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Results for “robust estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 883 records · Page 49

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2013

Controller Strategies for Automation Tool Use under Varying Levels of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty

A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to examine the effects of varying levels of trajectory prediction uncertainty on air traffic controller workload and performance, as well as how strategies and the use of decision support tools change in response. This paper focuses on the strategies employed by two controllers from separate teams who worked in parallel but independently under identical conditions (airspace, arrival traffic, tools) with the goal of ensuring schedule conformance and safe separation for a dense arrival flow in en route airspace. Despite differences in strategy and methods, both controllers achieved high levels of schedule conformance and safe separation. Overall, results show that trajectory uncertainties introduced by wind and aircraft performance prediction errors do not affect the controllers' ability to manage traffic. Controller strategies were fairly robust to changes in error, though strategies were affected by the amount of delay to absorb (scheduled time of arrival minus estimated time of arrival). Using the results and observations, this paper proposes an ability to dynamically customize the display of information including delay time based on observed error to better accommodate different strategies and objectives.

Strategy↗

NASA NTRS2015

On-Line Safe Flight Envelope Determination for Impaired Aircraft

The design and simulation of an on-line algorithm which estimates the safe maneuvering envelope of aircraft is discussed in this paper. The trim envelope is estimated using probabilistic methods and efficient high-fidelity model based computations of attainable equilibrium sets. From this trim envelope, a robust reachability analysis provides the maneuverability limitations of the aircraft through an optimal control formulation. Both envelope limits are presented to the flight crew on the primary flight display. In the results section, scenarios are considered where this adaptive algorithm is capable of computing online changes to the maneuvering envelope due to impairment. Furthermore, corresponding updates to display features on the primary flight display are provided to potentially inform the flight crew of safety critical envelope alterations caused by the impairment.

algorithms↗

DOE OSTI2020

Diesel Generator Model Parameterization for Microgrid Simulation Using Hybrid Box-Constrained Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm

Existing generator parameterization methods, typically developed for large turbine generator units, are difficult to apply to small kW-level diesel generators in microgrid applications. Here, this article presents a model parameterization method that estimates a complete set of kW-level diesel generator parameters simultaneously using only load-step-change tests with limited measurement points. This method provides a more cost-efficient and robust approach to achieve high-fidelity modeling of diesel generators for microgrid dynamic simulation. A two-stage hybrid box-constrained Levenberg-Marquardt (H-BCLM) algorithm is developed to search the optimal parameter set given the parameter bounds. A heuristic algorithm, namely Generalized Opposition-based Learning Genetic Algorithm (GOL-GA), is applied to identify proper initial estimates at the first stage, followed by a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm designed to fine tune the solution based on the first-stage result. The proposed method is validated against dynamic simulation of a diesel generator model and field measurements from a 16kW diesel generator unit.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Intra-hour Solar Irradiance Forecast in Multiple Locations using Deep Transfer Learning

In recent years, solar power system installation imposes several challenges on the operations of local and regional power grids due to the inherent variability of ground-level solar irradiance. This work proposes a novel real-time solar forecast methodology for intra-hour solar irradiance based on deep transfer learning from ground-based sky imager for time horizons ranging from 5-15 min. There are three unique aspects of the proposed methodology: (1) a Deep Learning based algorithm development which is modeled as a classification approach rather than a traditional regression approach; (2) the use of the Transfer Learning technique to show generalization capability, robustness, and portability of baseline model in the newly deployed location where availability of enough data for training is typically scarce, and (3) redefinition of point-based irradiation forecast error estimation technique with a window-based one that is more intuitive and user-friendly. The system is developed using multiple years of irradiance and sky image recording in New Jersey and one-year data from Colorado, USA. The method is validated against ground telemetry from these two locations of diverse geographic and climatic conditions. Results show that the forecasting method proposed in this work is robust and highly accurate (8% MAPE error) for multiple locations deployment.

Deep Learning, Convolution Neural Networks, transf↗

NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Damage Characterization Using the Computationally-Efficient Bayesian Approach

This work presents a computationally-ecient approach for damage determination that quanti es uncertainty in the provided diagnosis. Given strain sensor data that are polluted with measurement errors, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the location, size, and orientation of damage. This approach uses Bayes' Theorem to combine any prior knowledge an analyst may have about the nature of the damage with information provided implicitly by the strain sensor data to form a posterior probability distribution over possible damage states. The unknown damage parameters are then estimated based on samples drawn numerically from this distribution using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm. Several modi cations are made to the traditional Bayesian inference approach to provide signi cant computational speedup. First, an ecient surrogate model is constructed using sparse grid interpolation to replace a costly nite element model that must otherwise be evaluated for each sample drawn with MCMC. Next, the standard Bayesian posterior distribution is modi ed using a weighted likelihood formulation, which is shown to improve the convergence of the sampling process. Finally, a robust MCMC algorithm, Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), is adopted to sample the probability distribution more eciently. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed framework e ectively provides damage estimates with uncertainty quanti cation and can yield orders of magnitude speedup over standard Bayesian approaches.

Warner, James E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analyzing the Effects of Cyberattacks on Distribution System State Estimation

Key components of power systems—such as energy management systems, automatic generation control, and state estimation—are under serious vulnerability from cyberattacks. Cyber threats in electric grids have increased significantly because of the increased interconnectivity of supervisory control and data acquisition systems and public network infrastructure. As the penetration level of distributed energy resources increases, it is imperative to employ system-monitoring techniques such as state estimation for the reliable operation of distribution systems. Recently, multiple methods have been developed that exploit the low rank property of distribution system state matrix and are robust to bad data, such as matrix completion. This paper analyzes the impact of various realistic cyberattack scenarios on matrix completion. Realistic cyberattack scenarios are converted into data corruption models that are used in an extensive simulation of a custom IEEE 123-bus system.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Constraining maximum event magnitude during injection-triggered seismicity

Abstract Understanding mechanisms controlling fluid injection-triggered seismicity is key in defining strategies to ameliorate it. Recent triggered events (e.g. Pohang, Mw 5.5) have exceeded predictions of average energy release by a factor of >1000x, necessitating robust methodologies to both define critical antecedent conditions and to thereby constrain anticipated event size. We define maximum event magnitudes resulting from triggering as a function of pre-existing critical stresses and fluid injection volume. Fluid injection experiments on prestressed laboratory faults confirm these estimates of triggered moment magnitudes for varied boundary conditions and injection rates. In addition, observed ratios of shear slip to dilation rates on individual faults signal triggering and may serve as a measurable proxy for impending rupture. This new framework provides a robust method of constraining maximum event size for preloaded faults and unifies prior laboratory and field observations that span sixteen decades in injection volume and four decades in length scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analyzing the Effects of Cyberattacks on Distribution System State Estimation: Preprint

Key components of power systems—such as energy management systems, automatic generation control, and state estimation—are under serious vulnerability from cyber attacks. Cyber threats in electric grids have increased significantly because of the increased interconnectivity of supervisory control and data acquisition systems and public network infrastructure. As the penetration level of distributed energy resources increases, it is imperative to employ system-monitoring techniques such as state estimation for the reliable operation of distribution systems. Recently, multiple methods have been developed that exploit the low rank property of distribution system state matrix and are robust to bad data, such as matrix completion. This paper analyzes the impact of various realistic cyber attack scenarios on matrix completion. Realistic cyber attack scenarios are converted into data corruption models that are used in an extensive simulation of a custom IEEE 123-bus system.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated Bayesian high-throughput estimation of plasma temperature and density from emission spectroscopy

Here, this paper introduces a novel approach for automated high-throughput estimation of plasma temperature and density using atomic emission spectroscopy, integrating Bayesian inference with sophisticated physical models. We provide an in-depth examination of Bayesian methods applied to the complexities of plasma diagnostics, supported by a robust framework of physical and measurement models. Our methodology is demonstrated using experimental observations in the field of magneto-inertial fusion, focusing on individual and sequential shot analyses of the Plasma Liner Experiment at LANL. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of plasma parameter estimation and in using the analysis to reveal the deep hidden structure in the data. This study not only offers a new perspective of plasma analysis but also paves the way for further research and applications in nuclear instrumentation and related domains.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2020

Physics-guided Deep Learning for Power System State Estimation

In the past decade, dramatic progress has been made in the field of machine learning. This paper explores the possibility of applying deep learning in power system state estimation. Traditionally, physics-based models are used including weighted least square (WLS) or weighted least absolute value (WLAV). These models typically consider a single snapshot of the system without capturing temporal correlations of system states. In this paper, a physics-guided deep learning (PGDL) method is proposed. Specifically, inspired by autoencoders, deep neural networks (DNNs) are used to learn the temporal correlations. The estimated system states from DNNs are then checked against physics laws by running through a set of power flow equations. Hence, the proposed PGDL is both data-driven and physics-guided. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed PGDL method are compared with traditional methods in standard IEEE cases. Simulations show promising results and the applicability is further discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gaussian processes for inferring parton distributions

The extraction of parton distribution functions (PDFs) from experimental or lattice QCD data is an ill-posed inverse problem, where regularization strongly impacts both systematic uncertainties and the reliability of the results. We study a framework based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to reconstruct PDFs from lattice QCD matrix elements. Within a Bayesian framework, Gaussian processes serve as flexible priors that encode uncertainties, correlations, and constraints without imposing rigid functional forms. We investigate a wide range of kernel choices, mean functions, and hyperparameter treatments. We quantify information gained from the data using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Synthetic data tests demonstrate the consistency and robustness of the method. Our study establishes GPR as a systematic and non-parametric approach to PDF reconstruction, offering controlled uncertainty estimates and reduced model bias in lattice QCD analyses.

hadronic spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2021

TRITON: A Multi-GPU open source 2D hydrodynamic flood model

A new open source multi-GPU 2D flood model called TRITON is presented in this work. The model solves the 2D shallow water equations with source terms using a time-explicit first order upwind scheme based on an Augmented Roe's solver that incorporates a careful estimation of bed strengths and a local implicit formulation of friction terms. Here, the scheme is demonstrated to be first order accurate, robust and able to solve for flows under various conditions. TRITON is implemented such that the model effectively utilizes heterogeneous architectures, from single to multiple CPUs and GPUs. Different test cases are shown to illustrate the capabilities and performance of the model, showing promising runtimes for large spatial and temporal scales when leveraging the computer power of GPUs. Under this hardware configuration, communication and input/output subroutines may impact the scalability. The code is developed under an open source license and can be freely downloaded in https://code.ornl.gov/hydro/triton.

2D flood model↗

DOE OSTI2026

Unbiased primordial gravitational wave inference from the CMB with SMICA

The detection of primordial gravitational waves in Cosmic Microwave Background B-mode polarization observations requires accurate and robust subtraction of astrophysical contamination. We show, using a blind Spectral Matching Independent Component Analysis, that it is possible to infer unbiased estimates of the primordial B-mode signal from ground-based observations of a small patch of sky even for highly complex foreground contamination. This work, originally performed in the context of configuration studies for a future CMB-S4 observatory, is highly relevant for the analysis of observations by the current generation of CMB experiments.

cosmological parameters from CMBR↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying concordance of correlated cosmological data sets

We develop estimators of agreement and disagreement between correlated cosmological data sets. These account for data correlations when computing the significance of both tensions and excess confirmation while remaining statistically optimal. We discuss and thoroughly characterize different approaches commenting on the ones that have the best behavior in practical applications. We complement the calculation of their statistical distribution within the Gaussian model with one estimator that takes non-Gaussianities fully into account. To illustrate the use of our techniques, we apply these estimators to supernovae measurements of the distance-redshift relation, absolutely calibrated by the local distance ladder. The suite of best estimators that we discuss finds results that are in excellent agreement between estimators and find no indications of significant internal inconsistencies in this data set above the 1% probability threshold. Furthermore, this shows the robustness of local determinations of the Hubble constant to features in the distance-redshift relation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Online Modelling and Optimization of Nonlinear Integrable Systems

Nonlinear integrable optics was recently proposed as a design approach to increase the limits on beam brightness and intensity imposed by fast collective instabilities. To study these systems experimentally, a new research electron and proton storage ring, the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator, was constructed and recently commissioned at Fermilab. Beam-based diagnostics and online modelling of nonlinear systems presents unique challenges - in this paper, we report on our efforts to develop optimization methods suited for such lattices. We explore the effectiveness of neural networks as fast online surrogate estimators, and integrate them into a beam-based tuning algorithm. We also develop a method of knob dimensionality reduction and subsequent robust multivariate optimization for maximizing key performance metrics under complicated lattice optics constraints.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Single-Phase to Split-Phase Inverters with Advanced Grid Support Functions for Grid-Interactive Applications

This work presents a cost-effective single-phase to split-phase inverter with a reduced switch count, achieving grid interactive performance while maintaining operational efficiency. The proposed system integrates an Andronov-Hopf oscillator based secondary controller, which inherently embeds a nonlinear resistive droop architecture, ensuring rapid dynamic response. A Lyapunov energy function-based primary control enhances transient stability and regulation, while an internal model-based point of common coupling voltage estimation enables cost optimization without additional sensors. Equipped with advanced grid support functionalities, the inverter facilitates seamless distribution system operation with enhanced robustness. The effectiveness of the proposed architecture and control strategy is validated through MATLAB/Simulink and PLECS simulations, demonstrating its feasibility for high-performance grid-supportive applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

An empirical method for geometric calibration of a photon counting detector-based cone beam CT system

BACKGROUND: Geometric calibration is essential in developing a reliable computed tomography (CT) system. It involves estimating the geometry under which the angular projections are acquired. Geometric calibration of cone beam CTs employing small area detectors, such as currently available photon counting detectors (PCDs), is challenging when using traditional-based methods due to detectors’ limited areas. OBJECTIVE: This study presented an empirical method for the geometric calibration of small area PCD-based cone beam CT systems. METHODS: Unlike the traditional methods, we developed an iterative optimization procedure to determine geometric parameters using the reconstructed images of small metal ball bearings (BBs) embedded in a custom-built phantom. An objective function incorporating the sphericities and symmetries of the embedded BBs was defined to assess performance of the reconstruction algorithm with the given initial estimated set of geometric parameters. The optimal parameter values were those which minimized the objective function. The TIGRE toolbox was employed for fast tomographic reconstruction. To evaluate the proposed method, computer simulations were carried out using various numbers of spheres placed in various locations. Furthermore, efficacy of the method was experimentally assessed using a custom-made benchtop PCD-based cone beam CT. RESULTS: Computer simulations validated the accuracy and reproducibility of the proposed method. The precise estimation of the geometric parameters of the benchtop revealed high-quality imaging in CT reconstruction of a breast phantom. Within the phantom, the cylindrical holes, fibers, and speck groups were imaged in high fidelity. The CNR analysis further revealed the quantitative improvements of the reconstruction performed with the estimated parameters using the proposed method. CONCLUSION: Apart from the computational cost, we concluded that the method was easy to implement and robust.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Magnetic Misalignment of Interstellar Dust Filaments

We present evidence for scale-independent misalignment of interstellar dust filaments and magnetic fields. We estimate the misalignment by comparing millimeter-wave dust-polarization measurements from Planck with filamentary structures identified in neutral-hydrogen (H I ) measurements from H I 4PI. We find that the misalignment angle displays a scale independence (harmonic coherence) for features larger than the H I 4PI beamwidth (16$\acute{.}$2). We additionally find a spatial coherence on angular scales of ${ \mathcal O }(1^\circ )$. We present several misalignment estimators formed from the auto- and cross-spectra of dust-polarization and H I -based maps, and we also introduce a map-space estimator. Applied to large regions of the high-Galactic-latitude sky, we find a global misalignment angle of ~2°, which is robust to a variety of masking choices. By dividing the sky into small regions, we show that the misalignment angle correlates with the parity-violating TB cross-spectrum measured in the Planck dust maps. The misalignment paradigm also predicts a dust EB signal, which is of relevance in the search for cosmic birefringence but as yet undetected; the measurements of EB are noisier than those of TB, and our correlations of EB with misalignment angle are found to be weaker and less robust to masking choices. We also introduce an H I -based dust-polarization template constructed from the Hessian matrix of the H I intensity, which is found to correlate more strongly than previous templates with Planck dust B modes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗