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At least 883 records · Page 49

Imprint of DESI fiber assignment on the anisotropic power spectrum of emission line galaxies

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), a multiplexed fiber-fed spectrograph, is a Stage-IV ground-based dark energy experiment aiming to measure redshifts for 29 million Emission-Line Galaxies (ELG), 4 million Luminous Red Galaxies (LRG), and 2 million Quasi-Stellar Objects (QSO). The survey design includes a pattern of tiling on the sky, the locations of the fiber positioners in the focal plane of the telescope, and an observation strategy determined by a fiber assignment algorithm that optimizes the allocation of fibers to targets. This strategy allows a given region to be covered on average five times for a five-year survey, with a typical variation of about 1.5 about the mean, which imprints a spatially-dependent pattern on the galaxy clustering. In this study, we investigate the systematic effects of the fiber assignment coverage on the anisotropic galaxy clustering of ELGs and show that, in the absence of any corrections, it leads to discrepancies of order ten percent on large scales for the power spectrum multipoles. We introduce a method where objects in a random catalog are assigned a coverage, and the mean density is separately computed for each coverage factor. We show that this method reduces, but does not eliminate the effect. We next investigate the angular dependence of the contaminated signal, arguing that it is mostly localized to purely transverse modes. We demonstrate that the cleanest way to remove the contaminating signal is to perform an analysis of the anisotropic power spectrum P( k ,μ) and remove the lowest μ bin, leaving μ > 0 modes accurate at the few-percent level. Here, μ is the cosine of the angle between the line-of-sight and the direction of $\vec k$. Lastly, we also investigate two alternative definitions of the random catalog and show that they are comparable but less effective than the coverage randoms method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SAMBA: Sparse Approximation of Moment-Based Arbitrary Polynomial Chaos

A new arbitrary Polynomial Chaos (aPC) method is presented for moderately high-dimensional problems characterised by limited input data availability. The proposed methodology improves the algorithm of aPC and extends the method, that was previously only introduced as tensor product expansion, to moderately high-dimensional stochastic problems. The fundamental idea of aPC is to use the statistical moments of the input random variables to develop the polynomial chaos expansion. This approach provides the possibility to propagate continuous or discrete probability density functions and also histograms (data sets) as long as their moments exist, are finite and the determinant of the moment matrix is strictly positive. For cases with limited data availability, this approach avoids bias and fitting errors caused by wrong assumptions. In this work, an alternative way to calculate the aPC is suggested, which provides the optimal polynomials, Gaussian quadrature collocation points and weights from the moments using only a handful of matrix operations on the Hankel matrix of moments. It can therefore be implemented without requiring prior knowledge about statistical data analysis or a detailed understanding of the mathematics of polynomial chaos expansions. The extension to more input variables suggested in this work, is an anisotropic and adaptive version of Smolyak's algorithm that is solely based on the moments of the input probability distributions. It is referred to as SAMBA (PC), which is short for Sparse Approximation of Moment-Based Arbitrary Polynomial Chaos. It is illustrated that for moderately high-dimensional problems (up to 20 different input variables or histograms) SAMBA can significantly simplify the calculation of sparse Gaussian quadrature rules. SAMBA's efficiency for multivariate functions with regard to data availability is further demonstrated by analysing higher order convergence and accuracy for a set of nonlinear test functions with 2, 5 and 10 different input distributions or histograms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Superspin renormalization and slow relaxation in random spin systems

We develop an excited-state real-space renormalization group (RSRG-X) formalism to describe the dynamics of conserved densities in randomly interacting spin-12 systems. Our formalism is suitable for systems with U(1) and Z2 symmetries, and we apply it to chains of randomly positioned spins with dipolar XX+YY interactions, as arise in Rydberg quantum simulators and other platforms. The formalism generates a sequence of effective Hamiltonians that provide approximate descriptions for dynamics on successively smaller energy scales. These effective Hamiltonians involve “superspins”: two-level collective degrees of freedom constructed from (anti)aligned microscopic spins. Conserved densities can then be understood as relaxing via coherent collective spin flips. For the well-studied simpler case of randomly interacting nearest-neighbor XX+YY chains, the superspins reduce to single spins. Our formalism also leads to a numerical method capable of simulating the dynamics up to an otherwise inaccessible combination of large system size and late time. Focusing on disorder-averaged infinite-temperature autocorrelation functions, in particular the spin survival probability Sp¯(t), we demonstrate quantitative agreement between our algorithm and exact diagonalization (ED) at low but nonzero frequencies. Such agreement holds for chains with nearest-neighbor, next-nearest-neighbor, and long-range dipolar interactions. Our results indicate decay of Sp¯(t) slower than any power law and feature no significant deviation from the ∼1/ln2(t) asymptote expected from the infinite-randomness fixed-point of the nearest-neighbor model. We also apply the RSRG-X formalism to two-dimensional long-range systems of moderate size and find slow late-time decay of Sp¯(t).

Zhao, Yi J↗

Observer Evaluation of a Metal Artifact Reduction Algorithm Applied to Head and Neck Cone Beam Computed Tomographic Images

Purpose and Objectives: To quantify, through an observer study, the reduction in metal artifacts on cone beam computed tomographic (CBCT) images using a projection-interpolation algorithm, on images containing metal artifacts from dental fillings and implants in patients treated for head and neck (H&N) cancer. Methods and Materials: An interpolation-substitution algorithm was applied to H&N CBCT images containing metal artifacts from dental fillings and implants. Image quality with respect to metal artifacts was evaluated subjectively and objectively. First, 6 independent radiation oncologists were asked to rank randomly sorted blinded images (before and after metal artifact reduction) using a 5-point rating scale (1 = severe artifacts; 5 = no artifacts). Second, the standard deviation of different regions of interest (ROI) within each image was calculated and compared with the mean rating scores. Results: The interpolation-substitution technique successfully reduced metal artifacts in 70% of the cases. From a total of 60 images from 15 H&N cancer patients undergoing image guided radiation therapy, the mean rating score on the uncorrected images was 2.3 ± 1.1, versus 3.3 ± 1.0 for the corrected images. The mean difference in ranking score between uncorrected and corrected images was 1.0 (95% confidence interval: 0.9-1.2, P<.05). The standard deviation of each ROI significantly decreased after artifact reduction (P<.01). Moreover, a negative correlation between the mean rating score for each image and the standard deviation of the oral cavity and bilateral cheeks was observed. Conclusion: The interpolation-substitution algorithm is efficient and effective for reducing metal artifacts caused by dental fillings and implants on CBCT images, as demonstrated by the statistically significant increase in observer image quality ranking and by the decrease in ROI standard deviation between uncorrected and corrected images.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Sparse and Random Sampling Techniques for High-Resolution, Full-Field, BSS-Based Structural Dynamics Identification from Video

Video-based techniques for identification of structural dynamics have the advantage that they are very inexpensive to deploy compared to conventional accelerometer or strain gauge techniques. When structural dynamics from video is accomplished using full-field, high-resolution analysis techniques utilizing algorithms on the pixel time series such as principal components analysis and solutions to blind source separation the added benefit of high-resolution, full-field modal identification is achieved. An important property of video of vibrating structures is that it is particularly sparse. Typically video of vibrating structures has a dimensionality consisting of many thousands or even millions of pixels and hundreds to thousands of frames. However the motion of the vibrating structure can be described using only a few mode shapes and their associated time series. As a result, emerging techniques for sparse and random sampling such as compressive sensing should be applicable to performing modal identification on video. This work presents how full-field, high-resolution, structural dynamics identification frameworks can be coupled with compressive sampling. The techniques described in this work are demonstrated to be able to recover mode shapes from experimental video of vibrating structures when 70% to 90% of the frames from a video captured in the conventional manner are removed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Explicit time integration of the stiff chemical Langevin equations using computational singular perturbation

A stable explicit time-scale splitting algorithm for stiff chemical Langevin equations (CLEs) is developed, based on the concept of computational singular perturbation. The drift term of the CLE is projected onto basis vectors that span the fast and slow subdomains. The corresponding fast modes exhaust quickly, in the mean sense, and the system state then evolves, with a mean drift controlled by slow modes, on a random manifold. The drift-driven time evolution of the state due to fast exhausted modes is modeled algebraically as an exponential decay process, while that due to slow drift modes and diffusional processes is integrated explicitly. This enables time integration step sizes much larger than those required by typical explicit numerical methods for stiff stochastic differential equations. The algorithm is motivated and reported on, and extensive numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate its accuracy and stability with a number of model systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Scalable domain decomposition solvers for stochastic PDEs in high performance computing

Stochastic spectral finite element models of practical engineering systems may involve solutions of linear systems or linearized systems for non-linear problems with billions of unknowns. For stochastic modeling, it is therefore essential to design robust, parallel and scalable algorithms that can efficiently utilize high-performance computing to tackle such large-scale systems. Domain decomposition based iterative solvers can handle such systems. And though these algorithms exhibit excellent scalabilities, significant algorithmic and implementational challenges exist to extend them to solve extreme-scale stochastic systems using emerging computing platforms. Intrusive polynomial chaos expansion based domain decomposition algorithms are extended here to concurrently handle high resolution in both spatial and stochastic domains using an in-house implementation. Sparse iterative solvers with efficient preconditioners are employed to solve the resulting global and subdomain level local systems through multi-level iterative solvers. We also use parallel sparse matrix–vector operations to reduce the floating-point operations and memory requirements. Numerical and parallel scalabilities of these algorithms are presented for the diffusion equation having spatially varying diffusion coefficient modeled by a non-Gaussian stochastic process. Scalability of the solvers with respect to the number of random variables is also investigated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

End-to-end learning of multiple sequence alignments with differentiable Smith–Waterman

Abstract Motivation Multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) of homologous sequences contain information on structural and functional constraints and their evolutionary histories. Despite their importance for many downstream tasks, such as structure prediction, MSA generation is often treated as a separate pre-processing step, without any guidance from the application it will be used for. Results Here, we implement a smooth and differentiable version of the Smith–Waterman pairwise alignment algorithm that enables jointly learning an MSA and a downstream machine learning system in an end-to-end fashion. To demonstrate its utility, we introduce SMURF (Smooth Markov Unaligned Random Field), a new method that jointly learns an alignment and the parameters of a Markov Random Field for unsupervised contact prediction. We find that SMURF learns MSAs that mildly improve contact prediction on a diverse set of protein and RNA families. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that by connecting our differentiable alignment module to AlphaFold2 and maximizing predicted confidence, we can learn MSAs that improve structure predictions over the initial MSAs. Interestingly, the alignments that improve AlphaFold predictions are self-inconsistent and can be viewed as adversarial. This work highlights the potential of differentiable dynamic programming to improve neural network pipelines that rely on an alignment and the potential dangers of optimizing predictions of protein sequences with methods that are not fully understood. Availability and implementation Our code and examples are available at: https://github.com/spetti/SMURF. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Anatomical pulmonary magnetic resonance imaging segmentation for regional structure-function measurements of asthma

Purpose: Pulmonary magnetic-resonance-imaging (MRI) and x-ray computed-tomography have provided strong evidence of spatially and temporally persistent lung structure-function abnormalities in asthmatics. This has generated a shift in their understanding of lung disease and supports the use of imaging biomarkers as intermediate endpoints of asthma severity and control. In particular, pulmonary {sup 1}H MRI can be used to provide quantitative lung structure-function measurements longitudinally and in response to treatment. However, to translate such biomarkers of asthma, robust methods are required to segment the lung from pulmonary {sup 1}H MRI. Therefore, their objective was to develop a pulmonary {sup 1}H MRI segmentation algorithm to provide regional measurements with the precision and speed required to support clinical studies. Methods: The authors developed a method to segment the left and right lung from {sup 1}H MRI acquired in 20 asthmatics including five well-controlled and 15 severe poorly controlled participants who provided written informed consent to a study protocol approved by Health Canada. Same-day spirometry and plethysmography measurements of lung function and volume were acquired as well as {sup 1}H MRI using a whole-body radiofrequency coil and fast spoiled gradient-recalled echo sequence at a fixed lung volume (functional residual capacity + 1 l). We incorporated the left-to-right lung volume proportion prior based on the Potts model and derived a volume-proportion preserved Potts model, which was approximated through convex relaxation and further represented by a dual volume-proportion preserved max-flow model. The max-flow model led to a linear problem with convex and linear equality constraints that implicitly encoded the proportion prior. To implement the algorithm, {sup 1}H MRI was resampled into ∼3 × 3 × 3 mm{sup 3} isotropic voxel space. Two observers placed seeds on each lung and on the background of 20 pulmonary {sup 1}H MR images in a randomized dataset, on five occasions, five consecutive days in a row. Segmentation accuracy was evaluated using the Dice-similarity-coefficient (DSC) of the segmented thoracic cavity with comparison to five-rounds of manual segmentation by an expert observer. The authors also evaluated the root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) of the Euclidean distance between lung surfaces, the absolute, and percent volume error. Reproducibility was measured using the coefficient of variation (CoV) and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for two observers who repeated segmentation measurements five-times. Results: For five well-controlled asthmatics, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV{sub 1})/forced vital capacity (FVC) was 83% ± 7% and FEV{sub 1} was 86 ± 9%{sub pred}. For 15 severe, poorly controlled asthmatics, FEV{sub 1}/FV C = 66% ± 17% and FEV{sub 1} = 72 ± 27%{sub pred}. The DSC for algorithm and manual segmentation was 91% ± 3%, 92% ± 2% and 91% ± 2% for the left, right, and whole lung, respectively. RMSE was 4.0 ± 1.0 mm for each of the left, right, and whole lung. The absolute (percent) volume errors were 0.1 l (∼6%) for each of right and left lung and ∼0.2 l (∼6%) for whole lung. Intra- and inter-CoV (ICC) were <0.5% (>0.91%) for DSC and <4.5% (>0.93%) for RMSE. While segmentation required 10 s including ∼6 s for user interaction, the smallest detectable difference was 0.24 l for algorithm measurements which was similar to manual measurements. Conclusions: This lung segmentation approach provided the necessary and sufficient precision and accuracy required for research and clinical studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A new class of accelerated kinetic Monte Carlo algorithms

Kinetic ( aka dynamic) Monte Carlo (KMC) is a powerful method for numerical simulations of time dependent evolution applied in a wide range of contexts including biology, chemistry, physics, nuclear sciences, financial engineering, etc. Generally, in a KMC the time evolution takes place one event at a time, where the sequence of events and the time intervals between them are selected (or sampled) using random numbers. While details of the method implementation vary depending on the model and context, there exist certain common issues that limit KMC applicability in almost all applications. Among such is the notorious 'flicker problem' where the same states of the systems are repeatedly visited but otherwise no essential evolution is observed. In its simplest form the flicker problem arises when two states are connected to each other by transitions whose rates far exceed the rates of all other transitions out of the same two states. In such cases, the model will endlessly hop between the two states otherwise producing no meaningful evolution. In most situation of practical interest, the trapping cluster includes more than two states making the flicker somewhat more difficult to detect and to deal with. Several methods have been proposed to overcome or mitigate the flicker problem, exactly or approximately. Of the exact methods, the one proposed by Novotny is perhaps most relevant to our research. Novotny formulates the problem of escaping from a trapping cluster as a Markov system with absorbing states. Given an initial state inside the cluster, it is in principle possible to solve the Master Equation for the time dependent probabilities to find the walker in a given state (transient or absorbing) of the cluster at any time in the future. Novotny then proceeds to demonstrate implementation of his general method to trapping clusters containing the initial state plus one or two transient states and all of their absorbing states. Similar methods have been subsequently proposed in [refs] but applied in a different context. The most serious deficiency of the earlier methods is that size of the trapping cluster size is fixed and often too small to bring substantial simulation speedup. Furthermore, the overhead associated with solving for the probability distribution on the trapping cluster sometimes makes such simulations less efficient than the standard KMC. Here we report on a general and exact accelerated kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm generally applicable to arbitrary Markov models1. Two different implementations are attempted both based on incremental expansion of trapping sub-set of Markov states: (1) numerical solution of the Master Equation with absorbing states and (2) incremental graph reduction followed by randomization. Of the two implementations, the 2nd one performs better allowing, for the first time, to overcome trapping basins spanning several million Markov states. The new method is used for simulations of anomalous diffusion on a 2D substrate and of the kinetics of diffusive 1st order phase transformations in binary alloys. Depending on temperature and (alloy) super-saturation conditions, speedups of 3 to 7 orders of magnitude are demonstrated, with no compromise of simulation accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

TU-AB-BRA-03: Atlas-Based Algorithms with Local Registration-Goodness Weighting for MRI-Driven Electron Density Mapping

Purpose: To develop image-analysis algorithms to synthesize CT with accurate electron densities for MR-only radiotherapy of head & neck (H&N) and pelvis anatomies. Methods: CT and 3T-MRI (Philips, mDixon sequence) scans were randomly selected from a pool of H&N (n=11) and pelvis (n=12) anatomies to form an atlas. All MRIs were pre-processed to eliminate scanner and patient-induced intensity inhomogeneities and standardize their intensity histograms. CT and MRI for each patient were then co-registered to construct CT-MRI atlases. For more accurate CT-MR fusion, bone intensities in CT were suppressed to improve the similarity between CT and MRI. For a new patient, all CT-MRI atlases are deformed onto the new patients’ MRI initially. A newly-developed generalized registration error (GRE) metric was then calculated as a measure of local registration accuracy. The synthetic CT value at each point is a 1/GRE-weighted average of CTs from all CT-MR atlases. For evaluation, the mean absolute error (MAE) between the original and synthetic CT (generated in a leave-one-out scheme) was computed. The planning dose from the original and synthetic CT was also compared. Results: For H&N patients, MAE was 67±9, 114±22, and 116±9 HU over the entire-CT, air and bone regions, respectively. For pelvis anatomy, MAE was 47±5 and 146±14 for the entire and bone regions. In comparison with MIRADA medical, an FDA-approved registration tool, we found that our proposed registration strategy reduces MAE by ∼30% and ∼50% over the entire and bone regions, respectively. GRE-weighted strategy further lowers MAE by ∼15% to ∼40%. Our primary dose calculation also showed highly consistent results between the original and synthetic CT. Conclusion: We’ve developed a novel image-analysis technique to synthesize CT for H&N and pelvis anatomies. Our proposed image fusion strategy and GRE metric help generate more accurate synthetic CT using locally more similar atlases (Support: Philips Healthcare). The research is supported by Philips HealthCare.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Resilient distributed state estimation with mobile agents: overcoming Byzantine adversaries, communication losses, and intermittent measurements

Applications in environmental monitoring, surveillance and patrolling typically require a network of mobile agents to collectively gain information regarding the state of a static or dynamical process evolving over a region. However, these networks of mobile agents also introduce various challenges, including intermittent observations of the dynamical process, loss of communication links due to mobility and packet drops, and the potential for malicious or faulty behavior by some of the agents. The main contribution of this paper is the development of resilient, fully-distributed, and provably correct state estimation algorithms that simultaneously account for each of the above considerations, and in turn, offer a general framework for reasoning about state estimation problems in dynamic, failure-prone and adversarial environments. Specifically, we develop a simple switched linear observer for dealing with the issue of time-varying measurement models, and resilient filtering techniques for dealing with worst-case adversarial behavior subject to time-varying communication patterns among the agents. Here, our approach considers both communication patterns that recur in a deterministic manner, and patterns that are induced by random packet drops. For each scenario, we identify conditions on the dynamical system, the patrols, the nominal communication network topology, and the failure models that guarantee applicability of our proposed techniques. Finally, we complement our theoretical results with detailed simulations that illustrate the efficacy of our algorithms in the presence of the technical challenges described above.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Toward Fully Automated Multicriterial Plan Generation: A Prospective Clinical Study

Purpose: To prospectively compare plans generated with iCycle, an in-house-developed algorithm for fully automated multicriterial intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) beam profile and beam orientation optimization, with plans manually generated by dosimetrists using the clinical treatment planning system. Methods and Materials: For 20 randomly selected head-and-neck cancer patients with various tumor locations (of whom 13 received sequential boost treatments), we offered the treating physician the choice between an automatically generated iCycle plan and a manually optimized plan using standard clinical procedures. Although iCycle used a fixed “wish list” with hard constraints and prioritized objectives, the dosimetrists manually selected the beam configuration and fine tuned the constraints and objectives for each IMRT plan. Dosimetrists were not informed in advance whether a competing iCycle plan was made. The 2 plans were simultaneously presented to the physician, who then selected the plan to be used for treatment. For the patient group, differences in planning target volume coverage and sparing of critical tissues were quantified. Results: In 32 of 33 plan comparisons, the physician selected the iCycle plan for treatment. This highly consistent preference for the automatically generated plans was mainly caused by the improved sparing for the large majority of critical structures. With iCycle, the normal tissue complication probabilities for the parotid and submandibular glands were reduced by 2.4% ± 4.9% (maximum, 18.5%, P=.001) and 6.5% ± 8.3% (maximum, 27%, P=.005), respectively. The reduction in the mean oral cavity dose was 2.8 ± 2.8 Gy (maximum, 8.1 Gy, P=.005). For the swallowing muscles, the esophagus and larynx, the mean dose reduction was 3.3 ± 1.1 Gy (maximum, 9.2 Gy, P<.001). For 15 of the 20 patients, target coverage was also improved. Conclusions: In 97% of cases, automatically generated plans were selected for treatment because of the superior quality. Apart from the improved plan quality, automatic plan generation is economically attractive because of the reduced workload.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

A block matching-based registration algorithm for localization of locally advanced lung tumors

Purpose: To implement and evaluate a block matching-based registration (BMR) algorithm for locally advanced lung tumor localization during image-guided radiotherapy. Methods: Small (1 cm{sup 3}), nonoverlapping image subvolumes (“blocks”) were automatically identified on the planning image to cover the tumor surface using a measure of the local intensity gradient. Blocks were independently and automatically registered to the on-treatment image using a rigid transform. To improve speed and robustness, registrations were performed iteratively from coarse to fine image resolution. At each resolution, all block displacements having a near-maximum similarity score were stored. From this list, a single displacement vector for each block was iteratively selected which maximized the consistency of displacement vectors across immediately neighboring blocks. These selected displacements were regularized using a median filter before proceeding to registrations at finer image resolutions. After evaluating all image resolutions, the global rigid transform of the on-treatment image was computed using a Procrustes analysis, providing the couch shift for patient setup correction. This algorithm was evaluated for 18 locally advanced lung cancer patients, each with 4–7 weekly on-treatment computed tomography scans having physician-delineated gross tumor volumes. Volume overlap (VO) and border displacement errors (BDE) were calculated relative to the nominal physician-identified targets to establish residual error after registration. Results: Implementation of multiresolution registration improved block matching accuracy by 39% compared to registration using only the full resolution images. By also considering multiple potential displacements per block, initial errors were reduced by 65%. Using the final implementation of the BMR algorithm, VO was significantly improved from 77% ± 21% (range: 0%–100%) in the initial bony alignment to 91% ± 8% (range: 56%–100%;p < 0.001). Left-right, anterior-posterior, and superior-inferior systematic BDE were 3.2, 2.4, and 4.4 mm, respectively, with random BDE of 2.4, 2.1, and 2.7 mm. Margins required to include both localization and delineation uncertainties ranged from 5.0 to 11.7 mm, an average of 40% less than required for bony alignment. Conclusions: BMR is a promising approach for automatic lung tumor localization. Further evaluation is warranted to assess the accuracy and robustness of BMR against other potential localization strategies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Using the Metropolis algorithm to explore the loss surface of a recurrent neural network

In the limit of small trial moves the Metropolis Monte Carlo algorithm is equivalent to gradient descent on the energy function in the presence of Gaussian white noise. This observation was originally used to demonstrate a correspondence between Metropolis Monte Carlo moves of model molecules and overdamped Langevin dynamics, but it also applies in the context of training a neural network: making small random changes to the weights of a neural network, accepted with the Metropolis probability, with the loss function playing the role of energy, has the same effect as training by explicit gradient descent in the presence of Gaussian white noise. We explore this correspondence in the context of a simple recurrent neural network. We also explore regimes in which this correspondence breaks down, where the gradient of the loss function becomes very large or small. In these regimes the Metropolis algorithm can still effect training, and so can be used as a probe of the loss function of a neural network in regimes in which gradient descent struggles. We also show that training can be accelerated by making purposely-designed Monte Carlo trial moves of neural-network weights.

Casert, Corneel↗

First-order nonadiabatic coupling matrix elements between excited states: A Lagrangian formulation at the CIS, RPA, TD-HF, and TD-DFT levels

Analytic expressions for the first-order nonadiabatic coupling matrix elements between electronically excited states are first formulated exactly via both time-independent equation of motion and time-dependent response theory, and are then approximated at the configuration interaction singles, particle-hole/particle-particle random phase approximation, and time-dependent density functional theory/Hartree-Fock levels of theory. Note that, to get the Pulay terms arising from the derivatives of basis functions, the standard response theory designed for electronic perturbations has to be extended to nuclear derivatives. The results are further recast into a Lagrangian form that is similar to that for excited-state energy gradients and allows to use atomic orbital based direct algorithms for large molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗