 months and demonstrated the power system's ability to meet the HST requirement.

Jackson, Lorna G.↗

Cosmic ray transverse gradient for a Hale cycle

We have used neutron monitor data obtained at Deep River and Huancayo as well as the vertical underground telescope data obtained at Embudo to compute the cosmic ray transverse gradient (G(sub theta)) for the 1965 to 1990 period. The computed mean value of G(sub theta) for a given qA epoch, changes sign with the change in the solar magnetic polairty in accordance with the predictions of some contemporary hypotheses. Also, we find that the magnitude of G(sub theta) undergoes a significant time variation during a given polarity epoch. It has the largest value near the solar polar field reversal epoch boundaries, when magnetic polarity in the solar northern hemisphere is positive (qA greater than O). For each of the three solar polar field reversals, the change in the magnitude of G(sub theta) is steeper across the epoch boundaries. There is a good correlation between G(sub theta) and the tilt angle of the helisopheric neutral current sheet (HNCS). Our results are in agreement with the reported piecemeal measurements of the latitudinal gradient made by spacecrafts, at different times, at lower primary energies, at far off distances from Earth's orbit. As such, their global significace is appreciable. Even so, it is not clear yet how these findings reflect upon the drift hypothesis in its present form. However, they do affirm the important role played by the tilt angle of HNCS in the modulation processes.

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗