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At least 883 records · Page 49

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DOE OSTI2026

pH-Driven Restructuring of Hydration Layers and Cation Adsorption at the Alumina–Water Interface

Oxide−water interfaces underpin ion separations, catalysis, and electrochemical energy technologies, where the electrical double layer (EDL) controls adsorption, transport, and reactivity. However, the molecular-scale links between pHdependent surface protonation, hydration-layer structure, and counterion adsorption remain poorly defined. Here, we combine in situ crystal truncation rod (CTR) and resonant anomalous X-ray reflectivity (RAXR) with streaming potential measurements and ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations to resolve the chemical and structural evolution of the EDL at the single-crystal alumina (012)−water interface in 10 mM Rb + over pH 3−12. CTR measurements reveal two distinct adsorbed water layers at ∼2.2 and ∼3.5 Å above the surface. Each water layer shifts toward the substrate at transition pHs near 6.5 and 10.6, respectively, reflecting changes in primary hydration layer structure in response to the deprotonation of bridging and terminal aluminol groups. RAXR shows a 10-fold increase in Rb + coverage and a decrease in mean adsorption height from ∼3.5 to ∼2.7 Å with increasing pH, indicating enhanced counterion binding accompanied by Stern layer contraction. Streaming potential measurements demonstrate that the zeta potential, i.e., the potential at the hydrodynamic shear plane, is positive at pH 3 and becomes negative at pH ≥ 3.5. The negative charge magnitude increases with increasing pH, consistent with progressive surface deprotonation at higher pH. AIMD identifies inner- and outer-sphere Rb+ complexes whose adsorption heights and coordination geometries depend sensitively on the protonation state of surface oxygens, providing atomistic support for the experimentally inferred trends. These measurements establish two discrete, site-specific pH transitions in hydration-layer structure that track aluminol (de)protonation and quantitatively link them to a pH-driven contraction of the Stern layer (increasing Rb + coverage and decreasing adsorption height). This provides a direct structural basis for connecting surface acid−base chemistry to ion binding distances at an oxide−water interface.

Adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging 13C-Labeling to Assign Molecular Formulas to Unknown Yeast Metabolites

Mass spectrometry analyses have identified tens of thousands of unknown small molecule-associated peaks in different biological specimens. Notably, even the simplest and best studied organisms like Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae yield thousands of unknown peaks. A key question is how many of these reflect actual novel endogenous metabolites. To explore this, Mahieu and Patti used complete 13 C -labeling in E. coli to credential peaks as biological. This reduced the number of unknowns by more than 90%. Here, we carry out similar uniform 13 C-labeling in the Baker’s yeast S. cerevisiae and two less-studied bioenergy-relevant yeasts Rhodotorula toruloides (lipid producer) and Issatchenkia orientalis (organic acid producer). Identification of unknown metabolite peaks and their molecular formulas is facilitated through software tailored for 13 C labeling data and resulting knowledge of carbon atom count. A classification model evaluates the plausibility of each candidate formula, with peaks lacking plausible candidate formulas unlikely to reflect metabolite molecular ions. This approach prioritizes about one hundred candidate abundant unknown metabolites with logical molecular formulas. Most of these are species-specific rather than conserved across yeasts, and more are found in the nonmodel yeasts than S. cerevisiae. Thus, 13 C-labeling data on unknown metabolites highlights the potential for discovering new metabolites and pathways in nonmodel yeasts.

Carbon↗

DOE OSTI2019

Simulating a Mesoscale Convective System Using WRF with a New Spectral Bin Microphysics: Part 1: Hail vs Graupel

A modified Fast Spectral Bin Microphysics scheme (FSBM-2) embedded into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is used to simulate a mesoscale deep convective system observed during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). FSBM-2 uses modified source codes as compared to the current FSBM (FSBM-1). In contrast to FSBM-1, FSBM-2 can simulate hail of several cm in diameter and includes additional processes such as spontaneous breakup of raindrops and aerosol regeneration by drop evaporation. It is shown that allowing large hail particles of diameters exceeding about 1 cm substantially increases the agreement between the simulated and observed squall-line structures both in the convective and stratiform regions. In contrast, if graupel particles are used to represent high-density hydrometeors in convective areas, the ratio of convective-to-stratiform areas diverges from the ratio seen in observations and maximum radar reflectivities are substantially underestimated. Analysis of snow size distributions in the stratiform area shows an important link between the ice crystals formed by homogeneous freezing in the convective area to ice particle number concentration in the stratiform region. Simulated raindrop size distributions in the stratiform area below the melting level from FSBM-2 show a good agreement with observations. The regeneration of CCN by droplet evaporation and detrainment of these CCN to the stratiform region increases the concentration of CCN there up to 8-9 km altitude; the additional CCN penetrate clouds and produce new droplets, leading to some convection intensification. Key words: Mesoscale convective systems (MCS), squall lines, spectral bin microphysics, large hail, in-cloud nucleation, size distributions of hydrometeors in MCS.

Shpund, Kobby↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spectral, Compositional, and Physical Properties of the Upper Murray Formation and Vera Rubin Ridge, Gale Crater, Mars

During 2018 and 2019, the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover investigated the chemistry, morphology, and stratigraphy of Vera Rubin ridge (VRR). Using orbital data from the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars, scientists attributed the strong 860 nm signal associated with VRR to the presence of red crystalline hematite. However, Mastcam multispectral data and CheMin X-ray diffraction (XRD) measurements show that the depth of the 860 nm absorption is negatively correlated with the abundance of red crystalline hematite, suggesting that other mineralogical or physical parameters are also controlling the 860 nm absorption. Here, we examine Mastcam and ChemCam passive reflectance spectra from VRR and other locations to link the depth, position, and presence or absence of iron-related mineralogic absorption features to the XRD-derived rock mineralogy. Correlating CheMin mineralogy to spectral parameters showed that the ~860 nm absorption has a strong positive correlation with the abundance of ferric phyllosilicates. New laboratory reflectance measurements of powdered mineral mixtures can reproduce trends found in Gale crater. We hypothesize that variations in the 860 nm absorption feature in Mastcam and ChemCam observations of VRR materials are a result of three factors: (1) variations in ferric phyllosilicate abundance due to its ~800–1,000 nm absorption; (2) variations in clinopyroxene abundance because of its band maximum at ~860 nm; and (3) the presence of red crystalline hematite because of its absorption centered at 860 nm. We also show that relatively small changes in Ca-sulfate abundance is one potential cause of the erosional resistance and geomorphic expression of VRR.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Systematic Assessment of Retrieval Methods for Canopy Far-Red Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence Using High-Frequency Automated Field Spectroscopy

Remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offers potential to infer photosynthesis across scales and biomes. Many retrieval methods have been developed to estimate top-of-canopy SIF using ground-based spectroscopy. However, inconsistencies among methods may confound interpretation of SIF dynamics, eco-physiological/environmental drivers, and its relationship with photosynthesis. Using high temporal- and spectral resolution ground-based spectroscopy, we aimed to (1) evaluate performance of SIF retrieval methods under diverse sky conditions using continuous field measurements; (2) assess method sensitivity to fluctuating light, reflectance, and fluorescence emission spectra; and (3) inform users for optimal ground-based SIF retrieval. Analysis included field measurements from bi-hemispherical and hemispherical-conical systems and synthetic upwelling radiance constructed from measured downwelling radiance, simulated reflectance, and simulated fluorescence for benchmarking. Fraunhofer-based differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) and singular vector decomposition (SVD) retrievals exhibit convergent SIF-PAR relationships and diurnal consistency across different sky conditions, while O2A-based spectral fitting method (SFM), SVD, and modified Fraunhofer line discrimination (3FLD) exhibit divergent SIF-PAR relationships across sky conditions. We find that such behavior holds across system configurations, though hemispherical-conical systems diverge less across sky conditions. O 2 A retrieval accuracy, influenced by atmospheric distortion, improves with a narrower fitting window and when training SVD with temporally local spectra. This may impact SIF-photosynthesis relationships interpreted by previous studies using O 2 A-based retrievals with standard (759–767.76 nm) fitting windows. Fraunhofer-based retrievals resist atmospheric impacts but are noisier and more sensitive to assumed SIF spectral shape than O 2 A-based retrievals. We recommend SVD or SFM using reduced fitting window (759.5–761.5 nm) for robust far-red SIF retrievals across sky conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Abstract Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state‐of‐the‐art knowledge in an internally self‐consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain‐specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low‐emissions SSP1‐1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850–1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850–1900 and 1995–2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long‐term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Where Are White Roofs More Effective in Cooling the Surface?

Solar reflective roofs (also called white or cool roofs) are a common heat mitigation strategy. By reflecting more sunlight than regular roofs, cool roofs experience lower surface temperatures and produce less heating of the surrounding air. The effectiveness of cool roofs, quantified by the surface temperature difference between cool roofs and regular roofs ??????, is known to vary spatially. A common perception is that ?????? is controlled by solar radiation that reaches the roof surface. Here we use an Earth System Model and a surface energy balance model to show that the spatial variability of ??????, when normalized by the albedo difference between cool roofs and regular roofs (????), is in fact more controlled by an energy distribution factor that encodes the efficiencies of surface energy balance components in dissipating heat. Our results suggest that painting the roof white is more effective in reducing the roof surface temperature when the roof has less water holding capacity and smaller thermal admittance and is located in places with more solar radiation, less precipitation, and lower wind speed.

Wang, Linying↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ecosystem-Level Energy and Water Budgets Are Resilient to Canopy Mortality in Sparse Semiarid Biomes

Climate-driven woody vegetation mortality is a defining feature of semiarid biomes that drives fundamental changes in ecosystem structure. However, the observed impacts of woody mortality on ecosystem-scale energy and water budgets and the responses of surviving vegetation are highly variable among studies in water-limited environments. A previous girdling manipulation experiment in a piñon-juniper woodland suggested that although ecosystem-scale evapotranspiration was not altered by large-scale piñon mortality, soil water content decreased and the surviving juniper experienced greater water stress than juniper in an undisturbed woodland. Here we experimentally explored to what extent mortality-induced changes in energy balance components can explain these results. We compared energy fluxes measured above two adjacent piñon-juniper woodlands where piñon girdling was implemented at one site and the other subsequently experienced large-scale natural piñon mortality. We found that the mortality-induced decrease in canopy area was not sufficient to alter surface reflectance, roughness, and partitioning between energy budget components at both sites. A radiative transfer model estimated that because of the sparse premortality canopy, surface reflectance is more sensitive to a large increase in understory leaf area than further loss of crown area. Increased water stress in the remaining juniper following both mortality events can be explained by an increase in radiation on the ground that promoted higher soil temperature and evaporation. We found similar responses of ecosystem and tree-level functions to both girdling and natural mortality. This suggests that girdling is an appropriate approach to explore the impact of tree mortality on ecosystem structure, function, and energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Porosity-Permeability Evolution During Simultaneous Mineral Dissolution and Precipitation

Permeability in reactive porous media evolves in complex ways that are hard to predict. Macroscopic empirical equations are often used to estimate permeability evolution but fail to reflect the impact of pore scale reactions on permeability. This work aims to understand the evolution of permeability in systems where mineral dissolution and precipitation occur simultaneously. Pore network models are used for permeability simulation of a Paluxy sandstone using pore and pore-throat size distributions from the analysis of X-ray CT images. Pore and pore-throat radii are increased and decreased to reflect the effects of dissolution and precipitation reactions. Varying spatial distributions of reactions are simulated and the resulting porosity and permeability values compared with commonly used macroscopic equations. It is observed that when dissolution occurs at the inlet and precipitation at the outlet, porosity increases while permeability decreases. Similar results are also observed in the respective opposite scenario where precipitation occurs at the inlet and dissolution at the outlet. When dissolution and precipitation reactions are randomly distributed throughout the network, porosity increases with little change in permeability that is not captured by the empirical equations. When reactions are controlled by pore and pore-throat sizes, such as dissolution occurring in pores and pore-throats of small size and precipitation in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability decrease. When precipitation occurs in pores and pore-throats of smaller size and dissolution in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability increase and is described relatively well by the Verma-Pruess porosity-permeability equation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Volatile Element Evidence of Local MORB Mantle Heterogeneity Beneath the Southwest Indian Ridge, 48°–51°E

Abstract The mantle source beneath the Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR) reflects a complex history of contamination. Magmatic volatile contents are vital tracers of these kinds of heterogeneities, which may fractionate otherwise constant volatile/non‐volatile elemental ratios, such as the H 2 O/Ce ratio. Although several studies have recently used trace element and isotopic data to address mantle source heterogeneity and magmatic processes at SWIR 48°–51°E region, volatile element constraints provide a valuable test of models for the origins of mantle heterogeneities in this region. Here, we present new data for nine rare basaltic glass samples from the 48°–51°E region, which enable careful assessment of the effects of primary versus secondary processes on the glass volatile contents. These samples are strongly affected by variable extents of carbon degassing, and shallow assimilation of Cl‐rich fluid, but also reveal consistently high H 2 O/Ce ratios (458.8 ± 14.9), among the highest in MORBs, that cannot be explained by late‐stage secondary processes, crustal assimilation, or simple melting of peridotite mantle at variable depths. Instead, the high H 2 O/Ce ratios are features of the mantle source composition. The 48°–51°E region is notably more depleted in highly incompatible trace elements relative to other regions of the SWIR, although this depletion is not apparent in H 2 O, which is similarly abundant throughout the SWIR. We link the high H 2 O/Ce ratios in these glasses with other trace element characteristics diagnostic of subduction and fluid addition, suggesting that the mantle source reflects signatures of a refractory mantle residue that previously melted within a subduction zone.

Wang, Wei↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climatology of the Vertical Profiles of Polarimetric Radar Variables and Retrieved Microphysical Parameters in Continental/Tropical MCSs and Landfalling Hurricanes

Most existing cloud models tend to overestimate the size of cloud ice particles and underestimate their concentration. This emphasizes the need to provide a reliable observational reference to optimize cloud model performance, particularly in areas of high concentration of ice at high altitudes. The dual-polarization radars give the community a unique opportunity to quantify cloud ice with a good accuracy using polarimetric radar retrievals. Here, in this study, we utilize the network of operational WSR-88D radars to build a climatology of the vertical profiles of radar variables, such as radar reflectivity Z, differential reflectivity Z DR , and specific differential phase K DP as well as the radar-retrieved vertical profiles of ice water content (IWC) above the melting layer and liquid water content below it, mean volume diameter D m , and total number concentration N t of ice and liquid particles. Such climatology was created for continental/marine mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and tropical cyclones including hurricanes. The dataset includes 13 continental MCSs, 10 marine MCSs, and 11 tropical cyclones. Separate statistics of the “background” vertical profiles and the ones associated with high IWC aloft have been obtained in the course of this study. It is shown that continental MCSs exhibit larger size of ice in lower concentration aloft compared to the marine MCSs and especially tropical cyclones/hurricanes. A combination of high KDP and low Z aloft signifies lower D m , higher N t , and often substantial IWC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Differential Trends in Iron Concentrations of Boreal Streams Linked to Catchment Characteristics

Increasing iron (Fe) concentrations have been reported for freshwaters across northern Europe over the last decades. This increase, together with elevated concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), leads to browning of freshwaters, which affects aquatic organisms, ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and brings challenges to drinking water production. However, how such increasing trends in stream Fe concentrations reflect the contribution of different catchment sources remains poorly resolved. Here, we explored how catchment characteristics, that is, mires and coniferous soils, regulate spatial and temporal patterns of Fe in a boreal stream network. For this, we determined Fe speciation in riparian and mire soils, and studied temporal Fe dynamics in soil-water and stream-water over a span of 18 years. Positive Fe trends were found in the solution of the riparian soil, while no long-term trend was observed in the mire. These differences were reflected in stream-water, where three headwater streams dominated by coniferous cover also displayed positive Fe trends, whereas the mire dominated stream showed no trend. Surprisingly, the majority of higher order streams showed declining Fe trends, despite long-term increases in DOC. In addition, we found that an extreme drought event led to a prolonged release of Fe and DOC from the riparian soils, that could have long-term effects on stream Fe concentrations. Our results show that riparian forest soils can be major contributors to ongoing increases in freshwater Fe concentrations and that drought can further promote the release of Fe from organic soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Origin of 182 W Anomalies in Ocean Island Basalts

Ocean island basalts (OIB) show variable 182 W deficits that have been attributed to either early differentiation of the mantle or core-mantle interaction. However, 182 W variations may also reflect nucleosynthetic isotope heterogeneity inherited from Earth's building material, which would be evident from correlated 182 W and 183 W anomalies. Some datasets for OIB indeed show hints for such correlated variations, meaning that a nucleosynthetic origin of W isotope anomalies in OIB cannot be excluded. We report high-precision W isotope data for OIB from Samoa and Hawaii, which confirm previously reported 182 W deficits for these samples, but also demonstrate that none of these samples have resolvable 183 W anomalies. These data therefore rule out a nucleosynthetic origin of the 182 W deficits in OIB, which most likely reflect the entrainment of either core material or an overabundance of late-accreted materials within OIB mantle sources. If these processes occurred over Earth's history, they may have also been responsible for shifting the 182 W composition of the bulk mantle to its modern-day value. We also report Mo isotope data for some Hawaiian OIB, which reveal no resolved nucleosynthetic Mo isotopic anomalies. This is consistent with inheritance of 182 W deficits in OIB from the addition of either core or late-accreted material, but only if these materials have a non-carbonaceous (NC) meteorite-like heritage. As such, these data rule out significant contributions of carbonaceous chondrite (CC)-like materials to either Earth's core or late accretion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Near‐Cloud Aerosol Retrieval Using Machine Learning Techniques, and Implied Direct Radiative Effects

Abstract There is a lack of satellite‐based aerosol retrievals in the vicinity of low‐topped clouds, mainly because reflectance from aerosols is overwhelmed by three‐dimensional cloud radiative effects. To account for cloud radiative effects on reflectance observations, we develop a Convolutional Neural Network and retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD) with 100–500 m horizontal resolution for all cloud‐free regions regardless of their distances to clouds. The retrieval uncertainty is 0.01 + 5%AOD, and the mean bias is approximately −2%. In an application to satellite observations, aerosol hygroscopic growth due to humidification near clouds enhances AOD by 100% in regions within 1 km of cloud edges. The humidification effect leads to an overall 55% increase in the clear‐sky aerosol direct radiative effect. Although this increase is based on a case study, it highlights the importance of aerosol retrievals in near‐cloud regions, and the need to incorporate the humidification effect in radiative forcing estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Internal Structure of the Central Garlock Fault Zone From Ridgecrest Aftershocks Recorded by Dense Linear Seismic Arrays

Abstract We provide high‐resolution seismic imaging of the central Garlock fault using data recorded by two dense seismic arrays that cross the Ridgecrest rupture zone (B4) and the Garlock fault (A5). Analyses of fault zone head waves and P ‐wave delay times at array A5 show that the Garlock fault is a sharp bimaterial interface with P waves traveling ∼5% faster in the northern crustal block. The across‐fault velocity contrast agrees with regional tomography models and generates clear P ‐wave reflections in waveforms recorded by array B4. Kirchhoff migration of the reflected waves indicates a near‐vertical fault between 2 and 6 km depth. The P ‐wave delay times imply a ∼300‐m‐wide transition zone near the Garlock fault surface trace beneath array A5, offset to the side with faster velocities. The results provide important constraints for derivations of earthquake properties, simulations of ruptures and ground motion, and future imaging studies associated with the Garlock fault.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Observations of Mantle Seismic Anisotropy Using Array Techniques: Shear-Wave Splitting of Beamformed SmKS Phases

Shear-wave splitting measurements are commonly used to resolve seismic anisotropy in both the upper and lowermost mantle. Typically, such techniques are applied to SmKS phases that have reflected (m-1) times off the underside of the core-mantle boundary before being recorded. Practical constraints for shear-wave splitting studies include the limited number of suitable phases as well as the large fraction of available data discarded because of poor signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) or large measurement uncertainties. Array techniques such as beamforming are commonly used in observational seismology to enhance SNRs, but have not been applied before to improve SmKS signal strength and coherency for shear wave splitting studies. Here, we investigate how a beamforming methodology, based on slowness and backazimuth vespagrams to determine the most coherent incoming wave direction, can improve shear-wave splitting measurement confidence intervals. Through the analysis of real and synthetic seismograms, we show that (a) the splitting measurements obtained from the beamformed seismograms (beams) reflect an average of the single-station splitting parameters that contribute to the beam; (b) the beams have (on average) more than twice as large SNRs than the single-station seismograms that contribute to the beam; (c) the increased SNRs allow the reliable measurement of shear wave splitting parameters from beams down to average single-station SNRs of 1.3. Beamforming may thus be helpful to more reliably measure splitting due to upper mantle anisotropy. Moreover, here we show that beamforming holds potential to greatly improve detection of lowermost mantle anisotropy by demonstrating differential SKS–SKKS splitting analysis using beamformed USArray data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Moisture‐Budget Drivers of Global Projections of Meteorological Drought From Multiple GCM Large Ensembles

Future projections of global meteorological drought are evaluated in the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, including an evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget, conditioned on drought years. Drought is defined as 5‐year running‐mean annual precipitation below some threshold, for example, 10th percentile. Drought increases in frequency over the subtropics, in addition to certain tropical regions, consistent with previous studies. Here, the moisture‐budget decomposition allows drought to be defined as mean‐flow, eddy, or feedback droughts, depending on which term in the equation contributes the largest negative interannual anomaly. In the historical climate, mean‐flow droughts constitute most droughts at low latitudes; eddy droughts are equally common at higher latitudes; feedback droughts (i.e., droughts exacerbated by land–atmosphere feedbacks) constitute almost all droughts in water‐limited subtropical/Mediterranean regions. The future drought increases are predominantly due to increases in feedback droughts in regions where these droughts are common historically but also over the Amazon. However, over most Mediterranean‐type regions mean‐flow droughts are also large contributors, resulting from dynamics. Eddy droughts also contribute to future increases along the equatorward flanks of historical eddy‐driven jets, likely reflecting poleward shifts therein. Model uncertainty is particularly large over the Amazon and Australia, a reflection of model diversity in processes associated with land‐atmosphere interaction. Based on these results, an availability of 3‐D atmospheric data from a wider swath of global climate model large ensembles could help constrain global drought projections based on the representation of drought mechanisms in the historical climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergent Trends Complicate the Interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

Abstract Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationary climate conditions, either naturally occurring or forced by climate change. Here we investigate the emerging climatology and associated trends in drought classes defined by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product that, since 2000, has been used to inform drought management in the United States. The USDM classifies drought intensity based in part on threshold percentiles in key hydroclimate quantities. Here we assess how those USDM‐defined drought threshold percentiles have changed over the last 23 years, examining precipitation, runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and near‐surface air temperature. We also assess underlying trends in the frequency of drought classifications across the U.S. Our analysis suggests that the frequency of drought class occurrence is exceeding the threshold percentiles defined by the USDM in a number of regions in the United States, particularly in the American West, where the last 23 years have emerged as a prolonged dry period. These trends are also reflected in percentile‐based thresholds in precipitation, runoff, SM, TWS, VPD, and temperature. Our results emphasize that while the USDM appears to be accurately reflecting observed nonstationarity in the physical climate, such trends raise critical questions about whether and how drought diagnosis, classification, and monitoring should address long‐term intervals of wet and dry periods or trends.

Geology↗