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At least 883 records · Page 49

Growth of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Observations and a Seasonal Convection-Permitting Simulation over Argentina

Abstract A 6.5-month, convection-permitting simulation is conducted over Argentina covering the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations and Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (RELAMPAGO-CACTI) field campaign and is compared with observations to evaluate mesoscale convective system (MCS) growth prediction. Observed and simulated MCSs are consistently identified, tracked, and separated into growth, mature, and decay stages using top-of-the-atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface rainfall. Simulated MCS number, lifetime, seasonal and diurnal cycles, and various cloud-shield characteristics including growth rate are similar to those observed. However, the simulation produces smaller rainfall areas, greater proportions of heavy rainfall, and faster system propagations. Rainfall area is significantly underestimated for long-lived MCSs but not for shorter-lived MCSs, and rain rates are always overestimated. These differences result from a combination of model and satellite retrieval biases, in which simulated MCS rain rates are shifted from light to heavy, while satellite-retrieved rainfall is too frequent relative to rain gauge estimates. However, the simulation reproduces satellite-retrieved MCS cloud-shield evolution well, supporting its usage to examine environmental controls on MCS growth. MCS initiation locations are associated with removal of convective inhibition more than maximized low-level moisture convergence or instability. Rapid growth is associated with a stronger upper-level jet (ULJ) and a deeper northwestern Argentinean low that causes a stronger northerly low-level jet (LLJ), increasing heat and moisture fluxes, low-level vertical wind shear, baroclinicity, and instability. Sustained growth corresponds to similar LLJ, baroclinicity, and instability conditions but is less sensitive to the ULJ, large-scale vertical motion, or low-level shear. Growth sustenance controls MCS maximum extent more than growth rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2D numerical simulation of unsteady flows for large scale floods prediction in real time

The challenge of finding a compromise between computational time and level of accuracy and robustness has traditionally expanded the use simplified models rather than full two-dimensional (2D) models for flood simulation. This work presents a GPU accelerated 2D shallow water model for the simulation of flood events in real time. In particular, an explicit first-order finite volume scheme is detailed to control the numerical instabilities that are likely to appear when used in complex topography. The model is first validated with the benchmark test case of the Toce River (Italy) and numerical fixes are demonstrated to be necessary. The model is next applied to reproduce real events in a reach of the Ebro River (Spain) in order to compare simulation results with field data. The second case deals with a large domain (744 km 2 ) and long flood duration (up to 20 days) allowing an analysis of the performance and speed-up achieved by different GPU devices. We report the high values of fit between observed and simulated results as well as the computational times achieved are encouraging to propose the use of the model as forecasting system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Physics Coupled Seismic Safety Analysis of Molten-Salt Reactors

Pool-type Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are a promising advanced nuclear reactor concept relying on passive physical behavior to provide increased safety characteristics. The high heat capacity, high boiling point, unpressurized liquid salt contains the nuclear fuel and as it passes through the vessel achieves criticality and produces nuclear power. The salt then carries away the heat produced along with the delayed neutron precursors towards heat exchangers and primary pumps before entering the core. This forms a highly coupled multiphysics problem between neutronics and fluid flow, which makes modeling these reactors challenging. The safety/licensing case heavily relies on modeling and simulation to prove their safety, and significant effort has been expanded by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to develop the appropriate simulation tools. Their safety/licensing will require a thorough analysis of their behavior during earthquake-based transients. Earthquakes are a transient condition commonly experienced in many regions, and are safely survived by dozens of reactors every year. Nonetheless, significant conservatisms were introduced with limited predictive modeling and simulation available. The first-of-a-kind capability developed by this research will allow for engineers to analyze ranges of design-basis and beyond-design basis accident scenarios to assess the integrity of the reactor vessel and surrounding system, possibly allowing for limiting the costly conservatisms in the design. This projects uses MASTODON, Griffin, and Pronghorn in the NEAMS ecosystem to model the coupled multiphysics problem posed by an earthquake in a molten salt reactor. It marches through a number of number of coupling schemes, from uncoupled simulations to tightly two-way coupled simulations. The appropriate level of coupling for these simulations will then be determined based on the accuracy in the quantities of interest (QoI) and computational effort involved in each scheme. The QoIs chosen for this paper include the mass flow rate across the heat exchanger (for Pronghorn simulations), power output of the reactor (for Griffin simulations), and the maximum Von Mises stress (for MASTODON simulations). This summary paper reports on the current progress of this project, with 2D tightly coupled multiphysics results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Circuit Modelling of the Mechanical-Motion-Rectifier for Electrical Simulation of Ocean Wave Power Take-off

As is the case with several other mechanical power takeoffs (PTOs), the mechanical-motion-rectifier (MMR) based PTO consists of components such as one-way clutches, gears, a ball screw, mechanical couplings, and a generator. Equivalent circuit models have been created in this paper to describe the dry frictions, viscous damping, and mechanical compliances in these components, so the non-ideal efficiency and nonlinear force of the PTO can be predicted in electrical simulations by integrating these sub-circuit models. The circuit model is simplified, and its parameters are categorized as dc and ac unknowns. The dc and ac tests on the PTO are performed sequentially to extract two sets of parameters through linear regression or nonlinear curve fitting. Then, the model is validated through its prediction capability over 25 test conditions on input forces, output voltages, and efficiencies, with correlation coefficients of 0.9, 0.98, and 0.981, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning models to improve streamflow prediction under changing climate and environmental conditions

Machine learning (ML) models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in streamflow prediction and are increasingly being used by the hydrological research community. However, most of these applications do not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). ML models are data driven and can suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to changing climate/environmental conditions. UQ is required to quantify the influence of data noises on model predictions and avoid overconfident projections in extrapolation. In this work, we integrate a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, with LSTM networks for streamflow prediction. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks. It can precisely quantify the predictive uncertainty caused by the data noise and identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a non-stationary condition to avoid overconfident predictions. We apply the PI3NN-LSTM method in the snow-dominant East River Watershed in the western US and in the rain-driven Walker Branch Watershed in the southeastern US. Results indicate that for the prediction data which have similar features as the training data, PI3NN precisely quantifies the predictive uncertainty with the desired confidence level; and for the OOD data where the LSTM network fails to make accurate predictions, PI3NN produces a reasonably large uncertainty indicating that the results are not trustworthy and should avoid overconfidence. PI3NN is computationally efficient, robust in performance, and generalizable to various network structures and data with no distributional assumptions. It can be broadly applied in ML-based hydrological simulations for credible prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Demonstration of Advanced Experimental and Theoretical Characterization of Hydrogen Dynamics and Associated Behavior in Advanced Reactors

Advanced materials development, manufacturing, and modeling capabilities for innovative reactor designs support nuclear security and mission-focused science through enhanced technology for safer and more efficient and secure production of nuclear energy. The research in this project has established: 1) a state-of-the-art neutron-based hydrogen mapping and cross-section measurement capability as well as detailed crystallographic characterization of hydrogen atoms at LANSCE, and 2) a multi-physics framework for simulating behavior of moderator materials and other material performance in advanced nuclear reactors. Through the course of this project, we successfully developed and demonstrated measurement techniques for hydrogen distribution and atomistic-scale behavior of hydrogen atoms using pulsed neutron techniques. In parallel, advanced multi-physics simulation tools to predict the behavior of hydrogen atoms, e.g. in a moderator for a nuclear reactor, through materials performance, neutron transport, and thermal mechanical behavior were enhanced. Multi-discipline areas across the laboratory were involved in the project as the integration of improved experimental capabilities with enhanced modeling and simulation through MST, NEN, SIGMA, and XCP division subject matter experts.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

LES of HCCI combustion of iso-octane/air in a flat-piston rapid compression machine

Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) engines promise better efficiency and cleaner emissions than conventional piston engines, but can be challenging to control. Rapid compression machines (RCM) provide a simplified configuration for investigating HCCI combustion behavior, which is necessary for effective control of engine ignition timing and peak pressures. Here, in this study, we assess the utility of large eddy simulations (LES) for predicting HCCI combustion in a 3-D configuration. To this end, LES with finite-rate chemistry employing a 99-species iso-octane/air mechanism of two RCM operating conditions are performed. The RCM configuration under consideration was designed by Strozzi et al. with a flat piston to introduce large amounts of thermal stratification representative of realistic HCCI engine conditions, through the generation of corner vortices. It is shown that the simulation provides reasonable agreement with temperature fluctuations (7% difference), as well as ignition delay in the short ignition case (1 ms difference), while the long ignition case (35 ms difference) highlights more substantial deficiencies that are still within the expected uncertainty from the employed chemical mechanism. Flame propagation modes predicted by LES agree with experimental observations: spontaneous ignition is seen in the short ignition case, while deflagration is more prominent in the long ignition case. Analysis of global and local quantities classify the short ignition case in a mixed ignition regime, and the long ignition case in the mild ignition regime. These results demonstrate the utility of FRC-LES for investigations of multimode combustion regimes of HCCI combustion in a 3-D configuration.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

aphBO-2GP-3B: a budgeted asynchronous parallel multi-acquisition functions for constrained Bayesian optimization on high-performing computing architecture

High-fidelity complex engineering simulations are often predictive, but also computationally expensive and often require substantial computational efforts. The mitigation of computational burden is usually enabled through parallelism in high-performance cluster (HPC) architecture. Optimization problems associated with these applications is a challenging problem due to the high computational cost of the high-fidelity simulations. In this paper, an asynchronous parallel constrained Bayesian optimization method is proposed to efficiently solve the computationally expensive simulation-based optimization problems on the HPC platform, with a budgeted computational resource, where the maximum number of simulations is a constant. The advantage of this method are three-fold. Firstly, the efficiency of the Bayesian optimization is improved, where multiple input locations are evaluated parallel in an asynchronous manner to accelerate the optimization convergence with respect to physical runtime. This efficiency feature is further improved so that when each of the inputs is finished, another input is queried without waiting for the whole batch to complete. Second, the proposed method can handle both known and unknown constraints. Third, the proposed method samples several acquisition functions based on their rewards using a modified GP-Hedge scheme. The proposed framework is termed aphBO-2GP-3B, which means asynchronous parallel hedge Bayesian optimization with two Gaussian processes and three batches. The numerical performance of the proposed framework aphBO-2GP-3B is comprehensively benchmarked using 16 numerical examples, compared against other 6 parallel Bayesian optimization variants and 1 parallel Monte Carlo as a baseline, and demonstrated using two real-world high-fidelity expensive industrial applications. The first engineering application is based on finite element analysis (FEA) and the second one is based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Toward machine-learning-assisted PW-class high-repetition-rate experiments with solid targets

We present progress in utilizing a machine learning (ML) assisted optimization framework to study the trends in a parameter space defined by spectrally shaped, high-intensity, petawatt-class (8 J, 45 fs) laser pulses interacting with solid targets and give the first simulation-based overview of predicted trends. A neural network (NN) incorporating uncertainty quantification is trained to predict the number of hot electrons generated by the laser–target interaction as a function of pulse shaping parameters. The predictions of this NN serve as the basis function for a Bayesian optimization framework to navigate this space. For post-experimental evaluation, we compare two separate neural network (NN) models. One is based solely on data from experiments, and the other is trained only on ensemble particle-in-cell simulations. Reviewing the predicted and observed trends across the experiment-capable laser parameter search space, we find that both ML models predict a maximal increase in hot electron generation at a level of approximately 12%–18%; however, no statistically significant enhancement was observed in experiments. On direct comparison of the NN models, the average discrepancy is 8.5%, with a maximum of 30%. Since shot-to-shot fluctuations in experiments affect the observations, we evaluate the behavior of our optimization framework by performing virtual experiments that vary the number of repeated observations and the noise levels. Here, we discuss the implications of such a framework for future autonomous exploration platforms in high-repetition-rate experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerant supermarket refrigeration system modeling and its application

As an environmentally friendly low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerant, Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has continuously gained popularity and research attention as alternative refrigerant for supermarket refrigeration system. In this paper, to fulfill the increasing need of accurate Low-GWP supermarket refrigeration models for development of supervisory level control and optimization strategies, a high fidelity model is developed for CO 2 transcritical supermarket refrigeration system which includes compressor rack of low temperature (LT) compressors and medium temperature (MT) compressors, air-cooled gas cooler, evaporator, expansion valves and other auxiliary equipment. A resistance-capacity model structure is proposed to simulate the display cases. Semi-thermodynamic models are proposed to estimate reciprocating compressors volumetric efficiency and power consumption. Furthermore the zone modeling approach is used for evaporator simulation, and air-cooled gas cooler is modeled with distributed modeling method. The expansion valve simulation is based on orifice flow model. To calibrate these models, both manufacture performance data and experimental data are used. The experiments are conducted with a full instrumental CO 2 supermarket refrigeration system installed in Oak Ridge National Lab Flexible Research Platform (FRP). The simulation model can predict the system performance, including power consumption, cooling capacity, mass flow rate, temperature, and pressure, with high accuracy (within ±4%) compared to experimental data. In addition, this developed model has been used to create the system optimum high side pressure for high side expansion valve control, and to generate wide operating range simulation data for developing the batter-equivalent commercial refrigeration system model which can be used in grid interactive control development.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Vacuum Drying Study of Simulated Failed Nuclear Fuel (FY23)

This report documents work performed under the Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition’s (SFWD’s) Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology program for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE). This work was performed to fulfill Level 4 milestone M4SF-23OR010203013. Over the 70 years of light-water reactor (LWR) operation, fuel rod failures have occurred during reactor operation. Based on the Unified Database that SFWD maintains, there are ~5,400 LWR fuel rods that developed leaks during reactor operation of the >19 million rods operated. The Unified Database indicates that ~4,200 of these rods remain in the spent fuel pool, and ~1,200 are in dry storage canisters. It is expected that all failed rods are “waterlogged” in the spent fuel pool, meaning the inside of the rods contain some volume of water. There are two related objectives of this work. The first is to develop a simple and inexpensive experiment to better understand removal of water from inside failed spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods, and the second is to develop a model to predict drying of simulated failed fuel in the simple experiment. Once a model captures the phenomenon in the simple experiment, it can be extended to predict drying under more prototypical conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Comparing the Expense and Accuracy of Methods to Simulate Atomic Vibrations in Rubrene

Atomic vibrations can inform about materials properties from hole transport in organic semiconductors to correlated disorder in metal–organic frameworks. Currently, there are several methods for predicting these vibrations using simulations, but the accuracy–efficiency tradeoffs have not been examined in depth. In this work, rubrene is used as a model system to predict atomic vibrational properties using six different simulation methods: density functional theory, density functional tight binding, density functional tight binding with a Chebyshev polynomial-based correction, a trained machine learning model, a pretrained machine learning model called ANI-1, and a classical forcefield model. The accuracy of each method is evaluated by comparison to the experimental inelastic neutron scattering spectrum. All methods discussed here show some accuracy across a wide energy region, though the Chebyshev-corrected tight-binding method showed the optimal combination of high accuracy with low expense. We then offer broad simulation guidelines to yield efficient, accurate results for inelastic neutron scattering spectrum prediction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Role of poloidal E × B drift in divertor heat transport in DIII‐D

Abstract Simulations for DIII‐D high confinement mode plasmas with the multifluid code UEDGE show a strong role of poloidal E × B drifts on divertor heat transport, challenging the paradigm of conduction‐limited scrape‐off layer (SOL) transport. While simulations with reduced drift magnitude are well aligned with the assumption that electron heat conduction dominates the SOL heat transport, simulations with drifts predict that the poloidal convective E × B heat transport dominates over electron heat conduction in both attached and detached conditions. As poloidal E × B flow propagates across magnetic field lines, poloidal transport with shallow magnetic pitch angles can reach values that are of the same order as would be provided by sonic flows parallel to the field lines. These flows can lead to strong convection‐dominated divertor heat transport, increasing the poloidal volume of radiative power front, consistent with previous measurements at DIII‐D. Due to these convective flows, the Lengyel integral approach, assuming zero convective fraction, is expected to provide a pessimistic estimate for the radiative capability of impurities in the divertor. For the DIII‐D simulations shown here, the Lengyel integral approach underestimates the radiated power by a factor of 6, indicating that, for reliable DIII‐D divertor power exhaust predictions, full two‐dimensional (2D) calculations, including drifts, would be necessary.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Large-scale application of free energy perturbation calculations for antibody design

Abstract Alchemical free energy perturbation (FEP) is a rigorous and powerful technique to calculate the free energy difference between distinct chemical systems. Here we report our implementation of automated large-scale FEP calculations, using the Amber software package, to facilitate antibody design and evaluation. In combination with Hamiltonian replica exchange, our FEP simulations aim to predict the effect of mutations on both the binding affinity and the structural stability. Importantly, we incorporate multiple strategies to faithfully estimate the statistical uncertainties in the FEP results. As a case study, we apply our protocols to systematically evaluate variants of the m396 antibody for their conformational stability and their binding affinity to the spike proteins of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2. By properly adjusting relevant parameters, the particle collapse problems in the FEP simulations are avoided. Furthermore, large statistical errors in a small fraction of the FEP calculations are effectively reduced by extending the sampling, such that acceptable statistical uncertainties are achieved for the vast majority of the cases with a modest total computational cost. Finally, our predicted conformational stability for the m396 variants is qualitatively consistent with the experimentally measured melting temperatures. Our work thus demonstrates the applicability of FEP in computational antibody design.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

MaterialsMap: A CALPHAD-based tool to design composition pathways through feasibility map for desired dissimilar materials, demonstrated with resistance spot welding joining of Ag-Al-Cu

Assembly of dissimilar metals can be achieved by different methods, for example, casting, welding, and additive manufacturing (AM). However, undesired phases formed in liquid-phase assembling processes due to solute segregation during solidification diminish mechanical and other properties of the processed parts. In the present work, an open-source software named MaterialsMap, has been developed based on the CALculation of Phase Diagrams (CALPHAD) approach. The primary objective of MaterialsMap is to facilitate the design of an optimal composition pathway for assembling dissimilar alloys with liquid-phases based on the formation of desired and undesired phases along the pathway. In MaterialsMap, equilibrium thermodynamic calculations are used to predict equilibrium phases formed at slow cooling rate, while Scheil-Gulliver simulations are employed to predict non-equilibrium phases formed during rapid cooling. Additionally, by combining these two simulations, MaterialsMap offers a thorough guide for understanding phase formation in various manufacturing processes, assisting users in making informed decisions during material selection and production. As a demonstration of this approach, a compositional pathway was designed from pure Al to pure Cu through Ag using MaterialsMap. The design was experimentally verified using resistance spot welding (RSW).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensitivity of an integrated experiment to uncertainty in the high explosive equations of state

Traditionally, hydrodynamics simulations are performed with a single equation-of-state (EOS) to describe each material. These EOSs typically have a physics-informed functional form with adjustable parameters that are calibrated in order to replicate small-scale data. However, because the calibration data have uncertainty and there are typically inherent degeneracies in fitting the EOS, there are actually multiple EOSs that might be consistent with calibration data. In this work, we perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the reactant and product equations of state for the high explosive PBX 9501 to yield an ensemble of EOSs that match the uncertain small-scale calibration data. We then simulate an experiment of an explosively formed penetrator repeatedly with different EOSs to both validate the UQ analysis and determine the effects of EOS uncertainty on the prediction of quantities of interest in the experiment. In general, we find good agreement between the simulation predictions and the experimental measurements, and we identify an EOS variable that contributes most directly to the spread in the predictions as the EOSs are varied.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Adaptively remeshed multiphysical modeling of resistance forge welding with experimental validation of residual stress fields and measurement processes

Welding processes used in the production of pressure vessels impart residual stresses in the manufactured component. Computational modeling is critical to predicting these residual stress fields and understanding how they interact with notches and flaws to impact pressure vessel durability. Here, in this work, we present a finite element model for a resistance forge weld and validate it using laboratory measurements. Extensive microstructural changes, near-melt temperatures, and large localized deformations along the weld interface pose significant challenges to Lagrangian finite element modeling. The proposed modeling approach overcomes these roadblocks in order to provide a high-fidelity simulation that can predict the residual stress state in the manufactured pressure vessel; a rich microstructural constitutive model accounts for material recrystallization dynamics, a frictional-to-tied contact model is coordinated with the constitutive model to represent interfacial bonding, and adaptive remeshing is employed to alleviate severe mesh distortion. An interrupted-weld approach is applied to the simulation to facilitate comparison to displacement measures. Several techniques are employed for residual stress measurement in order to validate the finite element model: neutron diffraction, the contour method, and the slitting method. Model-measurement comparisons are supplemented with detailed simulations that reflect the configurations of the residual-stress measurement processes themselves. The model results show general agreement with experimental measurements, and we observe some similarities in the features around the weld region. Factors that contribute to model-measurement differences are identified. Finally, we conclude with some discussion of the model development and residual stress measurement strategies, including how to best leverage the efforts put forth here for other weld problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting mesoscale spectral thermal conductivity using advanced deterministic phonon transport techniques

We present a review, demonstration and simulation of phonon transport for the purposes of predicting materials performance at the mesoscale. We focus primarily on the development and implementation of a unified methodology to enable predictive heat transport. We report on the current state of the art as it pertains to deterministic phonon transport methodologies, discussing various topics concerning phonons. In application, we focus on the Self-Adjoint Angular Flux (SAAF) formulation of the Boltzmann transport equation for phonons, and develop the spatial, angular, and material property discretization required to accurately simulate the predictive physics of heat transport in dielectrics. We discuss thermal interfacial resistance and present our formulation of the diffuse mismatch model for simulating phonon interactions at internal boundaries. We have recently developed a deterministic, spectral phonon transport method for predicting effective thermal conductivity ($\kappa_{\textrm{eff}}$), using Bose-Einstein source terms coupled through an average material temperature. In this method, we introduce a closure term to the phonon transport system which acts as a redistribution function for the total energy of the system, and serves as a guide for the amount of non-equilibrium behavior occurring in the system. This method predicts thermal conductivity and equilibrium temperature distributions in homogeneous and heterogeneous materials using data generated by ab initio density functional theory methods. We employ polarization, density of states and full dispersion spectra to resolve thermal conductivity with numerous angular and spatial discretizations. Our implementation utilizes a Richardson iteration on a modified version of the phonon scattering source. The equations associated with this method are solved via a modification of traditional source iteration. We compare the performance of source iteration applied to an existing uncoupled, traditional SAAF method to our new method and comment on the iterative performance of each. We observe ballistic and diffusive phonon scattering as acoustic thickness of the domain changes, and are able to make comparisons between the accuracy and efficiency of both methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗