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At least 883 records · Page 49

Evaluation of the Event Driven Phenology Model Coupled with the VegET Evapotranspiration Model Through Comparisons with Reference Datasets in a Spatially Explicit Manner

A new model coupling scheme with remote sensing data assimilation was developed for estimation of daily actual evapotranspiration (ET). The scheme represents a mix of the VegET, a physically based model to estimate ET from a water balance, and an event driven phenology model (EDPM), where the EDPM is an empirically derived crop specific model capable of producing seasonal trajectories of canopy attributes. In this experiment, the scheme was deployed in a spatially explicit manner within the croplands of the Northern Great Plains. The evaluation was carried out using 2007-2009 land surface forcing data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and crop maps derived from remotely sensed data of NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We compared the canopy parameters produced by the phenology model with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data derived from the MODIS nadir bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) adjusted reflectance (NBAR) product. The expectations of the EDPM performance in prognostic mode were met, producing determination coefficient (r2) of 0.8 +/-.0.15. Model estimates of NDVI yielded root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.1 +/-.0.035 for the entire study area. Retrospective correction of canopy dynamics with MODIS NDVI brought the errors down to just below 10% of observed data range. The ET estimates produced by the coupled scheme were compared with ones from the MODIS land product suite. The expected r2=0.7 +/-.15 and RMSE = 11.2 +/-.4 mm per 8 days were met and even exceeded by the coupling scheme0 functioning in both prognostic and retrospective modes. Minor setbacks of the EDPM and VegET performance (r2 about 0.5 and additional 30 % of RMSR) were found on the peripheries of the study area and attributed to the insufficient EDPM training and to spatially varying accuracy of crop maps. Overall the experiment provided sufficient evidence of soundness and robustness of the EDPM and VegET coupling scheme, assuring its potential for spatially explicit applications.

Kovalskyy, V.↗

Feeling Gravity's Pull: Gravity Modeling. The Gravity Field of Mars

Most people take the constant presence of gravitys pull for granted. However, the Earth's gravitational strength actually varies from location to location. This variation occurs because mass, which influences an object's gravitational pull, is not evenly distributed within the planet. Changes in topography, such as glacial movement, an earthquake, or a rise in the ocean level, can subtly affect the gravity field. An accurate measurement of the Earth's gravity field helps us understand the distribution of mass beneath the surface. This insight can assist us in locating petroleum, mineral deposits, ground water, and other valuable substances. Gravity mapping can also help notice or verify changes in sea surface height and other ocean characteristics. Such changes may indicate climate change from polar ice melting and other phenomena. In addition, gravity mapping can indicate how land moves under the surface after earthquakes and other plate tectonic processes. Finally, changes in the Earth's gravity field might indicate a shift in water distribution that could affect agriculture, water supplies for population centers, and long-term weather prediction. Scientists can map out the Earth's gravity field by watching satellite orbits. When a satellite shifts in vertical position, it might be passing over an area where gravity changes in strength. Gravity is only one factor that may shape a satellite's orbital path. To derive a gravity measurement from satellite movement, scientists must remove other factors that might affect a satellite's position: 1. Drag from atmospheric friction. 2. Pressure from solar radiation as it heads toward Earth and. as it is reflected off the surface of the Earth 3. Gravitational pull from the Sun, the Moon, and other planets in the Solar System. 4. The effect of tides. 5. Relativistic effects. Scientists must also correct for the satellite tracking process. For example, the tracking signal must be corrected for refraction through the atmosphere of the Earth. Supercomputers can calculate the effect of gravity for specific locations in space following a mathematical process known as spherical harmonics, which quantifies the gravity field of a planetary body. The process is based on Laplace's fundamental differential equation of gravity. The accuracy of a spherical harmonic solution is rated by its degree and order. Minute variations in gravity are measured against the geoid, a surface of constant gravity acceleration at mean sea level. The geoid reference gravity model strength includes the central body gravitational attraction (9.8 m/sq s) and a geopotential variation in latitude partially caused by the rotation of the Earth. The rotational effect modifies the shape of the geoid to be more like an ellipsoid, rather than a perfect, circle. Variations of gravity strength from the ellipsoidal reference model are measured in units called milli-Galileos (mGals). One mGal equals 10(exp -5) m/sq s. Research projects have also measured the gravity fields of other planetary bodies, as noted in the user profile that follows. From this information, we may make inferences about our own planet's internal structure and evolution. Moreover, mapping the gravity fields of other planets can help scientists plot the most fuel-efficient course for spacecraft expeditions to those planets.

Lemoine, Frank↗

Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: Offshore Wind User Reference Guide

The Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed by NREL and MRG & Associates, is a spreadsheet based input-output tool. JEDI is meant to be a user friendly and transparent tool to estimate potential economic impacts supported by the development and operation of offshore wind projects. This guide describes how to use the model as well as technical information such as methodology, limitations, and data sources.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Flight Results of the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Aircraft with Adaptation to a Longitudinally Destabilized Plant

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. The goal for the adaptive system is to provide an increase in survivability in the event that these extreme changes occur. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane. The adaptive element was incorporated into a dynamic inversion controller with explicit reference model-following. As a test the system was subjected to an abrupt change in plant stability simulating a destabilizing failure. Flight evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to stabilize the vehicle and reestablish good onboard reference model-following. Flight evaluation with the simulated destabilizing failure and adaptation engaged showed improvement in the vehicle stability margins. The convergent properties of this initial system warrant additional improvement since continued maneuvering caused continued adaptation change. Compared to the non-adaptive system the adaptive system provided better closed-loop behavior with improved matching of the onboard reference model. A detailed discussion of the flight results is presented.

Bosworth, John T.↗

TU-G-303-00: Radiomics: Advances in the Use of Quantitative Imaging Used for Predictive Modeling

‘Radiomics’ refers to studies that extract a large amount of quantitative information from medical imaging studies as a basis for characterizing a specific aspect of patient health. Radiomics models can be built to address a wide range of outcome predictions, clinical decisions, basic cancer biology, etc. For example, radiomics models can be built to predict the aggressiveness of an imaged cancer, cancer gene expression characteristics (radiogenomics), radiation therapy treatment response, etc. Technically, radiomics brings together quantitative imaging, computer vision/image processing, and machine learning. In this symposium, speakers will discuss approaches to radiomics investigations, including: longitudinal radiomics, radiomics combined with other biomarkers (‘pan-omics’), radiomics for various imaging modalities (CT, MRI, and PET), and the use of registered multi-modality imaging datasets as a basis for radiomics. There are many challenges to the eventual use of radiomics-derived methods in clinical practice, including: standardization and robustness of selected metrics, accruing the data required, building and validating the resulting models, registering longitudinal data that often involve significant patient changes, reliable automated cancer segmentation tools, etc. Despite the hurdles, results achieved so far indicate the tremendous potential of this general approach to quantifying and using data from medical images. Specific applications of radiomics to be presented in this symposium will include: the longitudinal analysis of patients with low-grade gliomas; automatic detection and assessment of patients with metastatic bone lesions; image-based monitoring of patients with growing lymph nodes; predicting radiotherapy outcomes using multi-modality radiomics; and studies relating radiomics with genomics in lung cancer and glioblastoma. Learning Objectives: Understanding the basic image features that are often used in radiomic models. Understanding requirements for reliable radiomic models, including robustness of metrics, adequate predictive accuracy, and generalizability. Understanding the methodology behind radiomic-genomic (’radiogenomics’) correlations. Research supported by NIH (US), CIHR (Canada), and NSERC (Canada)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Electron-Conformational Model of Ryanodine Receptors of the Heart Cell

The main ideas of an electron-conformational (EC) model of ligand-activated ryanodine channels (RyR) that reduces many degrees of freedom of this gigantic nanoscopic molecular complex to two so-called electron and conformational degrees of freedom are presented. In the toy model, the conformational potential or energy profile of the RyR channel represents two branches that describe the dependence of energy on the conformational coordinate (reaction coordinate) in the initial and ligand-activated states, respectively. A model extension that takes into account both the tetrameric structure of the RyR channel and additional (orthogonal) rotational conformational mode has been considered. The EC model has been demonstrated to give a biophysical basis to the traditional phenomenological model of Markov chains. To demonstrate the possibilities of the EC model, we refer to examples of model description of the dynamics of isolated RyR channels and clusters of RyR channels in release units of the heart cell.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The verification and uncertainty quantification of surrogate models used for structural analysis

High fidelity modeling of complex systems can require large finite element models to capture the physics of interest. Typically these high-order models take an excessively long time to run. For important studies such as model validation and uncertainty quantification, where probabilistic measures of the response are required, a large number of simulations of the high fidelity model with different parameters are necessary. In addition, some environments, such as an extensive random vibration excitation, require a long simulation time to capture the entire event. A process that produces a highly efficient model from the original high order model is necessary to enable these analyses. These highly efficient models are referred to as surrogate models, for their purpose is to represent the main physics that is of importance, but decrease the computational burden. A critical aspect of any surrogate model is how faithfully the efficient model represents the original high-order model. This paper describes the process for verifying a surrogate model using response quantities of interest and quantifying the introduced uncertainties in the use of the surrogate model. This is done to help any analyst if they use any surrogate model; such has, Craig-Bampton Reduc tions, POD, etc.

Ross, Michael↗

DAVINCI: Venus Atmospheric Model Comparisons

The Deep Atmosphere Venus Investigation of Noble gases, Chemistry, and Imaging(DAVINCI) mission aims to answer long-standing questions regarding Venus’ origin using Zephyr, an atmospheric descent probe. Zephyr will be the first probe to take high-resolution aerial photographs of a mountainous tesserae surface as it descends over the Alpha Regio highlands region, which has the oldest surfaces of Venus. The Zephyr’s descent trajectory that determines the touchdown in the Alpha Regio, which is crucial for the DAVINCI mission, depends on Venus’ atmospheric properties and winds. Unfortunately, the atmospheric data for Venus from previous missions is sparse. Therefore, it is essential to consider various atmospheric models and scenarios from past flight data to predict Zephyr’s flight performance, specifically landing ellipse. To this end, this work compares three atmospheric models: the Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM), the Venus Climate Database(VCD), and an empirical wind model developed by Ralph Lorenz for the DAVINCI trajectory simulation and modeling. This paper compares the mean and variations of different atmospheric properties and winds from these atmospheric models. In addition, this work combines the atmospheric properties and the wind variability from the Venus-GRAM with the winds from the Lorenz-based model to have more stressing Venus wind dispersions that allow for more conservative trajectory analysis. Furthermore, this work relies on the DAVINCI landing ellipse size as a metric to measure how robust the trajectory analysis will be to the change in the atmospheric properties and winds of the Venus atmosphere.

Pardha Sai Chadalavada↗

Data for KETCHUP: Parameterizing of Large-Scale Kinetic Models Using Multiple Datasets with Different Reference States

Repository for Kinetic Estimation Tool Capturing Heterogeneous Datasets Using Pyomo (KETCHUP), a flexible parameter estimation tool that leverages a primal-dual interior-point algorithm to solve a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem that identifies a set of parameters capable of recapitulating the steady-state fluxes and concentrations in wild-type and perturbed metabolic networks. KETCHUP can use K-FIT [2] input files. Example K-FIT input files are located in the K-FIT repository at https://github.com/maranasgroup/K-FIT.

Metabolomics↗

WE-E-BRE-01: An Image-Based Skeletal Dosimetry Model for the ICRP Reference Adult Female - Internal Electron Sources

Purpose: Limitations seen in previous skeletal dosimetry models, which are still employed in commonly used software today, include the lack of consideration of electron escape and cross-fire from cortical bone, the modeling of infinite spongiosa, the disregard of the effect of varying cellularity on active marrow self-irradiation, and the lack of use of the more recent ICRP definition of a 50 micron surrogate tissue region for the osteoprogenitor cells - shallow marrow. These limitations were addressed in the present dosimetry model. Methods: Electron transport was completed to determine specific absorbed fractions to active marrow and shallow marrow of the skeletal regions of the adult female. The bone macrostructure was obtained from the whole-body hybrid computational phantom of the UF series of reference phantoms, while the bone microstructure was derived from microCT images of skeletal region samples taken from a 45 year-old female cadaver. The target tissue regions were active marrow and shallow marrow. The source tissues were active marrow, inactive marrow, trabecular bone volume, trabecular bone surfaces, cortical bone volume and cortical bone surfaces. The marrow cellularity was varied from 10 to 100 percent for active marrow self-irradiation. A total of 33 discrete electron energies, ranging from 1 keV to 10 MeV, were either simulated or modeled analytically. Results: The method of combining macro- and microstructure absorbed fractions calculated using MCNPX electron transport was found to yield results similar to those determined with the PIRT model for the UF adult male in the Hough et al. study. Conclusion: The calculated skeletal averaged absorbed fractions for each source-target combination were found to follow similar trends of more recent dosimetry models (image-based models) and did not follow current models used in nuclear medicine dosimetry at high energies (due to that models use of an infinite expanse of trabecular spongiosa)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Advanced Control Algorithms for Compensating the Phase Distortion Due to Transport Delay in Human-Machine Systems

The desire to create more complex visual scenes in modern flight simulators outpaces recent increases in processor speed. As a result, simulation transport delay remains a problem. New approaches for compensating the transport delay in a flight simulator have been developed and are presented in this report. The lead/lag filter, the McFarland compensator and the Sobiski/Cardullo state space filter are three prominent compensators. The lead/lag filter provides some phase lead, while introducing significant gain distortion in the same frequency interval. The McFarland predictor can compensate for much longer delay and cause smaller gain error in low frequencies than the lead/lag filter, but the gain distortion beyond the design frequency interval is still significant, and it also causes large spikes in prediction. Though, theoretically, the Sobiski/Cardullo predictor, a state space filter, can compensate the longest delay with the least gain distortion among the three, it has remained in laboratory use due to several limitations. The first novel compensator is an adaptive predictor that makes use of the Kalman filter algorithm in a unique manner. In this manner the predictor can accurately provide the desired amount of prediction, while significantly reducing the large spikes caused by the McFarland predictor. Among several simplified online adaptive predictors, this report illustrates mathematically why the stochastic approximation algorithm achieves the best compensation results. A second novel approach employed a reference aircraft dynamics model to implement a state space predictor on a flight simulator. The practical implementation formed the filter state vector from the operator s control input and the aircraft states. The relationship between the reference model and the compensator performance was investigated in great detail, and the best performing reference model was selected for implementation in the final tests. Theoretical analyses of data from offline simulations with time delay compensation show that both novel predictors effectively suppress the large spikes caused by the McFarland compensator. The phase errors of the three predictors are not significant. The adaptive predictor yields greater gain errors than the McFarland predictor for short delays (96 and 138 ms), but shows smaller errors for long delays (186 and 282 ms). The advantage of the adaptive predictor becomes more obvious for a longer time delay. Conversely, the state space predictor results in substantially smaller gain error than the other two predictors for all four delay cases.

Guo, Liwen↗

Towards a Comparative Assessment of Data-Driven Process Models in Health Information Technology

Process mining for conformance analysis focuses on comparing a reference process model against a data-driven process model that is generated via log files from information technology systems. While this approach is helpful when there is an existing process model in an organization, it leaves the question of what to do in the absence of a complete reference process model unanswered. In this paper, we present a comparative assessment approach that combines process mining, process mapping for dimensionality reduction, and statistical analysis. Our goal is to find similarities and dissimilarities in data-driven process models among U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities to assess process conformance among different healthcare facilities, which can help assess the standardization of care. We illustrate our approach by applying it to two clinical radiology order process models generated by two similar facilities. Our results demonstrate statistical similarities in the standardization of care among those two facilities.

Klasky, Hilda↗

Solar Models in Light of New High Metallicity Measurements from Solar Wind Data

We study the impact of new metallicity measurements, from solar wind data, on the solar model. The “solar modeling problem” refers to the persisting discrepancy between helioseismological observations and predictions of solar models computed implementing state-of-the-art photospheric abundances. We critically reassess the problem, in particular considering the new set of abundances of von Steiger and Zurbuchen, determined through the in situ collection of solar wind samples from polar coronal holes. This new set of abundances indicates a solar metallicity Z{sub ⊙}⩾0.0196±0.0014, significantly higher than the currently established value. The new values hint at an abundance of volatile elements (i.e., C, N, O, Ne) close to previous results of Grevesse and Sauval, whereas the abundance of refractory elements (i.e., Mg, Si, S, Fe) is considerably increased. Using the Linear Solar Model formalism, we determine the variation of helioseismological observables in response to the changes in elemental abundances, in order to explore the consistency of these new measurements with constraints from helioseismology. We find that for observables that are particularly sensitive to the abundance of volatile elements, in particular the radius of the convective zone boundary (CZB) and the sound speed around the radius of CZB, improved agreement over previous models is obtained. Conversely, the high abundance of refractories correlates with a higher core temperature, resulting in an overproduction of neutrinos and a huge increase in the surface helium abundance. We conclude that the “solar modeling problem” remains unsolved.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reference Management Methodologies for Large Structural Models at Kennedy Space Center

There have been many challenges associated with modeling some of NASA KSC's largest structures. Given the size of the welded structures here at KSC, it was critically important to properly organize model struc.ture and carefully manage references. Additionally, because of the amount of hardware to be installed on these structures, it was very important to have a means to coordinate between different design teams and organizations, check for interferences, produce consistent drawings, and allow for simple release processes. Facing these challenges, the modeling team developed a unique reference management methodology and model fidelity methodology. This presentation will describe the techniques and methodologies that were developed for these projects. The attendees will learn about KSC's reference management and model fidelity methodologies for large structures. The attendees will understand the goals of these methodologies. The attendees will appreciate the advantages of developing a reference management methodology.

Jones, Corey↗

Verification of the Skorohod-Olevsky Viscous Sintering (SOVS) Model

Sintering refers to a manufacturing process through which mechanically pressed bodies of ceramic (and sometimes metal) powders are heated to drive densification thereby removing the inherit porosity of green bodies. As the body densifies through the sintering process, the ensuing material flow leads to macroscopic deformations of the specimen and as such the final configuration differs form the initial. Therefore, as with any manufacturing step, there is substantial interest in understanding and being able to model the sintering process to predict deformation and residual stress. Efforts in this regard have been pursued for face seals, gear wheels, and consumer products like wash-basins. To understand the sintering process, a variety of modeling approaches have been pursued at different scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantification of flexoelectricity in PbTiO 3 /SrTiO 3 superlattice polar vortices using machine learning and phase-field modeling

Flexoelectricity refers to electric polarization generated by heterogeneous mechanical strains, namely strain gradients, in materials of arbitrary crystal symmetries. Despite more than 50 years of work on this effect, an accurate identification of its coupling strength remains an experimental challenge for most materials, which impedes its wide recognition. Here, we show the presence of flexoelectricity in the recently discovered polar vortices in PbTiO 3 /SrTiO 3 superlattices based on a combination of machine-learning analysis of the atomic-scale electron microscopy imaging data and phenomenological phase-field modeling. By scrutinizing the influence of flexocoupling on the global vortex structure, we match theory and experiment using computer vision methodologies to determine the flexoelectric coefficients for PbTiO 3 and SrTiO 3 . Here, our findings highlight the inherent, nontrivial role of flexoelectricity in the generation of emergent complex polarization morphologies and demonstrate a viable approach to delineating this effect, conducive to the deeper exploration of both topics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) (V.3.1) (Technical Reference Manual)

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and experimentally validated first-order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet res, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety and to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM version 3.1. There have been several impactful updates since version 3.0. HyRAM 3.1 contains a correction to use the volume fraction for two-phase speed of sound calculations; this only affects cryogenic releases in which two-phase ow (vapor and liquid) is predicted in the orifice. Other changes include clarifications that inputs for tank pressure should be given in absolute pressure, not gauge pressure. Additionally, the interface now rejects invalid inputs to probability distributions, and the less accurate single-point radiative source model selection was removed from the interface.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Four-D global reference atmosphere

Model generates values for pressure, density, temperature, and winds from surface level to orbital altitudes. Program can define altitude profiles of atmospheric parameters for simulated trajectory.

Robertson, B.↗